UK Justice Forum 🇬🇧

Disappeared and Abducted Children and Young Adults => Madeleine McCann (3) disappeared from her parent's holiday apartment at Ocean Club, Praia da Luz, Portugal on 3 May 2007. No trace of her has ever been found. => Topic started by: Holly Goodhead on August 17, 2019, 02:31:16 PM

Title: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Holly Goodhead on August 17, 2019, 02:31:16 PM
It is often said thousands of children go missing everyday.  This may be the case, I've no idea.  But I don't think its helpful to just lump all missing children together.

How can it be meaningful to compare children who go missing from economically underdeveloped countries and/or countries that are lawless with a child abducted from economically developed countries where the rule of law is upheld?

Breaking it down further how can it be meaningful to compare children who go missing from two parent families in an economically developed country where the rule of law is upheld with children who go missing from the same country but are in residential care? 

The only reason I'm highlighting two parent families is that children from a one parent family are often abducted by the parent who doesn't have custody.

What I want to try and work out is how likely is that a child from a two parent family in an economically developed country will go missing?

Another factor is obviously the age of the child.  The younger the child the less time he/she will spend without adult supervision. 

I'm sure others can think of factors I haven't.  The above are just some that spring to mind.
Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Holly Goodhead on August 18, 2019, 01:59:52 PM
It is often said thousands of children go missing everyday.  This may be the case, I've no idea.  But I don't think its helpful to just lump all missing children together.

How can it be meaningful to compare children who go missing from economically underdeveloped countries and/or countries that are lawless with a child abducted from economically developed countries where the rule of law is upheld?

Breaking it down further how can it be meaningful to compare children who go missing from two parent families in an economically developed country where the rule of law is upheld with children who go missing from the same country but are in residential care? 

The only reason I'm highlighting two parent families is that children from a one parent family are often abducted by the parent who doesn't have custody.

What I want to try and work out is how likely is that a child from a two parent family in an economically developed country will go missing?

Another factor is obviously the age of the child.  The younger the child the less time he/she will spend without adult supervision. 

I'm sure others can think of factors I haven't.  The above are just some that spring to mind.

The above would seem to show the unusualness of a child MM's age going mising, from a two-parent family in an economically developed country where the rule of law is upheld.
Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Robittybob1 on August 18, 2019, 07:16:03 PM
The above would seem to show the unusualness of a child MM's age going mising, from a two-parent family in an economically developed country where the rule of law is upheld.
What does that prove or suggest?
Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Holly Goodhead on August 20, 2019, 08:51:19 AM
What does that prove or suggest?

It doesn't prove anything.  As I said it just shows how unusual it is for a child MM's age to go missing from a two-parent family in an economically developed country, where the rule of law is upheld.  Set against the fact MM was home alone in accommodation that was by all accounts insecure it is my firm belief that the perp was someone who was aware of these facts which narrows it down considerably.  Claims of bogus charity collectors; creepy men hanging around during the day; burglars who struck lucky in finding an insecure property but instead of taking the usual valuables opted for a child instead; organised gangs of paedophiles and child traffickers do not figure in my thinking. 
Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Holly Goodhead on August 20, 2019, 09:14:16 AM
I'm not really sure what the chapter in KM's book re missing, abducted and exploited children is angling at  *%87

The chapter starts:

The available statistics on missing, abducted and exploited children, nationally and worldwide, are patchy and incomplete.  This is a problem readily acknowledged by those working in the field and it tells its own story.  Without more extensive research and comprehensive figures, it is very difficult to identify and implement the necessary measures to safeguard children.

Firstly the raw data is required and then it would be necessary to produce some algorithms to calculate risk.  As I said in post 1 its impossible to compare the risk of a child disappearing from some underdeveloped country where the rule of law isn't upheld compared with a developed country where the rule of law is upheld. 

I would suggest not leaving young children unsupervised in insecure accommodation might be a first step.
Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Holly Goodhead on August 20, 2019, 09:44:25 AM
KM's chapter 'Adapting to our new life' mentions 6 children who went missing but were subsequently found.  I will go through each 1 to see if any common themes can be found and up-date this post with the info when I have time.  First child is Peng Wele:

NAME                    AGE @ DISAPPEARANCE/     COUNTRY       FAMILY TYPE           DETAILS
                            FOUND
Peng Wele (M)       3YRS/6YRS                          China            2 Parent                 Man scooped up Peng from
                                                                                                                       crowded street outside family's
                                                                                                                       shop.

                                                                                                                       All-out campaign by Chinese
                                                                                                                       microbloggers to circulate
                                                                                                                       photographs of abducted
                                                                                                                       children led to Peng's
                                                                                                                       reunion with his family.

                                                                                                                       Peng was sold to a family that
                                                                                                                       was childless/without a son.

Carlina White (F)    19 Days/23 Years              US                      2 parent             Abducted from hospital by
                                                                                                                       childless woman and brought
                                                                                                                       up as own.  Carlina asked for
                                                                                                                       birth cert to apply for
                                                                                                                       medi ins.  Supplied with fake.
                                                                                                                       Started to suspect woman who
                                                                                                                       brought her up wasn't her birth
                                                                                                                       mother and solved the mystery
                                                                                                                       herself.  Reunited with birth
                                                                                                                       parents.

Shawn Hornbeck (M) 11 yrs/15/16 yrs             US                       2 parent            Shawn went missing when
                                                                                                                       riding his bike near his home.
                                                                                                                       He was abducted by Michael
                                                                                                                       Devlin and kept captive for 4
                                                                                                                       years.  During this time he was
                                                                                                                       abused.  Devlin then abducted
                                                                                                                       another boy but was spotted
                                                                                                                       and the FBI were soon on to
                                                                                                                       Devlin's truck leading to
                                                                                                                       his capture.  Shawn
                                                                                                                       reunited with his family.
Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Holly Goodhead on August 20, 2019, 12:18:24 PM
I'm still up-dating.  3 done, 3 to go.  Maybe KM was selective in choosing the 6 she did but from the 3 I've posted it shows themes that fit with my theory:

- Would be child abductors seize low risk opportunities
- Despite public appeals in the aftermath no one came forward with any info leading to the child being found
- Police were unable to solve the disappearance directly
Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: G-Unit on August 20, 2019, 01:24:18 PM
Even NCMEC admit that stranger abduction is extremely rare. Of the 25,000 cases of missing children they dealt with in 2018, less than 1% were nonfamily abductions. Thats less than 250 in the US, with a population of 327 million, a very small figure.
http://www.missingkids.com/footer/media/keyfacts#missingchildrenstatistics

In my opinion the number of children under 5 abducted by strangers is even smaller.

Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on August 20, 2019, 05:24:56 PM
Even NCMEC admit that stranger abduction is extremely rare. Of the 25,000 cases of missing children they dealt with in 2018, less than 1% were nonfamily abductions. Thats less than 250 in the US, with a population of 327 million, a very small figure.
http://www.missingkids.com/footer/media/keyfacts#missingchildrenstatistics

In my opinion the number of children under 5 abducted by strangers is even smaller.
That’s almost 5 stranger abductions of children a week in the USA alone.
Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on August 20, 2019, 06:44:49 PM
Even NCMEC admit that stranger abduction is extremely rare. Of the 25,000 cases of missing children they dealt with in 2018, less than 1% were nonfamily abductions. Thats less than 250 in the US, with a population of 327 million, a very small figure.
http://www.missingkids.com/footer/media/keyfacts#missingchildrenstatistics

In my opinion the number of children under 5 abducted by strangers is even smaller.

Indeed, we have to also take into account two parent families who send their daughters abroad to get married from age 5 upwards. Reported 'absent' by schools. They are not recorded as missing- they are born in the UK,but maybe not as cute as MBM,so not worth bothering about or perhaps culturally  sensitive.
Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on August 20, 2019, 06:46:51 PM
Indeed, we have to also take into account two parent families who send their daughters abroad to get married from age 5 upwards. Reported 'absent' by schools. They are not recorded as missing- they are born in the UK,but maybe not as cute as MBM,so not worth bothering about or perhaps culturally  sensitive.
Those are not counted as stranger abductions.
Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on August 20, 2019, 06:49:40 PM
Those are not counted as stranger abductions.


They are strangers to the child and the authorities!  I thought  that counted but OK.
Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Vertigo Swirl on August 20, 2019, 06:51:08 PM

They are strangers to the child and the authorities!  I thought  that counted but OK.
If sending kids off to boarding school = abducted by a stranger, then I too was abducted by a stranger.
Title: Re: Missing Children - A Breakdown Of The Figures
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on August 20, 2019, 07:06:52 PM
If sending kids off to boarding school = abducted by a stranger, then I too was abducted by a stranger.

 @)(++(*

Yeah OK  you was abducted and returned safe to your parents. sheeesh.

I am talking about being removed by parents by illegal  means to be involved in criminal activity by strangers.

We don't need to include these figures i guess it just depends on what you want your stats to tell you.


In Glasgow Govan hill area, all sorts of unsavoury things happen to children, much unreported. or known about without evidence.