Sadie's theory, the watcher and a getaway car.

[Robittybob1]

I think the Rothley briefing precluded that.  Confusion is good   

Just think of the countless hours of police time wasted trying to decipher David's, Matt's and Russell's rogatory statements.

[Brietta]

In my opinion the current discussion has nothing at all to do with the thread topic ... please may we get back to "Sadie's theory".   Thank you.

[sadie]

When they ALL sat down at the table to order would be the best time to do it (everyone is accounted for and nobody should be leaving at that time so that's when you make your move). Matt checked then Gerry checked then Jane checked. I don't believe an abduction would happen with 3 checks within 10 minutes so after a check was not the best time to do it on that constant back and forth night.

p.s. IMO when they were all sat down at the table is when the move was made to remove Madeleine from apartment 5A.

Do you mean in FULL DAYLIGHT ?  The best time to take Madeleine?   I dont think so.  Dusk or dark would be better, and immediately after a check, the best time

[sadie]

This is getting confusing now because the goalposts keep moving.

If someone moved the door, as Gerry testifies, someone was in the apartment before he arrived at 9.05.

On 4th there is no mention of the half open bedroom door; he entered by the front door, looked at the kids, went to the WC and left.
On 10th May he enters by the patio door and now he notices the half open bedroom door. That's why he visually checked that all three children were there. Goes to the WC and leaves.

If Gerry went in by the front door, he would have caught them in the act.
If he used the patio door the watcher would have seen him only as he approached the gate.

If they were sent in immediately after Matthew's listening check, why are they still there?

The theory is evolving as theories should.
 
One person on here has had the same theory for about 4 years now and IMO seems unable to adjust to circumstance changes, even when new facts proven, show it is obvious that she is wrong.

[sadie]

Did Matt move the door/leave it ajar again during his check or did he leave it as he found it - open over 45° - meaning there were only 2 door moves?

One of the videos shows Matt demonstating how he did his check ... and he didn't even reach the bedroom door IIRC.  He saw the twins and didn't go any further ... so had the dirty deed already been done ?

This old computer doesn't do videos as far as I can see, but it might have been the Cutting edge Video
I think this is its address:   
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atfDV7imHHY

[sadie]

So there were no gusts of wind when Matthew did his check,   all that means is that the wind hadn't picked up then nothing more,   he did a quick glance in and was gone.   Though he did say the room was lighter he thought it was the moon.    I beleive the blind and window were open when he did his check.

I am inclined to agree with you Lace.  It may have been the lull before the storm

However any exttra light did not come from the moon because it hadn't risen at that time.

[pathfinder73]

Do yopu mmean in FULL DAYLIGHT ?  The best time to take Madeleine?   I dont think so.  Dusk or dark would be better, and immediately after a check, the best time

They didn't all sit down to order until 9pm. It was not daylight so you are wrong.

Sunset 8:25pm 3 May 2007
https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/@2266934?month=5&year=2007

[sadie]

Well, Sadie believes in her theory, so let's try discussing that, shall we?

Well I believe it is a pretty strong possibility, but I dont KNOW that I am right.

I am open to sensible suggestions.

[sadie]

That is an opinion.

The fact is, the case remains unsolved.

It is a very senior professionals opinion, stephen, based upon facts that we dont know about, because SY and Porto special Madeleine team have not shared info.  ... and they will have progressed.

[sadie]

They didn't all sit down to order until 9pm. It was not daylight so you are wrong.

Sunset 8:25pm 3 May 2007
https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/@2266934?month=5&year=2007

You are correct PFinder.  It was on the dark side of dusk

My mistake, sorry. 

Rather than sunset, I was mistakenly thinking of moonrise time which was somewhere about 10pm.  Twice posted with all the other stats about the weather, but now sadly lost in a miriad of posts

[sadie]

Do you mean in FULL DAYLIGHT ?  The best time to take Madeleine?   I dont think so.  Dusk or dark would be better, and immediately after a check, the best time

So your chart along + my comment above + Matts seeing lightness coming through Madeleines curtains point to an abduction, or Madeleine missing, straight after Gerrys check.  It also lines up perfectly with Jane Tanners sighting of Tannerman.


IMO

[misty]

@Sadie
Was the adult swimming pool area lit up in any way after dark when you visited the Tapas Bar?

[Innominate]

One of the videos shows Matt demonstating how he did his check ... and he didn't even reach the bedroom door IIRC.  He saw the twins and didn't go any further ... so had the dirty deed already been done ?

This old computer doesn't do videos as far as I can see, but it might have been the Cutting edge Video
I think this is its address:   
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atfDV7imHHY

IMO one of the interesting things about this sequence is to look at GMcC, rather than MO.

https://youtu.be/atfDV7imHHY?t=781

and

https://youtu.be/atfDV7imHHY?t=794

It would be interesting if a body language expert could give an opinion (although I'm not sure how accurate body language is!).

My take is that GMcC is not convinced by what MO is saying.

Also from this point https://youtu.be/atfDV7imHHY?t=481

it shows hows easy it is to see out of the shutters if that was a motivation for opening the curtains/ window

(Edited to correct third link)

[sadie]

@Sadie
Was the adult swimming pool area lit up in any way after dark when you visited the Tapas Bar?

It is over seven years since we ate there misty, so memories of some things are a bit wooly.

We arrived in the daylight and had a quick look around the Tapas area facilities.  I was surprised how small the area was.  Robin Crosland, if he were the architect that laid it out,  made a fabulous job of fitting a large anumber of "play" and garden things into such a small area, because altho it was very compact, it didn't feel crowded. 

IIRC, we arrived inn the daylight and left just after darkness fell.   Certainly the area that we had to walk must have been lit.  I fancy the pool was lit too, but probably the other areas were not lit .... but sorry I cant be sure

[misty]

IMO one of the interesting things about this sequence is to look at GMcC, rather than MO.

https://youtu.be/atfDV7imHHY?t=781

and

https://youtu.be/atfDV7imHHY?t=794

It would be interesting if a body language expert could give an opinion (although I'm not sure how accurate body language is!).

My take is that GMcC is not convinced by what MO is saying.

Also from this point https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atfDV7imHHY&feature=youtu.be&t=794

it shows hows easy it is to see out of the shutters if that was a motivation for opening the curtains/ window

Doesn't appear to be the correct link.
Did you mean here https://youtu.be/atfDV7imHHY?t=523   or here https://youtu.be/atfDV7imHHY?t=438 ?

Sorry, I don't like body language analysis so I won't pass comment on Gerry's during those moments.