Amaral and the dogs

[stephen25000]

Most mccann supporters on here attack the dog indications largely because the abduction scenario is bereft of evidence.

Likewise, if they weren't apprehensive about the dogs in the first place, they would not give them the kudos they do, day after day.

[Mr Gray]

so would anyone like to give their opinion on what is the probability that Maddie was abducted

[mercury]

this is the original question...

What are the probabilities that the only apartment (from where a missing child went missing) in amongst seven, contained  any one or all of the myriad of "living scents" (bypassing the sausages and bacon for now) to which the dogs alerted?

Pretty unlucky don't you think?

my answer is the same...not enough information to compute...as you asked if someone who is good at maths could work it out you obviously can't your self

Well, that goes without saying Sherlock
But if your  math is top notch do list the info that is missing that would enable you to deduce that it is improbable that out of seven inhabited residences the only residence found to have "living matter" that a cadaver dog "alledgedly" alerts to was the one cnnected to a missing person

[mercury]

Most mccann supporters on here attack the dog indications largely because the abduction scenario is bereft of evidence.

Likewise, if they weren't apprehensive about the dogs in the first place, they would not give them the kudos they do, day after day.

They say attack is the best form of defence. When the story of the dog alerts first broke back in 2007, there was a solicitor on Radio 4 telling a story (and laughing with contempt whilst doing so) about how snffer dogs react to fruit cake. I agree with you, protesting too much is a bit of a give away sometimes. Be better to let sleeping dogs lie, as it were

[Brietta]

What I did find was criticism, not of the dog, but of the archaeologist:

We informed X of
our concerns shortly afterwards, by phone and e-mail. We stand by our
original assessment. We suggest that the curvature of the material
may have had something to do with the misidentification. We
think it appears to be more like part of a large seed casing, or part of
something like a small piece of coconut. Certainly, the density of the
material is most unlike bone, it is too light. Our conclusion is that this
sample is: a) not bone and b) not human. We are very surprised that
the forensic archaeologist could be so confident and differ in X
identification. We suggested at the time that a further opinion would be
required, but this not considered by X . A further
analysis of the bone structure under a suitable microscope would
confirm the situation rapidly.
5.6.22 If this sample is bone and close to modern in age, then it would be
unusual in our experience for it to be so poorly preserved and lacking
in collagen. One would expect normally that for a bone coming from
the last few decades that at least some collagen would survive. In the
absence of collagen, one would conclude that the bone is probably
older than this, possibly by several hundred or even several thousands
of years. In this light, it is not liable to be of forensic interest. Our
assessment is, however, that it is almost certainly not bone and it is for
this reason that we have significant doubts over its forensic
importance. This probably explains the problems we encountered with
the sample and the fact that it is not able to be dated using collagen
extraction techniques.

I do recall those who scoffed at the (perfectly correct) assertion that was not bone asserted confidently that it must be because (they insisted) it contained collagen.

In fact, it was absence of collagen that, in part, led to scepticism that this was bone ....

Thanks for trying, ferryman.

[Mr Gray]

Well, that goes without saying Sherlock
But if your  math is top notch do list the info that is missing that would enable you to deduce that it is improbable that out of seven inhabited residences the only residence found to have "living matter" that a cadaver dog "alledgedly" alerts to was the one cnnected to a missing person

First question...what did the dog's alert to......answer that and we can move forward

[Mr Gray]

They say attack is the best form of defence. When the story of the dog alerts first broke back in 2007, there was a solicitor on Radio 4 telling a story (and laughing with contempt whilst doing so) about how snffer dogs react to fruit cake. I agree with you, protesting too much is a bit of a give away sometimes. Be better to let sleeping dogs lie, as it were

if you understood the alerts...along with other posters on here...then you would realise how unimportant they are. Should I just allow poster to post lies re the alerts ...perpetuating myths...or correct them... I prefer to correct them

[stephen25000]

First question...what did the dog's alert to......answer that and we can move forward

We know.

Either it was a body or it wasn't.


Next.

[mercury]

First question...what did the dog's alert to......answer that and we can move forward

No, deflecting won't do. The original claim was that cadaver dogs alert to all manner of normal everyday materials from living humans such as saliva, BO, semen, blood, toenails, bad breath, shed hair and moving on to bacon and sausages and pizza. Hence my question on why none of these existed anywhere n PDL the dogs searched except for one place.

[ferryman]

Thanks for trying, ferryman.

Is that not what you had in mind?

[pegasus]

amaral was not hypothesising...that's a mistake many make....he claimed to be able to prove maddie died in the apartment

In the film the hypothesis it is quite clearly visually enacted in two scenes.
The scene of inside the apartment while the chat is happening outside.
The scene of a man carrying a child past the Irish family.

A simple take away sum with those two times gives the hypothesis's PMI at moment of irish sighting.
This is significantly less than the minimum PMI required to produce EVRD  alerts, according to the CSST study.

[Mr Gray]

No, deflecting won't do. The original claim was that cadaver dogs alert to all manner of normal everyday materials from living humans such as saliva, BO, semen, blood, toenails, bad breath, shed hair and moving on to bacon and sausages and pizza. Hence my question on why none of these existed anywhere n PDL the dogs searched except for one place.

Then you should ask the question only of the posters who made that claim..


My opinion is that we don't know what the alerts signified and neither does Grime

[mercury]

Thanks for trying, ferryman.

Did you not watch and digest? Listen from 6 minutes on

Perhaps a mod or admin can create a new thread about the coconut business

[mercury]

Then you should ask the question only of the posters who made that claim..


My opinion is that we don't know what the alerts signified and neither does Grime

I did, but had no response, so decided to ask others.Nothing so far has come anyway near close to answering but thanks for tryng

[Mr Gray]

the very fact that the alerts are not accepted as evidence indicates they are unreliable