Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?

[John]

This thread has now been edited in accordance with forum rules.

[Brietta]

Ok so it looks like everyone is out, there is no sound at the window shutter, but just to be sure imagine he knocks on the front door. No answer. Silence. To the burglar that confirms that there is no-one in.
I'm not making it up - there is another case where that happened.

I know you are not making it up ... there is just about every permutation under the sun out there ... including things which are beyond the comprehension of normal people.

I read tonight about a Spanish burglar who reported his victim to the police because he found a cache of paedophile porn in his haul ... so at least that was one good outcome from breaking the law.

I'm not sure we will ever know exactly why the window and shutter was opened; the one thing we can be sure of is that Madeleine is missing.

The fact she has not been seen for over eight years as far as we know, means someone must have taken her.  Imo that someone is responsible for opening the window and raising the shutter.

[pegasus]

I know you are not making it up ... there is just about every permutation under the sun out there ... including things which are beyond the comprehension of normal people.

I read tonight about a Spanish burglar who reported his victim to the police because he found a cache of paedophile porn in his haul ... so at least that was one good outcome from breaking the law.

I'm not sure we will ever know exactly why the window and shutter was opened; the one thing we can be sure of is that Madeleine is missing.

The fact she has not been seen for over eight years as far as we know, means someone must have taken her.  Imo that someone is responsible for opening the window and raising the shutter.

There you are thinking the same way as both SY and Mr Amaral and almost everyone else IMO in the following respect -
All them are assuming that whoever opened the window and shutter is the same as or is associated with the person who took or hid the child. But IMO they are probably completely unconnected with each other.

[pegasus]

... I'm not sure we will ever know exactly why the window and shutter was opened ...

I think you are making it too complicated.
If a window is opened illicitly, it is almost certainly opened from outside by someone intending to burgle.

[pegasus]

It doesn't matter how completely impossible it appears at first to fit it into a full solution, it is a simple fact that if people find a window open when they get home, it was almost certainly opened from outside by someone intending to burgle.

[G-Unit]

I know you are not making it up ... there is just about every permutation under the sun out there ... including things which are beyond the comprehension of normal people.

I read tonight about a Spanish burglar who reported his victim to the police because he found a cache of paedophile porn in his haul ... so at least that was one good outcome from breaking the law.

I'm not sure we will ever know exactly why the window and shutter was opened; the one thing we can be sure of is that Madeleine is missing.

The fact she has not been seen for over eight years as far as we know, means someone must have taken her.  Imo that someone is responsible for opening the window and raising the shutter.

Almost logical. A more logical statement is 'The fact that she has not been seen for over eight years means that she disappeared on 3rd May 2007. How, who by or why is not yet known'.

[pegasus]

Almost logical. A more logical statement is 'The fact that she has not been seen for over eight years means that she disappeared on 3rd May 2007. How, who by or why is not yet known'.

Nothing and no-one can literally disappear. They can apparently disappear. Or they can disappear from one location by appearing in another.
"Apparently disappeared on 3rd May" is an improvement but still very vague so IMO we need to introduce some geography and state something like this
"disappeared from (insert here some defined room or building or area etc) on the (insert date here)th day of May 2007 by going out of that defined location to another location"

[pegasus]

"Disappeared from her bedroom on 3rd May" is accurate IMO.
But someone will come along and say even that is wrong.

[Carana]

It doesn't matter how completely impossible it appears at first to fit it into a full solution, it is a simple fact that if people find a window open when they get home, it was almost certainly opened from outside by someone intending to burgle.

I am still open to your idea that there was an aborted burglary attempt to enter via the window and that the chlld could wave woken up and moved.

On the other hand, if someone had a duplicate key, making it seem like an aborted burglary via the window to deflect attention from the key is also feasible.

[Brietta]

I think you are making it too complicated.
If a window is opened illicitly, it is almost certainly opened from outside by someone intending to burgle.

Not necessarily, it is possible it could have been carried out from either side.
I think the notion may have been introduced for the simple reason that so many 'experts' vehemently denied that the shutter could be raised from outside and someone could climb through and make their exit carrying a child.

We know better now and have seen it is perfectly possible. 

Similarly there seemed to be a reluctance to accept a key could have been used to gain entry via the wooden door.

I don't think my theory is as complicated as yours which requires the perfect storm ...

• burglar raises shutter and wakens child
• child takes fright and runs
• burglar takes fright and runs in other direction
• child flees ~ carefully closing all behind her
• child vanishes into the night ~ falls down huge hole or drain never to emerge ~ gets injured in a RTA and is carried away by a drunken? driver never to be seen again ~ child runs directly into the arms of a passing paedophile

I think my theory is simplicity itself by comparison.

[pegasus]

I am still open to your idea that there was an aborted burglary attempt to enter via the window and that the chlld could wave woken up and moved.

On the other hand, if someone had a duplicate key, making it seem like an aborted burglary via the window to deflect attention from the key is also feasible.

My theory is that all the burglaries and attempted burglaries in these two blocks, where an opened window was found, were by opening that window from outside.
Your alternate theory is presumably that all those cases were by opening front door with a key followed by opening of a window from inside?

[Brietta]

My theory is that all the burglaries and attempted burglaries in these two blocks, where an opened window was found, were by opening that window from outside.
Your alternate theory is presumably that all those cases were by opening front door with a key followed by opening of a window from inside?

I'm not familiar with statements from anyone who was burgled while staying in the complex.  Mrs Fenn instinctively tried to catch on to the burglar who was in the process of leaving via the window but we do not know how he gained entry ... and the ladies who had been burgled shortly after their arrival thought entry was through the door.

Path of least resistance.
What would arouse more suspicion if seen, someone climbing through a window ... or someone using a key to open a door?

[pegasus]

(snip) ...
Path of least resistance.
What would arouse more suspicion if seen, someone climbing through a window ... or someone using a key to open a door?

In 99.9% of burglaries the burglar does not have a copy of the front door key.
There is absolutely no need to assume the burglar had a key.

[pegasus]

If a burglar thinking everyone was out used a copied key to go in through the front door, he would soon discover to his shock as soon as he looked in the north bedroom that people were in, and he would leave immediately and empty handed through the front door. The window and shutter would certainly still be closed at 10pm, which would mean the witness is lying.

If a burglar with no key, thinking everyone was out opened the shutter and window from outside, he would immediately discover to his shock that people were in, before he even entered, and he would leave immediately empty-handed. The window and shutter would certainly be discovered open at 10pm, which would mean the witness is telling the truth.

Take your pick.

[Brietta]

In 99.9% of burglaries the burglar does not have a copy of the front door key.
There is absolutely no need to assume the burglar had a key.

We are talking holiday apartments here where there was access to keys ... not residential villas.

One of the thoughts for the window being left as it was in the room where Madeleine McCann was sleeping was to detract from the notion a key may have been used.

Indeed, we can see Mr Amaral in his documentary going to some length to reinforce that suggestion.  It is a puzzlement that in the early stages of the investigation two possible means of entry and exit were played down (three I believe, if one takes into account what Mr Amaral says in his book about the difficulty an intruder would have had entering via the less secluded patio door).