Mark Williams-Thomas suggests Madeleine woke, wandered and was abducted.

[pegasus]

It is a theory, but one without a modicum of proof to support it and the majority of investigators have moved on from there ... Scotland Yard and the Policia Judiciaria being the latest.

Obviously not proof, but an indication favouring MWT's and O'Cs theories, which by the way they they missed, is the fact that in the files is a document which states that one of the checkers found the child-gate at the top of the stairs, and I quote, "possibly open".

[Brietta]

Obviously not proof, but an indication favouring MWT's and O'Cs theories, which by the way they they missed, is the fact that in the files is a document which states that one of the checkers found the child-gate at the top of the stairs, and I quote, "possibly open".

"Possibly open" really isn't good enough to explain what happened to Madeleine, which is why the majority of investigators with many years of policing between them who have commented on her case go for abduction rather than woke and wandered.

[pegasus]

"Possibly open" really isn't good enough to explain what happened to Madeleine, which is why the majority of investigators with many years of policing between them who have commented on her case go for abduction rather than woke and wandered.

But MWT's theory is an abduction theory Brietta.

[G-Unit]

But MWT's theory is an abduction theory Brietta.

It is indeed, but the fact that the child was wandering when abducted won't do, Pegasus. That means that the vile predator didn't need to plan, watch, wait and pounce by entering the apartment. There  was no need to violate the space of the family, the child was left in a situation so unsafe she could wander off and into danger at will. Of course there is no evidence that she didn't, except that provided by the group. The evidence provided by the parents? Flat denial that it could have happened, no real reasons why it didn't happen that way, apart from a few references to gates.

[Miss Taken Identity]

"Possibly open" really isn't good enough to explain what happened to Madeleine, which is why the majority of investigators with many years of policing between them who have commented on her case go for abduction rather than woke and wandered.

Possibly abducted, via a window isn't really good enough to explain what happened to Madeleine either.

Majority of investigators? I think they all looked into that scenario, nothing has been set in stone so please do not say it as a given they have ruled in or out any other theory.

[Brietta]

But MWT's theory is an abduction theory Brietta.

So there was a perfect storm of crime in that tiny corner of Luz on that particular evening?  Or is it like that normally?

Burglar frightens child who runs ... straight into the hands of a passing kidnapper.

No wonder it would have solved so many problems for the authorities if Madeleine's disappearance could have been safely pinned on her mother following precedent.

[G-Unit]

So there was a perfect storm of crime in that tiny corner of Luz on that particular evening?  Or is it like that normally?

Burglar frightens child who runs ... straight into the hands of a passing kidnapper.

No wonder it would have solved so many problems for the authorities if Madeleine's disappearance could have been safely pinned on her mother following precedent.

No burglar in MWT's theory.

[Mr Gray]

No burglar in MWT's theory.

and no parental involvement

[G-Unit]

and no parental involvement

Depends what you mean by involvement. Open doors, absent parents, wandering child; whoops! He ignored the alleged open window/shutters too. Now who the heck opened them if Madeleine simply wandered off?

[Mr Gray]

Depends what you mean by involvement. Open doors, absent parents, wandering child; whoops! He ignored the alleged open window/shutters too. Now who the heck opened them if Madeleine simply wandered off?

then that points to maddie not wandering off

[pegasus]

Yes as G-Unit and Davel have pointed out -
MWT's published theory is that the child wandered onto the street and near tapas reception was abducted by an opportunistic abductor.
No burglar.
No parental involvement.
No preplanning.

MWT has lots of police experience and correctly points out that opportunistic abduction is far more likely than pre-planned abduction.
He gives the example of the evil RWhiting case - no preplanning - sees child alone on street - instant decision - opportunistic.

[pegasus]

Depends what you mean by involvement. Open doors, absent parents, wandering child; whoops! He ignored the alleged open window/shutters too. Now who the heck opened them if Madeleine simply wandered off?

Already posted on this thread is a report which claims incident at another resort a child whose parents were out to dinner climbed out a window and wandered.

[Brietta]

Yes as G-Unit and Davel have pointed out -
MWT's published theory is that the child wandered onto the street and near tapas reception was abducted by an opportunistic abductor.
No burglar.
No parental involvement.
No preplanning.

MWT has lots of police experience and correctly points out that opportunistic abduction is far more likely than pre-planned abduction.
He gives the example of evil RWhiting - no preplanning - sees child alone on street - instant decision - opportunistic.

I was incorporating previous discussion into my post.

I am well aware of Mark Williams-Thomas theory

Also the fact that he had certainly had picked up enough to form a very succinct opinion of the initial investigation based on his own policing experience.

Wonder what he made of it all when the case was shelved and there was access to the files.

**Snip
The detailed examination of a scene plays a crucial part in any major investigation and after a critical incident like this, all police officers know it is vital to preserve the crime scene, build the foundations, complete forensics and identify possible witnesses immediately.

But I saw no evidence of this being done and it was without any doubt, the worst-preserved crime scene I have ever witnessed.

This investigation is like no other I have seen before or will hopefully ever see again.

For the past year the Portuguese police have had two lines of inquiry: the first, that Gerry and Kate were involved in Madeleine's disappearance and the second, that a stranger abducted her.

However, they have focused steadfastly on their first line of enquiry.
http://news.sky.com/story/599836/madeleine-my-theories-on-missing-girl

[G-Unit]

I was incorporating previous discussion into my post.

I am well aware of Mark Williams-Thomas theory

Also the fact that he had certainly had picked up enough to form a very succinct opinion of the initial investigation based on his own policing experience.

Wonder what he made of it all when the case was shelved and there was access to the files.

**Snip
The detailed examination of a scene plays a crucial part in any major investigation and after a critical incident like this, all police officers know it is vital to preserve the crime scene, build the foundations, complete forensics and identify possible witnesses immediately.

But I saw no evidence of this being done and it was without any doubt, the worst-preserved crime scene I have ever witnessed.

This investigation is like no other I have seen before or will hopefully ever see again.

For the past year the Portuguese police have had two lines of inquiry: the first, that Gerry and Kate were involved in Madeleine's disappearance and the second, that a stranger abducted her.

However, they have focused steadfastly on their first line of enquiry.
http://news.sky.com/story/599836/madeleine-my-theories-on-missing-girl

It seems to me that MWT relies a lot on assumptions. He absolutely rules out parental involvement, despite the statistics. He never gives a reason for ruling them out, he just does it, even though he accepts they had the opportunity;

So one or more of the parents did have the opportunity
http://news.sky.com/story/599836/madeleine-my-theories-on-missing-girl

In 2006-7 55 children were killed in the UK, 24 of them by their parents. Two thirds of them were under 5 years of age. Stranger abductions and murder have remained static at between 5-7 a year since 1970.
http://williams-thomas.co.uk/sites/default/files/Review%20of%20Madeleiene%20McCann%20Investigation.pdf

So we can assume that of the 55 killed in the above year 7 at the most were abducted and killed by strangers, 24 were killed by parents and 24 by other people known to the child.

[Alfred R Jones]

It seems to me that MWT relies a lot on assumptions. He absolutely rules out parental involvement, despite the statistics. He never gives a reason for ruling them out, he just does it, even though he accepts they had the opportunity;

So one or more of the parents did have the opportunity
http://news.sky.com/story/599836/madeleine-my-theories-on-missing-girl

In 2006-7 55 children were killed in the UK, 24 of them by their parents. Two thirds of them were under 5 years of age. Stranger abductions and murder have remained static at between 5-7 a year since 1970.
http://williams-thomas.co.uk/sites/default/files/Review%20of%20Madeleiene%20McCann%20Investigation.pdf

So we can assume that of the 55 killed in the above year 7 at the most were abducted and killed by strangers, 24 were killed by parents and 24 by other people known to the child.

why should statistics come into play when reviewing the evidence of any one particular case?