Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?

[G-Unit]

There are those who passionately uphold the abduction theory despite the terrible odds against an abducted child surviving. It may be understandable for parents to hope, but the uninvolved must realise that it's not likely to have a happy ending.

Abduction by strangers is rare, but who does it? Statistically men commit most stranger abductions and 89% of the time they abduct children over 5 years of age. Often the desire has developed over time, so there may be some background offences. There is the impulsive abductor who is likely to be poorly educated, isolated and bad at planning. He is looking to connect and may think the victim will have a relationship with him. The planner is better educated, possibly married, but with desires he can't satisfy in the normal ways. He is ruthless and interested only in his own satisfaction.

Around 50% of stranger abductors assault their victims sexually and 88% kill within the first 24 hours.
http://ripleeforensicpsych.umwblogs.org/2011/12/15/child-abduction-a-theory-of-criminal-behavior/

 Child abduction only makes up 2% of all violent crimes against children and juveniles

So if 2% = 20 children then 10 of those will be family abductions. 5 will be acquaintances and 5 strangers. Of the stranger abductions 89% of the victims will be over 5. Few of those taken by non-family members will survive unscathed and the odds are that the child will come to serious harm.

[Eleanor]

I believe that Madeleine was abducted to be sold to a family.

[Mr Gray]

I believe that Madeleine was abducted to be sold to a family.

quite possible and something john was suggesting a few weeks ago

[Alice Purjorick]

If there were lost keys to Block G5 any incident points toward an abduction.

http://textusa1.rssing.com/chan-26005015/all_p4.html and other sources mentioned.
"The Sunday Express tracked down the maintenance worker who allegedly lost the keys, 29-year-old Tiago da Silva, who lives a few miles from Luz in Lagos, a pretty coastal town.

When we put it to him that keys were lost, he paused momentarily before saying: “That is not the case. I can’t remember any keys going missing. The keys in maintenance were kept in a safe and nobody could get to them.””

However an unnamed colleague insisted:

“I know what he told me at the time. The keys for all the blocks were kept on a cable and clearly marked.

He said he had lost the keys to block five. He told me in the same week when the little girl went missing. I am sure of this.

From my memory I think they were replaced with duplicate keys for the apartments which were held at reception. I remember all this very clearly. He did not want us to tell people about it, so we didn’t say anything.”

This, according to Sunday Express suggested “the kidnap was well planned and executed using stolen keys.”

Tiago da Silva, is in our opinion, the green plant in this group’s bouquet. To show Swinging BH Deciders that the burglary thesis hasn’t been abandoned completely.

But another way to look at Tiago da Silva being part of the list would be to highlight that from the Ocean Club 2 managers and 2 maintenance personnel were questioned, thus highlighting the maintenance area. You know, shutter fixings and washing machine operation lessons."

1.Why?
2. I do not find that surprising or indicative of anything but the obvious.

[G-Unit]

I believe that Madeleine was abducted to be sold to a family.

Why that child in particular?

[Robittybob1]

1.Why?
2. I do not find that surprising or indicative of anything but the obvious.

It is hard to look back and see if there is a connection but certainly if there has been an abduction people like servicemen, that have entered the apartment that week, need to be reinterviewed.

[Mr Gray]

Why that child in particular?

you would need to ask those who took her

[Robittybob1]

It is odd how the conscience of a killer plays on their mind and in the end they confess before they die.  Why do humans do this?

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/blame-the-amygdala/201212/when-serial-killers-commit-suicide
"Most serial killers fit the description of a psychopath; they are without conscience, have a very limited capacity for emotion and empathy, and are often tremendously narcissistic. With no conscience the serial killer will not be haunted by what they have done, meaning that they will not feel the huge amount of pain or anguish that those involved in crimes of passion or those in the military could feel after taking a life. Therefore, a guilty conscience is not going to drive them to suicide. A lack of empathy, too, means that they will not recreate and experience the suffering of their victims or their families."

[Mr Gray]

It is odd how the conscience of a killer plays on their mind and in the end they confess before they die.  Why do humans do this?

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/blame-the-amygdala/201212/when-serial-killers-commit-suicide
"Most serial killers fit the description of a psychopath; they are without conscience, have a very limited capacity for emotion and empathy, and are often tremendously narcissistic. With no conscience the serial killer will not be haunted by what they have done, meaning that they will not feel the huge amount of pain or anguish that those involved in crimes of passion or those in the military could feel after taking a life. Therefore, a guilty conscience is not going to drive them to suicide. A lack of empathy, too, means that they will not recreate and experience the suffering of their victims or their families."

one doesnt have to believe in a god to have a conscience

[Alfie]

There are those who passionately uphold the abduction theory despite the terrible odds against an abducted child surviving. It may be understandable for parents to hope, but the uninvolved must realise that it's not likely to have a happy ending.

Abduction by strangers is rare, but who does it? Statistically men commit most stranger abductions and 89% of the time they abduct children over 5 years of age. Often the desire has developed over time, so there may be some background offences. There is the impulsive abductor who is likely to be poorly educated, isolated and bad at planning. He is looking to connect and may think the victim will have a relationship with him. The planner is better educated, possibly married, but with desires he can't satisfy in the normal ways. He is ruthless and interested only in his own satisfaction.

Around 50% of stranger abductors assault their victims sexually and 88% kill within the first 24 hours.
http://ripleeforensicpsych.umwblogs.org/2011/12/15/child-abduction-a-theory-of-criminal-behavior/

 Child abduction only makes up 2% of all violent crimes against children and juveniles

So if 2% = 20 children then 10 of those will be family abductions. 5 will be acquaintances and 5 strangers. Of the stranger abductions 89% of the victims will be over 5. Few of those taken by non-family members will survive unscathed and the odds are that the child will come to serious harm.

What an odd post.  You seem to be under the impression that those of us who are believe Madeleine was abducted do so because we hope she is still alive.  That is not the reason why I believe she was abducted nor do I think it very likely that she is still alive.

[Robittybob1]

one doesnt have to believe in a god to have a conscience

How does a conscience evolve?  I never mentioned deities.  I'm just wondering how a child develops a conscience.
Are we taught to have a conscience or are we born with it?

[John]

How does a conscience evolve?  I never mentioned deities.  I'm just wondering how a child develops a conscience.
Are we taught to have a conscience or are we born with it?

Human instinct.

[Robittybob1]

Human instinct.

Did you know I have tried to discuss instinct on the science forums and no one could explain it, for to me instinct is passed on in the genes and no one could comprehend how that is encoded in the DNA.

[G-Unit]

I have no idea...the evidence points to stranger abduction but is not that specific

So you don't have a plausible logical theory of abduction, just a belief that it happened.

[G-Unit]

What an odd post.  You seem to be under the impression that those of us who are believe Madeleine was abducted do so because we hope she is still alive.  That is not the reason why I believe she was abducted nor do I think it very likely that she is still alive.

Some think she is, but the odds are very much against that.