Author Topic: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?  (Read 29440 times)

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AnneGuedes

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #30 on: March 05, 2014, 04:48:09 PM »
Ok, is it statistically significant though? Is there a larger percentage of child disappearances in the Algarve than in other countries, taking into account population size, education levels and economic prosperity?

Without that information, we cant really have a discussion.
I do agree totally with this.
Before suggesting (and that's how collective beliefs start) that there is a "history of children disappearing in the Algarve", consider the Algarve on a reasonable length of time and compare the results with similar holiday places also on a reasonable length of time.
Don't forget that we tend to represent random in a fallacious way. The truth is often contra intuitive.

Estuarine

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #31 on: March 05, 2014, 04:53:16 PM »
I do agree totally with this.
Before suggesting (and that's how collective beliefs start) that there is a "history of children disappearing in the Algarve", consider the Algarve on a reasonable length of time and compare the results with similar holiday places also on a reasonable length of time.
Don't forget that we tend to represent random in a fallacious way. The truth is often contra intuitive.

 8((()*/

AnneGuedes

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #32 on: March 05, 2014, 04:53:40 PM »
I tend to agree that we cannot have an informed debate without proper (official) data. Data gleaned from that tinternet can be misleading depending on the bias of the source. I am also wary of quoting mileages from PdL; of what relevance is it?. In the UK for example Coventry is about 50 miles from Stafford, less or more they are linked by the M6. Why would a crime committed in Stafford this year be linked to similar crime in Coventry 2 years earlier?. It would probably have a tape run over it to see if there were common details but no conclusion would be jumped to on the basis of its only 50 miles away. By all means lets have a look over say a ten year period for all children abducted in Portugal and plot the locations and all relevant details then try to draw a conclusion. But so far we seem to be saying children are abducted in Portugal some of whom were on the Algarve. Yes and?
It a cognitive bias to hypothesize a correlation.

Offline Carana

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #33 on: March 05, 2014, 04:58:07 PM »
Hmmm. I guess I'm in the middle on this issue.

The tabloid hacks had virtually nothing to actually report on, aside from trying to listen to gossip, strike up conversations and get contact details for follow-up stories.

Some tabloid press reports may well have been invented or exaggerated, some may be somewhere in the middle and more serious ones may have been kept quiet.

On the latter:
- I find it hard to imagine that if a child had been through a traumatic experience that the parents would blab to the nearest tabby hack.

- If the PJ hadn't apprehended a culprit, the unofficial PJ media outlets would have been unlikely to report on it.


Offline Carana

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #34 on: March 05, 2014, 05:07:36 PM »
It a cognitive bias to hypothesize a correlation.

As in juxtaposing a photo of the McCanns smiling at well-wishers outside the church following a service expressing hope for their missing child with one of Mariluz's parents on their way to church for the funeral of their murdered daughter?

AnneGuedes

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #35 on: March 05, 2014, 05:11:33 PM »
As in juxtaposing a photo of the McCanns smiling at well-wishers outside the church following a service expressing hope for their missing child with one of Mariluz's parents on their way to church for the funeral of their murdered daughter?
This is manipulation of public opinion.

Offline Carana

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #36 on: March 05, 2014, 05:29:56 PM »
This is manipulation of public opinion.

I agree with you on that.

Offline Carana

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #37 on: March 05, 2014, 05:37:19 PM »
This is manipulation of public opinion.

I agree, but why?

AnneGuedes

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #38 on: March 05, 2014, 05:54:53 PM »
I agree, but why?
No special intention.

Offline Benice

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #39 on: March 05, 2014, 05:57:57 PM »
Two attempts to snatch a British child in and near Praia da Luz just weeks before Madeleine disappeared and you ask is that all I have?   Unbelievable Anne!

And then there are the 8  British families who came forward to the UK police to report the sexual abuse of their children in their own beds/bedrooms - some whilst their parents actually slept in another room.    All within  an hours drive of PdL during the 3 years prior to Madeleine's disappearance - the last one occurring only a mere 6 months before.







The notion that innocence prevails over guilt – when there is no evidence to the contrary – is what separates civilization from barbarism.    Unfortunately, there are remains of barbarism among us.    Until very recently, it headed the PJ in Portimão. I hope he was the last one.
                                               Henrique Monteiro, chief editor, Expresso, Portugal

AnneGuedes

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #40 on: March 05, 2014, 06:04:58 PM »
And then there are the 8  British families who came forward to the UK police to report the sexual abuse of their children in their own beds/bedrooms - some whilst their parents actually slept in another room.    All within  an hours drive of PdL during the 3 years prior to Madeleine's disappearance - the last one occurring only a mere 6 months before.
A myth. Unless you produce neutral sources (not Mrs McCann)

Offline Carana

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #41 on: March 05, 2014, 06:06:57 PM »
No special intention.

Of course not, Anne. Plucked out of mid-air, no doubt. ;)

Offline Wonderfulspam

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #42 on: March 05, 2014, 06:08:59 PM »
Former British policemen Dave Edgar and Arthur Cowley, who are working for Mr and Mrs McCann, want to eliminate Hewlett from their inquiries.
 
A source close to the investigation said there were other, more significant, lines of inquiry than Hewlett.

'There are 38 known sex offenders in the Algarve,' the source said. 'The area is a magnet for paedophiles. There have been seven sexual assaults involving the children of tourists in the Algarve in the last four years.
 
They all have the same modus operandi as Madeleine's disappearance - that is, a break-in at a holiday apartment and children molested.

'Five happened before Madeleine's abduction, and two afterwards. One took place a month before she vanished.'


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1187435/Madeleine-McCann-hunters-claim-Algarve-awash-paedophiles.html

AnneGuedes

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #43 on: March 05, 2014, 06:11:41 PM »
Of course not, Anne. Plucked out of mid-air, no doubt. ;)
What's your analysis ?

AnneGuedes

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Re: Child abduction in Portugal and beyond - is it really so prevalent?
« Reply #44 on: March 05, 2014, 06:13:12 PM »
Former British policemen Dave Edgar and Arthur Cowley, who are working for Mr and Mrs McCann, want to eliminate Hewlett from their inquiries.
 
A source close to the investigation said there were other, more significant, lines of inquiry than Hewlett.

@)(++(*