Author Topic: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?  (Read 79043 times)

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Offline Mr Gray

what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« on: June 14, 2019, 08:01:27 PM »
what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 08:44:49 AM by John »

Offline Mr Gray

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2019, 08:19:32 PM »
I have answered you. Hows about we use this figure instead. The number of children who went abroad between Ben Needham going missing and Madeleine McCann being REPORTED missing/1.

could you clarify... i havent seen  aclear answer...the odds of abduction must be quite high

Offline Mr Gray

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2019, 10:24:21 AM »
Ben Needham goes missing/stranger abduction abroad, 1989, Madeleine McCann next goes missing/stranger abduction abroad mid May 2007 = almost 19 years. Lets say conservatively speaking that 3,000,000 children go abroad each year.

Gives us the sum total odds of 3,000,000 x 19 years = 57,000,000/1 that Madeleine was abducted abroad using those statistics, bearing in mind I have been much more conservative about the 3,000,000 children who go abroad each year than professor McCann's own statistics have.

And you wonder why they haven't tracked downed Jimmy. It's easy if you do the maths!  8(0(*

Thanks fir clarifying I can see the mistake you are, making.
You are quoting odds for the risk off any child BEING abducted... As to the odds that Maddie WAS abducted... There, a massive difference

Offline Mr Gray

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2019, 10:28:51 AM »
If I buy a lottery ticket... The odds of me being the winner are 14 million to one... The odds of their being a winner... Are 10 to one on.... That's the difference

Offline Mr Gray

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2019, 10:37:30 AM »
Those are the odds for a UK child being abducted abroad UNLESS!
There any inaccuracies in the dates of the disappearances? Were any other UK children REPORTED missing abroad believed abducted by a stranger in between those dates?

I don't quite know how to break this to you, but Madeleine WAS a child of British nationality.
The odds if Maddie being abducted must be quite high by my logic.... At least 80 %....woke and wandered... 19.999%..
Parental involvement... 0.001%.
All based on the evidence

Offline Mr Gray

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2019, 10:38:56 AM »
45,057,474/1 for the lottery. Using professor McCann's statistics, you can buy TWO winning lottery tickets.

I believe the lottery is around 14 million... I can tell you how to work it out for yourself if you want... Buying two doesn't halve the odds

Offline Angelo222

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2019, 10:55:32 AM »
The odds if Maddie being abducted must be quite high by my logic.... At least 80 %....woke and wandered... 19.999%..
Parental involvement... 0.001%.
All based on the evidence

IMO, woke and wandered and then abducted must feature extremely high.
De troothe has the annoying habit of coming to the surface just when you least expect it!!

Je ne regrette rien!!

Offline Mr Gray

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2019, 10:59:59 AM »
Evidence? Then lets factor the evidence in.

57,000,000/1 x 3/1 that it would be the one family of the four who were not locking their door (allegedly) who had their child abducted giving us the sum total of 228,000,000/1.

 8(0(*

when maddie was left in the aprtment the chances of her being bducted were extremely remote...im sure you will agree...now she is missing the chances that her disappearance is due to abduction is not remote
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 11:25:46 AM by Brietta »

Offline Mr Gray

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2019, 11:05:34 AM »
We're talking about calculating odds here, I don't suppose you could show us your calculation that allowed you to conclude 'at least 80%, 19.999% and you 0.001% could you, please?

you are calcularting the odds of  a child being abducted...not that maddie was abducted..

afaiac...the parents are not suspects and based on the ebvidence and are highly unlikely to be involved...the archiving despatch said woke and wandere was highly unlikely....if there are 3 options and two are highly unlikely the third must be highly likely


Offline Angelo222

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2019, 11:11:22 AM »
when maddie was left in the aprtment the chances of her being bducted were extremely remote...im sure you will agree...now she is missing the chances that her disappearance is due to abduction is not remote

I disagree. There is no evidence of any abduction from the bedroom, there isn't even any evidence the shutter or window were ever opened.
De troothe has the annoying habit of coming to the surface just when you least expect it!!

Je ne regrette rien!!

Offline Angelo222

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2019, 11:12:54 AM »
you are calcularting the odds of  a child being abducted...not that maddie was abducted..

afaiac...the parents are not suspects and based on the ebvidence and are highly unlikely to be involved...the archiving despatch said woke and wandere was highly unlikely....if there are 3 options and two are highly unlikely the third must be highly likely

The archiving despatch is 12 years out of date now.
De troothe has the annoying habit of coming to the surface just when you least expect it!!

Je ne regrette rien!!

Offline Robittybob1

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2019, 11:14:35 AM »
The odds if Maddie being abducted must be quite high by my logic.... At least 80 %....woke and wandered... 19.999%..
Parental involvement... 0.001%.
All based on the evidence
Please explain. 
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 11:28:13 AM by Brietta »
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Offline Robittybob1

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2019, 11:16:20 AM »
I believe the lottery is around 14 million... I can tell you how to work it out for yourself if you want... Buying two doesn't halve the odds
Are you sure? If there were 14 million different combinations, then if you covered all 14 million combinations you would win.  That is why they  do not like some people buying thousands of tickets to improve their chances of winning.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 11:27:44 AM by Robittybob1 »
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Offline The General

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2019, 11:24:00 AM »
Are you sure?
True, but you double your chances of winning.
The 2nd Youngest Member of the Forum

Offline Robittybob1

Re: what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?
« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2019, 11:29:49 AM »
True, but you double your chances of winning.
That is right, and what I was saying.  Each ticket has the same odds, but you've bought two tickets.
Moderation
John has instructed all moderators to take a very strong line with posters who constantly breach the rules of this forum.  This sniping, goading, name calling and other various forms of disruption will cease.