1. Wasn't Kate in the apartment just before 10.30pm using her phone, just prior to the alleged crying incident?
2. Why would potential burglars have scarpered if they'd gained entry & knew the children had been left on their own? It would make no sense to return in case the children were subsequently being supervised after having been upset.
Alternatively, if no entry had been gained, how would the potential burglars have known the children were on their own?
It is, obviously, not possible to be certain on the points you raise, but, in response I believe a possible counter argument would be:
Point 1)
The phone pings do not locate a phone location accurately, and even if they did they do not prove the owner was near the phone.
A member of the bar staff, Salcedas, indicates the Tapas group left at a time consistent with Mrs Fenn's statement.
He makes a sworn statement: "When asked, he said that they would normally stay at the restaurant until 23.30 - 24.00, although some of them would leave earlier, at about 23.00."
Mrs Fenn also indicated her statement could be corroborated.
None of this is certain, but I'm taking the view that, on the balance of probabilities, the crying occurred and it was Madeleine crying; obviously others may take a different view.
Point 2)
This is a good point.
My belief is that the burglars may have had some knowledge (possibly inside knowledge) or belief that the adults were away from the apartments during the evening, and so they could safely target the apartments.
They were then surprised by the crying and scarpered; they realised later (again possibly with inside knowledge) that the children were being left alone.
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The outline theory is just an extension of the burglary theory, to allow time for planning/surveillance before the actual alledged adbuction.
In other words, instead of the "burglary gone wrong" spontaneous act, there was a planned abduction by local low-level criminals who saw an opportunity.
