Brexit has well and truly begun!

[Carana]

Yes, the EU will suffer as well, but not as much as the UK.

Incidentally, Pascal Lamy, the former WTO chief, famously said that leaving the EU was going to be like taking an egg out of an omelette. He also said, more recently, that if the UK left on WTO terms, it would be like going from 1st division to 4th.

https://twitter.com/rjbarfield1/status/1071423059247161344

[Carana]

I found this quite amusing, but sadly accurate...

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1074965545966071808

[G-Unit]

Yes, the EU will suffer as well, but not as much as the UK.

Incidentally, Pascal Lamy, the former WTO chief, famously said that leaving the EU was going to be like taking an egg out of an omelette. He also said, more recently, that if the UK left on WTO terms, it would be like going from 1st division to 4th.

https://twitter.com/rjbarfield1/status/1071423059247161344

We have been paying around £9 billion net per year membership fees to the EU.
Even if we help businesses out with around 5 billion Euros in tariffs we would still be approx. £4.5 billion better off each year. As that is roughly what we get from the EU in grants, we could use that to replace them,

EU countries would have to increase their membership fees to cover the loss of our contribution and they would have to pay tariffs too if they wanted to continue to sell to the UK. Germany, as the largest contributor too the EU budget and a large exporter to the UK would be particularly affected.

It's by no means certain that the UK would suffer more in my opinion.

[Venturi Swirl]

We have been paying around £9 billion net per year membership fees to the EU.
Even if we help businesses out with around 5 billion Euros in tariffs we would still be approx. £4.5 billion better off each year. As that is roughly what we get from the EU in grants, we could use that to replace them,

EU countries would have to increase their membership fees to cover the loss of our contribution and they would have to pay tariffs too if they wanted to continue to sell to the UK. Germany, as the largest contributor too the EU budget and a large exporter to the UK would be particularly affected.

It's by no means certain that the UK would suffer more in my opinion.

Is this one of those occasions when you don’t defer to the experts?

[G-Unit]

Is this one of those occasions when you don’t defer to the experts?

If you want to debate my opinion feel free. If you just want to score cheap points forget it.

[Venturi Swirl]

If you want to debate my opinion feel free. If you just want to score cheap points forget it.

Just highlighting your inconsistent approach to expert opinion.   Tell us why you know better than those experts who predict serious economic damage following a no deal Brexit then.

[G-Unit]

Just highlighting your inconsistent approach to expert opinion.   Tell us why you know better than those experts who predict serious economic damage following a no deal Brexit then.

What 'serious economic damage'? Please be more specific and we'll debate the details if you wish.

[Venturi Swirl]

What 'serious economic damage'? Please be more specific and we'll debate the details if you wish.

I’m sure you’re already  only too aware of this...
https://www.politico.eu/article/how-no-deal-brexit-would-hit-uk-economy/

[G-Unit]

I’m sure you’re already  only too aware of this...
https://www.politico.eu/article/how-no-deal-brexit-would-hit-uk-economy/

Everything in your article is opinion by "City Experts" so not exactly neutral observers. The text is littered with suggest" "expect" "could be" "likely" and "probably". Where are the facts? In my opinion they just don't know, so they're guessing.

My guess is they might be surprised when the world keeps turning, imports continue to arrive, exports continue to leave and people who already live here fill the vacancies that companies seem to think only EU immigrants will fill. It might cost them a little more in wages, but I'm sure they'd rather pay a decent wage than exploit people.

[Venturi Swirl]

Everything in your article is opinion by "City Experts" so not exactly neutral observers. The text is littered with suggest" "expect" "could be" "likely" and "probably". Where are the facts? In my opinion they just don't know, so they're guessing.

My guess is they might be surprised when the world keeps turning, imports continue to arrive, exports continue to leave and people who already live here fill the vacancies that companies seem to think only EU immigrants will fill. It might cost them a little more in wages, but I'm sure they'd rather pay a decent wage than exploit people.

Damn those city experts - we’ve had quie enough of experts and their stupid opinions oh, and f..k business while we’re at it.  Yes, it’s all going to be happy days when we leave with no deal, course it will!

[G-Unit]

Damn those city experts - we’ve had quie enough of experts and their stupid opinions oh, and f..k business while we’re at it.  Yes, it’s all going to be happy days when we leave with no deal, course it will!

Instead of getting your underwear in a twist, find some facts. Rumours abound, but no-one is forecasting what will happen, just what they fear mught happen. If the word 'might' is in there then 'might not' is also possible.

A fall in the value of the pound is mentioned. Is that an unmitigated disaster? No it isn't, actually, there are benefits in some areas;



https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1882/economics/winners-and-losers-from-weak-pound/

[Venturi Swirl]

Instead of getting your underwear in a twist, find some facts. Rumours abound, but no-one is forecasting what will happen, just what they fear mught happen. If the word 'might' is in there then 'might not' is also possible.

A fall in the value of the pound is mentioned. Is that an unmitigated disaster? No it isn't, actually, there are benefits in some areas;



https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1882/economics/winners-and-losers-from-weak-pound/

Sorry, you mentioned facts but I failed to see any in your post, only more guesses.  That’s the problem with Brexit.  No one can say for certain what leaving with no deal will actually mean for tbe country but many experts agree that it will be an unmitigated disaster for the economy, and that the poorest in society will be the hardest hit.  Of course there is a chance the opposite may be true but crashing out with no deal is reckless and irresponsible in the extreme IMO.  My business will almost certainly be affected negatively and if I still have it in its current in a year’s time after a no deal Brexit I will be amazed.

[G-Unit]

Sorry, you mentioned facts but I failed to see any in your post, only more guesses.  That’s the problem with Brexit.  No one can say for certain what leaving with no deal will actually mean for tbe country but many experts agree that it will be an unmitigated disaster for the economy, and that the poorest in society will be the hardest hit.  Of course there is a chance the opposite may be true but crashing out with no deal is reckless and irresponsible in the extreme IMO.  My business will almost certainly be affected negatively and if I still have it in its current in a year’s time after a no deal Brexit I will be amazed.

How will your business be negatively affected?

[Venturi Swirl]

How will your business be negatively affected?

Rising costs of the products I sell which are mostly manufactured in the EU, longer lead times, higher retail prices, fewer customers, thst sort of thing.

[G-Unit]

Rising costs of the products I sell which are mostly manufactured in the EU, longer lead times, higher retail prices, fewer customers, thst sort of thing.

That sounds very vague. Hopefully you are going to look at the details before 29th March as there's much more than higher prices to consider. There are customs declarations, duty payments and different Vat riles to think about when importing.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/trading-with-the-eu-if-theres-no-brexit-deal/trading-with-the-eu-if-theres-no-brexit-deal