UK Justice Forum 🇬🇧

UK and North American politics. => A look at British politics in the light of the decision to leave the EU. => Topic started by: Carana on September 02, 2019, 09:50:59 AM

Title: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Carana on September 02, 2019, 09:50:59 AM
I hadn't realised that even a scoping exercise for a no-deal mitigation scenario didn't start until the summer of 2018 - i.e 2 years after the referendum.

https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Contingency-preparations-for-exiting-the-EU-with-no-deal.pdf
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Carana on September 11, 2019, 08:05:24 AM
Seems the above doc isn't the Full Monty...
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Venturi Swirl on September 11, 2019, 09:10:43 PM
Read it and weep

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

I wonder what was so horrific about point number 15 that it had to be redacted entirely...
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Venturi Swirl on September 11, 2019, 11:16:50 PM
Can anyone explain why Boris is

1) working feverishly to secure a deal (allegedly)
2) supremely confident that we’ll be just fine without a deal

Why is he bothering with the former, or at least pretending to?  Why doesn’t he just do some straight talking and tell the EU to come grovelling after 31st October?
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Carana on September 12, 2019, 07:03:08 AM
Many thanks VS.

The obliterated point 15  (refineries will have to close):

https://twitter.com/NAJ562/status/1171907870377553921/photo/1

Someone kindly typed up the text to make it easier to share bits of it:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YqW077IW6sT2xWzZW1dSJqPPtmEU8p_t/view
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Carana on September 12, 2019, 07:11:59 AM
Does anyone else suspect that what has just been released still isn't the full monty?
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Venturi Swirl on September 12, 2019, 07:15:50 AM
Many thanks VS.

The obliterated point 15  (refineries will have to close):

https://twitter.com/NAJ562/status/1171907870377553921/photo/1

Someone kindly typed up the text to make it easier to share bits of it:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YqW077IW6sT2xWzZW1dSJqPPtmEU8p_t/view
Ah, thanks.  Anyone else remember how close we came to the end of civilization when the supply of petrol was last disrupted for a few days? 
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Venturi Swirl on September 12, 2019, 07:20:10 AM
Does anyone else suspect that what has just been released still isn't the full monty?
I don’t know but what I do know is the government are proven liars, as the release of this document shows.  When it was first leaked they claimed a) it was an old report and b) it was leaked by members of the previous cabinet under May.  Both demonstrably false claims.  Trust them an inch?  Not I.
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Venturi Swirl on September 12, 2019, 07:25:31 AM
Excellent imo comment in the Times today

“Asking to publicise private communications is a step too far but what’s more worrying is the ‘Trumpesque’, bare-faced lying over what is clearly a strategic shutdown of Parliament to prevent discussion and opposition of one of the most important issues of our time. In the same way deliberate lies were told to get us here, Johnson, Gove et al. are running true to form in their hijacking of democracy and lying about their reasons for doing it. Don’t believe Johnson’s scruffy clown act as a smokescreen for his Machiavellian entitlement - see through Gove’s blinky, scripted rhetoric, as Education Secretary he was Cumming’s puppet. There has been a sea-change in politics recently towards an insidious Neo-liberalism that is riding on a wave of Populism to sneak in at the back door - Dangerous times.”
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Venturi Swirl on September 12, 2019, 07:37:01 AM
So anyway, now we know the possible downsides of a no deal Brexit, what are the upsides (apart from duty free fags and booze for anyone lucky enough to be able to leave the country afterwards)?
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Carana on September 12, 2019, 09:22:54 AM
A Brexit 50p coin?
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Carana on September 12, 2019, 09:33:44 AM
So... once project reality hits home, people may well end up agreeing to a deal - any deal - to avert the iceberg. The problem I have with that is that any form of Brexit will have downsides - it's just a matter of opting for the least catastrophic outcome.
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Venturi Swirl on September 12, 2019, 09:35:46 AM
I think a no-deal Brexit is necessary to kick start the campaign to rejoin the EU, which I predict will gather momentum and overwhelming public support  in the months and years following a no deal. 
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Carana on September 12, 2019, 09:44:43 AM
The UK will still have to go through the accession process (which could take a long time) and there ain't no way in hell it would be able to get the rebate back. IMO.
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Carana on September 12, 2019, 09:46:33 AM
Ah... It seems Yellowhammer isn't the worst case scenario. That one's called Black Swan, if the ST journo is correct:
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1162962653427437568
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Venturi Swirl on September 12, 2019, 10:26:21 AM
Ah... It seems Yellowhammer isn't the worst case scenario. That one's called Black Swan, if the ST journo is correct:
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1162962653427437568
Yet the liars in our cabinet tried to tell us it was.  How can we trust a word they tell us about anything?
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Venturi Swirl on September 12, 2019, 10:28:48 AM
The UK will still have to go through the accession process (which could take a long time) and there ain't no way in hell it would be able to get the rebate back. IMO.
It would be up to the British public to decide if that was a price worth paying for our foolishness in voting to leave in the first place.  My bet is after a few years of post-Brexit recession and misery, and no sign of the magical reduction in immigration figures that some seemed to think leaving the EU promised, we will be begging to be let back in, whatever the cost.
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Carana on September 16, 2019, 11:15:17 AM
I've no way of verifying this at the moment, so usual caveats apply:


Jules
@ThatStupidMan
All 3 Brexit planning ops:

#Yellowhammer: base scenario for No Deal

#BlackSwan: worst case scenario for no deal (drug, food and energy rationing, Emergency Powers Act details and Martial Law planning)

#Kingfisher: financial support package for business

#r4today
https://twitter.com/ThatStupidMan/status/1172032366560329728

However, it does seem plausible to me for several reasons.

IFFFF my understanding of the situation is more or less accurate (which it may not be), there are several "Operations" open, dealing with different angles.

It would also mean that some more "creative ambiguity" is at play in terms of downplaying  the extent of  preparation for potential domestic chaos to avoid public panic.

Yellowhammer does seem to be the base assumption of a no-deal scenario (whittled down to a one or two sentence summary).

The other two seem to be about operational planning (army/police, and emergency aid to selected business / service sectors), based on YH.

Meanwhile, Fuzz Wuzzy Hulk BoJo might well "negotiate" what the EU originally proposed (the NI proposal, as opposed to May's UK backstop) and claim victory.

If that happens, the UK could end up as the Kingdom of England.
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Carana on September 16, 2019, 11:18:53 AM
Cui bono?
Title: Re: No-deal planning: Operation Yellowhammer
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on September 17, 2019, 09:03:36 PM

Is this thread based on:https://americanliterature.com/childrens-stories/henny-penny-the-sky-is-falling

because it reads just like it!