Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?

[Sherlock Holmes]

Why do you draw silly analogies in order to dismiss Anne's perfectly logical and reasonable question  ? 

Of  course  the circumstances in which children are snatched is important,  and statistics will necessarily reflect that important distinction

How many children  have been abducted  from their bed  ?   

If the number is statistically low  ...  and I would guess it is  infintesimally low  ...  then that is a significant finding to consider

They are purposely silly.

Insisting  that the word 'bed' be part of any reported abduction is not helping us understand the statistics - or anything else. Circumstances are indeed important, but insisting on a bed being involved is making the criteria too narrow.

Just because there are no European examples that we know of of abduction from a bed does not mean that Madeleine cannot be abducted - but this seems at times  to be being implied.

It is a perversity of logic - hence my 'silly ' comparisons.

[icabodcrane]

They are purposely silly.

Insisting  that the word 'bed' be part of any reported abduction is not helping us understand the statistics - or anything else. Circumstances are indeed important, but insisting on a bed being involved is making the criteria too narrow.

Just because there are no European examples that we know of of abduction from a bed does not mean that Madeleine cannot be abducted - but this seems at times  to be being implied.

It is a perversity of logic - hence my 'silly ' comparisons.

So statistics of children who were abducted  ,  but NOT  from their beds,  can be presented as relevant to Madeleine McCann 

Whilst statistics of children who  were  abducted from their beds  are  not  necessary because they  are NOT relevant to Madeleine McCann  ?

Pervese logic indeed   

[Benice]

Why do you draw silly analogies in order to dismiss Anne's perfectly logical and reasonable question  ? 

Of  course  the circumstances in which children are snatched is important,  and statistics will necessarily reflect that important distinction

How many children  have been abducted  from their bed  ?   

If the number is statistically low  ...  and I would guess it is  infintesimally low  ...  then that is a significant finding to consider

A perfectly appropriate analogy IMO.       We are being asked to believe that if there  is no a record of another child ever being taken from her bed then it's not possible Madeleine was.    Now that is silly.    What about the little girl taken from her bath?  Are we saying that can't be true because we know of no other identical cases?

What is even sillier IMO is the idea that Kate would be stupid enough to invent 8 families who she claims in her book came forward to the UK police and who she read about in the official files - if in fact all that is a pack of lies.  If anyone can explain why she would do something so suicidal from the point of view of her credibility with the police -  I'd be interested to hear it.   

[icabodcrane]

A perfectly appropriate analogy IMO.       We are being asked to believe that if there  is no a record of another child ever being taken from her bed then it's not possible Madeleine was.    Now that is silly.    What about the little girl taken from her bath?  Are we saying that can't be true because we know of no other identical cases?

What is even sillier IMO is the idea that Kate would be stupid enough to invent 8 families who she claims in her book came forward to the UK police and who she read about in the official files - if in fact all that is a pack of lies.  If anyone can explain why she would do something so suicidal from the point of view of her credibility with the police -  I'd be interested to hear it.   

Actually,  Benice,  what we are being asked to believe,  on this thread at least,  is that because abductions are  'prevalent'  in Portugal,  it is likely that Madeleine was abducted  too

I'll stop here to  make the point that  'prevalence'   refers to that which is a widespread and common occurance,  so I personally reject the premise of the thread,  which I consider to be groundless 

Anyway,  my personal objections aside,  let's pretend that  abductions  are  widespread and common occurances in Portugal   ...   what statistical   relevance does that have on whether or not Madeleine was abducted   ?

The answer must be none 

(  If it were not then it wouldn't be possible to dismiss the statistical  evidence of no child ever having been abducted from their bed in Portugal  as irrelevant in Madeleine's case   ) 

[AnneGuedes]

  If anyone can explain why she would do something so suicidal from the point of view of her credibility with the police -  I'd be interested to hear it.   

"Suicidal" ! How dramatic !
DCI Redwood said Mrs McCann isn't a suspect, what would she need credibility for ?

[Sherlock Holmes]

So statistics of children who were abducted  ,  but NOT  from their beds,  can be presented as relevant to Madeleine McCann 

Whilst statistics of children who  were  abducted from their beds  are  not  necessary because they  are NOT relevant to Madeleine McCann  ?

Pervese logic indeed

Not what I was saying at all.

What is not logical is to state that because there are no statistics involving a bed, Madeleine cannot have been abducted.

There are several cases around Europe of children who have been abducted from their gardens and from close to their homes and parents, and to suggest that Madeleine cannot possibly be part of that statistic is making  the criteria unnecessarily narrow.

[Redblossom]

Not what I was saying at all.

What is not logical is to state that because there are no statistics involving a bed, Madeleine cannot have been abducted.

There are several cases around Europe of children who have been abducted from their gardens and from close to their homes and parents, and to suggest that Madeleine cannot possibly be part of that statistic is making  the criteria unnecessarily narrow.

Unlikely rather than impossible is the key here. As for too narrow, better narrowing it down than inflating it every which way IMO, after all there is zero evidence of any abduction, and the case is listed officially by the  FCO as a missing person precisely because there is no evidence of abduction

See last para

http://www.mccannfiles.com/imagelib/sitebuilder/misc/show_image.html?linkedwidth=actual&linkpath=http://www.mccannfiles.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/foirequest141209b.jpg&target=tlx_picxuro

[Redblossom]

Also a RC school and seminary in the north of Scotland has been exposed recently as being a hotbed of all kinds of abuse.

Cover ups of all kinds for years.

It is hardly saying anything bad about Portugal in particular to note that there have been abductions or crimes of the above kind, or that there have sometimes been cover ups. These things seem to be endemic everywhere as we have all noted.

but Vixte directly inferred that the handling of this was different in Portugal.Which is clearly untrue.

Casa Pia didn't only happen in Portugal.
It happened in many countries.
The handling of it in Portugal is what was the problem. Denying it. Brushing under the carpet. That is the problem.

[VIXTE]

If they published such a story having made it up you'd believe it. Be honest. You want finger-pointing not accuracy.

Well, if they find the victims and interview them and then make a link of this to the files then no one can dispute the existence of such cases..

[Mr Gray]

So statistics of children who were abducted  ,  but NOT  from their beds,  can be presented as relevant to Madeleine McCann 

Whilst statistics of children who  were  abducted from their beds  are  not  necessary because they  are NOT relevant to Madeleine McCann  ?

Pervese logic indeed

Shouldn't we narrow it down to 3 yr old blonde girls abducted from their beds...in fact why stop there. This shows how stupid it is to try and use statistics to decide what happenned to Maddioe

[Mr Gray]

but Vixte directly inferred that the handling of this was different in Portugal.Which is clearly untrue.

Casa Pia didn't only happen in Portugal.
It happened in many countries.
The handling of it in Portugal is what was the problem. Denying it. Brushing under the carpet. That is the problem.

I get the impression Portugal likes to sweep unpleasant things under the carpet. Burglaries at PDL...that's why I don't believe we can simply compare statistics from one country to another

[Cariad]

2 years is too small a period of time. 10 years minimum.
Strictly speaking abducted kids should be separated from missing and within abducted the bed ones and public space ones. The age should be taken into account, as well as the number of national vs foreigners.
I wish I were a statistician.
If you select the 2003/2013 ten years, 3 girls disappeared in Portugal, a Guinean one (6), a Portuguese toddler (2) and the British Madeleine (3/4).
The first little girl (very cute child) was born in Guinea Bissau and adopted there. The Guinean adoptive parents took her to Portugal. About one year later she disappeared. The parents said someone took her in charge and went with her to Spain where she died in a car accident.
The second little girl was abducted by her father, a fisherman from the Açores, divorced, around 9pm. He took a taxi, then got a lift from someone who left him somewhere with the baby. Later he went to the police where he found his ex-wife reporting the abduction. He was alone.

We don't have figures for ten year periods here. We do know that between 250,000 and 300,000 people are reported missing every year in britain and the 65% are under the sage of 18. so taking the lower number of 250,000 x 10 = 25,00000 then - 35% = 8,75000 then - 8,75000 from 25,00000 = 16,25000

but the population of the UK is 6 times that of Portugal, so divide 16, 25000 by 6 = 2,700000

So, have two million, seven hundred thousand people under the age of 18 been reported missing in Portugal in the last ten years?

If the answer is higher than 2,700000 we know that there are more missing children in Portugal than the Uk, taking into account population size.

BTW, I've shown my workings as maths is.....um..... not my strong point, as I demonstrated yesterday. If I've messed up, please point it out.


Also, if anyone can find the figures for under 18's reported missing in Portugal in the last decade, we can answer the OP.

[Estuarine]

It seems that the postulation is that those nasty Portuguese people are hiding things and sweeping things under the carpet for reasons that have yet to be quantified. Precisely what is being swept under the carpet has not been not quantified either. At present it is perm any one from 3. But whatever it is the "sources" of the information on which the postulation is founded are an article in the Grauniad and Kate McCanns book. Neither of which are actually sources at all, merely conduits passing on information that may or may not be accurate each to satisfy their own agenda.
Thus far all that has been established is that there has been at least one case of instutionalised child abuse in Portugal in which officialdom may have been complicit and that some children go missing each year in Portugal. So pretty much like every other country in Europe unless of course one places credence on the "lawless hinterland" of Portugal as defined by Dave Edgar?
Dear old Dave must have been watching Deliverance and Southern Comfort for his ideas.
So not much there then to prove anything. Bearing in mind one is trying to prove or disprove the theory that Madeleine McCann was abducted and it was more likely in Portugal (PdL) than anywhere else.

[Lace]

Just because there are not many examples of children being abducted from their beds does not mean it didn't happen.

Do you think the police sit down and say 'Look this is very rare Madeleine was three,  are there any three year old's who have been abducted from their beds?    No?   Well it couldn't have happened then'.

[Carana]

We don't have figures for ten year periods here. We do know that between 250,000 and 300,000 people are reported missing every year in britain and the 65% are under the sage of 18. so taking the lower number of 250,000 x 10 = 25,00000 then - 35% = 8,75000 then - 8,75000 from 25,00000 = 16,25000

but the population of the UK is 6 times that of Portugal, so divide 16, 25000 by 6 = 2,700000

So, have two million, seven hundred thousand people under the age of 18 been reported missing in Portugal in the last ten years?

If the answer is higher than 2,700000 we know that there are more missing children in Portugal than the Uk, taking into account population size.

BTW, I've shown my workings as maths is.....um..... not my strong point, as I demonstrated yesterday. If I've messed up, please point it out.


Also, if anyone can find the figures for under 18's reported missing in Portugal in the last decade, we can answer the OP.

I doubt that it would be possible to compare. We had a thread on the issue on here somewhere. I had found a few studies and articles on the subject, but the links are dead.

In the UK, children / young people in institutional care have to be reported missing if they are not present at curfew time (which could presumably include benign incidents of some sulking teenager who didn't turn up for a meal). Sometimes numerous reports are (or were) recorded about the same incident. The majority turn up or are found a few hours or days later. Even if kids turn up a few hours later, they would still be recorded in the "missing" statistics - unless a minimum period of time was specified in a particular study. I've no idea whether Portugal has similar reporting regulations, nor the proportion of children in institutional care.

Various UK reports mention the issue of children who are illegally in the UK and taken into care. Some then disappear into thin air. On the other hand, some who are privately "fostered" by "extended family" and who then disappear, may not be reported as missing at all. There is also the issue of teenagers disappearing to avoid forced marriages. I've no idea whether Portugal faces such issues, nor, if so, to what extent.

Although there may well be runaways in Portugal, the number is quite astounding in the UK:

Children running away and going missing from home or care is a
safeguarding issue. There are no exact figures for the number of children who run
away, but estimates suggest that the figure is in the region of 100,000 missing per year.
It is thought that approximately 25 per cent of children and young
people that go missing are at risk of serious harm.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/208528/Statutory_guidance_on_children_who_run_away_or_go_missing_from_home_or_care_consultation_-_final.pdf

Again, I don't know how statistics are compiled in Portugal.