Sadie's theory, the watcher and a getaway car.

[Angelo222]

The moon didn't rise until about ten that night.  I have posted official times on here at least twice before .... and IMO such info should be kept in a special "Indesputable Info Section"

At my age I cant keep looking these things up again.  IIRC the moon rose just after 10 pm. 

I seem to remember that it was one day off Full Moon.

#

Please correct me if I have remembered any of the above info incorrectly

As the car park was on the north side of block 5 I don't think moonlight would have had any significance as the moon tracks from east to west along a southerly arc.  Do you happen to know if it was a clear night on the 3rd May 2007 or was there cloud cover?

[Innominate]

The moon didn't rise until about ten that night.  I have posted official times on here at least twice before .... and IMO such info should be kept in a special "Indesputable Info Section"

At my age I cant keep looking these things up again.  IIRC the moon rose just after 10 pm. 

I seem to remember that it was one day off Full Moon.

#

Please correct me if I have remembered any of the above info incorrectly

I've rechecked and the moon did not pass the horizon until 9:54pm.

https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/@2266934?month=5&year=2007

Between 8:30pm and 9:54pm it was twilight, with the Sun moving further below the horizon, and the full moon moving towards the horizon.

Around 9pm the Sun was about 8-10 degrees below horizon and moon about the same.

Sunset at 8:25pm

All the above figures correct to the best of my knowledge.

[sadie]

As the car park was on the north side of block 5 I don't think moonlight would have had any significance as the moon tracks from east to west along a southerly arc.  Do you happen to know if it was a clear night on the 3rd May 2007 or was there cloud cover?

Exactly Angelo.  With the high trees to the eastern end of block 5 car park not a lot of any light would get thru to illuminate that car park.

I have always thought that Smithman was probably heading to the little beach just west of the Fortezela.  If he was, then that was also shielded from any moonlight by the high outcrop of rock that the Fortezela was built upon

If the popsitions that they are shown on the maps is is correct, then I am doubtful that the Smiths benefitted at all from any moonlight either


So it seems that no-one that we know of benefitted from the moonlight.


I am happy to be proven wrong

AIMHO

[sadie]

I've rechecked and the moon did not pass the horizon until 9:54pm.

https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/@2266934?month=5&year=2007

Between 8:30pm and 9:54pm it was twilight, with the Sun moving further below the horizon, and the full moon moving towards the horizon.

Around 9pm the Sun was about 8-10 degrees below horizon and moon about the same.

Sunset at 8:25pm

All the above figures correct to the best of my knowledge.

Thanks for that Innomi.   I felt sure that a meteorogical site I found said 10.02, but I must have misremembered.   
I am surprised that dusk was as long as that because the closer that you get to the equater, the shorter twilight is.

Sorry to be pedantic but it wasn't actually a full moon.   It was one day off full moon.  Not that that would make much difference illumination wise
 

[G-Unit]

What i think, altho I accept that it might not be right, is that Tannerman never intended to walk anywhere on the open streets carrying Madeleine.

My theory is that they had worked out the timing pretty accurately.
 
-  Going in and out of the apartment, opening shutters and window and lifting Madeleine, took probably about a minute, maybe less. 
-  The walk for The Watcher/ Getaway driver, which was down block 6 back steps, thru the back garden, thru the garden gate and into the get away vehicle ... and then the drive up to then car park entrance would probably take about the same time .... NORMALLY

But as The Getaway driver started to come off that little car park (opposite Tapas secondary Reception) and started to turn right to go up Rua Francisco Gentils Martins he was suddenly aware of Gerry and Jez in the middle of the very street he had to drive up.  Gerry and Jez aware that  a vehicle was trying to come up the street where they were standing, backed away to the western side of the street by the alleyway

The driver dithered.  Should he brazenly drive past the father of the child they were abducting?   

In the meantime Jane appeared and he further dithered.


Meanwhile Tannerman literally left holding the baby (Madeleine) was getting really anxious.  Why wasn't his getaway vehicle there? .... So he risked walking to the corner to have a look-see.

Jane was almost upon him, so he took a snap decision to carry on walking in the direction he was going.  had he turned around, Jane would have been following him   And after all walking the way he was he could double back to the car park and get-away vehicle via the dimly lit alleyways.


The dithering Getaway driver suddenly saw Tannerman carrying Madeleine appear and Jane was almost upon him, witnessing the abductor

Panicking, he turned tail and drove off down the street in a Southerly direction .... leaving Tannerman, carrying Madeleine, in the lurch

I know that this may not be what happened, but it could well be .

Everything, including all the points that I made a few days ago, fits perfectly.
 
It also explains why Gerry thought that he chatted with Jez on the other side of the street. 
Because initially he made the conscious effort to cross the street, meeting Jez in the middle /Eastern side of the street.  That changed when the getaway vehicle swung out causing them to back to the western side of the street, which Jane and Jez remember



I think that Jane was able to pick up some colour, enabled by the light that the getaway drivers vehicle headlights produced.  The street lights being sodium were virtually monochromatic,and gave out a sickly yellow glow.  Other than yellow, they showed little colour on their own

Jane was able to recognize some colour, so I would suggest that the getaway vehicles headlights flicked across Tannerman and helped her do that.


AIMHO

Note to moderators:  The above is Sadie's theory as to what may have occurred.

Was it possible to go out of the back of block 6 without entering an apartment?
If Jes and Gerry moved because of a car, why didn't they mention it?
If the cars headlights lit up Tannerman the car would have been almost fully into the road, facing upwards. The driver would either have to do a tight u-turn or a reverse to go down the road. Is it feasible that no-one noticed this manoeuvring?

[faithlilly]

Was it possible to go out of the back of block 6 without entering an apartment?
If Jes and Gerry moved because of a car, why didn't they mention it?
If the cars headlights lit up Tannerman the car would have been almost fully into the road, facing upwards. The driver would either have to do a tight u-turn or a reverse to go down the road. Is it feasible that no-one noticed this manoeuvring?

Of course not.

[Robittybob1]

Of course not.

4 questions and only one answer.  That is a fail.

[Alice Purjorick]

Of course not.

Bump post 260? 

[sadie]

Was it possible to go out of the back of block 6 without entering an apartment?
If Jes and Gerry moved because of a car, why didn't they mention it?
If the cars headlights lit up Tannerman the car would have been almost fully into the road, facing upwards. The driver would either have to do a tight u-turn or a reverse to go down the road. Is it feasible that no-one noticed this manoeuvring?

Tbh, I dont know the answer to that.   I think that it would be cheaper to just build the one staircase to serve the front entrance and back, but this would involve a landing /passageway of some sort.  Dunno what method they used but on G.Earth there is no evidence of any steps on the back of this section of block 6.    Surely all the apartments would have access to the rear and the parking there

When you are deeply engrossed in conversation one almost goes into automatic mode IMO.  They got out of the way by moving back to the western kerb ... and never thought about it again.  Not important

From the exit of the little car park opposite the Tapas Reception Area to the place where Gerry and Jez were chatting.  The get-away driver could have come out and straightened up and still have been 15 metres, or so, short of Gerry and Jez chatting spot.  Tannerman was a further 30 metres up the road and well lit by a very close street lamp.  Jane was a little closer.

Yep the driver would have to make a turn backing into the entrance of the little car park, but that is not difficult for most drivers.   I think it quite likely that his headlamps briefly lit Tannerman for Jane.


Most car headlights are monochromatic (show no colour, just shades).
So if this vehicle lit Tannerman showing colour, it reduces the types of vehicles used for the getaway to ones that gave a polychromatic spectrum of colours when lighting something.

A very useful clue if my theory is correct.

Just my theory, so it may or may not be correct.

[faithlilly]

Tbh, I dont know the answer to that.   I think that it would be cheaper to just build the one staircase to serve the front entrance and back, but this would involve a landing /passageway of some sort.  Dunno what method they used but on G.Earth there is no evidence of any steps on the back of this section of block 6.    Surely all the apartments would have access to the rear and the parking there

When you are deeply engrossed in conversation one almost goes into automatic mode IMO.  They got out of the way by moving back to the western kerb ... and never thought about it again.  Not important

From the exit of the little car park opposite the Tapas Reception Area to the place where Gerry and Jez were chatting.  The get-away driver could have come out and straightened up and still have been 15 metres, or so, short of Gerry and Jez chatting spot.  Tannerman was a further 30 metres up the road and well lit by a very close street lamp.  Jane was a little closer.

Yep the driver would have to make a turn backing into the entrance of the little car park, but that is not difficult for most drivers.   I think it quite likely that his headlamps briefly lit Tannerman for Jane.


Most car headlights are monochromatic (show no colour, just shades).
So if this vehicle lit Tannerman showing colour, it reduces the types of vehicles used for the getaway to ones that gave a polychromatic spectrum of colours when lighting something.

A very useful clue if my theory is correct.

Just my theory, so it may or may not be correct.

More whatifery. The evidence does not support your theory.

[sadie]

More whatifery. The evidence does not support your theory.

Oh, but it does.  Where is that formidable "thinking cap" of yours?


Despite the fact that the evidence DOES support my theory, unlike some on here I do not claim that it is fact.

Unlike some, i can see that there are things that we do not know which could preclude my theory

But you are quite incorrect Gunit, my theory is backed in several ways by evidence or facts.


It could have happened like I am thinking, IMO, and it seems the opinion of others.

[G-Unit]

Tbh, I dont know the answer to that.   I think that it would be cheaper to just build the one staircase to serve the front entrance and back, but this would involve a landing /passageway of some sort.  Dunno what method they used but on G.Earth there is no evidence of any steps on the back of this section of block 6.    Surely all the apartments would have access to the rear and the parking there

When you are deeply engrossed in conversation one almost goes into automatic mode IMO.  They got out of the way by moving back to the western kerb ... and never thought about it again.  Not important

From the exit of the little car park opposite the Tapas Reception Area to the place where Gerry and Jez were chatting.  The get-away driver could have come out and straightened up and still have been 15 metres, or so, short of Gerry and Jez chatting spot.  Tannerman was a further 30 metres up the road and well lit by a very close street lamp.  Jane was a little closer.

Yep the driver would have to make a turn backing into the entrance of the little car park, but that is not difficult for most drivers.   I think it quite likely that his headlamps briefly lit Tannerman for Jane.


Most car headlights are monochromatic (show no colour, just shades).
So if this vehicle lit Tannerman showing colour, it reduces the types of vehicles used for the getaway to ones that gave a polychromatic spectrum of colours when lighting something.

A very useful clue if my theory is correct.

Just my theory, so it may or may not be correct.

I would expect a theory to contain factual possibilities, not guesses. Block 6 had a car park, so no need for access to the one to the south.

The distance from the car park exit to the corner of the path is 25m. The distance to the top of the road is 60m. Low beam headlights will allow you to see an object in the road 45m away. High beam headlights may have lit up Tannerman, but three people would have noticed them blazing away in my opinion.

[G-Unit]

Jane Tanner's rog. interview;

4078    “So you didn’t notice any car headlights or noises from cars?”
Reply    “No, no, because I think, you know, if I’d heard sort of a car screech off quickly at that point, I probably would have, would have taken notice I think”.
4078    “Go back over it and have a think if you heard anything from the point where you have passed Gerry and Jez to seeing this man, what could you hear?”
Reply    “Phew, I can’t think of anything, there was nothing, no, nothing that comes to mind, there was nothing, as I say, I can’t remember hearing a car or, no, nothing, I mean, it was quite, apart from, as I say, it was very quiet really around there”.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JANE_TANNER_RIGATORY.htm

[sadie]

I would expect a theory to contain factual possibilities, not guesses. Block 6 had a car park, so no need for access to the one to the south.

The distance from the car park exit to the corner of the path is 25m. The distance to the top of the road is 60m. Low beam headlights will allow you to see an object in the road 45m away. High beam headlights may have lit up Tannerman, but three people would have noticed them blazing away in my opinion.

I dont know for certain if there is a way through as I stated a few posts back ... but ....

Has it occurred to you that the watcher might have rented (or gained free entrance to) the ground floor flat in block 6 adjacent to the balconies?   With all the burglary entries apparently via front doors, keys seem to have been available from some source.

We have measured to slightly different spots but basically to a metre or so, I agree with your measurements.

Had The Getaway driver pulled out, straightened up and stopped 15 metres***** before the vehicle reached Gerry and Jez, then the distance to Tannerman would have been 45 metres.   Even with the low level lamps, Tannerman would be lit up.  With high level lamps he woulf be lit up royally ... and Jane would be enabled to see colours as she claimed.


[***** 15 metres is being generous to you cos he might have driven closer than that before realizing who he was approaching.  He also needed stopping distance.  THen he would have been well inside the 45 metres to Tannerman rather than on the edge of it.]

[faithlilly]

Oh, but it does.  Where is that formidable "thinking cap" of yours?


Despite the fact that the evidence DOES support my theory, unlike some on here I do not claim that it is fact.

Unlike some, i can see that there are things that we do not know which could preclude my theory

But you are quite incorrect Gunit, my theory is backed in several ways by evidence or facts.


It could have happened like I am thinking, IMO, and it seems the opinion of others.

Oh no it doesn't !!

Give me one statement from the main protagonists that mentions seeing a moving car between 9-9.30 ?