Statistical probability anyone?

[Holly Goodhead]

When DNA evidence is used in a criminal trial it is expressed using statistics along the lines of 99.7% of the population will not share the defendant's DNA found at soc.

DNA evidence was not even envisaged at the time of JB's trial.  Blood type/group was used instead which is not highly exclusive to individuals in the same way that DNA is.  Blood type/groups are shared between many members of the population.  For example SC and RB share the same blood type/group.  This was discovered by FSS when they analysed the relatives blood as requested by JB's defence to rule out contamination given that they found the silencer.  I am not suggesting necessarily that RB's blood was deliberately planted in the silencer as it is unlikely anyone other than specialists ie FSS would have this knowledge?  By the time it became common knowledge that SC and RB shared the same blood type/group the silencer was already in the possession of FSS?  However it illustrates the fact that blood type/groups are shared by many individuals.  As far as I am aware from the judge's summing up, jury's deliberations/questions for judge and all the other info I have read in the public domain no statistical probability was ever given for the following scenarios:

- The blood sample found in the silencer belonging to SC as a result of blow back/back spatter

- The blood sample found in the silencer being an intimate mix of NB's and June's blood as a result of blow back/back spatter

- The blood sample found in the silencer belonging to a third party ie not a victim as a result of contamination either accidental or deliberate

- The blood sample found in the silencer belonging to SC as a result of contamination either accidental or deliberate as opposed to blow back/back spatter

Why not?

If it was not possible to provide a statistical probability for the above scenarios surely the jury should have been made aware of the possible scenarios?


36

[Holly Goodhead]

The blood type/group used to at JB's trial was as follows:

                        ABO                    PGM                    EAP                     AK                    Hp

Nevill Bamber           O                        PGM1+                EAP BA               AK1                   Hp2-1
June Bamber            A                         PGM1+                EAP BA               AK2-1                Hp2-1
Daniel Caffell            O                        PGM2+1+            EAP B                 AK1                   Hp2
Nicholas Caffell         O                        PGM2+1+           EAP B                 AK1                    Hp2
Sheila Caffell            A                        PGM1+                EAP BA               AK1                    Hp2-1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blood In Silencer      A                        Nil                        EAP BA              AK1                    Hp2-1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Robert Boutflour       A                         PGM1+                EAP BA              AK1                     Hp2-1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ABO = Blood Group System

PGM = Phosphoglucomutase (Enzyme) Breaks down quickly outside the body hence blood in silencer was unable to produce a reading

EAP = Erythrocyte Acid Phosphatase (Enzyme)

AK = Adenylate Kinase (Enzyme)

HP = Haptoglobin (Protein)

As per post #1 and the table above the blood type/group results are by no means exclusive to individuals.  All JB's living adoptive relatives were asked to provide a blood sample which they did.  I do not know how many provided a sample but I would be surprised if it extended beyond more than 20 or 30 people.  As can be seen  from this relatively small sample of people, the blood sample found in the silencer matched SC's and RB's blood  type/group.  Contrast this with the following evidence re DNA:

"The chances that two unrelated people have identical profiles is less than one on one billion"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/0/20205874

[Holly Goodhead]

And yet the jury were led to believe:

- The blood in the silencer came from SC

- It was there as a result of back spatter/blow back

Page 12 of summing up

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=273.0;attach=899

"Now I think that does complete the evidence of those experts, so it all comes down to this, does it not?  Mr Hayward says, "Well to begin with, merely analysing the blood inside the moderator, it correponds with Sheila Caffell's.

Page 13 of summing up

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=273.0;attach=901

"then come to Mr Fletcher's evidence: "One of Sheila's wounds clearly was a contact wound", so that is entirely consistent with it being her blood in the end of the moderator".

[Holly Goodhead]

Hahaha I'm doing a Tubby Tesco and replying to my own posts 

It is clear the jury misunderstood.  They ask if the blood found and subsequently tested in the silencer represented a "perfect match" to SC's.  The type of testing carried out was only capable of providing type/group results shared by many and as already mentioned shared by RB.

Page 1, 2nd para of summing up/questions from jury

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=273.0;attach=879;image

"We need to hear blood expert's evidence regarding the blood in the silencer, (a) a perfect match of Sheila's blood, (b) what was the chance of the blood group being June and Ralph's mixing together"

[Holly Goodhead]

The fact that the jury were led to believe only two possibilities existed ie SC's blood or an intimate mix of NB's and June's is a very worrying feature of the case.

I understand the reason Geoffrey Rivlin QC did not explore accidental or deliberate contamination was a strategic decision he made in that he did not want to put the jury in the position of having to decide whether they believed JB over the relatives and Essex police.

A year or two after JB's trial Geoffrey Rivlin QC became a judge.  Do we have any idea how competent he was as a barrister?  Or are we expected to believe he was competent in all cases and the system is infallible? 

[Holly Goodhead]

NGB1066 on Blue, a non-practising barrister, confirms deliberate and accidental contamination were legitimate possibilities to put before the jury for consideration and given the way in which the silencer was found and handled prior to arriving at FSS surely should have been?

http://jeremybamberforum.co.uk/index.php/topic,4121.msg171113.html#msg171113

http://jeremybamberforum.co.uk/index.php/topic,4121.msg171124.html#msg171124

http://jeremybamberforum.co.uk/index.php/topic,4121.msg171132.html#msg171132

http://jeremybamberforum.co.uk/index.php/topic,4121.msg171143.html#msg171143

http://jeremybamberforum.co.uk/index.php/topic,4121.msg171145.html#msg171145

http://jeremybamberforum.co.uk/index.php/topic,4121.msg171157.html#msg171157

http://jeremybamberforum.co.uk/index.php/topic,4121.msg171285.html#msg171285

[Holly Goodhead]

Dr Michael Naughton, a reader in sociology and law at Bristol University, specialises in miscarriages of justice.  He is the founder and director of the Innocence Network UK (INUK), an organisation he established to facilitate casework and communications in the area of wrongful convictions.  In the following presentation he covers many of the features that seem to cover JB's case (if of course you believe JB is the victim of a MoJ as I do).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8EVLJNUGQM

[guinness]

The blood type/group used to at JB's trial was as follows:

                        ABO                    PGM                    EAP                     AK                    Hp

Nevill Bamber           O                        PGM1+                EAP BA               AK1                   Hp2-1
June Bamber            A                         PGM1+                EAP BA               AK2-1                Hp2-1
Daniel Caffell            O                        PGM2+1+            EAP B                 AK1                   Hp2
Nicholas Caffell         O                        PGM2+1+           EAP B                 AK1                    Hp2
Sheila Caffell            A                        PGM1+                EAP BA               AK1                    Hp2-1



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blood In Silencer      A                        Nil                        EAP BA              AK1                    Hp2-1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Robert Boutflour       A                         PGM1+                EAP BA              AK1                     Hp2-1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ABO = Blood Group System

PGM = Phosphoglucomutase (Enzyme) Breaks down quickly outside the body hence blood in silencer was unable to produce a reading

EAP = Erythrocyte Acid Phosphatase (Enzyme)

AK = Adenylate Kinase (Enzyme)

HP = Haptoglobin (Protein)

As per post #1 and the table above the blood type/group results are by no means exclusive to individuals.  All JB's living adoptive relatives were asked to provide a blood sample which they did.  I do not know how many provided a sample but I would be surprised if it extended beyond more than 20 or 30 people.  As can be seen  from this relatively small sample of people, the blood sample found in the silencer matched SC's and RB's blood  type/group.  Contrast this with the following evidence re DNA:

"The chances that two unrelated people have identical profiles is less than one on one billion"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/0/20205874

Do you know there is a document on another forum showing HP2  further down in the silencer and animal blood on the outside?

[Holly Goodhead]

Do you know there is a document on another forum showing HP2  further down in the silencer and animal blood on the outside?

In answer to your question, no I have not seen any authentic documents showing the presence of protein HP2 further down in the silencer and/or animal blood on the outside.  I would certainly be interested in seeing anything remotely authentic that supports this.

[John]

Dr Michael Naughton, a reader in sociology and law at Bristol University, specialises in miscarriages of justice.  He is the founder and director of the Innocence Network UK (INUK), an organisation he established to facilitate casework and communications in the area of wrongful convictions.  In the following presentation he covers many of the features that seem to cover JB's case (if of course you believe JB is the victim of a MoJ as I do).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8EVLJNUGQM

The only statistic one needs to remember in this case is that the probability of the DNA material found deep in the silencer of the murder weapon not belonging to Sheila is at least a million to one and there is only one way that DNA could have got there ie blood back spatter resulting from the silencer being on the rifle when Sheila was shot twice in the neck at very close proximity.

[Holly Goodhead]

The only statistic one needs to remember in this case is that the probability of the DNA material found deep in the silencer of the murder weapon not belonging to Sheila is at least a million to one and there is only one way that DNA could have got there ie blood back spatter resulting from the silencer being on the rifle when Sheila was shot twice in the neck at very close proximity.

We have discussed the LCN DNA testing many times John.  Even if SC's DNA was found in the silencer detected by LCN DNA testing (the testing was inconclusive) the three appeal court judges found it "utterly meaningless" due to the potential for contamination.  How did June's DNA find its way into the silencer (conclusive)?  Imo it was due to contamination.

I don't think the CoA document could be clearer on the LCN DNA testing, contamination and the results deemed "utterly meaningless".  For those who choose to believe otherwise that it obviously their prerogative. 

[John]

We have discussed the LCN DNA testing many times John.  Even if SC's DNA was found in the silencer detected by LCN DNA testing (the testing was inconclusive) the three appeal court judges found it "utterly meaningless" due to the potential for contamination.  How did June's DNA find its way into the silencer (conclusive)?  Imo it was due to contamination.

I don't think the CoA document could be clearer on the LCN DNA testing, contamination and the results deemed "utterly meaningless".  For those who choose to believe otherwise that it obviously their prerogative.

The judges are governed by the law Holly.  Unless there are 10 pairs of matching markers a judge in the UK cannot hold that the DNA is a match.  From memory I think it was just a tad less than that in the Bamber case but with the chances of it not being a match still being something like 1 in a million, I know where I would put my money.

A point which has been made previously is that there is no possibility that the DNA belonged to Jeremy, June or Nevill since Sheila was not biologically connected to any of them.  Thus the blood mixture argument has no basis whatsoever.

[Holly Goodhead]

The judges are governed by the law Holly.  Unless there are 10 pairs of matching markers a judge in the UK cannot hold that the DNA is a match.  From memory I think it was just a tad less than that in the Bamber case but with the chances of it not being a match still being something like 1 in a million, I know where I would put my money.

A point which has been made previously is that there is no possibility that the DNA belonged to Jeremy, June or Nevill since Sheila was not biologically connected to any of them.  Thus the blood mixture argument has no basis whatsoever.

It's not just a case of whether SC's DNA was in the silecer but how it came to be there?

The CoA ruled that SC's DNA may have been  in the silencer.

If I agree for arguments sake that SC's DNA was detected in the silencer by LCN DNA testing it doesn't explain how it got there.

The CoA concluded that June's DNA was detected in the silencer by LCN DNA.  How do you think it came to be there? 

497. We, therefore, consider the matter on the basis that the conclusions to be drawn from the DNA evidence are:

i) June Bamber's DNA was in the sound moderator at the time of the DNA examination;

ii) Sheila Caffell's DNA may have been in the sound moderator but it was not possible to conclude one way or the other whether it was; and

iii) there was evidence of DNA from at least one male.

[John]

It's not just a case of whether SC's DNA was in the silecer but how it came to be there?

The CoA ruled that SC's DNA may have been  in the silencer.

If I agree for arguments sake that SC's DNA was detected in the silencer by LCN DNA testing it doesn't explain how it got there.

Backspatter Holly.

Gunshot spatter - includes both forward spatter from the exit wound and back spatter from the entrance wound. Gunshot spatter will vary depending on the caliber of the gun, where the victim is struck, whether the bullet exits the body, distance between the victim and the gun and location of the victim relative to walls, floors and objects. Typically, forward spatter is a fine mist and back spatter is larger and fewer drops.

www.forensicsciencesimplified.org/blood/principles.html

John Hayward, the crown’s bloodstain expert, showed the jury Sheila’s bloodied nightdress. Hayward said it indicated that she had been shot in a reclining position and not while lying down. (Such testimony could only apply to the first, non-fatal wound. It’s extremely unlikely Sheila was standing, sitting, or reclining when she was fatally shot.) Hayward’s key testimony related to the blood found between the baffle plates inside the silencer, caused by the phenomenon of backspatter. Backspatter occurs when the expansion of gases created by a bullet being discharged creates back pressure which in turn propels blood from the wound back towards the weapon. This effect is only seen when the muzzle of the weapon is in contact with, or very close contact to, the victim. Hayward said: ‘Since the blood from inside the sound moderator belonged to the same group as Sheila Caffell, and since there was no blood inside the barrel of the rifle, I was led to the conclusion that Sheila Caffell had been shot whilst the sound moderator was fitted to the rifle.’ The blood expert conceded that there was ‘a very remote possibility’ that the blood inside the silencer could have been a mixture of that of June and Nevill Bamber.

[Holly Goodhead]

Backspatter Holly.

Gunshot spatter - includes both forward spatter from the exit wound and back spatter from the entrance wound. Gunshot spatter will vary depending on the caliber of the gun, where the victim is struck, whether the bullet exits the body, distance between the victim and the gun and location of the victim relative to walls, floors and objects. Typically, forward spatter is a fine mist and back spatter is larger and fewer drops.

www.forensicsciencesimplified.org/blood/principles.html

John Hayward, the crown’s bloodstain expert, showed the jury Sheila’s bloodied nightdress. Hayward said it indicated that she had been shot in a reclining position and not while lying down. (Such testimony could only apply to the first, non-fatal wound. It’s extremely unlikely Sheila was standing, sitting, or reclining when she was fatally shot.) Hayward’s key testimony related to the blood found between the baffle plates inside the silencer, caused by the phenomenon of backspatter. Backspatter occurs when the expansion of gases created by a bullet being discharged creates back pressure which in turn propels blood from the wound back towards the weapon. This effect is only seen when the muzzle of the weapon is in contact with, or very close contact to, the victim. Hayward said: ‘Since the blood from inside the sound moderator belonged to the same group as Sheila Caffell, and since there was no blood inside the barrel of the rifle, I was led to the conclusion that Sheila Caffell had been shot whilst the sound moderator was fitted to the rifle.’ The blood expert conceded that there was ‘a very remote possibility’ that the blood inside the silencer could have been a mixture of that of June and Nevill Bamber.

Yes I understand how blowback/back spatter from gunshot works.  However it doesn't explain the fact that LCN DNA testing detected DNA throughout the silencer ie it wasn't restricted to the distribution of blood found within the silencer when it was tested in 1985:

"72. Even given these limitations of LCN profiling, I do consider that the tests were worth attempting. The results obtained would have been of value if the distribution of DNA within the sound moderator detected by the LCN DNA profiling test reflected the distribution of blood within the sound moderator when it was originally tested. Unfortunately they do not."

74. Ms Grombridge reports that DNA has been detected throughout the sound moderator and states that some of the DNA within the sound moderator could have originated from Sheila Caffell."

"75. Plainly, the distribution of DNA detected does not reflect the distribution of blood originally present within the sound moderator. For example, DNA has been detected on baffles 13-17 where no blood had previously been detected."

The report doesn't seem to take into account that the jury may have tipped out the baffles and if they did they may not have put them back in the same order.  However as can be seen above in 74. Ms Grombridge detected DNA evidence throughout the silencer.

The appeal court judges concluded that the DNA found in the silencer detected by LCN DNA testing was not from the flake of blood used for blood group analysis

"501. Thus we think that the CCRC's conclusion that the DNA was likely to have come from "the blood found in the silencer at the time" which was said to be justified "because it was found deep within the silencer" cannot be sustained. The DNA was certainly not from the flake of blood removed for blood grouping purposes and whilst some or all of the DNA that was found within the moderator may have originated from blood, a conclusion that it all did is not one that can be properly drawn."

John are you able to explain the presence of June's DNA in the silencer?

497. We, therefore, consider the matter on the basis that the conclusions to be drawn from the DNA evidence are:

i) June Bamber's DNA was in the sound moderator at the time of the DNA examination;

ii) Sheila Caffell's DNA may have been in the sound moderator but it was not possible to conclude one way or the other whether it was; and

iii) there was evidence of DNA from at least one male.

John we could debate if for forever and a day, and I'm happy to do so, but would prefer to accept the findings of the appeal court judges ie "completely meaningless"?

506. We have no doubt at all that if this evidence had been placed before a jury, they would have concluded, as we do, that in accordance with the emphasised part of Mr Webster's report quoted above, the DNA testing results were rendered completely "completely meaningless".

Mr Webster was a defence expert