Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?

[Alfie]

How would you know the babysitter hadn't arrived while you weren't watching?

what babysitter?

[faithlilly]

what babysitter?

The one you said the abductor hadn't seen.

[Alfie]

The one you said the abductor hadn't seen.

G-unit brought up the subject of a babysitter first, not me.

[faithlilly]

G-unit brought up the subject of a babysitter first, not me.

I didn't say she hadn't. What I said that if you had only sporadically watched the apartment, as you speculated the abductor may have, then you could have no idea whether the McCanns had a babysitter or not.

[Alfie]

I didn't say she hadn't. What I said that if you had only sporadically watched the apartment, as you speculated the abductor may have, then you could have no idea whether the McCanns had a babysitter or not.

If it was observed on the first night and the second night that the children were left alone without a babysitter, then it would be a fair assumption that the children would be left alone without a babysitter every night.  There would be no need to watch the comings and goings at the apartment every single night. 
That said, we know of cases where abductors have entered premises to steal  or interfere with children in which adults have been known to be present (and even awake, such as the child stolen from the bath) and that hasn't acted as a deterrent.

[Alfie]

Can I ask the abduction doubters here - do you think that ALL burglaries of holiday apartments when the residents are out are implausible and illogical, or only this one because it involved the taking of a child rather than money and jewellery, etc? 

[Alice Purjorick]

Can I ask the abduction doubters here - do you think that ALL burglaries of holiday apartments when the residents are out are implausible and illogical, or only this one because it involved the taking of a child rather than money and jewellery, etc?

Trying to divert are we?
I prefer to stick with apartment 5A on May 3rd 2007 together with all the known* conditions that obtained at that time.

* ie confirmed to be true not interpollated, guessed or sujbject to any "well it's common sense innit" type blx.

[faithlilly]

If it was observed on the first night and the second night that the children were left alone without a babysitter, then it would be a fair assumption that the children would be left alone without a babysitter every night.  There would be no need to watch the comings and goings at the apartment every single night. 
That said, we know of cases where abductors have entered premises to steal  or interfere with children in which adults have been known to be present (and even awake, such as the child stolen from the bath) and that hasn't acted as a deterrent.

Even if an abductor watched the premises 25/7 they would still be unable to see who was entering and leaving both entrances. A babysitter could easily have entered the property without him even noticing, perhaps at a different time to the McCanns and their children.

He would also probably be under the assumption that the parents wouldn't leave their children completely alone at night and while I agree that children have been stolen while their parents are in the house that seems to happen in the main after everyone has retired for the night.

[Brietta]

Even if an abductor watched the premises 25/7 they would still be unable to see who was entering and leaving both entrances. A babysitter could easily have entered the property without him even noticing, perhaps at a different time to the McCanns and their children.

He would also probably be under the assumption that the parents wouldn't leave their children completely alone at night and while I agree that children have been stolen while their parents are in the house that seems to happen in the main after everyone has retired for the night.

The individual who invaded the homes where children were assaulted didn't seem to be too bothered who might be at home.  Nor were the burglars who were operating in the area.  Some of whom burgled in Block 5 as well as adjoining ones.

[faithlilly]

The individual who invaded the homes where children were assaulted didn't seem to be too bothered who might be at home.  Nor were the burglars who were operating in the area.  Some of whom burgled in Block 5 as well as adjoining ones.

The individual who entered the homes of the children he assaulted did so at night when he would counted on everyone being in bed. The burglars entered in the daytime when they would have counted on families on holiday being out and about.

[Brietta]

The individual who entered the homes of the children he assaulted did so at night when he would counted on everyone being in bed. The burglars entered in the daytime when they would have counted on families on holiday being out and about.

At least one burglar appears to have got it wrong when he invaded Mrs Fenn's apartment if not via the window most certainly using it as an exit.

Don't you think it a rather risky endeavour to target children in their beds while their parents may or may not be asleep in an adjoining room?
I would have thought far less risk in entering premises and leaving with a child within the space of seconds and no-one any the wiser until an abduction was accomplished and abductor and abductee heading towards or even cruising along the nearest motorway.

[Alfie]

Even if an abductor watched the premises 25/7 they would still be unable to see who was entering and leaving both entrances. A babysitter could easily have entered the property without him even noticing, perhaps at a different time to the McCanns and their children.

He would also probably be under the assumption that the parents wouldn't leave their children completely alone at night and while I agree that children have been stolen while their parents are in the house that seems to happen in the main after everyone has retired for the night.

Two things 1) before entering the apartment via the (I presume) transparent sliding patio door the abductor would have a chance to assess if there was anyone in the living quarters. 2) if the abductor observed the parents coming and going from the apartment at regular intervals on the night of the abduction it would be safe to assume they were doing so to check on their kids because they had been left alone.

[Alfie]

Can I ask the abduction doubters here - do you think that ALL burglaries of holiday apartments when the residents are out are implausible and illogical, or only this one because it involved the taking of a child rather than money and jewellery, etc?

OK I'll ask again.  If a holiday apartment is robbed while the occupants are out having dinner elsewhere on the complex how is that possible?  How does the burglar know for certain there is no one left in the apartment, or that the residents aren't about to return at any time?  Do these last two factors make burglary of holiday apartments neither plausible nor logical, and if so how do you account for the fact that they happen on a regular basis at many holiday resorts?

[G-Unit]

OK I'll ask again.  If a holiday apartment is robbed while the occupants are out having dinner elsewhere on the complex how is that possible?  How does the burglar know for certain there is no one left in the apartment, or that the residents aren't about to return at any time?  Do these last two factors make burglary of holiday apartments neither plausible nor logical, and if so how do you account for the fact that they happen on a regular basis at many holiday resorts?

Stealing a few quid is one thing. Stealing a child is another. The motivations are quite different, as are the punishments if caught. If Madeleine was abducted by someone acting on the spur of the moment without any planning her chances of surviving would be extremely small as there would be no forward planning for afterwards either. That's why those who hope she is alive need to develop a logical plausible theory of how the abduction was planned and executed.

[Mr Gray]

Stealing a few quid is one thing. Stealing a child is another. The motivations are quite different, as are the punishments if caught. If Madeleine was abducted by someone acting on the spur of the moment without any planning her chances of surviving would be extremely small as there would be no forward planning for afterwards either. That's why those who hope she is alive need to develop a logical plausible theory of how the abduction was planned and executed.

I hope Maddie is alive and well
I don't have to do any mental gymnastics to support my hope