Sadie's theory, the watcher and a getaway car.

[slartibartfast]

The forum does not allow libellous posts. You may think other theories are well within the bounds of possibilities bits that's your opinion...not fact

They have as much grounding in fact as Sadie’s.

[Mr Gray]

They have as much grounding in fact as Sadie’s.

Again stating your opinion as fact
I see abduction as a real possibility...woke and wandered appears possible but the archiving report which has access to far more information than we do regards it as highly unlikely....I don't see any other possibilities in any way realistic...imo

[Brietta]

They have as much grounding in fact as Sadie’s.

That may be your opinion.  It certainly is not mine.

In Sadie's theory there may have been an observer watching from a balcony opposite; a witness saw what might have been trace evidence from that position which might have been tremendously useful in a prosecution case, had it been collected and analysed.
Despite the witness realising the implication and indicating its presence to the police, it was subsequently discarded.

Therefore there was evidence that Sadie's proposed vantage point had been in use by a person or persons who may have spent some time there either innocently or for nefarious purposes.  Hard evidence.

Some other theories don't come near even to that small scrap of what, handled appropriately, might have been another piece of information to build a picture of what might have happened to Madeleine rather than only being corroboration for Sadie's theory.

[Alice Purjorick]

That may be your opinion.  It certainly is not mine.

In Sadie's theory there may have been an observer watching from a balcony opposite; a witness saw what might have been trace evidence from that position which might have been tremendously useful in a prosecution case, had it been collected and analysed.
Despite the witness realising the implication and indicating its presence to the police, it was subsequently discarded.

Therefore there was evidence that Sadie's proposed vantage point had been in use by a person or persons who may have spent some time there either innocently or for nefarious purposes.  Hard evidence.

Some other theories don't come near even to that small scrap of what, handled appropriately, might have been another piece of information to build a picture of what might have happened to Madeleine rather than only being corroboration for Sadie's theory.

Yup! and if a sewing machine had bigger wheels it might be a car.
or if you prefer if the dog hadn't stopped running he might have caught the bunny.

[Brietta]

Sadie's theory reflects on how access might have been gained to the McCann apartment.  Robberies had taken place in other holiday accommodation in the resort without obvious signs of forced entry:

The woman said: "It was in the same block as the one where the little girl was taken from.

"The police were called that night. They told us that someone with a key had got into the flat. There’s no proof of that, but that was their opinion as there was nothing else disturbed. No broken windows, no forced entry."
http://www.gerrymccannsblogs.co.uk/Nigel/id331.htm

Making yet another detail of Sadie's theory which checks out and could also have been a possibility.

[Innominate]

IMO access via a key is entirely plausible, although it is one of a small number of plausible theories.

In this scenario the window may be a distraction; perhaps opening the window/shutters was intended to draw attention away from the use of a key to gain access, or to give the impression that Madeleine had climbed out the window and wandered off, in order to buy time/confuse.

But I believe, from the evidence in the files, that it is "almost certain" (to use SY terminology) that MBM disappeared from the apartment after the MO check around 9:30 (providing parental involvement is ruled out).

This would only require minor modifications to Sadie's theory, in that JT could have potentially seen an abductor when she went change places with ROB after her main meal.

It is a pity the statement from Crecheman is not available, which may help refine what JT may or may not have seen.

All IMO.

[G-Unit]

Sadie's theory reflects on how access might have been gained to the McCann apartment.  Robberies had taken place in other holiday accommodation in the resort without obvious signs of forced entry:

The woman said: "It was in the same block as the one where the little girl was taken from.

"The police were called that night. They told us that someone with a key had got into the flat. There’s no proof of that, but that was their opinion as there was nothing else disturbed. No broken windows, no forced entry."
http://www.gerrymccannsblogs.co.uk/Nigel/id331.htm

Making yet another detail of Sadie's theory which checks out and could also have been a possibility.

I don't think newspaper stories can be seen as 'evidence'. Most of what they reported was untrue gossip imo. There's nothing in the official files from this 'Scottish woman';

A second holidaymaker told police an intruder used a key to enter her Ocean Club apartment just three weeks before Madeleine went missing. Express 18th August.
http://www.gerrymccannsblogs.co.uk/Nigel/id331.htm

Which police did she tell therefore, the British? How did the Express find her, were the British police 'leaking'?

It's probably as inaccurate as this statement about the man Carol Tranmer saw;

She told the officer the man matched the description of a suspect seen by Jane Tanner one of the McCanns' holiday friends. Express 18th August.
http://www.gerrymccannsblogs.co.uk/Nigel/id331.htm

It sounds good, but it's not true.

[Brietta]

There certainly appeared at one time to be quite a bit of denial about the spate of burglaries endemic in Portugal and reports of British children being assaulted in their beds by an intruder were routinely rubbished; some of us know better now.

[slartibartfast]

There certainly appeared at one time to be quite a bit of denial about the spate of burglaries endemic in Portugal and reports of British children being assaulted in their beds by an intruder were routinely rubbished; some of us know better now.

I assume you are not using that video as evidence of the assaults?

[jassi]

Has anyone proved a link between Madeleine and these incidents?

[barrier]

Has anyone proved a link between Madeleine and these incidents?

Are there Police files concerning these incidents rather than hearsay would be more a more  pertinent question imo.

[Brietta]

IMO access via a key is entirely plausible, although it is one of a small number of plausible theories.

In this scenario the window may be a distraction; perhaps opening the window/shutters was intended to draw attention away from the use of a key to gain access, or to give the impression that Madeleine had climbed out the window and wandered off, in order to buy time/confuse.

But I believe, from the evidence in the files, that it is "almost certain" (to use SY terminology) that MBM disappeared from the apartment after the MO check around 9:30 (providing parental involvement is ruled out).

This would only require minor modifications to Sadie's theory, in that JT could have potentially seen an abductor when she went change places with ROB after her main meal.

It is a pity the statement from Crecheman is not available, which may help refine what JT may or may not have seen.

All IMO.

Sadie had formulated much of her theory before we ever heard about Crecheman being traced by SY; I think part of the pity in that episode is that more effort hadn't been put into doing that by investigators closer to the time of Madeleine's disappearance.
I have never been totally convinced by DCI Redwood's eureka moment on that one.

But I don't think crecheman's appearance changes much if anything as far as Sadie's theory of what might have happened is concerned.

I agree that the mystery of the window was never about in or egress it was about something else entirely and that may very well have been to cover up the possession of the key.
No other such 'clue' was left in any of the Ocean Club burglaries and with the exception of Mrs Fenn's disturbing experience, nothing to indicate the MO used.

Sadie has suggested that the window had been opened either as an escape route or to pass Madeleine through.  As well as expressing the opinion in the instance of 5A there might have been a requirement to deflect attention from something else concerning the crime ... use of a key for the door?

I doubt if even whoever raised the shutter and opened the window in whichever order that was done could ever have anticipated the way in which that action was destined to influence the direction the investigation would take.

The newspaper headlines the day after Madeleine vanished about discrepancies in statements and badly told stories about staged crime scenes must have combined manna from heaven with a get out of gaol free card.  In my opinion had they planned it that way, it couldn't have worked out better for them.

[Brietta]

I assume you are not using that video as evidence of the assaults?

I am using that video as evidence that there is a sensitivity among some individuals regarding burglary in Portugal, in this instance the local newshound expressing ignorance of what occurred in his own back yard.

The clip meets the requirement of countering the already criticised medium of the press with a live interview thus enabling members to view and judge for themselves using a tried and tested formula sometimes called 'free speech'.

[barrier]

I have never been totally convinced by DCI Redwood's eureka moment on that one.

Why? if Redwood was not being genuine in what he said why say it at all especially on the Crimewatch programme.

[Robittybob1]

Why? if Redwood was not being genuine in what he said why say it at all especially on the Crimewatch programme.

I think he was genuinely wanting the focus to go on to the Smith sighting.