Podcasts by Mark Saunokonoko of 9News.

[Robittybob1]

Statistically speaking when a child of Madeleine's age disappears the most likely perpetrators are those close to her; family and friends.

It seems easier to point the finger at the family rather than the friends.

[Erngath]

Statistically speaking when a child of Madeleine's age disappears the most likely perpetrators are those close to her; family and friends.

But there are many, many cases when the perpetrators were not family or friends!

[Venturi Swirl]

OK I have time to kill on the ferry home, so let’s begin.


1. Four couples on holiday one of whom have their child abducted gives us odds that it will be the McCann family of three to one. A statistical fact.
2. After having their child abducted a cadaver dog which has never given a false positive alert in 200 case searches alerts to the McCanns property which gives us odds of two hundred to one. Statistical fact number two.
3. The dog gives 12 separate alerts which gives us odds of eleven to one that they were false alerts given it had never given a false one before hand. Statistical fact number three.
4. Of the three children abducted it,s the one not confined to a cot giving us odds of two to one.  Statistical fact number four.

Calculating those odds is easy peasy. Then you have to multiply those odds by the number of mothers of children who have been abducted who DID answer police questions because we know Kate refused to do so despite the fact her daughter had been abducted.

I have missed out how many fathers of abducted children gave police two completely different versions of the last time they claim to have seen their child alive.


The odds I am afraid are very much against Madeleine having been abducted, statistically speaking.

The Met disagrees with your mathematics. 
Perhaps you’d like to calculate the odds of a nearly 4 year old child coming to harm after being left asleep in a holiday apartment and on discovery of the body it is then hidden by the father never to be found again in 12 plus years? 

[Venturi Swirl]

Statistically speaking when a child of Madeleine's age disappears the most likely perpetrators are those close to her; family and friends.

Tell that to the parents of every child that was ever abducted and murdered by a stranger, I’m sure it will make all the difference. 

[Robittybob1]

OK I have time to kill on the ferry home, so let’s begin.


1. Four couples on holiday one of whom have their child abducted gives us odds that it will be the McCann family of three to one. A statistical fact.
2. After having their child abducted a cadaver dog which has never given a false positive alert in 200 case searches alerts to the McCanns property which gives us odds of two hundred to one. Statistical fact number two.
3. The dog gives 12 separate alerts which gives us odds of eleven to one that they were false alerts given it had never given a false one before hand. Statistical fact number three.
4. Of the three children abducted it,s the one not confined to a cot giving us odds of two to one.  Statistical fact number four.

Calculating those odds is easy peasy. Then you have to multiply those odds by the number of mothers of children who have been abducted who DID answer police questions because we know Kate refused to do so despite the fact her daughter had been abducted.

I have missed out how many fathers of abducted children gave police two completely different versions of the last time they claim to have seen their child alive.


The odds I am afraid are very much against Madeleine having been abducted, statistically speaking.

What gets me is why you include the other Tapas 9 families in your calculations.  Why not include all the families in the town of PdL?  If there was an abductor in town he could select from all the children in the town. 

[Venturi Swirl]

What gets me is why you include the other Tapas 9 families in your calculations.  Why not include all the families in the town of PdL?  If there was an abductor in town he could select from all the children in the town.

I don’t get why the sleeping arrangements have any bearing on the odds either...

[Robittybob1]

I don’t get why the sleeping arrangements have any bearing on the odds either...

"4. Of the three children abducted it,s the one not confined to a cot giving us odds of two to one.  Statistical fact number four."

That is true in itself, two were in a cot and the older one was in a bed, but does that increase or decrease the chances of her being abducted.  Was it a matter of difficulty?

The sleeping arrangement would have some bearing on what happened but it won't be as simple as being in a bed or a cot.

[Robittybob1]

Excuse me, who mentioned sleeping arrangements? There were four families in the group, one of whom claim to have their child abducted. The odds on it being the McCanns are  three to one. Fact.

Who?  You did!  "4. Of the three children abducted it,s the one not confined to a cot giving us odds of two to one.  Statistical fact number four."

2/1 to one are the statistical odds pure and simple.

 

If the abductor is in the room and has a choice of any of the three kids.   But what about if it was a targeted abduction?

[Venturi Swirl]

You asked the odds and I have taken the trouble to point them out to you.

The MET have given us nothing to prove the statistics in this case are wrong. Fact number five.

Funny how you refuse to apply your statistical analysis to the parents dunnit scenario.  Any reason for that?

[Lace]

Excuse me, who mentioned sleeping arrangements? There were four families in the group, one of whom claim to have their child abducted. The odds on it being the McCanns are  three to one. Fact.

They had been observing the McCann family,  it's obvious.   How else would they know the children had been left alone?  They watched the checking of the children through the week,  how they went up to the patio doors,  they knew they must be open as they are locked from the inside.

Can you tell me the odds on a child being taken from her bath?   How did the abductor know the mother had left the child alone?

IMO

[Venturi Swirl]

2/1 to one are the statistical odds pure and simple.

Why haven’t you multiplied your odds by the odds of the Gaspar Statement and the odds of the  twins not waking up on the night and the odds of the  “jemmied shutter” and the odds of the  “impossibility” of JT walking past GMc and JW, and the odds of thr Smithman sighting?  See if  you can’t push it up to several billion to one?

[Venturi Swirl]

If you have exact figures for those odds I will be happy to factor them in?

Why should I supply the odds?  You’re the one making up odds as you go along, you do it.

[Lace]

If you have proof that they were being watched we can deduct those odds?

Proof please?

Check out the statements of those who saw 5a being watched.

[Venturi Swirl]

So you don’t have those odds, we’ll just have to stick with the ones we do have in that case.   

LOL, now let’s have the odds for parental involvement if you please, so we can compare.

[Eleanor]

OK I have time to kill on the ferry home, so let’s begin.


1. Four couples on holiday one of whom have their child abducted gives us odds that it will be the McCann family of three to one. A statistical fact.
2. After having their child abducted a cadaver dog which has never given a false positive alert in 200 case searches alerts to the McCanns property which gives us odds of two hundred to one. Statistical fact number two.
3. The dog gives 12 separate alerts which gives us odds of eleven to one that they were false alerts given it had never given a false one before hand. Statistical fact number three.
4. Of the three children abducted it,s the one not confined to a cot giving us odds of two to one.  Statistical fact number four.

Calculating those odds is easy peasy. Then you have to multiply those odds by the number of mothers of children who have been abducted who DID answer police questions because we know Kate refused to do so despite the fact her daughter had been abducted.

I have missed out how many fathers of abducted children gave police two completely different versions of the last time they claim to have seen their child alive.


The odds I am afraid are very much against Madeleine having been abducted, statistically speaking.

It only takes one.  I don't know what that would do to the odds, but it would scupper everything else.