Author Topic: Brexit has well and truly begun!  (Read 281210 times)

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Offline G-Unit

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #420 on: January 19, 2019, 09:13:22 AM »
You might be right, but I don't see how your second statement necessarily follows from the first one.

Aside from domestic consumption and exports of raw commodities, presumably some farmers sell raw ingredients (off the top of my head: the grains needed for Scotch whisky, for example) to UK manufacturers who then export the processed products.

I think it would be misleading to assume that those farmers (the raw ingredient suppliers to UK manufacturers) wouldn't be affected by a no-deal. IMO, they would be as tariffs for non-EU members on processed foods are generally considerably higher than for "raw" (fresh / frozen) produce.

Norway (non-EU, but with EFTA benefits) exports fresh salmon to Poland for processing. Lower wages are one factor but so is the export tariff which is lower (2% for fresh / frozen) versus 13% if it were to export the salmon already smoked. As an EU member, Poland can then export the smoked salmon to other EU countries tariff-free.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-norway-salmon/norway-satisfies-eu-smoked-salmon-appetite-through-polish-back-door-idUKKCN0WI1VH

There is also the issue of tariff quotas (higher tariffs for nationwide exports of whatever over a certain quota), plus seasonal tariffs on fresh produce. I'll add a link if I find it again, but for example the tariffs for lemons / oranges from non-EU countries are much higher when EU produce (e.g. from Spain) is ripe for picking (winter for lemons). Off-season (summer in the northern hemisphere) tariffs for non-EU countries are lower.

Whiskey is a good example as it makes up more than 20% of the UK's food and drink exports. 30% of the Scotch exported goes to the EU.

It's a bad exanple because in the event of a no deal Brexit Scotch Whiskey would not be subkect to EU tariffs under WTO rules.

It was once made with barley grown in Scotland, but due to the world wide demand for it the barley now comes from Englabd (Lincolnshire),Denmark or Germany.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-25863920
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-43009106
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Offline G-Unit

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #421 on: January 19, 2019, 09:21:44 AM »
But you are a firm advocate of deferring to expert opinion, at least in certain fields, are you not?

I have, on occasion, objected to criticism of experts by people with no knowledge whatsoever of the subject. That doesm't mean that all experts are always wrong or always right. On the subject of the effects of a no deal Brexit the expert opinions are full of 'perhaps' 'possibles' and 'maybes'. They're not certain that their views are correct, so why should the public accept their views as correct?
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Offline Carana

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #422 on: January 19, 2019, 09:59:40 AM »
I have, on occasion, objected to criticism of experts by people with no knowledge whatsoever of the subject. That doesm't mean that all experts are always wrong or always right. On the subject of the effects of a no deal Brexit the expert opinions are full of 'perhaps' 'possibles' and 'maybes'. They're not certain that their views are correct, so why should the public accept their views as correct?

I don't have a problem with experts admitting that their views might not be accurate. I actually prefer that to those who claim to be certain.

A bit of the beast you know versus the one you don't, though.  If you jump off a cliff there is always the possibility that your clothes might snag on a tree and halt your fall into the abyss. But what are the advantages of jumping in the first place?

Offline G-Unit

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #423 on: January 19, 2019, 10:53:23 AM »
I don't have a problem with experts admitting that their views might not be accurate. I actually prefer that to those who claim to be certain.

A bit of the beast you know versus the one you don't, though.  If you jump off a cliff there is always the possibility that your clothes might snag on a tree and halt your fall into the abyss. But what are the advantages of jumping in the first place?

It seems a majority wanted to get away from the beast they knew regardless of the consequences. I can see both benefits and drawbacks with EU membership. Some may have voted leave for frivolous reasons, but the same could be said of remain voters.
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Offline Mr Gray

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #424 on: January 19, 2019, 11:46:16 AM »
It seems a majority wanted to get away from the beast they knew regardless of the consequences. I can see both benefits and drawbacks with EU membership. Some may have voted leave for frivolous reasons, but the same could be said of remain voters.

I would say the vast majority of those who voted hadn't got a clue as to the benefits and drawbacks of membership

Offline Carana

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #425 on: January 19, 2019, 01:12:48 PM »
I would say the vast majority of those who voted hadn't got a clue as to the benefits and drawbacks of membership

Amongst the people I know who voted, Leavers certainly didn't. Despite the occasional gripe about bureaucracy and MEP salaries / fringe benefits, I can't think of anyone who didn't realise the main benefits. A few other people I know  didn't bother to vote, mainly because they didn't think it had the faintest chance of passing.

Offline Angelo222

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #426 on: January 19, 2019, 04:16:35 PM »
Amongst the people I know who voted, Leavers certainly didn't. Despite the occasional gripe about bureaucracy and MEP salaries / fringe benefits, I can't think of anyone who didn't realise the main benefits. A few other people I know  didn't bother to vote, mainly because they didn't think it had the faintest chance of passing.

People see no benefit whatsoever in being part of a German Superstate, I certainly don't and never will do.  The UK is much better off trading with the world on WTO rules, the EU policy of protectionism resulting in ridiculous tariffs on non EU countries is appalling.  Every wealthy European country has been damaged by the EU as it attempts to make one size fits all.

As for BREXIT, most people want to get the hell out of the EU and by 29 March at latest. The thought of extending this fiasco by up to another year is just pathetic as is Labours call for a second referendum which won't solve anything.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2019, 04:22:28 PM by Angelo222 »
De troothe has the annoying habit of coming to the surface just when you least expect it!!

Je ne regrette rien!!

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #427 on: January 19, 2019, 05:15:06 PM »
People see no benefit whatsoever in being part of a German Superstate, I certainly don't and never will do.  The UK is much better off trading with the world on WTO rules, the EU policy of protectionism resulting in ridiculous tariffs on non EU countries is appalling.  Every wealthy European country has been damaged by the EU as it attempts to make one size fits all.

As for BREXIT, most people want to get the hell out of the EU and by 29 March at latest. The thought of extending this fiasco by up to another year is just pathetic as is Labours call for a second referendum which won't solve anything.

It's like a divorce.... It's going to be difficult at first but much better in the long run...

Offline Venturi Swirl

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #428 on: January 19, 2019, 05:45:39 PM »
I have, on occasion, objected to criticism of experts by people with no knowledge whatsoever of the subject. That doesm't mean that all experts are always wrong or always right. On the subject of the effects of a no deal Brexit the expert opinions are full of 'perhaps' 'possibles' and 'maybes'. They're not certain that their views are correct, so why should the public accept their views as correct?
Because expert opinion is worth more than non expert opinion, or don’t you agree?
"Surely the fact that their accounts were different reinforces their veracity rather than diminishes it? If they had colluded in protecting ........ surely all of their accounts would be the same?" - Faithlilly

Offline Venturi Swirl

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #429 on: January 19, 2019, 05:49:07 PM »
People see no benefit whatsoever in being part of a German Superstate, I certainly don't and never will do.  The UK is much better off trading with the world on WTO rules, the EU policy of protectionism resulting in ridiculous tariffs on non EU countries is appalling.  Every wealthy European country has been damaged by the EU as it attempts to make one size fits all.

As for BREXIT, most people want to get the hell out of the EU and by 29 March at latest. The thought of extending this fiasco by up to another year is just pathetic as is Labours call for a second referendum which won't solve anything.
So the EU is just a mask for the German Superstate but all wealthy countries in Europe have been damaged by the EU... *%87. Can you please privide a cite for “most people want to get the hell out of the EU by March 29th at latest” please.
"Surely the fact that their accounts were different reinforces their veracity rather than diminishes it? If they had colluded in protecting ........ surely all of their accounts would be the same?" - Faithlilly

Offline Venturi Swirl

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #430 on: January 19, 2019, 05:50:54 PM »
It's like a divorce.... It's going to be difficult at first but much better in the long run...
I can see the parallels but most divorces are painful and almost always leave both parties poorer than they would be if they stayed married, with no guarantees of future happiness.
"Surely the fact that their accounts were different reinforces their veracity rather than diminishes it? If they had colluded in protecting ........ surely all of their accounts would be the same?" - Faithlilly

Offline G-Unit

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #431 on: January 19, 2019, 07:04:19 PM »
Because expert opinion is worth more than non expert opinion, or don’t you agree?

Therefore 'expert' Mark Williams-Thomas's opinion that Madeleine McCann woke and wandered is worth more than the opinion of her parents that she was abducted from her bed.
 
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Offline Mr Gray

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #432 on: January 19, 2019, 07:05:22 PM »
I can see the parallels but most divorces are painful and almost always leave both parties poorer than they would be if they stayed married, with no guarantees of future happiness.

 Nope ..divorces can be painful  but dont always leave both parties poorer in the long term...divorce is a good analogy...it takes courage to admit to change..The uk didnt commit to the euro...so was never really committed to europe....i think and hope we will be better outside europe

Offline Venturi Swirl

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #433 on: January 19, 2019, 07:08:53 PM »
Nope ..divorces can be painful  but dont always leave both parties poorer in the long term...divorce is a good analogy...it takes courage to admit to change..The uk didnt commit to the euro...so was never really committed to europe....i think and hope we will be better outside europe
I must admit since deciding to separate recently from my partner I do see Brexit in a slightly different light but I will definitely be financially worse off, unless I marry a millionaire next. 
"Surely the fact that their accounts were different reinforces their veracity rather than diminishes it? If they had colluded in protecting ........ surely all of their accounts would be the same?" - Faithlilly

Offline G-Unit

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #434 on: January 19, 2019, 08:43:55 PM »
I must admit since deciding to separate recently from my partner I do see Brexit in a slightly different light but I will definitely be financially worse off, unless I marry a millionaire next.

Can't you survive on the proceeds of your business?
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