Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?

[pegasus]

Same source says duplicates were obtained from reception.

Correct.

If a staff member wished to provide keys for a burglar, he would lend the keys to the burglar for an hour which is plenty of time to get copies made. What he would not do is give the keys to the burglar and say
'don't bother making copies just keep them as I am feeling stupid today so I will report them as lost to reception so that I am incriminating myself for the burglaries you do with them' 
Also the 2007 burglaries of 5L and 5G and the one in block 4 were I believe before these keys were lost.

[Brietta]

Yes the press report that a bunch of keys were lost is credible and correct IMO.
But there is no evidence that those lost keys were acquired by any burglar.
They were probably dropped under a truck seat or somewhere like that.
The open window and shutter indicate that the initiated but disturbed attempt at entry was at the window using Heribertos easy technique and therefore that the person who did that had no key.

Heri's demonstration showed how easily entry could be made through the window ... but he thought it possible Madeleine may have approached the window and was lifted through.

I am sorry to disagree with you and Heri ... but I think entry and exit was via the front door.

[Brietta]

Correct.

If a staff member wished to provide keys for a burglar, he would lend the keys to the burglar for an hour which is plenty of time to get copies made. What he would not do is give the keys to the burglar and say
'don't bother making copies just keep them as I am feeling stupid today so I will report them as lost to reception so that I am incriminating myself for the burglaries you do with them' 
Also the 2007 burglaries of 5L and 5G and the one in block 4 were I believe before these keys were lost.

Exactly.

It doesn't make sense that the whole bunch disappeared for illicit purposes.

If the keys were being copied it could be done very quickly, even one at a time.  But it is something that the PJ should have been made aware of at the time.

[misty]

Yes the press report that a bunch of keys were lost is credible and correct IMO.
But there is no evidence that those lost keys were acquired by any burglar.
They were probably dropped under a truck seat or somewhere like that.
The open window and shutter indicate that the initiated but disturbed attempt at entry was at the window using Heribertos easy technique and therefore that the person who did that had no key.

The report said that the worker kept secret the loss of the keys. Surely the PJ would have enquired with local locksmiths about duplicates of keys being cut - & keys like 5a's wouldn't come cheap.
Of course, if the abductor went in the patio door & out the front door, he wouldn't have needed a key anyway.

[pegasus]

The report said that the worker kept secret the loss of the keys. Surely the PJ would have enquired with local locksmiths about duplicates of keys being cut - & keys like 5a's wouldn't come cheap.
Of course, if the abductor went in the patio door & out the front door, he wouldn't have needed a key anyway.

The paper got the story by tracing and speaking to employee BS, and then tracing and doorstepping employee TS.
It was TS who lost the keys, he told BS, and must have told some other employee at reception/management in order to get replacements. None of those 3 mentioned this in the statements we see in the files.
I think the paper would certainly have passed this information to SY and its likely they will have asked PJ to check it out.


Obviously needs checking, however IMO the evidence indicates burglary disturbed at window and no use of any key.

[sadie]

The report said that the worker kept secret the loss of the keys. Surely the PJ would have enquired with local locksmiths about duplicates of keys being cut - & keys like 5a's wouldn't come cheap.
Of course, if the abductor went in the patio door & out the front door, he wouldn't have needed a key anyway.

The keys to 5A look like simple castings to me. 

Any idiot with a modicom of engineering skills, a sand box, the correct sand for moulding and a nearby furnace could make one for peanuts, and in minutes.  They would need a file, or grinding wheel for fettling too.

http://foundry101.com/

As part of my engineering training I worked in a foundry producing steel castings, making the moulds and pouring the red /white hot molten metal.  Sparks flying everywhere and hard sweaty work, but very satisfying.

[Alice Purjorick]

Well just remove the key from the rack in reception rub it on your upper lip to grease it, make an impression of it in a tin of plasticine you just happen to have in your shirt pocket. Mix up some plaster of paris (or wax) to make a core using the plasticine impression. Find some timber and tools with which to make the mould frame in which to put the moulding sand, a bag of which no self respecting burglar would be seen abroad without. Find some metal not ductile or brittle then use the small electric furnace you have in the boot of your car to melt the metal pour it into the mould not forgettin g to warm up the mould first, let it cool strike the mould fettle the key then take the key to door to make sure it works; then carry out the abduction?
Simple really! But as my granny used to say about killing cats!!

[sadie]

Well just remove the key from the rack in reception rub it on your upper lip to grease it, make an impression of it in a tin of plasticine you just happen to have in your shirt pocket. Mix up some plaster of paris (or wax) to make a core using the plasticine impression. Find some timber and tools with which to make the mould frame in which to put the moulding sand, a bag of which no self respecting burglar would be seen abroad without. Find some metal not ductile or brittle then use the small electric furnace you have in the boot of your car to melt the metal pour it into the mould not forgettin g to warm up the mould first, let it cool strike the mould fettle the key then take the key to door to make sure it works; then carry out the abduction?
Simple really! But as my granny used to say about killing cats!!

Oh, do you really think they made the spare key oin the spot?  ReallY ?

I think they made it elsewhere. 

Easy peasy for someone used to making toy soldiers or even more so for someone working in a foundry.  You can even buy simple metal casting kits on the internet ... but they would need a good heat source Alice. 

[pegasus]

Heri's demonstration showed how easily entry could be made through the window ... but he thought it possible Madeleine may have approached the window and was lifted through.

I am sorry to disagree with you and Heri ... but I think entry and exit was via the front door.

Heri's video demonstration of the 3-stage window opening method is brilliant. His seperate hypothesis that the child walks towards the window is incorrect as it reverses the natural instinct to move away from danger. The child would certainly have moved away from the danger into another room.

If children ran towards danger it would make the game of monster (described in the files) an absolutely pointless non-starter wouldn't it?

[pegasus]

@Brietta
Our two theories are different but seem to agree on several very important points one of which is:
A stranger opened the window and shutter but did not climb in or out of it.
In your theory what is the reason why your stranger opens the window and shutter?
 

[pathfinder73]

For that theory to have worked the window would have to be unlocked because it wasn't forced. Experts concluded from the thumb prints it was opened from the inside but what do they know? Dianne tried to raise them from the outside and couldn't lift them. Those shutters were tampered with straight away like they thought they were running the investigation and not the police. If an intruder touched them then why the hell was Kate getting Dianne and others to tamper with them? That doesn't look good.

[pegasus]

... Experts concluded from the thumb prints it was opened from the inside ...

Are you referring to Mr Amaral's film?
Yes an skilled expert in that film does conclude that the window was slid open from the inside.
However that expert is mistaken.
Remember he did not lift the prints himself, he was working from forensic photos of 4th May.
Please feel free to post the stillframe from the film, which shows the forensic "dragons blood" photo of the print which supposedly proves the window was opened from the inside.
 

[Brietta]

Heri's video demonstration of the 3-stage window opening method is brilliant. His seperate hypothesis that the child walks towards the window is incorrect as it reverses the natural instinct to move away from danger. The child would certainly have moved away from the danger into another room.

If children ran towards danger it would make the game of monster (described in the files) an absolutely pointless non-starter wouldn't it?

I know you put a great deal of thought into your posts using the little evidence we have to build a workable hypothesis.

I tremble a little if I digress from Heri’s meticulous research all of which I agree is brilliant. 

I think the abduction was planned. 

I base this opinion on the known witness statements describing men observing apartment 5a. Too many to be discarded.
 
I also think the balcony where the cigarette butts were found might well have been used as an observation post … Heri has posted photographs which show the panoramic view of the crime scene from that position.

I think the timing of phone pings were communications relaying information about the family’s movements.

Consider this, please.

Abductor enters apartment via the sliding patio door (or front door) immediately Dr McCann leaves having made his check.

In seconds s/he is in child bedroom; ensures window is unlocked, may open it, may raise the shutter … but it is likely an accomplice may do that from outside while inside, Madeleine is sedated.

The abductor lifts Madeleine from her bed, crosses the room and passes her to accomplice who makes good the escape either to nearby accommodation but more likely to a vehicle.

Abductor makes quick visual check to ensure s/he has left no forensic trace and exits via a door unencumbered by the burden of the child and makes good a separate escape.

It is all down to planning and precision; perhaps the original plan included lowering the blind and closing and locking the window.
That would have delayed discovery, and Madeleine might not have been missed till the morning giving them a bigger window for escape.

However the suspicion and confusion engendered by the open window leading to the "staged abduction theory" must have left them delerious with joy when the spotlight was focused on Madeleine's parents and not them.

[Miss Taken Identity]

I just wonder how much these portable foundries cost in PDL.

soldering, melting metal?...I thought I was reading a script from Columbo.

Did we not all agree that the doors were left open-unlocked?. Why open shutters- deploy a one man steel works service to make a key( that's all you see driving around PDL) Key making burglars!

If the place was being cased, why break in to a flat where it is being monitored constantly? and the children  had the habit of waking up during the night!

Now a more logical approach.... who checked the chimney?

[pegasus]

@Brietta
Ah so your reason for the window being opened is so that one person can pass a child out of the window to another person.
I think it was opened from outside by a person who intended to climb in through it but was disturbed before he did.

At least we do both agree on this important point - that the scene described by KM - the bedroom to lounge door more open, the window open, the shutter open, the toy on bed, is completely truthful.