Weather, Tides, Moon etc near PdL around the time of the abduction.

[sadie]

Weather tides Moon, natural light etc near Pdl

PLEASE ALLOW ME TO POST ALL FOUR SECTIONS BEFORE COMMENTING.  Thankyou

FACTS

Part 1  Sunset and the Moon

2nd May 2007 ~ Full Moon

Sunrise, 3rd May 2007 was 6.38am West

Sunset, 3rd May 2007 was 8.25pm West

The days were lengthening by about one minute in the morning and one minute in the evening, so the 4th May had sunrise at 6.37am West

Sadies thoughts:  There was a full moon on May 2nd 2007.  So the night would be a little lighter than normal on May 3rd. 

However like the sun, the moon rises in the east and sets in the west.  It takes a somewhat similar route across the skies.  I am not sure of moon rise time, but had it risen, it would have been low in the eastern sky at 9.15 pm and at 10pm.

i)  Interestingly 5A car park had high trees to its eastern side. 
ii)  The little cove (beach) that ?bundleman might have been walking towards (Smiths sighting) also had high rocks to its eastern side. 

As the moon would have been low in the sky, neither place would have been getting any direct moonlight.   They would both be dark spots

[sadie]

Part 2


Tides:


3rd May:

High 3.35am West ........Low 9.33am West

High 3.49pm West ........Low 9.53pm West

Temperature at 10pm = 60*F (16*C) on 3rd May  [but gusty]


4th May
High 4.07am West ........Low 10.02am West

All the above conditions were for nearby Lagos  ( about 3.5 miles away)


Sadies thoughts: 
Seems, to me that ?bundleman had just missed the best time for sailing i.e. with  the tide gently going out and in full darkness apart from some indirect moonlight
   
Was this because JT's witnessing the abduction frightened the wits out of the getaway car driver, so he did not connect with bundleman? The timing would have been perfect at 9.15 – 9.30 pm ... full darkness and tide about to turn , but still gently going out

All the above conditions were for Lagos (3.5 miles away approx)

[sadie]

Part 3


All the following conditions were for Faro airport  which is about 50+ miles away (80+km). The airport is right by the sea front


Barometric pressures

2nd May Barometric pressure was dropping quite rapidly (it seems to me) - I have little knowledge in this area - does this mean a storm/poor sea conditions?

1014hPa (29.95 Hg) at midnight, dropping to 1006hPa (29.7 Hg) at 5.30pm
Wind speeds: Ave.27km/hr.....Max. 39km/hr
Visibility: 10km, Cloudy early evening. Temp at 10pm: 57*F (14*C)


3rd May Barometric pressure rising

1009 hPa (29.8Hg) at midnight, rising to 1013hPa (29.92 Hg) at 10.00pm

Wind speeds: ave. 16 km/hr..... Max. 30km/hr [20.1 mph]

Visibility: 10Km, Clear sky. Temp at 10pm: 60*F (16*C)



4th May Barometric Pressure rising

1013 hPa (29.8 Hg) at midnight, rising to 1016 hPa (30Hg) in evening, and still steadily rising through the 5th May

Dont know whether any of the above means anything to you? Ocean sailors might understand the statistics better than i do.

[sadie]

Part 4


My analysis

With my limited understanding it seems as though:

May 2nd would not have been too good a day for the abduction, because with the falling barometer the sea might have been a bit rough for a small boat to leave the tiny rocky cove after dark.

If the route out was via a small boat from that rocky beach/ cove, then the best time to leave would have been just before low tide on May 3rd , when the tides were slowing ready for the changing tides.  The best time for the tides would be a little before 9.53 pm, whilst it was dark with the moon hardly risen. 

This was especially so,  as both pertinent places (OC and the little beach) had high light barriers to their eastern ends … so no direct moonlight at either place at that time.

The abduction was about 9.15 = 9.20 pm.  Perfect timing, both for tidal conditions and darkness imo. 

And also for the pick up boat to sail on to the disembarkation port, to arrive just before dawn …

…. I have made an educated guess at that port.  Later, maybe……



An abduction on May 4th might have been considered dicy, because holiday makers often change their routine on the last evening of a holiday




In my opinion these guys knew the McCanns routine, they thought about the weather, the tides, the moon, the necessary sailing time to reach port by dawn   and about not doing it on the final day.

Seems pretty professional to me.

Of course if they were not using a little boat from that rocky beach, then the whole equation changes..........!!

www.wunderground.com/history/Faroairport

[sadie]

I am sorry, I am having terrible connection problems. 

Am only connected about 5% - 10% of the time.  All the above were copied and pasted from a word document I produced and quickly posted when all five lights were up on my modem

Sometimes only have three lights up

[John]

A poor internet connection is a real bugbear Sadie, does this always happen where you are at the moment?

I will get a chance to study the detail you have produced later this morning but in the meantime excellent work.   

[Chinagirl]

There is nothing fantastic, unsourced or irrational about Sadie's above post.  It is an excellent piece of information and well worthy of debate.

It is well within the bounds of possibility that Madeleine was taken away from PdL by boat.

[Albertini]

And this is another thing i don't understand about the abduction.

What was the purpose of taking her?

For a childless couple somewhere? Ok, but wouldn't said childless couple look a bit odd going about their daily lives with a new 3 year old matching Madeleine's description turning up out of nowhere? Wouldn't she have to go to a doctors, a dentist, a school, be registered somewhere where she could be recognised?

For a Paedo ring? Ok, but by definition wouldn't a "ring" require more than one child? And if they wanted a 3 year old child would they still want a 10 year old child? Wouldn't there be more cases like this where 3 year olds are getting taken from their beds to replace the children getting older?

And bringing boats into it and getaway drivers, it all sounds a bit James Bond.

[Benice]

There is nothing fantastic, unsourced or irrational about Sadie's above post.  It is an excellent piece of information and well worthy of debate.

It is well within the bounds of possibility that Madeleine was taken away from PdL by boat.

I couldn't agree more.  And I've always thought that removal by boat was an extremely feasible scenario.

It should be noted that Amaral did not dismiss it either.

[xtina]

quote ....For a Paedo ring? Ok, but by definition wouldn't a "ring" require more than one child?

yes  and there was three for the taking ....all of whom could have come to harm with the mccs neglect..

[faithlilly]

I couldn't agree more.  And I've always thought that removal by boat was an extremely feasible scenario.

It should be noted that Amaral did not dismiss it either.

But isn't Amaral a liar and a perjurer ?

[Benice]

But isn't Amaral a liar and a perjurer ?

Yes - without a doubt as he's got a conviction to prove it.    I thought everyone knew that.

[AnneGuedes]

It should be noted that Amaral did not dismiss it either.

The Maritime Police did its job under the direction of the MP.
On the 8th of May Mrs McCann reported a "strong vision" of Madeleine on a boat, by a friend of a friend of a familiar.
Nevertheless Prof Harrison, who proved he's a patient man when he examined the hair machine report of a missing persons hunter, dismissed any rational boat hypothesis after reading the Maritime Police's report.

[faithlilly]

Yes - without a doubt as he's got a conviction to prove it.    I thought everyone knew that.

Then you can't have it both ways Benice. You can't simply trust his word when it suits.

[Redblossom]

So in addition to bundleman, spottyman, moustacheman, we now have oceanographer astronomer  and meteorologistman?

Did they wait for the right conditions then? And what if the conditions were ripe, would have happened if something unforeseen happened, like a total break to the routine? Would they have to wait for the next helpful tide and  / or moon phase?



Sorry, I dont see this kind of planning and masterminding to the smallest detail for the best part of a week to abduct a normal child from a holiday flat, and then getting spotted as well..... now if it was some rich famous persons  kid  maybe.......