Could an intruder have opened the shutter and climbed in the window?

[pegasus]

So where exactly do you think the child was, while the shutter was being opened?

The child was lying on top of the covers.

So you think that while a stranger was opening the shutter from inside, the child was laying on her bed?
Was the child awake or asleep at this moment?
If awake why didn't she run out of the room?
If asleep why did she not get woken by the shutter noise and run out of the room?

[Brietta]

So you think that while a stranger was opening the shutter from inside, the child was laying on her bed?
Was the child awake or asleep at this moment?
If awake why didn't she run out of the room?
If asleep why did she not get woken by the shutter noise and run out of the room?

You have a fixation that the child had to run from the room.

There is no evidence to support that.

There is witness evidence that the child was seen lying on top of the covers apparently asleep at a point in time when there is no evidence to suggest the shutter had as yet been raised.

If as you think she ran, where did she run to? and why was she not found, the burglary attempt having been aborted as you think, I presume Madeleine would have run in one direction while the burglar ran in the other never the twain to meet.
So where is she?

[pegasus]

There is witness evidence that the child was seen lying on top of the covers apparently asleep at a point in time when there is no evidence to suggest the shutter had as yet been raised.

Agreed. So the starting situation just after GM check is simple: child asleep on bed, window closed, shutter closed, door almost closed.
 

You have a fixation that the child had to run from the room.
There is no evidence to support that.

There are two bits of evidence to support that. 1. the almost closed door had been opened. 2. the child was no longer in the room. (see "The Zen of Passing through Doorways" by T. Ockham)

If as you think she ran, where did she run to? and why was she not found, the burglary attempt having been aborted as you think, I presume Madeleine would have run in one direction while the burglar ran in the other never the twain to meet.
So where is she?

Thankyou you have understood the theory very well. Yes opposite directions and burglar plays no further part.  So the starting position is now: window open, shutter open, bedroom door open, child is awake and going out of bedroom doorway. Where to next I don't know, an instinctive place at first anyway might be the other bedroom, but there are other possibilities. The progress made if correct is a total revelation (more fundamental than Mr R's) to this completely different starting position, and IMO from that it should be possible to solve what happens next, I just haven't succeeded yet. Please note that in this theory the resulting incident scene is exactly as described truthfully by the checker at 10pm.

[Brietta]

Agreed. So the starting situation just after GM check is simple: child asleep on bed, window closed, shutter closed, door almost closed.
  There are two bits of evidence to support that. 1. the almost closed door had been opened. 2. the child was no longer in the room. (see "The Zen of Passing through Doorways" by T. Ockham)
Thankyou you have understood the theory very well. Yes opposite directions and burglar plays no further part.  So the starting position is now: window open, shutter open, bedroom door open, child is awake and going out of bedroom doorway. Where to next I don't know, an instinctive place at first anyway might be the other bedroom, but there are other possibilities. The progress made if correct is a total revelation (more fundamental than Mr R's) to this completely different starting position, and IMO from that it should be possible to solve what happens next, I just haven't succeeded yet. Please note that in this theory the resulting incident scene is exactly as described truthfully by the checker at 10pm.

If the child was running in a panic the door would have been thrown wide and either remained wide or bounced back to a more closed position than that in which it was found.

Had she run out of the sliding doors and down the outside stair it is more probable she would have turned to run downhill towards a better lit area than turn to run uphill into a less well lighted place.

It is unlikely she would have run onto the road to be injured by a passing vehicle;  it is unlikely she would have run past the lighted mini reception area;  it is unlikely she would not have been seen at a time when people were returning home with some collecting children from the night crèche.

Is Praia da Luz the type of town where predators lurk on every street corner on the off chance a tot will run out of his\her accommodation and into their hands? 

[misty]

If the child was running in a panic the door would have been thrown wide and either remained wide or bounced back to a more closed position than that in which it was found.

Had she run out of the sliding doors and down the outside stair it is more probable she would have turned to run downhill towards a better lit area than turn to run uphill into a less well lighted place.

It is unlikely she would have run onto the road to be injured by a passing vehicle;  it is unlikely she would have run past the lighted mini reception area;  it is unlikely she would not have been seen at a time when people were returning home with some collecting children from the night crèche.

Is Praia da Luz the type of town where predators lurk on every street corner on the off chance a tot will run out of his\her accommodation and into their hands?

Does PdL have predators lurking on every corner?
The little town of Kendall in Australia had a washing machine engineer implicated in child sexual abuse directly connected to the house from where William Tyrrell disappeared & it now seems the owner of a truck parked directly opposite the house on the same day also has a paedophile conviction.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3249677/William-Tyrrell-breakthrough-Police-investigating-missing-toddler-seize-car-belonging-convicted-child-abuser-person-case.html

Given the number of people who were pointing fingers at each other from the outset, there must have been local knowledge of undesirables in the vicinity.

[pegasus]

(snip).... downhill ...(snip)

Agreed, in the hypothetical scenario of going out the garden gate, the direction taken would be downhill (south), see this theory by expert Mark Williams-Thomas.
"...She found the back patio door was insecure and partly open so she walked out, went down the small flight of steps and out of the gate, turning right down towards the entrance to the resort and the Tapas bar. It was at this point that she was most likely abducted by an opportunistic..."
http://news.sky.com/story/599836/madeleine-my-theories-on-missing-girl

[Brietta]

Does PdL have predators lurking on every corner?
The little town of Kendall in Australia had a washing machine engineer implicated in child sexual abuse directly connected to the house from where William Tyrrell disappeared & it now seems the owner of a truck parked directly opposite the house on the same day also has a paedophile conviction.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3249677/William-Tyrrell-breakthrough-Police-investigating-missing-toddler-seize-car-belonging-convicted-child-abuser-person-case.html

Given the number of people who were pointing fingers at each other from the outset, there must have been local knowledge of undesirables in the vicinity.

Thanks for that update, Misty.  It seems there is no let up in the police investigation for William and yes ... there are a lot of evil people around maybe known to each other and maybe even in collaboration.   

[pegasus]

Step one is to realise this: It looked and sounded like everyone was out.

Step two is look at 5L burglary which Scotland Yard states was entry in through a window (IMO a bedroom window).

Step three is to ask: "If, completely unpredicted by the 5L burglar, on opening the shutter and window of that 5L bedroom he had suddenly seen a child at the other end of that bedroom woken by the shutter noise, what would the burglar have immediately done, and what would the child immediately have done?

[pathfinder73]

"It being 22h03, he turned to alert KATE that it was time for her to go to see the children."

[pegasus]

"It being 22h03, he turned to alert KATE that it was time for her to go to see the children."

IMO at that time in the restaurant (2203 or whenever it was), back at the apartment the window and shutter were in the open positions.

[misty]

IMO at that time in the restaurant (2203 or whenever it was), back at the apartment the window and shutter were in the open positions.

Was the net curtain pushed away from the open window? Speaking from my own experiences, nets are difficult to move very far along a rod or wire when gripping the curtain from the side. I don't think anyone outside the window would have been able to reach the top of the net.

[pegasus]

Was the net curtain pushed away from the open window? Speaking from my own experiences, nets are difficult to move very far along a rod or wire when gripping the curtain from the side. I don't think anyone outside the window would have been able to reach the top of the net.

There is absolutely no need to "open" (slide top along wire or rod) the net curtains, because net curtains provide no resistance to reaching in and operating the shutter strap (which IMO did happen), and would provide no resistance to climbing in (which IMO did not happen).

And back to your comparision on other thread, you were comparing two sober people in a restaurant with two fictional alcoholically comatose people asleep in bed. Why not compare like with like? Relevant to this case, compare two sober adults in a restaurant with two sober adults asleep in bed.

[misty]

There is absolutely no need to do that, because net curtains provide no resistance to reaching in and operating the shutter strap (which IMO did happen), and would provide no resistance to climbing in (which IMO did not happen).

And back to your comparision on other thread, you were comparing two sober people in a restaurant with two completely alcoholically comatose people asleep in bed. Why not compare like with like? Compare two sober adults in a restaurant with two sober adults asleep in bed.

Net curtains plus main curtains are a considerable barrier to a potential intruder, especially one who doesn't know what awaits him underneath the window. In the situation you describe, the intruder could only have heard a child, not seen one, unless the intruder was disturbed by someone approaching in the car park.

Sober adults in bed v sober adults in restaurant :- we have already been made aware of intruders in children's bedrooms while the parents were on the balcony and no sound of entry was heard. I'm not aware as I type how the various intruders left the premises.
If the event occurred at, say, 3am, entry was gained using a key & Madeleine was chloroformed & removed, would the parents have heard anything? I don't know. Many people don't hear anything through their sleep during a house burglary. It would have posed a greater risk for an abductor in those circumstances.
It may have been much more difficult for the parents to demonstrate their innocence, given the lack of forensics and the greater timeframe in which cadaver concealment could have taken place.

[pegasus]

From another thread

(snip) ... I do not think they would have been received any more special treatment had they been asleep in bed - imo it would have been much more difficult for them to have demonstrated their innocence.

This is a very interesting point. Let's imagine the adults had gone to bed early at 8.30pm and were asleep. What would have happened then if someone had opened the child bedroom window and shutter from outside?

[misty]

From another threadThis is a very interesting point. Let's imagine the adults had gone to bed early at 8.30pm and were asleep. What would have happened then if someone had opened the child bedroom window and shutter from outside?

At what time, hypothetically?