Sadie's theory, the watcher and a getaway car.

[G-Unit]

When you lower the shutter completely all the slats drop down onto the one below thus closing out all the light.  When you pull the tape slowly the topmost slats lift up letting light in.  The more you pull the more slats rise up until light can come in through every space between the slats.  If you pull even further the slats begin to lift up from the bottom slowly, continued pulling will raise all the slats up until they disappear completely into the roller housing box at the top of the window.

The slats aren't open in this photo though, are they? Perhaps it's my eyes.

[John]

This video might explain it better.

[misty]

The problem is that we are not able to carry out a few experiments in the actual apartment so it is necessary to speculate a little.

It could be auditory, for example to hear someone approaching the front door (if necessary an intruder could exit via the sliding door), or just a general listening check to see if there is anyone about. Another possibility is to get closer to the shutters so it is easier to see through the holes.

Fiona Payne talks about adjusting the shutters in her rogatory:

"And I think we only ever sort of slightly opened, it was one of these shutters where, erm, sort of graded, erm, you can open it a little bit and it just opens up with a few holes to let a little bit of light in but the whole shutter is still actually down. And that's all we ever, we never opened the shutter, we just, we'd open it a bit in the morning to let a bit of light in and then shut it, erm, you know in, in the night-time to the point where it would only have a very minimum bit of light coming in"

How important do you feel the shutter position is if the window was not the point of entry or exit? The reported open window & whooshing curtains could still be consistent with the slats being in the fully open position.
The requirement of visual and/or audial checking of the front exterior of 5A would indicate that the front door was intended to be the point of exit. Either the theoretical intruder had a key or struck lucky that the door was not double-locked. So where would a Watcher have been - not on a balcony in Block 6 imo as per Sadie's theory but somewhere closer & with good visibility of both the starting position of any getaway vehicle & the exit point of 5A?
(I have excluded the use of mobile phones in this speculation)

[misty]

When you lower the shutter completely all the slats drop down onto the one below thus closing out all the light.  When you pull the tape slowly the topmost slats lift up letting light in.  The more you pull the more slats rise up until light can come in through every space between the slats.  If you pull even further the slats begin to lift up from the bottom slowly, continued pulling will raise all the slats up until they disappear completely into the roller housing box at the top of the window.

Ah, right. I've been assuming all along that the slats at the bottom of the shutter were the ones which were slightly open & that is why I couldn't understand how the system worked. Thanks, John.

[Robittybob1]

How important do you feel the shutter position is if the window was not the point of entry or exit? The reported open window & whooshing curtains could still be consistent with the slats being in the fully open position.
The requirement of visual and/or audial checking of the front exterior of 5A would indicate that the front door was intended to be the point of exit. Either the theoretical intruder had a key or struck lucky that the door was not double-locked. So where would a Watcher have been - not on a balcony in Block 6 imo as per Sadie's theory but somewhere closer & with good visibility of both the starting position of any getaway vehicle & the exit point of 5A?
(I have excluded the use of mobile phones in this speculation)

IMO Misty if the Theoretical intruder had a key he would have came and went via the front door, and he could leave the place unforced. and left  locked up.
If he didn't have a key he could enter via the patio window, and leave by the front door provided it was not double locked but they would be unable to fully close it behind him.  You need a key to close that door from the out side. 
So if he entered by the patio door he would plan to leave by the patio because you only need to pull it shut behind him.
With the right amount of planning the window could be left unlocked so a burglar could enter via the shutters and window close them up again and use some device to hold the dead latch back and exit via the front door.  (It would then be an inside job because you would have to really know your apartment).

[barrier]

IMO Misty if the Theoretical intruder had a key he would have came and went via the front door, and he could leave the place unforced. and left  locked up.
If he didn't have a key he could enter via the patio window, and leave by the front door provided it was not double locked but they would be unable to fully close it behind him.  You need a key to close that door from the out side. 
So if he entered by the patio door he would plan to leave by the patio because you only need to pull it shut behind him.
With the right amount of planning the window could be left unlocked so a burglar could enter via the shutters and window close them up again and use some device to hold the dead latch back and exit via the front door.  (It would then be an inside job because you would have to really know your apartment).

My bold,it seems as if by ruling out the supposed burglars the inside jobbie is all but ruled out imo.

[Robittybob1]

My bold,it seems as if by ruling out the supposed burglars the inside jobbie is all but ruled out imo.

As I have explained to Sadie the burglars are ruled out of abducting Madeleine, I wonder if it is possible of ruling them out of waking Madeleine, and the abandoning the job. Matt found her "all quiet" yet something woke her in the next 10 minutes IMO.

[Alice Purjorick]

I get that, Alice - but how do you explain the slats in this shot of shutter on bedroom window in 5A, please?

I can't see it well enough because of the way the light has diffused, a shot from outside would have been better. What is apparent is the light is coming in through appertures rather than  continuous slots.
Unless someone has an "as fitted" drawing or manufacturers detail of the specific shutter that proves differently I'll rest with the "pinned together top and bottom with horizontal pins" because that is the most common configuration for a shutter of that type.
Look in here or google "roller shutter images"
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=roller+shutters+images&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=1Aq2IPgMYqL5hM%253A%252CJmQrmuDX4_UP3M%252C_&usg=__ILg1bBYaklQGjTE9-PcWf07-gb0%3D&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjQ4uzT1N7XAhULLsAKHd0XDyIQ9QEIMTAA#imgrc=1Aq2IPgMYqL5hM:

[sadie]

Who thinks Matthew could see a child breathing in that brown cot?

I think that this photo is an exercise in HIDDEN IN PLAIN SIGHT.  Maybe not deliberately !

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/08/05/article-1041660-022B835300000578-206_468x307.jpg


Showing that the height of the sides of the twins cots was very low.  Use the drawers in the chest to give you an indication

Madeleines bed is approx 2" lower then the top of the second drawer.  The cots are approx 2" higher than the top of the same drawer.


Given that whilst flat 5A  is  decently furnished, the furniture is not expensive,...  Madeleines bed is unlikely to be high off the ground and the sides of the twins cots only about 4" higher.   IMO the photograph that we keep seeing was taken from a lowish level.  See the door handles?   An educated GUESS would have them at 3'0" - 3' 6" off the ground; most probably one metre

Below another view to add perspective to that measurement.  See the door handle just under the lamp ?

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/08/05/article-1041660-022B835900000578-289_468x305.jpg

and the original image that we keep seeing which is giving out false info, or at least info that we haven't understood.

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/P1/01_VOLUME_Ia_Page_14.jpg


Matts eye level would be way higher than the camera height.  He must be almost as tall as Russell who was reported, on here, a few days ago to be 6' 6" tall

His line of sight would be way higher than portrayed in that photo.   My take is that he may well have been able to see both the twins breathing from within the bedroom entrance. 


The fact that he could see them was partially because a light was left on in the sitting room ..., and IMO partially because rather more light than the usual tiny amount was coming in via the window shutters.   
Was there a lull before the storm, so no draughts and no curtains flying ?.

Had the dreaded deed been done and dusted by then?

In the back of my mind there is a vague remembrance of reading that the weather became very gusty later ... and it was at its height about 10pm.    I cannot prove that any more, so believe or disbelieve[/size]
Everything that I have stated is fact, or questions, excepting where I have already indicated that it was my opinion.

[Innominate]

How important do you feel the shutter position is if the window was not the point of entry or exit? The reported open window & whooshing curtains could still be consistent with the slats being in the fully open position.
The requirement of visual and/or audial checking of the front exterior of 5A would indicate that the front door was intended to be the point of exit. Either the theoretical intruder had a key or struck lucky that the door was not double-locked. So where would a Watcher have been - not on a balcony in Block 6 imo as per Sadie's theory but somewhere closer & with good visibility of both the starting position of any getaway vehicle & the exit point of 5A?
(I have excluded the use of mobile phones in this speculation)

With the caveat abduction is a theory and not proven fact (and there are other theories - e.g. tracker dog trail indicating w&w) I would speculate as follows (briefly):

1. If the shutter was pretty much fully raised with the window and curtain open then I would speculate the following scenario:
a) the front door was double locked and the intruder did not have a key
b) MBM was the target
c) the intruder entered via the sliding patio door, I would have expected the patio door to be secured by an intruder
d) the intruder may have subdued MBM - e.g. binding arms/legs, etc.
e) the intruder had an accomplice
f) MBM was passed through the window to the accomplice, who took MBM away possibly without the intruder

g) the possibility is, given lack of fibre evidence on the window frame, that the intruder exited out through the sliding patio door, leaving the patio door unlocked

h) this may indicate the intruder was an insider who had to return to work

===

2.  If the shutter is was not disturbed much then I speculate that the exit point was the front door, but there was a desire to "check the coast is clear" or look out for a getaway vehicle.

But I freely admit the above is speculative at best!

All IMO, etc.

[barrier]

One thing I don't get is if the patio doors were supposed to be the point of entry/exit why bother shutting them behind you if you're not going to bother shutting the window.

[Alice Purjorick]

Ah, right. I've been assuming all along that the slats at the bottom of the shutter were the ones which were slightly open & that is why I couldn't understand how the system worked. Thanks, John.

FYI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hd7IOiOUc4

[Brietta]

IMO Misty if the Theoretical intruder had a key he would have came and went via the front door, and he could leave the place unforced. and left  locked up.
If he didn't have a key he could enter via the patio window, and leave by the front door provided it was not double locked but they would be unable to fully close it behind him.  You need a key to close that door from the out side. 
So if he entered by the patio door he would plan to leave by the patio because you only need to pull it shut behind him.
With the right amount of planning the window could be left unlocked so a burglar could enter via the shutters and window close them up again and use some device to hold the dead latch back and exit via the front door.  (It would then be an inside job because you would have to really know your apartment).

I'm not sure you have it right that the door required a key to pull the door shut from the outside.  I think the lock works on the same principle as a YALE ... pull it behind you and if the snib is not engaged, it locks.

http://madeleinemythsexposed.pbworks.com/w/page/41720163/Analysis%20and%20Rebuttal%20of%20Pat%20Brown%27s%20ebook%20%22Profile%20of%20the%20Disappearance%20of%20Madeleine%20McCann%20%28UPDATE

[Alice Purjorick]

I'm not sure you have it right that the door required a key to pull the door shut from the outside.  I think the lock works on the same principle as a YALE ... pull it behind you and if the snib is not engaged, it locks.

http://madeleinemythsexposed.pbworks.com/w/page/41720163/Analysis%20and%20Rebuttal%20of%20Pat%20Brown%27s%20ebook%20%22Profile%20of%20the%20Disappearance%20of%20Madeleine%20McCann%20%28UPDATE

You think right 

[Robittybob1]

I'm not sure you have it right that the door required a key to pull the door shut from the outside.  I think the lock works on the same principle as a YALE ... pull it behind you and if the snib is not engaged, it locks.

http://madeleinemythsexposed.pbworks.com/w/page/41720163/Analysis%20and%20Rebuttal%20of%20Pat%20Brown%27s%20ebook%20%22Profile%20of%20the%20Disappearance%20of%20Madeleine%20McCann%20%28UPDATE

That is a good photo  - Do you see the rectangular block of metal beside the slip bolt?  There are two bits of metal there but only one arrow.  I think from experience you won't be able to close this door  without the key in the lock as these two pieces will be independent.