Missing children and the statistics.

[Brietta]

Please note the thread title is ... Missing children and the statistics. ... Please stay on topic, if not, expect your post to be deleted.
Thank you

[Robittybob1]

The point is that one way or the other the police ought to be working their way through the decision tree, but the most important thing to remember was that from the USA figures 66% of kids are missing because they have left for some reason of their own, the runaway  and throwaway category, so if that is the case in Portugal it seems correct that the first emphasis needs to be check for that type of scenario first.
Reassess the situation after the first 24 hours as the balance of probabilities has changed in favour of the causes that someone might not own up to. (IMO this is what would be the case)

IMO  I think it appears it was handled correctly by the PJ so far i.e. the first 24 hours.

With the arrival of the FLO officers and other support staff who in some ways will report information back to the PJ.
If most of the wandering off situations are resolved within a few hours the balance of probable cause swings around to the 33% that are abductions.
The question then becomes another decision do the PJ make the Tapas 9 and Jeremy Wilkins all arguidos from that point on, or have a more gentler approach and hope that  information comes out in the witness interviews.  That would mean the apartment was fully forensically examined at this stage (weeks earlier than it was).

IMO maybe there would have been an advantage making them all arguidos, and asking them the real hard questions within 48 hours of Madeleine going missing.  But we can't turn the clock back. 

I can see that would be frustrating for Kate and Gerry who favoured the abduction scenario within 15 minutes of the alarm being raised.  (Reserved opinion: To me that suggests some knowledge about the situation that is not openly explained.)
For if the PJ only start thinking in terms of abduction 48 hours or so after the event the abductor has had 48 hours to make their escape, to Spain or to Africa.

[Carana]

The point is that one way or the other the police ought to be working their way through the decision tree, but the most important thing to remember was that from the USA figures 66% of kids are missing because they have left for some reason of their own, the runaway  and throwaway category, so if that is the case in Portugal it seems correct that the first emphasis needs to be check for that type of scenario first.
Reassess the situation after the first 24 hours as the balance of probabilities has changed in favour of the causes that someone might not own up to. (IMO this is what would be the case)

IMO  I think it appears it was handled correctly by the PJ so far.

With the arrival of the FLO officers and other support staff who in some ways will report information back to the PJ.
If most of the wandering off situations resolved within a few hours the balance of probable cause swings around to the 33% that are abductions.
The question then becomes another decision do the PJ make the Tapas 9 and Jeremy Wilkins all arguidos from that point on, or have a more gentler approach and hope that  information comes out in the witness interviews.  That would mean the apartment was fully forensically examined at this stage (weeks earlier than it was).

IMO maybe there would have been an advantage making them all arguidos, and asking them the real hard questions within 48 hours of Madeleine going missing.  But we can't turn the clock back. 

I can see that would be frustrating for Kate and Gerry who favoured an abduction within 15 minutes of the alarm.  (Reserved opinion: To me that suggests some knowledge about the situation that is not openly explained.)
For if the PJ only start thinking in terms of abduction 48 hours or so after the even the abductor has 48 hours to make their escape, to Spain or to Africa.

In PT the clock starts ticking on the time limit for the investigation once there are arguidos.

[G-Unit]

In PT the clock starts ticking on the time limit for the investigation once there are arguidos.

They have statutes of limitations too, I believe.

[Robittybob1]

In PT the clock starts ticking on the time limit for the investigation once there are arguidos.

If they made all 10 of them arguidos there might have been restrictions on them getting together and doing joint timelines etc, their stories would get wild discrepancies especially if the Tapas 10 had anything to do with it.

If it appeared they didn't move on to "stranger abduction".  Keep working through the decision tree.

[Mr Gray]

The point is that one way or the other the police ought to be working their way through the decision tree, but the most important thing to remember was that from the USA figures 66% of kids are missing because they have left for some reason of their own, the runaway  and throwaway category, so if that is the case in Portugal it seems correct that the first emphasis needs to be check for that type of scenario first.
Reassess the situation after the first 24 hours as the balance of probabilities has changed in favour of the causes that someone might not own up to. (IMO this is what would be the case)

IMO  I think it appears it was handled correctly by the PJ so far i.e. the first 24 hours.

With the arrival of the FLO officers and other support staff who in some ways will report information back to the PJ.
If most of the wandering off situations are resolved within a few hours the balance of probable cause swings around to the 33% that are abductions.
The question then becomes another decision do the PJ make the Tapas 9 and Jeremy Wilkins all arguidos from that point on, or have a more gentler approach and hope that  information comes out in the witness interviews.  That would mean the apartment was fully forensically examined at this stage (weeks earlier than it was).

IMO maybe there would have been an advantage making them all arguidos, and asking them the real hard questions within 48 hours of Madeleine going missing.  But we can't turn the clock back. 

I can see that would be frustrating for Kate and Gerry who favoured the abduction scenario within 15 minutes of the alarm being raised.  (Reserved opinion: To me that suggests some knowledge about the situation that is not openly explained.)
For if the PJ only start thinking in terms of abduction 48 hours or so after the event the abductor has had 48 hours to make their escape, to Spain or to Africa.

the open window

[Robittybob1]

the open window

But at what time was the window opened?