Podcasts by Mark Saunokonoko of 9News.

[Robittybob1]

No one is forcing you to join in to our boring conversation. Boring isn’t against the rules is it?

I'm afraid not.  I'm wondering how to reply, maybe I need a Berocca  first.   I'm still drained.

[Venturi Swirl]

That's fine. Illogical that statement may or may not be.
But the very fact that we have those two factors present is remarkable in itself, which is my point.
We have to rely on some incredible odds to explain the factors present - the really unreliable EVRD / DNA evidence that no court in the world would uphold - worse case, couple with the main protagonist giving two disparate accounts of the last time he saw his daughter alive - the most profound moment of his life is not etched in to his soul?
And I use the same quantification to couple together other inexplicable elements.

I can do all of this with impunity because Davel is on a sabbatical and can't rip me to shreds. When he's back I'll scuttle off back in to my sangar, MP5 on knee, made ready, safety on.

What incredible odds?  Have you calculated them?  “Man corrects initial statement regarding which door he gained entry to apartment” coupled with “cadaver dog alerts to places in apartment the man is known to have been two months earlier”.   What would you calculate the odds at of a suspect admitting to a murder and a cadaver dog alerting to the places where the suspect said the murders took place, but the suspect was lying and he actually murdered no one at all?

[Venturi Swirl]

You have 3/1 that the only couple not locking their door get their child abducted, going on to 200/1 that a dog that had never given a false positive alert, going on to 11/1 because there were twelve of them, all going on to 2/1 that it was the one child not confined to a cot that done the vanishing act.

Let’s get the calculator out. A £1 bet gives us a return of, wait for it, £17,600.

That gives us odds of 17599/1 that Madeleine was abducted.
Bearing in mind I have not factored in the odds of how many mothers of abducted children refuse to tell the old bill the truth.

There’s more chance of me winning the lottery than Madeleine being abducted IMO.

The chance of you winning the national lottery is something like 1 in 45 million so by your calcs you’re very much more likely to have your children abducted, sorry to say.

[Lace]

You have 3/1 that the only couple not locking their door get their child abducted, going on to 200/1 that a dog that had never given a false positive alert, going on to 11/1 because there were twelve of them, all going on to 2/1 that it was the one child not confined to a cot that done the vanishing act.

Let’s get the calculator out. A £1 bet gives us a return of, wait for it, £17,600.

That gives us odds of 17599/1 that Madeleine was abducted.
Bearing in mind I have not factored in the odds of how many mothers of abducted children refuse to tell the old bill the truth.

There’s more chance of me winning the lottery than Madeleine being abducted IMO.

I wouldn't bet on it.    Two Police forces are looking for an abductor    IMO

[Carana]

You have 3/1 that the only couple not locking their door get their child abducted, going on to 200/1 that a dog that had never given a false positive alert, going on to 11/1 because there were twelve of them, all going on to 2/1 that it was the one child not confined to a cot that done the vanishing act.

Let’s get the calculator out. A £1 bet gives us a return of, wait for it, £17,600.

That gives us odds of 17599/1 that Madeleine was abducted.
Bearing in mind I have not factored in the odds of how many mothers of abducted children refuse to tell the old bill the truth.

There’s more chance of me winning the lottery than Madeleine being abducted IMO.

Are you saying that in one of every three cases of parents not locking a door a child is abducted?

Or shouldn't one take that seriously?

[Venturi Swirl]

You will find that is slightly less odds than 17599 x the number of mothers of abducted children who refuse to tell the old bill the truth.

Nonsensical.

[Carana]

Absolutely not. Those are the odds, I didn’t make them. And how many mothers of abducted children do tell the old bill the truth? Times that with 17599.

Any bookie will agree.

Where did this "info" originate?

[barrier]

I wouldn't bet on it.    Two Police forces are looking for an abductor    IMO

Pedro Do Carmo isn't of that opinion.They have to be prepared for different scenarios were his words if I recall.

[Carana]

The name is Cheeky Monkey, not John Parrot.

Which doesn't answer my question...

[Venturi Swirl]

Absolutely not. Those are the odds, I didn’t make them. And how many mothers of abducted children do tell the old bill the truth? Times that with 17599.

Any bookie will agree.

So in your opinion the odds of the McCanns NOT being guilty are somewhat smaller than 1 in 45 million?   
PS: what about Gerry?  Did he tell the Old Bill the truth or was it just Kate who didn’t...?

[Venturi Swirl]

The odds are those for Madeleine being abducted. That’s not anyone’s opinion.

What are the odds for “woke and wandered” and “parents hid the body”?

[Robittybob1]

Sorry, what I really meant was, we have to listen to the same old, you ‘hate the way social media has facilitated the abuse of Gerry and Kate McCann, and found it hard to fathom the insensitivity of all those who have posted accusations about them’ mantra day after day.

I have duly corrected my error. Hopefully that cheers you up.

Is that a first for the forum that an apology and a correction has been admitted to in the one post?  Well even if it isn't the first time, congratulations Cheeky Monkey.

[Robittybob1]

You have 3/1 that the only couple not locking their door get their child abducted, going on to 200/1 that a dog that had never given a false positive alert, going on to 11/1 because there were twelve of them, all going on to 2/1 that it was the one child not confined to a cot that done the vanishing act.

Let’s get the calculator out. A £1 bet gives us a return of, wait for it, £17,600.

That gives us odds of 17599/1 that Madeleine was abducted.
Bearing in mind I have not factored in the odds of how many mothers of abducted children do tell the old bill the truth.

There’s more chance of me winning the lottery than Madeleine being abducted IMO.

You wold still have to buy millions of tickets per draw to give yourself odds of 17600:1 of winning the lottery.

[Robittybob1]

The odds for parents hid the body are 1/17599 times the number of mothers who do tell the old bill the truth. Simple! Woke and wandered isn’t in the betting.

Stats have never been a strong point for me.  I'd guest your calculation is wrong but don't ask me to prove it.

[Venturi Swirl]

The odds for parents hid the body are 1/17599 times the number of mothers who do tell the old bill the truth. Simple! Woke and wandered isn’t in the betting.

Simple is the right word.