The DNA results used to implicate the McCanns revisited.

[Lace]

Luz -

I really cannot take you seriously when you still quote such things as 15 out of 19 markers.

Have you actually read the files properly or do you think it is telling lies?

Never mind what was said in the newspapers,  we all know that Amaral jumped straight in before getting the results of the DNA tests.

He gambled and lost that is the fact of the matter.

[sadie]

Luz -

I really cannot take you seriously when you still quote such things as 15 out of 19 markers.

Have you actually read the files properly or do you think it is telling lies?

Never mind what was said in the newspapers,  we all know that Amaral jumped straight in before getting the results of the DNA tests.

He gambled and lost that is the fact of the matter.

Spot on Lace, with all three points

[Angelo222]

At the Arguido interview the PJ were armed with preliminary results having being advised to them by the FSS in England.   Whether those preliminary results were in error or whether the PJ mistook their significance is unknown.

At the end if the day the PJ genuinely believed that there was a high probability of a DNA match and that the McCanns had a case to answer.

If they are to be criticised for anything it is for 'jumping the gun'!

[Jean-Pierre]

Angelo - do you have some reference to this "preliminary report" from the FSS?  Is it in the files?

[AnneGuedes]

At the Arguido interview the PJ were armed with preliminary results having being advised to them by the FSS in England.   Whether those preliminary results were in error or whether the PJ mistook their significance is unknown.

At the end if the day the PJ genuinely believed that there was a high probability of a DNA match and that the McCanns had a case to answer.

It should be remembered that the PJ works under the strict control of the PM and the Instruction Judge (this isn't the case in the UK). They genuinely believed they had some kind of important evidence. But they also knew a high probability isn't a certainty.
Eddie's findings in the 5A was a heavy blow, but it was compensated by Keela's finding in the car, a good point for the McCanns because, imo, they knew Madeleine had never been in that car, alive or dead.

[DCI]

Angelo - do you have some reference to this "preliminary report" from the FSS?  Is it in the files?

Seems the PJ had the true results from 2008.07.18

300 to 326 Translation of FSS statement John Robert Lowe 2008.07.18
01-02-OUTROS APENSOS I, volume II, Pages 300-325

FSS-GF-679 Emissao 2, Pagina 8

The attempt to obtain a DNA profile from any cellular material collected from the plastic area on the baggage compartment (286C/2007-CRL /10(2)) was unfruitful [fruitless, in vain, useless, unproductive, unsuccessful], because no DNA profile was obtained.

A mixed, low-level DNA result, that appeared to be from at least two persons, was obtained from a second area of the baggage compartment plastic (286C/2007-CRL /10(2)). This sample was submitted for tests to obtain DNA profiles through LCN.

A DNA result by complex LCN that appeared to be from at least three persons, was obtained from cellular material collected on the section of the baggage compartment 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. In my opinion, that result is too complex for a meaningful interpretation.
An incomplete, low-level DNA profile that matched corresponding components in the profile of Gerald McCann was obtained from cellular material present on the card key - (286C/2007-CRL (12)). I guess this is the fob of the car-keys

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm

[Carana]

At the Arguido interview the PJ were armed with preliminary results having being advised to them by the FSS in England.   Whether those preliminary results were in error or whether the PJ mistook their significance is unknown.

At the end if the day the PJ genuinely believed that there was a high probability of a DNA match and that the McCanns had a case to answer.

Unless anyone has found anything different, the "preliminary results" would have been Lowe's e-mail addressed to Stu Prior with the 15/37 component result and an explanation.

A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion.

Why - ...

Well lets look at the question that is being asked

"Is there DNA from Madeline on the swab "

It would be very simple to say "yes" simply because of the number of components within the result that are also in her reference sample.

What we need to consider, as scientists, is whether the match is genuine and legitimate; because Madeline has deposited DNA as a result of being in the car or whether Madeline merely appears to match the result by chance. The individual components in Madeline's profile are not unique to her, it is the specific combination of 19 components that makes her profile unique above all others. Elements of Madeline's profile are also present within the the profiles of many of the scientists here in Birmingham, myself included. it's important to stress that 50% of Madeline's profile will be shared with each parent. It is not possible in a mixture of more than two people, to determine or evaluate which specific DNA components pair with each other. Namely, we cannot separate the components out into 3 individual DNA profiles.

Therefore, we cannot answer the question: is the match genuine or is it a chance match.




João Carlos wrote up a "summary" in Portuguese for Amaral... in which João Carlos makes no mention of the 3-5 contributors, nor that the 15 compatible components were within a batch of 37.

TRANSLATED BY ALBYM
10-Processo 10 - 2615 to 2616
10VOLUME_Xa_Page_2615
10VOLUME_Xa_Page_2616

Letter dated 11 September regarding FSS report received by PJ
on on 4 September from Leicester Police, citing 15/19 matches of Madeleine DNA
profile

This serves to add [to the case file] a laboratory examination report prepared
in England, written in English and translated into Portuguese, delivered to this
police force on 4 September 2007 by English police officer Stuart Prior.

This laboratory report tells about the examinations made of two trace evidence
recoveries, one behind the living room sofa in apartment 5A and the other in the
boot area of the vehicle used by the McCann family, hired [by them] from the end of May this year.

In some of these recoveries (samples) DNA was found whose components are also
found in the profile of Madeleine McCann.

With respect to the trace evidence recovered behind the sofa all the confirmed
DNA components coincide with corresponding components in the DNA profile of
Madeleine McCann.

In the sample collected in the boot area of the vehicle, 15 of the identified
DNA components coincide with the corresponding components in the DNA profile of
Madeleine McCann, this of [having] 19 components.

Portimao, 11 September 2007
Inspector
Joao Carlos

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm#p10p2615

PT original:
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/P10/10VOLUME_Xa_Page_2615.jpg
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/P10/10VOLUME_Xa_Page_2616.jpg

However, Amaral was clearly aware of the contents of Lowe's email (3-5 contributors and 37 components) as he raises it in his book.

[ferryman]

That's always been my understanding of what Amaral meant by the "preliminary results"

And from that email of Lowe's (the "preliminary results") is the critical part:

What questions will we never be able to answer with LCN DNA profiling -

When was the DNA deposited - 
How was the DNA deposited - 
What body fluid(s) does the DIVA originate from - 
Was a crime committed -

Unmistakably inconclusive, with innocent explanations of how an, apparent, "match" with Madeleine could be, not merely possible, but overwhelmingly likely ...

[Angelo222]

It was always going to be the case that there would be elements of DNA in common between Madeleine and the other members of the family as they are all related.  Could Amaral have failed to appreciate this in his thought processes??

[ferryman]

It was always going to be the case that there would be elements of DNA in common between Madeleine and the other members of the family as they are all related.  Could Amaral have failed to appreciate this in his thought processes??

Yes!!!

(See my edit above).

[AnneGuedes]

Unless anyone has found anything different, the "preliminary results" would have been Lowe'semail addressed to Stu Prior with the 15/37 component result and an explanation.

A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion.

Why - ...

Well lets look at the question that is being asked

"Is there DNA from Madeline on the swab "

It would be very simple to say "yes" simply because of the number of components within the result that are also in her reference sample.

What we need to consider, as scientists, is whether the match is genuine and legitimate; because Madeline has deposited DNA as a result of being in the car or whether Madeline merely appears to match the result by chance. The individual components in Madeline's profile are not unique to her, it is the specific combination of 19 components that makes her profile unique above all others. Elements of Madeline's profile are also present within the the profiles of many of the scientists here in Birmingham, myself included. it's important to stress that 50% of Madeline's profile will be shared with each parent. It is not possible in a mixture of more than two people, to determine or evaluate which specific DNA components pair with each other. Namely, we cannot separate the components out into 3 individual DNA profiles.

Therefore, we cannot answer the question: is the match genuine or is it a chance match.




João Carlos wrote up a "summary" in Portuguese for Amaral... in which João Carlos makes no mention of the 3-5 contributors, nor that the 15 compatible components were within a batch of 37.

TRANSLATED BY ALBYM
10-Processo 10 - 2615 to 2616
10VOLUME_Xa_Page_2615
10VOLUME_Xa_Page_2616

Letter dated 11 September regarding FSS report received by PJ
on on 4 September from Leicester Police, citing 15/19 matches of Madeleine DNA
profile

This serves to add [to the case file] a laboratory examination report prepared
in England, written in English and translated into Portuguese, delivered to this
police force on 4 September 2007 by English police officer Stuart Prior.

This laboratory report tells about the examinations made of two trace evidence
recoveries, one behind the living room sofa in apartment 5A and the other in the
boot area of the vehicle used by the McCann family, hired [by them] from the end of May this year.

In some of these recoveries (samples) DNA was found whose components are also
found in the profile of Madeleine McCann.

With respect to the trace evidence recovered behind the sofa all the confirmed
DNA components coincide with corresponding components in the DNA profile of
Madeleine McCann.

In the sample collected in the boot area of the vehicle, 15 of the identified
DNA components coincide with the corresponding components in the DNA profile of
Madeleine McCann, this of [having] 19 components.

Portimao, 11 September 2007
Inspector
Joao Carlos

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm#p10p2615

PT original:
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/P10/10VOLUME_Xa_Page_2615.jpg
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/P10/10VOLUME_Xa_Page_2616.jpg

However, Amaral was clearly aware of the contents of Lowe's email (3-5 contributors and 37 components) as he raises it in his book.

Here is the complete e-mail from JL to SP
 10VOLUME_Xa_Page_2617
Task Portugal
From: "Prior Stuart" <Stuart.Prior@leicestershire.pnn.police.uk>
To: "Task Portugal" <Task.Portugal@leicestershire.pnn.police.uk>
Sent: 04 September 2007 10:14
Subject: FW: Op Task - in Confidence

From: Lowe, Mr J R [mailto:John.Lowe@fss.pnn.police.uk
Sent: 03 September 2007 15:01
To: stuart.prior@leicestershire.pnn.police.uk
Subject: Op Task - In Confidence


Stuart

Firstly, here are the last three results you are expecting

An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab 3a. The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid.

There is no evidence to support the view that Madeline MCCann contributed DNA to the swab 3B.

A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion.

Why - ...

Well lets look at the question that is being asked

"Is there DNA from Madeline on the swab "

It would be very simple to say "yes" simply because of the number of components within the result that are also in her reference sample.

What we need to consider, as scientists, is whether the match is genuine and legitimate; because Madeline has deposited DNA as a result of being in the car or whether Madeline merely appears to match the result by chance. The individual components in Madeline's profile are not unique to her, it is the specific combination of 19 components that makes her profile unique above all others. Elements of Madeline's profile are also present within the the profiles of many of the scientists here in Birmingham, myself included. it's important to stress that 50% of Madeline's profile will be shared with each parent. It is not possible in a mixture of more than two people, to determine or evaluate which specific DNA components pair with each other. Namely, we cannot separate the components out into 3 individual DNA profiles.

Therefore, we cannot answer the question: is the match genuine or is it a chance match.

The same applies to any result that is quoted as being too complex for meaningful inclusion/interpretation

What questions will we never be able to answer with LCN DNA profiling -

When was the DNA deposited -
How was the DNA deposited -
What body fluid(s) does the DIVA originate from -
Was a crime committed -

These, along with all other results, will be formalised in a final report

Please don't hesitate to contact me if you require any further assistance

kind regards
John

[Angelo222]

The subject of DNA analysis is very complicated and I for one do not for a minute pretend to understand all about it.   That said however there is always confusion about the number of markers which constitute a match under the law.

It is my understanding that 20 markers or 10 pairs are required in the UK before a match can be confirmed although as few as 15 are accepted in many other countries including some US States and Canada.  Does anyone know what the legal requirement is in Portugal??

[AnneGuedes]

15 is the number for paternity.

[AnneGuedes]

 The LCN technique isn't universally accepted and the Forensic Institute has been one of the main campaigners in bringing the limitations of its use.
http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100317/full/464347a.html

[Carana]

It was always going to be the case that there would be elements of DNA in common between Madeleine and the other members of the family as they are all related.  Could Amaral have failed to appreciate this in his thought processes??

What do you think?

From his book:

We confidently wait for the evaluation reports from FSS. A few days after the samples are sent, we are informed that the DNA of the blood found in the boot of the McCanns’ car shows a significant match - 50% - with Gerald’s, which means that it is definitely the blood of one of his children. We telephone the public minister to pass on this initial result and wait for the follow-up to the analyses and definite conclusions But the laboratory takes its time.

At the beginning of September, shortly before the McCann couple are placed under investigation, Superintendent Stuart Prior travels to Portimão to present the first of the two preliminary reports from the laboratory and to discuss the progress of the investigation.

At a meeting in our office, with the Portuguese and the English investigation team, Stuart expresses his disappointment over the test results. This is where the saga of the FSS reports begins. We read the part of the report dealing with the traces of blood lifted from the floor of apartment 5A, from behind the sofa and in the boot of the McCanns’ car and we don’t agree with Stuart’s disappointment We talk about blood traces because the CSI dog is trained to find only that bodily fluid. The reports that support that decision are clear: the CSI dog was used to detect human blood. Low Copy Number, the technique used to determine the DNA of the samples, does not identify the nature of the bodily fluid they are derived from. But we know it’s definitely traces of blood and not other bodily fluids since the CSI dog is trained to detect only human blood.

In the first case, the laboratory considers that the result of the analysis is inconclusive because the samples gathered provide very little information when the DNA comes from more than one person. But all the confirmed DNA components match with the corresponding components in Madeleine’s DNA profile!

As for the second case, after an explanation about the DNA components in Madeleine’s genetic profile, it concludes that 15 out of 19 markers in Madeleine’s profile are present in the sample examined. Only 4 short of 100% reliability. The FSS specialists qualify the results as, “complex,” and state that these 15 markers are not enough to conclude with certainty that it’s definitely Madeleine’s DNA profile, especially as Low Copy Number picked out a total of 37 in the sample. That means that at least three individuals contributed to this result.

But there was more in this first preliminary report. In the same report, the scientist went further and explained that in the profiles of many of the lab experts, elements from the DNA profile of Madeleine are present. This means that a major part of the DNA profile of any given person can be built by three donors. That is understandable. Two questions arose immediately. The first one: what good is a DNA profile in terms of criminal evidence, if it can be the combination of three or more donors? Another question was simple: why did the DNA profile from those three donors contribute to Madeleine’s DNA profile and not to that of any other person, like the scientist who carried out the test? But the surprises from the preliminary reports were not to end there.

On the very day that interrogation of the McCann couple starts, a second preliminary report reaches us. Contrary to the first report, it accords more importance to the DNA profile of the blood lifted from the floor of the apartment. In that sample, the DNA came from more than one donor, but the confirmed DNA components match the corresponding components of Madeleine’s DNA profile.

As for the samples lifted from the boot of the car, there is no further mention of the 15 markers, as if they had never existed.

Suddenly, light was starting to be cast on the issue:either this LCN technique is not reliable or it’s simply much easier to explain the presence of Madeleine’s DNA in the apartment than in the boot of a car hired 24 days after her disappearance.

At our insistence, Stuart contacts the FSS and asks them if they think the Portuguese are idiots. We hear him saying: “With a lot less than that, we would have already arrested someone in England.” I look at my colleagues and see that they are as stupified as I am. In fact, in Portugal, it’s not so easy to arrest someone. We explain to Stuart that the McCanns interrogations would not result in detention. According to Portuguese law, the crimes of concealment of a corpse and simulating an abduction are not liable to remanding in custody.

WHAT THE LABORATORY REPORTS BRING TO LIGHT

The preliminary results from FSS were enlightening in a way, and confirmed the information given by the EVRD (Enhanced Victim Recovery Dog) and the CSI dog.

The CSI dog, Keela, signaled the presence of human blood where Eddie, the EVRD dog, marked the presence of cadaver odour - on the floor tiles behind the sofa in the lounge, on the key and in the boot of the Renault Scenic that was used by the McCanns from May 27th onwards.
The bodily fluids, according to the FSS, contain markers from Madeleine’s DNA profile.


These elements do not constitute concrete proof but simply clues to be added to those we already possess. In itself, the definition of a DNA profile from LCN is not considered as evidence in a criminal investigation. In his report, the English scientist says that he cannot give answers to the following questions: when was the DNA deposited? In what way? What bodily fluid does the DNA come from? Has a crime been committed?

The scientific evidence is not enough and it has to be accompanied by other types of material, documented and testimonial evidence. It is only in this way that the entire puzzle can be reconstructed and certainties can be achieved, for the material truth to be established.

The FSS has still not provided the result of the technical analysis of the hair found in the boot of the car. Once more, Stuart has to contact the laboratory. Nothing has been done. We want to know two things: if the hair is indeed Madeleine’s, and if it comes from a living or a dead person. The FSS can only answer the first question. English colleagues present at the meeting raise the possibility of the hair being sent to other European laboratories which have the resources to clear up the second point for us: hair from a living or a dead person. But the FSS does not seem to want to part with the hair. They claim that using a colour comparison test they can establish if the hair belongs to Madeleine and in a second stage, identify the DNA profile. None of that will happen. We never find out if the hair was Madeleine’s or her parents’ or her brother’s or her sister’s, even though the laboratory has the DNA profiles of each member of the family.*

Let’s remember: it is totally logical to find Madeleine’s DNA in the home, but absolutely not in a car rented more than twenty days after her disappearance.


* Here he failed to appreciate that the hairs in the boot were fragments and that only very few could be sent for DNA testing (which proved fruitless, presumably because there was an insufficient amount of root).

From an interview:

Exclusive Interview with Gonçalo Amaral: Cadaver was frozen or was kept in the cold

24 July 2008

(...)

“The cadaver was frozen”

Correio da Manhã - What do you think happened to the body?

Gonçalo Amaral – Everything indicated that the body, after having been at a certain location, was moved into another location by car, twenty something days later. With the residues that were found inside the car, the little girl had to have been transported inside it.

How can you state that?

Due to the type of fluid, we policemen, experts, say that the cadaver was frozen or preserved in the cold and when placed into the car boot, with the heat at that time [of the year], part of the ice melted. On a curb, for example, something fell from the trunk’s right side, above the wheel. It may be said that this is speculation, but it’s the only way to explain what happened there.

http://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t1466-cadaver-was-frozen-or-kept-in-the-cold-interview-with-goncalo-amaral


From another interview:

"The little girl died in that apartment" - Gonçalo Amaral on TVI, broadcast live on 28 July 2008

A: The reports from the English labs… the English reports arrive shortly before the questionings that were scheduled. And it contained certain conclusions, if they thought they were inconclusive they shouldn't have mentioned it, the question of the 15 alleles in a profile of 19 from the little girl, stating that they match Madeleine McCann, but they also say that it could have been a construction let's say from various donors, from other persons, a contamination could have produced Madeleine McCann's profile by coincidence. But there are no excuses for saying that it is not from Madeleine McCann because they held the profiles of the father, the mother, the siblings, therefore there are no doubts that at least within that family they only matched Madeleine McCann's.