Author Topic: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?  (Read 101632 times)

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Offline G-Unit

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #420 on: January 26, 2017, 12:45:50 PM »
Apartment 5A was described by the UK police as a 'burglar's dream' (words to that effect).   If an abduction was being seriously and carefully pre-planned by more than one person,  it could be that 5A had already been taragetted as extremely suitable and they were just waiting and watching for a 'suitable' family to come along.

It would only take a couple of days to become familiarised with the regular evening movements of the McCanns, who IIRC liked routine.  Prior knowledge of a regular routine which involved leaving the children asleep in their apartment for periods of time, would be extremely helpful to any would-be abductor.

According to Kate McCann;

Later, we were told by the British police that the ground-floor location, access to roads front and side, secluded entrance and partial tree cover made our apartment a prime target for burglars and other criminals. [Madeleine]

According to burglars, their first priority when choosing a property to target is the expected yield. Therefore well-kept properties were attractive.
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110218135832/http:/rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs04/r249.pdf

Choosing the property first and then waiting for a suitable family suggests people who either live nearby or work close by. Choosing a 3/4 year old is not typical.

Observing the family has to include observing the group because they all went back and forth. As already posted,
the only night all the group were at the Tapas was Monday, so a couple of day's observation might not have given them the information they needed to be sure of enough undisturbed time.



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Online Eleanor

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #421 on: January 26, 2017, 12:50:09 PM »
It is the perfect ruse for being on someone's property.  These so-called charity collectors would most probably know the Luz area extremely well and would know when new guests had arrived.  The locals on the other hand being permanent residents would be well aware of their activities.

So are we agreed, there is no plausible logical theory of abduction from 5a?

  No, we aren't.

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #422 on: January 26, 2017, 01:58:09 PM »
It is the perfect ruse for being on someone's property.  These so-called charity collectors would most probably know the Luz area extremely well and would know when new guests had arrived.  The locals on the other hand being permanent residents would be well aware of their activities.

So are we agreed, there is no plausible logical theory of abduction from 5a?
On what basis?

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #423 on: January 26, 2017, 02:00:24 PM »
It's interesting that while the apartment seemed to be so vulnerable no former resident had ever actually been burgled.

It is also interesting that the 'bogus charity collector' angle seems to have been pushed quite forceably by the McCanns and their agents, and no one else, even though they themselves where never approached by charity collectors at any time during their stay.
So, would you consider apartment 5a, on the corner and next to two roads, ground floor and unlocked not to be particularly vulnerable then?  And yet hasn't this argument been used against the McCanns by those pushing the neglect angle, ie: that they left their children in such a vulnerable location?  Vulnerable to outside forces, or not really, in your view?

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #424 on: January 26, 2017, 02:02:28 PM »
According to Kate McCann;

Later, we were told by the British police that the ground-floor location, access to roads front and side, secluded entrance and partial tree cover made our apartment a prime target for burglars and other criminals. [Madeleine]

According to burglars, their first priority when choosing a property to target is the expected yield. Therefore well-kept properties were attractive.
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110218135832/http:/rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs04/r249.pdf

Choosing the property first and then waiting for a suitable family suggests people who either live nearby or work close by. Choosing a 3/4 year old is not typical.

Observing the family has to include observing the group because they all went back and forth. As already posted,
the only night all the group were at the Tapas was Monday, so a couple of day's observation might not have given them the information they needed to be sure of enough undisturbed time.
As the apartment (and the missing child) pertained to the McCanns, what information might have been gleaned by observer(s) about their evening routine over the six days or so prior to the disappearance?

Offline faithlilly

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #425 on: January 26, 2017, 02:10:59 PM »
So, would you consider apartment 5a, on the corner and next to two roads, ground floor and unlocked not to be particularly vulnerable then?  And yet hasn't this argument been used against the McCanns by those pushing the neglect angle, ie: that they left their children in such a vulnerable location?  Vulnerable to outside forces, or not really, in your view?

Read my post again. I didn't say the apartment isn't vulnerable simply that no one had reported being broken into.
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Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #426 on: January 26, 2017, 02:17:07 PM »
So, would you consider apartment 5a, on the corner and next to two roads, ground floor and unlocked not to be particularly vulnerable then?  And yet hasn't this argument been used against the McCanns by those pushing the neglect angle, ie: that they left their children in such a vulnerable location?  Vulnerable to outside forces, or not really, in your view?
Hasn't this been raised before?  Bit of a hoisted-by-ones-own-petard here, IMO.

Was Luz safe enough that leaving a patio door both unlocked and obviously unlocked made sense?

Or was 5A simply ripe for the plucking and two highly educated people acted as thick as two short planks?

And the hindsight view of some 'expert' pontificating after Madeleine had vanished is of no importance.  Goodness only knows how many supposed experts have spouted rubbish even with the benefit of hindsight.

So, should the undoubtedly intelligent McCanns be castigated for failing to recognise the alleged security issues of 5A?  Was 5A inherently less secure than 5B or 5D?  Both were ground floor, had a front door, the same shutter mechanism, and a rear patio door that locked from the inside only.
What's up, old man?

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #427 on: January 26, 2017, 02:19:09 PM »
  No, we aren't.
Stop beating about the bush, Eleanor.   8((()*/
What's up, old man?

Offline Angelo222

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #428 on: January 26, 2017, 02:32:07 PM »
  No, we aren't.

Easy to say but I haven't seen you offer any plausible logical theory based on evidence?   Semantics just don't cut the mustard, its evidence which counts.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2017, 02:36:11 PM by Angelo222 »
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Offline Angelo222

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #429 on: January 26, 2017, 02:37:30 PM »
On what basis?

On the very simple basis that nobody has been able to point to any evidence to support an abduction from the apartment.  The McCanns saying oh she was there when we left but is now gone carries little weight imo.

Abduction from the street is another matter. A child who has been shown to be unsettled at night when her parents are out enjoying themselves, a patio door left unlocked, an unlocked gate leading to a public road just metres away.  Then we have an established FRESH scent trail from the apartment down the street, across it to a car park where it mysteriously stops. That all adds up to me.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2017, 02:45:21 PM by Angelo222 »
De troothe has the annoying habit of coming to the surface just when you least expect it!!

Je ne regrette rien!!

Online Eleanor

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #430 on: January 26, 2017, 02:57:15 PM »
Stop beating about the bush, Eleanor.   8((()*/

Sorry, sorry.  I'll be a bit more definite in future.

Online Eleanor

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #431 on: January 26, 2017, 02:58:36 PM »
Easy to say but I haven't seen you offer any plausible logical theory based on evidence?   Semantics just don't cut the mustard, its evidence which counts.

It has already been explained by Shining that this could involve Libel, and we don't want that.  Do we?

Offline Angelo222

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #432 on: January 26, 2017, 03:12:25 PM »
It has already been explained by Shining that this could involve Libel, and we don't want that.  Do we?

Don't be silly. The parents only think she was abducted from the apartment so pointing out that the evidence doesn't support that proposition isn't libel.  I for one believe that they are as much in the dark about the disappearance as everyone is but I don't hold with an abduction from the apartment.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2017, 03:16:05 PM by Angelo222 »
De troothe has the annoying habit of coming to the surface just when you least expect it!!

Je ne regrette rien!!

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #433 on: January 26, 2017, 03:24:42 PM »
On the very simple basis that nobody has been able to point to any evidence to support an abduction from the apartment.  The McCanns saying oh she was there when we left but is now gone carries little weight imo.

Abduction from the street is another matter. A child who has been shown to be unsettled at night when her parents are out enjoying themselves, a patio door left unlocked, an unlocked gate leading to a public road just metres away.  Then we have an established FRESH scent trail from the apartment down the street, across it to a car park where it mysteriously stops. That all adds up to me.
I'm sorry Angelo but simply saying there is no evidence of abduction doesn't make a theory of abduction implausible or illogical.  You would need a positive reason (ie not an absence of evidence, but evidence of something else that could help rule it out) to demonstrate that abduction was neither plausible nor logical.    Your theory relies on the McCanns staging an abduction (opening the window) as well as there being an actual abduction which is IMO highly implausible. 

Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #434 on: January 26, 2017, 03:25:49 PM »
Read my post again. I didn't say the apartment isn't vulnerable simply that no one had reported being broken into.
So is it vulnerable or not, in your opinion?