Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?

[pegasus]

Would he necessarily have seen anyone leave if he was near the front door and they were exiting from the patio side of the apartment?

The knocking on the front door is an optional feature which I am considering only because it happened prior to another nearby apartment burglary. Forget that for now.

The theory is that the man standing immediately outside the window, (who quite reasonably assumes everyone is out):
(1) pulls the shutter up about 0.25 metres (little noise inside room, man can't see in)
(2) slides the east half of the window open (little noise inside room, man can't see in)
(3) reaches in and pulls the shutter operating strap to open shutter fully (very noisy inside room, and when completed man can see into room)

It is obvious what happens next.

The one and only thing required to understand this theory is to realise that the would-be petty thief
thinks that everyone is out.
If you don't agree with that and then the whole theory becomes rubbish.

[misty]

The knocking on the front door is an optional feature which I am considering only because it happened prior to another apartment burglary. Forget that for now.

The theory is that the man standing immediately outside the window:
(1) pulls the shutter up about 0.25 metres (little noise inside room, man can't see in)
(2) slides the east half of the window open (little noise inside room, man can't see in)
(3) reaches in and pulls the shutter operating strap to open shutter fully (very noisy inside room, and when completed man can see into room)

It is obvious what happens next.

No, it's not. Where did Madeleine go?

[Eleanor]

The knocking on the front door is an optional feature which I am considering only because it happened prior to another nearby apartment burglary. Forget that for now.

The theory is that the man standing immediately outside the window, (who quite reasonably assumes everyone is out):
(1) pulls the shutter up about 0.25 metres (little noise inside room, man can't see in)
(2) slides the east half of the window open (little noise inside room, man can't see in)
(3) reaches in and pulls the shutter operating strap to open shutter fully (very noisy inside room, and when completed man can see into room)

It is obvious what happens next.

The one and only thing required to understand this theory is to realise that the would-be petty thief
thinks that everyone is out.
If you don't agree with that and then the whole theory becomes rubbish.

Nothing wrong with Theories.  And you and Pathfinder come up with some really interesting stuff.

Oh, and neither of you take much delight in insulting anyone.

[pegasus]

No, it's not. Where did Madeleine go?

Think it through.
You are a petty thief.
About to climb in to an apartment where you were sure everyone was out, you suddenly see someone moving inside.
What would you do, (1) carry on regardless, or (2) flee?
Fairly obvious isn't it?
Now you are much younger, wake, hear and see someone opening your window shutter.
Which way would you go, (1) towards or (2) away?
Ditto.

IMO 2 2

[misty]

Think it through.
You are a petty thief.
About to climb in to an apartment where you were sure everyone was out, you suddenly see someone moving inside.
What would you do, (1) carry on regardless, or (2) flee?
Fairly obvious isn't it?
Now you are much younger, wake, hear and see someone opening your window shutter.
Which way would you go, (1) towards or (2) away?
Ditto.

IMO 2 2

1) There were net curtains & closed fabric curtains blocking the light from entering the room from outside so the petty thief would not have been able to see the children.
2) That leaves another option - Madeleine awoke,  started crying & that disturbed him.

Madeleine would not have seen someone opening the window & shutter due to the curtains- she would only have heard it.
So, did she flee into her parents' bedroom, screaming for  mum or dad like most children would? On finding her mum & dad missing, would she not have screamed even louder? Yet nobody heard anything - not Mrs Fenn, not the Moyse couple, not Jez, not the Tapas checkers.......

[pegasus]

1) There were net curtains & closed fabric curtains blocking the light from entering the room from outside so the petty thief would not have been able to see the children.

IMO having opened s+w the petty thief would pull curtains aside to have a look at the room he is planning to climb into.

2) That leaves another option - Madeleine awoke,  started crying & that disturbed him.

Agreed on disturbed. But I think maybe by movement. IMO the natural reaction in those circumstances would be to not make noise, but to go into another room, there was a USA "kid home alone in same room as attempted entry" case where the the response was: no cry/scream, go to another room and hide.

Madeleine would not have seen someone opening the window & shutter due to the curtains- she would only have heard it.

Good point, I am not sure about the visual, but the point is if you wake up to someone opening a noisy shutter you are definitely going to hear it, whether you see it or not too is debatable (I think you would), but no matter, the obvious response is the same in either case.

So, did she flee into her parents' bedroom,

I don't know but that's not inconsistent with the instinctive room in other khaisraae cases like the one I referred to.

screaming for  mum or dad like most children would? On finding her mum & dad missing, would she not have screamed even louder? Yet nobody heard anything - not Mrs Fenn, not the Moyse couple, not Jez, not the Tapas checkers.......

Again a good point, but IMO if I wanted to not attract attention I would make as little noise as possible.

[misty]

Aren't you overlooking Madeleine's natural instinct to protect her brother & sister in some way?

[pegasus]

Aren't you overlooking Madeleine's natural instinct to protect her brother & sister in some way?

Another good point, and a nice idea, but IMO the instinctive and optimum reaction and would be to exit room to get help.

[misty]

Another good point, and a nice idea, but IMO the instinctive and optimum reaction and would be to exit room to get help.

Would you just take a look at the forensic officer dusting the shutter in the attached link to C4 news video, behind John Hill at about 1min 50.
http://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t6708-channel-4-news-4th-may-2007

 I know she is probably a few inches shorter than any potential male burglar,  but how easy do you think it would have been to lean in sufficiently through that window and see a child in bed on the opposite side of a darkened room - without leaving any forensic trace on the window sill or curtains? (then very considerately returning the curtains to near enough their original positions before fleeing)

[pegasus]

Would you just take a look at the forensic officer dusting the shutter in the attached link to C4 news video, behind John Hill at about 1min 50.
http://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t6708-channel-4-news-4th-may-2007

 I know she is probably a few inches shorter than any potential male burglar,  but how easy do you think it would have been to lean in sufficiently through that window and see a child in bed on the opposite side of a darkened room - without leaving any forensic trace on the window sill or curtains? (then very considerately returning the curtains to near enough their original positions before fleeing)

1st question thanks I will look and later reply.
2nd question, if you push to a side a curtain in the mid level not moving the top level, then when you release, it falls back to how it was, I tested this.

[misty]

1st question thanks I will look and later reply.
2nd question, if you push to a side a curtain in the mid level not moving the top level, then when you release, it falls back to how it was, I tested this.

Nets are usually one single curtain and difficult to draw easily along a wire or thin rail, so the intruder would have to lift it,  scrunch from the bottom & hold it in one hand whilst separating the large curtains with his other hand.  IMO his arms or upper body would touch the sill in doing so.
Night, Pegasus.
 

[pegasus]

Nets are usually one single curtain and difficult to draw easily along a wire or thin rail, so the intruder would have to lift it,  scrunch from the bottom & hold it in one hand whilst separating the large curtains with his other hand.  IMO his arms or upper body would touch the sill in doing so.
Night, Pegasus.

One hand pushes net and main curtain aside. If its a single net makes no difference. Easy and little force.
Going back to the basic, if a petty thief thinks everyone is out, he will try opening, and if peeps have not insured window lock button is pressed (see two statements of that) then he will open shutter and window successfully.

[sadie]

Interesting analyses.

Well done you guys,
... but as I think I know what happened in the days afterwards, then unless I see glaring errors, I dont think that in this case, I will bother to participate except to say:


Almost certainly the abductor had a key and came in thru the front door ... and Madeleine was carried out that way too


The window was opened for other reasons.  A list of reasons is posted several times elsewhere on Forum [unless whooshed, of course]


Sufficient to say that I believe that Madeleine is still alive .... and I believe that I know who took her (the head honcho, not the guys who did the actual lifting and carrying work ... they are relatively small fry imo)

[stephen25000]

Interesting analyses.

Well done you guys,
... but as I think I know what happened in the days afterwards, then unless I see glaring errors, I dont think that in this case, I will bother to participate except to say:


Almost certainly the abductor had a key and came in thru the front door ... and Madeleine was carried out that way too


The window was opened for other reasons.  A list of reasons is posted several times elsewhere on Forum [unless whooshed, of course]


Sufficient to say that I believe that Madeleine is still alive .... and I believe that I know who took her (the head honcho, not the guys who did the actual lifting and carrying work ... they are relatively small fry imo)

Haven't you got the message yet sadie ?

The 'abduction' is not a fact.

and people like you have the nerve to call me 'stucky' or the equivalent.

[sadie]

Haven't you got the message yet sadie ?

The 'abduction' is not a fact.

and people like you have the nerve to call me 'stucky' or the equivalent.

Now I haven't called you that, or the equivalent, for a long time.  Perhaps I should start again?


I have no doubt, personally, that there was an abduction [unless you want to go into the extremely unlikely scenario that The Mccanns sold Madeleine]

And I base this on things I found out about that happened AFTER the abduction.  None of you have been looking in depth [for 4 years] at where she went afterwards.


You can believe me, or not ... that is up to you.