Theory #1

[misty]

I agree with that too[gosh!].
After Mr Cameron dropped The Met in it, ankle deep head first, by insisting they conducted a "review" it is not beyond the realms of possibility that The Met/ UK Judiciary had to go cap in hand to the Portuguese Judiciary requesting they reopen the case. Otherwise there was a distinct  possibility the Met Review would go nowhere fast, them having no jurisdiction in the place where it all happened.

Can't be 'aving that; I'll have to up my game.
 Tannerman still features on OFM website so I guess he's not as eliminated as so many people believe.

[Robittybob1]

The aborted burglary theory would not involve a villain at both doors imo - double the risk of being seen/caught.
Any potential burglar would have needed to arrive unseen, carry out the job, then leave unseen. To steal large or heavy goods, a vehicle would have been needed close-by. Where was it & why did the person choose to circumvent Block 5 rather than go out the patio door, down the steps & cross the road to the place where the scent was lost? IMO it would be more suspicious to be seen coming out of the alleyway than the side gate of 5A.

Do you think Madeleine had been told that Mummy or Daddy would be coming back every half hour to check on them?   So what happens if she was up when Matt arrived at the patio door, who would she think that was?    OK if it wasn't Matt at the patio door, could it have been some other friendly person?  It doesn't have to be a villain at both doors to be frightened as Madeleine has no means of working out who's who at the patio door.

[Robittybob1]

I agree.
The face value would be she woke up to find mum and dad missing, being we are to led to believe a strong willed single minded little girl, then went to look for them.

But which door does she go out of if for any reason she heard the child gate open and close?

[misty]

Do you think Madeleine had been told that Mummy or Daddy would be coming back every half hour to check on them?   So what happens if she was up when Matt arrived at the patio door, who would she think that was?    OK if it wasn't Matt at the patio door, could it have been some other friendly person?  It doesn't have to be a villain at both doors to be frightened as Madeleine has no means of working out who's who at the patio door.

I think the point of this thread is to discuss an aborted burglary involving the window/shutter & Madeleine exiting via the front door. Being frightened by Matt entering via the patio door would not explain the open window/shutter.

IMO.

[Robittybob1]

I think the point of this thread is to discuss an aborted burglary involving the window/shutter & Madeleine exiting via the front door. Being frightened by Matt entering via the patio door would not explain the open window/shutter.

IMO.

I was responding to your comment Misty: "The aborted burglary theory would not involve a villain at both doors imo - double the risk of being seen/caught." 

The point I'm making is that the burglar doesn't have to be at both doors and at the window.  It is Madeleine who has to be able to comprehend who is at the door.  If she was woken by the burglar and then hears someone approaching toward the patio door how did she comprehend that?  What does she do?

[misty]

I was responding to your comment Misty: "The aborted burglary theory would not involve a villain at both doors imo - double the risk of being seen/caught." 

The point I'm making is that the burglar doesn't have to be at both doors and at the window.  It is Madeleine who has to be able to comprehend who is at the door.  If she was woken by the burglar and then hears someone approaching toward the patio door how did she comprehend that?  What does she do?

If she left her bed to look for her parents after being disturbed by a noise at the window, where do you think she was when Matthew entered through the patio door? Would she not have thought her parents were coming back in & rushed towards the patio door?

[Alice Purjorick]

But which door does she go out of if for any reason she heard the child gate open and close?

That makes two persons[burgulars] or one burgular and one checker.
One coming up the steps and one coming round the front to gain access to the window....

[Robittybob1]

If she left her bed to look for her parents after being disturbed by a noise at the window, where do you think she was when Matthew entered through the patio door? Would she not have thought her parents were coming back in & rushed towards the patio door?

There is the eternally unexplained open door to the kids bedroom found open at Matt's check.  Gerry found the door open at 9:05 replaced it and then Matt also finds the door moved.  I think he checks if Madeleine went into the main bedroom but doesn't do a full check of the apartment.  So it is possible she could have been hiding somewhere else in the apartment, something like Kate thought initially too. Matt did not touch the door so it was found open by Kate too.   She immediately thought it was Matt who had moved it but it was open before Matt's check.

"Would she not have thought her parents were coming back in & rushed towards the patio door?"  No not if she is frightened.

[Robittybob1]

That makes two persons[burgulars] or one burgular and one checker.
One coming up the steps and one coming round the front to gain access to the window....

Exactly.  When you are doing a burglary it is possible to be encountered by another person, and to wake up sleeping children.  They need to have ways to deal with events like this.
So you shouldn't be surprised by this.  Especially as they are at the same building but on different sides of the building.

[misty]

There is the eternally unexplained open door to the kids bedroom found open at Matt's check.  Gerry found the door open at 9:05 replaced it and then Matt also finds the door moved.  I think he checks if Madeleine went into the main bedroom but doesn't do a full check of the apartment.  So it is possible she could have been hiding somewhere else in the apartment, something like Kate thought initially too. Matt did not touch the door so it was found open by Kate too.   She immediately thought it was Matt who had moved it but it was open before Matt's check.

"Would she not have thought her parents were coming back in & rushed towards the patio door?"  No not if she is frightened.

For this thread, we are considering Madeleine leaving only by the main door, apparently consistent with the route followed by the S&R dogs just over 24hrs after she disappeared. She did not leave during Matt's visit or make any audible noises of distress.
Why wouldn't she have rushed towards someone coming through the patio door? Wouldn't she have believed that her absent parents were coming in from the balcony?

[Robittybob1]

For this thread, we are considering Madeleine leaving only by the main door, apparently consistent with the route followed by the S&R dogs just over 24hrs after she disappeared. She did not leave during Matt's visit or make any audible noises of distress.
Why wouldn't she have rushed towards someone coming through the patio door? Wouldn't she have believed that her absent parents were coming in from the balcony?

There has to be some event between Madeleine being woken and her escaping via the front door.  I would not think it likely that Madeleine was aware there was a burglar at the kid's window and then running out the front door since the door and the window are on the same side of the building.

We don't know when Madeleine left the apartment.  So I would question how you would know: "She did not leave during Matt's visit or make any audible noises of distress"?
Even though I tend to agree with you that it wasn't likely during Matt's check.

[Brietta]

There has to be some event between Madeleine being woken and her escaping via the front door.  I would not think it likely that Madeleine was aware there was a burglar at the kid's window and then running out the front door since the door and the window are on the same side of the building.

All hypothetically speaking.

[Alice Purjorick]

Exactly.  When you are doing a burglary it is possible to be encountered by another person, and to wake up sleeping children.  They need to have ways to deal with events like this.
So you shouldn't be surprised by this.  Especially as they are at the same building but on different sides of the building.

To cover every eventuality here, i.e to avoid having to fight his way out the burgular would have needed at least two lookouts who were prepared to "come the heavy" if necessary. That is not the MO of your typical burgular [see any insurance company website for burgulars MOs].
I doubt it works at 37.0909° N, 8.7591° W though as that seems to be in a time -space continuum of its own where no known laws of anything can apply; well if you believe this forum it is.

[John]

Madeleine was familiar with going out the front door as it was used every day.  She was also used to going along the outside corridor in the direction of the children's club located beside the tennis courts.  The parents even mention that she would run ahead such was her confidence.

[Robittybob1]

All hypothetically speaking.

We are trying to link the findings to a theory, so it is all hypothetical.