UK Justice Forum 🇬🇧
Disappeared and Abducted Children and Young Adults => Madeleine McCann (3) disappeared from her parent's holiday apartment at Ocean Club, Praia da Luz, Portugal on 3 May 2007. No trace of her has ever been found. => Topic started by: Martha on April 30, 2013, 03:24:43 PM
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Why do you "sceptics" always say Mr Smith was 80% sure? His own words were "60-80% sure" which, I'm sure you'll agree = unsure.
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Why do you "sceptics" always say Mr Smith was 80% sure? His own words were "60-80% sure" which, I'm sure you'll agree = unsure.
More pertinently, what figure would he quote now?
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Why do you "sceptics" always say Mr Smith was 80% sure? His own words were "60-80% sure" which, I'm sure you'll agree = unsure.
I do agree
Mr Smith is not certain that it was Gerry McCann he saw that night, so his evidence is unreliable ( it is still evidence though )
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Why do you "sceptics" always say Mr Smith was 80% sure? His own words were "60-80% sure" which, I'm sure you'll agree = unsure.
He was only a bit more sure than unsure. I always wondered why he didn't say 70%.
BTW Mr Smith's feeling should have inspired a sketch of a guy without a face (neither the Smiths nor JT noticed the face) but with the gait of Mr McCann. Mrs McCann finds Bundleman looks like Cooperman...
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Why do you "sceptics" always say Mr Smith was 80% sure? His own words were "60-80% sure" which, I'm sure you'll agree = unsure.
He was only a bit more sure than unsure. I always wondered why he didn't say 70%.
BTW Mr Smith's feeling should have inspired a sketch of a guy without a face (neither the Smiths nor JT noticed the face) but with the gait of Mr McCann. Mrs McCann finds Bundleman looks like Cooperman...
BTW Mr Smith's feeling should have inspired a sketch of a guy without a face
Martin Smith declined to take part in a fotofit ...
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Why do you "sceptics" always say Mr Smith was 80% sure? His own words were "60-80% sure" which, I'm sure you'll agree = unsure.
He was only a bit more sure than unsure. I always wondered why he didn't say 70%.
BTW Mr Smith's feeling should have inspired a sketch of a guy without a face (neither the Smiths nor JT noticed the face) but with the gait of Mr McCann. Mrs McCann finds Bundleman looks like Cooperman...
Have you found anything in the files to suggest that the police had actually invited the family to work with police artists to develop a sketch when they'd first reported their sighting?
ETA I've looked and I just can't find any police request.
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Why do you "sceptics" always say Mr Smith was 80% sure? His own words were "60-80% sure" which, I'm sure you'll agree = unsure.
He was only a bit more sure than unsure. I always wondered why he didn't say 70%.
BTW Mr Smith's feeling should have inspired a sketch of a guy without a face (neither the Smiths nor JT noticed the face) but with the gait of Mr McCann. Mrs McCann finds Bundleman looks like Cooperman...
BTW Mr Smith's feeling should have inspired a sketch of a guy without a face
Martin Smith declined to take part in a fotofit ...
He declined when Mr Kennedy asked him so, Ferryman, and I find it coherent with his statement that he wouldn't recognize the carrier. But later, when Mr Smith had this feeling that Mr McCann could be the carrier, he in fact gave an interesting clue about the gait (not the features) of the carrier. Why wasn't that exploited ? It came to my mind when watching a recently sent video where Mrs McCann notices that Cooperman and the Bundleman could be the same guy.
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Why do you "sceptics" always say Mr Smith was 80% sure? His own words were "60-80% sure" which, I'm sure you'll agree = unsure.
He was only a bit more sure than unsure. I always wondered why he didn't say 70%.
BTW Mr Smith's feeling should have inspired a sketch of a guy without a face (neither the Smiths nor JT noticed the face) but with the gait of Mr McCann. Mrs McCann finds Bundleman looks like Cooperman...
Have you found anything in the files to suggest that the police had actually invited the family to work with police artists to develop a sketch when they'd first reported their sighting?
ETA I've looked and I just can't find any police request.
You're right, Carana !
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Why do you "sceptics" always say Mr Smith was 80% sure? His own words were "60-80% sure" which, I'm sure you'll agree = unsure.
He was only a bit more sure than unsure. I always wondered why he didn't say 70%.
BTW Mr Smith's feeling should have inspired a sketch of a guy without a face (neither the Smiths nor JT noticed the face) but with the gait of Mr McCann. Mrs McCann finds Bundleman looks like Cooperman...
You can't be a bit more sure than unsure, like you can't be a bit more dead than alive. You are either one thing or the other. He was clearly unsure.
I agree it was clumsily expressed, Marta, but "clearly" isn't right as well. Let's say he was unsure. After all nobody put this idea in his independent witness' head and he was absolutely sure that the carrier wasn't Robert M whom he had met once or twice before whereas he never met Mr McCann.
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Why do you "sceptics" always say Mr Smith was 80% sure? His own words were "60-80% sure" which, I'm sure you'll agree = unsure.
He was only a bit more sure than unsure. I always wondered why he didn't say 70%.
BTW Mr Smith's feeling should have inspired a sketch of a guy without a face (neither the Smiths nor JT noticed the face) but with the gait of Mr McCann. Mrs McCann finds Bundleman looks like Cooperman...
You can't be a bit more sure than unsure, like you can't be a bit more dead than alive. You are either one thing or the other. He was clearly unsure.
I agree it was clumsily expressed, Marta, but "clearly" isn't right as well. Let's say he was unsure. After all nobody put this idea in his independent witness' head and he was absolutely sure that the carrier wasn't Robert M whom he had met once or twice before whereas he never met Mr McCann.
Exactly - months after the event he saw a man carry a child down the stairs off a plane in exactly the same way that 99.9% of men would carry a child, and decided the 60 - 80% certainty. At the same time he was absolutely sure that it was not Murat - who he happened to know!
Co-incidence?
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I would take issue with the idea that "no one put it in his head". He decided it might be Gerry ONLY after the McCanns were made arguidos and when he watched Gerry on TV carrying his son in a perfectly normal position that most parents would use for a sleeping 2 year old. So, I think it's likely he was influenced by the turn of events in Sept 07 don't you?
I would agree with that. I also think it was not Gerry who brought back a memory/(a flashback?) but the way in which Gerry was carrying his sleeping child which reminded him of what he had seen. He must have seen pictures of Gerry in the newspapers before then - but they had no affect on him.
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I would take issue with the idea that "no one put it in his head". He decided it might be Gerry ONLY after the McCanns were made arguidos and when he watched Gerry on TV carrying his son in a perfectly normal position that most parents would use for a sleeping 2 year old. So, I think it's likely he was influenced by the turn of events in Sept 07 don't you?
I find it not fair to suggest Mr Smith was "influenced" by the turn of events. The fact he noted the man carried clumsily shows he's not a manipulated person. He wouldn't have invented that, as JT wouldn't have invented the curious way of carrying of "her" carrier.
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I would take issue with the idea that "no one put it in his head". He decided it might be Gerry ONLY after the McCanns were made arguidos and when he watched Gerry on TV carrying his son in a perfectly normal position that most parents would use for a sleeping 2 year old. So, I think it's likely he was influenced by the turn of events in Sept 07 don't you?
I would agree with that. I also think it was not Gerry who brought back a memory/(a flashback?) but the way in which Gerry was carrying his sleeping child which reminded him of what he had seen. He must have seen pictures of Gerry in the newspapers before then - but they had no affect on him.
Exactly. Surely he would have noticed Gerry's gait, before September. He was filmed enough, walking with the children.
He didn't refuse to take part in a photofit, "he states that it is not possible for him to recognise the individual in person or by photograph".
According to Amaral,
Chapter 21 - An Irish family in shock - pages 197-199
- Sept 2007, McCanns return to UK
- Gerry exits the plane, carrying his son against his left shoulder, the child's arms down along his sides, down the stairs and across the tarmack Gerry walks
- The Smith family see this recording on the news at 22h00 and are hit hard: they know this person, this way of carrying a child and of walking. It is Gerry McCann, they believe with a high degree of certainty, that they saw on 3 May at about 22h00, carrying a 4 yr old girl who appeared to be deeply asleep
- The father contacts the police to communicate this new information. He says he has not slept since 9 Sept and is very upset. It's as if he re-lived the night he saw the man carrying the child. Seeing Gerry walk and carry the child, awoke something in his head...
- Still not completely convinced, he watches the news again on ITV and also on Sky.
- No, there are no doubts. Gerry McCann looks just like the same person he saw carrying the child on May 3.
- Smith, upset and worried about what he saw and has concluded, needs the investigators to contact him.
- In late September, the Portuguese police receive this information from Smith. This appears to be a piece of the puzzle.
- Now Jane Tanner's insistence at seeing the abductor go the other direction makes sense, removing attentions from the way Gerry walked, in the direction of the beach. The man carrying a child didn't walk east towards Murat's house, but west in the direction of the Smiths.
- This puzzle piece allows the investigators to reconstruct what happened on that cold night of 3 May. The puzzle is almost complete.
- We make the decision to bring the Smiths back to Portugal. They will be heard, and in legal and procedural terms, will give their identification using televised images, since a personal identification [of Gerry] is out of the question.
- A reconstitution of that night, with the Smiths, is seriously considered.
- But the Smiths don't return to Portugal.
- The Portuguese police changed their minds after GA leaves the team; they decide to use the international request mechanism [letters rogatory]
- This leads to absurd delays
- In the meantime, rumours abound that strangers to the investigation have found about about this witness and his family and, supposedly, have tried to talk to Smith, though their intentions in doing so are unknown.
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Personally I wouldn't call "clumsy" the way Mr McCann carries his son when stepping down from the plane (though I only saw photos).
This is why I'm wondering.
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I would take issue with the idea that "no one put it in his head". He decided it might be Gerry ONLY after the McCanns were made arguidos and when he watched Gerry on TV carrying his son in a perfectly normal position that most parents would use for a sleeping 2 year old. So, I think it's likely he was influenced by the turn of events in Sept 07 don't you?
I would agree with that. I also think it was not Gerry who brought back a memory/(a flashback?) but the way in which Gerry was carrying his sleeping child which reminded him of what he had seen. He must have seen pictures of Gerry in the newspapers before then - but they had no affect on him.
Exactly. Surely he would have noticed Gerry's gait, before September. He was filmed enough, walking with the children.
He didn't refuse to take part in a photofit, "he states that it is not possible for him to recognise the individual in person or by photograph".
According to Amaral,
Chapter 21 - An Irish family in shock - pages 197-199
- Sept 2007, McCanns return to UK
- Gerry exits the plane, carrying his son against his left shoulder, the child's arms down along his sides, down the stairs and across the tarmack Gerry walks
- The Smith family see this recording on the news at 22h00 and are hit hard: they know this person, this way of carrying a child and of walking. It is Gerry McCann, they believe with a high degree of certainty, that they saw on 3 May at about 22h00, carrying a 4 yr old girl who appeared to be deeply asleep
- The father contacts the police to communicate this new information. He says he has not slept since 9 Sept and is very upset. It's as if he re-lived the night he saw the man carrying the child. Seeing Gerry walk and carry the child, awoke something in his head...
- Still not completely convinced, he watches the news again on ITV and also on Sky.
- No, there are no doubts. Gerry McCann looks just like the same person he saw carrying the child on May 3.
- Smith, upset and worried about what he saw and has concluded, needs the investigators to contact him.
- In late September, the Portuguese police receive this information from Smith. This appears to be a piece of the puzzle.
- Now Jane Tanner's insistence at seeing the abductor go the other direction makes sense, removing attentions from the way Gerry walked, in the direction of the beach. The man carrying a child didn't walk east towards Murat's house, but west in the direction of the Smiths.
- This puzzle piece allows the investigators to reconstruct what happened on that cold night of 3 May. The puzzle is almost complete.
- We make the decision to bring the Smiths back to Portugal. They will be heard, and in legal and procedural terms, will give their identification using televised images, since a personal identification [of Gerry] is out of the question.
- A reconstitution of that night, with the Smiths, is seriously considered.
- But the Smiths don't return to Portugal.
- The Portuguese police changed their minds after GA leaves the team; they decide to use the international request mechanism [letters rogatory]
- This leads to absurd delays
- In the meantime, rumours abound that strangers to the investigation have found about about this witness and his family and, supposedly, have tried to talk to Smith, though their intentions in doing so are unknown.
Hmm. The fact that Amaral had misunderstood may account for the fact that the family had not come back, yet again.
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Personally I wouldn't call "clumsy" the way Mr McCann carries his son when stepping down from the plane (though I only saw photos).
This is why I'm wondering.
How else does one carry a sleeping child in one's arms down steep steps leading from an aircraft?
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I would take issue with the idea that "no one put it in his head". He decided it might be Gerry ONLY after the McCanns were made arguidos and when he watched Gerry on TV carrying his son in a perfectly normal position that most parents would use for a sleeping 2 year old. So, I think it's likely he was influenced by the turn of events in Sept 07 don't you?
I find it not fair to suggest Mr Smith was "influenced" by the turn of events. The fact he noted the man carried clumsily shows he's not a manipulated person. He wouldn't have invented that, as JT wouldn't have invented the curious way of carrying of "her" carrier.
I have absolutely no problem with Mr Smith's doubt. None at all. But he saw a man, looking down with a child in his arms, walking down steps in dim lighting.
He also saw Gerry carrying Sean, who was fast asleep, going down the steps from an aircraft.
Of course both would be looking down. No one wants to trip with a child in their arms.
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I would take issue with the idea that "no one put it in his head". He decided it might be Gerry ONLY after the McCanns were made arguidos and when he watched Gerry on TV carrying his son in a perfectly normal position that most parents would use for a sleeping 2 year old. So, I think it's likely he was influenced by the turn of events in Sept 07 don't you?
I find it not fair to suggest Mr Smith was "influenced" by the turn of events. The fact he noted the man carried clumsily shows he's not a manipulated person. He wouldn't have invented that, as JT wouldn't have invented the curious way of carrying of "her" carrier.
I have absolutely no problem with Mr Smith's doubt. None at all. But he saw a man, looking down with a child in his arms, walking down steps in dim lighting.
He also saw Gerry carrying Sean, who was fast asleep, going down the steps from an aircraft.
Of course both would be looking down. No one wants to trip with a child in their arms.
Mr Smith didn't see the carrier walking down steps. The carrier looked down but that's not what jogged Mr Smith's memory.
He notes that it is normal to see people carrying children, especially during the holiday season...
He adds that he did not hold the child in a comfortable position.
26 May 2007
JT carrier also didn't hold the child in a comfortable position. Yet the positions are totally different.
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Not that far between the McCann's apartment and the Smiths Estrela hotel apartment.
To the left is the hotel apartment, you can just make out the CCTV camera. Which Amaral pointed out.
To the right round a couple of sharp bends is the Ocean club apartments.
The road with the bins are, is the road coming from where Martin Smith saw the man carrying a child.
(http://i307.photobucket.com/albums/nn315/itsonlyme_08/Gonc%20crap/McCannsapartmentandEstrelahotel.jpg)