Timeline May 3rd

[Lace]

I don't know anyone whose primary action would be to construct a timeline on a missing child's sticker book or ensure Sky News is reporting on the case by 8am the next morning. Why does the coherence go out of the window when being questionned by Police? Also the umms and errs are evident a year later in the T7 statements after they've had plenty of sleep.

Here's an example:

 1485 "What about a kit bag' Would they have a kit bag with them''
 Reply "Err he certainly didn't have a great big tennis bag or a, you know, err I mean I used to be a squash, a semi-professional squash player and you know they certainly didn't have anything that I would call a kit bag from days when I played''

1485 "Yeah.'
 Reply "You know, a lot of sport, err if they had a rucksack with some water in that would be, you know, about as big as it got, you know a small rucksack. But it certainly wasn't a big tennis, you know, things that you could put a tennis racquet in.'

1485 "Yeah.'
 Reply "There was nothing of that size that you could hide a, a tennis racquet in or anything like that

It wasn't their primary action though was it?   They had been out searching and decided to write the timeline when the Police had arrived and there was a time when they were sat around.   How do you know it was Madeleine's sticker book?   Two year olds like sticker books too.   Anyway it doesn't matter what they wrote the timeline on does it?   Here is what an expert on ums and ahs [filler words]  has to say  -

Villar found that people telling the truth generally used more filler words. In one instance, they reviewed the speeches of people who were telling the truth versus lying. The “results showed that instances of um were significantly more frequent and longer acoustic duration during truth-telling than during lying.”

[Billy Whizz Fan Club]

It wasn't their primary action though was it?   They had been out searching and decided to write the timeline when the Police had arrived and there was a time when they were sat around.   How do you know it was Madeleine's sticker book?   Two year olds like sticker books too.   Anyway it doesn't matter what they wrote the timeline on does it?   Here is what an expert on ums and ahs [filler words]  has to say  -

Villar found that people telling the truth generally used more filler words. In one instance, they reviewed the speeches of people who were telling the truth versus lying. The “results showed that instances of um were significantly more frequent and longer acoustic duration during truth-telling than during lying.”

I think it would be fair to put Villar's research into context:

 Impacts on Credibility
Whatever the cause, scholars are split as to the positive and negative effects of these fillers on a speaker’s credibility. While the majority of scholars agree that the credibility of the speaker decreases with the increase of filler words (Conrad et al. 2013), some scholars suggest that filler words positively affect credibility of the speaker (Villar et al. 2014). Yet still others believe that filler words have absolutely no effect on a speaker’s credibility (Conrad et al. 2013, Pytko and Reese).

Negative Effects
Ultimately, the majority of scholars agree that the overuse of filler words ultimately negates speaker credibility. Frederick Conrad et al., of the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, conducted a study wherein he recorded the successful acceptance rate of telemarketers’ invitation to participate in a survey (2013). He recorded the telemarketers and examined how frequently the telemarketers used filler words. He then compared that with the success rates and found that success rates drop in proportion to the number of filler words used, especially after the number of filler words per 100 words rises above 1.28%

(Exploring filler words and their impact
ED Duvall, AS Robbins, TR Graham, S Divett )

[Billy Whizz Fan Club]

It wasn't their primary action though was it? 

Fair point. I fixed my error.

[Lace]

I think it would be fair to put Villar's research into context:

 Impacts on Credibility
Whatever the cause, scholars are split as to the positive and negative effects of these fillers on a speaker’s credibility. While the majority of scholars agree that the credibility of the speaker decreases with the increase of filler words (Conrad et al. 2013), some scholars suggest that filler words positively affect credibility of the speaker (Villar et al. 2014). Yet still others believe that filler words have absolutely no effect on a speaker’s credibility (Conrad et al. 2013, Pytko and Reese).

Negative Effects
Ultimately, the majority of scholars agree that the overuse of filler words ultimately negates speaker credibility. Frederick Conrad et al., of the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, conducted a study wherein he recorded the successful acceptance rate of telemarketers’ invitation to participate in a survey (2013). He recorded the telemarketers and examined how frequently the telemarketers used filler words. He then compared that with the success rates and found that success rates drop in proportion to the number of filler words used, especially after the number of filler words per 100 words rises above 1.28%

(Exploring filler words and their impact
ED Duvall, AS Robbins, TR Graham, S Divett )

Sorry I replied to the question that when being interviewed they ummed and ahhed a lot,  that makes them guilty of not telling the truth.   I replied with an article that stated that actually those using filler words a lot were proven to be telling the truth when they did an experiment.   I don't know how success rates dropping has anything to do with it.

[Venturi Swirl]

I had reason to visit a consultant yesterday, not a erm and ah in sight.

Was he or she recalling events in detail from last year?

[Venturi Swirl]

I work in critical care and senior doctors are used to answering investigative questions, including those in the coroner's court. When I have shown a colleague the recorded interviews and transcripts of earlier ones she remarked that they were atypical of doctors being asked to recount stressful events. Consultants generally ooze confidence, they are clear about timelines, and they are clear and concise.

Your colleague has questioned numerous doctors about stressful events that occurred to them in their personal lives?  How very unusual!

[Billy Whizz Fan Club]

Sorry I replied to the question that when being interviewed they ummed and ahhed a lot,  that makes them guilty of not telling the truth.   I replied with an article that stated that actually those using filler words a lot were proven to be telling the truth when they did an experiment.   I don't know how success rates dropping has anything to do with it.

It's more that most scholars don't support Villar's research with regards to credibility and filler words.

It's not just "credibility" either there is research to contradict Villar's conclusions on "truthfullness". Such as:

Matsumoto, D., & Hwang, H. S., et. al. (2011) “Evaluating truthfulness and Deception: New tools to aid investigators”, FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, (June): 1-9.

Navarro, J. (2008) “What Every Body is Saying”, New York, NY: HarperCollins Publishers.

Vrij, A. (2008) “Detecting Lies and Deceit: Pitfalls and Opportunities”, Wiley-Blackwell; 2nd Edition, ISBN-13: 978-0470516256

[Billy Whizz Fan Club]

Your colleague has questioned numerous doctors about stressful events that occurred to them in their personal lives?  How very unusual!

It's not unusual at all. We work with doctors. Discussion on stressful events is a daily norm.

[Mr Gray]

It's not unusual at all. We work with doctors. Discussion on stressful events is a daily norm.

At work doctors are in their comfort zone...being interviewed by the police re the possible death of a friends child is outside the comfort zone

[G-Unit]

It wasn't their primary action though was it?   They had been out searching and decided to write the timeline when the Police had arrived and there was a time when they were sat around.   How do you know it was Madeleine's sticker book?   Two year olds like sticker books too.   Anyway it doesn't matter what they wrote the timeline on does it?   Here is what an expert on ums and ahs [filler words]  has to say  -

Villar found that people telling the truth generally used more filler words. In one instance, they reviewed the speeches of people who were telling the truth versus lying. The “results showed that instances of um were significantly more frequent and longer acoustic duration during truth-telling than during lying.”

The first thing the police (PJ) said they did was chuck the McCanns friends out of 5A. No sitting around.

[Venturi Swirl]

It's not unusual at all. We work with doctors. Discussion on stressful events is a daily norm.

In their personal lives?  And record and transcribe them?

[pathfinder73]

Let's put this on the correct thread.

Quote from: Lace on Today at 04:24:21 PM
Well,  the waiter agrees with Russell about what time he arrived back at the table,  which was quarter to ten.  It took ten minutes for Russell to have his meal back and he had almost finished it when Kate give the alarm.  Dianne Webster says in her statement that Kate said 'she's gone Gerry'  so Gerry was at the table end of.

Matt said Kate left at 9:50 and they all agreed except Gerry that she wasn't gone very long before returning.

Russell received his meal at that time and had only had a few bites of his steak as Dianne Webster put it when Kate returned to raise the alarm. That discards your 9:55 time before he even got his meal!

"Well I mean Russell, by the time Russell had got back to the table err he’d err they’d err they’d cooked another steak for him, it didn’t take very long and he literally I suppose just had about two bites of it when err Kate came running."  https://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/DIANE-WEBSTER-2.htm

The waiter said he kept his meal warm and said nothing about it being recooked! But it was held back a little bit to suggest it was.

My Conclusion: Russell received his meal at the same time as Kate left - 9:50pm

[Billy Whizz Fan Club]

Lets also put this on the correct thread

Quote from: Vertigo Swirl on July 03, 2020, 11:38:18 PM

    Right.  So the alarm must have actually been raised before 9.30pm then.  Well that throws a spanner in the works!

No he says he left the Tapas around 9:15 - 9:30 and his wife heard the girls name on the way back to their apartment. Pure speculation but the voice she heard may have been coming from 5a. It could have been someone carrying out the very first action following a "safe approach" in the CPR algorithm: "The majority of paediatric cardiorespiratory arrests are not caused by primary cardiac problems but are secondary to other causes, mostly respiratory insufficiency; hence the order of delivering the resuscitation sequence: airway (A),breathing (B), and circulation (C).Rescuers should [first] assess the responsiveness of a child"

[Venturi Swirl]

Lets also put this on the correct thread


No he says he left the Tapas around 9:15 - 9:30 and his wife heard the girls name on the way back to their apartment. Pure speculation but the voice she heard may have been coming from 5a. It could have been someone carrying out the very first action following a "safe approach" in the CPR algorithm: "The majority of paediatric cardiorespiratory arrests are not caused by primary cardiac problems but are secondary to other causes, mostly respiratory insufficiency; hence the order of delivering the resuscitation sequence: airway (A),breathing (B), and circulation (C).Rescuers should [first] assess the responsiveness of a child"

Right.  So Madeleine was still potentially alive and saveable up to 9.30pm, which means the dog alerts can’t be right.  Not enough time for cadaver odour to develop you see.  And which woman would have been trying to resuscitate her?  Bear in mind Gerry McCann had rejoined the table at this point, do you think it might have been him disguising his voice? 

[Lace]

Let's put this on the correct thread.

Quote from: Lace on Today at 04:24:21 PM
Well,  the waiter agrees with Russell about what time he arrived back at the table,  which was quarter to ten.  It took ten minutes for Russell to have his meal back and he had almost finished it when Kate give the alarm.  Dianne Webster says in her statement that Kate said 'she's gone Gerry'  so Gerry was at the table end of.

Matt said Kate left at 9:50 and they all agreed except Gerry that she wasn't gone very long before returning.

Russell received his meal at that time and had only had a few bites of his steak as Dianne Webster put it when Kate returned to raise the alarm. That discards your 9:55 time before he even got his meal!

"Well I mean Russell, by the time Russell had got back to the table err he’d err they’d err they’d cooked another steak for him, it didn’t take very long and he literally I suppose just had about two bites of it when err Kate came running."  https://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/DIANE-WEBSTER-2.htm

The waiter said he kept his meal warm and said nothing about it being recooked! But it was held back a little bit to suggest it was.

My Conclusion: Russell received his meal at the same time as Kate left - 9:50pm

Dianne Webster says further up in her statement that Russell was back about 10 to 10,  that they did a fresh steak for him and he was tucking into it when Kate came back.   Sorry but I believe that Russell waited about 10 before having his steak back making it 10o'clock which is when Kate left to check.   Matthew Oldfield also says this -

Reply 'It probably came up but seemed inappropriate to mention. But, erm, she went off to relieve Russell, as it were, to sort of take over, erm, sort of duties and make sure that Evie was alright and then Russell came back and they actually redid his food, erm, I mean, he was eating it when the next sort of checks went, which were about half an hour later'

Half an hour later so making it 10 o'clock.