Cadaver Dog question

[debunker]

As I said, detail is lost in the general.

I suggest you look at the peer reviewed research I have quoted in another thread before you look even more uneducated.

oh give it a rest

You can't  answer the question,  and that's that

Icabodcrane, I am not a mathematician, but given that the dog is 90% reliable, I calculate that there is a 39% probability that the dog will be correct nine times out of nine. This means that there is a  61% probability that the dog will be wrong at least once.

I don't think he is concerned about fact, rationality and the truth.

I do not think that this is fair on Icabodcrane. Generally speaking, I find he is concerned about fact, rationality and truth. Perhaps, like me, he is finding this a difficult thread to understand.

What is difficult to understand.

When scent dogs are tested in favorable circumstances, they have an error rate of about one alert/non alert in ten.

There reliability is less than that in real life.

Determining cadaver odor takes two different alerts and so reliability decreases as they must be multiplied together.


Simple to understand, but if it contradicts a mantra and mindset (dogs don't lie) it must be diverted or ignored.

[icabodcrane]

You do seem to be determined to prove that you are thick as Pig shit.

It is impossible to test which IRL reactions are incorrect but we do know that in perfect conditions scent dogs are wrong one time in ten- mostly false alerts rather than failure to alert. One report which I quoted shows that positive alerts increase when the handlers are informed (falsely) which areas have the cadaver scent.

Just answer the question  ...  please  ... pretty please   ...  with sugar on top

Is it possible,  or likely   (  given the error ratio you have quoted )  that some of the non alerts in the other nine apartments were false negatives ?  ) 

Is it  possible  ( on the strength of the statistics you brought us  )   that there was cadaverine in one or more of the tapas group's apartments but that the dog gave a false negative alert to it  ? 

A yes or no will do   (  infact  a simple yes or no would be a very welcome refreshing change )

All of that is not only possible, but likely.

hmm  ...  that opens the debate up to a whole new dimension doesn't it  ? 

The dog   (  given his statisitical propensity to err )  may have missed the scent of a dead body in the apartment of one of Gerry and Kate's mates  ? 

interesting

[debunker]

You do seem to be determined to prove that you are thick as Pig shit.

It is impossible to test which IRL reactions are incorrect but we do know that in perfect conditions scent dogs are wrong one time in ten- mostly false alerts rather than failure to alert. One report which I quoted shows that positive alerts increase when the handlers are informed (falsely) which areas have the cadaver scent.

Just answer the question  ...  please  ... pretty please   ...  with sugar on top

Is it possible,  or likely   (  given the error ratio you have quoted )  that some of the non alerts in the other nine apartments were false negatives ?  ) 

Is it  possible  ( on the strength of the statistics you brought us  )   that there was cadaverine in one or more of the tapas group's apartments but that the dog gave a false negative alert to it  ? 

A yes or no will do   (  infact  a simple yes or no would be a very welcome refreshing change )

All of that is not only possible, but likely.

hmm  ...  that opens the debate up to a whole new dimension doesn't it  ? 

The dog   (  given his statisitical propensity to err )  may have missed the scent of a dead body in the apartment of one of Gerry and Kate's mates  ? 

interesting

Or in any other area deployed.
And may be in error in identifying and alerting to cadaver/blood in the current list.

Dogs may not lie, but that does not mean they always tell the truth.

[Gildas]

Icabodcrane posted;
"Is it possible,  or likely   (  given the error ratio you have quoted )  that some of the non alerts in the other nine apartments were false negatives ?  )  "

Icabodcrane, the answer to your question is "Yes". The figures I posted show that there is a 61% probabilty that at least one of the non alerts was a false negative.

[AnneGuedes]

What Martin Grime says, speaking only of late Eddie, is what doctors say about pregnancy tests : when positive it is, when negative sometimes it is not.
Of course Eddie could have reacted to decaying blood from a living person, except in the corner where no residue was found. Martin Grime says those volatile molecules can be trapped in a corner. We we clean we know where dust mainly stays.