I would suggest that if the jury hadn't believed Julie Mugford, JB would not have been convicted. The only remaining question was of course, had JB been acquitted, would Muggy have been done for perjury?
The prosecution case against JB was made up of many different aspects as stated in the 2002 appeal:
151. The prosecution relied upon the following areas of evidence:
i) The appellant's expressed dislike of his family;
ii) His speaking of his plans to kill his family and thereafter his confessions to his girlfriend, Julie Mugford;
iii) The finding of his mother's bicycle at Goldhanger;
iv) The appellant's admitted ability to effect covert entry into and exit from the farmhouse and the finding of the hacksaw blade outside the bathroom window. His claim to have entered the house in that way after the first arrest was an attempt to explain these findings;
v) Because on the facts of the case it could only have been the appellant or Sheila Caffell who carried out the killings, the factors below proved they were not the responsibility of the appellant's sister:
a) Although seriously mentally ill, there had been no indication of any deterioration in her mental health in the days before the killings. Neither had she expressed any recent suicidal thoughts and the expert evidence was that she would not have harmed her children or her father;
b) Save for the appellant nobody had seen her use a gun and she had no interest in them. Sheila Caffell also had very poor co-ordination and would not have been capable of loading and operating the rifle nor would she have had the required knowledge to do so;
c) She would not have been able physically to have overcome her father (who was fit, strong and 6' 4" tall) during the struggle which undoubtedly took place before his death in the kitchen;
d) Her hands and feet were clean. They were not blood stained and neither was there any sugar upon them;
e) Hand swabs from her body did not reveal the levels of lead to be expected in somebody who must have re-loaded the magazine of the gun on at least two occasions; and
f) Her clothing was relatively clean and she was not injured in the way that might be expected of somebody involved in a struggle. Her long fingernails were still intact and undamaged.
vi) The sound moderator had on any view been attached to the rifle during the fight with Nevill Bamber in the kitchen. But if Sheila Caffell had committed suicide it must have been removed before she shot herself. The following aspects of the evidence established it was still in place on the gun when the appellant's sister was murdered:
a) The blood grouping analysis proved (on the particular facts of the case) that Sheila Caffell's blood was inside the moderator; and
b) Had the appellant's sister murdered the other members of her family with the moderator attached to the gun and then discovered she could not reach the trigger to kill herself, the moderator would have been found next to her body. There would have been no reason for her to have removed it and returned it to the gun cupboard before going back upstairs to commit suicide in her parents' room.
vii) The appellant's account of the telephone call from his father could be proved to be false for the following reasons:
a) His father was too badly injured to have spoken to anybody;
b) The telephone in the kitchen was not obviously blood stained;
c) As a matter of common sense, Nevill Bamber would have called the police before the appellant;
d) Had the appellant really received such a call, he would have immediately made a 999 call, alerted the farm workers who lived close to the farmhouse and then driven at speed to his parents home; and
e) Instead he had spoken to Julie Mugford before calling the police. When he subsequently contacted the Police, it was not by way of the emergency system.
viii) He stood to inherit considerable sums of money.I don't think there's anything 'beyond reasonable doubt' in JM's testimony.
I think it is generally accepted in legal circles that the blood/silencer sealed JB's fate which I can understand as taken at face value it is very compelling evidence against JB. Either the blood in the silencer, which matched SC's blood groups, was deposited there as a result of drawback aka as blowback as claimed by the prosecution or it was fabricated. IMO JB's defence made a monumental error by arguing SC used the silencer and returned it to the gun cupboard before taking her own life and that the blood represented an intimate mix of NB's and June's. The big mistake imo was not going on an all out attack on the integrity of the blood and silencer and also underestimating juror's ability to see through the fog. I've been shocked by what I consider to be the inadequacies of all those who have defended JB and the various judges.
The only person in the world who knows whether JB is guilty or innocent is JB. And the only 2 people in the world who know whether JM's testimony is truthful are JM and JB. Even if JB didn't say a word to JM about murdering his family it wouldn't make JB innocent. Conversely even if JB said all or some of what JM testified about it wouldn't make JB guilty. He may have made such comments as bad taste jokes or for effect, to shock etc.
Had the jury found JB not guilty I don't believe there would be any reprecussions for JM. Why would there be? It would just have meant they were unable to find JB guilty 'beyond reasonable doubt' based on the collective evidence.
I'm all for trial by jury but with the advent of 21st century forensic science I think it is time to drop lay witness testimony. All the research shows lay witnesses are unreliable even when it is limited to eye witness testimony only.
