I believe she was abducted as Heri does but I do not go with the opportunistic approach as there is evidence that the apartment was being carefully watched. The question as to whether one abductor or more was involved is a difficult one to solve because of a lack of evidence in Praia da Luz but we know that there were gangs operating in Portugal who were snatching children. I also don't go with the abductor carrying a child across town for nearly an hour scenario.
Interesting points, John
1. "Apartment was being carefully watched"
I think Carole Tranmer's suspect and TS's suspect behaviours were too dangerous for a person who would commit a crime hours later, exposing themselves or himself, by entering the Oldfields back gate and stairs, and the another (or the same?) man touching the 5A patio wall and looking inside, the two in daylight. Very near.
Lizelle Marais suspect and Purser suspect (the same?) were far enough 5A. But they (he?) were very near forthcoming Smiths sighting place (in special Lizelle suspect) ... Also Lizelle said he seems to be the same person that the one in Flack's identikit.
Flack's suspect is more important, but he could be a man waiting for someone in the car park. Who knows?
Also (not in the PJ files) is the JW suspect (Kate's book). He was in the same place that Flack suspect. And he was in Rua do Ramalhete also, looking at ...
(1) a possible escape?
(2)
the kindergarten at Ramalhete and Primeiro de Maio streets intersection some 150 meters from there? (3) other?
Most important: the man had also to know that the children were alone after 21:00 to 23:30 approximately... How could he known this?
2. "I also don't go with the abductor carrying a child across town for nearly an hour scenario"
It is very strange to me an abductor would be 35 minutes later at a 5-7 minutes walk
with the child in arms, just walking ... And given that the Smiths had a good approximation of the time (22:00-22:05), I thought Tanner saw the abductor at 21:45- 21:50, and then found that it was possible ...
Heri.