Is the Coronavirus threat being overegged?

[Carana]

from what I understand the other 27% get over it...but not quickly

Not that simple.

It can depend on which country, with which resources,, when preventive measures were taken (or enforced), when early detection, contact-tracing, testing, quarantine / hospitalisation took place of patients and contacts, available beds, PPE (personal protection equipment), staff, the list goes on. Plus, the vulnerability of patients, but also of their contacts.

[Carana]

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

[Wonderfulspam]

Seems I can't even make a sensible suggestion like quarantining only the elderly without receiving a warning.

It's a good job I didn't post my next suggestion for averting the impending recession.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_4J4uor3JE

[Carana]

A problem is that there is a lot of politics behind the scenes (IMO).

Some were downplaying the whole thing for their own reasons; others didn't have the resources (including tests) and were trying to buy time.... long list.

If there is vast testing, and efficient contact-tracing at an early stage, more people are likely to be confirmed positive out of the large sample, than if you test far fewer.

No tests, no sickness, no problem.

If tests are only done on those who are very seriously sick, there is likely to be a higher fatality rate than amongst the whole range.

There are also demographics and cultural factors.

Plus the fact that it's new, and it's a mad scramble to figure out how the hell to manage the medical situation as well as the economic impact. Plus egos, and elections...

[Carana]

A Yes Minister clip...

https://twitter.com/ZoeJardiniere/status/1238146050684264449

[Carana]

A few graphs / graphics, as I think of them...


Acceleration in some countries:
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

China is flattening out, while the UK is further back in time, but accelerating.

How different preventive measures (or none) affect the peak; the red horizontal line is the level of ICU beds. Hint: critical cases need to stay within the capacity of hospitals to care for them.

https://twitter.com/rjbarfield1/status/1239818229532495872

[Robittybob1]

as I posted on another thread:

"What I have been trying is using a 0.5% Hydrogen Peroxide solution intranasally at least 2 pumps per nostril.   There hasn't been any burning or ill effects from this strength.

0.5% is a 1/6 strength of the commonly retailed 3% solution.  I have tried hourly sprays or 4 sprays before and after going out into the community.

I can wash my hands and using this I can wash my nasal passages.   Best of luck."

Does anyone have any comments to make about this?   My son tried a 1% spray and found it slightly burning.  So please don't use full strength (3%) or if you do be careful.   

[Robittybob1]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Thanks, Carana.  Even in Italy only 778 cases per million population.   I'd like to know what percentage of the population has antibodies to the virus.  It seems odd that only about 1/1000th of the population get the disease.

There was some talk of needing a 60% of the population to have antibodies to get sufficient herd immunity.
Does this reflect the level of subclinical cases?

[Eleanor]

We in France are now reduced to one person per car.  This doesn't bother me as I am not going anywhere.

However, my son and my neighbour who both use what is effectively My Car are in discussions over who is going to The Food Bank for me.  I don't care about that either so long as one of them goes.

I don't kiss either of them these days.

The Food Bank is now By Appointment.  Very sensible, I thought.  I instinctively knew that they wouldn't abandon us.  And I am very impressed by their courage.

I did have to have a rather convoluted discussion with the Local Mairie by telephone in French.  My appointment is for 16.45 and I never have been able to get my head around 16 in French.  The rest of the numbers are easy.  It's just that one.  My brain freezes.
In the end she said 16.45 in English.  This was some feat as her English is virtually non existent.

[Carana]

as I posted on another thread:

"What I have been trying is using a 0.5% Hydrogen Peroxide solution intranasally at least 2 pumps per nostril.   There hasn't been any burning or ill effects from this strength.

0.5% is a 1/6 strength of the commonly retailed 3% solution.  I have tried hourly sprays or 4 sprays before and after going out into the community.

I can wash my hands and using this I can wash my nasal passages.   Best of luck."

Does anyone have any comments to make about this?   My son tried a 1% spray and found it slightly burning.  So please don't use full strength (3%) or if you do be careful.

I haven't read anything reliable about nasal sprays. And burning your nose or anything else doesn't sound like a great idea.

Hydrogen peroxide doesn't act against viruses, AFAIK, but the WHO formula for hand sanitizer (intended for dispensaries in the middle of nowhere), does contain some, but to combat any spores present at the time of making the mixture.

The WHO formula:
https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/Guide_to_Local_Production.pdf

Apparently, washing your hands with lathering soap for 20 seconds is more effective (something to do with breaking down the lipid molecules of the virus). Gel is for when you're out and can't wash your hands.

It enters the body via the eyes, nose and mouth. The issue is that we all touch our faces every few seconds (whether we realise it or not) and - aside from someone sneezing or coughing in your immediate proximity, it's our hands that contaminate the eyes, nose and mouth.

It can survive on hard surfaces for a while (opinions vary), hence the need to develop stronger hand cleaning reflexes (opening doors, taps, handrails, cash, cash machines, phones, laptops... everything you can think of).

[Carana]

Thanks, Carana.  Even in Italy only 778 cases per million population.   I'd like to know what percentage of the population has antibodies to the virus.  It seems odd that only about 1/1000th of the population get the disease.

There was some talk of needing a 60% of the population to have antibodies to get sufficient herd immunity.
Does this reflect the level of subclinical cases?

This herd immunity concept is apparently normally in the context of mass vaccination. The "take it on the chin" (and see who survives) idea is something the WHO described as "concerning". (Translate diplobabble into more colourful language, if you prefer.)

Hard to know how many cases there are that are either asymptomatic or mild, as it has escalated so fast and few countries have done large-scale tests so far.

The countries that appear to have got it under control quickly were those who immediately isolated and tested the initial cases, and who traced everyone they'd been in contact with, had them tested and isolated if necessary. That's impossible to do once you're swamped with cases, with inadequate resources.

[Carana]

Thanks, Carana.  Even in Italy only 778 cases per million population.   I'd like to know what percentage of the population has antibodies to the virus.  It seems odd that only about 1/1000th of the population get the disease.

There was some talk of needing a 60% of the population to have antibodies to get sufficient herd immunity.
Does this reflect the level of subclinical cases?

Every country has different levels of resources, though. The north of Italy has good hospitals (I'm told), but even they were suddenly swamped. A large proportion of initial fatalities were the elderly (immune systems naturally diminish with age, apparently) and / or those with one or more underlying health issues. From what I'm reading, they're now getting more younger patients as well.

Very few children seem to have become seriously ill / died, but can pass it on to everyone around them.

[Carana]

Something else I read, but haven't been able to verify, is that while younger people (without major other health issues) may have a greater likelihood of coming out the other end of serious cases, there's a question over long-term lung damage. Probably too early to come to any conclusions.

[Venturi Swirl]

Seems I can't even make a sensible suggestion like quarantining only the elderly without receiving a warning.

It's a good job I didn't post my next suggestion for averting the impending recession.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_4J4uor3JE

Did it involve Nazis and gas chambers?

[Wonderfulspam]

Did it involve Nazis and gas chambers?

No. It involved rounding up the old & unwell & quaranting them elsewhere so that those of us under 40 can go about our daily lives as normal.
But you raise a good point, gas chambers would be one sure way of eradicating the virus & preventing economic collapse.
Raise income tax, lower vat & start pumping gas into Lidl.