A Good, Bad or Average Theory What's The Difference?

[kmc]

That, of course, raises the question of why Bulgaria was mentioned if neither of the couple were Bulgarian.

The article states that she/wife was/is Bulgarian.....which is why I imagine Bulgaria was mentioned.

[kmc]

At the moment I can't find the photos.  You'll need to provide a link if you want my stab at where it is.

Thanks SIL....it is a bit of a long shot, as it could be pretty much anywhere... but thought worth taking a look especially if you know the area well.

[Venturi Swirl]

Thought there was some report of guy languishing in German prison, not that he was necessarily a German national,  though I may be confused, as persons of interest seem to come and go as each one proves , in reality, to be of no interest.

That’s reality for all of them is it?  And you know this how?

[jassi]

That’s reality for all of them is it?  And you know this how?

Yup

[Venturi Swirl]

Yup

And you know this how?

[sadie]

To be fair in the absence of an English transcript, it is a very good guess.  Since as far as I can make out Amaral has dedicated himself to pushing that particular theme since 2007 using various theories which although patently nonsensical are avidly accepted by his following.

The 'swingers' ... the tennis bag ... the fridge ... and that is just for starters.

I sometimes wonder if people ' in the know', as Amaral almost certainly will be, have learned that someone, some people, are about to be charged with abduction etc?     

So best to forget his previous totally incorrect theories pushed ... and back off from these theories and accusations against The Mccanns.   


In other words cover his back?   Best to go along with the latest police position?  Maybe he fears that there will be a backlash against him ... or worse?


I have seen it happen on here before, when something important, illustrating the Polices belief in the innocence of The Mccanns, has happened in this case.   Then some posters have stopped accusing The Mccanns, but still get at them in a subtle way.

[sadie]

Or he simply believed what he was told, that the woman threw herself down the stairs.
https://joana-morais.blogspot.com/2009/05/cirpriano-casepj-inspectors-accused-at.html

A fairly senior Police Officer lying to The Courts ?   To the detriment of the accused?  Changing the Course of Justice?   


No way.  What are you thinking about praising Amaral for such a heinious crime ?

[sadie]

I remember at the time of the interview when Amaral first mentioned the German pedophile, that to me it sounded as if the man in question had been arrested but not necessarily charged.  As a result, I thought it may have related to a pedophile called Andreas V - who at that time had recently been arrested but not yet found guilty - images of him are scarce but he does look a bit like the thick set Smithman e-fit.  What did stand out about him is that 1. The trial documented about 1000 cases of abuse in German starting from 2008...so I wonder where he was before that.  2.  Pre-trial the police 'lost' a LOT of the evidence.  3. A bit like Raymond Hewlett he lived like a traveller. 4. He was able to foster a 6 year old female child even though there were years of rumours about him and children.  5. His victims were mostly girls and also very young victims.   Anyhow, we will have to wait and see if it is him.   Although, I did think it was interesting that Amaral dropped in the similarity to Gerry....it is almost as if he is making sure that if it turns out that the guy in question is the abductor, that he should be forgiven for his assumption that the abductor was Gerry.

Covering his back ?

[G-Unit]

A fairly senior Police Officer lying to The Courts ?   To the detriment of the accused?  Changing the Course of Justice?   


No way.  What are you thinking about praising Amaral for such a heinious crime ?

I'm not convinced that Amaral lied. Obviously you would be.

[Venturi Swirl]

I'm not convinced that Amaral lied. Obviously you would be.

So even though a court found him guilt of perjury you don’t think he lied?

[Mr Gray]

I'm not convinced that Amaral lied. Obviously you would be.

Perhaps, he was, just incredibly gullible

We, need to look at what's, possible.  According to the, court Cipriano was, beaten by members, if the, PJ.  Was, amaral really unaware if this... Did his colleagues, feel they had, to lie, to him to cover it up.
Far more likely... Based on other, cases, too... This, was, almost standard practice, in the, pj imo.
Beat, a, suspect to get a, confession.  That's, why I'm convinced, amaral lied

[barrier]

Strangely or maybe not when Amaral purported his theory he was the devil incarnate in some eye's, now he's linking some geezer in a prison to the investigation his word is his bond,go figure.

[G-Unit]

Strangely or maybe not when Amaral purported his theory he was the devil incarnate in some eye's, now he's linking some geezer in a prison to the investigation his word is his bond,go figure.

Amaral told Mark Saunokonoko that OG were interested in a German paedophile. The press later suggested it was Ney. Amaral then said it wasn't Ney it was someone else. At no point has he claimed this is his theory imo.

[Eleanor]

Amaral told Mark Saunokonoko that OG were interested in a German paedophile. The press later suggested it was Ney. Amaral then said it wasn't Ney it was someone else. At no point has he claimed this is his theory imo.

This is correct.

[Brietta]

Strangely or maybe not when Amaral purported his theory he was the devil incarnate in some eye's, now he's linking some geezer in a prison to the investigation his word is his bond,go figure.

I think the difference between a good ~ bad ~ or indifferent theory is to start at the very beginning and base thinking entirely on the truth as it is known at the time and to take a reasonable time to consider and debate all the facts prior to jumping in.

There is no evidence that Amaral carried out any brainstorming exercises with his team or his superiors prior to formulating theories; there is evidence that he had made his mind up about the path his theory was to take him "right from the word go"; I think Robert Murat was never a serious contender as far as Amaral was concerned although he did make a case for investigating him in his book and it would have tied the case up in jig time if Jane Tanner had only played ball.