Mark Williams-Thomas suggests Madeleine woke, wandered and was abducted.

[pegasus]

Have you ever explained what this 'simpler direct explanation' actually is?

Genuine question as I forget what might already  have been said on this subject.

Yes, the simpler direct explanation is- Window and shutter opened from outside. Incidentally, that fixes the biggest 3 holes in the the Williams-Thomas and O'Connor theories.

[pegasus]

So what does hat say for Grime's expert opinon

BTW I have revived this thread to look at expert MWT's theory, and I think you may be very interested in it, because as presented, it discards the dog alerts, and it is an abduction theory.

[ShiningInLuz]

Both of them believe that opportunistic abduction is much more likely than planned abduction. Williams-Thomas gives as an example the Whiting case. O'Connor gives as an example the Huntley case. Both those cases were completely opportunistic abduction.

Thank you for replying, Pegasus.

[Admin]

BTW I have revived this thread to look at expert MWT's theory, and I think you may be very interested in it, because as presented, it discards the dog alerts, and it is an abduction theory.

Abducted after she awoke and wandered?  My own view on this is that if she awoke and wandered she was more likely to have met with an unfortunate accident than she was to have been abducted.

[ShiningInLuz]

Lightweight is good. Errors and holes aren't. What do you think is the single biggest error/hole in MWT's theory?

If I have got this correct ...
1) Madeleine wakes and wanders.  Please note, I consider this possible, but improbable.
2) An opportunistic predator in Luz sees Madeleine and snatches her.  On this point, I am in disbelief.  It is simply that, everything would point to Madeleine heading downhill the short distance to the Tapas area, with which she was familiar (high tea, playtime and pool) OR taking the shortcut to the Mini Club in Ocean Club reception, where she spent most of her time.  Both journeys are short, so this opportunistic predator had to be faster than the Flash.
3) On top of 1 and 2 we have to have staging.  The possibility of staging exists, so I am not ruling it out. 

However, we now have low probability 1 x low probability 2 x low probability 3.  Not impossible, but there are more likely scenarios.

I haven't reread the entire thread, but if MWT is the one who had the dogs going totally the wrong way in support of his theory, then I think his credibility as an 'expert' on the case is holed below the waterline about as badly as the Titanic was.

[Lyall]

Have you read the Danny Collins book, Shining?

[pegasus]

Abducted after she awoke and wandered?  My own view on this is that if she awoke and wandered she was more likely to have met with an unfortunate accident than she was to have been abducted.

Agreed. But then one could argue that an accident in a pubic area would be probably discovered.

[slartibartfast]

Agreed. But then one could argue that an accident in a pubic area would be probably discovered.

Probably by one of the many people going backward and forward in the area at that time.

[Alfred R Jones]

Abducted after she awoke and wandered?  My own view on this is that if she awoke and wandered she was more likely to have met with an unfortunate accident than she was to have been abducted.

An unfortunate accident that rendered her invisible?  What sort of an accident is it possible for her to have had leaving not one single trace?

[pegasus]

If I have got this correct ...
1) Madeleine wakes and wanders.  Please note, I consider this possible, but improbable.
2) An opportunistic predator in Luz sees Madeleine and snatches her.  On this point, I am in disbelief.  It is simply that, everything would point to Madeleine heading downhill the short distance to the Tapas area, with which she was familiar (high tea, playtime and pool) OR taking the shortcut to the Mini Club in Ocean Club reception, where she spent most of her time.  Both journeys are short, so this opportunistic predator had to be faster than the Flash.
3) On top of 1 and 2 we have to have staging.  The possibility of staging exists, so I am not ruling it out. 

However, we now have low probability 1 x low probability 2 x low probability 3.  Not impossible, but there are more likely scenarios.

I haven't reread the entire thread, but if MWT is the one who had the dogs going totally the wrong way in support of his theory, then I think his credibility as an 'expert' on the case is holed below the waterline about as badly as the Titanic was.

1. Yes that was MWT's theory, and O'Connor's theory too.
2. Both theories have exit out balcony door then downhill towards tapas reception entrance (one of the theories continues further downhill to supermarket carpark).
3. Neither theory offers any explanation for the open window and shutter.

[ShiningInLuz]

An unfortunate accident that rendered her invisible?  What sort of an accident is it possible for her to have had leaving not one single trace?

Just one trace.

Human blood at Quinta dos Figos, Luz, tested 6 May 2007.  Entered the evidence chain, then seems to have disappeared.

Suspect in this scenario - drunk driver, of which Luz has many.

Problem is that Quinta dos Figos is uphill from 5A, in an area that Madeleine had not visited, so the blood is probably from a drunk falling over on the pavement.

[ShiningInLuz]

Have you read the Danny Collins book, Shining?

No, I haven't. 

If you could serve up a 30 word précis I would be genuinely grateful for the time that you have saved me.

[pegasus]

... downhill ...

There is a path going diagonally from Rua FGDMartins to supermarket carpark, is that downhill?
And another question, is driving OTL more common there than in UK?

[Alfred R Jones]

Just one trace.

Human blood at Quinta dos Figos, Luz, tested 6 May 2007.  Entered the evidence chain, then seems to have disappeared.

Suspect in this scenario - drunk driver, of which Luz has many.

Problem is that Quinta dos Figos is uphill from 5A, in an area that Madeleine had not visited, so the blood is probably from a drunk falling over on the pavement.

Then my statement stands - not one trace.

[ferryman]

No, I haven't. 

If you could serve up a 30 word précis I would be genuinely grateful for the time that you have saved me.

Not sure if someone has beaten me to the punch, here, but in summary, Collins favours woke, wandered and snatched by a paedophile.

Collins' book was written well before the files were released and he relates one, apparent, incident I can find no reference to anywhere else where Gerry is supposed to have chased Madeleine and caught up with her in someone's garden (if I recall correctly).

No clue where Collins got that from ....