Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?

[pegasus]

So the child goes to another room... (snip)

Yes my theory is the child goes to another room.
Your theory starts in another room and seems to say everything in the child bedroom is lies and never happened.
So we have got to this "another room" by two different theories.
The difference is - already at this point my theory has explained the open window and the open shutter.

[mercury]

You've clearly never raised children.

You clearly just assume and fabricate and state things as facts when you have NO IDEA not a good track record

[lordpookles]

I'm suggesting that the clue is in the fact that Madeleine was originally under the covers but around half an hour later she was on top of the covers, apparently asleep. She wasn't clutching CC or her blanket when GM saw her, so clearly not feeing insecure or aware her parents were missing at that stage. The door had moved. Had she left her bed, she would have been aware her parents were not there at that stage because of the darkness & absence of noise.
Tidying up & staging was done after Madeleine had been removed from the apartment & passed to an accomplice.

You think if an abduction took place they had time to stage the scene? Seems unlikely given the time frame available... What staging do you think could have taken place?

[carlymichelle]

You clearly just assume and fabricate and state things as facts when you have NO IDEA not a good track record

going by kids i know mercury aged  3  a  CHILD   is not  capable of protecting themselves they have no sense of  danger  because it isnt developed yet    not fully anyway  some make maddie seem older then she was

[pegasus]

going by kids i know mercury aged  3  a  CHILD   is not  capable of protecting themselves they have no sense of  danger  because it isnt developed yet    not fully anyway  some make maddie seem older then she was

A three-year-old is capable of running away from danger.

[mercury]

You think if an abduction took place they had time to stage the scene? Seems unlikely given the time frame available... What staging do you think could have taken place?

There is no time frame though from 5.30 till 10

[lordpookles]

For an abduction to take place I'd imagine there would not be much time to stage anything. I meant from the accepted time frame of an abduction occurring from roughly 9.20ish-10 and the possible 10-20 minutes they would have to do it in...

[mercury]

For an abduction to take place I'd imagine there would not be much time to stage anything. I meant from the accepted time frame of an abduction occurring from roughly 9.20ish-10 and the possible 10-20 minutes they would have to do it in...

No, the staging time starts at 5 30

[misty]

For an abduction to take place I'd imagine there would not be much time to stage anything. I meant from the accepted time frame of an abduction occurring from roughly 9.20ish-10 and the possible 10-20 minutes they would have to do it in...

How long does it take to open a window & straighten a crumpled bed? (and yes, I think the bedding probably was crumpled whilst Madeleine struggled for a short time).

[lordpookles]

Mercury - I mean for it to be an abduction and no parental involvement. Of course 5.30 would be in line with other theories.

Misty - the window bothers me because realistically you would get max 20mins assuming a 10min buffer on either end in case the checkers deviated from their routine and not much time for misdirection/staging and why bother in this case?. The window would make a reasonable amount of noise in that room and whoever was doing the abduction would be shitting it in case the other children woke. Is the window worth raising if on your own? But with an accomplice it makes more sense to me, but still when the window was raised you would have the noise problem of waking the children. TBH I think if abduction is the case someone opening the window from the outside and coaxing the girl over and then pulling her through makes sense to me...they never entered the apartment... If there were 2 of you - why bother opening the window at all if one of you was already inside? Why not just leave via the front door? Window seems like an unnecessary risk in many scenarios to me...

[misty]

Mercury - I mean for it to be an abduction and no parental involvement. Of course 5.30 would be in line with other theories.

Misty - the window bothers me because realistically you would get max 20mins assuming a 10min buffer on either end in case the checkers deviated from their routine and not much time for misdirection/staging and why bother in this case?. The window would make a reasonable amount of noise in that room and whoever was doing the abduction would be shitting it in case the other children woke. Is the window worth raising if on your own? But with an accomplice it makes more sense to me, but still when the window was raised you would have the noise problem of waking the children. TBH I think if abduction is the case someone opening the window from the outside and coaxing the girl over and then pulling her through makes sense to me...they never entered the apartment... If there were 2 of you - why bother opening the window at all if one of you was already inside? Why not just leave via the front door? Window seems like an unnecessary risk in many scenarios to me...

Do you think Madeleine would have been visible to someone peering in through the window from the other side of the room, bearing in mind the small amount of light entering the room and the way the door opened?
The bed is positioned on the window wall in such a way that the foot does not extend lengthways to immediately under the window opening. That would make lifting a child through the window much more difficult.
Reasons for opening the window have been discussed elsewhere, as have reasons for the twins not waking.

[pathfinder73]

Mercury - I mean for it to be an abduction and no parental involvement. Of course 5.30 would be in line with other theories.

Misty - the window bothers me because realistically you would get max 20mins assuming a 10min buffer on either end in case the checkers deviated from their routine and not much time for misdirection/staging and why bother in this case?. The window would make a reasonable amount of noise in that room and whoever was doing the abduction would be shitting it in case the other children woke. Is the window worth raising if on your own? But with an accomplice it makes more sense to me, but still when the window was raised you would have the noise problem of waking the children. TBH I think if abduction is the case someone opening the window from the outside and coaxing the girl over and then pulling her through makes sense to me...they never entered the apartment... If there were 2 of you - why bother opening the window at all if one of you was already inside? Why not just leave via the front door? Window seems like an unnecessary risk in many scenarios to me...

The open window rules out the woke and wandered theory. So why would an abductor rule himself in  It doesn't make any sense never mind noise, risk incriminating oneself (no glove marks lol), time wasting, window facing the world etc. Why an abductor would open it doesn't make any sense if he didn't enter that way - he could take a child quicker than he could open shutters and window.

A predator is the only other credible explanation and that could connect to a lone Smithman and not a team. You would have to investigate everyone who was on the streets that night e.g. the checkers, Jes, tapas diners and compare them to witness efits to get your first suspects in for questioning but the ones who repeat no comment and hide behind lawyers when the going gets tough should be carefully investigated.

[pegasus]

The open window rules out the woke and wandered theory. ...(snip)

No it doesn't rule it out. It makes it more likely..
For example this hypothetical scenario
Burglar thinks everyone is out, opens window and shutter from outside, someone wakes hears and sees this and goes out lounge sliding door.

[pathfinder73]

No it doesn't rule it out. It makes it more likely..
For example this hypothetical scenario
Burglar thinks everyone is out, opens window and shutter from outside, someone wakes hears and sees this and goes out lounge sliding door.

That didn't happen because nobody heard that child. The Moyes were out on their balcony. Fenn would be aware of any noise after Tue but she heard nowt until 10:30 on 3 May. Kate alone in the apartment is not yet screaming and kicking walls but this happens when the police arrive.

[lordpookles]

Do you think Madeleine would have been visible to someone peering in through the window from the other side of the room, bearing in mind the small amount of light entering the room and the way the door opened?
The bed is positioned on the window wall in such a way that the foot does not extend lengthways to immediately under the window opening. That would make lifting a child through the window much more difficult.
Reasons for opening the window have been discussed elsewhere, as have reasons for the twins not waking.

If it was as dark outside as is suspected. The person's eyes would have adjusted to the light, so imo you may be able to see quite well. The cots were quite high up so that could have obstructed the person's view. Although it is likely Madeleine would sit up in bed. The thing is though a potential abductor may not know the layout of the room or what room Madeleine was in, so was just trying to get access through the easiest window. I think picking a child up if they were standing in front of the window and not on the bed wouldn't be too difficult at all for someone fit and strong... depends how much of your upper body was above the window I suppose. I've heard the possible reasons for opening the window before, but I don't find them convincing ie. as a red heron(seems a really risky red heron to set up given noise and other children) and a possible escape route if interrupted. Drugging the children seems unlikely too given the time frame. Who know's though if these are professionals - would have to be someone extremely well organised imo as sounds like a complicated plan to pull off.