Author Topic: Brexit has well and truly begun!  (Read 285705 times)

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Offline Venturi Swirl

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #630 on: January 25, 2019, 11:32:49 PM »
Am I right that you voted remain Carana? 

Seriously though, everyone I have spoken to who voted for Brexit won't change their mind regardless of the scare stories in the media.   

in fact it is this project fear that made me think about changing my mind after the vote had happened.

Looking back I remember everyone being brought forward to keep us in the EU, even Barrack Obama.  Scare stories about the pound crashing, inflation etc all was supposed to happen after a Brexit leave win. None of which happened.
are you quite confident that in the event of a no deal Brexit there will only be positives and no negatives for the country in the first few years following?
"Surely the fact that their accounts were different reinforces their veracity rather than diminishes it? If they had colluded in protecting ........ surely all of their accounts would be the same?" - Faithlilly

Offline misty

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #631 on: January 26, 2019, 12:09:27 AM »
I don't see what WTO has got to do with security. May's deal or no-deal, the UK will still be out of Europol, SIS2, Galileo...

I assume it's something to do with the WTO rules which state that a signatory should have secure borders. If some of our national security is abrogated to the EU under the deal, how would that work in ensuring non-discriminatory import checks & financial issues?

Offline Carana

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #632 on: January 26, 2019, 12:22:04 AM »
I assume it's something to do with the WTO rules which state that a signatory should have secure borders. If some of our national security is abrogated to the EU under the deal, how would that work in ensuring non-discriminatory import checks & financial issues?

In what way would UK security be abrogated to the EU under May's deal?

Offline Carana

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #633 on: January 26, 2019, 12:55:44 AM »

Offline misty

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #634 on: January 26, 2019, 12:58:38 AM »
In what way would UK security be abrogated to the EU under May's deal?

I don't know as  haven't seen the full wording of the agreement reached with the EU re. security. Can you point me in the right direction, please, as the ex-officers must know something which has not been widely discussed

Offline Carana

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #635 on: January 26, 2019, 02:59:30 AM »
I don't know as  haven't seen the full wording of the agreement reached with the EU re. security. Can you point me in the right direction, please, as the ex-officers must know something which has not been widely discussed

Security starts on p. 104 re the transition period.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759019/25_November_Agreement_on_the_withdrawal_of_the_United_Kingdom_of_Great_Britain_and_Northern_Ireland_from_the_European_Union_and_the_European_Atomic_Energy_Community.pdf

And the (non-binding) outline of the future relationship is in the other document, p. 15+.

« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 03:04:48 AM by Carana »

Offline Carana

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #636 on: January 26, 2019, 04:17:21 AM »
Here is the Twitter thread in that article. https://twitter.com/hthjones/status/1083369564711342080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-42772810951273023920.ampproject.net%2F1901081935550%2Fframe.html

Guthrie, Palantir... Hmm.

Then, there's this "article" in Briefings-for-Brexit, which reads like a hard Brexit blog. https://briefingsforbrexit.com/prime-minister-misleading-country-on-security/

His arguments are certainly not how I read pp 17 et seq of the political agreement. I can't see any abrogation of sovereignty anywhere in it.

My impression is that they just that they wanted to vote down May's deal. The sceptic in me makes me wonder if there are US interests in the background. 


From the last section of the Wiki page on Dearlove,


"On 8 June 2017, Dearlove intervened on the day of the 2017 UK general election in The Daily Telegraph saying "how profoundly dangerous it would be for the nation if Jeremy Corbyn becomes Prime Minister."[24]

On 29 November 2018 Dearlove co-signed an open letter, published in a British national newspaper, condemning Prime Minister Theresa May's negotiated Withdrawal Agreement for the United Kingdom from the European Union after the 2016 Referendum on the issue, as the matter was passing through the House of Commons to be voted upon. In its text he stated that the Withdrawal Agreement as negotiated undermined MI6's nationally independent global intelligence power.[25]
In a published response, dated the same day, the Prime Minister's Office issued a public "rebuttal" to the letter's content, singling out Dearlove personally from the named list of several signatories to the open letter, stating the Withdrawal Agreement "absolutely does not" compromise the national independence of the United Kingdom's Secret Intelligence Service's capacity.[26]
In early December 2018 Dearlove, in a jointly authored text with Major-General Julian Thompson, published on the website 'Briefings for Brexit' an extensive reply to the Prime Minister's Office's statement entitled 'The Prime Minister is misleading the country on defence and security', citing a 'worryingly poor understanding of the issues' by the Prime Minister's office.[27]

On 8 January 2019, in an extraordinary intervention in the political sphere by figures from the S.I.S. and the military quarter, Dearlove sent a letter, co-signed by Field Marshal Lord Guthrie, to all Chairs of Conservative Party Parliamentary Constituency Associations with sitting Members of Parliament stating that the passage through the House of Commons of Prime Minister Theresa May's European Union Withdrawal Agreement contained decisions which fundamentally undermined the integrity of the Defence of the Realm, and requested that they take measures to discourage their parliamentary representatives from voting for it imminently in the Commons. The letter as an alternative advocated the case upon national security grounds that the United Kingdom should fully withdraw from the European Union without an Intergovernmental relationship between the two persisting after the process.[28][29]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dearlove

Hmmmm.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 04:37:53 AM by Carana »

Offline Carana

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #637 on: January 26, 2019, 05:15:21 AM »
Something seems odd to me about that letter, and the rebuttals he apparently co-signed.

He seems quite measured and diplomatic in this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrCRkyl7CZg
IMO, the style / language of the written pieces doesn't read like the same person. 




Offline G-Unit

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #638 on: January 26, 2019, 07:07:15 AM »
are you quite confident that in the event of a no deal Brexit there will only be positives and no negatives for the country in the first few years following?

There are negatives with remaining in the EU too.
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Offline Venturi Swirl

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #639 on: January 26, 2019, 07:14:58 AM »
There are negatives with remaining in the EU too.
Maybe so but that wasn’t the question asked.
"Surely the fact that their accounts were different reinforces their veracity rather than diminishes it? If they had colluded in protecting ........ surely all of their accounts would be the same?" - Faithlilly

Offline Carana

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #640 on: January 26, 2019, 08:15:46 AM »
The original Sky articls of the Dearlove / Guthrie letter includes more reactions from Parliament, so possibly more complete.
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-threatens-national-security-ex-mi6-chief-sir-richard-dearlove-warns-11603738

Also worth reading Sir Ivan Rogers' analysis (posted above) of the behind the scenes positions of the various factions. Quite an eye-opener in some respects, IMO.


Offline Carana

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #641 on: January 26, 2019, 10:10:44 AM »
Am I right that you voted remain Carana? 

Seriously though, everyone I have spoken to who voted for Brexit won't change their mind regardless of the scare stories in the media.   

in fact it is this project fear that made me think about changing my mind after the vote had happened.

Looking back I remember everyone being brought forward to keep us in the EU, even Barrack Obama.  Scare stories about the pound crashing, inflation etc all was supposed to happen after a Brexit leave win. None of which happened.


Project Fear was largely what the Leave campaign was based on, IMO, although it's often used to describe the Remain one.

Depending on the source, eg tabloids, the Remain camp may well have exaggerated on some points, although I can't recall any offhand, except that worst-case scenario re rampant inflation didn't occur. But the £ certainly crashed. http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=GBP&C2=EUR&YA=1&DD1=26&MM1=01&YYYY1=2014&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=26&MM2=01&YYYY2=2019&btnOK=Go%21

If the Leave campaign's repeated assertions about Turkey about to be welcomed as a member and therefore 70m Turks were going to suddenly descend on the UK wasn't intended to stoke up fear, I'm not sure how else to describe it. It wasn't the only outright lie, either.

The problem with much of what I do recall reading from the Remain campaign, knicknamed Project Fear, is that much of it is Project No-Deal Fact.

Have a read of Sir Ivan Rogers talk (link further up). He's just as scathing about both sides. lol


Offline G-Unit

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #643 on: January 26, 2019, 10:54:37 AM »
Maybe so but that wasn’t the question asked.

No it wasn't, but it's worth remembering that neither option is guaranteed to be easy. The voters have tried being in the EU and disliked it enough to vote to leave. It might be the best thing the UK ever did, it might be a disaster.

What seems clear to me is that those predicting disaster often have a vested interest in remaining in the EU. What might suit them or their business interests may not suit the rest of the population. What they think is best for the country may only be best for them. I don't know the answers and I don't know which commentators are truly putting the UK and it's people before their own interests. 
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Offline Carana

Re: Brexit has well and truly begun!
« Reply #644 on: January 26, 2019, 11:15:10 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLUbL1PB4BU&feature=share

Clever and amusing, but they're still going on about £350m a week, which was debunked years ago.

As it happens, though, Deborah Meaden is no fan of Brexit by any stretch of the imagination.
https://twitter.com/DeborahMeaden