Mark Williams-Thomas suggests Madeleine woke, wandered and was abducted.

[Mr Gray]

It seems to me that MWT relies a lot on assumptions. He absolutely rules out parental involvement, despite the statistics. He never gives a reason for ruling them out, he just does it, even though he accepts they had the opportunity;

So one or more of the parents did have the opportunity
http://news.sky.com/story/599836/madeleine-my-theories-on-missing-girl

In 2006-7 55 children were killed in the UK, 24 of them by their parents. Two thirds of them were under 5 years of age. Stranger abductions and murder have remained static at between 5-7 a year since 1970.
http://williams-thomas.co.uk/sites/default/files/Review%20of%20Madeleiene%20McCann%20Investigation.pdf

So we can assume that of the 55 killed in the above year 7 at the most were abducted and killed by strangers, 24 were killed by parents and 24 by other people known to the child.

you are quoting figures for chidren killed/murdered. No one has suggested maddie was murdered by her parents. If you are going to quote statistics you should learn to understand them

[misty]

It seems to me that MWT relies a lot on assumptions. He absolutely rules out parental involvement, despite the statistics. He never gives a reason for ruling them out, he just does it, even though he accepts they had the opportunity;

So one or more of the parents did have the opportunity
http://news.sky.com/story/599836/madeleine-my-theories-on-missing-girl

In 2006-7 55 children were killed in the UK, 24 of them by their parents. Two thirds of them were under 5 years of age. Stranger abductions and murder have remained static at between 5-7 a year since 1970.
http://williams-thomas.co.uk/sites/default/files/Review%20of%20Madeleiene%20McCann%20Investigation.pdf

So we can assume that of the 55 killed in the above year 7 at the most were abducted and killed by strangers, 24 were killed by parents and 24 by other people known to the child.

Less than 50% probability Madeleine was killed by her parents, if she is even dead. Perhaps that should be your starting point.

[G-Unit]

why should statistics come into play when reviewing the evidence of any one particular case?

It's necessary to read the whole of his review, really. He is demonstrating why the PJ were right to investigate parental involvement, but they should have investigated them at the beginning. (He assumes they would have been ruled out, but he's not really clear why he thinks that)

[Mr Gray]

It's necessary to read the whole of his review, really. He is demonstrating why the PJ were right to investigate parental involvement, but they should have investigated them at the beginning. (He assumes they would have been ruled out, but he's not really clear why he thinks that)

we all understand the statistics and that parents should always be investigated first...but these statistics are referring to children harmed deliberately by parents....I could go on and further explain the statistics to you but it is pointless

[slartibartfast]

we all understand the statistics and that parents should always be investigated first...but these statistics are referring to children harmed deliberately by parents....I could go on and further explain the statistics to you but it is pointless

In a case of which the cause is unknown those are the statistics to use to direct the priorities for investigation.

[Mr Gray]

In a case of which the cause is unknown those are the statistics to use to direct the priorities for investigation.

you look at the parents and statistically the mccanns do not fit the statistical model of parents who harm children

[stephen25000]

you look at the parents and statistically the mccanns do not fit the statistical model of parents who harm children

What statistics are you referring to and what 'model' do they not fit ?

[slartibartfast]

you look at the parents and statistically the mccanns do not fit the statistical model of parents who harm children

Why?

[pegasus]

from other thread ...

I wonder how long it would take fro a child to wake, exit the apartment and wander to the entrance to the Tapas compound.....(snip)

1 minute IMO.

[G-Unit]

you are quoting figures for chidren killed/murdered. No one has suggested maddie was murdered by her parents. If you are going to quote statistics you should learn to understand them

Tell MWT, not me. They are his quoted reason why the parents should always be investigated when a child disappears.

[Mr Gray]

Why?

look at children harmed by parents... I can't be bothered to look up the statisitics now

non biological parents
history of hard drug abuse
low socio economic group
low intelligence
history of abuse


then of course there would be a conspiracy by the tapas to cover up a murder

[G-Unit]

from other thread ...1 minute IMO.

I think the checkers quoted one minute to reach the gate, but they were adults with a purpose. A three year old wakes, calls out for parents a few times then gets up to see if she can find anyone. She visits all the other rooms, slowly because she's not supposed to get out of bed. She discovers she's alone. She goes to the patio window next  to look out and notices it's not quite closed. She thinks about this, then exits onto the balcony. She can hear people at the Tapas perhaps. She pauses to think again. She sees that the child gate is open, or she decides to open it. down the steps, open the bottom gate and peer out. More thinking. Children don't have the purposeful movements of adults. If she decides Mummy and Daddy are at the Tapas she might then run for it.

At least five minutes from leaving her bed, imo.

[pegasus]

I think the checkers quoted one minute to reach the gate, but they were adults with a purpose. A three year old wakes, calls out for parents a few times then gets up to see if she can find anyone. She visits all the other rooms, slowly because she's not supposed to get out of bed. She discovers she's alone. She goes to the patio window next  to look out and notices it's not quite closed. She thinks about this, then exits onto the balcony. She can hear people at the Tapas perhaps. She pauses to think again. She sees that the child gate is open, or she decides to open it. down the steps, open the bottom gate and peer out. More thinking. Children don't have the purposeful movements of adults. If she decides Mummy and Daddy are at the Tapas she might then run for it.

At least five minutes from leaving her bed, imo.

Yes but if scared by someone opening window from outside, and if knew where parents were and headed straight there, it would barefoot take a minute or less to get to near tapas reception IMO.
 

[slartibartfast]

look at children harmed by parents... I can't be bothered to look up the statisitics now

non biological parents
history of hard drug abuse
low socio economic group
low intelligence
history of abuse


then of course there would be a conspiracy by the tapas to cover up a murder

No, I think that is just your prejudices showing.

[Mr Gray]

No, I think that is just your prejudices showing.

then you think wrong....in the early days there was a statement from an expert in the field who said the mccanns did not fit the profile...do you think they may have murdered maddie