UK votes for #BrExit from the EU. 52% Leave - 48% Stay.

[Mr Gray]

There have been worries expressed about multi-nationals who, they say, are here to gain access to EU markets. The problem with them is they get preferential treatment and if things don't suit they're off again. I've worked for two. The first one lost the outsourcing contract we were working on to another multi-national who moved the operation to Portugal. We trained the Portuguese staff here for three months and they were a bit taken aback to find they would be doing a busy, demanding and difficult job for 1/3 of the wage we received. They subsequently lost the jobs to India.

If more UK companies were able to start up with government help at least the jobs created would be relatively safer.
Attracting molti-nationals isn't good for workers because there's no job security.

Absolutely correct

[mercury]

You got it right.

His insecurities, a power struggle within the Tory party and fear of votes going to Ukip led to the referendum and inevitable events since.

He better watch out he doesnt become Blair/Chilcot mark II

[John]

Since there are so many stories doing the rounds about voters allegedly changing their minds, we are running a new vote on twitter.

Results so far...

https://twitter.com/Jellpaul58/status/750630051033604096

[John]

Making soundings does not = prosperity.  Surely even the most rabid Europhobe would have to concede that we've got a long, long way to go before we begin to feel any possible benefits of the split.  Most would also admit that things are inevitably going to get a lot worse for most people before they get better (if they ever do).

It will get worse for those who have been milking the EU project, and so it should be.

[John]

What exactly do "soundings" mean?

Non-EU trade links existed before.

They exist now under tariffs.  Post Brexit there will be no customs tariffs so worldwide trade with the UK can only increase significantly.  The UK economy is not a basket case as some would have us believe, the country is very capable of going it alone and the sooner the better imo.

[Carana]

They exist now under tariffs.  Post Brexit there will be no customs tariffs so worldwide trade with the UK can only increase significantly.  The UK economy is not a basket case as some would have us believe, the country is very capable of going it alone and the sooner the better imo.

Hmmm. I'm not so sure about that, John. What about WTO tariffs?

... In the absence of a deal between the UK and the EU, the UK would then be required to follow World Trade Organisation rules on tariffs.
Who does the UK trade with? In 90 seconds Play! 01:36
What would that mean?

The UK would pay tariffs on goods and services it exported into the EU, but since the UK would pay ‘most favoured nation’ rates, that would prohibit either side imposing punitive duties and sparking a trade war.

These WTO tariffs range from 32 per cent on wine, to 4.1 per cent on liquefied natural gas, with items like cars (9.8 per cent) and wheat products (12.8 per cent) somewhere in between.

John Springford, an economist with the Centre for European Reform, the total cost of those tariffs would be large, ranging from a 2.2 per cent of GDP (£40 billion) to 9 per cent.

Business for Britain, which campaigns for exit, estimates that at worst, tariffs would cost British exporters just £7.4 billion a year and says the UK would save enough on EU membership fees to be able to compensate exporters for that.

Damian Chalmers, professor of European Union law at the London School of Economics, says the bigger threat to the UK exports would not be from WTO tariffs, but other EU states imposing new regulations and other “non-tariff barriers” to keep UK services out.


What about UK striking trade deals with other big economies?

This is eminently possible, but is likely to take time. Having ceded responsibility for trade policy to the EU, the UK civil service may lack the capacity to strike major trade deals quickly.

It is also possible, as David Cameron argues, that other countries will want to see what terms the UK receives in Europe before committing to their own deal, potentially leading to further delays.

A larger question will be about the UK’s bargaining power with countries whose domestic politics push them towards protectionism, not free trade. Professor Chalmers warns that striking trade deals with major economies such as the US, China and India would be “tough” for Britain.

Brexit campaigners note that the EU has so far failed to secure such free trade deals, and suggest the UK would have a better chance negotiating in its own right with politicians in Washington, Beijing and New Delhi.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/what-would-brexit-mean-for-british-trade/

[Carana]

Business for Britain, which campaigns for exit, estimates that at worst, tariffs would cost British exporters just £7.4 billion a year and says the UK would save enough on EU membership fees to be able to compensate exporters for that.

But, but, but according to the Boris Bus Blunder, the savings were supposed to go to the NHS.  &%+((£

[Carana]

Cearly the UK could join EFTA.


Eversheds comment: Could the UK join EFTA?

http://www.eversheds.com/global/en/what/publications/shownews.page?News=en/uk/comments/could-uk-join-efta050716



"Subsequently, CNBC reported that some of the EFTA States said that they are open to letting the UK re-join EFTA (which the UK helped to establish over 50 years ago) and that Swiss President Johann Schneider-Amman believes EFTA would be strengthened should the UK re-join the association."


Erm, no doubt. Seemingly, Switzerland is in a bit of a mess at the moment.



Nov 2015:

Whatever you do, don't become Switzerland, Swiss academics tell UK

Since voting to introduce quotas for EU citizens, Switzerland has been cut off from academic funding and international talent

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/11/whatever-you-do-dont-become-switzerland-swiss-academics-tell-uk


July 2016:
EU tells Swiss no single market access if no free movement of citizens

Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor

Sunday 3 July 2016 11.49 BST
Swiss-EU talks reveal determination of EU to make no concessions to UK over Brexit terms
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens

Add to that, the current CHF/Euro woe.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland%E2%80%93European_Union_relations

And, from what I've been reading, Switzerland does pay (indirectly) into the EU budget via some development fund or other. I'll add the link when I find it again.

For anyone with mild insomnia... It's from 2012, but it's only 12 pages.

Outsiders on the inside Swiss and
Norwegian lessons for the UK
By David Buchan


https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/attachments/pdf/2012/buchan_swiss_norway_11oct12-6427.pdf

[Carana]

On the other side of the debate, I don't have a problem with some kind of immigration quota system. Nor do I have a problem with some kind of period during which some types of benefits are restricted.

[John]

On the other side of the debate, I don't have a problem with some kind of immigration quota system. Nor do I have a problem with some kind of period during which some types of benefits are restricted.

I fear Theresa May will never be able to deliver it.  The UK people have voted for something which neither the Tories nor Labour are either willing or capable of enacting.  We will end up with compromise and a system which is unfit for purpose.

[Carana]

I fear Theresa May will never be able to deliver it.  The UK people have voted for something which neither the Tories nor Labour are either willing or capable of enacting.  We will end up with compromise and a system which is unfit for purpose.

Whatever that compromise turns out to be, there is the issue of time-scale versus scope to be negotiated by headless chickens...

[Carana]

I fear Theresa May will never be able to deliver it.  The UK people have voted for something which neither the Tories nor Labour are either willing or capable of enacting.  We will end up with compromise and a system which is unfit for purpose.

Who would, in your opinion, John?

[John]

Who would, in your opinion, John?

Cameron could have done it but he buckled in the end.

[Carana]

Cameron could have done it but he buckled in the end.

Can anyone help to find the facts of what had actually been negotiated (or had been close to agreement) prior to this referendum?

[John]

Can anyone help to find the facts of what had actually been negotiated (or had been close to agreement) prior to this referendum?

Only what Cameron negotiated in an attempt to remain.  As I understand iit there were no Brexit talks pre referendum.