Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?

[Redblossom]

There is no rational explanation for the little girl disappearing under any circumstances - other than the possibility of her wandering out of the apartment and falling down a hole.

Parents harming or concealing her - not rational. Burglar deciding to steal the girl instead of a wallet or a flat screen TV - not rational. Paedophilia - not rational.

Something happened to her, however irrational that may have been.

So, all possibilities on the table for you? i get your post now, I think, I didnt before which I replied to and deleted.......oh and btw to thnk the parents concealed a body is not irrational its happened dozens and dozens and dozens of times over above a burglar suddenly deciding to turn into a child abductor!

[Sherlock Holmes]

But why?  8-)(--)

Surely if this was the case the kidnapping/abduction from 5A would have been pre planned wouldnt it, and how would anyone know that 5A would be holding 3 children and they would be left unattended.

I am sorry SH, i am missing your point.

Why risk going into an occupied apartment to just check the layout?

I just think IF 5G was broken into with the occupier inside it was a mistake, and they ran out the way they came pretty quickly....although i would have thought it was a funny apartment to break into being on the second floor. Wouldnt someone climbing in a window leave marks?

Also from Carole Tranmars statement her aunt lived at Apartment 20 Waterside Gardens BLOCK 5G.

Again if youread Mrs Fenns neice Carole Tranmer she mentions her aunt lived on the THIRD FLOOR, and in a statement to police she looked down and saw someone leave the FIRST FLOOR APARTMENT BELOW....the night the child was taken. 5A is on the GROUND FLOOR. Eeeeek...head ache lol, wheres my paracetamol lol.


Snips of Carole Tranmers statement:

CT'We were all seated on the terrace, hummm'talking, and I was inclined to look below and this is when I saw someone leave the apartment of the first floor, closing the gate very gently as they were leaving, opening and closing the gate with much caution and in silence. It appeared to me very strange. They looked to one side and the other, shut the gate and walked very quickly downwards. It was at this point that I turned to my aunt and my husband and exclaimed 'That was really very strange'

Mrs Fenns apartment was third floor according to her neice in her statement.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////
DC1485'ground floor... ground floor, first floor'

CT'No, she is the third, I believe that she is on the third floor.

DC1485'Third floor.

CT'There is only one on top, therefore, she is on the third floor, at the end apartment. Once there, you take the elevator or the stairs. There is no other entrance or exit. You go directly to her door. She lives at the end. There is no other access.

DC1485'Therefore, when one leaves the elevator, to which side does one walk, left or right'

CT'You turn left.

DC1485'Sure.

...................................

If you havent read this it is worth a read, as it is confusing.

It sounds as though her aunt was higher then just above 5A.

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/CAROL_TRANMER.htm

Thanks for all that, columbo, though let's accept Red's correction that Mrs Fenn was actually above the McCann's apartment and not higher up as claimed.

I know it is pure speculation what I am saying; I am just curious as to why someone was in Mrs Fenn's apartment in the first place. What do you mean it was a mistake to break in when Mrs Fenn was there?  Why would a burglar assume that the occupant was not there and make that 'mistake'?

Scotland Yard - and others - have emphasised the four-fold increase in burglaries in the vicinity in the few weeks preceding the McCanns' occupying of 5A, and I don't think it is in any way unreasonable to ask if one or more of these intrusions could be connected to Madelein's disappearance.

[Sherlock Holmes]

So, all possibilities on the table for you? i get your post now, I think, I didnt before which I replied to and deleted.......

I really don't know what happened, Red. Sort of back to square one again since bundleman left the stage.

Just wanted to make the point to icabod that if we want to wait for a 'rational' explanation as to what has happened, we'll be waiting a long time.

What rational explanation could there be?

[Sherlock Holmes]

..oh and btw to thnk the parents concealed a body is not irrational its happened dozens and dozens and dozens of times over above a burglar suddenly deciding to turn into a child abductor!

Parents concealing their child's body is statistically significant - but psychologically irrational.

[Redblossom]

I really don't know what happened, Red. Sort of back to square one again since bundleman left the stage.

Just wanted to make the point to icabod that if we want to wait for a 'rational' explanation as to what has happened, we'll be waiting a long time.

What rational explanation could there be?

Theres always a rational explanation for child abductions or alledged ones....the only irrational one is taken by aliens.......next on the  list is disturbed burglars IMO

[Redblossom]

Parents concealing their child's body is statistically significant - but psychologically irrational.

pass......its a fact....what it  means psychologically is neither here nor there surely....it happens.ergo not irrational as an option...seeing as im not on the same wavelength as you will leave it there.....except to say yes Carole Tranmer had no idea whatshe was talking about....another fact

[Sherlock Holmes]

pass......its a fact....what it  means psychologically is neither here nor there surely....it happens.ergo not irrational as an option...seeing as im not on the same wavelength as you will leave it there.....

We are on the same wavelength, Red. I am not expressing myself clearly enough.

People's behavior is irrational, therefore we are not exclusively exploring 'rational' explanations, as icabod claims. Something completely crazy could have happened - and probably did.

BTW I agree with you on aliens and disturbed burglars.

[Redblossom]

We are on the same wavelength, Red. I am not expressing myself clearly enough.

People's behavior is irrational, therefore we are not exclusively exploring 'rational' explanations, as icabod claims. Something completely crazy could have happened - and probably did.

BTW I agree with you on aliens and disturbed burglars.

Ah OK I get you now, thanks, Icab can speak for themselves if they come on later  but what I got from their post was the whole scenario presented by the parents did not seem rational...I dont think they were saying an abduction under any circumstance  is not rational..well,apart from a bloody burglar deciding to be a child abductor!!!

Then again so many more thngs are quite irrational in this case....things that have been touted by the mccanns and the media for years, totally irrational stuff!!!!! and I mean extremely irrational and out there....

Oh well poirot beckons then law and order uk then might be back
 

[pathfinder73]

You examine the crime scene and find there's no evidence of an abductor. No evidence of an abductor or anyone going through the window that was found opened by the mother. You bring the dogs in and they find cadaver scent in the apartment from which the little girl has gone missing. No scent is found in any of the other group apartments. So what do you first conclude? That the little girl could have died in the apartment? So at what time? The father saw her sleeping on his check so is she did die it was probably sometime between 9.10pm and 9.50pm. Just after she was reported missing by the mother, a man was seen carrying a child in a deep sleep, who looked just like the one that went missing, going away from the direction of the apartment and towards the beach. You would think that this could have well been the child with the abductor? Then you would ask, why would an abductor carry a dead or not child away from the apartment on foot and through the streets in full view of possible eye witnesses? Then you conclude that this indeed would not happen and then you start to reassess everything.

[colombosstogey]

Confused wasnt she..even though they visited regularly.....Mrs Fenn was first floor not third.....even if CT called the  ground floor flat the first floor due to its being high on the hill, that would still only make Mrs Fenn second floor...oh well, goes to show how witness statements can be wrong though not a big deal here

I actually thought that myself but it doesnt make sense. She talks of looking OVER THE TOPS of houses and the wonderful sea view etc...hardly a sea view from the FIRST FLOOR surely not marvellous anyway. Now 3rd floor yes.

It would be good to find out exactly what floor number 20 is on.....lol. I did read somewhere Mrs Fenn had 2 apartments there.

But like you say you cant really take much notice of a lot of stuff witnesses say....

[colombosstogey]

You examine the crime scene and find there's no evidence of an abductor. No evidence of an abductor or anyone going through the window that was found opened by the mother. You bring the dogs in and they find cadaver scent in the apartment from which the little girl has gone missing. No scent is found in any of the other group apartments. So what do you first conclude? That the little girl could have died in the apartment? So at what time? The father saw her sleeping on his check so is she did die it was probably sometime between 9.10pm and 9.50pm. Just after she was reported missing by the mother, a man was seen carrying a child in a deep sleep, who looked just like the one that went missing, going away from the direction of the apartment and towards the beach. You would think that this could have well been the child with the abductor? Then you would ask, why would an abductor carry a dead or not child away from the apartment on foot and through the streets in full view of possible eye witnesses? Then you conclude that this indeed would not happen and then you start to reassess everything.

What are the probabilities of an abduction by stranger?  The stats are more or less 85% of children who go missing do so by the hands of parents or relatives or friends.

How many children in that area of Portugal have been proven to be abducted by a stranger? Zero so far.

2 children unsolved, McCann and the German boy since 1994.

So what are the chances of a stranger abduction, pretty slim I would say.

BUT not impossible.

Oh the sentence in bold. This is purely hearsay as it is not corroborated by another witness. Anyone can say I saw my child sleeping.........

but did they?

I try and try to believe abduction, but its the children not waking which bothers me.

The child was known to have a sleeping problem, the night before she was left crying for over an hour and a half.

Why would she just sleep so easily the next night KNOWING her parents would probably leave her.

AGAIN.

No having grandchildren the same age, with sleeping problems, I dont think she would have just gone quietly no way not in my head anyway.....and if she did I am sure noise would have woken her if not someone picking her up out of her bed....

It just goes around in circles for me.

Although I have always felt if she was taken she knew who it was, woke up and was not scared and was told she was being taken to her parents, now that would work for me. Even letting her walk out of the apartment into a waiting car perhaps...or moved into a different apartment etc....

Then my brain thinks she went out on her own looking but the stair gate bothers me, i read a statement about the stair gate had been shut....

Oh poo, head ache.

Then the dogs...

and back full circle again.

I do have a feeling though there will be an arrest before Xmas....

[Sherlock Holmes]

I do have a feeling though there will be an arrest before Xmas....

What makes you say that, columbo? As far as we understand, Scotland Yard have still not finished trawling through the files and are still trying to clarify a lot of basic points.

Perhaps the Portuguese have something we don't know about?

[Apostate]

I'd be very surprised if there's ever any  arrest.

[Wonderfulspam]

What makes you say that, columbo? As far as we understand, Scotland Yard have still not finished trawling through the files and are still trying to clarify a lot of basic points.

Perhaps the Portuguese have something we don't know about?

As far as we understand, Scotland Yard have still not finished trawling through the files and are still trying to clarify a lot of basic points.


So they say, however I think the case has been worked on more than they were letting on.

Anglo Portuguese Liason, Oporto squad etc etc.

I'm not suggesting arrests are imminent or even likely, but I think there has been more going on than we are told.

[Sherlock Holmes]

As far as we understand, Scotland Yard have still not finished trawling through the files and are still trying to clarify a lot of basic points.


So they say, however I think the case has been worked on more than they were letting on.

Anglo Portuguese Liason, Oporto squad etc etc.

I'm not suggesting arrests are imminent or even likely, but I think there has been more going on than we are told.

That's without doubt. I just wondered where specifically columbo got the idea that an arrest could be just around the corner.