Author Topic: Amaral and the dogs  (Read 844695 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline mercury

Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3060 on: August 19, 2015, 08:43:28 PM »
Misquoting a third party as saying that Madeleine is definitely dead, that her concealed remains are somewhere in close proximity and that someone close (such as her parents!) certainly is.

What I quoted first can only be viewed in that context.

Harrison told hm 96 per cent of crimes against children were perpetrated by friends and relatives 84 per cent by parents, 4 per cent by strangers, hardly libellous!! to just repeat what he was told by a policeman??

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3061 on: August 19, 2015, 08:46:13 PM »
Harrison told hm 96 per cent of crimes against children were perpetrated by friends and relatives 84 per cent by parents, 4 per cent by strangers, hardly libellous!! to just repeat what he was told by a policeman??

It is certainly libellous, and I don't believe Harrison said any such thing.

Aside from all else, it is a misapplication of statistics.

stephen25000

  • Guest
Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3062 on: August 19, 2015, 08:49:15 PM »
It is certainly libellous, and I don't believe Harrison said any such thing.

Aside from all else, it is a misapplication of statistics.

What stats ferryman ?

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3063 on: August 19, 2015, 08:50:10 PM »
What stats ferryman ?

Stats are irrelevant.

stephen25000

  • Guest
Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3064 on: August 19, 2015, 08:51:33 PM »
Stats are irrelevant.



Really ?


So what about this misapplication of stats ?

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3065 on: August 19, 2015, 08:52:34 PM »


Really ?


So what about this misapplication of stats ?

Stats are irrelevant.

stephen25000

  • Guest
Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3066 on: August 19, 2015, 08:54:41 PM »
Stats are irrelevant.

In missing children cases ??

In police work ??

Pull the other one.

Offline mercury

Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3067 on: August 19, 2015, 08:55:03 PM »
It is certainly libellous, and I don't believe Harrison said any such thing.

Aside from all else, it is a misapplication of statistics.

Why don't you believe MH said any such thing?

And Amaral didn't say MH told him the parents ARE responsible, he used the stats as part of his hypothesis, any policeman would

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3068 on: August 19, 2015, 08:59:28 PM »
Why don't you believe MH said any such thing?

And Amaral didn't say MH told him the parents ARE responsible, he used the stats as part of his hypothesis, any policeman would

Because right at the end of his third and final report, Harrison said this:

I am currently of the opinion on the available information and statistical datasets that if death has occurred, that it is possible that Madeleine McCann’s body has been disposed into the sea at Praia da Luz. (See my second report entitled “NPIA OP TASK Search Doc Beach and Marine”).

Clearly indicating that he he had reached no firm conclusion about the fate of Madeleine, and that he did not consider that her remains were concealed anywhere in proximity to PdL

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3069 on: August 19, 2015, 09:03:44 PM »
Why don't you believe MH said any such thing?

And Amaral didn't say MH told him the parents ARE responsible, he used the stats as part of his hypothesis, any policeman would

then he misapplied/misunderstood  the stats

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3070 on: August 19, 2015, 09:05:57 PM »


Really ?


So what about this misapplication of stats ?

If we say 96% of children who are harmed are harmed by their parents...then what is the possibility that the McCanns harmed Maddie...you have claimed some expertise in statistics...now is your chance to shine

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3071 on: August 19, 2015, 09:09:00 PM »
Why don't you believe MH said any such thing?

And Amaral didn't say MH told him the parents ARE responsible, he used the stats as part of his hypothesis, any policeman would

then amaral is an idiot

Offline mercury

Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3072 on: August 19, 2015, 09:11:14 PM »
Because right at the end of his third and final report, Harrison said this:

I am currently of the opinion on the available information and statistical datasets that if death has occurred, that it is possible that Madeleine McCann’s body has been disposed into the sea at Praia da Luz. (See my second report entitled “NPIA OP TASK Search Doc Beach and Marine”).

Clearly indicating that he he had reached no firm conclusion about the fate of Madeleine, and that he did not consider that her remains were concealed anywhere in proximity to PdL

My question was about statistics given by MH where you said you didnt believe MH told Amaral any such thing, nothng to do at this juncture with life/death/disposal/location

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3073 on: August 19, 2015, 09:15:19 PM »
Stats are irrelevant.

AMAZING STATISTICS

Great Britain has at its disposal the world's biggest data bank on homicide of children under five years old. Since 1960, the count is 1528. Harrison is well acquainted with its contents. He often draws information from there which helps him to resolve similar cases. Valuable information can be found there on on various criminal modus operandi, places where bodies are hidden, techniques used to get rid of a body. He relates that on one occasion, thanks to the data, he was able to deduce the maximum distance a body might be found in relation to where the crime had been committed.

The figures quoted in the report he hands over give us the shivers. The crimes, including those of a sexual nature, are committed by the parents in 84% of cases; 96% are perpetrated by friends and relatives. In only 4% of them is the murderer or abductor a total stranger to the victim. In this roundabout way, Mark Harrison points out that the guilty party may be a person close to Madeleine, and even her own parents. From now on, we have to explore this track, especially as the others have proved fruitless.

Harrison also suggests that we use the skills of two totally remarkable dogs: the first an EVRD (Enhanced Victim Recovery Dog), achieves outstanding performance in the detection of human cadaver odour; the second, a CSI dog (Crime Scene Investigation) is capable of smelling the tiniest trace of blood, knowing how to recognise its human origin. To convince us of their capability and the extraordinary work carried out by these very special detectives in the course of over 200 investigations, he screens a video for us, showing their training and their intervention on the ground.

He suggests that we start the operations with the inspection of apartment 5A, then those occupied by the McCanns' friends. Robert Murat's house will also be subjected to thorough examination. In addition, all the vehicles used by all of them will be sniffed by the dogs.

Meanwhile, we were supposed to receive American electronic equipment that detects human bodies thanks to the odour that emanates from them (Scent Transfer Unit 100). But the equipment, blocked by customs, arrived late. We didn't need to use it, having obtained very concrete results, thanks to the dogs. (TOTL)
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Amaral and the dogs
« Reply #3074 on: August 19, 2015, 09:16:18 PM »
If we say 96% of children who are harmed are harmed by their parents...then what is the possibility that the McCanns harmed Maddie...you have claimed some expertise in statistics...now is your chance to shine

c'mon Stephen...if you are so good at maths where's your answer.......