Author Topic: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?  (Read 414059 times)

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Offline Sherlock Holmes

Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #225 on: November 25, 2013, 02:00:24 PM »
Reading through this thread put some thoughts into my head.

If Madeleine died in the apartment by the hands of an intruder either accidentally or otherwise, then why would the intruder remove the body?  >@@(*&)

Good question.

The body would hold incriminating forensic evidence against the intruder and would have to be removed.

A pretty far - fetched scenario however.

Offline Sherlock Holmes

Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #226 on: November 25, 2013, 02:04:28 PM »
Yes I saw this when it came on SKY.

What I didnt hear though was him say this:

It was a friend of mine who walked by at the top of the road, there is no way she could have recognised this person....0.50.

And about the robberies.

checked out with management no reports of additional activity in the time surrounding charity collection or with robbery.

6 burglaries couldnt find anything to back that one up.

I thought the one about the sighting very interesting so did he know about it then and if he knew him would he be using the OC creche....?

Does he mean that the real person with the child was a friend, or that his friend was an actor in the reconstruction?

icabodcrane

  • Guest
Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #227 on: November 25, 2013, 03:38:52 PM »
The idea is not of a burglar turned abductor. I have never heard of this either.

But with regard to the spate of robberies on Madeleine's block,  Eamonn Holmes (no relation) mentions gangs of Roumanian and Albanian burglars active in the Algarve (don't know where he is getting his information from other than what he picked up from the time he says he has spent in the area) and speculates that such a gang may have been in operation in the complex. The idea is that the apartments were being cased to get a better idea of layout, in/out etc. for an abduction. Robbers in gangs could easily have connections with people involved in child trafficking and could have been working on an abduction in conjunction with one another. I personally don't see what is far fetched about this at all.

Paul Luckman doesn't give much credence to the claim that there were several burglaries in the complex around that time, saying the complex did not seem to know about it. Perhaps the complex wanted to keep quiet about it, or perhaps he got his facts wrong, or perhaps police did not investigate - probably all three. Scotland Yard however seem to have reason to believe there were burglaries however; they must be getting their information from somewhere. And these alleged burglaries were part of the recent appeal for information. SY must see something significant in getting more information on this.

Why wouldn't any light be shed? The burglars themselves are not going to come forward, but perhaps residents would have something to say. If it is true, as Eamonn Holmes says, that local police there don't take burglaries seriously and don't follow up on them, perhaps there is a lot of potential information here not recorded initially by police.

I'll offer my reasons for thinking the suggestion that the alleged spate of burglaries were  'connected'  to the missing child's disappearance  is  far-fetched

In the first place,  had any abductor involved a gang of immigrant petty thieves in the crime, in any way,  then the the chances of it being solved ( and quickly ) increased exponentially

Quite apart from the 'loose lips sink ships'  risk,  there was a well publicised reward of almost two million euros announced very early on  ...  what are the chances that these  'in the know' petty criminals would stay absolutely silent ?   (  and given that not a single piece of hard evidence has emerged in the last six years,  they would have  to be assumed to have stayed silent )

Then there is the  'casing the apartments'  angle 

Why  ?

Why would any abductor risk involving a number of others merely to have a better idea about the layout of a holiday apartment ?

We are not talking about employing an experienced cat-burglar to obtain the floor plan  for  some sprawling mansion   ...  coming back with a blue-print for every alarm,  every  private guard on duty,  every trip-wire and electronic viewing device  ...  we are talking about a small single floor holiday flat

'Casing'  the place beforehand  ...  especially to the extent of involving others to do it ...   simply wouldn'd be neccessary 


Offline colombosstogey

Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #228 on: November 25, 2013, 04:10:25 PM »
Does he mean that the real person with the child was a friend, or that his friend was an actor in the reconstruction?

Hi SH no i edited it, as I listened to it again and again, as the sound is poor quality.

I believe it was his friend who was used for the reconstruction, and the guy on the video used his telephoto lens, and there was no way anyone could recognise this guy in the dark at 9.15.

Offline colombosstogey

Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #229 on: November 25, 2013, 04:14:59 PM »
Good question.

The body would hold incriminating forensic evidence against the intruder and would have to be removed.
 
A pretty far - fetched scenario however.  Yes totally agree with you SH.

Humm but why would it?

I am assuming as there were no stranger fingerprints found then the burgler was wearing gloves. IF he accidently harmed the child or she got in his way, why would there be forensics? Unless the unspeakable had happened...and even then there night not be forensic to point to someone and if there was the person would have to have their DNA on file.

No I cant see the point to taking the child away if the intent was to burglarise this apartment. Its a huge step to knicking a few passports and a cameral or too, to first degree murder of a minor.


Redblossom

  • Guest
Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #230 on: November 25, 2013, 04:34:58 PM »
Yes I saw this when it came on SKY.

What I didnt hear though was him say this, I think about doing the reconstruction he was using a telephoto lens and It was a friend of mine who walked by at the top of the road, there is no way she could have recognised this person.... 0.50.

He said he was present at a reconstruction with Tanner with the walk by across the road....I believe he is referring to Murat and the van surveillance exercise that Tanner did where Murat was asked to walk across the road and see if Tanner recognised hm as the man she saw on the night.......he said he was at the time using a telescopic lens and didnt know it was actually a good friend of his..... he goes on to say he is pleased that one was knocked out...they were more than likely friends....he says there was no way she could recognise him as (my thoughts) he believes murat wasnt there that night...as he has always said.... He cant have been talking about any actor or the man SY have eliminated.... also why would he be snooping with a long lens on someones reconstruction/documentary..jmo

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #231 on: November 25, 2013, 05:29:29 PM »
Humm but why would it?

I am assuming as there were no stranger fingerprints found then the burgler was wearing gloves. IF he accidently harmed the child or she got in his way, why would there be forensics? Unless the unspeakable had happened...and even then there night not be forensic to point to someone and if there was the person would have to have their DNA on file.

No I cant see the point to taking the child away if the intent was to burglarise this apartment. Its a huge step to knicking a few passports and a cameral or too, to first degree murder of a minor.



Hypothesis - An abductor did kill her and quickly moved her out of the apartment. I don't believe Eddie would have found the cadaver scent. A dead body would have to be in the apartment for a certain amount of time IMO.
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline pegasus

Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #232 on: November 26, 2013, 01:09:33 AM »
Imagine you need money for drugs, and you have done burglaries of tourist apartments before, to get that money.

I already gave a real example of the sort of useful proceeds you might get from a burglary of a tourist apartment here - a couple of phones, a video camera, some money.

What is the first thing you would do. Simple -  decide if anyone is home or not.

OK you see foreign adults leaving an apartment, and as they do so, you see them turning out all lights except one low light in the lounge. Then, outside the only accessible window, you hear silence.

My question is - do you think -
(A) Everyone is out?
(B) Someone is still in?

Remember this is not MI5, this is a simple burglar. Does he think (A)? Or (B)?
« Last Edit: November 26, 2013, 01:13:15 AM by pegasus »

Offline Sherlock Holmes

Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #233 on: November 26, 2013, 01:14:41 AM »
Imagine you need money for drugs, and you have done burglaries of tourist apartments before, to get that money.

I already gave a real example of the sort of useful proceeds you might get from a burglary of a tourist apartment here - a couple of phones, a video camera, some money.

What is the first thing you would do. Simple -  decide if anyone is home or not.

OK you see foreign adults leaving an apartment, and as they do so, you see them turning out all lights except one low light in the lounge. Then, outside the only window accessible without climbing, you hear silence.

My question is - do you think -
(A) Everyone is out?
(B) Someone is still in?

Remember this is not MI5, this is a simple burglar. Does he think (A)? Or (B)?

You might imagine that at such a resort, children were likely to be present.

You would also have been likely to see children, or suggestions that children were  there, if you had been viewing the apartment at any time in addition to the short time prior to when the adults left.

Offline Sherlock Holmes

Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #234 on: November 26, 2013, 01:42:31 AM »
I'll offer my reasons for thinking the suggestion that the alleged spate of burglaries were  'connected'  to the missing child's disappearance  is  far-fetched

In the first place,  had any abductor involved a gang of immigrant petty thieves in the crime, in any way,  then the the chances of it being solved ( and quickly ) increased exponentially

Quite apart from the 'loose lips sink ships'  risk,  there was a well publicised reward of almost two million euros announced very early on  ...  what are the chances that these  'in the know' petty criminals would stay absolutely silent ?   (  and given that not a single piece of hard evidence has emerged in the last six years,  they would have  to be assumed to have stayed silent )

Then there is the  'casing the apartments'  angle 

Why  ?

Why would any abductor risk involving a number of others merely to have a better idea about the layout of a holiday apartment ?

We are not talking about employing an experienced cat-burglar to obtain the floor plan  for  some sprawling mansion   ...  coming back with a blue-print for every alarm,  every  private guard on duty,  every trip-wire and electronic viewing device  ...  we are talking about a small single floor holiday flat

'Casing'  the place beforehand  ...  especially to the extent of involving others to do it ...   simply wouldn'd be neccessary

I don't think it would be a case of a lone abductor invoking the services of burglars for the sake of casing the place. Obviously that would pose significant detection risks and would be of little assistance or need.

I am imagining a single gang of criminals, or criminal organisation of some kind, with different members of the organisation playing different roles, like a production line. The criminals are either individuals who work with each other and do favours when it suits them, or they are a more formal unit. Or possible two 'formal' units (such as a gang of gypsies, and a paedophile ring, for example). Please excuse political incorrectness; just an example.

A paedophile ring - not that I know much of such a thing I admit; I am only imagining this - must have different people doing different jobs. There must be people looking at children; people abducting the children; people doing the transporting; people paying them; the paedophiles themselves - who may be involved in procurement etc or perhaps not. It is a network of many people sometimes extending across different national boundaries.

Such a scenario puts paid to the concern of secrecy. Everyone is criminally involved somehow, therefore everyone keeps quiet. We all understand that there are people in the high echelons in society who are involved in these things and their identity can sometimes remain guarded for decades. If they are exposed it is usually through some uncontrollable event extraneous to the organisation, not because anyone breaks ranks. These peoples' reputations are so important that millions are not enough of an incentive.

Quite what the purpose of the intruders into the apartments was for I don't know, and I can't fully answer the question of why specifically knowing about the other apartments would help them with 5A. Perhaps they were looking at the entry and exit points on the block. 5A wasn't a mansion, but a predator - or even simple burglar - would still need to work out entry and exit points, and not only for the apartment itself but in the block as a whole. I understand that the alley way at the back of the apartments contained some dead ends, for example. An intruder would need more than one escape route in case disturbed.

Perhaps the 'burglars were looking for other children sleeping in their beds. Or perhaps they were looking for hiding places in the building itself in case their escape was blocked or delayed. (There was a strange man reported lurking in the stairwell, for example). Until we know more about the break ins themselves it is hard to say what the reason would be, but the point is that the 'burglars' could well have had some  'higher' purpose.

Offline pegasus

Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #235 on: November 26, 2013, 01:44:15 AM »
If I was a simple burglar I would assume that turning all lights out but one, means no-one is left at home.
Maybe the would-be burglar on 3rd May had a Tardis and read the news and PJ files in advance? If not then where did he get any precedent for assuming someone is still home?

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #236 on: November 26, 2013, 01:44:53 AM »
You might imagine that at such a resort, children were likely to be present.

You would also have been likely to see children, or suggestions that children were  there, if you had been viewing the apartment at any time in addition to the short time prior to when the adults left.

Agreed and there was a lot of comings and goings that night.

8.35 McCann's leave
8.40 Tanner leaves
8.45 Oldfield's leave
8.50 Russell leaves
8.55 Payne's leave
8.58 Matt checks window
9.02 Gerry check
9.10 Tanner check - Gerry outside talking to Jez
9.25 Matt/Russell check
9.35 Tanner check on Russell
9.45 Russell back at tapas
9.50 Kate check

The window of opportunity is not great for an abduction especially if you've been watching all these comings and goings. I think it would put you off by even attempting it.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2013, 01:57:25 AM by pathfinder73 »
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

icabodcrane

  • Guest
Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #237 on: November 26, 2013, 02:07:31 AM »
I don't think it would be a case of a lone abductor invoking the services of burglars for the sake of casing the place. Obviously that would pose significant detection risks and would be of little assistance or need.

I am imagining a single gang of criminals, or criminal organisation of some kind, with different members of the organisation playing different roles, like a production line. The criminals are either individuals who work with each other and do favours when it suits them, or they are a more formal unit. Or possible two 'formal' units (such as a gang of gypsies, and a paedophile ring, for example). Please excuse political incorrectness; just an example.

A paedophile ring - not that I know much of such a thing I admit; I am only imagining this - must have different people doing different jobs. There must be people looking at children; people abducting the children; people doing the transporting; people paying them; the paedophiles themselves - who may be involved in procurement etc or perhaps not. It is a network of many people sometimes extending across different national boundaries.

Such a scenario puts paid to the concern of secrecy. Everyone is criminally involved somehow, therefore everyone keeps quiet. We all understand that there are people in the high echelons in society who are involved in these things and their identity can sometimes remain guarded for decades. If they are exposed it is usually through some uncontrollable event extraneous to the organisation, not because anyone breaks ranks. These peoples' reputations are so important that millions are not enough of an incentive.

Quite what the purpose of the intruders into the apartments was for I don't know, and I can't fully answer the question of why specifically knowing about the other apartments would help them with 5A. Perhaps they were looking at the entry and exit points on the block. 5A wasn't a mansion, but a predator - or even simple burglar - would still need to work out entry and exit points, and not only for the apartment itself but in the block as a whole. I understand that the alley way at the back of the apartments contained some dead ends, for example. An intruder would need more than one escape route in case disturbed.

Perhaps the 'burglars were looking for other children sleeping in their beds. Or perhaps they were looking for hiding places in the building itself in case their escape was blocked or delayed. (There was a strange man reported lurking in the stairwell, for example). Until we know more about the break ins themselves it is hard to say what the reason would be, but the point is that the 'burglars' could well have had some  'higher' purpose.

I could hardly bring myself to finish reading your post Sherlock,  so horrific was the picture you painted

I know you are right when you point out that such people  do  exist in the world,  much as we might wish not to even think of it  ...  and the scenario you pen might   explain a most dreadful fate for the missing  little girl

In truth, I think I am  probably guilty of looking for the  'least'  horrific scenario

The possibility that the child wondered out of the apartment looking for mum and dad  and befell an unpredictable but fatal accident which her parents,   in blind panic and concern for their other children,  rashly  ( and whilst,  understandably,  not of sound mind )  decided to  'cover up' ,  seems so much  'bearable'  to imagine than the horror stories that are the alternatives

That's not fair on the parents of course,  and I understand that  ...  but,  unless there is hard evidence to support it,   I would rather not think that the  little girl met an unspeakable end to her short life at the hands of the kinds of monsters you describe

Offline pegasus

Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #238 on: November 26, 2013, 02:35:56 AM »
Has anyone watched the "Verdade" video? Gonzalo Amaral and Moita Flores are filmed examining the real actual window and shutter, and they claim, based on fingerprint evidence, conclusively that it was KM who opened the window. What do you think about this? Carefully checking all the sources in that video, are GA and MF correct?

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?
« Reply #239 on: November 26, 2013, 02:47:50 AM »
Yes I have come to that same conclusion. I believe a lie was said on the position of the door (MO door position testimony was very important as this was originally supposed to be Kate's check). I believe I know the time Madeleine was moved from the apartment (before the front key was used - another discrepancy) and was later moved a second time and was seen by the Smith family. What I don't know is if anyone else was involved in hiding Madeleine but I'm not sure on that as Smithman was taking a big risk walking through the streets with her. So I think not at the moment but after where he had taken her to then Yes it's possible.

« Last Edit: November 26, 2013, 12:17:16 PM by pathfinder73 »
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.