Brexit has well and truly begun!

[Carana]

AS A MEMBER of the European Union, Britain participates in around 40 free-trade agreements with over 70 countries, covering around 15% of Britain’s trade. The government has said that it aims to reach bilateral agreements with these countries, so that the deals roll over even if Britain leaves the EU on March 29th without a deal. “[P]eople should be reassured that the government is taking a responsible approach,” it has soothed.

But an official document leaked to the Sun newspaper shows that just six deals are on track to meet the end-March deadline. They include one with the Faroe Islands; Faroese-British trade amounts to around £250m a year (about 0.02% of Britain’s total foreign trade). An agreement with Switzerland that was announced on Monday counts for more.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/02/13/a-no-deal-brexit-would-affect-more-than-just-british-trade-with-the-eu?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/anodealbrexitwouldaffectmorethanjustbritishtradewiththeeudailychart

[Carana]

Japan seeking big concessions from Britain in trade talks

Lack of clarity about UK-EU trading relationship after Brexit also holding up progress

Japan is seeking tougher concessions from Britain in trade talks than it secured from the EU, while negotiations between London and Tokyo are also being slowed by the looming risk of no-deal Brexit.

Japanese trade negotiators are confident they can extract better terms, the Financial Times reported, in a sign of the mounting difficulties facing UK officials as they attempt to line up post-Brexit trade deals around the world.

Japan and the EU began trading under a new free trade agreement this month, an arrangement that will be unavailable to the UK after Brexit. While officials from the UK and Japan are seeking to agree a bilateral deal, it will not be in place before 29 March when Britain is scheduled to leave the EU. The UK’s trade with Japan will also revert to World Trade Organization tariffs in the case of a no-deal Brexit.

The Department for International Trade (DIT) told business leaders this week that time was running out for Britain to roll-over trade deals with about 60 countries the EU has free trade arrangements with, which the UK benefits from until it leaves the bloc. Barring a handful of small and medium-sized countries, including Chile and the Faroe Islands, the majority of deals are expected to miss the deadline.

One attendee at the meeting said the lack of clarity about the UK’s trading relationship with the EU after Brexit had held up progress, and that the Japan-EU deal included a “most-favoured nation” clause that meant Tokyo could not offer anything better on trade in services to Britain than it had given to the EU.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/08/japan-seeking-big-concessions-from-britain-in-trade-talks-eu-brexit?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1549656696

Any bi- or multilateral trade agreement in the world that has an MFN clause in it will not be able to offer the UK better terms than it has agreed with the partners of that agreement.

Therefore, the best that the UK could get from any of those countries bound by an agreement is the same.* Due to the relatively small size of the UK market compared to that of the EU, plus the fact that the UK will be seen as desperate, who has the upper hand?

* One caveat to that might be if the agreement doesn't cover whatever it may be that the UK wants, but I'm not sure.

[G-Unit]

Well after over 2 years, no one seems to agree - and if a deal can't get past Parliament (and the ERG appear to be in favour of a no-deal), then what? The UK is by default out on its bum.

The only way out of not crashing might well be for a new ref or a revocation.

So 650 MP's are preventing the will of 17+ million people from being carried out.

[G-Unit]

That's not what I've read. Can you remember where you read that?

What I've read is somewhat different:
https://www.thelocal.fr/20190208/no-deal-brexit-what-the-new-french-law-means-for-britons-in-france-so-far

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-france#healthcare-in-france

[Carana]

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-france#healthcare-in-france

Thanks, but that was in the scenario of an agreed WA.


If the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 29 March 2019, your access to healthcare is likely to change.

[Carana]

It's not just health care, either. All kinds of things - pensioners don't know how they'd get their UK pension, employees will have to apply for a work permit, and that's quite apart from applying for the equivalent of settled residency.

A total mess for a large proportion of 5 million people.

[Carana]

I know that this is about fishing, but it could equally belong here as it concerns how local businesses are being affected.

I find it so sad. They were sold a bridge by Farage et al., while he can collect his pension as an MEP, plus any income from all his speaking engagements.

This chap doesn't have that luxury....

Cornwall for Europe
Published on Feb 7, 2019
We met this Looe fisherman in Bodmin. He exports almost all of his spider crab and Lobster to Spain and he's concerned about delays at ports.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wYuRSYzkLQ

[Carana]

Brexit concerns for florists (often tiny local businesses)...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RohswRETehs

[Carana]

What's going to happen to all the little startups that venture investors, e.g., the Dragon's Den invest in if they can't get into overseas markets without extra hassle, tariffs, non-trade barriers and all the rest of it? What will happen to the people that they would gradually be able to employ and all the annexe businesses that would benefit?

Should the UK just let them go out of business?

[Carana]

Julia Hartley-Brewer
‏Verified account @JuliaHB1

Amazing. Brexit is now fewer than 1,000 hours away. #BringItOn
12:29 AM - 16 Feb 2019


talkRADIO
‏Verified account @talkRADIO

Julia: "We voted for Brexit to bring sovereignty back to the British people. It's the remoaners who are the hardliners. It's the remoaners who are the extremists. In a democracy those kinds of people need to be stopped."

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1096310818373804032


1000 hours to go and NO plan, she says "Bring it on".

[Carana]

 Julia Hartley-Brewer Retweeted
Richard Tice
‏Verified account @TiceRichard
51m51 minutes ago

Richard Tice Retweeted Channel 4 News

Another brilliant Govt negotiator: “I must have a deal however much it costs....” totally out of touch with mood of country which is Let’s Go WTO and save £39 billion. When will the Govt wake up and start listening.....


Try booking a hotel when you're well-known for not having paid for previous stays or for wrecking the joint....

[Mr Gray]

No deal is better than a bad deal.... There may well be an initial period of difficulty but if that leads to a better long term result it will be worth it..

We cannot continue to supply benefits... Health-care.. Education to an unlimited number of immigrants just because a few UK citizens have decided to retire abroad..
I can't simply go and live in the country if my choice and expect the host government to support my healthcare...my childtens healthcare abd education

[Carana]

No deal is better than a bad deal.... There may well be an initial period of difficulty but if that leads to a better long term result it will be worth it..

We cannot continue to supply benefits... Health-care.. Education to an unlimited number of immigrants just because a few UK citizens have decided to retire abroad..
I can't simply go and live in the country if my choice and expect the host government to support my healthcare...my childtens healthcare abd education

Have you examined the reciprocal rights that exist (which will soon end)?

Who says that Brexit will only affect pensioners overseas?

What about younger people who've started businesses in the UK and who've expanded to the EU? Or have moved there? What about them?  Or EU citizens who've done the same?

[G-Unit]

It's not just health care, either. All kinds of things - pensioners don't know how they'd get their UK pension, employees will have to apply for a work permit, and that's quite apart from applying for the equivalent of settled residency.

A total mess for a large proportion of 5 million people.

Five million? AFAIK there are an estimated 1.24 million Brits living in the EU. In my opinion people working there are unlikely to be on local wage rates. Wages in Portugal in 2000 were equal to one third of UK wages, for example. Pensioners found cheap property prices and a cheaper cost of living along with better weather.

Sp leaving the UK made sense for some people and that's what they chose to do. What was/is unrealistic was/is expecting things to stay the same. Change happens and adjustments are necessary.

[Mr Gray]

Have you examined the reciprocal rights that exist (which will soon end)?

Who says that Brexit will only affect pensioners overseas?

What about younger people who've started businesses in the UK and who've expanded to the EU? Or have moved there? What about them?  Or EU citizens who've done the same?

I agree  people will be affected but will it be better in the long term to regain our sovereignty.  I watched a programme Re Cameron leading up to the referendum... He went to eorope to limit the rights of EU citizens to UK benefits... He went twice.. And each time he was basically ignored and treated like dirt by Juncker and his cronies... It may be painful but long term I think we will be better out