Sadie's theory, the watcher and a getaway car.

[Innominate]

What if Mrs Fenn's speculations were correct?

She states: "When questioned she said that she never saw any strange person or action before or after the event. She claims however, that a week previously she was the victim of an attempted robbery, which was not successful and neither was anything taken, thinking that the crying of the child could be linked to another attempted robbery in the residence."

Is it possible that someone (or a couple of people) gained access to 5A on the 1st May?

If so they may have disturbed MBM which led to the crying (making the assumption that Mrs Fenn's account of the crying is accurate). They may then have left without taking or leaving signs of entry.

If so, this individual (or these individuals) could have returned on the 3rd, perhaps planning to burgle again, or having decided to escalate the crime to a kidnap for ransom.

[G-Unit]

What if Mrs Fenn's speculations were correct?

She states: "When questioned she said that she never saw any strange person or action before or after the event. She claims however, that a week previously she was the victim of an attempted robbery, which was not successful and neither was anything taken, thinking that the crying of the child could be linked to another attempted robbery in the residence."

Is it possible that someone (or a couple of people) gained access to 5A on the 1st May?

If so they may have disturbed MBM which led to the crying (making the assumption that Mrs Fenn's account of the crying is accurate). They may then have left without taking or leaving signs of entry.

If so, this individual (or these individuals) could have returned on the 3rd, perhaps planning to burgle again, or having decided to escalate the crime to a kidnap for ransom.

All sorts of things could have happened, but I can't see how unsupported speculation helps. Just because something could have happened doesn't mean it did.

[misty]

What if Mrs Fenn's speculations were correct?

She states: "When questioned she said that she never saw any strange person or action before or after the event. She claims however, that a week previously she was the victim of an attempted robbery, which was not successful and neither was anything taken, thinking that the crying of the child could be linked to another attempted robbery in the residence."

Is it possible that someone (or a couple of people) gained access to 5A on the 1st May?

If so they may have disturbed MBM which led to the crying (making the assumption that Mrs Fenn's account of the crying is accurate). They may then have left without taking or leaving signs of entry.

If so, this individual (or these individuals) could have returned on the 3rd, perhaps planning to burgle again, or having decided to escalate the crime to a kidnap for ransom.

1. Wasn't Kate in the apartment just before 10.30pm using her phone, just prior to the alleged crying incident?
2. Why would potential burglars have scarpered if they'd gained entry & knew the children had been left on their own? It would make no sense to return in case the children were subsequently being supervised after having been upset.
Alternatively, if no entry had been gained, how would the potential burglars have known the children were on their own?

[G-Unit]

1. Wasn't Kate in the apartment just before 10.30pm using her phone, just prior to the alleged crying incident?
2. Why would potential burglars have scarpered if they'd gained entry & knew the children had been left on their own? It would make no sense to return in case the children were subsequently being supervised after having been upset.
Alternatively, if no entry had been gained, how would the potential burglars have known the children were on their own?

There is nothing in the files to say that Kate returned to the apartment before 10.30pm on Tuesday, is there?

[misty]

There is nothing in the files to say that Kate returned to the apartment before 10.30pm on Tuesday, is there?

How do you account for the mobile usage at that time?

[G-Unit]

How do you account for the mobile usage at that time?

It was a mobile phone, not a landline. She could have been anywhere in Luz. She says this about Thursday evening, maybe they always took their phones;

With respect to the objects she says they took with them: their mobile phones. Gerry might have taken a wallet with money. Not sure if they took a camera.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/KATE-MCCANN_ARGUIDO.htm

Clarence Mitchell said they had no watches or mobile phones with them, but he was wrong.

[misty]

It was a mobile phone, not a landline. She could have been anywhere in Luz. She says this about Thursday evening, maybe they always took their phones;

With respect to the objects she says they took with them: their mobile phones. Gerry might have taken a wallet with money. Not sure if they took a camera.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/KATE-MCCANN_ARGUIDO.htm

Clarence Mitchell said they had no watches or mobile phones with them, but he was wrong.

Why would any of the group have taken a switched-off phone to the dinner-table (given the roaming charges) if they were all together?

[Mr Gray]

the Yorkshire post...

"It was made out to be the biggest 'conspiracy' since the Diana 'conspiracy,'" says Mitchell. "Some of the group (of friends in the tapas restaurant) had their watches on that night, and others didn't... asking nine people to give exact explanations of what happened at what moment during the evening was never going to produce matching stories; what would have been more suspicious was nine exactly co-ordinated accounts."

Read more at: http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/analysis/kate-and-gerry-will-search-for-madeleine-to-the-end-of-their-lives-if-that-s-what-it-takes-1-2502642

[G-Unit]

the Yorkshire post...

"It was made out to be the biggest 'conspiracy' since the Diana 'conspiracy,'" says Mitchell. "Some of the group (of friends in the tapas restaurant) had their watches on that night, and others didn't... asking nine people to give exact explanations of what happened at what moment during the evening was never going to produce matching stories; what would have been more suspicious was nine exactly co-ordinated accounts."

Read more at: http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/analysis/kate-and-gerry-will-search-for-madeleine-to-the-end-of-their-lives-if-that-s-what-it-takes-1-2502642

When there are quotation marks that means they are quoting direct speech from the named person.

[G-Unit]

Why would any of the group have taken a switched-off phone to the dinner-table (given the roaming charges) if they were all together?

I think you need to ask Kate McCann, not me.

[Mr Gray]

When there are quotation marks that means they are quoting direct speech from the named person.

You need to realise that just because something is reported in a newspaper...even if it looks like an actual qoute it may well not be...that is not my opinion it is  a fact

[Carana]

What if Mrs Fenn's speculations were correct?

She states: "When questioned she said that she never saw any strange person or action before or after the event. She claims however, that a week previously she was the victim of an attempted robbery, which was not successful and neither was anything taken, thinking that the crying of the child could be linked to another attempted robbery in the residence."

Is it possible that someone (or a couple of people) gained access to 5A on the 1st May?

If so they may have disturbed MBM which led to the crying (making the assumption that Mrs Fenn's account of the crying is accurate). They may then have left without taking or leaving signs of entry.

If so, this individual (or these individuals) could have returned on the 3rd, perhaps planning to burgle again, or having decided to escalate the crime to a kidnap for ransom.

Possibly. Or perhaps she heard a child crying from a different apartment (from memory, one of the group's kids was sick that night). There may have been other kids in the block crying at some point that night as well. I wish they'd done a reconstruction with her to determine where she thought the sound was actually coming from.

[Robittybob1]

Follow the link and read it in context.

Can you help me with that a bit what have I missed IYO?

[G-Unit]

You need to realise that just because something is reported in a newspaper...even if it looks like an actual qoute it may well not be...that is not my opinion it is  a fact

It doesn't really matter as my point was that there's no evidence that Kate was in 5A at 10.30pm on 1st. Misty thought she didn't have her mobile phone with her, but she took it on the Thursday, so why not on Tuesday?

The only person reported as saying they didn't take their watches and phones was Mitchell. Either he or the newspapers got that wrong.

[sadie]

IMO access via a key is entirely plausible, although it is one of a small number of plausible theories.

In this scenario the window may be a distraction; perhaps opening the window/shutters was intended to draw attention away from the use of a key to gain access, or to give the impression that Madeleine had climbed out the window and wandered off, in order to buy time/confuse.

But I believe, from the evidence in the files, that it is "almost certain" (to use SY terminology) that MBM disappeared from the apartment after the MO check around 9:30 (providing parental involvement is ruled out).

This would only require minor modifications to Sadie's theory, in that JT could have potentially seen an abductor when she went change places with ROB after her main meal.

It is a pity the statement from Crecheman is not available, which may help refine what JT may or may not have seen.

All IMO.

It has always been a mystery why Gerry thought that his chat with Jez took place towards the east side of Rua Francisco G M. [Cutting Edge video]

A part of my mini theory, which I missede out, is that Gerry and Jez were chatting in the road towards its eastern pavement .... and that a vehicle coming made them back away to the spot where Jane saw them and which both Jez and Amaral confirm.  If that vehicle was the getaway vehicle, seems it maybe dithered then changed ditrection upon seeing Gerry and Jez (and Jane) and then hot fotted it in a Southerly direction.

I full accept that this may not be the case but it is a distinct possibility and would account for Gerrys mistake about which side of the road they standing on when chatting.  It could, of course, have been  another vehicle passing by that caused them to retreat to the western kerb by the alleyway

BUT when I was there mid summer (June IIRC) 2010 there was a dearth of traffic along that road, either motorised or walking, day or evening.  We didn't bother with the pavements, we walked in  the road it was so quiet.

This tends to point to the earlier time that  Jane walked that walk, rather than the later time.

But we dont know for certain, do we?