Disappeared and Abducted Children and Young Adults => Madeleine McCann (3) disappeared from her parent's holiday apartment at Ocean Club, Praia da Luz, Portugal on 3 May 2007. No trace of her has ever been found. => Topic started by: Mr Gray on December 30, 2013, 09:23:52 PM
Title: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 30, 2013, 09:23:52 PM
I wondered what posters views on this was...it may reveal why they have come to the conclusion they have.
1239
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on December 30, 2013, 09:41:02 PM
I don't believe a word they say, davel, but can't claim to know what happened to Madeleine, of course.
I still sometimes think it's a hoax. >@@(*&)
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Eleanor on December 30, 2013, 11:50:56 PM
Statistics are irrelevant. Even if no child was ever abducted by a stranger then there could always be a first time. But this is not so because small children have been abducted by strangers. And then turned up many years later, relatively unharmed.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on December 31, 2013, 02:32:42 AM
Stranger abduction is indeed exceptionally rare. As we know, the vast majority of abductions involve custody and other family disputes, or someone close to the family.
Anne Guedes, in my opinion, makes an important point when she asks if there has ever been a case of abduction from bed on the European continent. As far as I have managed to find out - and Anne has also put the question to the forum many times - there appear to be no recorded instances.
I have found half a dozen or so relatively recent American cases of abduction from bed (or from the private quarters of homes during the night). Still no European examples however.
So it is fair to say that if we speak of abduction from 5A, we are speaking about something incredibly rare indeed; possibly about something that has never before happened in Europe.
And if we are talking about abduction in the sense of Madeleine having wandered into the street and falling prey to someone who 'got lucky', that is obviously a highly unusual situation too.
Having said all that, parental involvement in the child's death or disappearance - a much more likely scenario in terms of statistics in the abstract - in this particular case, would entail the parents' guilt of other major crimes (perverting the course of justice in several countries; serious fraud, to name but two) as well.
Rare as abduction may be, one is phenomenally hard pressed to find any case of murder/serious harm to a person that involves not only the degree but the combination of different types of corruption, criminality, and deception - and the psychopathic tendencies to go with - that would be implied in accusing the McCanns of harming or concealing their daughter.
If the McCanns were guilty of all these things - because if guilty of one, they are guilty of all - the case would be a world first in its scale and scope. Can anyone find a precedent or statistics for a crime like that? I suggest there are none. In the words of King David, 'there is nothing new under the sun', and on that basis I find the likelihood of the McCanns being guilty to be almost nil.
I also note that despite the rarity of abduction from bed, there have been many abduction and missing person cases in the Iberian Peninsula and other parts of the Mediterranean in recent years, and I believe that it is within that context that we ought to be considering Madeleine's disappearance.
This cultural approach was brought home to me whilst reading some of the theories of 'profiler' Pat Brown. Her almost totally US-centric (and therefore frequently factually incorrect) vision of just about every aspect - linguistic, cultural, legal, geographic - of this case was a powerful demonstration to me that looking at life on the ground and understanding the cultural context of an event is crucial.
This all leads in the direction of the many strange people witnessed to be in the vicinity of 5A in the days prior to Madeleine's disappearance, with the knowledge in mind that there are numerous individuals and groups in the area and all around Europe who are known to be preying on youngsters for all kinds of reasons. Then there is the geographical position of Portugal itself: part of mainland Europe both legally and physically, and in close proximity also to Africa and the rest of the Mediterranean. This broadening of geographic possibilities increases vastly the number of possible predators and motives, and therefore magnifies the statistical likelihood that Madeleine could have found her way into the hands of an unsavoury person or been passed along a chain.
Apologies for the long-windedness of the answer and the dearth of percentages. Bottom line, as unlikely as it may be in the wider scheme of things, I believe abduction here to be a much more than likely scenario in comparison to the other options.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Eleanor on December 31, 2013, 02:54:43 AM
Well there's a turn up for the book. I cannot fault your analysis, although my own opinion is a little more basic. But then I have long been a McCann supporter.
I believe in mathematics and consequentially in logistics, and it didn't take me very long to work out that The McCanns can simply not have done that of which they have been accused.
But I don't want to spoil what you have said, so I am not going to say anymore.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on December 31, 2013, 03:32:11 AM
Well there's a turn up for the book. I cannot fault your analysis, although my own opinion is a little more basic. But then I have long been a McCann supporter.
I believe in mathematics and consequentially in logistics, and it didn't take me very long to work out that The McCanns can simply not have done that of which they have been accused.
But I don't want to spoil what you have said, so I am not going to say anymore.
Well thank you for your generous answer, Eleanor. Yes, the 'mathematical' element is an exceptionally important factor here. Maybe even the most important factor in pointing the finger of suspicion at a third party.
I have yet to hear a credible, detailed account of how exactly the McCanns could have done anything like the things that are implied by some, on the timeline as we understand it.
That timeline or understanding of events, of course, could change upon receipt of new information. Though if recent 'revelation moments' are anything to go by, we'll be waiting a long time.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Joanne on December 31, 2013, 05:46:42 AM
50%? She was either abducted or not, or is that too simples?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: colombosstogey on December 31, 2013, 07:12:36 AM
Stranger abduction is indeed exceptionally rare. As we know, the vast majority of abductions involve custody and other family disputes, or someone close to the family.
Anne Guedes, in my opinion, makes an important point when she asks if there has ever been a case of abduction from bed on the European continent. As far as I have managed to find out - and Anne has also put the question to the forum many times - there appear to be no recorded instances.
I have found half a dozen or so relatively recent American cases of abduction from bed (or from the private quarters of homes during the night). Still no European examples however.
So it is fair to say that if we speak of abduction from 5A, we are speaking about something incredibly rare indeed; possibly about something that has never before happened in Europe.
And if we are talking about abduction in the sense of Madeleine having wandered into the street and falling prey to someone who 'got lucky', that is obviously a highly unusual situation too.
Having said all that, parental involvement in the child's death or disappearance - a much more likely scenario in terms of statistics in the abstract - in this particular case, would entail the parents' guilt of other major crimes (perverting the course of justice in several countries; serious fraud, to name but two) as well.
Rare as abduction may be, one is phenomenally hard pressed to find any case of murder/serious harm to a person that involves not only the degree but the combination of different types of corruption, criminality, and deception - and the psychopathic tendencies to go with - that would be implied in accusing the McCanns of harming or concealing their daughter.
If the McCanns were guilty of all these things - because if guilty of one, they are guilty of all - the case would be a world first in its scale and scope. Can anyone find a precedent or statistics for a crime like that? I suggest there are none. In the words of King David, 'there is nothing new under the sun', and on that basis I find the likelihood of the McCanns being guilty to be almost nil.
I also note that despite the rarity of abduction from bed, there have been many abduction and missing person cases in the Iberian Peninsula and other parts of the Mediterranean in recent years, and I believe that it is within that context that we ought to be considering Madeleine's disappearance.
This cultural approach was brought home to me whilst reading some of the theories of 'profiler' Pat Brown. Her almost totally US-centric (and therefore frequently factually incorrect) vision of just about every aspect - linguistic, cultural, legal, geographic - of this case was a powerful demonstration to me that looking at life on the ground and understanding the cultural context of an event is crucial.
This all leads in the direction of the many strange people witnessed to be in the vicinity of 5A in the days prior to Madeleine's disappearance, with the knowledge in mind that there are numerous individuals and groups in the area and all around Europe who are known to be preying on youngsters for all kinds of reasons. Then there is the geographical position of Portugal itself: part of mainland Europe both legally and physically, and in close proximity also to Africa and the rest of the Mediterranean. This broadening of geographic possibilities increases vastly the number of possible predators and motives, and therefore magnifies the statistical likelihood that Madeleine could have found her way into the hands of an unsavoury person or been passed along a chain.
Apologies for the long-windedness of the answer and the dearth of percentages. Bottom line, as unlikely as it may be in the wider scheme of things, I believe abduction here to be a much more than likely scenario in comparison to the other options.
So are you saying that she wandered out and was taken by a gang working in the Iberian Penisula? The location I agree with, it would be easy to move a child and end up even in Africa, but I dont agree with this particular location.
PDL is a close knit community and very popular with expats.
Not only that it was slightly out of season so not as busy as it would be in the summer months, where a lot of strangers hanging about would not have been so much noticed or standing out like sore thumbs.
Yes we are told there were odd people seen, but were there really? Its a biggish village with people toing and froing hardly unusual to see a few odd people stood about.
You mentioned quite a few children taken in the Iberian Penisular. I actually checked every single missing child in Portugal, and a high percentage of them were by family or someone they knew and although no body found it was thought they had died. I found one where they believe the boy had been taken by a gang, but then there is a guy I believe in prison over him....
Sadly there are so many lost children in Eastern Europe that gangs do not need to take children away from holiday camps.
As to the McCanns well yes you make a good point, but it does happen. Just recently the lady in france comes to mind she kept it up for months..........http://www.thelocal.fr/20130926/mother-of-missing-fiona-admits-daughter-was-killed
There have been other cases of this all over the world.....
The McCanns are not normal people either, they are professional people used to dealing with difficult decisions and also they have friends in high places. They could have done it and got away with it I am a cynic until someone shows me POSITIVE proof they had nothing to do with their childs disappearance there will always be that doubt in my mind.
As to the chances of the child being abducted. I would say about 5% chance. I think she could have been taken by someone who she knew it niggles me but I think she knew the person who took her, and she went on foot...through the front door.
I think you have given it a lot of thought, but for me the location was totally WRONG.
Thats why there has never been a child taken from bed in this are EVER....tooooo risky.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on December 31, 2013, 09:10:13 AM
I'm puzzled why the fact that no identical abduction case can be referred back to should be used as a reason why Madeleine could not have been abducted from her bed. As far as I know no two abduction cases are the same - they are all individual and different. I'd never heard of a child being abducted from her bath until fairly recently - but that happened.
If it was a premeditated planned abduction, then the Ocean club in PdL is an ideal location IMO.
Holiday resorts are constantly full of strange faces as holidaymakers come and go.
It is on the coastline, so escape could be made by boat or by road.
There was no CCTV at the complex.
It was advertised as a child-friendly place.
IIRC The general public were allowed to go in and out.
5A was ideally situated and described as a burglars dream IIRC by the UK police.
IMO the fact that Madeleine was abducted on the night before the last night of the holiday is very pertinent - as the perpetrator would be aware that routines can change on the last night - as people prepare to depart the following day.
I also think the PT laws may have been a factor. In Portugal if a child disappears it appears there is no immediate media public campaign to draw attention to that fact - as there would be in other countries. IMO that lack of publicity would be seen as a massive advantage to would-be abductor(s).
All in all therefore it seems to me that anyone planning to abduct a child would have concluded that PdL, the child friendly Ocean club and apartment 5A fitted the bill perfectly - especially if more than one abductor was involved.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on December 31, 2013, 09:27:23 AM
I'm puzzled why the fact that no identical abduction case can be referred back to should be used as a reason why Madeleine could not have been abducted from her bed. As far as I know no two abduction cases are the same - they are all individual and different. I'd never heard of a child being abducted from her bath until fairly recently - but that happened.
If it was a premeditated planned abduction, then the Ocean club in PdL is an ideal location IMO.
Holiday resorts are constantly full of strange faces as holidaymakers come and go.
It is on the coastline, so escape could be made by boat or by road.
There was no CCTV at the complex.
It was advertised as a child-friendly place.
IIRC The general public were allowed to go in and out.
5A was ideally situated and described as a burglars dream IIRC by the UK police.
IMO the fact that Madeleine was abducted on the night before the last night of the holiday is very pertinent - as the perpetrator would be aware that routines can change on the last night - as people prepare to depart the following day.
I also think the PT laws may have been a factor. In Portugal if a child disappears it appears there is no immediate media public campaign to draw attention to that fact - as there would be in other countries. IMO that lack of publicity would be seen as a massive advantage to would-be abductor(s).
All in all therefore it seems to me that anyone planning to abduct a child would have concluded that PdL, the child friendly Ocean club and apartment 5A fitted the bill perfectly - especially if more than one abductor was involved.
So why not 'abduct' Madeleine's younger sister ?
Far easier to carry and less hassle.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on December 31, 2013, 09:32:37 AM
Gang ? There isn't any evidence of even a single abductor, let alone a gang of them.
Madeleine had disappeared and the shutters and window had been opened by person or persons unknown. That is evidence of an abduction.
Whether you want to believe it or not is immateriail - as the people who matter - i.e. SY - obviously do believe the McCanns account of how they found the room as they are treating this case as one of 'stranger abduction'.
Anyone who thinks the SY team came to to that conclusion lightly - is being totally unrealistic IMO.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on December 31, 2013, 10:00:38 AM
Madeleine had disappeared and the shutters and window had been opened by person or persons unknown. That is evidence of an abduction.
Whether you want to believe it or not is immateriail - as the people who matter - i.e. SY - obviously do believe the McCanns account of how they found the room as they are treating this case as one of 'stranger abduction'.
Anyone who thinks the SY team came to to that conclusion lightly - is being totally unrealistic IMO.
Madeleine disappeared YES.
Shutters and windows opened, there is no proof of that.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Lace on December 31, 2013, 10:23:46 AM
Well SY and the PJ have come to the same conclusion that Madeleine was abducted, that is good enough for me.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on December 31, 2013, 10:29:53 AM
Shutters and windows opened, there is no proof of that.
Only in your opinion Stephen. Kate McCann is a witness to the window/shutters being open and it's obvious that SY have deemed her to be a credible witness.
The first task IMO for the SY Team would have been to thoroughly investigate and examine the McCanns and their friends- both on a personal face to face basis and also by conducting all kinds of background checks on them. It's obvious that those investigations produced nothing to cast any doubt on the veracity of the McCanns and their friends.
If that wasn't the case there would have been no public announcement by SY that neither the McCanns nor their friends were considered to be suspects or even persons of interest in this case.
If you believe you are better situated to know more than the SY Team know about this case and to believe your knowledge of the McCanns and their friends is superior to theirs - then that's your prerogative.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Montclair on December 31, 2013, 10:36:08 AM
Well SY and the PJ have come to the same conclusion that Madeleine was abducted, that is good enough for me.
What gives you the idea that the PJ have concluded that Madeleine was abducted? No one situation has ever been confirmed since the investigation was never carried to full term. Even in the shelving report, all hypotheses are considered, not just one.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Montclair on December 31, 2013, 10:41:32 AM
Only in your opinion Stephen. Kate McCann is a witness to the window/shutters being open and it's obvious that SY have deemed her to be a credible witness.
The first task IMO for the SY Team would have been to thoroughly investigate and examine the McCanns and their friends- both on a personal face to face basis and also by conducting all kinds of background checks on them. It's obvious that those investigations produced nothing to cast any doubt on the veracity of the McCanns and their friends.
If that wasn't the case there would have been no public announcement by SY that neither the McCanns nor their friends were considered to be suspects or even persons of interest in this case.
If you believe you are better situated to know more than the SY Team know about this case and to believe your knowledge of the McCanns and their friends is superior to theirs - then that's your prerogative.
Kate McCann credible! As for being suspects or persons of interest, do you honestly believe that SY would have announced to the world that they suspected the parents and their friends? I believe the fact that the parents and their friends changed their stories everytime they could would be enough to cast doubts on their veracity.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on December 31, 2013, 10:44:13 AM
Madeleine had disappeared and the shutters and window had been opened by person or persons unknown. That is evidence of an abduction.
Whether you want to believe it or not is immateriail - as the people who matter - i.e. SY - obviously do believe the McCanns account of how they found the room as they are treating this case as one of 'stranger abduction'.
Anyone who thinks the SY team came to to that conclusion lightly - is being totally unrealistic IMO.
No, its evidence of a disappearance, cause unknown.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on December 31, 2013, 10:57:21 AM
Only in your opinion Stephen. Kate McCann is a witness to the window/shutters being open and it's obvious that SY have deemed her to be a credible witness.
The first task IMO for the SY Team would have been to thoroughly investigate and examine the McCanns and their friends- both on a personal face to face basis and also by conducting all kinds of background checks on them. It's obvious that those investigations produced nothing to cast any doubt on the veracity of the McCanns and their friends.
If that wasn't the case there would have been no public announcement by SY that neither the McCanns nor their friends were considered to be suspects or even persons of interest in this case.
If you believe you are better situated to know more than the SY Team know about this case and to believe your knowledge of the McCanns and their friends is superior to theirs - then that's your prerogative.
No that is not just my opinion, it is shared by others, as is your opinion of what happened.
As to SY, why haven't they stated openly they have investigated the Mccanns and their associates, and cleared them ?
As far as I can see they have not stated they have even interviewed them.......................
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 11:13:07 AM
Stranger abduction is indeed exceptionally rare. As we know, the vast majority of abductions involve custody and other family disputes, or someone close to the family.
Anne Guedes, in my opinion, makes an important point when she asks if there has ever been a case of abduction from bed on the European continent. As far as I have managed to find out - and Anne has also put the question to the forum many times - there appear to be no recorded instances.
I have found half a dozen or so relatively recent American cases of abduction from bed (or from the private quarters of homes during the night). Still no European examples however.
So it is fair to say that if we speak of abduction from 5A, we are speaking about something incredibly rare indeed; possibly about something that has never before happened in Europe.
And if we are talking about abduction in the sense of Madeleine having wandered into the street and falling prey to someone who 'got lucky', that is obviously a highly unusual situation too.
Having said all that, parental involvement in the child's death or disappearance - a much more likely scenario in terms of statistics in the abstract - in this particular case, would entail the parents' guilt of other major crimes (perverting the course of justice in several countries; serious fraud, to name but two) as well.
Rare as abduction may be, one is phenomenally hard pressed to find any case of murder/serious harm to a person that involves not only the degree but the combination of different types of corruption, criminality, and deception - and the psychopathic tendencies to go with - that would be implied in accusing the McCanns of harming or concealing their daughter.
If the McCanns were guilty of all these things - because if guilty of one, they are guilty of all - the case would be a world first in its scale and scope. Can anyone find a precedent or statistics for a crime like that? I suggest there are none. In the words of King David, 'there is nothing new under the sun', and on that basis I find the likelihood of the McCanns being guilty to be almost nil.
I also note that despite the rarity of abduction from bed, there have been many abduction and missing person cases in the Iberian Peninsula and other parts of the Mediterranean in recent years, and I believe that it is within that context that we ought to be considering Madeleine's disappearance.
This cultural approach was brought home to me whilst reading some of the theories of 'profiler' Pat Brown. Her almost totally US-centric (and therefore frequently factually incorrect) vision of just about every aspect - linguistic, cultural, legal, geographic - of this case was a powerful demonstration to me that looking at life on the ground and understanding the cultural context of an event is crucial.
This all leads in the direction of the many strange people witnessed to be in the vicinity of 5A in the days prior to Madeleine's disappearance, with the knowledge in mind that there are numerous individuals and groups in the area and all around Europe who are known to be preying on youngsters for all kinds of reasons. Then there is the geographical position of Portugal itself: part of mainland Europe both legally and physically, and in close proximity also to Africa and the rest of the Mediterranean. This broadening of geographic possibilities increases vastly the number of possible predators and motives, and therefore magnifies the statistical likelihood that Madeleine could have found her way into the hands of an unsavoury person or been passed along a chain.
Apologies for the long-windedness of the answer and the dearth of percentages. Bottom line, as unlikely as it may be in the wider scheme of things, I believe abduction here to be a much more than likely scenario in comparison to the other options.
I think Annes point has no value...a stranger abduction is a stranger abduction and to introduce other factors such as "from a bed" is not valid. Next she will be saying " A stranger abduction from a bed of a girl with blonde hair named Maddie" to make the abduction seem more unlikely.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on December 31, 2013, 11:23:26 AM
Kate McCann credible! As for being suspects or persons of interest, do you honestly believe that SY would have announced to the world that they suspected the parents and their friends? I believe the fact that the parents and their friends changed their stories everytime they could would be enough to cast doubts on their veracity.
I have no doubt whatsoever that SY would make the PUBLIC announcement which they did - specifically ruling out the McCanns and their friends if they did not believe that was the case. To believe otherwise would make them part of some massive conspiracy - and would make me a conspiracy theorist. I'm as far away from being a conspiracy theorist as you can get - as it seems to me it always involves the suspension or intelligent reasoned thought, common sense and logic.
We're talking about an ordinary, run of the mill couple from Leicester who went on holiday and had the misfortune to have their daughter abducted. There is not a single scrap of evidence to suggest anything sinister about them or their lives which would provoke some massive cover up by the UK police or anyone else in authority for that matter.
Neither is there a single scrap of evidence or even a single reason to believe SY - in cohoots with the PT team, are in reality - playing some intricate convulated game of bluff and double bluff with the McCanns and are going to suddenly pounce on them and arrest them. The whole idea could not be more preposterous IMO.
Must go out now.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 11:23:58 AM
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 11:27:54 AM
its my opinion that taking all the factors into account, statistically, abduction may well be the most probable cause of Maddies disappearance and this is why SY are following this route.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on December 31, 2013, 11:33:58 AM
It's my opinion that since bundleman has been debunked & the current 'sighting' being investigated is of a man with a passing resemblence to Gerry McCann carrying an inert child through a dark street towards the ocean, that death & concealment is the more likely scenario.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 11:44:34 AM
It's my opinion that since bundleman has been debunked & the current 'sighting' being investigated is of a man with a passing resemblence to Gerry McCann carrying an inert child through a dark street towards the ocean, that death & concealment is the more likely scenario.
will your opinion change if smithman is debunked
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on December 31, 2013, 11:52:00 AM
Kate McCann credible! As for being suspects or persons of interest, do you honestly believe that SY would have announced to the world that they suspected the parents and their friends? I believe the fact that the parents and their friends changed their stories everytime they could would be enough to cast doubts on their veracity.
Montclair
Kate has been open about a number of things that others would hide.
If some of the posters on here were half as honest as Kate Mccann. the world would be a better place.
You have heard the expert opinion on here, say that there will be some variance in statements, even from a single person. It is the norm.
Ot maybe you haven't heard ? But it is the experts opinion that the variances in the Mccanns and Tapas groups statements are well within the norm.
I am not going to search for the sources, but any honest [ censored word] on here will admit to having seen that expert opinion.
Why should you know better?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on December 31, 2013, 11:52:32 AM
Possibly, if someone could give a feasible explanation of the abduction from bed via window scenario, a good reason why their memories of which doors they used etc changed over time & why a death dog alerted to objects & areas associated only with the McCanns and nowhere else.
I haven't seen any so far.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on December 31, 2013, 11:55:48 AM
It's my opinion that since bundleman has been debunked & the current 'sighting' being investigated is of a man with a passing resemblence to Gerry McCann carrying an inert child through a dark street towards the ocean, that death & concealment is the more likely scenario.
[For what reason do you think a dead child would openly be carried thru the streets ?
Why not use a bag? ... or a roll of carpet? ... to conceal the body?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on December 31, 2013, 11:55:53 AM
its my opinion that taking all the factors into account, statistically, abduction may well be the most probable cause of Maddies disappearance and this is why SY are following this route.
Probability should not be confused with possibility. For example, it is possible that if I buy lottery tickets, I might become a multimillionaire, but it is not very probable.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 11:57:37 AM
What is the success rate in solving crimes by the SY and PJ respectively ?
Meanwhile can you say with 100% certainty Madeleine did not die in the apartment ?
I think SY have a very good success rate compared to other police forces. Your second question has been asked and answered many times before...its called a celestial teapot argument as it is a bit silly....we cant say 100% that little green men from mars were not involved...
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on December 31, 2013, 11:59:34 AM
Possibly, if someone could give a feasible explanation of the abduction from bed via window scenario, a good reason why their memories of which doors they used etc changed over time & why a death dog alerted to objects & areas associated only with the McCanns and nowhere else.
I haven't seen any so far.
Seems no person, adult or child went thru that window WSpam.
There was a well publicised abduction of a child from her bath in the UK. The paedo came in and grabbed her with some of her family in the house. They wre not aware that she had been taken by this vile paedo.
A slick operation. Poor kid.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on December 31, 2013, 12:00:17 PM
[For what reason do you think a dead child would openly be carried thru the streets ?
Why not use a bag? ... or a roll of carpet? ... to conceal the body?
Too obvious. There were often parents carrying children around the resort so we are told. If someone was seen hurrying through the night with a rolled up carpet it would stick out like a sore thumb. I used to fit carpets & we didn't work nightshifts.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on December 31, 2013, 12:01:04 PM
Probability should not be confused with possibility. For example, it is possible that if I buy lottery tickets, I might become a multimillionaire, but it is not very probable.
this is exactly the point I make...well done. it was very, very unlikely that Maddie WOULD be abducted by a stranger....the fact that she is missing make the odds much more likely that she was
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on December 31, 2013, 12:03:56 PM
Too obvious. There were often parents carrying children around the resort so we are told. If someone was seen hurrying through the night with a rolled up carpet it would stick out like a sore thumb. I used to fit carpets & we didn't work nightshifts.
What about a bag then? Bags at holiday resorts are very common.
Easy enough to replace one.
No-one, I repeat NO-ONE in their right mind would carry a dead child throught the streets like that. Far too risky.
The Mccanns aren't idiots, you know.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on December 31, 2013, 12:04:35 PM
Do you think Gerry would have been in his right mind having found his daughter 'gone'.
Your right Gerry wouldn't have been in his right mind if he found his daughter 'gone' neither would he be in his right mind if he was hiding her body.
Not in his right mind enough to - have a normal conversation with jez, go back and laugh and chat with friends, then pull off the most convincing act of a father who had just found his daughter missing, seen by many witnesses including the police.
Not only would Kate and Gerry have had to be fantastic actors, but their friends would have too, pretend searching, pretend panic when asking the public to help search, pretence when talking to the police, and lying in their statements.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on December 31, 2013, 12:30:12 PM
I don't believe a word they say, davel, but can't claim to know what happened to Madeleine, of course.
I still sometimes think it's a hoax. >@@(*&)
For 41 years scientists have been cheated by the most famous and spectacular hoax of the XXth. The motive behind Eoanthropus dawsoni remains a mystery, but the factors explaining the success of the hoax have been thoroughly analysed.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on December 31, 2013, 12:30:43 PM
Your right Gerry wouldn't have been in his right mind if he found his daughter 'gone' neither would he be in his right mind if he was hiding her body.
Not in his right mind enough to - have a normal conversation with jez, go back and laugh and chat with friends, then pull off the most convincing act of a father who had just found his daughter missing, seen by many witnesses including the police.
Not only would Kate and Gerry have had to be fantastic actors, but their friends would have too, pretend searching, pretend panic when asking the public to help search, pretence when talking to the police, and lying in their statements.
They weren't that convincing with their prayers too mecca & also maybe not the entire group of friends knew what had actually happened, add to that since Kate 'knew immediatley she'd been taken' the 'searching' & not immediatley calling the police doesn't fit. And I have never been convinced by any of their media performances since 4th May 2007.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on December 31, 2013, 12:37:21 PM
No please enlighten us with your greater inteligence.
How would anyone know she was dead?
You surely know the dangers there might have been carrying a dead child like you suggest. The pallor, the dreadful dead look of a child.
I know, my son as a child died at home of the effects of a brain tumour. The look was indescribable.
Anyone passing might have asked "Was the child dead? Could they help"
And if the police had stopped him then how would the carrier get out of the fact that he was acrrying a dead, murdered child? On the other hand, if the child was drugged, and alive, the carrier could say she was sick and he was taking her to the doctors or rushing to get help.
Now, I would have expected you to have worked that out for yourself. I think you are having me on 8(0(* @)(++(*
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on December 31, 2013, 12:46:18 PM
Imagine that Mr McCann found the perpetrator in the flat (in Tannerman time he himself admitted they were both there), with Madeleine in his arms and a knife near her neck. The perpetrator -- I want this child, she's exactly like my dead daughter. Let me take her, and no harm will happen to her. Now go back to the tapas, at the first sign of launching the alarm I'll kill your daughter. You'll be like me, an orphan. Send your wife at 10, tell her to open the shutters and the window for the police know this was an abduction. I wouldn't like you to be accused of killing your own daughter and to conceal her body. I'm not alone, you're spotted, so you better do as I said. Would Mr McCann have had to be an excellent actor or just a loving father ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on December 31, 2013, 12:47:12 PM
You surely know the dangers there might have been carrying a dead child like you suggest. The pallor, the dreadful dead look of a child.
I know, my son as a child died at home of the effects of a brain tumour. The look was indescribable.
Anyone passing might have asked "Was the child dead? Could they help"
And if the police had stopped him then how would the carrier get out of the fact that he was acrrying a dead, murdered child? On the other hand, if the child was drugged, and alive, the carrier could say she was sick and he was taking her to the doctors or rushing to get help.
Now, I would have expected you to have worked that out for yourself. I think you are having me on 8(0(* @)(++(*
I think that carrying the child through the streets was a desperate measure employed because there were no other options and had he been caught, it would have been all over. As it transpired, he got away with it.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on December 31, 2013, 12:47:17 PM
You surely know the dangers there might have been carrying a dead child like you suggest. The pallor, the dreadful dead look of a child.
I know, my son as a child died at home of the effects of a brain tumour. The look was indescribable.
Anyone passing might have asked "Was the child dead? Could they help"
And if the police had stopped him then how would the carrier get out of the fact that he was acrrying a dead, murdered child? On the other hand, if the child was drugged, and alive, the carrier could say she was sick and he was taking her to the doctors or rushing to get help.
Now, I would have expected you to have worked that out for yourself. I think you are having me on 8(0(* @)(++(*
Why would the police stop him? Would there be any beat bobbies out at that time what with the Portuguese police being so terrible so we are often told.
Would she look dead in the dark, with her head resting against his shoulder? Just a blonde haired girl in pyjamas sleeping deeply. Eternal rest perhaps.
P.S, I don't think she was murdered and I never have.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 12:51:01 PM
Imagine that Mr McCann found the perpetrator in the flat (in Tannerman time he himself admitted they were both there), with Madeleine in his arms and a knife near her neck. The perpetrator -- I want this child, she's exactly like my dead daughter. Let me take her, and no harm will happen to her. Now go back to the tapas, at the first sign of launching the alarm I'll kill your daughter. You'll be like me, an orphan. Send your wife at 10, tell her to open the shutters and the window for the police know this was an abduction. I wouldn't like you to be accused of killing your own daughter and to conceal her body. I'm not alone, you're spotted, so you better do as I said. Would Mr McCann have had to be an excellent actor or just a loving father ?
Is this meant to be serious
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on December 31, 2013, 12:52:53 PM
They weren't that convincing with their prayers too mecca & also maybe not the entire group of friends knew what had actually happened, add to that since Kate 'knew immediatley she'd been taken' the 'searching' & not immediatley calling the police doesn't fit. And I have never been convinced by any of their media performances since 4th May 2007.
Prayers to Mecca? Who says? some PT cops who dont even speak English ? Knees do sometimes buckle in emotional circumstances.
I can remember falling in love with this guy and on our first date, he said something special .... and in the emotion, my legs gave way and I was on the ground. BludyL did I ever have to fight him off ! He thought that I was offering myself to him !!!
Of course Kate deep down knew, but she tried not to think in that direction. Both she and Gerry are highly intelligent
Someone, Matt I think, ran immediately after the initial local search, within the first few minutes to the main reception for them to call the police.
There seemed to be a delay by reception, before the Police were called.
IIRC Reception notified OC senior staff first and took their guidance from them
Please correct me if I am remembering this incorrectly.
There is a thread all about it earlier in the forum. It was less than 300 metres
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Lyall on December 31, 2013, 12:55:06 PM
Why would the police stop him? Would there be any beat bobbies out at that time what with the Portuguese police being so terrible so we are often told.
Would she look dead in the dark, with her head resting against his shoulder? Just a blonde haired girl in pyjamas sleeping deeply. Eternal rest perhaps.
P.S, I don't think she was murdered and I never have.
To remind you, this all happened at the same time as the alarm was being raised. Had the Mccanns known how to contact the police and a cop been nearby, he might have been stopped. Who knows, but just who would risk such a scenario?
Gotta go. Byee
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Victoria on December 31, 2013, 01:08:47 PM
Anne's thinking outside the box. Such a scenario or something like it could indeed explain a few things.
It's the first time I've ever seen anyone attempt to flesh out a scenario in which the McCanns have lied, and it's just as ridiculous as I expected it to be. Utter, utter nonsense.
But then nobody has ever out forward a believable hypothetical scenario in which things didn't happen the way the McCanns and their friends have said they happened.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on December 31, 2013, 01:09:24 PM
To remind you, this all happened at the same time as the alarm was being raised. Had the Mccanns known how to contact the police and a cop been nearby, he might have been stopped. Who knows, but just who would risk such a scenario?
Gotta go. Byee
A desperate man with no better option.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on December 31, 2013, 01:15:07 PM
It's the first time I've ever seen anyone attempt to flesh out a scenario in which the McCanns have lied, and it's just as ridiculous as I expected it to be. Utter, utter nonsense.
But then nobody has ever out forward a believable hypothetical scenario in which things didn't happen the way the McCanns and their friends have said they happened.
The McCanns have never provided a believable abduction scenario, they tried & it's detail has been changed with the passage of time.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Lyall on December 31, 2013, 01:15:42 PM
It's the first time I've ever seen anyone attempt to flesh out a scenario in which the McCanns have lied, and it's just as ridiculous as I expected it to be. Utter, utter nonsense.
But then nobody has ever out forward a believable hypothetical scenario in which things didn't happen the way the McCanns and their friends have said they happened.
Lied is old fashioned, Victoria. Spun is a better word, and they have definitely done that- right from Day 1. But there could be more than one reason for that.
Truth can be stranger than fiction don't forget and the truth about what happened to Madeleine may well be something nobody has yet thought of.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on December 31, 2013, 01:16:23 PM
"Sometimes people do things for reasons that even they cannot understand." "An act of madness, an accident or sudden impulse can lead to consequences that people may never have imagined or intended."
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Victoria on December 31, 2013, 01:19:04 PM
The McCanns have never provided a believable abduction scenario, they tried & it's detail has been changed with the passage of time.
The police would seem to disagree with you, since it's abduction that they are investigating. Besides, it's not the victims' job to present a scenario. They accounted for the events of the day and their daughter is missing. The rest is up to the police.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on December 31, 2013, 01:23:32 PM
The police would seem to disagree with you, since it's abduction that they are investigating. Besides, it's not the victims' job to present a scenario. They accounted for the events of the day and their daughter is missing. The rest is up to the police.
Yes, they gave various accounts didn't they. Kate even felt the need to amend various aspects of her account in a book several years later.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Lyall on December 31, 2013, 01:23:49 PM
The police would seem to disagree with you, since it's abduction that they are investigating. Besides, it's not the victims' job to present a scenario. They accounted for the events of the day and their daughter is missing. The rest is up to the police.
They are not the victims. Their daughter is (and other children).
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 01:26:05 PM
Lied is old fashioned, Victoria. Spun is a better word, and they have definitely done that- right from Day 1. But there could be more than one reason for that.
Truth can be stranger than fiction don't forget and the truth about what happened to Madeleine may well be something nobody has yet thought of.
I don't accept they have lied or spun...
The initial statements have inconsistencies due to translation issues..imo
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Lyall on December 31, 2013, 01:28:15 PM
The only proven liar with a connection to this case is the police officer who was coordinating the initial investigation, which sadly goes quite a long way to explaining why, six years later, we still don't know what happened to the poor child.
I don't see how you can connect the two as it explains nothing.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on December 31, 2013, 01:35:56 PM
I wondered what posters views on this was...it may reveal why they have come to the conclusion they have.
Doesnt matter what posters think, surely its statistics and facts......snipe me stranger danger, first entry to come up on google on a search for "statistical probability of abduction"
interesting statistics, USA based, not seen any worldwide ones
The answer is extremely low, in the singular percentages, rare, happens, but very low.....well, Gerry Mccann stated it is 100 million to one didnt he IIRC in one of his interviews......
Doesnt matter what posters think, surely its statistics and facts......snipe me stranger danger, first entry to come up on google on a search for "statistical probability of abduction"
interesting statistics, USA based, not seen any worldwide ones
The answer is extremely low, in the singular percentages, rare, happens, but very low.....well, Gerry Mccann stated it is 100 million to one didnt he IIRC in one of his interviews......
If it wasn't such a rare occurrence, it wouldn't be such a big story.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on December 31, 2013, 02:57:18 PM
They'd both have to be completely insane, never mind good actors. Is this really the best you've got? No wonder you've kept it to yourself until now.
Completely insane, no, loving parents in a tricky situation as Anne explained, not wanting to cause a life of guilt for their children. I can go with that, it's more tasteful than Proffessor plum in the drawingroom with the lead pipe.
Kate did claim to know what happened, happened under circumstances other than the children being asleep.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Victoria on December 31, 2013, 03:00:23 PM
Doesnt matter what posters think, surely its statistics and facts......snipe me stranger danger, first entry to come up on google on a search for "statistical probability of abduction"
interesting statistics, USA based, not seen any worldwide ones
The answer is extremely low, in the singular percentages, rare, happens, but very low.....well, Gerry Mccann stated it is 100 million to one didnt he IIRC in one of his interviews......
Not only SY has been for almost 3 years reviewing the case in the one and only perspective of the less plausible of the events listed by the AG, but the PJ has seemingly adopted the same orientation (Tractorman) ! I'm very curious of the manner they'll find to get out of this mud and, moreover, of what will say the next AG report.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Victoria on December 31, 2013, 03:04:58 PM
Completely insane, no, loving parents in a tricky situation as Anne explained, not wanting to cause a life of guilt for their children. I can go with that, it's more tasteful than Proffessor plum in the drawingroom with the lead pipe.
Kate did claim to know what happened, happened under circumstances other than the children being asleep.
Sorry, but it's rubbish. And it still doesn't explain how subsequent events unfolded and how these tied in with known facts. It's not even half-baked, just slightly warm, mushy twaddle.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Victoria on December 31, 2013, 03:06:52 PM
Absolutely, so why didn't the McCanns phone the police...the call is FREE? They were quick enough to phone their family and that call wasn't free?
What did Gerry think his sister could do? Send the cavalry maybe??
Is that what you would do when in a foreign country when you didn't speak the language? Phone the local police and talk slowly and loudly in the hope that they would understand you?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on December 31, 2013, 03:08:06 PM
Is that what you would do when in a foreign country when you didn't speak the language? Phone the local police and talk slowly and loudly in the hope that they would understand you?
Probably not, but it did surprise me that such an important task was delegated and that Gerry was not at the reception desk himself when the call was made.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on December 31, 2013, 03:12:27 PM
Sorry, but it's rubbish. And it still doesn't explain how subsequent events unfolded and how these tied in with known facts. It's not even half-baked, just slightly warm, mushy twaddle.
Give us your abduction scenario then with all it's totally plausible explanations for every inconstancy, I could do with a good laugh. Which one was it, the black guy the creepy man or the spice girl?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Angelo222 on December 31, 2013, 03:14:30 PM
Is that what you would do when in a foreign country when you didn't speak the language? Phone the local police and talk slowly and loudly in the hope that they would understand you?
Police operators in tourist areas can all speak some English and even if they don't they can still call out a patrol in any emergency. I find it highly suspicious that no one in that group wanted to phone the police.
What was their agenda? Was it to create a time delay...an opportunity for some pretendy abductor to get clean away??
Instead of phoning the police what does Matt do. He walks half a mile to the Millenium Restaurant to see if she was there. This was a 3 year old girl alone in the dark in a foreign environment...was he for real??
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on December 31, 2013, 03:14:52 PM
Yep the 'abduction' has been forced into the ears and eyes of every living being, willingly or otherwise.
Excellent point and happens to this day..day day ut with the media onslaught...I mean we had one of their lawyers saying on Panorama he wanted to "expunge" any suggestion the parents were involved.....is that a lawyers job?
@)(++(*
expunge, my arris......failed miserably to date though.....poor failed expunger...let me find the video and edit this post just for entertainments sake!
Probably not, but it did surprise me that such an important task was delegated and that Gerry was not at the reception desk himself when the call was made.
More surprising is Mrs McCann's account in "Madeleine" that he went to the creche, just on top of the reception desk, to check if Madeleine was there, but didn't talk to the receptionist..
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on December 31, 2013, 03:17:24 PM
Not only SY has been for almost 3 years reviewing the case in the one and only perspective of the less plausible of the events listed by the AG, but the PJ has seemingly adopted the same orientation (Tractorman) ! I'm very curious of the manner they'll find to get out of this mud and, moreover, of what will say the next AG report.
Im sure they wont be expecting the McCanns to "prove " their innocence
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Angelo222 on December 31, 2013, 03:22:29 PM
If Madeleine is still alive she is still far too young to contemplate anything except her immediate comfort zone. Give it a few more years and then we will see.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Victoria on December 31, 2013, 03:35:03 PM
I think everyone including the McCanns think that Maddie is almost certainly deceased but there is still a faint hope of finding her alive.
Absolutely agree. No parents will accept that their child is dead for sure without a body, but they will know it's the most likely scenario, as does everyone else.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 03:36:44 PM
very very faint.....no three yr old has ever been abducted and found yrs later....unless you have an example
It has happened Red. Many white children were abducted by red Indians and were later rescued although some returned to the tribes as they were the only family they could remember.
I can't think of a case in western Europe in the last 50 years though.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on December 31, 2013, 03:41:45 PM
Imagine that Mr McCann found the perpetrator in the flat (in Tannerman time he himself admitted they were both there), with Madeleine in his arms and a knife near her neck. The perpetrator -- I want this child, she's exactly like my dead daughter. Let me take her, and no harm will happen to her. Now go back to the tapas, at the first sign of launching the alarm I'll kill your daughter. You'll be like me, an orphan. Send your wife at 10, tell her to open the shutters and the window for the police know this was an abduction. I wouldn't like you to be accused of killing your own daughter and to conceal her body. I'm not alone, you're spotted, so you better do as I said. Would Mr McCann have had to be an excellent actor or just a loving father ?
If Madeleine could have been taken as a replacement for another child (is that such a wild suggestion? McCanns seem to hope she is with a family) then presumably police will have looked at records for deceased girls of Madeleine's age in the locality.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 04:33:24 PM
To get back to Dave's opening post, I don't see how one can possibly quantify the statistics of abduction as such a thing is so rare.
I do however believe it was more likely that she just walked out the front door and was then abducted.
to get back on topic...the chances of Maddie being abducted when she was put to bed were extremely rare...the chances of her BEING abducted now she is missing are relatively high
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on December 31, 2013, 04:34:48 PM
to get back on topic...the chances of Maddie being abducted when she was put to bed were extremely rare...the chances of her BEING abducted now she is missing are relatively high
You mean theres a chance she will be abducted again. She is one seriously unlucky girl.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on December 31, 2013, 04:35:46 PM
If Madeleine could have been taken as a replacement for another child (is that such a wild suggestion? McCanns seem to hope she is with a family) then presumably police will have looked at records for deceased girls of Madeleine's age in the locality.
They probabiy did as they looked at records of people dyng in 5a to account for the dog indications....and found none....the PJ have had a lot of flack from people who have had no idea what they actually did n all that time....alot more than what was recorded too.this turned iut toe the bggest and most expensive manhunt in their history.....what they did was overlooked and ignored....the way they have been villified is just short of criminal IMO
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 04:36:47 PM
to get back on topic...the chances of Maddie being abducted when she was put to bed were extremely rare...the chances of her BEING abducted now she is missing are relatively high
No, still extremely low....
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 04:38:37 PM
to get back on topic...the chances of Maddie being abducted when she was put to bed were extremely rare...the chances of her BEING abducted now she is missing are relatively high
Are you on the sauce Dave? 8-)(--)
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 04:42:20 PM
Its an extremely low possibility pre event but not post event...do you follow
When you factor in the current stongest lead being a 60-80% man heading towards the ocean with an inert child in his arms I'd say it's aproximateley 60-80% more likely she suffered an entireley different fate to abduction.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 04:54:47 PM
Is that a celestial teapot? Since when did stats change pre and post abduction?
@)(++(*
Of course they change...statistics are about predicting the possibility of an event based on the available facts..post abduction certain facts have changed dramatically..its simple logic really
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Lyall on December 31, 2013, 04:56:40 PM
Of course they change...statistics are about predicting the possibility of an event based on the available facts..post abduction certain facts have changed dramatically..its simple logic really
Some of those facts are still changing 8)-)))
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on December 31, 2013, 04:57:41 PM
Of course they change...statistics are about predicting the possibility of an event based on the available facts..post abduction certain facts have changed dramatically..its simple logic really
Its certainly true that attempts have been made to change certain facts.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Angelo222 on December 31, 2013, 04:59:17 PM
To attain those percentages you have to believe that the shutter and the window were found open. There is no evidence to support this which renders the entire proposition suspicous.
Dave, you would have been better asking the question as to statistically speaking what was the chance of something befalling the children given their parents conduct.
In that case I would definitely agree to 90%.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 04:59:53 PM
My neighbours buy a lottery ticket...chances of winning 14 million to one
Next week there are a fleet of luxury cars on the drive and they are spending large amounts of money...what are the odds that they have won the lottery....odds change pre and post event....
You discount abduction because you are considering the pre event odds
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on December 31, 2013, 05:00:25 PM
Of course they change...statistics are about predicting the possibility of an event based on the available facts..post abduction certain facts have changed dramatically..its simple logic really
Er no statistics based in facts are about events that have happened not predictions......doh
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 05:01:44 PM
To attain those percentages you have to believe that the shutter and the window were found open. There is no evidence to support this which renders the entire proposition suspicous.
Dave, you would have been better asking the question as to statistically speaking what was the chance of something befalling the children given their parents conduct.
In that case I would definitely agree to 90%.
Still very remote...Whatever happened to Maddie was a very remote possibility...pre event of course
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 05:03:05 PM
I do however believe it was more likely that she just walked out the front door and was then abducted.
The probability she walked out and was killed by a car is higher, unless you believe she was frightened by someone who was frightened by her because of all the trivial fuss over paedophilia (see Mr O'Brien's rog about the guy who didn't dare to videotape his daughter !)
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 05:06:50 PM
The probability she walked out and was killed by a car is higher, unless you believe she was frightened by someone who was frightened by her because of all the trivial fuss over paedophilia (see Mr O'Brien's rog about the guy who didn't dare to videotape his daughter !)
On what do you base your assumption....I would say its almost certainly totally wrong
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on December 31, 2013, 05:09:19 PM
Nope its codswallop....and no amount of you self preening yourself on here as some kind of genius amongst plebs will change anythng..well, least of all cos the opposite is true
8((()*/
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 05:10:08 PM
Nope its codswallop....and no amount of you self preening yourself on here as some kind of genius amongst plebs will change anythng..well, least of all cos the opposite is true
8((()*/
Genius amongst plebs...what a strange statement...what would Freud have made of that
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on December 31, 2013, 05:12:22 PM
Now you are asking proper questions rather than being silly...much better
Have a think about the lottery tickets
I prefer straight talk and honesty....rather than game playing semantics and cryptics......not getting it from you though oh well, zzzzzz your credibility is shot to bits on this forum......youre not a straight player....sad really
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on December 31, 2013, 05:16:02 PM
Genius amongst plebs...what a strange statement...what would Freud have made of that
Freud was an idiot, thoroughly discredited now...pleas dont read his books for yur own sanity
8((()*/
and yes, yu are not any kind of genius its obvious to those WITH a modocum of ntellect that that is true..... and the majority of the posters n this board are not mndless fools plebs unintelligent etc etc the way you have disgracefully called half of them for months now...an apology might be in order
@)(++(*
And pigs WILL fly
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 05:18:04 PM
Freud was an idiot, thoroughly discredited now...pleas dont read his books for yur own sanity
8((()*/
and yes, yu are not any kind of genius its obvious to those WITH a modocum of ntellect that that is true..... and the majority of the posters n this board are not mndless fools plebs unintelligent etc etc the way you have disgracefully called half of them for months now...an apology might be in order
@)(++(*
And pigs WILL fly
Freud was an idiot...I don't think so...you are getting hysterical as Freud would say...accepted we have moved on but I was thinking more of a Freudian type slip....
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on December 31, 2013, 05:27:14 PM
Freud was an idiot...I don't think so...you are getting hysterical as Freud would say...accepted we have moved on but I was thinking more of a Freudian type slip....
Yes we know freud was a misogynist and there was no freudian slip...you are certainly no genius by any stretch of the imagnation, and half the posters or more on this board are certainly not less "intelligent" than YOU..the fact yu have had to carp n and on about how sub ntellectual people are day n day out certainly says more abut you and yur thorouly "brass neck"
8((()*/
enjoy your nit picking callingblack whte obfuscating avoiding and spinning and and whatever else you do daily to prove yourself "right" all the time LOL
bbl 8((()*/
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 05:31:15 PM
So.... When maddie was out to bed that night...the odds of her being abducted were incredibly low.. Now she is missing...if we look at all the possibilities as to why she is missing...the possibility of abduction is relatively high... I would guess at 90%
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on December 31, 2013, 05:34:11 PM
You use percentages to measure probability, not possibility.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on December 31, 2013, 05:36:44 PM
In Portugal if a child disappears it appears there is no immediate media public campaign to draw attention to that fact - as there would be in other countries. IMO that lack of publicity would be seen as a massive advantage to would-be abductor(s).
What's your source for that, Benice ? http://viladalongra.blogspot.pt/2008/06/beb-raptado-da-maternidade-de-penafiel.html This baby was taken from his crib under his mum's eyes by a false nurse, but the PJ found it quickly.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 01, 2014, 04:46:15 AM
Having said all that, parental involvement in the child's death or disappearance - a much more likely scenario in terms of statistics in the abstract - in this particular case, would entail the parents' guilt of other major crimes (perverting the course of justice in several countries; serious fraud, to name but two) as well.
Is it the parental involvement that would entail those other crimes or is it the insistence in proclaiming abduction from bed, unprecedented event that the media echo chamber multiplied, ruining any human control ? An accidental homicide would be far more plausible than an abduction from bed or even from street, but there's a rub, it would mean that the McCanns didn't say the truth and the idea that such a beautiful couple of doctors could have lied is unbearable, so unbearable that... it can't be. Any explanation will do, but the lie is taboo. Denying reality.. such a common process though. We know nevertheless that, without real motive, the McCanns didn't say the truth to the media which they criticized for... their lies.. Really revealing, Mrs McCann tells in "Madeleine" that they lied as if the fact of revealing it launched her on the track of truth (fault confessed is half redressed). Revealing that she lied deleted the lie and purified her. There no other reason for this confession.
Allow me to correct you, SH, the Ecclesiast, not David, said there is nothing new under the sun. He said he was David's son but it doesn't seem he was Solomon.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: colombosstogey on January 01, 2014, 06:55:20 AM
They probabiy did as they looked at records of people dyng in 5a to account for the dog indications....and found none....the PJ have had a lot of flack from people who have had no idea what they actually did n all that time....alot more than what was recorded too.this turned iut toe the bggest and most expensive manhunt in their history.....what they did was overlooked and ignored....the way they have been villified is just short of criminal IMO
The fact that it has taken Scotland Yard TWO YEARS to trawl through all the paperwork from the PJ would show to me that the PJ were more then thorough in their investigations.
And what has SY come up with NOTHING.....
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Victoria on January 01, 2014, 10:59:20 AM
The fact that it has taken Scotland Yard TWO YEARS to trawl through all the paperwork from the PJ would show to me that the PJ were more then thorough in their investigations.
And what has SY come up with NOTHING.....
Unfortunately, it often takes longer to unravel a mess than it does to make one.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 01, 2014, 11:07:47 AM
Unfortunately, it often takes longer to unravel a mess than it does to make one.
There is also all the stuff that the various private detective agencies produced - though it's likely of little value, it will all need to be reviewed.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 01, 2014, 11:54:33 AM
The fact that it has taken Scotland Yard TWO YEARS to trawl through all the paperwork from the PJ would show to me that the PJ were more then thorough in their investigations.
And what has SY come up with NOTHING.....
that's right 2 years....and they don't seem to have found ANYTHING to implicate the parents
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 01, 2014, 12:05:13 PM
Nor indeed, anybody else.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 01, 2014, 12:27:33 PM
Completely insane, no, loving parents in a tricky situation as Anne explained, not wanting to cause a life of guilt for their children. I can go with that, it's more tasteful than Proffessor plum in the drawingroom with the lead pipe.
Kate did claim to know what happened, happened under circumstances other than the children being asleep.
This post doesn't make sense and should be deleted as was mine to which it reacted. The number of posts deleted the last day of 2013 is impressive ! I must thank Davel for pointing to this (even if his intention was mocking).
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pegasus on January 01, 2014, 01:38:31 PM
Assuming hypothetically that the abduction theory is correct, and that the abductor entered through the window, it is statistically likely that the noise of the shutter being raised from outside would wake someone in the room. And therefore it is statistically likely that after climbing in, the hypothetical abductor would need to follow into another room, and so the hypothetical abduction would statistically be more likely to be from that other room, not from the north bedroom. All IMO
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Lyall on January 01, 2014, 01:57:07 PM
The persistent attempts by Anne Guedes to raise the intellectual tone of this Forum are boring, and a complete waste of time and band width. And more often than not her comments bear no relation to the thread in question.
If I posted such spurious twaddle I would have been warned far more often than I already have. Anne Guedes however, remains unscathed.
Humour, Eleanor, that's the point you're missing. Happy New Year ?{)(**
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 01, 2014, 02:08:04 PM
Interesting how people can interpret the meaning of posts differently.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 01, 2014, 02:11:47 PM
How ironic that your post should bear no relation to this thread topic.
My post was on topic as related to so many of the posts by Anne Guedes being off topic.
Stating that people are going off topic is not off topic.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pegasus on January 01, 2014, 03:14:17 PM
There are no parallel universes, one of these is 100% statistically correct: "There was an abduction" "There wasn't an abduction" In the abduction scenario, is it confined entirely to the one room , or is also included the lounge and other room?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 01, 2014, 03:26:48 PM
There are no parallel universes, one of these is 100% statistically correct: "There was an abduction" "There wasn't an abduction" In the abduction scenario, is it confined entirely to the one room , or is also included the lounge and other room?
Quite right, though in the absence of hard evidence, either option is equally valid.
As there seems to be no forensics to point to the presence of an intruder, one cannot exclude the possibility of one being anywhere within the apartment.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pegasus on January 01, 2014, 03:52:36 PM
Quite right, though in the absence of hard evidence, either option is equally valid.
As there seems to be no forensics to point to the presence of an intruder, one cannot exclude the possibility of one being anywhere within the apartment.
I see the two "sides" as one. One investigator starting with "abduction", another starting with "non-abduction", if they are truly proficient and seek the truth, will both reach the single statistically true solution. For both those investigators a shared and important question is: which room(s)? All IMO.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 01, 2014, 04:51:04 PM
stats, its extremely rare........MOST abused and or abducted kids are at the hands of family and or family friends.......so no, not 50 50 she was abducted...more like 95/5
bbl
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on January 01, 2014, 05:14:34 PM
Let's all keep calm please.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Eleanor on January 01, 2014, 05:21:23 PM
Sorry, John. Just a bit pissed off with it all. And the last thing I need is a lesson in the Classics. We aren't all stupid, which is what Anne Guedes implies.
I shall now desist, and bog off somewhere else. My serious posts are always treated with contempt anyway.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on January 01, 2014, 05:35:38 PM
I agree Eleanor that too many posts are straying from the topic under discussion recently so I have asked the moderators to clamp down on such violations. It is hard enough for new readers to follow discussions without having them diverted mid thread.
Members can start a new topic at any time if they feel an issue is worth pursuing.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 01, 2014, 05:40:56 PM
Is it the parental involvement that would entail those other crimes or is it the insistence in proclaiming abduction from bed, unprecedented event that the media echo chamber multiplied, ruining any human control ? An accidental homicide would be far more plausible than an abduction from bed or even from street, but there's a rub, it would mean that the McCanns didn't say the truth and the idea that such a beautiful couple of doctors could have lied is unbearable, so unbearable that... it can't be. Any explanation will do, but the lie is taboo. Denying reality.. such a common process though. We know nevertheless that, without real motive, the McCanns didn't say the truth to the media which they criticized for... their lies.. Really revealing, Mrs McCann tells in "Madeleine" that they lied as if the fact of revealing it launched her on the track of truth (fault confessed is half redressed). Revealing that she lied deleted the lie and purified her. There no other reason for this confession.
Allow me to correct you, SH, the Ecclesiast, not David, said there is nothing new under the sun. He said he was David's son but it doesn't seem he was Solomon.
I'm not sure if we can attribute the scale of the Find Madeleine campaign merely to the fact that modern technology assists it. It didn't just snowball of its own accord (though obviously the tabloids have their own reasons for continuing to promote the case). In the main it has been driven by the McCanns. Without their persistence the case may well have been forgotten a long time ago.
My suggestion is that it would take a very sick person to drive such a huge campaign if they were guilty of something. And there's just no evidence that the McCanns have such problems.
Yes it was indeed the Ecclesiast (Kohelet) not King David. Thanks for the correction!
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 01, 2014, 05:43:05 PM
I'm not sure if we can attribute the scale of the Find Madeleine campaign merely to the fact that modern technology assists it. It didn't just snowball of its own accord (though obviously the tabloids have their own reasons for continuing to promote the case). In the main it has been driven by the McCanns. Without their persistence the case may well have been forgotten a long time ago.
My suggestion is that it would take a very sick person to drive such a huge campaign if they were guilty of something. And there's just no evidence that the McCanns have such problems.
Yes it was indeed the Ecclesiast (Kohelet) not King David. Thanks for the correction!
Or desperate.....or driven into a corner.....or unable to get off the tiger they unleashed....
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 01, 2014, 05:47:01 PM
Or desperate.....or driven into a corner.....or unable to get off the tiger they unleashed....
Yes, that would be very difficult.
But if you're saying that the media campaign is a tiger rather than the McCanns themselves (even if they unleashed it) are you saying it's not a deliberate cover-up?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 01, 2014, 05:47:22 PM
The fact that it has taken Scotland Yard TWO YEARS to trawl through all the paperwork from the PJ would show to me that the PJ were more then thorough in their investigations.
And what has SY come up with NOTHING.....
Just two thirds in two years.....and to date cost just over 6m quid......and as you say nothng yet..still.....you never know whats round the corner
8((()*/
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 01, 2014, 05:51:32 PM
But if you're saying that the media campaign is a tiger rather than the McCanns themselves (even if they unleashed it) are you saying it's not a deliberate cover-up?
I dont know what it is but I know what I think.....and the Mccanns dont come out all innocent and rosy.......their whole performance actions behaviour and words is bizarre at best.....I dont trust them I dont believe them......they are as dodgy as hell IMO
Evasive duo...also vexatious litigants.....not consistent with normal parents of a missing child plus their accounts are dodgy plus they have told half truths and untruths all along.....plus they have railroaded other peoples lives and accused innocents of possibly being inolved.....plus they have blamed the whole world and its wife for madeleines demise.....
Edited
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 01, 2014, 05:59:31 PM
I dont know what it is but I know what I think.....and the Mccanns dont come out all innocent and rosy.......their whole performance actions behaviour and words is bizarre at best.....I dont trust them I dont believe them......they are as dodgy as hell IMO
Evasive duo...also vexatious litigants.....not consistent with normal parents of a missing child
I agree with you very much that they have said and done a lot of things that are odd. Ill-advised and not their fault some of them, but odd nonetheless.
As you know I am more than willing to criticise the McCanns for this aspect of their actions, as I don't believe they are doing themselves any favours by handling some things in the way they do. But being odd in itself is not a crime, nor evidence of one.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Eleanor on January 01, 2014, 06:02:06 PM
I dont know what it is but I know what I think.....and the Mccanns dont come out all innocent and rosy.......their whole performance actions behaviour and words is bizarre at best.....I dont trust them I dont believe them......they are as dodgy as hell IMO
Evasive duo...also vexatious litigants.....not consistent with normal parents of a missing child plus their accounts are dodgy plus thy have told half truths and untruths all along.....
This is such a distortion of the facts that I don't know how you have got the brass neck to be so spiteful and misleading.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Victoria on January 01, 2014, 06:02:48 PM
I agree with you very much that they have said and done a lot of things that are odd. Ill-advised and not their fault some of them, but odd nonetheless.
As you know I am more than willing to criticise the McCanns for this aspect of their actions, as I don't believe they are doing themselves any favours by handling some things in the way they do. But being odd in itself is not a crime, nor evidence of one.
I would say there is a lot more 'abnormal' behaviour displayed by those who spend their lives obsessing over the McCanns than there is by the McCanns. By a long, long way.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 01, 2014, 06:07:59 PM
I agree with you very much that they have said and done a lot of things that are odd. Ill-advised and not their fault some of them, but odd nonetheless.
As you know I am more than willing to criticise the McCanns for this aspect of their actions, as I don't believe they are doing themselves any favours by handling some things in the way they do. But being odd in itself is not a crime, nor evidence of one.
But you cant know what was advised and what wasnt and whether they took said advice......and whch parts of their performances were theirs or advised ones!
Yes being odd is not a crime neither is being unbeleivable...but this is not a court of law.....I dont believe them, I dont trust them, they just dont elicit that at all...and tbh before reading kate mccanns book released in 2011 i was willing to give them benefit of the doubt but that piece of nonsense gelled my intuitions....hw ungrateful she was to so many people and how she stuck the knife in so many.....horrible woman! She also told a few porkies in it, oops
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 01, 2014, 06:10:13 PM
But if you're saying that the media campaign is a tiger rather than the McCanns themselves (even if they unleashed it) are you saying it's not a deliberate cover-up?
The first obvious untruth concerning what happened to Madeleine was the forced shutter/window told to family and friends, there's no doubt about that. I'm pretty sure it was a private cover-up, the people who count for them had to see them as victims. I don't think they were aware to start a global cover-up. Unfortunately the family and friends were so convinced (and I would have been) that Madeleine had been abducted and so frustrated because they couldn't act that they alerted the media repeating the story of the jemmied/smashed/broken shutter/window, a story that left absolutely no doubt about Madeleine's fate. This is how started a rumour in which the McCanns were caught before they could realise what happened. They could have denied it tough, but they didn't, the private cover-up was gaining worldly dimensions by proxy, too good! With a bit of imagination they would have understood that they were passing the point of no-return.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 01, 2014, 06:20:45 PM
But you cant know what was advised and what wasnt and whether they took said advice......and whch parts of their performances were theirs or advised ones!
Will chew on that point 8-)(--)
But let's say the libel trials for example. The McCanns surely instructed lawyers to pursue these cases. It doesn't go the other way around.
Can't imagine anyone advising them to take on their recent case with Amaral. It has been so badly prepared by their legal team. Ironic given the vast expense of Carter-Ruck and others.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Eleanor on January 01, 2014, 06:24:52 PM
But let's say the libel trials for example. The McCanns surely instructed lawyers to pursue these cases. It doesn't go the other way around.
Can't imagine anyone advising them to take on their recent case with Amaral. It has been so badly prepared by their legal team. Ironic given the vast expense of Carter-Ruck and others.
You won't know that until the verdict.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 01, 2014, 06:26:21 PM
But let's say the libel trials for example. The McCanns surely instructed lawyers to pursue these cases. It doesn't go the other way around.
Can't imagine anyone advising them to take on their recent case with Amaral. It has been so badly prepared by their legal team. Ironic given the vast expense of Carter-Ruck and others.
I don't see that they had any choice but to persue Amaral for libel...we have a multitude of posters here claiming that things must be true if they don't sue...look at the times article...I don't see its been badly prepared...it seems more like the peculiarities of the Portuguese legal system thats the problem
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 01, 2014, 06:27:39 PM
Redblossom raises a good point regarding the question of what the McCanns are in control of and not in control of vis-a-vis the campaing.
Perhaps a new thread topic.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 01, 2014, 06:28:50 PM
I don't see that they had any choice but to persue Amaral for libel...we have a multitude of posters here claiming that things must be true if they don't sue...look at the times article...I don't see its been badly prepared...it seems more like the peculiarities of the Portuguese legal system thats the problem
Interesting observation, davel. Let's start a new thread.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 01, 2014, 06:30:13 PM
I dont know what it is but I know what I think.....and the Mccanns dont come out all innocent and rosy.......their whole performance actions behaviour and words is bizarre at best.....I dont trust them I dont believe them......they are as dodgy as hell IMO
Evasive duo...also vexatious litigants.....not consistent with normal parents of a missing child plus their accounts are dodgy plus they have told half truths and untruths all along.....plus they have railroaded other peoples lives and accused innocents of possibly being inolved.....plus they have blamed the whole world and its wife for madeleines demise.....
Edited
None of this has any basis apart from being your opinion.....I don't see any of it as true and neither do the half a million likes on their facebook page
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 01, 2014, 06:32:48 PM
I don't see that they had any choice but to persue Amaral for libel...we have a multitude of posters here claiming that things must be true if they don't sue...look at the times article...I don't see its been badly prepared...it seems more like the peculiarities of the Portuguese legal system thats the problem
Just because the Portuguese legal system is different, it doesn't make it peculiar - or is that an excuse in case the decision goes against them?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 01, 2014, 06:33:49 PM
My suggestion is that it would take a very sick person to drive such a huge campaign if they were guilty of something.
Certainly, if "sick" means a disturbed mind. But disturbed minds don't orchestrate campaigns unless they have all powers. The McCanns don't fit in here. Actually who sees them first doesn't notice them and then finds them quite modest, very different of what they are in interviews. They have learnt how to behave in front of cameras and they obviously like it, not because they enjoy their celebrity, but because they have an opportunity to enact verbally their story. Imo.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 01, 2014, 06:37:40 PM
stats, its extremely rare........MOST abused and or abducted kids are at the hands of family and or family friends.......so no, not 50 50 she was abducted...more like 95/5
bbl
This is a much abused statistic,,,adults who harm children are rarely the biological parents...have alcohol/drug issues...are in abusive relationships and so on....The McCanns do not fit this profile
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 01, 2014, 06:38:01 PM
Certainly, if "sick" means a disturbed mind. But disturbed minds don't orchestrate campaigns unless they have all powers. The McCanns don't fit in here. Actually who sees them first doesn't notice them and then finds them quite modest, very different of what they are in interviews. They have learnt how to behave in front of cameras and they obviously like it, not because they enjoy their celebrity, but because they have an opportunity to enact verbally their story. Imo.
Interesting point Anne. I will ask the higher-ups to move it onto the new thread. (Though mercifully John appears to be quite busy at the moment!)
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 01, 2014, 06:41:49 PM
Certainly, if "sick" means a disturbed mind. But disturbed minds don't orchestrate campaigns unless they have all powers. The McCanns don't fit in here. Actually who sees them first doesn't notice them and then finds them quite modest, very different of what they are in interviews. They have learnt how to behave in front of cameras and they obviously like it, not because they enjoy their celebrity, but because they have an opportunity to enact verbally their story. Imo.
I think you have everything back to front...they have learnt to behave in front of a camera because they want to find out what has happened to their daughter
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Eleanor on January 01, 2014, 06:52:30 PM
True... but we already saw their very weak choice of witnesses, for example. Didn't seem to advance their arguments much.
those who seemed to understand what is going on have said that much of the evidence has already been submitted to the judge. Amarals witnesses were very poor from what I read of the reports
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 01, 2014, 07:30:25 PM
This is a much abused statistic,,,adults who harm children are rarely the biological parents...have alcohol/drug issues...are in abusive relationships and so on....The McCanns do not fit this profile
Tosh
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 01, 2014, 07:31:31 PM
those who seemed to understand what is going on have said that much of the evidence has already been submitted to the judge. Amarals witnesses were very poor from what I read of the reports
Youre in for a massive shock by the looks...oh well........
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 01, 2014, 07:38:11 PM
you really haven't a clue re statistics of harm by family...no wonder all your conclusions are so far out
Post them then.......all statistics say strangers are in the minute mnority...you cant change facts much as you would like to....its you who is back to front
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 01, 2014, 07:50:37 PM
Post them then.......all statistics say strangers are in the minute mnority...you cant change facts much as you would like to....its you who is back to front
the reason children are rarely harmed by strangers is that they are normally under the protection of their loving family. When the family is not loving...moms new boyfriend is abusive and takes heroin then this is where most of the harm occurs. If a child is not under the care of their family...asleep in a holiday appt....then the chances of harm from a stranger is far greater
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 01, 2014, 08:18:43 PM
the reason children are rarely harmed by strangers is that they are normally under the protection of their loving family. When the family is not loving...moms new boyfriend is abusive and takes heroin then this is where most of the harm occurs. If a child is not under the care of their family...asleep in a holiday appt....then the chances of harm from a stranger is far greater
most harm is from family and family friends and not strangers..yu got it back to front.......again
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 01, 2014, 08:22:29 PM
Most harm is from a small group of dysfunctional families and friends..
No not a small group 90 per cent plus of all abuse and or kidnap victims......so hot small, but a MAJORITY ie parents family and or family friends...fact
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 01, 2014, 08:29:03 PM
And all of Amaral's witnesses bar one were personal friends. Which The Judge made a point of establishing.
But this is all beside the point. Proving Distress and proving Bias of Witnesses are two different things.
And who would you expect The McCanns to call to prove their distress?
Or perhaps more to the point, who would you expect Amaral to call?
It is a libel case, it has nothing to do with distress. The McCanns have to prove that what Mr Amaral published in his book was untruthful and damaged their reputations. I have seen and heard nothing from any McCann witness which could in any way support this claim.
If Madeleine was found alive and well tomorrow he would be screwed but as it is his theory is no more or no less valid than the McCanns is.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 01, 2014, 09:04:26 PM
It is a libel case, it has nothing to do with distress. The McCanns have to prove that what Mr Amaral published in his book was untruthful and damaged their reputations. I have seen and heard nothing from any McCann witness which could in any way support this claim.
If Madeleine was found alive and well tomorrow he would be screwed but as it is his theory is no more or no less valid than the McCanns is.
angelo...are you trying to derail this thread by posting off topic
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 01, 2014, 09:09:12 PM
angelo...are you trying to derail this thread by posting off topic
No thats what you do all the time.......to deflect from truths....and save your own sorry backside when busted.....no.need to attack angelo now desperado! Tara chuck!!!
?>)()<
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 01, 2014, 09:23:27 PM
No thats what you do all the time.......to deflect from truths....and save your own sorry backside when busted.....no.need to attack angelo now desperado! Tara chuck!!!
?>)()<
It was meant to be ironic and Im sure angelo realised
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Eleanor on January 02, 2014, 01:42:28 AM
It is a libel case, it has nothing to do with distress. The McCanns have to prove that what Mr Amaral published in his book was untruthful and damaged their reputations. I have seen and heard nothing from any McCann witness which could in any way support this claim.
If Madeleine was found alive and well tomorrow he would be screwed but as it is his theory is no more or no less valid than the McCanns is.
Distress caused to The McCanns is part of the claim.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 02, 2014, 01:49:45 AM
It is a libel case, it has nothing to do with distress. The McCanns have to prove that what Mr Amaral published in his book was untruthful and damaged their reputations. I have seen and heard nothing from any McCann witness which could in any way support this claim.
If Madeleine was found alive and well tomorrow he would be screwed but as it is his theory is no more or no less valid than the McCanns is.
It is definitely a libel case then? It's just that some posters, like Luz, keep telling us it isn't a libel case and it's hard to keep track. So much misinformation and lies can be spread, even on these boards.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 02, 2014, 12:27:47 PM
Stranger abduction is indeed exceptionally rare. As we know, the vast majority of abductions involve custody and other family disputes, or someone close to the family.
Anne Guedes, in my opinion, makes an important point when she asks if there has ever been a case of abduction from bed on the European continent. As far as I have managed to find out - and Anne has also put the question to the forum many times - there appear to be no recorded instances.
I have found half a dozen or so relatively recent American cases of abduction from bed (or from the private quarters of homes during the night). Still no European examples however.
So it is fair to say that if we speak of abduction from 5A, we are speaking about something incredibly rare indeed; possibly about something that has never before happened in Europe.
And if we are talking about abduction in the sense of Madeleine having wandered into the street and falling prey to someone who 'got lucky', that is obviously a highly unusual situation too.
Having said all that, parental involvement in the child's death or disappearance - a much more likely scenario in terms of statistics in the abstract - in this particular case, would entail the parents' guilt of other major crimes (perverting the course of justice in several countries; serious fraud, to name but two) as well.
Rare as abduction may be, one is phenomenally hard pressed to find any case of murder/serious harm to a person that involves not only the degree but the combination of different types of corruption, criminality, and deception - and the psychopathic tendencies to go with - that would be implied in accusing the McCanns of harming or concealing their daughter.
If the McCanns were guilty of all these things - because if guilty of one, they are guilty of all - the case would be a world first in its scale and scope. Can anyone find a precedent or statistics for a crime like that? I suggest there are none. In the words of King David, 'there is nothing new under the sun', and on that basis I find the likelihood of the McCanns being guilty to be almost nil.
I also note that despite the rarity of abduction from bed, there have been many abduction and missing person cases in the Iberian Peninsula and other parts of the Mediterranean in recent years, and I believe that it is within that context that we ought to be considering Madeleine's disappearance.
This cultural approach was brought home to me whilst reading some of the theories of 'profiler' Pat Brown. Her almost totally US-centric (and therefore frequently factually incorrect) vision of just about every aspect - linguistic, cultural, legal, geographic - of this case was a powerful demonstration to me that looking at life on the ground and understanding the cultural context of an event is crucial.
This all leads in the direction of the many strange people witnessed to be in the vicinity of 5A in the days prior to Madeleine's disappearance, with the knowledge in mind that there are numerous individuals and groups in the area and all around Europe who are known to be preying on youngsters for all kinds of reasons. Then there is the geographical position of Portugal itself: part of mainland Europe both legally and physically, and in close proximity also to Africa and the rest of the Mediterranean. This broadening of geographic possibilities increases vastly the number of possible predators and motives, and therefore magnifies the statistical likelihood that Madeleine could have found her way into the hands of an unsavoury person or been passed along a chain.
Apologies for the long-windedness of the answer and the dearth of percentages. Bottom line, as unlikely as it may be in the wider scheme of things, I believe abduction here to be a much more than likely scenario in comparison to the other options.
I agree. A few thoughts...
I don't, however, understand why the seeming lack of stories of abductions from bed in continental Europe is an issue, beyond contributing to a perception of rarity.
- Newborns do get abducted from hospitals by strangers, apparently generally by women desperate for a child. Therefore, the issue isn't just about a "bed", but an older child taken from a bed.
- Why the criterion of a bed, specifically? Would it have made a difference if she'd got up to go to the loo and was actually standing and about to holler?
- Kate mentioned several cases of strangers in children's bedrooms in Portugal and Redwood mentioned a case (whether that was one of the cases or a different one). None of those children appear to have been abducted, but circumstances may have prevented that happening.
Those harrowing stories weren't reported by the press. Which police force would have been responsible for investigating? If it wasn't the PJ, it would have been the GNR or PSP, dealing with minor crimes. Were the cases thoroughly investigated at the time? Without a criminal investigation, would there have been any forensic sweep to attempt to identify the perpetrators? If a child had "simply" been traumatised by a stranger, would that be sufficient to bring in the PJ? Or would it have been a strange detail in the break-in category? If some of the children had suffered a sexual assault, I can't imagine that the families would launch a publicity campaign, for privacy reasons and the fact that their children - at the end of the day - weren't missing or killed. Unless the police launched a public appeal, or leaked to the press, how would the mainstream press even know about them? Did any of these cases come to trial?
- There is the case of Caroline Dickinson who was raped and murdered in her bed in a youth hostel dorm. She wasn't abducted, and what happened to the poor girl is a thankfully rare occurrence, but it nonetheless did take place. That creep took a huge risk. If she'd been younger (and lighter), who knows if he might have disposed of the body? (As it happens, I disagree that a dog's alert represents a reliable indicator that Madeleine died in that apartment, if indeed she is dead.)
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 02, 2014, 01:31:48 PM
An abduction from a holiday apartment does seem to be a rare occurrence.
I agree that:
- some cases of physical and/or sexual abuse leading to death are disguised as an apparent abduction. How many of these have taken place on a holiday in a foreign country with a group of friends?
- there are cases of children being murdered, often followed by suicide, due to custody disputes. I have found nothing to suggest that there was any kind of custody dispute in this case.
- I've also found a few cases of seemingly normal couples in which one member suddenly flipped an emotional fuse and became violent to the point of causing death. I have found nothing to substantiate anything in that regard in this case.
On the other hand:
- why would a stranger abduction be less plausible than a family going on a group holiday in which several members of the group would have had to cover for each other on even an accidental death and concealment?
Would an accidental death during their absence in between 1/2 hour checks have seriously got them struck off the medical register and thus justify collusion? The only statement that there may have been a much longer period of time between a check on one night was from the elderly Mrs Fenn. But that wasn't corroborated.
- how would any one of them have disposed of her within such a short timeframe without anyone finding her? Where? When? How?
What experience did the local PJ actually have of such cases?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 02, 2014, 01:42:55 PM
An abduction from a holiday apartment does seem to be a rare occurrence.
I agree that:
- some cases of physical and/or sexual abuse leading to death are disguised as an apparent abduction. How many of these have taken place on a holiday in a foreign country with a group of friends?
- there are cases of children being murdered, often followed by suicide, due to custody disputes. I have found nothing to suggest that there was any kind of custody dispute in this case.
- I've also found a few cases of seemingly normal couples in which one member suddenly flipped an emotional fuse and became violent to the point of causing death. I have found nothing to substantiate anything in that regard in this case.
On the other hand:
- why would a stranger abduction be less plausible than a family going on a group holiday in which several members of the group would have had to cover for each other on even an accidental death and concealment?
Would an accidental death during their absence in between 1/2 hour checks have seriously got them struck off the medical register and thus justify collusion? The only statement that there may have been a much longer period of time between a check on one night was from the elderly Mrs Fenn. But that wasn't corroborated.
- how would any one of them have disposed of her within such a short timeframe without anyone finding her? Where? When? How?
What experience did the local PJ actually have of such cases?
'The only statement that there may have been a much longer period of time between a check on one night was from the elderly Mrs Fenn. But that wasn't corroborated.'
It would appear the AG had faith in Mrs Fenn's account.
"Pamela Fenn, who resides on the residential block's first floor, above the apartment that was occupied by the McCann family, clarified that on the 1st of May 2007, two days before her disappearance, at around 10.30 p.m., she heard a child crying, which from the sound would be MADELEINE and that she cried for an hour and fifteen minutes, until her parents arrived, at around 11.57 p.m.
This shows that the parents were not persistently worried about their children [and] that they didn't check on them like they afterwards declared they did, rather neglecting their duty to guard those same children, although not in a temerarious, or gross, manner." http://www.mccannfiles.com/id136.html#adi9
"how would any one of them have disposed of her within such a short timeframe without anyone finding her? Where? When? How?"
In a large dumpster type bin.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 02, 2014, 02:18:29 PM
'The only statement that there may have been a much longer period of time between a check on one night was from the elderly Mrs Fenn. But that wasn't corroborated.'
It would appear the AG had faith in Mrs Fenn's account.
"Pamela Fenn, who resides on the residential block's first floor, above the apartment that was occupied by the McCann family, clarified that on the 1st of May 2007, two days before her disappearance, at around 10.30 p.m., she heard a child crying, which from the sound would be MADELEINE and that she cried for an hour and fifteen minutes, until her parents arrived, at around 11.57 p.m.
This shows that the parents were not persistently worried about their children [and] that they didn't check on them like they afterwards declared they did, rather neglecting their duty to guard those same children, although not in a temerarious, or gross, manner." http://www.mccannfiles.com/id136.html#adi9
"how would any one of them have disposed of her within such a short timeframe without anyone finding her? Where? When? How?"
In a large dumpster type bin.
That would seem plausible, whoever was responsible. But no body was found, was it? How thorough were the checks into dumpster bins at the time?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 02, 2014, 02:28:00 PM
'The only statement that there may have been a much longer period of time between a check on one night was from the elderly Mrs Fenn. But that wasn't corroborated.'
It would appear the AG had faith in Mrs Fenn's account.
"Pamela Fenn, who resides on the residential block's first floor, above the apartment that was occupied by the McCann family, clarified that on the 1st of May 2007, two days before her disappearance, at around 10.30 p.m., she heard a child crying, which from the sound would be MADELEINE and that she cried for an hour and fifteen minutes, until her parents arrived, at around 11.57 p.m.
This shows that the parents were not persistently worried about their children [and] that they didn't check on them like they afterwards declared they did, rather neglecting their duty to guard those same children, although not in a temerarious, or gross, manner." http://www.mccannfiles.com/id136.html#adi9
"how would any one of them have disposed of her within such a short timeframe without anyone finding her? Where? When? How?"
In a large dumpster type bin.
Have you found anything to indicate when she was first interviewed? All I can find is an interview months later. Wouldn't she have been an obvious person to interview in the early days?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 02, 2014, 02:32:30 PM
That would seem plausible, whoever was responsible. But no body was found, was it? How thorough were the checks into dumpster bins at the time?
I'm not actually sure but I think I remember Anne mentioning the rubbish collection times before. It could be that rubbish collections happened early hours. Maybe at the time the PJ believed Tannerman had taken her and so were looking for a living child in that direction & wouldn't have reason to search every bin in another direction.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 02, 2014, 02:55:58 PM
Have you found anything to indicate when she was first interviewed? All I can find is an interview months later. Wouldn't she have been an obvious person to interview in the early days?
No I don't know how much contact Mrs Fenn had with the police, but the AG obviously found good reason to trust her.
There is no doubt that mistakes were made by the PJ but is it any wonder when in the early days & beyond they were being overwhelmed with 'sightings' which have all come to nothing.
'No media' they asked. If this had been obeyed a more organised investigation could have taken place & who knows maybe Maddie would have been home in time for christmas.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 02, 2014, 02:56:18 PM
I'm not actually sure but I think I remember Anne mentioning the rubbish collection times before. It could be that rubbish collections happened early hours. Maybe at the time the PJ believed Tannerman had taken her and so were looking for a living child in that direction & wouldn't have reason to search every bin in another direction.
I have huge respect for those who took time off work or holidays to try find her in the early days. An amazing amount of people who tried to contribute to the search, and I think that they deserve applause, even if individuals wish to remain anonymous - they know who they were.
The fact is that no trace of her was found.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 02, 2014, 03:04:04 PM
No I don't know how much contact Mrs Fenn had with the police, but the AG obviously found good reason to trust her.
There is no doubt that mistakes were made by the PJ but is it any wonder when in the early days & beyond they were being overwhelmed with 'sightings' which have all come to nothing.
'No media' they asked. If this had been obeyed a more organised investigation could have taken place & who knows maybe Maddie would have been home in time for christmas.
A more organised investigation by whom? Who originally suggested "no media" The GNR or the PJ?
Then what... a provincial force with little experience of such cases?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 02, 2014, 03:08:06 PM
The PJ website promotes any distinguishing features of a missing person... so where does this allegation come from?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 02, 2014, 03:13:38 PM
I don't, however, understand why the seeming lack of stories of abductions from bed in continental Europe is an issue, beyond contributing to a perception of rarity.
- Newborns do get abducted from hospitals by strangers, apparently generally by women desperate for a child. Therefore, the issue isn't just about a "bed", but an older child taken from a bed.
- Why the criterion of a bed, specifically? Would it have made a difference if she'd got up to go to the loo and was actually standing and about to holler?
- Kate mentioned several cases of strangers in children's bedrooms in Portugal and Redwood mentioned a case (whether that was one of the cases or a different one). None of those children appear to have been abducted, but circumstances may have prevented that happening.
Those harrowing stories weren't reported by the press. Which police force would have been responsible for investigating? If it wasn't the PJ, it would have been the GNR or PSP, dealing with minor crimes. Were the cases thoroughly investigated at the time? Without a criminal investigation, would there have been any forensic sweep to attempt to identify the perpetrators? If a child had "simply" been traumatised by a stranger, would that be sufficient to bring in the PJ? Or would it have been a strange detail in the break-in category? If some of the children had suffered a sexual assault, I can't imagine that the families would launch a publicity campaign, for privacy reasons and the fact that their children - at the end of the day - weren't missing or killed. Unless the police launched a public appeal, or leaked to the press, how would the mainstream press even know about them? Did any of these cases come to trial?
- There is the case of Caroline Dickinson who was raped and murdered in her bed in a youth hostel dorm. She wasn't abducted, and what happened to the poor girl is a thankfully rare occurrence, but it nonetheless did take place. That creep took a huge risk. If she'd been younger (and lighter), who knows if he might have disposed of the body? (As it happens, I disagree that a dog's alert represents a reliable indicator that Madeleine died in that apartment, if indeed she is dead.)
Yes, there seem to be a lot of grey areas here and many crimes of this nature that go unnoticed or unrecorded.
It seems that we don't have a true measure of what really goes on.
As a matter of interest, do you know if we have more information on the strangers entering bedrooms that Kate McCann and Redwood speak of? It would be interesting to see sources. Knowing more about this kind of thing could give us a truer picture.
As for the narrow 'from bed' category, we'll have to check with Anne on this one, but I would imagine that that is really a figuritive way of saying 'from a bedroom' or 'from inside a home' .
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 02, 2014, 03:36:06 PM
How successful has the media onslaught approach been?
There are probably several aspects to that.
The family trying to maintain the profile of the missing child in the public eye, versus the lucrative media frenzy and lack of accountability in the press.
And possibly other families trying to deal with extraordinary situations and trying to protect anonymity.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 02, 2014, 06:13:51 PM
Yep. let the police do the job. That's what you call them for.
But the first police to contact was the GNR dealing with minor crime in a rural community... It was then up to them to assess the situation and refer it to the PJ. Not the GNR's fault, but the golden hours would have been missed.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 02, 2014, 07:02:02 PM
I don't see how "statiscally" any opinion can be more valid than other.
What terms are we using here?
Are terms uniform in studies?
Which studies?
Which statistics?
Where?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 02, 2014, 07:09:51 PM
But the first police to contact was the GNR dealing with minor crime in a rural community... It was then up to them to assess the situation and refer it to the PJ. Not the GNR's fault, but the golden hours would have been missed.
Capturing these 'golden hours' achieved what exactly?
Infact it could even have caused the 'abductor' to panic & kill her.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 02, 2014, 08:15:00 PM
Capturing these 'golden hours' achieved what exactly?
Infact it could even have caused the 'abductor' to panic & kill her.
When? That night? Before the news bulletins hit the TV the next morning? Or when the OC missing child protocol was first put in place and everyone was out looking for her that evening?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 03, 2014, 09:55:55 AM
When? That night? Before the news bulletins hit the TV the next morning? Or when the OC missing child protocol was first put in place and everyone was out looking for her that evening?
When the worlds media invaded.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Eleanor on January 03, 2014, 09:59:33 AM
So, we might all as well stop looking for abducted children, and keep it a secret.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 03, 2014, 10:02:09 AM
There are things to be noticed apart from recognition. Difficult, I do agree as time goes by. But I simply do not believe that any sceptic would turn a blind eye if they tripped over something significant.
So, you see, I have much more faith in such people than they have in themselves.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Eleanor on January 03, 2014, 11:50:13 AM
CarlyMichelle is in a cleft stick, poor soul. She was supposedly briefly abandoned by her parents under similar circumstances. But I very much doubt that any of us would accuse her parents of being anything other than good. But then she wasn't abducted. And I very much doubt that she would accuse them either.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 03, 2014, 01:01:42 PM
Yes, there seem to be a lot of grey areas here and many crimes of this nature that go unnoticed or unrecorded.
It seems that we don't have a true measure of what really goes on.
As a matter of interest, do you know if we have more information on the strangers entering bedrooms that Kate McCann and Redwood speak of? It would be interesting to see sources. Knowing more about this kind of thing could give us a truer picture.
As for the narrow 'from bed' category, we'll have to check with Anne on this one, but I would imagine that that is really a figuritive way of saying 'from a bedroom' or 'from inside a home' .
No, I don't know any more about these strangers in children's bedrooms.
A few thoughts for the pot...
There don't actually seem to be that many studies on child stranger abduction and even those that I had found (one US and two UK ones) all seem to use slightly different criteria (including the definition of "child" and the definition of abduction). Not all cases of missing children are reported (e.g., throwaway children), and of those in the long-term missing category, there would a grey area in terms of presumed runaways (obviously mainly teens) and those who may have been held against their will.
I had always assumed that the overwhelming majority of child abductions were parental ones. In terms of the "success" rate, that would seem more or less true according to the following study concerning England and Wales: 23% parental, versus 9% stranger (although I wouldn't consider that ratio to be an overwhelming majority). However, the situation seems more nuanced if you consider "attempted" abductions.
Even though only 9% of the total number of cases examined were "successful" stranger abductions (as opposed to 23% of "successful" parental ones), 56% of the total were stranger ones, including 47% "failed" ones.
STRANGER ABDUCTIONS
Of all recorded abductions and attempted abductions, a very small proportion were instances where a child was actually abducted by a stranger. Importantly, children who are abducted will not necessarily be considered missing, or reported as missing.
A 2004 Home Office study (Newiss and Fairbrother, 2004: 1-6) found that, of the 798 police reports of child abduction and attempted child abduction in England and Wales that year:
56 per cent or all reports involved a stranger 47 per cent of all reports were ‘attempted child abductions by a stranger’ 9 per cent of all reports were successful child abductions by a stranger (n=68 )
PARENTAL ABDUCTIONS
A 2004 Home Office study (Newiss and Fairbrother, 2004: 1-6) found that, of the 798 police reports of child abduction and attempted child abduction in England and Wales that year, 23 per cent involved abduction by a parent. Not all of these children will be the subject of a missing person report. http://www.missingpeople.org.uk/media-centre/papers/detail.asp?dsid=603
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 03, 2014, 01:12:57 PM
In the US, the definition of a stereotypical abduction is: These “stereotypical” kidnappings involved someone the child did not know or was an acquaintance. The child was held overnight, transported 50 miles or more, killed, ransomed or held with the intent to keep the child permanently. http://www.missingkids.com/KeyFacts
According to that US definition, the poor child taken out of her bath in the UK, sexually assaulted and dumped naked in the middle of winter a few hours later by some freak unknown to the family wouldn't count, not because he was a relative or close friend of the family, but because he hadn't necessarily driven 50 miles and hadn't held her overnight.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 03, 2014, 09:48:22 PM
No, I don't know any more about these strangers in children's bedrooms.
A few thoughts for the pot...
There don't actually seem to be that many studies on child stranger abduction and even those that I had found (one US and two UK ones) all seem to use slightly different criteria (including the definition of "child" and the definition of abduction). Not all cases of missing children are reported (e.g., throwaway children), and of those in the long-term missing category, there would a grey area in terms of presumed runaways (obviously mainly teens) and those who may have been held against their will.
I had always assumed that the overwhelming majority of child abductions were parental ones. In terms of the "success" rate, that would seem more or less true according to the following study concerning England and Wales: 23% parental, versus 9% stranger (although I wouldn't consider that ratio to be an overwhelming majority). However, the situation seems more nuanced if you consider "attempted" abductions.
Even though only 9% of the total number of cases examined were "successful" stranger abductions (as opposed to 23% of "successful" parental ones), 56% of the total were stranger ones, including 47% "failed" ones.
STRANGER ABDUCTIONS
Of all recorded abductions and attempted abductions, a very small proportion were instances where a child was actually abducted by a stranger. Importantly, children who are abducted will not necessarily be considered missing, or reported as missing.
A 2004 Home Office study (Newiss and Fairbrother, 2004: 1-6) found that, of the 798 police reports of child abduction and attempted child abduction in England and Wales that year:
56 per cent or all reports involved a stranger 47 per cent of all reports were ‘attempted child abductions by a stranger’ 9 per cent of all reports were successful child abductions by a stranger (n=68 )
PARENTAL ABDUCTIONS
A 2004 Home Office study (Newiss and Fairbrother, 2004: 1-6) found that, of the 798 police reports of child abduction and attempted child abduction in England and Wales that year, 23 per cent involved abduction by a parent. Not all of these children will be the subject of a missing person report. http://www.missingpeople.org.uk/media-centre/papers/detail.asp?dsid=603
Bad example
data only took into account confirmed successfull parental abductions not attempted ones..hence figures flawed and obviously puts " parental abductions" on a much lower rating.....thus 23 per cent to 9 could be dramatically changed
the world KNOWS that harm to kids comes in the vast majority comes from family and or friends of thr family......all statistics prove this....
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on January 05, 2014, 04:59:01 PM
I wondered what posters views on this was...it may reveal why they have come to the conclusion they have.
If you trawl around you will find the incidence of abduction by strangers in the United States. It is remarkably low and remains more or less at the same level.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 05, 2014, 05:48:03 PM
If you trawl around you will find the incidence of abduction by strangers in the United States. It is remarkably low and remains more or less at the same level.
so what do you think are the chances maddie was abducted
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on January 05, 2014, 06:52:33 PM
Cant see any way parents involved...they've been investigated thoroughly and no real evidence found...have kept in public eye and never given any indication of involvement...but if you want Il give them 5 %
Walked out...would most probably have been seen...but maybe 25% Abducted ...70% left
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 05, 2014, 09:13:43 PM
Cant see any way parents involved...they've been investigated thoroughly and no real evidence found...have kept in public eye and never given any indication of involvement...but if you want Il give them 5 %
Walked out...would most probably have been seen...but maybe 25% Abducted ...70% left
Yup,
WAG 8(0(*
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 05, 2014, 09:20:18 PM
You may find this of interest. I know its the US but at least they "do" proper stats. http://www.childfindofamerica.org/information.htm
ive seen all the stats...they may be proper but are you applying them properly...the answers no
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on January 05, 2014, 11:05:16 PM
Consider:- if you toss an English coin in the air there are in fact three possible outcomes on landing. heads tails it stands on its edge fact no matter how improbable the third may be. so the chance of abduction by a stranger is independent of the possible number of outcomes and dependent on the statistical incidence of abductions by a stranger in that locality. So! slim but not out of the question. Acid test:- would you bet the ranch on it?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Holly Goodhead on January 06, 2014, 12:48:59 AM
Very slim I would say. Ben Needham disappeared in 1991 and Maddie in 2007. Two British born children disappeared while overseas in 16 years. If they were abducted by a paedophile ring, gypsies, childless couple or the like then why only two singled out in 16 years?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: colombosstogey on January 06, 2014, 06:12:59 AM
Very slim I would say. Ben Needham disappeared in 1991 and Maddie in 2007. Two British born children disappeared while overseas in 16 years. If they were abducted by a paedophile ring, gypsies, childless couple or the like then why only two singled out in 16 years?
Yes very true. There are sadly so many young children in eastern europe who are taken no one needs to risk taking a high risk child anywhere.
Besides which, NEITHER of these cases have proven to be abduction YET.
Sadly statistically a child taken away by a paedophile is usually found later deceased. Its a sad world.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 07:51:19 AM
Consider:- if you toss an English coin in the air there are in fact three possible outcomes on landing. heads tails it stands on its edge fact no matter how improbable the third may be. so the chance of abduction by a stranger is independent of the possible number of outcomes and dependent on the statistical incidence of abductions by a stranger in that locality. So! slim but not out of the question. Acid test:- would you bet the ranch on it?
Let me explain where you are wrong...
My neighbour buys a lottery ticket...his chances of winning are 14 million to one
next week hes bought a fleet of luxury cars and is spending money like its going out of fashion...what are the odds that he has won the lottery...they are no longer 14 million to one
THis is the mistake you and many others are making... When a child is put to bed the odds of a stranger abduction are very very slim... If shes gone in the morning...AND her parents are not to blame...the odds of stranger abduction are now high
That's a fact
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Cariad on January 06, 2014, 08:03:16 AM
My neighbour buys a lottery ticket...his chances of winning are 14 million to one
next week hes bought a fleet of luxury cars and is spending money like its going out of fashion...what are the odds that he has won the lottery...they are no longer 14 million to one
THis is the mistake you and many others are making... When a child is put to bed the odds of a stranger abduction are very very slim... If shes gone in the morning...AND her parents are not to blame...the odds of stranger abduction are now high
That's a fact
But you don't know that her parents are not to blame! Don't bother quoting Andy Redwood either. He'll only tell us what he wants us to know, not what he thinks.
If you stop taking for granted that the Mccanns are innocent, the odds of stranger abduction go down dramatically.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 08:05:49 AM
Consider:- if you toss an English coin in the air there are in fact three possible outcomes on landing. heads tails it stands on its edge fact no matter how improbable the third may be. so the chance of abduction by a stranger is independent of the possible number of outcomes and dependent on the statistical incidence of abductions by a stranger in that locality. So! slim but not out of the question. Acid test:- would you bet the ranch on it?
il give you another example..you toss acoin..
it doesn't land heads or tails...what are the odds its landed on its edge
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 08:19:18 AM
But you don't know that her parents are not to blame! Don't bother quoting Andy Redwood either. He'll only tell us what he wants us to know, not what he thinks.
If you stop taking for granted that the Mccanns are innocent, the odds of stranger abduction go down dramatically.
im not taking anything for granted..having looked at all the available evidence, like SY, I don't think the parents are to blame
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 06, 2014, 09:24:07 AM
My neighbour buys a lottery ticket...his chances of winning are 14 million to one
next week hes bought a fleet of luxury cars and is spending money like its going out of fashion...what are the odds that he has won the lottery...they are no longer 14 million to one
THis is the mistake you and many others are making... When a child is put to bed the odds of a stranger abduction are very very slim... If shes gone in the morning...AND her parents are not to blame...the odds of stranger abduction are now high
That's a fact
I was looking at it strictly as a mathematical proposition where no possible outcome was prejudged.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 06, 2014, 01:16:52 PM
But you don't know that her parents are not to blame! Don't bother quoting Andy Redwood either. He'll only tell us what he wants us to know, not what he thinks.
If you stop taking for granted that the Mccanns are innocent, the odds of stranger abduction go down dramatically.
Cariad,
When one of you comes up with a sensible scenario how The Mccanns as strangers to PT, with no car, with no giant freezer or fridge etc. could have acheived such a successful getting rid of a body, then your ideas will get more attention.
Also look at the Mccanns. What a happy family they were. Madeleine so happy. She is deeply loved, no doubt about it. Mum and Dad gave her the most important thing as well as the normal parental love. They played with her, they read to her, they talked with her, they laughed with her. A family that interacted at all levels, unlike so many families today where Mum and Dad sit in front of the Tele or selfishly on a computer all day long.
And that interactive and supportive time, which they gave, is one of the main reasons she was such a happy child. And probably she will blossom into an intelligent outgoing person ... so long as she hasn't been abused since.
So, Cariad, for starters, how about a sensible scenario for how The Mccanns "dunit" ? Just so that we can take you seriously, like.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 06, 2014, 01:57:23 PM
But you don't know that her parents are not to blame! Don't bother quoting Andy Redwood either. He'll only tell us what he wants us to know, not what he thinks.
If you stop taking for granted that the Mccanns are innocent, the odds of stranger abduction go down dramatically.
Cariad methinks thou kickest against a firmly closed portal; but you are not alone!
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 06, 2014, 02:44:00 PM
When one of you comes up with a sensible scenario how The Mccanns as strangers to PT, with no car, with no giant freezer or fridge etc. could have acheived such a successful getting rid of a body, then your ideas will get more attention.
Also look at the Mccanns. What a happy family they were. Madeleine so happy. She is deeply loved, no doubt about it. Mum and Dad gave her the most important thing as well as the normal parental love. They played with her, they read to her, they talked with her, they laughed with her. A family that interacted at all levels, unlike so many families today where Mum and Dad sit in front of the Tele or selfishly on a computer all day long.
And that interactive and supportive time, which they gave, is one of the main reasons she was such a happy child. And probably she will blossom into an intelligent outgoing person ... so long as she hasn't been abused since.
So, Cariad, for starters, how about a sensible scenario for how The Mccanns "dunit" ? Just so that we can take you seriously, like.
How do you know what kind of family life they had ?
Your view is pure conjecture and amounts, no more, no less, than attempted propaganda on behalf of the mccanns.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 03:07:29 PM
So what are the odds they have all told the truth from the start ? 8)-)))
I would say that they have told the truth about what happened that night...if I am right then the odds of abduction are high... What I am saying is that you cant use the fact that abductions are rare to say the McCanns must be involved...rare things happen rarely...but they happen
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 03:14:59 PM
Cariad methinks thou kickest against a firmly closed portal; but you are not alone!
The door isn't firmly closed...show me some real evidence and I will change my mind...most people who think the MccAnns are guilty do so on flawed evidence imo..SY aren't fooled by flawed evidence...
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 06, 2014, 03:15:15 PM
I would say that they have told the truth about what happened that night...if I am right then the odds of abduction are high... What I am saying is that you cant use the fact that abductions are rare to say the McCanns must be involved...rare things happen rarely...but they happen
Indeed they do, but without satisfactory evidence to prove it, it remains merely a possibility.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on January 06, 2014, 03:19:30 PM
The door isn't firmly closed...show me some real evidence and I will change my mind...most people who think the MccAnns are guilty do so on flawed evidence imo..SY aren't fooled by flawed evidence...
I bet Barry George is amused at that comment. @)(++(*
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 03:25:46 PM
I would say that they have told the truth about what happened that night...if I am right then the odds of abduction are high... What I am saying is that you cant use the fact that abductions are rare to say the McCanns must be involved...rare things happen rarely...but they happen
It is your belief they have told the truth and it is no more than that, a belief.
As to the odds, that is speculation on your part.
P.S. The odds on winning the lottery are 1 in 13,983,816. Euro, somewhat worse...
50C5 x 11C2
Hope that helps. 8((()*/
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 06, 2014, 03:47:51 PM
I would say that they have told the truth about what happened that night...if I am right then the odds of abduction are high... What I am saying is that you cant use the fact that abductions are rare to say the McCanns must be involved...rare things happen rarely...but they happen
Of course you can't,what you can say is that with no hard evidence either way the probability of parental involvement in a case like this is a lot higher than you imply.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: ferryman on January 06, 2014, 03:49:42 PM
Of course you can't,what you can say is that with no hard evidence either way the probability of parental involvement in a case like this is a lot higher than you imply.
No you can't.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 06, 2014, 03:58:48 PM
Statistically, children are not abducted from the bath of a ground-floor flat while the whole family is at home.
But it happened.
So do you think members of that little girl's family should have been suspected by statistics had not the real culprit been apprehended?
You are using the argument that because Bill has won £1 million on the lottery, the most certain way for me to get £1 million is to buy a lottery ticket.
We are talking probability not actuals. Probabilities tell the police the best use of resources in investigating a particular crime.
Quote
The murder of a child who is abducted by a stranger is a rare event. There are estimated to be about 100 such incidents in the United States each year, less than one-half of one percent of the murders committed. There is approximately one child abduction murder for every 10,000 reports of a missing child.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on January 06, 2014, 04:28:28 PM
I thought the question was Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted. Everyone seems to be answering a different question !! Would anyone like to borrow some good books on probability theory?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 04:49:07 PM
I thought the question was Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted. Everyone seems to be answering a different question !! Would anyone like to borrow some good books on probability theory?
that the question... the question isn't what were the chances of Maddie being abducted...if you understand probability theory then you will understand the difference
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 06, 2014, 04:52:34 PM
Statistically, children are not abducted from the bath of a ground-floor flat while the whole family is at home.
But it happened.
So do you think members of that little girl's family should have been suspected by statistics had not the real culprit been apprehended?
That is a poor exampe to use, the girl was found by searchers within 24 hours IIRC and returned to her mother.....no one would have suspected her in this case....no grounds for it...before or after man was caught
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 04:57:32 PM
That is a poor exampe to use, the girl was found by searchers within 24 hours IIRC and returned to her mother.....no one would have suspected her in this case....no grounds for it
Parents are ALWAYS suspects in missing children cases...a competent police force will look at them straight away but still investigate all other options
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 06, 2014, 05:03:35 PM
that the question... the question isn't what were the chances of Maddie being abducted...if you understand probability theory then you will understand the difference
You seem to have forgotten the title of your own thread davel; keep up!
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 06, 2014, 05:11:12 PM
I would say that they have told the truth about what happened that night...if I am right then the odds of abduction are high... What I am saying is that you cant use the fact that abductions are rare to say the McCanns must be involved...rare things happen rarely...but they happen
I agree. 'Rare' does not equate to 'never' - which IMO is being claimed by some people
Statistics would have to show that stranger abduction has never happened for that to be the case.
I believe the McCanns and their friends have always told the truth. However that does not mean that everything they have said is accurate because, as we all know, memories are notoriously flawed and different people have different powers of recall and different concepts of time and distance. Hence inconsistencies - which the UK police have stated are perfectly normal - whenever a group of people are asked to recall the same events.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 05:15:12 PM
that the question... the question isn't what were the chances of Maddie being abducted...if you understand probability theory then you will understand the difference
I understand your hair splitting. After the event, evidence will skew the probabilities. Things such as the Window and associated forensic evidence, sightings and the dogs would adjust the odds.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on January 06, 2014, 05:19:56 PM
I understand your hair splitting. After the event, evidence will skew the probabilities. Things such as the Window and associated forensic evidence, sightings and the dogs would adjust the odds.
thank god someone can understand English...Im afraid estuarine and red don't For est and red...there is a difference between was and were
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 05:22:46 PM
I understand your hair splitting. After the event, evidence will skew the probabilities. Things such as the Window and associated forensic evidence, sightings and the dogs would adjust the odds.
Would the statistics not have been based only on children who had gone missing ? As there is is credible proven evidence, there will be no skewing of those stats.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 05:25:00 PM
Would the statistics not have been based only on children who had gone missing ? As there is is credible proven evidence, there will be no skewing of those stats.
I think you are tying yourself in "nots"
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 06, 2014, 05:26:00 PM
Would the statistics not have been based only on children who had gone missing ? As there is is credible proven evidence, there will be no skewing of those stats.
Yes, it is the only sensible approach with the lack of hard evidence.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 06, 2014, 05:26:05 PM
Would the statistics not have been based only on children who had gone missing ? As there is is credible proven evidence, there will be no skewing of those stats.
Sorry, do you mean that the evidence is that she is missing?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 06, 2014, 05:28:30 PM
That is a poor exampe to use, the girl was found by searchers within 24 hours IIRC and returned to her mother.....no one would have suspected her in this case....no grounds for it...before or after man was caught
We are debating whether it is reasonable to suspect the parents on the basis of statistics.
It isn't.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 06, 2014, 05:29:41 PM
I understand your hair splitting. After the event, evidence will skew the probabilities. Things such as the Window and associated forensic evidence, sightings and the dogs would adjust the odds.
Quite correct Slartibartfast
The precis of this thread ignores the basic rule of statistics ... Stastical prediction is broad brush and ignores specifics
In this case 'the specifics' include those you mention ... the window and shutters opened from the inside to no apparent purpose, and a cadaver dog alerting in the apartment where the missing child was last seen
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on January 06, 2014, 05:46:35 PM
This has probably been asked before but does anyone know of a case where a toddler has been abducted and recovered alive after several years?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 05:56:14 PM
The precis of this thread ignores the basic rule of statistics ... Stastical prediction is broad brush and ignores specifics
In this case 'the specifics' include those you mention ... the window and shutters opened from the inside to no apparent purpose, and a cadaver dog alerting in the apartment where the missing child was last seen
wrong again...the title of the thread asks a question..it ignores nothing...all the specifics play a part in deciding what the chances are that Maddie WAS abducted...
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 05:58:19 PM
so am I...do many people use that word in the US..craic
I don't know I am not in the US
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 06:03:23 PM
Put simply..if the parents are not involved then its highly probable there was a stranger abduction
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 06, 2014, 06:06:12 PM
You can that round, of course. If there was no evidence of stranger abduction then it would be highly probable that the parents or friends were involved.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 06, 2014, 06:08:41 PM
This has probably been asked before but does anyone know of a case where a toddler has been abducted and recovered alive after several years?
Nope...there are cases of teenagers abducted for sexual motivations who turned up alive years later but no toddler....which makes me wonder why the mccanns touted all these cases as a hope?..perhaps a new thread?
Neither have i heard of any person/couple abducting a four yr old to cherish and love because they were childless
If paedophiles took her, she is certainly dead
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Lyall on January 06, 2014, 06:08:48 PM
You can that round, of course. If there was no evidence of stranger then it would be highly probable that the parents or friends were involved.
I don't think so...no evidence of a stranger doesn't mean absence of a stranger...as far as I am aware the pj didnt do a proper dna sweep of the bedclothes...there may well have been evidence
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 06:14:29 PM
I'd rephrase that: "If the parents are completely honest with the police then..."
and you have absolutely no way of knowing if they were or they weren't.
We have no way of knowing for certain...but we have no way of knowing for certain she wasn't snatched by the CIA...We have to look at what is reasonable and what the evidence tells us.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 06, 2014, 06:14:46 PM
I don't think so...no evidence of a stranger doesn't mean absence of a stranger...as far as I am aware the pj didnt do a proper dna sweep of the bedclothes...there may well have been evidence
There may, but as none was detected, it is wrong to assume that it was present.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 06:16:52 PM
There may, but as none was detected, it is wrong to assume that it was present.
im not assuming it was present but if a proper analysis wasn't carried out then its not surprising no evidence was found...if you don't look ...you aint gonna find
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Lyall on January 06, 2014, 06:25:36 PM
We have no way of knowing for certain...but we have no way of knowing for certain she wasn't snatched by the CIA...We have to look at what is reasonable and what the evidence tells us.
Well it doesn't tell us anything definitely. The AG told us that in 2008.
Do you mean look at what is reasonable and what the evidence tells us... and then guess?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on January 06, 2014, 06:40:42 PM
The figures wrong...it assumes all the balls are of equal weight...that's complex stats
Not quite right davel.
I've heard that on before,about bodies of different mass. Insignificant in case of the National Lottery.
Having seen several statistical analyses including several of my students course works, the ball number frequencies follow a discrete uniform distribution, that is also backed up by significance testing as well.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 07:37:14 PM
I've heard that on before,about bodies of different mass. Insignificant in case of the National Lottery.
Having seen several statistical analyses including several of my students course works, the ball number frequencies follow a discrete uniform distribution, that is also backed up by significance testing as well.
you wouldn't be able to carry out enough draws to test this to any statistical significance...we are now off topic but by all means you can have the last word
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 07:38:36 PM
I reckon half the country thnks the same..or similar....or at least is wised up to the fact it is is no ordinary slam dunk child abduction case....not by any means at all ...i would also say the vast majority of the public are seriously bored withthe story...at best.....annoyed otherwise its stuck in ther faces all the time.....as if they should care after all this time in general but in paticular when the parents didnt care at the time...leaving their three babies all alone....in danger, in an apartment open to the street and t o every tom dick and harry, and being out of ear and eyeshot.....yes, they made the conscious decision to do this...
Ie its their problem.....even when thy have tried to blame half the world and its wife......
Edited for afterthoughts....
8((()*/
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 07:59:55 PM
I reckon half the country thnks the same..or similar....or at least is wised up to the fact it is is no ordinary slam dunk child abduction case....not by any means at all ...i would also say the vast majority of the public are seriously bored withthe story...at best.....annoyed otherwise its stuck in ther faces all the time.....as if they should care after all this time in general but in paticular when the parents didnt care at the time...leaving their three babies all alone....
Well half the country are of below average intelligence
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 08:00:47 PM
you wouldn't be able to carry out enough draws to test this to any statistical significance...we are now off topic but by all means you can have the last word
Not correct,there exists a sufficient number of trials already to validate a hypothesis.
Now davel, on what basis do you base your prediction of an abduction ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 08:06:58 PM
Thanks, we should never forget there is zero evidence of any abduction......not even a scintilla....
you seem to have stopped stephens thread of thought
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 06, 2014, 08:31:49 PM
Unfortunately there is zero evidence fr anything else, which is why the case was shelved in the first place. I don't expect SY to provide a satisfactory answer, either.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 08:32:33 PM
Unfortunately there is zero evidence fr anything else, which is why the case was shelved in the first place. I don't expect SY to provide a satisfactory answer, either.
Im afraid you well may be right...lets hope not
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 06, 2014, 08:34:54 PM
Unfortunately there is zero evidence fr anything else, which is why the case was shelved in the first place. I don't expect SY to provide a satisfactory answer, either.
I wouldnt say zero evidence...the dogs were indicative.....and i wont start on the mccanns strange words and behaviors....
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on January 06, 2014, 08:35:34 PM
Unfortunately there is zero evidence fr anything else, which is why the case was shelved in the first place. I don't expect SY to provide a satisfactory answer, either.
I wish to be associated with the comment of this poster
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 08:37:48 PM
Don't worry davel, I just been having dinner. 8)-)))
Meanwhile what is your statistical base for abduction ?
we need to agree what the options are first... I have to be sure you don't think one of Icke's lizards were involved..so what are your options...that's the question I'm asking by the way
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 08:47:34 PM
we need to agree what the options are first... I have to be sure you don't think one of Icke's lizards were involved..so what are your options...that's the question I'm asking by the way
There's no evidence either way. 8(0(*
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 08:51:20 PM
you wouldn't be able to carry out enough draws to test this to any statistical significance...we are now off topic but by all means you can have the last word
It's a question of what significance levels you choose.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 09:01:47 PM
Actually accidental death by parents with friends innocent or vice versa could also be a possibility. As well as the same scenario with deliberate death, however remote each option may or may not be.
Yes all possibilities should be considered
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 06, 2014, 09:19:08 PM
Yes, but unfortunately not enough to act as proof of anything. Statements should have been more rigorously tested from the beginning.
I think my last post went missing! Hereby lies the rub; there was insufficient evidence to obtain a prosecution so the case was archived. Working on the balance of probability we all have our own ideas the Portuguese police included. After nearly 7years no credible evidence of the little girls fate. If we believe the stories, PDL in May 2007 must have been busting at the seams with paedophiles and ne'er do wells of varying makes and shapes. A bit like the Hydra really; def out Tannerman and 10 more pop up who oddly were below the radar at the time. I have this mate with several bridges to sell to anyone who falls for that.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: VIXTE on January 06, 2014, 11:37:04 PM
I think my last post went missing! Hereby lies the rub; there was insufficient evidence to obtain a prosecution so the case was archived. Working on the balance of probability we all have our own ideas the Portuguese police included. After nearly 7years no credible evidence of the little girls fate. If we believe the stories, PDL in May 2007 must have been busting at the seams with paedophiles and ne'er do wells of varying makes and shapes. A bit like the Hydra really; def out Tannerman and 10 more pop up who oddly were below the radar at the time. I have this mate with several bridges to sell to anyone who falls for that.
Not sure what you are on about.. but there is a list of UK registered peados who were in PDL at the time.. Portugal at the time did not have such list.. but there were also people from other countries lists, for the countries that have a Register. The unregistered we are not counting ;)
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 07, 2014, 04:04:16 AM
When one of you comes up with a sensible scenario how The Mccanns as strangers to PT, with no car, with no giant freezer or fridge etc. could have acheived such a successful getting rid of a body, then your ideas will get more attention.
Also look at the Mccanns. What a happy family they were. Madeleine so happy. She is deeply loved, no doubt about it. Mum and Dad gave her the most important thing as well as the normal parental love. They played with her, they read to her, they talked with her, they laughed with her. A family that interacted at all levels, unlike so many families today where Mum and Dad sit in front of the Tele or selfishly on a computer all day long.
And that interactive and supportive time, which they gave, is one of the main reasons she was such a happy child. And probably she will blossom into an intelligent outgoing person ... so long as she hasn't been abused since.
So, Cariad, for starters, how about a sensible scenario for how The Mccanns "dunit" ? Just so that we can take you seriously, like.
Sadie
I have no idea what happened to Madeleine. I have never claimed to know. I have never claimed that the Mccanns 'dunit'.
As for credible scenarios, having seen your idea of credible I'm going to propose that it was Elvis what 'dunit' and they are now living in an alternate universe populated by purple unicorns.
At least it's a happy ending.
Catching up now... Just needed to reply to this post first as it annoyed me so much.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: colombosstogey on January 07, 2014, 11:12:33 AM
I have no idea what happened to Madeleine. I have never claimed to know. I have never claimed that the Mccanns 'dunit'.
As for credible scenarios, having seen your idea of credible I'm going to propose that it was Elvis what 'dunit' and they are now living in an alternate universe populated by purple unicorns.
At least it's a happy ending.
Catching up now... Just needed to reply to this post first as it annoyed me so much.
It annoyed me too, i thought it was totally un called for as your one of the most balanced posters on here.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on January 07, 2014, 11:31:27 AM
Not sure what you are on about.. but there is a list of UK registered peados who were in PDL at the time.. Portugal at the time did not have such list.. but there were also people from other countries lists, for the countries that have a Register. The unregistered we are not counting ;)
Yeah sorry I can sometimes be too cryptic. The "Jane Tanner" sighting was the keystone of the abduction theory although the Portuguese police didn't give it credence the UK did. That remained the case until Mr Redwood blew it out of the water. So the abduction theory started to look flakey. The key element (the JT sighting) effectively being demolished. For the abduction theory to now stand up we need another "perp". So (according to the press) loads more "possibles" are suddenly produced. Possibles that went unnoticed for 6+ years. Although the case was shelved the Portuguese police maintain they continued to receive information. For the abduction theory to stand up we now need to believe in a succession of unlikely events. The first one being that PDL was heaving with people just waiting to snatch a child. I don't profess to know the answer but I know when I am being offered a sucker bet.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on January 07, 2014, 11:37:05 AM
I'm with Sadie on this...many posters want to rubbish other posters ideas but don't come up with any credible scenarios themselves.
So it's not ok to say 'I don't know what happened to Madeleine' as I repeatedly have? I need to come up with a scenario of my own, which I have to believe is 100% accurate before I can express an opinion on this case?
Sorry, can't do that. There is practically no evidence to support anything! The best I can do is say that something is a bit iffy in my opinion. The best you can say is that you don't believe the parents were involved.
Demanding that I supply some theory based on nothing is pointless. See previous Elvis/unicorn/alternate dimension one is you do insist. It'll do as a stand in for now and isn't that incredible compared with some I've seen.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 05:22:13 PM
Not sure what you are on about.. but there is a list of UK registered peados who were in PDL at the time.. Portugal at the time did not have such list.. but there were also people from other countries lists, for the countries that have a Register. The unregistered we are not counting ;)
You sure about that? Only read there were some in Portugal
Which is a vastly wider space, happy to be corrected though....
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 07, 2014, 05:25:03 PM
You sure about that? Only read there were some in Portugal
Which is a vastly wider space, happy to be corrected though....
Ah, but don't you know, PDL is a veritable lodestone for paedophiles, attracting them from far and wide, just so they can lurk, upsetting the visitors.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 05:26:21 PM
So it's not ok to say 'I don't know what happened to Madeleine' as I repeatedly have? I need to come up with a scenario of my own, which I have to believe is 100% accurate before I can express an opinion on this case?
Sorry, can't do that. There is practically no evidence to support anything! The best I can do is say that something is a bit iffy in my opinion. The best you can say is that you don't believe the parents were involved.
Demanding that I supply some theory based on nothing is pointless. See previous Elvis/unicorn/alternate dimension one is you do insist. It'll do as a stand in for now and isn't that incredible compared with some I've seen.
Well said!
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 05:29:52 PM
Ah, but don't you know, PDL is a veritable lodestone for paedophiles, attracting them from far and wide, just so they can lurk, upsetting the visitors.
Well, we had the Portugal is "awash with paedophiles" headlines and Kate Mccann accusing Portugal of hiding things..., but PDL? Never heard such a thing! I guess no child was ever in PDL to attract one before Madeleine Mccan! *snortle* then again it was a robbery gone wrong according to some theorists....,,,
>@@(*&)
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 07, 2014, 05:33:54 PM
Ah, but don't you know, PDL is a veritable lodestone for paedophiles, attracting them from far and wide, just so they can lurk, upsetting the visitors.
The Algarve is awash with paedophiles. And if weren't them what did it then it must be drug addicted burglars, failing that it could be alcoholics, tax evaders or illegal street traders.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 05:36:19 PM
The Algarve is awash with paedophiles. And if weren't them what did it then it must be drug addicted burglars, failing that it could be alcoholics, tax evaders or illegal street traders.
I cant recall anyone who couldnt be a suspect.......they all are
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 07, 2014, 05:38:03 PM
So it's not ok to say 'I don't know what happened to Madeleine' as I repeatedly have? I need to come up with a scenario of my own, which I have to believe is 100% accurate before I can express an opinion on this case?
Sorry, can't do that. There is practically no evidence to support anything! The best I can do is say that something is a bit iffy in my opinion. The best you can say is that you don't believe the parents were involved.
Demanding that I supply some theory based on nothing is pointless. See previous Elvis/unicorn/alternate dimension one is you do insist. It'll do as a stand in for now and isn't that incredible compared with some I've seen.
What I am saying is that it is irrrritating that when you state an opinion...as I have done...some posters like to ridicule you wheras they are unwilling to put their head above the parapet...I am certainly not deluded...do not have a closed mind...am not in the pay of the McCanns ...am not a crap parent. I am used to looking at evidence and assessing evidence...from what I have seen the McCanns are not criminally involved in Maddies disappearance... I think there is plenty of evidence to show that they are not the type of parent who would harm their daughter
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 07, 2014, 05:41:02 PM
What I am saying is that it is irrrritating that when you state an opinion...as I have done...some posters like to ridicule you wheras they are unwilling to put their head above the parapet...I am certainly not deluded...do not have a closed mind...am not in the pay of the McCanns ...am not a crap parent. I am used to looking at evidence and assessing evidence...from what I have seen the McCanns are not criminally involved in Maddies disappearance... I think there is plenty of evidence to show that they are not the type of parent who would harm their daughter
They could have harmed her unintentionally.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 05:43:12 PM
Or she could have come to harm when they were out....the amount of people accusing others of saying they murdered her is ridiculous....when no one to my knowledge has ever said that.....
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 07, 2014, 05:50:06 PM
The Algarve is awash with paedophiles. And if weren't them what did it then it must be drug addicted burglars, failing that it could be alcoholics, tax evaders or illegal street traders.
Or even a chronic acne suffer.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 05:56:17 PM
Thats right, spotty man also burst his spots in 5a, thats what the cadaver dog reacted to some said, decomposing fluids....seriously....dont ask me for a link, but some idiot did say that
@)(++(*
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 07, 2014, 05:56:55 PM
the chances of a fatal accident are probably similar to an abductor...then you have the added problem to explain...why the deception...theres no good reason for it. They would not have been struck off the GMC register for it...they would for faking an abduction...then they had to enlist the help of all their friends...who would also now face jail...this scenario is way way crazier than a stranger abduction
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 07, 2014, 05:57:55 PM
Thats right, spotty man also burst his spots in 5a, thats what the cadaver dog reacted to some said, decomposing fluids....seriously....dont ask me for a link, but some idiot did say that
@)(++(*
or as grime said the alerts had no evidential value
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 07, 2014, 06:06:56 PM
the chances of a fatal accident are probably similar to an abductor...then you have the added problem to explain...why the deception...theres no good reason for it. They would not have been struck off the GMC register for it...they would for faking an abduction...then they had to enlist the help of all their friends...who would also now face jail...this scenario is way way crazier than a stranger abduction
'why the deception...theres no good reason for it.'
Not wanting your own parents/family/ the rest of the world to know what shit parents you were.
'then they had to enlist the help of all their friends'
Not all there friends perhaps.
'this scenario is way way crazier than a stranger abduction'
Stranger abduction scenario requires the invention of a 'strange abductor'. Death scenario does not require the invention of a third party.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 07, 2014, 06:15:14 PM
Absolutely NOT 100 per cent....its pathetic to the extreme to suggest so
certainly isn't pathetic...as I have posted before...the overwhelming majority of fatal accidents involve fires and stairs...blind cords ...none of these in the appt . have a look at the govt website..you will learn something.. but live in ignorance if you want
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 07, 2014, 06:37:01 PM
Most happen between late afternoon and early evening, in the summer, during school holidays and at weekends Factors such as stress, death in the family, chronic illness, homelessness or moving home increase the likelihood of the child having an accident Some happen when the usual routine is changed or when people are in a hurry Distractions and inadequate supervision are often the cause of accidents Poor housing and overcrowded conditions lead to increased numbers of accidents Some accidents are caused by lack of familiarity with surroundings, for example, when visiting friends or relatives, or in holiday accommodation.'
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 07, 2014, 07:13:31 PM
Most happen between late afternoon and early evening, in the summer, during school holidays and at weekends Factors such as stress, death in the family, chronic illness, homelessness or moving home increase the likelihood of the child having an accident Some happen when the usual routine is changed or when people are in a hurry Distractions and inadequate supervision are often the cause of accidents Poor housing and overcrowded conditions lead to increased numbers of accidents Some accidents are caused by lack of familiarity with surroundings, for example, when visiting friends or relatives, or in holiday accommodation.'
Did you miss this The most severe injuries are associated with heat-related accidents and falls from a height
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 07, 2014, 07:15:52 PM
Most happen between late afternoon and early evening, in the summer, during school holidays and at weekends Factors such as stress, death in the family, chronic illness, homelessness or moving home increase the likelihood of the child having an accident Some happen when the usual routine is changed or when people are in a hurry Distractions and inadequate supervision are often the cause of accidents Poor housing and overcrowded conditions lead to increased numbers of accidents Some accidents are caused by lack of familiarity with surroundings, for example, when visiting friends or relatives, or in holiday accommodation.'
Accidents seldom, if ever, happen when completely zonked children are crashed out in bed fast asleep.
The children had had, no doubt fun-filled, but also hectic and exhausting, days organised for them by the staff of the creche.
That'll be why they slept so soundly through the chaos and confusion of events of the night May 3rd.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 07, 2014, 07:27:01 PM
You are a pillock....directly involved with the McCanns... I sometimes wonder what sort of people I am discussing things with...you just showed yourself to be the most stupid..do you think Im being paid as well...
Oh dear, insults fly again.
No, your continued defense of the Mccanns is against all logic and reason.
However, very predictable. 8)-)))
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 07, 2014, 09:04:09 PM
Interesting program on ITV right now.
'The Lying game'.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 07, 2014, 11:08:48 PM
It was interesting that one of the experts on "The Lying Game" said that the McCanns are 100% innocent.
Yes considering nothing is proven it's a rather bold assumption to make & I can't help but wonder if her decision came from confirmation bias. However that could also be confirmation bias.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 07, 2014, 11:28:01 PM
It was interesting that one of the experts on "The Lying Game" said that the McCanns are 100% innocent.
Indeed Puglove. That was Dr Sharon Leal, a Forensic Psychologist. No doubt the lady will now be trashed, ridiculed and insulted by those who were watching the programme desperately hoping for the exact opposite to be stated.
In fact before the day is out I fully expect she will be ''in on it'' - according to some.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 07, 2014, 11:40:05 PM
Indeed Puglove. That was Dr Sharon Leal, a Forensic Psychologist. No doubt the lady will now be trashed, ridiculed and insulted by those who were watching the programme desperately hoping for the exact opposite to be stated.
In fact before the day is out I fully expect she will be ''in on it'' - according to some.
Confirmation bias.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 07, 2014, 11:41:46 PM
Indeed Puglove. That was Dr Sharon Leal, a Forensic Psychologist. No doubt the lady will now be trashed, ridiculed and insulted by those who were watching the programme desperately hoping for the exact opposite to be stated.
In fact before the day is out I fully expect she will be ''in on it'' - according to some.
8((()*/ it is to be expected ... with some.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: puglove on January 07, 2014, 11:44:18 PM
It's best if I don't discuss this further, I'm sure you all know who I am and how much trouble I got into last time I did! For what it's worth, I think that the McCanns are innocent too, they were just inefficient parents. Most get away with it, if we're totally honest. They didn't. And maybe they should use a spokesperson, because they don't do themselves any favours when they appear on television.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 12:06:09 AM
It's best if I don't discuss this further, I'm sure you all know who I am and how much trouble I got into last time I did! For what it's worth, I think that the McCanns are innocent too, they were just inefficient parents. Most get away with it, if we're totally honest. They didn't. And maybe they should use a spokesperson, because they don't do themselves any favours when they appear on television.
But why would she?
McCann innocence has been drummed into the eyes & ears of the public since Smethurst spoke of expunging & portraying.
Some people find it impossible to imagine they could have hidden her body, since they can't imagine themselves doing it.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: puglove on January 08, 2014, 12:33:13 AM
McCann innocence has been drummed into the eyes & ears of the public since Smethurst spoke of expunging & portraying.
Some people find it impossible to imagine they could have hidden her body, since they can't imagine themselves doing it.
Stop tempting me back with your juicy pink meat, Spam!
We're not all led round by the nose, and I for one have no idea who Smethurst is. I find it impossible that Maddie's body was hidden in such a short time, because so many people were alerted, and they could (hopefully did) look everywhere. So where was she hidden? Seriously? What a risk.
None of this (your theory) adds up for me. And I genuinely don't believe that Kate could have been party to, or carried it off.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 12:37:37 AM
Stop tempting me back with your juicy pink meat, Spam!
We're not all led round by the nose, and I for one have no idea who Smethurst is. I find it impossible that Maddie's body was hidden in such a short time, because so many people were alerted, and they could (hopefully did) look everywhere. So where was she hidden? Seriously? What a risk.
None of this (your theory) adds up for me. And I genuinely don't believe that Kate could have been party to, or carried it off.
In a large dumpster type bin. If she had been found during the searching they could still deny any involvement. If she wasn't found they could be pretty damn certain she would never be.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: puglove on January 08, 2014, 12:47:13 AM
In a large dumpster type bin. If she had been found during the searching they could still deny any involvement. If she wasn't found they could be pretty damn certain she would never be.
So. How many of these dumpster bins were within a mile vicinity? When were they emptied? Weren't they checked? The most famous missing child in the world, global within 24 hours, and any evidence slipped away under everyone's noses? If I had a heart of stone, like some I've witnessed on here, I'd wonder if she'd been magicked away on Hagrid's motorbike. Who hid her, Gerry? Were his holiday clothes checked for DNA?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 08, 2014, 12:51:58 AM
McCann innocence has been drummed into the eyes & ears of the public since Smethurst spoke of expunging & portraying.
Some people find it impossible to imagine they could have hidden her body, since they can't imagine themselves doing it.
I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body - and how they moved it again 3 weeks later. Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together, came up with such a complicated, imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.
That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends. Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'. Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 12:58:08 AM
So. How many of these dumpster bins were within a mile vicinity? When were they emptied? Weren't they checked? The most famous missing child in the world, global within 24 hours, and any evidence slipped away under everyone's noses? If I had a heart of stone, like some I've witnessed on here, I'd wonder if she'd been magicked away on Hagrid's motorbike. Who hid her, Gerry? Were his holiday clothes checked for DNA?
How many of these dumpster bins were within a mile vicinity?
Pass.
When were they emptied?
Early morning probably.
Weren't they checked?
Possibly not every bin if people believed they were looking for a living child having been carried off in one specific direction.
Who hid her, Gerry? Were his holiday clothes checked for DNA?
Could have disposed of clothing which came into contact with dead child (jacket for example) in a similar manner to disposal of dead child.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: puglove on January 08, 2014, 01:00:18 AM
I've already lost my mod hat and invisibility cloak because of this case, I'm nearly down to my pants. If you can honestly look at Kate and think that she would cover for Gerry, when she obviously loved that little girl so much, there's nothing more I can say. They took a chance, they didn't get away with it. How many members of staff, cleaners etc. could have entered that apartment? How many itinerant weirdos passed through, with their own agenda? How impossibly unlikely would the rest of the Tapas group not break under questioning?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 01:02:06 AM
I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body - and how they moved it again 3 weeks later. Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together, came up with such a complicated, imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.
That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends. Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'. Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.
and how they moved it again 3 weeks later.
Not necessary.
Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together,
Wouldn't have to involve all 9.
all apparently colluding together, came up with such a complicated, imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.
Nothing particuarly complicated about sticking her in the bin.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: puglove on January 08, 2014, 01:07:43 AM
I've already lost my mod hat and invisibility cloak because of this case, I'm nearly down to my pants. If you can honestly look at Kate and think that she would cover for Gerry, when she obviously loved that little girl so much, there's nothing more I can say. They took a chance, they didn't get away with it. How many members of staff, cleaners etc. could have entered that apartment? How many itinerant weirdos passed through, with their own agenda? How impossibly unlikely would the rest of the Tapas group not break under questioning?
How impossibly unlikely would the rest of the Tapas group not break under questioning?
Wouldn't have to involve all tapas 9.
How many members of staff, cleaners etc. could have entered that apartment?
Some possibly or none at all, but if she is hidden, no one would see.
If you can honestly look at Kate and think that she would cover for Gerry
I can easily believe they could have an unbreakable bond.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 01:11:42 AM
I've already lost my mod hat and invisibility cloak because of this case, I'm nearly down to my pants. If you can honestly look at Kate and think that she would cover for Gerry, when she obviously loved that little girl so much, there's nothing more I can say. They took a chance, they didn't get away with it. How many members of staff, cleaners etc. could have entered that apartment? How many itinerant weirdos passed through, with their own agenda? How impossibly unlikely would the rest of the Tapas group not break under questioning?
Not break? Who on the other side of any desk they sat at was ever trying to 'break' them?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Lyall on January 08, 2014, 01:18:22 AM
The Portuguese and British police both treated them with kid gloves.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: puglove on January 08, 2014, 01:20:54 AM
How impossibly unlikely would the rest of the Tapas group not break under questioning?
Wouldn't have to involve all tapas 9.
How many members of staff, cleaners etc. could have entered that apartment?
Some possibly or none at all, but if she is hidden, no one would see.
If you can honestly look at Kate and think that she would cover for Gerry
I can easily believe they could have an unbreakable bond.
Hmm. Occam's razor, I suppose. With the Bamber case, Simon Hall and Madeleine. It's all there, simple and sad.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 08, 2014, 01:27:24 AM
Smithman didn't kill anyone IMO. He saved the day/life in regards to what happened at 5A. Consequences of actions can make people resort to extraordinary lengths. Luck was definitely involved in regards to searches uncovering nothing. Smithman may be totally confident that nothing can now be found but I'm not so sure.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 01:27:50 AM
Smithman didn't kill anyone IMO. He saved the day/life in regards to what happened at 5A. Consequences of actions can make people resort to extraordinary lengths. Luck was definitely involved in regards to searches uncovering nothing. Smithman may be totally confident that nothing can be found but I'm not so sure.
No one killed anyone I imagine.
Consequences of actions can make people resort to extraordinary lengths.
People can do some strange things under pressure.
Smithman may be totally confident that nothing can be found but I'm not so sure.
Sadly I don't think she will ever be found.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: puglove on January 08, 2014, 01:33:48 AM
Blimey, it took you long enough. I swear, drink too much, and I love pugs.
*Hint* I'm not Princess Michael of Kent. 8((()*/
Sorry I offended you before. I am not really a totally evil b........, (I used to volunteer for a christian charity providing holidays for under privaliged kids & had an enhanced crb check, I sometimes rescue animals for my local rspca centre) it's just when I enter internet land my warped imagination can run riot.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: puglove on January 08, 2014, 01:56:47 AM
Sorry I offended you before. I am not really a totally evil b........, (I used to volunteer for a christian charity providing holidays for under privaliged kids & had an enhanced crb check, I sometimes rescue animals for my local rspca centre) it's just when I enter internet land my warped imagination can run riot.
You haven't offended me. It took me yonks until I realised forum world isn't real world. There are horrible people who sit out there, in their pants, wanking and trolling. More to be pittied than scolded. And I did it, too. I should have forgiven Grahame Belton, instead of calling him a massive nobjockey.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 08, 2014, 04:18:17 AM
I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body - and how they moved it again 3 weeks later. Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together, came up with such a complicated, imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.
That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends. Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'. Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.
This is one of my problems as well, Benice. No credible explanations whatsoever.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 08, 2014, 08:20:41 AM
It was interesting that one of the experts on "The Lying Game" said that the McCanns are 100% innocent.
Hardly surprising.
One image at the start of madeleine's disappearance,and one opinion. She admitted people can be fooled by those who lie, including psychologists.
However, a search of the net will reveal other forensic psychologists with other points of view as regards the Mccanns. There is a plethora of interviews with them which are worth viewing showing their verbal and non-verbal responses.
However, people who support the Mccanns will say they haven't lied, whilst those who don't believe them will of course think the reverse, and that won't change.
P.S. The program was a Murdoch production.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Eleanor on January 08, 2014, 08:43:57 AM
One image at the start of madeleine's disappearance,and one opinion. She admitted people can be fooled by those who lie, including psychologists.
However, a search of the net will reveal other forensic psychologists with other points of view as regards the Mccanns. There is a plethora of interviews with them which are worth viewing showing their verbal and non-verbal responses.
However, people who support the Mccanns will say they haven't lied, whilst those who don't believe them will of course think the reverse, and that won't change.
P.S. The program was a Murdoch production.
These other 'forensic psychologists' - do they have anything like the same professional qualifications and reputation?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 08, 2014, 09:49:50 AM
One image at the start of madeleine's disappearance,and one opinion. She admitted people can be fooled by those who lie, including psychologists.
However, a search of the net will reveal other forensic psychologists with other points of view as regards the Mccanns. There is a plethora of interviews with them which are worth viewing showing their verbal and non-verbal responses.
However, people who support the Mccanns will say they haven't lied, whilst those who don't believe them will of course think the reverse, and that won't change.
P.S. The program was a Murdoch production.
You seem to be inferring that Dr Leal only studied one image? She is a highly qualified expert in her field - do you really think she would publically make such an unequivocal assessment claiming that the McCanns were 100% innocent on the strength of one image?
What has Murdoch got to do with Dr Leal? Please elucidate.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 08, 2014, 10:08:33 AM
You seem to be inferring that Dr Leal only studied one image? She is a highly qualified expert in her field - do you really think she would publically make such an unequivocal assessment claiming that the McCanns were 100% innocent on the strength of one image?
What has Murdoch got to do with Dr Leal? Please elucidate.
Other experts have given different opinions.
One 'expert' b y themselves is insufficient to draw any conclusions.
As to the Murdoch connection, extremely well known.
Did you also really expect the mccanns top be called liars on TV on a major network with the threat of libel ???
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 08, 2014, 10:15:19 AM
One 'expert' b y themselves is insufficient to draw any conclusions.
As to the Murdoch connection, extremely well known.
Did you also really expect the mccanns top be called liars on TV on a major network with the threat of libel ???
I have no idea what the Murdoch connection is - as you appear to know all the details - would you please explain?
No-one forced Dr Leal to give her assessment. If she had any doubts then she simply would not have mentioned the McCanns at all in the programme. That's just common sense.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 08, 2014, 10:18:33 AM
I have no idea what the Murdoch connection is - as you appear to know all the details - would you please explain?
No-one forced Dr Leal to give her assessment. If she had any doubts then she simply would not have mentioned the McCanns at all in the programme. That's just common sense.
Is that the same 'common sense' displayed by the Mccanns in leaving their children alone, unprotected and in an unlocked apartment ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 08, 2014, 10:54:11 AM
This is one of my problems as well, Benice. No credible explanations whatsoever.
I am neutral in the whole debate but tend to agree: Why must the so called "Tapas 7" be anything other than what they appear to be at face value? In my book that is a typical group of slightly naive British tourists suddenly out of their depth in a foreign country where they were familiar with neither the language nor the culture.Prepared to do and say just about anything to cover their own backs in order to get home and never go back. Furthermore I have never met 7 people in my life who I would trust enough to help me cover up anything. (Before I get reams of abuse for "naive" anyone who has travelled abroad regularly other than on holiday and to holiday resorts will know what I mean any one who hasn't will not)
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Victoria on January 08, 2014, 11:07:55 AM
I am neutral in the whole debate but tend to agree: Why must the so called "Tapas 7" be anything other than what they appear to be at face value? In my book that is a typical group of slightly naive British tourists suddenly out of their depth in a foreign country where they were familiar with neither the language nor the culture.Prepared to do and say just about anything to cover their own backs in order to get home and never go back. Furthermore I have never met 7 people in my life who I would trust enough to help me cover up anything. (Before I get reams of abuse for "naive" anyone who has travelled abroad regularly other than on holiday and to holiday resorts will know what I mean any one who hasn't will not)
It's the fact that there were seven other people there that night (and not close family but merely holiday chums) that convinces me nothing about Kate and Gerry's behaviour was out of the ordinary. If the McCanns had spent the holiday alone and their daughter disappeared during the night, for example, then perhaps I would have been more suspicious.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 08, 2014, 11:52:16 AM
Thanks for the link Red. Just another conspiracy theory in the making then? Pathetic IMO.
People link dots ...the dots exist.....its a question of does 2 and 2 make four or five......personal opinions thats all....no one can say what the answer is or isnt as its only speculation
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: colombosstogey on January 08, 2014, 12:02:36 PM
I am beginning to think she did wander out and get herself into some sort of grief.
All other scenarios just seem so hard to work out.
It could be possible, she might have been really angry with her parents and decided to go off and hide to teach them a lesson. Kids of 4 are quite capable of thinking and doing things like that, especially if she woke up on her own again.
Little kids can hide in such small places.
My husband last year found a child walking down the middle of the road (lucky enough this was a residential road with sleeping policemen)with just nappy and pj top on, he was about 2 years old. This was about 9.30 on a Sunday morning. He stopped his van wasnt sure what to do, when he saw a women coming haring up the road shouting. It turned out the child had got through the dog flap. Had woken up and just decided to go off and explore.
The saddest thing really though was my husbands first thought was crikey if I pick the child up.......sad isnt it....
BUT children do wonder off, my own daughter did the same years ago, nearly gave me a heart attack.
I dont know the more i read the more i get confused lol....
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 08, 2014, 12:50:01 PM
It's the fact that there were seven other people there that night (and not close family but merely holiday chums) that convinces me nothing about Kate and Gerry's behaviour was out of the ordinary. If the McCanns had spent the holiday alone and their daughter disappeared during the night, for example, then perhaps I would have been more suspicious.
I agree. And would those 7 other people, if they were accomplices to such a heinous crime, just sit back and allow Kate and Gerry to keep pushing for the case to be re-investigated. They would be absolutely terrified by such a dangerous course of action if they were involved - and would be constantly fearful of a knock at the door as the investigation progressed.
Who would agree to live their lives in such a permanent state of anxiety - when they had the choice to breathe a sigh of relief that they had got away with it - and also the choice to allow it to fade away into obscurity by taking no further action.
It's a no brainer as far as I'm concerned.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 01:00:53 PM
Quote from: Benice on Today at 12:51:58 AM
I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body - and how they moved it again 3 weeks later. Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together, came up with such a complicated, imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.
That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends. Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'. Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.
This is one of my problems as well, Benice. No credible explanations whatsoever.
I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body
In a large dumpster bin just after 60-80% was seen carrying an inert child.
and how they moved it again 3 weeks later.
They didn't.
Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together,
They didn't.
came up with such a complicated, imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.
Neither complicated nor inbecillic.
That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends. Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'. Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.
There is nothing complicated or convoluted & it wouldn't take major planning to stick her in a bin.
So, where is your non complicated abduction thesis? Any you make requires the intervention of an 'abductor(s)' of which there is no trace. Whereas my Maddie in the bin theory does not require invention of a third party & does not involve collusion within the entire holiday group.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 08, 2014, 01:09:22 PM
I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body - and how they moved it again 3 weeks later. Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together, came up with such a complicated, imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.
That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends. Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'. Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.
I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body
In a large dumpster bin just after 60-80% was seen carrying an inert child.
and how they moved it again 3 weeks later.
They didn't.
Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together,
They didn't.
came up with such a complicated, imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.
Neither complicated nor inbecillic.
That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends. Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'. Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.
There is nothing complicated or convoluted & it wouldn't take major planning to stick her in a bin.
So, where is your non complicated abduction thesis? Any you make requires the intervention of an 'abductor(s)' of which there is no trace. Whereas my Maddie in the bin theory does not require invention of a third party & does not involve collusion within the entire holiday group.
Occams razor comes to mind here though I find it hard to imagine one of the parents doing that.....unless they had no choice
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 01:16:13 PM
Occams razor comes to mind here though I find it hard to imagine one of the parents doing that.....unless they had no choice
Time was running out, it would have been easy to do physically, a bit harder emotionaly but not impossible. even less so if you are familiar with matters of the living & the dead.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: south of the river on January 08, 2014, 01:23:52 PM
Time was running out, it would have been easy to do physically, a bit harder emotionaly but not impossible. even less so if you are familiar with matters of the living & the dead.
but what about the alerting in the hire car - isn't the dogs giving cadaver alerts the main crux of the evidence against the parents- - unless we discount the hire car one
also weren't all the bins sealed and checked - sorry I don't have a link to that - I just read it somewhere.
It would certainly be one of the first places I would imagine any searcher who suspected foul play and disposal would check
but it is a theory at least
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 08, 2014, 02:16:33 PM
I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body - and how they moved it again 3 weeks later. Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together, came up with such a complicated, imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.
That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends. Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'. Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.
I find it impossible to believe because no-one can come up with a credible explanation of how, when or where they hid her body
In a large dumpster bin just after 60-80% was seen carrying an inert child.
and how they moved it again 3 weeks later.
They didn't.
Or even explain why 9 intelligent people, all apparently colluding together,
They didn't.
came up with such a complicated, imbecilic plan as the one being alleged.
Neither complicated nor inbecillic.
That just makes no sense at all - when it is so obvious that there were far simpler ways of achieving the same ends. Only idiots without a single brain cell amongst them would have failed to realise that fact when they were making their 'plans'. Plans, which incidentally were so complicated and convoluted it would have taken a month of Sundays of practise to remember all the details of what 9 people had to do and say.
There is nothing complicated or convoluted & it wouldn't take major planning to stick her in a bin.
So, where is your non complicated abduction thesis? Any you make requires the intervention of an 'abductor(s)' of which there is no trace. Whereas my Maddie in the bin theory does not require invention of a third party & does not involve collusion within the entire holiday group.
I'm not sure I agree with everything you're proposing here, wonderfulspam - but you have at least posited an explanation. A rarity.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 08, 2014, 02:45:04 PM
if the PJ or SY do have any evidence to back up their involvement then I wish they would get round to it. I would be more than happy to change my views if presented with such scenarios
As such I have yet to see anything that persuades me of How, why, when , where and who etc nada
I appreciate you have presented the she was dumped in a bin theory - it could be true - but I have yet to see anything that would explain why , how and when and of course who
so until then I still lean towards my gut feel that they are innocent in her disposal - and after 6 nearly 7 years I cant see a smoking gun suddenly appearing
They are not going to say anything along those line unless they have conclusive evidence to back their statements up.
Irrespective of what they say publicly, we have absolutely no idea where the investigations are taking them - and quite properly so.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 02:49:44 PM
if the PJ or SY do have any evidence to back up their involvement then I wish they would get round to it. I would be more than happy to change my views if presented with such scenarios
As such I have yet to see anything that persuades me of How, why, when , where and who etc nada
I appreciate you have presented the she was dumped in a bin theory - it could be true - but I have yet to see anything that would explain why , how and when and of course who
so until then I still lean towards my gut feel that they are innocent in her disposal - and after 6 nearly 7 years I cant see a smoking gun suddenly appearing
but I have yet to see anything that would explain why , how and when and of course who
Why?
She was dead.
How?
Carrying her to a bin and chucking her in it.
When?
Around 10pm 3rd May 2007.
Who?
Smithman.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 08, 2014, 08:04:28 PM
Accidents happen...fatal accidents are rare...why the cover up ...fake abduction...why stay in Portugal...why start a fund...why employ detectives...why work to get the fund reopened...non of it makes sense
maddie was seen by several people on the 3rd
why the cover up
Panic initially, maybe not wanting their own parents and family to know they fu**ed up.
fake abduction...
People believe it.
why stay in Portugal
Keeping up appearance.
why start a fund
Because people were keen to donate money.
why employ detectives
Divertion & keeping up appearance.
...why work to get the fund reopened
?
maddie was seen by several people on the 3rd
Who?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 08, 2014, 08:56:42 PM
Panic initially, maybe not wanting their own parents and family to know they fu**ed up.
fake abduction...
People believe it.
why stay in Portugal
Keeping up appearance.
why start a fund
Because people were keen to donate money.
why employ detectives
Divertion & keeping up appearance.
...why work to get the fund reopened
?
maddie was seen by several people on the 3rd
Who?
maddie was seen by several people on may 3rd...its been discussed at length...your theory makes a lot of suppositions...has no evidence to support it and is just a timeline made to fit...people could make up others but you would have to suspend reality to believe all these things..from an accidental death...which would get lots of sympathy to multimilluion pound fraudsters...10 years...so the theory makes no sense to me
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 09:00:02 PM
maddie was seen by several people on may 3rd...its been discussed at length...your theory makes a lot of suppositions...has no evidence to support it and is just a timeline made to fit...people could make up others but you would have to suspend reality to believe all these things..from an accidental death...which would get lots of sympathy to multimilluion pound fraudsters...10 years...so the theory makes no sense to me
your theory makes a lot of suppositions...
And the abduction theory does not?
has no evidence to support it
And the abduction theory has?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 08, 2014, 09:03:16 PM
just pointing out that abduction is ruled out by many for being to unlikely but you post a scenario that is more unlikely...but its up to you...at least you have proposed something
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 09:13:55 PM
just pointing out that abduction is ruled out by many for being to unlikely but you post a scenario that is more unlikely...but its up to you...at least you have proposed something
but you post a scenario that is more unlikely...
Because abductions happen but deaths don't?
I'm pretty sure more people have died than have been abducted from their beds.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: ferryman on January 08, 2014, 09:19:34 PM
Making the point that statistics tell you nothing.
There's only one instance of where a child was abducted from the ground-floor flat of a bath while the whole family was at home
But it happened.
And Peter Voisey is behind bars, serving time for that crime.
Why compartmentalise statistics even further than they have to be....abducted from their own home should suffice.......and its a fact that more chldren have fatal accidents in the home than are abducted from there....
Ps I didnt know baths had their own floors!
8)--))
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: ferryman on January 08, 2014, 10:08:45 PM
Why compartmentalise statistics even further than they have to be....abducted from their own home should suffice.......and its a fact that more chldren have fatal accidents in the home than are abducted from there....
Ps I didnt know baths had their own floors!
8)--))
Carry on mocking at the expense of victims, if that's what rocks your boat ...
Silly knee jerk drama queen reaction...annoyed at my pointng out your backward text (mocking YOU and not any victim and it was only humorous) and not answering the main point...yawn.....emotional blackmail and outfarming guilt never gets you anywhere....
I suppose accusing martin grime of doctoring his cv to get more business isnt mocking the victims whose remains and or demise the dog found! and gave closure to their families!
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 08, 2014, 10:42:15 PM
There are two nannies who say they saw her on the 3rd, one briefly during the day, Charlotte Pennington both in her police statement and on a tv documentary, the other was her main carer Cat Baker, there is a also cook and another tapas bar employee who said they saw her but their accounts are not so clear/reliable one of them retracted his statement I think and said he couldnt be sure...i dont personally put much credence in the died a day before/two days before/more or some theorists...its stretching it?..anyway those are the independent witnesses....as for the tapas 7 apart from David Payne I dont think anyone saw her on the Thursday really....a couple of accounts saying they did dont match actual events and contradict other tapas group statements....funny one, but I have no reason to disbelieve the nannies
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 26, 2014, 12:03:02 AM
There are two nannies who say they saw her on the 3rd, one briefly during the day, Charlotte Pennington both in her police statement and on a tv documentary, the other was her main carer Cat Baker, there is a also cook and another tapas bar employee who said they saw her but their accounts are not so clear/reliable one of them retracted his statement I think and said he couldnt be sure...i dont personally put much credence in the died a day before/two days before/more or some theorists...its stretching it?..anyway those are the independent witnesses....as for the tapas 7 apart from David Payne I dont think anyone saw her on the Thursday really....a couple of accounts saying they did dont match actual events and contradict other tapas group statements....funny one, but I have no reason to disbelieve the nannies
There's also BOD's all pink, blond and beautiful, that says it all.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: ferryman on January 26, 2014, 04:12:44 PM
Good grief!
Catriana Baker took Madeline down to to the beach on the Thursday ...
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 27, 2014, 01:57:40 PM
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
To take an extreme example, as someone pointed out somewhere or other, what were the statistics that the Twin Towers would have been hit by two commercial flights deliberately flown into them?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 27, 2014, 02:20:05 PM
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
To take an extreme example, as someone pointed out somewhere or other, what were the statistics that the Twin Towers would have been hit by two commercial flights deliberately flown into them?
This is my view too, Carana.
We can talk endlessly about how likely an abduction was but the reality is that Madeleine, sadly, has vanished off the face of the earth. That is an exceptionally unlikely event yet undeniably it has taken place.
Therefore the question of doubting an abduction on the grounds of unlikelihood is moot.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 27, 2014, 02:28:43 PM
We can talk endlessly about how likely an abduction was but the reality is that Madeleine, sadly, has vanished off the face of the earth. That is an exceptionally unlikely event yet undeniably it has taken place.
Therefore the question of doubting an abduction on the grounds of unlikelihood is moot.
Of course it is. it is highly likely Maddie was abducted...either from the appt or outside the appt if she managed to get out
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: icabodcrane on January 27, 2014, 02:39:59 PM
We can talk endlessly about how likely an abduction was but the reality is that Madeleine, sadly, has vanished off the face of the earth. That is an exceptionally unlikely event yet undeniably it has taken place.
Therefore the question of doubting an abduction on the grounds of unlikelihood is moot.
We are discussing statisical likelihood
A child was reported missing by her parents, and never seen alive again
If statistics suggest that parental involvement in the disappearance is more likely than abduction then we must accept that
That does not mean that Madeleine is not likely to have been abducted ... just that statistically the likelihood is not high
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 27, 2014, 03:15:25 PM
So you keep saying. So putting your money where your mouth is let's see your calculation to support you claim?
I've answered this question many times. if you look at children harmed by family members you will see that they are dysfunctional families....with many other issues. Whats more several other people would have to be complicit in the act. To quote general statistics is plain wrong
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: icabodcrane on January 27, 2014, 03:36:07 PM
I've only skimmed through this thread and must have missed the statisical study you referenced that suggests children who are reported missing by parents are most likely to have been 'abducted'
Can you point me to it please ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on January 27, 2014, 03:45:42 PM
I've answered this question many times. if you look at children harmed by family members you will see that they are dysfunctional families....with many other issues. Whats more several other people would have to be complicit in the act. To quote general statistics is plain wrong
Yeah thought you wouldn't be able to
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 27, 2014, 03:51:39 PM
We can talk endlessly about how likely an abduction was but the reality is that Madeleine, sadly, has vanished off the face of the earth. That is an exceptionally unlikely event yet undeniably it has taken place.
Therefore the question of doubting an abduction on the grounds of unlikelihood is moot.
Instead of talking endlessly about how rare but not impossible is an abduction from bed by strangers absolutely without precedent in Europe, after almost 7 years of running behind an abductor in unprecedented multiple ways, why not starting to be rational ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 27, 2014, 03:55:04 PM
where are icad's satistics...or perhaps you are the sort of person who sees the general statistics and thinks that children should be taken from their parents and given to strangers because they are more likely to be harmed by their parents...yes that's probably the way you think
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 27, 2014, 04:31:54 PM
where are icad's satistics...or perhaps you are the sort of person who sees the general statistics and thinks that children should be taken from their parents and given to strangers because they are more likely to be harmed by their parents...yes that's probably the way you think
Well, Kate helpfully supplies statistics in the back of her book Madeleine. On page 378: 'The majority of completed child abductions are parental/family abductions, with 16 per cent involving abduction by a stranger.
So, according to the statistics supplied by Kate (source of the statistics is on Page 378 for those interested) three is a 16% chance that Madeleine's abduction was at the hands of total strangers and an 86% chance that her abduction was carried out by her parents or family.
Given those statistics, you would think that the McCanns would want to co-operate fully with any police enquiry in order to rule themselves out. That would obviously mean answering all police questions; taking part in re-enactments if necessary; taking a lie detector test and so on.
It would presumably not involve hiring libel lawyers, dodgy detectives, extradition lawyers, media spin doctors and reputation managers. Not to mention suing the detective who was in charge of the case. Or, within a very short space of time, setting up a private company to raise money.
One would also imagine that parents whose child had disappeared and who had no prior knowledge of what had happened would try to keep a relatively open mind. That would mean exploring a number of possibilities as to what might have happened including Madeleine wandering off. It would not involve jumping to an immediate conclusion about what had happened.
Every aspect of their behaviour and most of what they have said implies they know what happened to Madeleine, in my opinion.
Their actio
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 27, 2014, 04:35:00 PM
We can talk endlessly about how likely an abduction was but the reality is that Madeleine, sadly, has vanished off the face of the earth. That is an exceptionally unlikely event yet undeniably it has taken place.
Therefore the question of doubting an abduction on the grounds of unlikelihood is moot.
If you mean abduction in terms of removal from the apartment, then I agree. She is definitely not in the apartment.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 27, 2014, 04:35:59 PM
So, to answer your question Davel, statistically there is an 84% (I think I mistakenly wrote 86% in the post above) chance that Madeleine's parents and/or family were involved in her abduction.
That is according to the statistics helpfully supplied by Madeleine's mother in the book Madeleine. I imagine that Kate would have considered the source of this statistics reliable.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 27, 2014, 04:49:48 PM
So, to answer your question Davel, statistically there is an 84% (I think I mistakenly wrote 86% in the post above) chance that Madeleine's parents and/or family were involved in her abduction.
That is according to the statistics helpfully supplied by Madeleine's mother in the book Madeleine. I imagine that Kate would have considered the source of this statistics reliable.
im just getting the hang of the way posters on here interpret the statistics...so basically Maddie was safer on her OWN....rather than with her family
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: icabodcrane on January 27, 2014, 04:54:01 PM
Instead of talking endlessly about how rare but not impossible is an abduction from bed by strangers absolutely without precedent in Europe, after almost 7 years of running behind an abductor in unprecedented multiple ways, why not starting to be rational ?
Try listening to some sense...a little girl was abducted from her bath while her mother was in the house...that had never happened before...but it happenned
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 27, 2014, 05:07:42 PM
So, to answer your question Davel, statistically there is an 84% (I think I mistakenly wrote 86% in the post above) chance that Madeleine's parents and/or family were involved in her abduction.
That is according to the statistics helpfully supplied by Madeleine's mother in the book Madeleine. I imagine that Kate would have considered the source of this statistics reliable.
Absolutely not...you understand how to read the statistics but you don't understand how to apply them..thats probably why you have got things so wrong
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: icabodcrane on January 27, 2014, 05:12:44 PM
You now have the choice of whether to be gracious in defeat ... or not
its quite interesting the way you are behaving. You have decided that you are to judge me when you have a very poor grasp of statistics...just as you have decided you should judge the McCanns when you have a poor grasp of the facts
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: icabodcrane on January 27, 2014, 05:25:11 PM
its quite interesting the way you are behaving. You have decided that you are to judge me when you have a very poor grasp of statistics...just as you have decided you should judge the McCanns when you have a poor grasp of the facts
j rob directed you to Kate McCann's book in which she references Home Office statistics quoting a 16% figure for stranger abductions ... that was when you lost the debate
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 27, 2014, 05:28:05 PM
j rob directed you to Kate McCann's book in which she references Home Office statistics quoting a 16% figure for stranger abductions ... that was when you lost the debate
Wrong again...Kate quoted a well known figure...she didnt say it applied to Maddies case. As SY has stated you cannot apply general statistics to every case...now you have lost the argument..please be gracious in defeat
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 27, 2014, 05:35:35 PM
j rob directed you to Kate McCann's book in which she references Home Office statistics quoting a 16% figure for stranger abductions ... that was when you lost the debate
let me try and help you understand another way...
April Jones...Maddie McCann..Mikaeel Kular....all at one stage potential abductions..in every case was the statistics for parental involvement 86%..no...they are all individual cases..anyone who thinks they are all 86% is bonkers..as you would now probably agree
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 27, 2014, 06:01:10 PM
im just getting the hang of the way posters on here interpret the statistics...so basically Maddie was safer on her OWN....rather than with her family
I think it is you who is having a problem interpreting statistics. This statistic does not refer to the safety of children on their own.
It refers to 'completed child abductions'. Statistically speaking, there is an 84% chance that the parents or family are involved.
This means that out of 100 completed child abductions, 84 will have involved the parents and 16 will involve abduction by a stranger.
There is no evidence to support the view that Madeleine was abducted by a stranger. We only have the McCanns and their family and friends word on this. And given that, statistically speaking, 84% of abductions involve family, it is probably not wise to 100% trust the words of the family of the abducted child.
Especially when the family and friends claim to KNOW what happened despite allegedly not being there when it happened.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 27, 2014, 06:12:49 PM
April Jones...Maddie McCann..Mikaeel Kular....all at one stage potential abductions..in every case was the statistics for parental involvement 86%..no...they are all individual cases..anyone who thinks they are all 86% is bonkers..as you would now probably agree
No, the statistics do not apply to every case. A small minority of cases do not involve parents and you have highlighted some of these. The McCanns would like us to believe that Madeleine's disappearance falls into this small category. But, unfortunately, their actions and behaviours do not support this.
There is no evidence for a stranger abduction in Madeleine's case, and there is incriminating behaviour from the McCanns and their friends.
Therefore, in my opinion, the disappearance of Madeleine is likely to fall into the 84% statistic.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 27, 2014, 06:20:02 PM
No, the statistics do not apply to every case. A small minority of cases do not involve parents and you have highlighted some of these. The McCanns would like us to believe that Madeleine's disappearance falls into this small category. But, unfortunately, their actions and behaviours do not support this.
There is no evidence for a stranger abduction in Madeleine's case, and there is incriminating behaviour from the McCanns and their friends.
Therefore, in my opinion, the disappearance of Madeleine is likely to fall into the 84% statistic.
Now we are getting somewhere...so its only your opinion
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 27, 2014, 06:23:23 PM
No, the statistics do not apply to every case. A small minority of cases do not involve parents and you have highlighted some of these. The McCanns would like us to believe that Madeleine's disappearance falls into this small category. But, unfortunately, their actions and behaviours do not support this.There is no evidence for a stranger abduction in Madeleine's case, and there is incriminating behaviour from the McCanns and their friends.
Therefore, in my opinion, the disappearance of Madeleine is likely to fall into the 84% statistic.
Only in your opinion. IMO their actions and behaviour completely support an abduction. That is also the opinion of SY. There is evidence of stranger abduction - the fact that you don't want to believe it doesn't negate it.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 27, 2014, 06:38:02 PM
Now we are getting somewhere...so its only your opinion
Well, no.....actually I think you will find that a great many people, including some members of the police, believe that the McCanns had something to do with their daughter's disappearance.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 27, 2014, 06:39:40 PM
Only in your opinion. IMO their actions and behaviour completely support an abduction. That is also the opinion of SY. There is evidence of stranger abduction - the fact that you don't want to believe it doesn't negate it.
It is only the McCann's opinion that their daughter was abducted by a stranger. There is no evidence to support this theory. Whether the police believe them or not, I have no idea. I would like to believe that there minds are open which is what you would hope with a criminal investigation.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 27, 2014, 06:54:59 PM
It is only the McCann's opinion that their daughter was abducted by a stranger. There is no evidence to support this theory. Whether the police believe them or not, I have no idea. I would like to believe that there minds are open which is what you would hope with a criminal investigation.
That is precisely the point.
No evidence of abduction and if there was no abduction.....................
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 27, 2014, 06:58:22 PM
It is only the McCann's opinion that their daughter was abducted by a stranger. There is no evidence to support this theory. Whether the police believe them or not, I have no idea. I would like to believe that there minds are open which is what you would hope with a criminal investigation.
SY do believe them - unless you think they are part of some huge conspiracy? And what would be the reason for that?
It's nonsense to say there is no evidence. The shutters/window in Madeleine's bedroom were opened by someone - and it wasn't the McCanns or their friends. Therefore it was a stranger. That is what SY believe - otherwise they would not have ruled out the McCanns and their friends from the enquiry.
Those are the facts. Unlike us, SY have all the professionally translated files, the expertise and experience of over 30 police officers and the ability to interview people whom we can't, and therefore know vastly more about this case that we can ever hope to. How people can keep ignoring that monumental fact of life is beyond me.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 27, 2014, 07:02:50 PM
No evidence of abduction and if there was no abduction.....................
There was no evidence of an abduction in the Ben Needham case - and only the family's word for what happened - and if there was no abduction..............?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 27, 2014, 07:20:37 PM
There was no evidence of an abduction in the Ben Needham case - and only the family's word for what happened - and if there was no abduction..............?
Shall we compare the behaviour of the mccanns who on several successive nights went to booze and eat, with the Needhams behaviour?
So Benice, what do you think happened to Ben ?
Was it :
Mr. Spotty; Mr. No Face ; Mr. Swarthy Faced Johnny Foreigner; Mr. or Mrs. Burglar; or perhaps Mr. Sardine Muncher ?
The field is yours. 8**8:/:
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 27, 2014, 07:22:38 PM
It is only the McCann's opinion that their daughter was abducted by a stranger. There is no evidence to support this theory. Whether the police believe them or not, I have no idea. I would like to believe that there minds are open which is what you would hope with a criminal investigation.
you have stated that the interpretation of the statistics is merely "your opinion". that's fine but dont you and icad pretend its fact
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 27, 2014, 07:24:20 PM
Strawmen notwithstanding you still lost the debate with j.rob squire. Best not flog a dead horse old chap its embarrassing to watch it.
not really..if you think I lost the debate when he admitted he wasn't quoting statistics but his own opinion then you haven't a clue. He actually proved my point if you were able to understand the posts...obviously you dont
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 27, 2014, 08:42:05 PM
No, the statistics do not apply to every case. A small minority of cases do not involve parents and you have highlighted some of these. The McCanns would like us to believe that Madeleine's disappearance falls into this small category. But, unfortunately, their actions and behaviours do not support this.
There is no evidence for a stranger abduction in Madeleine's case, and there is incriminating behaviour from the McCanns and their friends.
Therefore, in my opinion, the disappearance of Madeleine is likely to fall into the 84% statistic.
There you are...a small minority do not involve the parents...it is my opinion and SY that this applies to the McCanns and no one can prove me wrong
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 27, 2014, 08:43:49 PM
Shall we compare the behaviour of the mccanns who on several successive nights went to booze and eat, with the Needhams behaviour?
So Benice, what do you think happened to Ben ?
Was it :
Mr. Spotty; Mr. No Face ; Mr. Swarthy Faced Johnny Foreigner; Mr. or Mrs. Burglar; or perhaps Mr. Sardine Muncher ? the McCanns behaviour makes an abduction more likely The field is yours. 8**8:/:
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 27, 2014, 08:48:08 PM
not really..if you think I lost the debate when he admitted he wasn't quoting statistics but his own opinion then you haven't a clue. He actually proved my point if you were able to understand the posts...obviously you dont
He used Kate's statistics?
In the case of a missing child with no further evidence the probability is that the parents or family is involved in 84 out of 100 cases.
Simple really.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Cariad on January 27, 2014, 08:51:17 PM
Actually there is evidence of abduction but no proof...you always get that wrong
Just like the evidence of the dogs.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 27, 2014, 09:16:28 PM
In Portugal, in 2010, 41 children went missing, among whom 10 abducted by their father or mother. The 31 other left either their family (conflictual situation) or an institution. Abduction by stranger = 0 (BTW, in Portugal there never was an abduction from bed). http://www.dn.pt/inicio/portugal/interior.aspx?content_id=1949937
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 27, 2014, 09:37:18 PM
In Portugal, in 2010, 41 children went missing, among whom 10 abducted by their father or mother. The 31 other left either their family (conflictual situation) or an institution. Abduction by stranger = 0 (BTW, in Portugal there never was an abduction from bed). http://www.dn.pt/inicio/portugal/interior.aspx?content_id=1949937
has there been an abduction from a bath
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 27, 2014, 10:33:45 PM
Shall we compare the behaviour of the mccanns who on several successive nights went to booze and eat, with the Needhams behaviour?
So Benice, what do you think happened to Ben ?
Was it :
Mr. Spotty; Mr. No Face ; Mr. Swarthy Faced Johnny Foreigner; Mr. or Mrs. Burglar; or perhaps Mr. Sardine Muncher ?
The field is yours. 8**8:/:
Even though Ben was abducted when he was unsupervised and no evidence of an abduction was found - and we only have the family's word for what happened - I totally believe them - and for the same reasons why I believe Madeleine's parents.
They are two ordinary families who both had a child abducted in a foreign country, neither of whom have been found, and both families are still looking for them.
IIRC the Needhams have shown their support for the McCanns - so maybe you would like to sneer at them too.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Cariad on January 27, 2014, 10:34:30 PM
There's no evidence whatsoever of that and the police, even the best on the planet, bases its belief on facts, not on words for facts.
BINGO
Uncorroborated hearsay at best..
so, apart from the "evidence" the shutters and windows were open, what other evidence is there? Of an abduction dont recall any at all.....look forwrd to reading it tomorrow
@)(++(*
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 28, 2014, 12:01:42 AM
SY do believe them - unless you think they are part of some huge conspiracy? And what would be the reason for that?
It's nonsense to say there is no evidence. The shutters/window in Madeleine's bedroom were opened by someone - and it wasn't the McCanns or their friends. Therefore it was a stranger. That is what SY believe - otherwise they would not have ruled out the McCanns and their friends from the enquiry.
Those are the facts. Unlike us, SY have all the professionally translated files, the expertise and experience of over 30 police officers and the ability to interview people whom we can't, and therefore know vastly more about this case that we can ever hope to. How people can keep ignoring that monumental fact of life is beyond me.
Where is the evidence that Scotland Yard believe the McCanns?
The Portugese police didn't believe them. There is evidence for that.
Is this your evidence of a stranger abduction: ' The shutters/window in Madeleine's bedroom were opened by someone - and it wasn't the McCanns or their friends. Therefore it was a stranger.' ...you cannot be serious......
Is that it?? The McCanns and their friends were pretty confused about the shutters/doors that evening - was the door locked, was it not locked, were the shutters forced open, were they not forced open? Did they enter the apartment through the door or through the shutters?
How do you know it wasn't the McCanns or their friends? What evidence do you have to support this?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 28, 2014, 12:06:47 AM
Even though Ben was abducted when he was unsupervised and no evidence of an abduction was found - and we only have the family's word for what happened - I totally believe them - and for the same reasons why I believe Madeleine's parents.
They are two ordinary families who both had a child abducted in a foreign country, neither of whom have been found, and both families are still looking for them.
IIRC the Needhams have shown their support for the McCanns - so maybe you would like to sneer at them too.
Yes, I totally believe the Needham family. It is very sweet of them to support the McCanns. However, the Needhams did not hire dodgy detectives, phone Sky News, hire reputation managers, extradition lawyers and mediia spin doctors plus set up a limited company to fund their legal fees within a few weeks of their son going missing.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: icabodcrane on January 28, 2014, 12:09:36 AM
Where is the evidence that Scotland Yard believe the McCanns?
The Portugese police didn't believe them. There is evidence for that.
Is this your evidence of a stranger abduction: ' The shutters/window in Madeleine's bedroom were opened by someone - and it wasn't the McCanns or their friends. Therefore it was a stranger.' ...you cannot be serious......
Is that it?? The McCanns and their friends were pretty confused about the shutters/doors that evening - was the door locked, was it not locked, were the shutters forced open, were they not forced open? Did they enter the apartment through the door or through the shutters?
How do you know it wasn't the McCanns or their friends? What evidence do you have to support this?
I am begining to suspect that Scotland Yard are being cagey ( and that their "The McCanns and their friends are not suspects" may be part of that caginess )
The reason I say that, is because there appears to a rift between the McCanns and Scotland Yard at the moment, with the McCanns almost 'in denial' about Andy Redwoods dismissal of their chosen prime suspect ( Tannerman )
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 28, 2014, 12:22:42 AM
Where is the evidence that Scotland Yard believe the McCanns?
The Portugese police didn't believe them. There is evidence for that.
Is this your evidence of a stranger abduction: ' The shutters/window in Madeleine's bedroom were opened by someone - and it wasn't the McCanns or their friends. Therefore it was a stranger.' ...you cannot be serious......
Is that it?? The McCanns and their friends were pretty confused about the shutters/doors that evening - was the door locked, was it not locked, were the shutters forced open, were they not forced open? Did they enter the apartment through the door or through the shutters?
How do you know it wasn't the McCanns or their friends? What evidence do you have to support this?
SY have publically stated that the McCanns and their friends are NOT suspects or even persons of interest. From the evidence they have examined they believe an abduction by a stranger took place and it is on those grounds that the case is being conducted. They are keeping the McCanns updated. If you don't even know that much then there is no point in further discussion.
Do you think SY are in the business of conning the British Public and are conducting some huge conspiracy which involves pulling the wool over the public's eyes and lying to them to the extent of even making the Crimewatch programme? They would lose all credibility if they did that. No-one would ever believe or trust anything they said again.
The whole idea is crazy. Common sense please!
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Lyall on January 28, 2014, 12:33:05 AM
SY have publically stated that the McCanns and their friends are NOT suspects or even persons of interest. From the evidence they have examined they believe an abduction by a stranger took place and it is on those grounds that the case is being conducted. They are keeping the McCanns updated. If you don't even know that much then there is no point in further discussion.
Do you think SY are in the business of conning the British Public and are conducting some huge conspiracy which involves pulling the wool over the public's eyes and lying to them to the extent of even making the Crimewatch programme? They would lose all credibility if they did that. No-one would ever believe or trust anything they said again.
The whole idea is crazy. Common sense please!
No, Benice, Redwood said that to TV reporters to avoid controversy. They have yet to say anything officially. We have no idea what they actually think.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 28, 2014, 12:33:40 AM
I'm not much of a mathematician, but if the vast majority of those 86% of completed child abductions involve custody battles and other family disputes, and most of the rest involve cases of abuse, then the percentage chance of the McCanns being involved is much, much lower.
We know for a fact that there was no custody battle going on between the McCanns; nor was there any evidence of abuse.
Therefore we return to the important fact that statistics do not apply in the individual case, a point I am not going to elaborate on here as it has already been well established and is also a matter of common sense.
If we knew absolutely nothing about the Madeleine McCann case; if the words Gerry and Kate McCann were just names on a piece of paper to us, then we would cite statistical chance.
Knowing more, however, we are able to narrow matters down and form a (slightly) clearer view.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 28, 2014, 12:41:55 AM
Yes, I totally believe the Needham family. It is very sweet of them to support the McCanns. However, the Needhams did not hire dodgy detectives, phone Sky News, hire reputation managers, extradition lawyers and mediia spin doctors plus set up a limited company to fund their legal fees within a few weeks of their son going missing.
The McCanns did not phone Sky News. They hired PIs in good faith - they do not have the ability to see into the future. They did not hire a 'reputation manager'or spin doctors. The public by their own volition wanted to contribute money - the McCanns had to deal with that - and instead of having the money going into their own accounts they set up a fund which the law said could not be registered as a charity. They employed lawers because they were in a foreign country and need legal advice over several matters. The original legal costs were mainly associated with setting up the Fund etc.
If the Needhams had had the same support and media /public interest in their case - I have no doubt they would have done the same. And if the Internet had been as prolifically used then as it is now - the Needhams would also have been subjected to exactly the same vile treatment from some people as the McCanns have been IMO.
ETA - And the Needhams don't support the McCanns because they are 'sweet' people - they do it because they believe the parents.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 28, 2014, 01:04:54 AM
I'm not much of a mathematician, but if the vast majority of those 86% of completed child abductions involve custody battles and other family disputes, and most of the rest involve cases of abuse, then the percentage chance of the McCanns being involved is much, much lower.
We know for a fact that there was no custody battle going on between the McCanns; nor was there any evidence of abuse.
Therefore we return to the important fact that statistics do not apply in the individual case, a point I am not going to elaborate on here as it has already been well established and is also a matter of common sense.
If we knew absolutely nothing about the Madeleine McCann case; if the words Gerry and Kate McCann were just names on a piece of paper to us, then we would cite statistical chance.
Knowing more, however, we are able to narrow matters down and form a (slightly) clearer view.
I agree. Some people talk as if the word 'rare' means the same as 'never'. Sandy Davidson was abducted in Scotland over 30 years ago. Ben Needham was abducted over 20 years ago. Madeleine was abducted over 6 years ago. That is what is meant by 'rare' IMO.
I also agree that we would have to know nothing about the background/history of the McCanns as parents to include them in 'general' statistics.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 28, 2014, 01:28:18 AM
Clarence Mitchell dealt with the press on their behalf. Do you really think the McCanns could have coped with hundreds of reporters waiting to pounce on them every day. They would have no knowledge at all on how to deal with the media - and their lives would have been a misery. I believe his fee was paid for by a benefactor?
CMis a professional spin doctor and you would have to be as an adult living in naivety ignorance or cloud cuckoo land to not know so..,.and they also hired reputation managers as per my previous post, in repy to yours, this post of yours means nothing, as you are backtracking onfacts, nite benice sleep tite lolol
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 28, 2014, 01:34:30 AM
The McCanns did not phone Sky News. They hired PIs in good faith - they do not have the ability to see into the future. They did not hire a 'reputation manager'or spin doctors. The public by their own volition wanted to contribute money - the McCanns had to deal with that - and instead of having the money going into their own accounts they set up a fund which the law said could not be registered as a charity. They employed lawers because they were in a foreign country and need legal advice over several matters. The original legal costs were mainly associated with setting up the Fund etc.
If the Needhams had had the same support and media /public interest in their case - I have no doubt they would have done the same. And if the Internet had been as prolifically used then as it is now - the Needhams would also have been subjected to exactly the same vile treatment from some people as the McCanns have been IMO.
ETA - And the Needhams don't support the McCanns because they are 'sweet' people - they do it because they believe the parents.
Yes they are sweet people because they believe the McCircus/McMess/McMoneyspinning........
I believed the McMucks for quite a long time. But I don't any more.
Of course the Needhams wouldn't have done the same - what a stupid suggestion. So they would surround themselves with people with links to organised crime?
Yeah, right.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 28, 2014, 01:40:27 AM
Yes they are sweet people because they believe the McCircus/McMess/McMoneyspinning........
I believed the McMucks for quite a long time. But I don't any more.
Of course the Needhams wouldn't have done the same - what a stupid suggestion. So they would surround themselves with people with links to organised crime?
Yeah, right.
The McCanns did not knowingly employ people with links to organised crime - that's a preposterous suggestion.
They became just one of several victims of a conman.
Once again - you use hindsight - which the McCanns did not have. Why do you keep insisting they can see into the future.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 28, 2014, 02:33:22 AM
Shall we compare the behaviour of the mccanns who on several successive nights went to booze and eat, with the Needhams behaviour? -snipped-
So the Mccanns went into the garden for dinner and drank less than 4 bottles of wine between them over their dinner
I seem to remember that the Needhams were eating in their garden abroad. Do YOU KNOW how much, or how little, they drank? Do YOU know how close they kept Ben to them?
I am sure that being a loving family, like The Mccanns, the Needhams were confident that their eye was sufficiently on Ben that no harm could come to him, but was he always within 50 metres? Was he always in full view?
It has been some time since I read the Ben Needham reports and maybe i am wrong. Please correct me if you are sure that they had nothing to drink and you are sure that Ben was always close and always watched. I dont think he can have been, cos he was abducted. I am thankful that you <<< inappropriate comment edited out >>> do not have it in for the Needhams as you seem to have it in for The Mccanns.
Both were loving, caring, families, in what seemed safe circumstances, to have been targetted by some monster.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 07:39:19 AM
Even though Ben was abducted when he was unsupervised and no evidence of an abduction was found - and we only have the family's word for what happened - I totally believe them - and for the same reasons why I believe Madeleine's parents.
They are two ordinary families who both had a child abducted in a foreign country, neither of whom have been found, and both families are still looking for them.
IIRC the Needhams have shown their support for the McCanns - so maybe you would like to sneer at them too.
So Benice, evidence of abduction ?
davel couldn't provide any.
Why do you need to try and hide behind the skirts of the Needhams ?
Does it make you feel better ?
Most people believe the Needhams, but don't believe the Mccanns.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 08:00:08 AM
Why do you need to try and hide behind the skirts of the Needhams ?
Does it make you feel better ?
Most people believe the Needhams, but don't believe the Mccanns.
Couldn't reply last night..had to look after my young children
Evidence, broadly construed, is anything presented in support of an assertion. This support may be strong or weak. The strongest type of evidence is that which provides direct proof of the truth of an assertion. At the other extreme is evidence that is merely consistent with an assertion but does not rule out other, contradictory assertions, as in circumstantial evidence.
So you see...what you mean Stephen is that there is no proof of abduction...there certainly is evidence although it is weak and satisfies the definition in red
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 08:04:46 AM
Couldn't reply last night..had to look after my young children
Evidence, broadly construed, is anything presented in support of an assertion. This support may be strong or weak. The strongest type of evidence is that which provides direct proof of the truth of an assertion. At the other extreme is evidence that is merely consistent with an assertion but does not rule out other, contradictory assertions, as in circumstantial evidence.
So you see...what you mean Stephen is that there is no proof of abduction...there certainly is evidence although it is weak and satisfies the definition in red
You really need to stop googling.
Now where is evidence of abduction ?
Others asked the same question.
P.S. A brief reminder, yet again. A child being carried is not evidence of abduction.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 08:11:28 AM
So the Mccanns went into the garden for dinner and drank less than 4 bottles of wine between them over their dinner
I seem to remember that the Needhams were eating in their garden abroad. Do YOU KNOW how much, or how little, they drank? Do YOU know how close they kept Ben to them?
I am sure that being a loving family, like The Mccanns, the Needhams were confident that their eye was sufficiently on Ben that no harm could come to him, but was he always within 50 metres? Was he always in full view?
It has been some time since I read the Ben Needham reports and maybe i am wrong. Please correct me if you are sure that they had nothing to drink and you are sure that Ben was always close and always watched. I dont think he can have been, cos he was abducted. I am thankful that you and your ilk do not have it in for the Needhams as you seem to have it in for The Mccanns.
Both were loving, caring, families, in what seemed safe circumstances, to have been targetted by some monster.
No garden sadie.
They were at the Tapas , but you know that.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 08:13:32 AM
P.S. A brief reminder, yet again. A child being carried is not evidence of abduction.
Look here Stephen, Kate say's she was abducted, so does Gerry. If that is evidence enough for the 'support group' then it should be evidence enough for you too.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 08:26:08 AM
Give me a definition of evidence first to show you understand the word..ive given mine...you cant debate without ground rules...we need an accepted definition of evidence
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 08:28:06 AM
Look here Stephen, Kate say's she was abducted, so does Gerry. If that is evidence enough for the 'support group' then it should be evidence enough for you too.
@)(++(* @)(++(* 8)--))
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 08:28:56 AM
Give me a definition of evidence first to show you understand the word..ive given mine...you cant debate without ground rules...we need an accepted definition of evidence
i.e. There isn't any.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 08:36:38 AM
isn't any what..evidence ..there is..its just that you don't understand the word...how many times do I have to tell you...whats YOUR definition of evidence..you haven't got one
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 08:40:11 AM
isn't any what..evidence ..there is..its just that you don't understand the word...how many times do I have to tell you...whats YOUR definition of evidence..you haven't got one
Your wasting time davel.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 08:42:40 AM
P.S. A brief reminder, yet again. A child being carried is not evidence of abduction.
It may not be evidence per se, but it is a strong pointer, having Matt commenting that at 9.30ish, when he checked the Mccann children, he thought a little light was coming through the window. For ANY light to come through, the shutters had to be open at that time.
So pointers for your perusal 1. Gerry checked at about 9.10. All appeared well. 2. Jane witnessed a rapidly moving man carrying a child dressed like Madeleine ... and of the same age group. That was at about 9.15ish 3. This man kept his head averted away from Jane all the time, it seems. Strange ! 4. The way this man was carrying the child was exhausting, so they had NOT come far. 5. Mrs Caroline Carpenter heard a man whisper / murmur the words "Madeleine, Madeleine". This was heard en route to their flat, which was in the general direction that Bundleman /Tannerman walked. Seems it was in the alleyways or near. This happened at about 9.25ish. I am doing the time from memory, but it was before 9.30 anyway. 6. Matt went into 5A at about 9.30ish (memory again). He recorded that there seemed to be a faint light coming from the window. No light could have penetrated closed shutters ... so seems that the abduction had already taken place 7. There are an abundance of statements confirming all these things.
Such a pity that your record is so stuck, Stephen, that you are totally unable to accept that 8 professionals, all demonstrably loving parents and all free from any criminal involvement, are likely to be telling the truth.
Unexplainably sad that you prefer to believe the words of a proven perjurer (liar), a convicted criminal, than those of a quite large group of almost certainly totally innocent people. Bereaved people, to boot.
So, Stephen, here we have seven pointers to an abduction having taken place between 9.10 and 9.30ish. They cannot be ignored. Too many.... and all referring to a specific 20 minute period
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 09:57:44 AM
It may not be evidence per se, but it is a strong pointer, having Matt commenting that at 9.30ish, when he checked the Mccann children, he thought a little light was coming through the window. For ANY light to come through, the shutters had to be open at that time.
So pointers for your perusal 1. Gerry checked at about 9.10. All appeared well. 2. Jane witnessed a rapidly moving man carrying a child dressed like Madeleine ... and of the same age group. That was at about 9.15ish 3. This man kept his head averted away from Jane all the time, it seems. Strange ! 4. The way this man was carrying the child was exhausting, so they had NOT come far. 5. Mrs Caroline Carpenter heard a man whisper / murmur the words "Madeleine, Madeleine". This was heard en route to their flat, which was in the general direction that Bundleman /Tannerman walked. Seems it was in the alleyways or near. This happened at about 9.25ish. I am doing the time from memory, but it was before 9.30 anyway. 6. Matt went into 5A at about 9.30ish (memory again). He recorded that there seemed to be a faint light coming from the window. No light could have penetrated closed shutters ... so seems that the abduction had already taken place 7. There are an abundance of statements confirming all these things.
Such a pity that your record is so stuck, Stephen, that you are totally unable to accept that 8 professionals, all demonstrably loving parents and all free from any criminal involvement, are likely to be telling the truth.
Unexplainably sad that you prefer to believe the words of a proven perjurer (liar), a convicted criminal, than those of a quite large group of almost certainly totally innocent people. Bereaved people, to boot.
So, Stephen, here we have seven pointers to an abduction having taken place between 9.10 and 9.30ish. They cannot be ignored. Too many.... and all referring to a specific 20 minute period
Sorry to say sadie.
I'm not interested in your fantasies of defending the mccanns and associates.
As you are blinded for your hate/loathing of Amaral, as you are by your adoration of the mccanns.
Why do you keep referring to the Tanner sighting when it has been refuted ?
The man averted his eyes ?
Any light coming through the shutters ?
Were the shutters perfectly sealed ?
Were any lights on in the apartment ?
Murmur words ???
The power of imagination ??
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 28, 2014, 09:59:55 AM
They were in a superior semi permanent tent like building in the garden, just a wee bit over 50 metres away from their apartment. The Tapas group were able to see the apartment and patio windows and within hailing distance. It is an outside restaurant with largely open ends. Have you been there, Stephen?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 10:03:08 AM
They were in a superior semi permanent tent like building in the garden, just a wee bit over 50 metres away from their apartment. The Tapas group were able to see the apartment and patio windows and within hailing distance. It is an outside restaurant with largely open ends. Have you been there, Stephen?
You seem to occupy a fantasy world.
It has already been recounted they weren't looking towards thew apartment.
It was dark.
Hailing distance ????
This isn't Star Trek.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 28, 2014, 10:04:31 AM
sorry dogs alerts arent evidence...according to grime
You have to understand the difference between evidence and Legally admissible evidence. Nothing Sadie mentions is what would be classed as Legal evidence.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 28, 2014, 10:08:09 AM
It has already been recounted they weren't looking towards thew apartment.
It was dark.
Hailing distance ????
This isn't Star Trek.
The Tapas group were. They all looked out for each other. Friends do you know.
Yep. How many times do I have to tell you that our garden was 50 metres long and our children had no problem making us hear when we were chatting to neighbours over the fence. None at all. And Madeleine isn't a shrinking violet, is she?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 10:12:46 AM
The Tapas group were. They all looked out for each other. Friends do you know.
Yep. How many times do I have to tell you that our garden was 50 metres long and our children had no problem making us hear when we were chatting to neighbours over the fence. None at all. And Madeleine isn't a shrinking violet, is she?
You just don't get it, do you ?
They were seated in a direction away from the apartment.
It was night.
Visibility was poor.
They were distracted by talking,eating and drinking.
i.e. Their attention was elsewhere.
As to your last paragraph, what relevance is that ?
Were you boozing and eating as well ?
Was it at night ?
Get real.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 28, 2014, 10:21:44 AM
Why do you need to try and hide behind the skirts of the Needhams ?
Does it make you feel better ?
Most people believe the Needhams, but don't believe the Mccanns.
Ulike the McCanns the Needhams have not had to contend with scores of [ censored word ]s and others spreading hundreds of lies, myths and disinformation about them all over the internet - much of which is still believed and touted as fact even though they have long since been discredited.
There is nothing unusual about referring to the abduction of Ben Needham. There are similarities in both cases except that in the one case the family is believed and in the other the family is persecuted - and for the above reason IMO.
It is nothing to do with ''hiding behind skirts''? If you want an example of that then look at all the references to Barry George - who is regularly dragged out as some kind of 'proof' that SY cannnot possibly know what they are doing. Totally ludicrous IMO.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 10:32:36 AM
Ulike the McCanns the Needhams have not had to contend with scores of [ censored word ]s and others spreading hundreds of lies, myths and disinformation about them all over the internet - much of which is still believed and touted as fact even though they have long since been discredited.
There is nothing unusual about referring to the abduction of Ben Needham. There are similarities in both cases except that in the one case the family is believed and in the other the family is persecuted - and for the above reason IMO.
It is nothing to do with ''hiding behind skirts''? If you want an example of that then look at all the references to Barry George - who is regularly dragged out as some kind of 'proof' that SY cannnot possibly know what they are doing. Totally ludicrous IMO.
Pray tell, what is the success rate of SY in solving crimes ?
How many times have the members of the current team in the investigation, got it wrong ?
You are quite happy to look at Amaral and his other investigations, yet don't like it when SY's failings are discussed.
Why is that ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 28, 2014, 10:34:29 AM
It has already been recounted they weren't looking towards thew apartment.
It was dark.
Hailing distance ????This isn't Star Trek.
Quote from Bridget O'Donnell:-
Some of the parents were in a larger group. Most of them worked for the NHS and had met many years before in Leicestershire. Now they lived in different parts of the UK, and this holiday was their opportunity to catch up, to introduce their children, to reunite. They booked a large table every night in the Tapas. We called them "the Doctors". Sometimes we would sit out on our balcony and their laughter would float up around us. One man was the joker. He had a loud Glaswegian accent. He was Gerry McCann. End quote
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 10:53:48 AM
Some of the parents were in a larger group. Most of them worked for the NHS and had met many years before in Leicestershire. Now they lived in different parts of the UK, and this holiday was their opportunity to catch up, to introduce their children, to reunite. They booked a large table every night in the Tapas. We called them "the Doctors". Sometimes we would sit out on our balcony and their laughter would float up around us. One man was the joker. He had a loud Glaswegian accent. He was Gerry McCann. End quote
So what ?
A family holiday where most of the time the children were at a creche, and in the evening the parents were wining and dining ?
Get real.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Cariad on January 28, 2014, 10:53:57 AM
Some of the parents were in a larger group. Most of them worked for the NHS and had met many years before in Leicestershire. Now they lived in different parts of the UK, and this holiday was their opportunity to catch up, to introduce their children, to reunite. They booked a large table every night in the Tapas. We called them "the Doctors". Sometimes we would sit out on our balcony and their laughter would float up around us. One man was the joker. He had a loud Glaswegian accent. He was Gerry McCann. End quote
Strange Kate Mccann didn't call for assistance then when she 'found Madeleine gone' and instead chose to leave 2 babies alone in order to run to the restaurant.....
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 28, 2014, 10:56:47 AM
Pray tell, what is the success rate of SY in solving crimes ?
How many times have the members of the current team in the investigation, got it wrong ?
You are quite happy to look at Amaral and his other investigations, yet don't like it when SY's failings are discussed.
Why is that ?
You haven't specified what SY's failings are - either in this case or the Barry George case - which IIRC was around 12/13 years ago! Is that the best you can do in your sneering attempts to discredit ANYONE who does not agree with you? What do you think of the Needhams - they also support the McCanns?
Amaral has been convicted of perjury - i.e. abusing his power as a policeman and has a criminal record. His other investigation also dealt with the case of a missing child. There are similarities between those two cases IMO - but there are no similarities between the Barry George case and what happened to Madeleine McCann to even begin to compare the performance of the SY Team.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on January 28, 2014, 11:00:02 AM
It may not be evidence per se, but it is a strong pointer, having Matt commenting that at 9.30ish, when he checked the Mccann children, he thought a little light was coming through the window. For ANY light to come through, the shutters had to be open at that time.
That is a false claim Sadie. The shutters can be down and still let 20% light into the room.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 28, 2014, 11:00:14 AM
Some of the parents were in a larger group. Most of them worked for the NHS and had met many years before in Leicestershire. Now they lived in different parts of the UK, and this holiday was their opportunity to catch up, to introduce their children, to reunite. They booked a large table every night in the Tapas. We called them "the Doctors". Sometimes we would sit out on our balcony and their laughter would float up around us. One man was the joker. He had a loud Glaswegian accent. He was Gerry McCann. End quote
Knowing how noisy these evenings can be,I would be surprised if they could hear anything from 20m away let alone 50m.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 11:08:21 AM
You haven't specified what SY's failings are - either in this case or the Barry George case - which IIRC was around 12/13 years ago! Is that the best you can do in your sneering attempts to discredit ANYONE who does not agree with you? What do you think of the Needhams - they also support the McCanns?
Amaral has been convicted of perjury - i.e. abusing his power as a policeman and has a criminal record. His other investigation also dealt with the case of a missing child. There are similarities between those two cases IMO - but there are no similarities between the Barry George case and what happened to Madeleine McCann to even begin to compare the performance of the SY Team.
There is the crux of it.
It's your opinion. 8)-)))
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 28, 2014, 11:17:46 AM
Strange Kate Mccann didn't call for assistance then when she 'found Madeleine gone' and instead chose to leave 2 babies alone in order to run to the restaurant.....
Not strange at all IMO. There are no rules to say how a mother who had just discovered her child missing should behave. She had just searched the apartment - and so knew no-one was in there. In her panic she rushed to get her husband - which was the most natural thing to do and which must have taken all of 15/20 seconds.
The idea that anyone should be thinking logically and rationally in those panic stricken moments is completely unrealistic IMO.
Once again - good old 'hindsight 'comes into play. It's so easy to be wise sitting at a computer and making judgements with the 20/20 vision of hindsight which the McCanns did not have at the time.
If my house was suddenly struck by ball lightening and the roof caved in - can I say that I would calmly weigh up the best and most efficient approach available to me to deal with it - or would I be so shocked and panicked that I could have no idea what I would do ? I'm fairly sure the latter would be the case.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 28, 2014, 11:21:08 AM
So what is YOUR opinion of the Needhams for their support of the McCanns?
They are free to 'support' whom they wish.
Do you really believe every police officer and parent of missing children believes the mccanns ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on January 28, 2014, 12:57:26 PM
Working on the basic premise that the child was abducted what are the mechanics of it? Looking at it as an RCA the primary event would be the abduction of the child:-
Abduction of child=> child crossing paths with an abductor=> the abductor being present => => the child letting themselves out of the apartment => => the abductor breaking into the apartment.
1 What proof is there of the child letting itself out?. 2 What proof is there of a break in?. (bearing in mind the (ESN to some) PJ don’t believe there was a break in) 3 What proof is there of the presence of an abductor. If someone can prove beyond reasonable doubt that either 1 or 2 occurred simultaneously with 3 then there are reasonable grounds for believing there was abduction. Otherwise it’s up for grabs and arguing along the lines “because it is” or “if a sewing machine had bigger wheels it would be a car” don’t cut it.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 28, 2014, 01:05:37 PM
Working on the basic premise that the child was abducted what are the mechanics of it? Looking at it as an RCA the primary event would be the abduction of the child:-
Abduction of child=> child crossing paths with an abductor=> the abductor being present => => the child letting themselves out of the apartment => => the abductor breaking into the apartment.
1 What proof is there of the child letting itself out?. 2 What proof is there of a break in?. (bearing in mind the (ESN to some) PJ don’t believe there was a break in) 3 What proof is there of the presence of an abductor. If someone can prove beyond reasonable doubt that either 1 or 2 occurred simultaneously with 3 then there are reasonable grounds for believing there was abduction. Otherwise it’s up for grabs and arguing along the lines “because it is” or “if a sewing machine had bigger wheels it would be a car” don’t cut it.
There's no evidence of neither 1), 2) and 3). Now that Tannerman has been eliminated by SY, the investigation is left with a strong evidence of Madeleine being carried away, shortly after the alarm was launched, the question being whether the carrier was an abductor.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: a.baker on January 28, 2014, 02:50:37 PM
Open windows/curtains/shutters all a red herring carried out by the McCanns imo as they didn't want to admit in the beginning that they had left the apartment unlocked.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 28, 2014, 02:59:21 PM
Open windows/curtains/shutters all a red herring carried out by the McCanns imo as they didn't want to admit in the beginning that they had left the apartment unlocked.
No No No. How many times do you need to be told - it was burglars wot did it. @)(++(*
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 03:02:29 PM
Open windows/curtains/shutters all a red herring carried out by the McCanns imo as they didn't want to admit in the beginning that they had left the apartment unlocked.
I don't believe the apartment was left unlocked at all,
I think that once they realised the 'abduction through window' scenario was too far fetched, that's when the doors became magically unlocked, in order to allow points of entry for the...
I don't believe the apartment was left unlocked at all, I think that once they realised the 'abduction through window' scenario was too far fetched, that's when the doors became magically unlocked, in order to allow points of entry for the... creepyman' abductor.
It is possible that the sliding door-window was safely shut and they entered the normal way, when they entered, which likely was rare, unless they needed to. However they used the sliding one to listen, no use to enter. In this case the open sliding door-window had to be invented when Mr McCann spoke to the PJ on the crime scene. A check of Mr Oldfield had been added to the second time-line and Mr Oldfield could absolutely not have seen the shutters... He had to enter but had no key and if he pretended he had everybody would know he was lying. Moreover he would have passed the fatal window before opening the door... The following day, when he started to state, Mr McCann forgot about that detail and said... the truth, that he had entered the flat with his key... Then what could he do when his story came to the point of Mr Oldfield's check ? He couldn't possibly make him listening to the shutters without noting that they were up, so he had to go for the second worst open sliding door-window.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 03:26:15 PM
Strange Kate Mccann didn't call for assistance then when she 'found Madeleine gone' and instead chose to leave 2 babies alone in order to run to the restaurant.....
In this statement kate says...
She then completes a check of the bathroom, kitchen and wardrobes.
On failing to find Madeleine, she runs to the entrance of the restaurant, shouting from the path leading to the restaurant area raising the alarm that Madeleine was missing.
So she saying she called from the path leading to the restaurant...wheres that...where did kate shout from...I don't trust the statements that were written in Portuguese then further translated
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 28, 2014, 03:28:17 PM
She then completes a check of the bathroom, kitchen and wardrobes.
On failing to find Madeleine, she runs to the entrance of the restaurant, shouting from the path leading to the restaurant area raising the alarm that Madeleine was missing.
So she saying she called from the path leading to the restaurant...wheres that...where did kate shout from...I don't trust the statements that were written in Portuguese then further translated
Afternoon davel. I supplied my definition of 'evidence' this morning. Can you now please tell me what the evidence for abduction is please?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 28, 2014, 04:28:59 PM
Ulike the McCanns the Needhams have not had to contend with scores of [ censored word ]s and others spreading hundreds of lies, myths and disinformation about them all over the internet - much of which is still believed and touted as fact even though they have long since been discredited.
There is nothing unusual about referring to the abduction of Ben Needham. There are similarities in both cases except that in the one case the family is believed and in the other the family is persecuted - and for the above reason IMO.
It is nothing to do with ''hiding behind skirts''? If you want an example of that then look at all the references to Barry George - who is regularly dragged out as some kind of 'proof' that SY cannnot possibly know what they are doing. Totally ludicrous IMO.
But the Needhams didn't concoct a story about what happened to Ben, did they? He disappeared and no-one knows what happened.
Madeleine disappeared and the McCanns know what happened so they must have had something to do with it, otherwise they wouldn't know. Apart from which there is so much in their behaviour and in what they have said and done that about a million red flags are billowing in the breeze.
Plus the Needhams didn't cash in on their son's disappearance and use a fund to sue people and fly around the world. There is no resemblance at all between the case of Madeleine and the case of Ben Needham.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 28, 2014, 04:34:56 PM
I don't think I said anyone lied. They might have made an assumption that they could hear...was there any music at the Tapas Bar?
This whole nonsense about them beng able to see and hear, is just, well, nonsense for the sheer fact that they wouldnt be "looking there" all night, (why the heck would they be? If they were that concerned they would have left the door locked or not left em at all) and yes, a packed restaraunt and raucous atmosphere would drown out any sounds of any child crying on a balcony, no brainer
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 05:07:54 PM
using your definition..are there any facts to show that the belief that Maddie was abducted is valid...not definitely true...
Oh come on davel! Last night you said there was evidence to support abduction, I've asked you repeatedly to share that evidence. I understand that you have a life out side the forum and needed to do the school run ect, but to coming back almost 24 hours later and basically ask me the same question that I asked you, is pretty poor!
You stated that there is evidence of abduction, share it please!
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 28, 2014, 05:33:54 PM
Kate was concerned about the unlocked patio door at the tapas bar that night even though she sat with her back to the apartment and couldn't see it - very strange! If Gerry used the front door key it's because it's the the only way he could enter from the northside. That would mean he was doing something on the northside of the apartments on that first check at 9pm. When Jez saw him he had just came out of the southside/side gate so he entered via northside and exited southside before meeting Jez IMO. Therefore in that case the patio door would be open when Matt went to do the check - this was supposed to be Kate's check and it wasn't long after Gerry returned. Only 10 minutes later. Kate would've entered via unlocked patio door as she talked about at the table but Matt threw a spanner in the works when he said he'd check for her.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 28, 2014, 05:40:11 PM
Kate was concerned about the unlocked patio door at the tapas bar that night even though she sat with her back to the apartment and couldn't see it - very strange! If Gerry used the front door key it's because it's the the only way he could enter from the northside. That would mean he was doing something on the northside of the apartments on that first check at 9pm. When Jez saw him he had just came out of the southside/side gate so he entered via northside and exited southside before meeting Jez IMO. Therefore in that case the patio door would be open when Matt went to do the check - this was supposed to be Kate's check and it wasn't long after Gerry returned. Only 10 minutes later.
thats a point, all the talk of half hourly checks, and with tanner too, as soon as she was back, 10 mins later russell goes off...as I said before if they were that concerned why have a musical chairs on your tether unrelaxed dinner rather an hire babysitters or put them in the night creche till 11.30 closing time
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 28, 2014, 05:48:48 PM
thats a point, all the talk of half hourly checks, and with tanner too, as soon as she was back, 10 mins later russell goes off...as I said before if they were that concerned why have a musical chairs on your tether unrelaxed dinner rather an hire babysitters or put them in the night creche till 11.30 closing time
Alternatively, they could probably have arranged 'dinner to go' and had it on one of the adjoining patios - much more like eating in your own garden.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 28, 2014, 05:52:28 PM
thats a point, all the talk of half hourly checks, and with tanner too, as soon as she was back, 10 mins later russell goes off...as I said before if they were that concerned why have a musical chairs on your tether unrelaxed dinner rather an hire babysitters or put them in the night creche till 11.30 closing time
Let's put it this way. There were more coming and goings that night than any other and on the night Madeleine disappeared. Nothing about this case adds up. That's why you need to take the simple approach instead of trying to work out impossible moving doors and an open window that nobody passed through. They should forget about the nonsense and concentrate on Smithman. You get him then you can crack the case. Madeleine was not in the apartment when Matt did his check so he's got nothing to do with her disappearance.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 28, 2014, 05:54:23 PM
Let's put it this way. There were more coming and goings that night than any other and on the night Madeleine disappeared. Nothing about this case adds up. That's why you need to take the simple approach instead of trying to work out impossible moving doors and an open window that nobody passed through. They should forget about the nonsense and concentrate on Smithman. You get him then you can crack the case. Madeleine was not in the apartment when Matt did his check so he's got nothing to do with her disappearance.
Which one - 9 o'clock, or 9.30 ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 28, 2014, 05:57:33 PM
Madeleine wasn't in the apartment when Matt checked at 9.30pm so he's got nothing to do with her disappearance. Smithman moved her out before that check.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 28, 2014, 06:01:59 PM
Let's put it this way. There were more coming and goings that night than any other and on the night Madeleine disappeared. Nothing about this case adds up. That's why you need to take the simple approach instead of trying to work out impossible moving doors and an open window that nobody passed through. They should forget about the nonsense and concentrate on Smithman. You get him then you can crack the case. Madeleine was not in the apartment when Matt did his check so he's got nothing to do with her disappearance.
No it doesnt....thats the whole problem, hopefully SY wil get their teeth straight into the jugular soon
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Cariad on January 28, 2014, 06:03:11 PM
Madeleine wasn't in the apartment when Matt checked at 9.30pm so he's got nothing to do with her disappearance.
I'm not convinced he even entered 5A, personally. I think that it's more likely that the regular checks were fabricated to make them all look less negligent.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 28, 2014, 06:06:08 PM
Madeleine wasn't in the apartment when Matt checked at 9.30pm so he's got nothing to do with her disappearance. Smithman moved her out before that.
the only part i dont get about Oldfields check (well apart from describing a non existent bookcase that he looked through lol) is he wondered where Madeleine slept...so he didnt stick his head inside the kids bedroom but went looking in the parents bedroom for her!! Why would he do that if he didnt want to make sure she was there? And he didnt make the effort to be sure she was in the kids bedroom..
>@@(*&)
So yes, dont add up, therefore nonsense
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 28, 2014, 06:10:58 PM
I'm not convinced he even entered 5A, personally. I think that it's more likely that the regular checks were fabricated to make them all look less negligent.
I think the patio door was open for the 9.25/30 check or how was Kate gonna get in? She was supposed to go not Matt. One thing is clear - she didn't wait 30 minutes for the next check knowing that the patio door was still unlocked. She is gone earlier than 10pm - even up to 10 minutes earlier which makes sense.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 28, 2014, 06:17:59 PM
the only part i dont get about Oldfields check (well apart from describing a non existent bookcase that he looked through lol) is he wondered where Madeleine slept...so he didnt stick his head inside the kids bedroom but went looking in the parents bedroom for her!! Why would he do that if he didnt want to make sure she was there? And he didnt make the effort to be sure she was in the kids bedroom..
>@@(*&)
So yes, dont add up, therefore nonsense
Not sure but as soon as he saw the cots he would know which was the kids room and probably didn't want to enter in case he woke them up.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 28, 2014, 06:19:03 PM
Sorry that doesnt make sense....if he wanted to sight madeleine why not poke hs nose in instead of looking in other rooms?
I don't know why he was being nosy looking in other rooms but he said it was quiet so presumed everything was fine. He could have put his head in to check but he would've found her missing if he did IMO. I still don't think it matters too much because he didn't move her out of the apartment. Unless he dyed his hair before the Smith sighting.
I don't know why he was being nosy looking in other rooms but he said it was quiet so presumed everything was fine. He could have put his head in to check but he would've found her missing if he did IMO. I still don't think it matters too much because he didn't move her out of the apartment. Unless his dyed his hair before the Smith sighting.
I'm not convinced he even entered 5A, personally. I think that it's more likely that the regular checks were fabricated to make them all look less negligent.
Neither am I. Suppress Mr Oldfield, and things look more every half hour manner. Mr McCann comes back at 21:15 and it's Mrs McCann's turn at 21:45. As Mr Oldfield had listened at the shutters at 21 and as he really checked on his daughter at 21:30, he was asked to say he checked visually right after in order to reduce the negligence aspect. Where was Madeleine at 21:30 ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 28, 2014, 07:13:11 PM
No I dont suspect Oldfield either at all, but I dont trust his video "performance" ..no doubt Gerry engineered, yawn
Matt believes they are innocent but some of the info he has provided goes against the McCann's version. Fiona told him to go not Gerry. Another attempt for an alibi for Gerry in those very important first 10 minutes of the searches so he couldn't be seen to be somewhere else but Matt said it was Fiona who asked him and he should know as he went lol. Another alibi goes up in smoke just like the other alibi attempt of doing forensics on the shutters instead of searching with the others for his daughter - nobody believes that one either and is confirmed by Russell "Gerry said, Let's all split up and find her!" The other alibi of the night crèche is that nobody saw him there. It doesn't look good with all these desperate attempts of getting an alibi. The only one he has left is Kate - Gerry was with me. Funny Dianne said you were all alone when she was checking the shutters for you.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 07:36:28 PM
Oh come on davel! Last night you said there was evidence to support abduction, I've asked you repeatedly to share that evidence. I understand that you have a life out side the forum and needed to do the school run ect, but to coming back almost 24 hours later and basically ask me the same question that I asked you, is pretty poor!
You stated that there is evidence of abduction, share it please!
maddie was put to bed and later disappeared...the shutter was forced up from the outside and the window opened... enough to support the belief that Maddie was abducted.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: icabodcrane on January 28, 2014, 07:42:40 PM
maddie was put to bed and later disappeared...the shutter was forced up from the outside and the window opened... enough to support the belief that Maddie was abducted.
There is no evidence that the shutter was 'forced up from the outside' ... there never was
tsk tsk
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 28, 2014, 07:43:54 PM
Matt believes they are innocent but some of the info he has provided goes against the McCann's version. Fiona told him to go not Gerry. Another attempt for an alibi for Gerry in those very important first 10 minutes of the searches so he couldn't be seen to be somewhere else but Matt said it was Fiona who asked him and he should know as he went lol. Another alibi goes up in smoke just like the other alibi attempt of doing forensics on the shutters instead of searching with the others for his daughter - nobody believes that one either and is confirmed by Russell "Gerry said, Let's all split up and find her!" The other alibi of the night crèche is that nobody saw him there. It doesn't look good with all these desperate attempts of getting an alibi. The only one he has left is Kate - Gerry was with me. Funny Dianne said you were all alone when she was checking the shutters for you.
I just hope SY have spent these last two and a half years going through everything with a fine comb
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 28, 2014, 07:44:48 PM
of course there was..there is a witness statement...that is evidence...that's why witnesses give EVIDENCE in the form of a witness statement in court
This could be a false witness and the statement hasn't been given in court.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 28, 2014, 07:49:29 PM
The McCanns offered a theory as to what happened that night. It is merely an opinion as they claim they were not there and had no prior knowledge. So they cannot 'know' what happened to their daughter, unless they had something to do with it. Therefore Kate's claim that she 'knew' cannot be correct, unless she had something to do with it.
That the parents of a missing child would need to offer a theory, rather than simply 'not knowing' unfortunately starts to place Madeleine as being within the 'typical' rather than 'atypical' abduction cases.
And, don't forget, statistically, there is only a 16 per cent chance that her parents or family had nothing at all to do with her disappearance.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 07:50:46 PM
Working on the basic premise that the child was abducted what are the mechanics of it? Looking at it as an RCA the primary event would be the abduction of the child:-
Abduction of child=> child crossing paths with an abductor=> the abductor being present => => the child letting themselves out of the apartment => => the abductor breaking into the apartment.
1 What proof is there of the child letting itself out?. 2 What proof is there of a break in?. (bearing in mind the (ESN to some) PJ don’t believe there was a break in) 3 What proof is there of the presence of an abductor. If someone can prove beyond reasonable doubt that either 1 or 2 occurred simultaneously with 3 then there are reasonable grounds for believing there was abduction. Otherwise it’s up for grabs and arguing along the lines “because it is” or “if a sewing machine had bigger wheels it would be a car” don’t cut it.
well if you expect proof you aint gonna get it on a forum...
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 28, 2014, 07:51:52 PM
The McCanns offered a theory as to what happened that night. It is merely an opinion as they claim they were not there and had no prior knowledge. So they cannot 'know' what happened to their daughter, unless they had something to do with it. Therefore Kate's claim that she 'knew' cannot be correct, unless she had something to do with it.
That the parents of a missing child would need to offer a theory, rather than simply 'not knowing' unfortunately starts to place Madeleine as being within the 'typical' rather than 'atypical' abduction cases.
And, don't forget, statistically, there is only a 16 per cent chance that her parents or family had nothing at all to do with her disappearance.
The only reason they "knew" is cos the window and shutter were found open....apparently so that proves a stranger did it
Of course theres no evidence for this
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 28, 2014, 07:52:14 PM
maddie was put to bed and later disappeared...the shutter was forced up from the outside and the window opened... enough to support the belief that Maddie was abducted.
Utter rollocks. 8-)(--)
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 07:53:28 PM
This could be a false witness and the statement hasn't been given in court.
of course they could...but it hasn't been necessary to challenge them in court because there isn't the evidence to even arrest the McCanns never mind charge them
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 28, 2014, 07:54:00 PM
maddie was put to bed and later disappeared...the shutter was forced up from the outside and the window opened... enough to support the belief that Maddie was abducted.
Ok, fine, say that's actually true (though it's not) how is that evidence of a stranger abduction and not, say, a staged abduction to cover up the death of a child left alone?
It is not evidence of abduction at all! Even though I left out that there was no sign of forced shutters!
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 07:57:00 PM
of course they could...but it hasn't been necessary to challenge them in court because there isn't the evidence to even arrest the McCanns never mind charge them
Rubbish.
Social workers would have had a field-day with this case in England. It is completely irresponsible to leave children of that age alone at night. There was also no excuse as there was a free evening creche and babysitting at very reasonable cost.
Kate even admits that Madeleine cried one night and asked why they didn't come.
There are massive child protection issues here. And that is just the very tip of the most enormous iceberg.
And you know it. So do they. So does everyone, actually.
That's why this case is so extraordinary.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: icabodcrane on January 28, 2014, 07:59:20 PM
of course there was..there is a witness statement...that is evidence...that's why witnesses give EVIDENCE in the form of a witness statement in court
What a silly thing to say
Either there is phsysical /forensic evidence that the shutter were 'forced up from the outside' or there is not
In this case there was not
A hundred 'witnesses' could 'say' the shutter was forced from the outside and it would matter not a jot unless there was physical evidence to support the claim
( who is this 'witness' who said the shutters were forced from the outside anyway ? )
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 08:00:18 PM
Ok, fine, say that's actually true (though it's not) how is that evidence of a stranger abduction and not, say, a staged abduction to cover up the death of a child left alone?
It is not evidence of abduction at all! Even though I left out that there was no sign of forced shutters!
I think we have already established the chances of Maddie dying in the apartment are non existent...what could she have died from?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 08:01:13 PM
Either there is phsysical /forensic evidence that the shutter were 'forced up from the outside' or there is not
In this case there was not
A hundred 'witnesses' could 'say' the shutter was forced from the outside and it would matter not a jot unless there was physical evidence to support the claim
( who is this 'witness' who said the shutters were forced from the outside anyway ? )
Another one who doesn't understand the meaning of the word evidence
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 28, 2014, 08:03:13 PM
Social workers would have had a field-day with this case in England. It is completely irresponsible to leave children of that age alone at night. There was also no excuse as there was a free evening creche and babysitting at very reasonable cost.
Kate even admits that Madeleine cried one night and asked why they didn't come.
There are massive child protection issues here. And that is just the very tip of the most enormous iceberg.
And you know it. So do they. So does everyone, actually.
That's why this case is so extraordinary.
More absolute bollocks ...as red would say...
We have seen from the recent case in Scotland where there appears to have been massive neglect resulting in the death of a child that social workers did sweet FA
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 28, 2014, 08:03:45 PM
Either there is phsysical /forensic evidence that the shutter were 'forced up from the outside' or there is not
In this case there was not
A hundred 'witnesses' could 'say' the shutter was forced from the outside and it would matter not a jot unless there was physical evidence to support the claim
( who is this 'witness' who said the shutters were forced from the outside anyway ? )
No witnesses whatsoever, no physical evidence, just hearsay
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 08:05:50 PM
You are kidding, right? The chances of a person dying are non-existent?
That is most definitely a lie!! And I have evidence to prove it! @)(++(*
wheres the evidence...before you show it most deaths involve fires and stairs...there were none in the appt
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 28, 2014, 08:06:00 PM
Davel, please provide evidence that the chances of a person dying are non-existent.
Should be interesting reading, if a little short.
And, yes, children and toddlers can die too....and sometimes even in an apartment. Please provide evidence that the chances of a young child left alone in an apartment dying are non-existent.
You seem to like statistics.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 28, 2014, 08:06:07 PM
Davel, please provide evidence that the chances of a person dying are non-existent.
Should be interesting reading, if a little short.
And, yes, children and toddlers can die too....and sometimes even in an apartment. Please provide evidence that the chances of a young child left alone in an apartment dying are non-existent.
You seem to like statistics.
you said you have the evidence to prove me wrong...you obviously have had second thoughts
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 08:11:38 PM
Pathetic argument as scores and scores of children die in their own homes yearly
you have to read the whole paper not just the first paragraph...scores of children die in accidents true...fires are probably the main cause followed by falls down stairs...even then death is not always instant but later in hospital
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 08:30:44 PM
I also seem to remember this case at one point being described as a professional abduction. Just goes to show how some people can be so very wrong about abduction theories.
If you look at my posts on the matter you will note I was never taken in
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 28, 2014, 08:31:40 PM
Not to be pedantic folks, but the thread topic is not about evidence or proof, legally admissable or otherwise.
It is about the statistical chances of abduction in this case.
And the statistics relating to parental involvement in abduction cases are largely irrelevant to family McCann.
There was no custody battle, child abuse, mental problems of the parents, or any of the other issues that go to make up that 86% statistic.
Sorry to be pedantic too but the whole discussion was not about parental custodial abductions (alive children) but all and any parental or familial and friends involvement in both live and dead children, and the statistics do show this figures in the majority..have to go,check back later
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 28, 2014, 09:48:49 PM
The trouble is, there is not one iota of evidence, let alone forensic backup, to indicate abduction.
As to the background of the mccanns, we only 'know' what has been fed to the pres
That's true. But if there was a history of child abuse, mental problems, a difficult relationship between the parents that may have led to a custody issue, then something would have come out by now. This would be catnip to the press. CM may be feeding the press, but there are plenty media reports which do not come from him and do not present the case in a good light for the McCanns.
This type of information would also be vital for anyone investigating. Several investigators, here and in Portugal, have discussed the case with press and public, and not one of them has suggested any of the above problems.
Look at the recent Kular case. Very little has been leaked from official sources, yet the press have still managed to get their hands on all sorts of information regarding Mikaeel being in care, drug problems, etc. Neighbours have spoken to the press. These things come out.
If the McCanns were a problem family, we would know about it by now.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 28, 2014, 09:53:41 PM
Sorry to be pedantic too but the whole discussion was not about parental custodial abductions (alive children) but all and any parental or familial and friends involvement in both live and dead children, and the statistics do show this figures in the majority..have to go,check back later
That's right, and there is nothing pointing to any of those things either. The McCanns and their family have no history of anything which would place them, statistically, as being likely to be involved in a child's disappearance.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 28, 2014, 10:06:14 PM
That's right, and there is nothing pointing to any of those things either. The McCanns and their family have no history of anything which would place them, statistically, as being likely to be involved in a child's disappearance.
Hmmmm. I don't think any information as to their previous history is in the public domain?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 28, 2014, 10:07:58 PM
That's right, and there is nothing pointing to any of those things either. The McCanns and their family have no history of anything which would place them, statistically, as being likely to be involved in a child's disappearance.
In a child abduction by one of them or by a person close to them, no. But you hardly can infer from that an abduction by stranger ! Don't forget that one in 5 children between 1 and 4 dies from a daily life misadventure, That's what happened to Casey Anthony's daughter. Justice would likely have let her in peace, had she called the police immediately. But she didn't.
In Portugal statistically Madeleine had no chance to be abducted (from bed, home, garden) and almost none to be abducted from the public space.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: icabodcrane on January 28, 2014, 10:23:13 PM
Just to re-cap then
We have accepted ( by virtue of the Home Office statistics referenced by Kate McCann ) that where abduction has been established ( and proven ) there is an 84% likelihood of family involvement
This statistic is not all surprising, but, in this case, we are jumping the gun here
Abduction has not been established ( proven ) so the statistic we should be concerned with is the one that addresses the question of children who are reported 'missing' by their parents ... and what percentage of them turn out to have been abducted by strangers
Anyone have those stats ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 10:25:34 PM
That's right, and there is nothing pointing to any of those things either. The McCanns and their family have no history of anything which would place them, statistically, as being likely to be involved in a child's disappearance.
This posts justs about sums up the reason I started this thread. Some posters are under the false impression that statistically it is highly likely that the McCanns were involved in Maddies disappaerance..they are just plain wrong...
another myth used to point guilt at the McCannns bites the dust.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 28, 2014, 10:27:11 PM
We have accepted ( by virtue of the Home Office statistics referenced by Kate McCann ) that where abduction has been established ( and proven ) there is an 84% likelihood of family involvement
This statistic is not all surprising, but, in this case, we are jumping the gun here
Abduction has not been established ( proven ) so the statistic we should be concerned with is the one that addresses the question of children who are reported 'missing' by their parents ... and what percentage of them turn out to have been abducted by strangers
Anyone have those stats ?
absolute load of rubbish...no wonder you have got everything wrong
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Cariad on January 28, 2014, 10:27:34 PM
That's true. But if there was a history of child abuse, mental problems, a difficult relationship between the parents that may have led to a custody issue, then something would have come out by now. This would be catnip to the press. CM may be feeding the press, but there are plenty media reports which do not come from him and do not present the case in a good light for the McCanns.
This type of information would also be vital for anyone investigating. Several investigators, here and in Portugal, have discussed the case with press and public, and not one of them has suggested any of the above problems.
Look at the recent Kular case. Very little has been leaked from official sources, yet the press have still managed to get their hands on all sorts of information regarding Mikaeel being in care, drug problems, etc. Neighbours have spoken to the press. These things come out.
If the McCanns were a problem family, we would know about it by now.
I don't agree. Things go on behind closed doors that no one ever finds out about, or not for a very long time anyway. This is especially true of middle class families who may feel ashamed about such things.
an anecdotal example : A and B where married for over forty years. When they were both retired and the children had left home and had families of their own, A leaves B and finally admits that she's been a victim of domestic violence for all of her married life. She finally left when she was convinced he was actually going to kill her. The children didn't even know!
A and B's job were comparable to the Mccanns, though they weren't actually Dr's. Same kind of pay scale though. Oh and they were very religious! Church every Sunday.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 28, 2014, 10:40:09 PM
I don't agree. Things go on behind closed doors that no one ever finds out about, or not for a very long time anyway. This is especially true of middle class families who may feel ashamed about such things.
an anecdotal example : A and B where married for over forty years. When they were both retired and the children had left home and had families of their own, A leaves B and finally admits that she's been a victim of domestic violence for all of her married life. She finally left when she was convinced he was actually going to kill her. The children didn't even know!
A and B's job were comparable to the Mccanns, though they weren't actually Dr's. Same kind of pay scale though. Oh and they were very religious! Church every Sunday.
It is surprising just how much "secret" information is held that even the press will never get at. I agree with the "behind closed doors" bit too. But why does there have to be "previous". I can think of at least three murders in localities in which I have lived that were "one offs" and caused shock among neighbours and none of the guilty parties had any kind of "previous". Nor do I buy that statistics are a good "go by" except in the McCann case.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 29, 2014, 02:16:04 AM
I don't agree. Things go on behind closed doors that no one ever finds out about, or not for a very long time anyway. This is especially true of middle class families who may feel ashamed about such things.
an anecdotal example : A and B where married for over forty years. When they were both retired and the children had left home and had families of their own, A leaves B and finally admits that she's been a victim of domestic violence for all of her married life. She finally left when she was convinced he was actually going to kill her. The children didn't even know!
A and B's job were comparable to the Mccanns, though they weren't actually Dr's. Same kind of pay scale though. Oh and they were very religious! Church every Sunday.
But if A and B were in the spotlight of world media, and had had dozens of detectives working on a matter connected with one of their children for years and years, something might have been learned about the marriage.
Domestic violence victims are often notoriously secretive (when they're not in denial ) - the McCanns are not.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 29, 2014, 02:16:47 AM
It is surprising just how much "secret" information is held that even the press will never get at. I agree with the "behind closed doors" bit too. But why does there have to be "previous". I can think of at least three murders in localities in which I have lived that were "one offs" and caused shock among neighbours and none of the guilty parties had any kind of "previous". Nor do I buy that statistics are a good "go by" except in the McCann case.
Maybe there was no obvious 'previous'. But a 'previous' always exists. We're just not party to the relevant information at the time. An expert or someone intimately involved in the situation would see or know of information or observe red flags.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 29, 2014, 02:32:39 AM
No-one at all has come up with a single damaging fact about the McCanns as a couple or anyone in their families. Almost whiter than white.
There's no evidence of their whitehood ! Perhaps, perhaps not. As Icabodcrane has underlined above, abduction hasn't been established. Therefore, among children reported missing, as it is Madeleine's case, what are the chances to be abducted by parent/friend, by stranger, by adopting parents, to have been sold, to have been killed by predator, to be in a sex ring, to have died in a domestic accident, to be the victim of an homicide by neglect, etc.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 29, 2014, 02:43:04 AM
There's no evidence of their whitehood ! Perhaps, perhaps not. As Icabodcrane has underlined above, abduction hasn't been established. Therefore, among children reported missing, as it is Madeleine's case, what are the chances to be abducted by parent/friend, by stranger, by adopting parents, to have been sold, to have been killed by predator, to be in a sex ring, to have died in a domestic accident, to be the victim of an homicide by neglect, etc.
Well, you've just answered your own question. There are many reasons why Madeleine could have gone missing, the vast majority of which have nothing to do with her parents. That is the reality in this case. Those are the statistics that would be applicable - if it helps to do that after the fact.
If we learn something about the McCanns' lives that would make it more likely that they were guilty of something, such as a history of child abuse, then we would adjust the balance of probabilities accordingly.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 29, 2014, 02:51:13 AM
Well, you've just answered your own question. There are many reasons why Madeleine could have gone missing, the vast majority of which have nothing to do with her parents. That is the reality in this case. Those are the statistics that would be applicable - if it helps to do that after the fact.
If we learn something about the McCanns' lives that would make it more likely that they were guilty of something, such as a history of child abuse, then we would adjust the balance of probabilities accordingly.
No. And you haven't answered it as well. Where are the stats ? I bet that most cases are accidents, by neglect or not.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: colombosstogey on January 29, 2014, 07:00:49 AM
I don't agree. Things go on behind closed doors that no one ever finds out about, or not for a very long time anyway. This is especially true of middle class families who may feel ashamed about such things.
an anecdotal example : A and B where married for over forty years. When they were both retired and the children had left home and had families of their own, A leaves B and finally admits that she's been a victim of domestic violence for all of her married life. She finally left when she was convinced he was actually going to kill her. The children didn't even know!
A and B's job were comparable to the Mccanns, though they weren't actually Dr's. Same kind of pay scale though. Oh and they were very religious! Church every Sunday.
I knew one just like that myself.
ALSO where did the nanny go of the McCanns?
I also read that Mrs McCanns mother mentioned problems at the beginning ..... its there somewhere...
PND can be a silent killer and no one but the mother knows they have it, and just ONE silly thing can trigger it off.
I think most people hide stuff.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 07:37:36 AM
There's no evidence of their whitehood ! Perhaps, perhaps not. As Icabodcrane has underlined above, abduction hasn't been established. Therefore, among children reported missing, as it is Madeleine's case, what are the chances to be abducted by parent/friend, by stranger, by adopting parents, to have been sold, to have been killed by predator, to be in a sex ring, to have died in a domestic accident, to be the victim of an homicide by neglect, etc.
If we look at children reported missing by parents I think you will find that in the majority of cases no parental involvement...cant do it now but lets start the ball rolling...Jamie Bulger...Ben Needham ..Jessica chapman.. Holly Wills, Millie Dowling
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 29, 2014, 08:11:55 AM
Hmmmm. I don't think any information as to their previous history is in the public domain?
There is plenty of photographic evidence and family videos which show that Madeleine had a very full and happy life imo, some would say even 'privileged', in comparison to many children. The fact that she was a most 'wanted' child is also indisputable imo.
There is no evidence at all to show that she was so unimportant to her parents that they could decide in a trice to dispose of her body because she had died - and had suddenly become an 'obstacle' to their future happiness which needed to be quickly removed. Unbelievable nonsense of the highest order IMO because their lives would have been ruined anyway if she had died.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 29, 2014, 08:14:14 AM
There is plenty of photographic evidence and family videos which show that Madeleine had a very full and happy life imo, some would say even 'privileged', in comparison to many children. The fact that she was a most 'wanted' child is also indisputable imo.
There is no evidence at all to show that she was so unimportant to her parents that they could decide in a trice to dispose of her body because she had died - and had suddenly become an 'obstacle' to their future happiness which needed to be quickly removed. Unbelievable nonsense of the highest order IMO because their lives would have been ruined anyway if she had died.
There is plenty of photographic evidence and family videos which show that Madeleine had a very full and happy life imo
"Had"
So she is dead then.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 29, 2014, 08:24:14 AM
There is plenty of photographic evidence and family videos which show that Madeleine had a very full and happy life imo
"Had"
So she is dead then.
I have no idea whether she is dead or not. The word 'had' is used because her life at home has been in the past from the moment she disappeared. To have said ''she 'HAS' a full and happy life at home with her family would make no sense as it would denote she is still at home.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on January 29, 2014, 08:26:23 AM
You are an engineer John. I am too. To let 20% light in, then there have to be gaps of 20%. Huge gaps!
Are you saying that the slats were openable, like venetian blinds? cos i dont think they were ... but I am happy to be proved wrong.
On trips abroad when I have used shutters (rarely) the light exclusion has been absolute
They aren't solid Sadie. Did you not look at the example which Angelo posted a few days back? They are slatted and can be adjusted very simply to let some light and air in.
Assuming the shutter is fully down with the slats completely closed, To open the slats one simply pulls the strap. The slats then begin to separate and open starting at the top of the shutter, once all the slats are open the shutter will begin to rise. A very simple, tried and tested mechanism which has been used in all Mediterranean countries for years.
The shutter below is open at the top but closed at the bottom. By adjusting the tension in the pull strap the openings can be set to any desired level of light.
(http://i.imgur.com/reqJPCC.jpg?1)
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on January 29, 2014, 09:12:02 AM
Here is a short video which clearly shows how some light gets through the shutters when properly set. Watch as the light disappears as the shutter is fully lowered/closed.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 29, 2014, 10:02:03 AM
If we look at children reported missing by parents I think you will find that in the majority of cases no parental involvement...cant do it now but lets start the ball rolling...Jamie Bulger...Ben Needham ..Jessica chapman.. Holly Wills, Millie Dowling
The statistics support the fact that in the majority of cases there is parental involvement. You are sighting cases where there was not parental involvement - that is a small minority of cases. The fact that they got such an enormous amount of publicity was because that kind of stranger abduction, is very rare. It also sells newspapers as it taps into parental fear and anxiety and creates an atmosphere of pananoia.
I presume that the McCanns were seeking to generate such an atmosphere. The chaos, confusion, dread and so on. It is all colourfully described in Kate's book which reads more like a piece of fiction than anything else.
Some of the purple passages are just cringe worthy and, as I have written before, they do not ring true because it takes time to process traumatic events. In the first instance, the response is more likely to be either one of intense clarity and focus (in order to achieve the best outcome, knowing that panic is counter-productive) or possibly denial or dissociation.
The type of 'blind panic' described so passionately in Kate's book - which she claims she felt within a few minutes of finding Madeleine missing - does not ring true.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 29, 2014, 10:09:58 AM
And neither do other aspects of their story. The entire edifice is based on a single assumption. Which is that the McCanns are telling the truth. Why would it be that the McCanns and their friends are the sole purveys of this commodity? They have certainly been very quick to challenge and sue those who do not believe their version of events.
The only truthful explanation for Madeleine's disappearance, if the McCanns and their friends had no prior knowledge or were completely innocent of anything to do with it, would be that they did not know what happened to Madeleine. But that is not what they said. They cannot 'know' what happened to Madeleine unless they were there when it happened or unless they had something to do with it.
That's relatively amateur detective work, don't you think?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 29, 2014, 10:14:07 AM
And neither do other aspects of their story. The entire edifice is based on a single assumption. Which is that the McCanns are telling the truth. Why would it be that the McCanns and their friends are the sole purveys of this commodity? They have certainly been very quick to challenge and sue those who do not believe their version of events.
The only truthful explanation for Madeleine's disappearance, if the McCanns and their friends had no prior knowledge or were completely innocent of anything to do with it, would be that they did not know what happened to Madeleine. But that is not what they said. They cannot 'know' what happened to Madeleine unless they were there when it happened or unless they had something to do with it.
That's relatively amateur detective work, don't you think?
Succinctly put j.rob
8@??)( 8@??)( 8@??)(
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 12:01:56 PM
They aren't solid Sadie. Did you not look at the example which Angelo posted a few days back? They are slatted and can be adjusted very simply to let some light and air in.
Assuming the shutter is fully down with the slats completely closed, To open the slats one simply pulls the strap. The slats then begin to separate and open starting at the top of the shutter, once all the slats are open the shutter will begin to rise. A very simple, tried and tested mechanism which has been used in all Mediterranean countries for years.
Yes, I appreciate they were slatted but when left closed, including slats, then NO light would enter.
The Mccanns left them closed.
For any light to have got in, per Matts statement, seems someone had opened the slats or lifted the whole blind. And this indicates that the abduction had taken place by the time that Matt checked the children ... or at the very least, the abductor had had a look in.
Can you tell me, with complete knowledge of this actual shutter .... could the slats, as opposed to the whole shutter, be opened by outside interference only?
We know that the whole shutter could be temporarily lifted from outside but could the slats have been permanently opened from outside. Anyone know?
Heri ? Are you there, please ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 29, 2014, 12:16:53 PM
Yes, I appreciate they were slatted but when left closed, including slats, then NO light would enter.
The Mccanns left them closed.
For any light to have got in, per Matts statement, seems someone had opened the slats or lifted the whole blind. And this indicates that the abduction had taken place by the time that Matt checked the children ... or at the very least, the abductor had had a look in.
Can you tell me, with complete knowledge of this actual shutter .... could the slats, as opposed to the whole shutter, be opened by outside interference only?
We know that the whole shutter could be temporarily lifted from outside but could the slats have been permanently opened from outside. Anyone know?
Heri ? Are you there, please ?
Now if you are as you claim an engineer, you would appreciate that you would n ot get a perfect seal, let alone taking into account refraction or reflection of light from/on different surfaces.
You assume the mccanns left them closed, but you do not know that as a fact.
As to abduction, UNPROVEN.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 12:22:45 PM
And neither do other aspects of their story. The entire edifice is based on a single assumption. Which is that the McCanns are telling the truth. Why would it be that the McCanns and their friends are the sole purveys of this commodity? They have certainly been very quick to challenge and sue those who do not believe their version of events.
The only truthful explanation for Madeleine's disappearance, if the McCanns and their friends had no prior knowledge or were completely innocent of anything to do with it, would be that they did not know what happened to Madeleine. But that is not what they said. They cannot 'know' what happened to Madeleine unless they were there when it happened or unless they had something to do with it.
That's relatively amateur detective work, don't you think?
I dread to think of the sort of people in your life, that you can think all these people are liars.
My experience of people has been the opposite.
I would add that I regularly mix with doctors and professional people, like the Tapas group ... but also with all stratas of society. I do not hold it against people that they are poor, of a different religion, nationality ... or skin colour.
Most people are honest. I would rate both Kate and Jane as being transparently 100% honest. Just where are you coming from j.rob?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 29, 2014, 12:25:58 PM
I dread to think of the sort of people in your life, that you can think all these people are liars.
My experience of people has been the opposite.
I would add that I regularly mix with doctors and professional people, like the Tapas group ... but also with all stratas of society. I do not hold it against people that they are poor, of a different religion, nationality ... or skin colour.
Most people are honest. I would rate both Kate and Jane as being transparently 100% honest. Just where are you coming from j.rob?
You do not know the mccanns have been 'transparent' or 'honest'.
That is your belief and no more than that.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 12:30:47 PM
Now if you are as you claim an engineer, you would appreciate that you would n ot get a perfect seal, let alone taking into account refraction or reflection of light from/on different surfaces.
You assume the mccanns left them closed, but you do not know that as a fact.
As to abduction, UNPROVEN.
What sort of people do you mix with Stephen, that you disbelieve everything the Tapas group say? To do with the Madeleine case, you only disbelieve the Mccanns and their supporters.
... false comment removed ...
Oh, on a lighter note: We won the Ashes ! That should bring a smile to your face !
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 29, 2014, 12:32:55 PM
It's much easier to take one's beliefs for reality than make reality one's belief.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 29, 2014, 12:40:27 PM
What sort of people do you mix with Stephen, that you disbelieve everything the Tapas group say? To do with the Madeleine case, you only disbelieve the Mccanns and their supporters.
In preference you chose to believe a criminal, a twice Court proven liar (perjury)
What does that say about you?
Oh, on a lighter note: We won the Ashes ! That should bring a smile to your face !
On the ashes, well done to the women's team. Perhaps some of their male counterparts could learn a thing or too.
As to Amaral, I don't believe everything he says. Sorry to disappoint you on that.
Meanwhile, if as I believe Madeleine died as a result of an accident, the mccanns have something to hide, though I don't believe all the tapas members knew what happened.
However, on record was the meeting of the entire group at the Rothley Hotel on their return to the UK.
Was that to make sure they all told the SAME STORY ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 12:41:32 PM
You do not know the mccanns have been 'transparent' or 'honest'.
That is your belief and no more than that.
I am quite a good judge of character, with huge experience of life at many levels. I have dealt with adults and children from all walks of life for over 75 years.
I have also met and talked briefly with Kate. I have witnessed her openess with the PJ, admitting things that others might have kept their mouths shut about.
I have seen Jane Tanner on video, having to put up with her words and observations being overuled by a forgetful Gerry .... then breaking her heart as she recalls that "if only she had realised the relevance of her sighting of a man carrying a child" on that fateful night.
Seems that most of your experience of life is in the classroom or with a very narrow group of people ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 29, 2014, 12:45:58 PM
I am quite a good judge of character, with huge experience of life at many levels. I have dealt with adults and children from all walks of life for over 75 years.
I have also met and talked briefly with Kate. I have witnessed her openess with the PJ, admitting things that others might have kept their mouths shut about.
I have seen Jane Tanner on video, having to put up with her words and observations being overuled by a forgetful Gerry .... then breaking her heart as she recalls that "if only she had realised the relevance of her sighting of a man carrying a child" on that fateful night.
Seems that most of your experience of life is in the classroom or with a very narrow group of people ?
To the contrary sadie.
My experience of people is extensive and far beyond the classroom.
I also can see when people lie.
I recommend you STRONGLY and I mean STRONGLY watch videos of the mccanns and their non-verbal and verbal responses.
Very revealing.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 12:49:18 PM
What sort of people do you mix with Stephen, that you disbelieve everything the Tapas group say? To do with the Madeleine case, you only disbelieve the Mccanns and their supporters.
... false comment removed ...
Oh, on a lighter note: We won the Ashes ! That should bring a smile to your face !
Admin. What false comment am I supposed to have made?
You realise that you are calling me a liar. Please explain publicly
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 29, 2014, 01:06:13 PM
The statistics support the fact that in the majority of cases there is parental involvement. You are sighting cases where there was not parental involvement - that is a small minority of cases. The fact that they got such an enormous amount of publicity was because that kind of stranger abduction, is very rare. It also sells newspapers as it taps into parental fear and anxiety and creates an atmosphere of pananoia.
I presume that the McCanns were seeking to generate such an atmosphere. The chaos, confusion, dread and so on. It is all colourfully described in Kate's book which reads more like a piece of fiction than anything else.
Some of the purple passages are just cringe worthy and, as I have written before, they do not ring true because it takes time to process traumatic events. In the first instance, the response is more likely to be either one of intense clarity and focus (in order to achieve the best outcome, knowing that panic is counter-productive) or possibly denial or dissociation.
The type of 'blind panic' described so passionately in Kate's book - which she claims she felt within a few minutes of finding Madeleine missing - does not ring true.
I'M citing cases where children have been reported missing and a police investigation has followed...the statistics show that most are genuine...contradict them with actual cases if you can...what happened to your claim that I was lying and you had statistics to back it up re fatal accidents in the home..it seems that you have been found out to be the liar.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 29, 2014, 01:08:45 PM
My experience of people is extensive and far beyond the classroom.
I also can see when people lie.
I recommend you STRONGLY and I mean STRONGLY watch videos of the mccanns and their non-verbal and verbal responses.
Very revealing.
You are basing your opinions..and that's all they are ..on your judgement...I think you are totally deluded and it seems that SY agree with me...non verbal responses..you are talking about junk science
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Carana on January 29, 2014, 03:14:26 PM
Statistically speaking, what percentage of those were taken from their holiday apartment after having been left alone by their parents night after night?
What were the statistics as at Sept 10 2001 about two commercial flights deliberately flying into the Twin Towers?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 29, 2014, 03:18:43 PM
And neither do other aspects of their story. The entire edifice is based on a single assumption. Which is that the McCanns are telling the truth. Why would it be that the McCanns and their friends are the sole purveys of this commodity? They have certainly been very quick to challenge and sue those who do not believe their version of events.
The only truthful explanation for Madeleine's disappearance, if the McCanns and their friends had no prior knowledge or were completely innocent of anything to do with it, would be that they did not know what happened to Madeleine. But that is not what they said. They cannot 'know' what happened to Madeleine unless they were there when it happened or unless they had something to do with it.
That's relatively amateur detective work, don't you think?
How one interprets this kind of thing says as much about the interpreter as the person or people whose actions are being interpreted, as Sadie and others are mentioning.
A cynic is going to say that the McCanns have been quick to sue and attempt to silence people because they are concerned about certain truths coming out, or that they have manipulative and controlling characters.
A different kind of person could interpret the decision to sue as an indication that the McCanns and others have very good reason to believe that their 'version of events' is correct.
So assuming a negative reason for the McCanns' actions is a personal view, nothing more.
Isn't it this type of so-called analysis, almost entirely subjective in nature as it is , that is amateurish?
No attachment to statistics, facts, or anything proven whatsoever.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Jean-Pierre on January 29, 2014, 03:58:53 PM
How one interprets this kind of thing says as much about the interpreter as the person or people whose actions are being interpreted, as Sadie and others are mentioning.
A cynic is going to say that the McCanns have been quick to sue and attempt to silence people because they are concerned about certain truths coming out, or that they have manipulative and controlling characters.
A different kind of person could interpret the decision to sue as an indication that the McCanns and others have very good reason to believe that their 'version of events' is correct.
So assuming a negative reason for the McCanns' actions is a personal view, nothing more.
Isn't it this type of so-called analysis, almost entirely subjective in nature as it is , that is amateurish?
No attachment to statistics, facts, or anything proven whatsoever.
Well put Sherlock.
If one considers, as a practical example, their actions against Anthony Bennett. He was conducting a very peronal campaign against them, straying far into defamation territory, as well as leafletting neighbours etc.
Eventually they threatened action, and settled for an undertaking not to continue his campaign. It was only when he contunually and deliberately broke that undertaking that they took further action in the high court. And that was pitched at the minimum level required to "encourage" him to desist.
So far from being "very quick to challenge and sue those who do not believe their version of events" they have been very measured in their response.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 29, 2014, 03:59:36 PM
What were the statistics at May 2 2007 about a little girl being deliberately smacked in the flat G5A of Praia da Luz ?
That's precisely the point, my dear Anne.
As Jean-Pierre says, the matter is binary: either she was smacked in the flat or she wasn't.
To say there was an 86% chance - or whatever figure you want to quote - is meaningless. Equally, saying there was a zero per cent chance of a very specific thing happening is meaningless also. Obviously we're not going to have figures for these things.
The bottom line is, once again, that in any given case, either something was or it wasn't.
Heriberto speaks on this at length - and gives a far more scientific explanation than me - as you will recall.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 29, 2014, 04:03:28 PM
As Jean-Pierre says, the matter is binary: either she was smacked in the flat or she wasn't.
To say there was an 86% chance - or whatever figure you want to quote - is meaningless. Equally, saying there was a zero per cent chance of a very specific thing happening is meaningless also. Obviously we're not going to have figures for these things.
The bottom line is, once again, that in a given particular case, either something was or it wasn't.
Heriberto speaks on this at length - and gives a far more scientific explanation than me - as you will recall.
I was obviously kidding.. Stats are a very useful ploy for who knows how to interpret them. It is quite a tough task and requests knowledge in many areas. I don't recall any scientific explanation by Heriberto, sorry !
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 29, 2014, 04:08:39 PM
I was obviously kidding.. Stats are a very useful ploy for who knows how to interpret them. It is quite a tough task and requests knowledge in many areas. I don't recall any scientific explanation by Heriberto, sorry !
I know you were kidding, Anne!
One of your intelligence would have to be.
Heriberto writes about it on his site, I think. And I believe it's a well-discussed point in academia that the individual case is the individual case, whatever else could be said about it in global terms.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 29, 2014, 04:18:08 PM
Heriberto writes about it on his site, I think. And I believe it's a well-discussed point in academia that the individual case is the individual case, whatever else could be said about it in global terms.
Stats are better left to statisticians who are the only ones capable to take them with the due pinch of salt they require.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 29, 2014, 04:22:39 PM
Of course. I should have been more precise "on average"
I trust we are not going to start on actuarial jokes....
I would have to get son-in-law for those. 8)--))
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 04:45:48 PM
On a serious note. J-P please correct me if I am wrong.
Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted.. « Reply #816 on: Today at 12:49:18 PM » Quote from: sadie on Today at 12:30:47 PM
Quote
What sort of people do you mix with Stephen, that you disbelieve everything the Tapas group say? To do with the Madeleine case, you only disbelieve the Mccanns and their supporters.
... false comment removed ...
Oh, on a lighter note: We won the Ashes ! That should bring a smile to your face !
Re: ... false comment removed ... implying that I was lying
Mr Moderator.
Thank you for your private message. I asked for this to be sorted publicly. A public accusation requires a public apology and the removal of the accusation
From your PM, I can see that you believe that Amaral is not a criminal per se. I can also see that you think ** he was unfortunate to attract one conviction for falsefying a document and you think that is a big difference ! You invite me to edit my post accordingly.! **
I am very aware that the main thrust of this forum seems to be about supporting Amaral at any cost. What I said is entirely correct. He is a criminal for life now ... sorry but it is the truth. His word cannot be trusted. He has told a calculated and serious lie to the courts and reaped the punishment. He is a perjurer.
I am afraid that you are not correct. Amaral is technically, and in FACT, a criminal... See below
http://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/criminal A criminal is someone who breaks the law. If you're a murderer, thief, or tax cheat, you're a criminal.
When you think of criminals, your first thought might be of someone awful like a murderer. But this word is a lot broader — Anyone who breaks the law is technically a criminal, even if the crime is just not paying a speeding ticket. -snipped-
DEFINITIONS OF: criminal
1 n someone who has committed a crime or has been legally convicted of a crime
Synonyms: crook, felon, malefactor, outlaw Type of: principal (criminal law) any person involved in a criminal offense, regardless of whether the person profits from such involvement-snipped-
It appears Amaral was trying to change the course of a Criminal trial by falsifying documents. A very serious crime. More so because Amaral was a senior Police Officer whose job was to uphold the Law. He is very lucky to have got off with just a suspended sentence of only 18 months.
Tbh, I find it hard to believe that you think he was unfortunate to have been convicted of such a heinious crime
I would ask you to re-instate my post, because altho you do not like it, what I said is the truth. He is a common criminal and no forum should hide the truth.
And I would be grateful if you would please immediately remove your line ** ... false comment removed ... ** which implies that I am lying
I am doubly sorry that this accusation about me was made, because it hurts me and it hurts you too. Was it Angelo who said it? He was on forum at the time and has shown that he has it in for me.
Please leave this up until this time tomorrow, when everyone who has seen the JF public implication of dishonesty, will have had chance to read it
.... or alternatively, remove the comment, re-instate the post, and make a public apology
Thankyou
sadie
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Jean-Pierre on January 29, 2014, 04:55:55 PM
Sadie - I dont want to be drawn into the nuts and bolts of this, and also do not want to derail this thread.
But clearly Amaral was tried and found guilty of a criminal offence in a Portuguese court. His attempts to have the verdict overturned on appeal failed. The offence was not trivial - it was sufficiently serious to attract a custodial sentence of 18 months, (suspended). He therefore does have a criminal record.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 05:03:43 PM
Sadie - I dont want to be drawn into the nuts and bolts of this, and also do not want to derail this thread.
But clearly Amaral was tried and found guilty of a criminal offence in a Portuguese court. His attempts to have the verdict overturned on appeal failed. The offence was not trivial - it was sufficiently serious to attract a custodial sentence of 18 months, (suspended). He therefore does have a criminal record.
Thank you J-P. So I am right that I can properly call him a criminal am I not?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 29, 2014, 05:05:26 PM
Sadie - I dont want to be drawn into the nuts and bolts of this, and also do not want to derail this thread.
But clearly Amaral was tried and found guilty of a criminal offence in a Portuguese court. His attempts to have the verdict overturned on appeal failed. The offence was not trivial - it was sufficiently serious to attract a custodial sentence of 18 months, (suspended). He therefore does have a criminal record.
Why is it that people should want to deny amaral is a criminal when he has been convicted in court wheras its ok to accuse the mccanns who have been convicted of nothing
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 29, 2014, 05:07:08 PM
There's a tendency, on this forum and by some poster, to twist anything related to Mr Amaral, a person nobody would care of, had he not committed the sin to doubt the McCann's narrative. This post by Serendipity went whooshed, don't know why, some days ago (I saved it before). Amaral was found guilty of a crime of false allegation based on his testimony that it was his belief that the report that Cardoso had submitted was true. Ergo he was convicted on a technicality not because he lied or perjured himself.
It also now transpires that Leonor Cipriano lied about being tortured by the PJ hence having an extra 7 months added to her sentence. So essentially Cardoso and Amaral should never have found themselves in the dock being charged with anything.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 29, 2014, 05:09:40 PM
Why is it that people should want to deny amaral is a criminal when he has been convicted in court wheras its ok to accuse the mccanns who have been convicted of nothing
POW !
BRILLIANT OBSERVATION ... 8@??)( @)(++(* 8((()*/
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 29, 2014, 05:10:44 PM
There's a tendency, on this forum and by some poster, to twist anything related to Mr Amaral, a person nobody would care of but had he not committed the sin to doubt the McCann's narrative. This post by Serendipity went whooshed, don't know why, some days ago (I saved it before). Amaral was found guilty of a crime of false allegation based on his testimony that it was his belief that the report that Cardoso had submitted was true. Ergo he was convicted on a technicality not because he lied or perjured himself.
It also now transpires that Leonor Cipriano lied about being tortured by the PJ hence having an extra 7 months added to her sentence. So essentially Cardoso and Amaral should never have found themselves in the dock being charged with anything.
Your spin doesn't work and is derisable...amaral is a convicted criminal..fact
the second part of your post in red is a deliberate attempt to mislead...the court...and amnesty confirm that Cipriano was tortured...thus amaral is just as guilty as it always was...this sort of posts destroys your credibility totally ..imo
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 05:10:58 PM
Why is it that people should want to deny amaral is a criminal when he has been convicted in court wheras its ok to accuse the mccanns who have been convicted of nothing
Dr Amaral was given an 18 month suspended sentence suspended for 18 months so he has now done his time as it were but has a criminal record no arguments there. Somewhere in all the dross I posted that this issue potentially coming round the corner at the PJ was a more realistic reason for shoving him off sideways than all the conspiracy theories involving Gordon Brown et al. None the less bent copper does not = poor copper; just makes him an unreliable witness for the prosecution because the defence not unreasonably would play the bent copper card so exit stage left Dr Amaral.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 06:01:39 PM
Sorry this is so delayed. Was interupted by other thngs when this was mainly finished. Am posting anyway. Please dont let it interrupt the flow of the thread.
I think everyone..including the McCanns accept that maddie is almost certainly dead...there is a very slight chance she may be alive.
I disagree with you here Davel.
1. Almost for sure that was Madeleine in Zinat, in Morocco, being carried an the man/womans back. It certainly wasn't Bushra. [Zinat, in the Rif Mountains of Morocco is at the centre of the cannabis growing region of Morocco. The cannabis region is vast and it supplies, IIRC at least 50% of the worlds cannabis] Harems of children are kept in N Africa by European businessmen
2. The little girl walking around the bank in Molenbeek, Brussels, was almost certainly Madeleine as well. The little girl, not only looked like Madeleine ..but also. a) She had her type of lightly boned figure, movement and mannerisms. b) Her kilt colour was very interesting as was her Argll sweater. That was not a cheap imitation kilt as usually worn by kids. It appeared a real and quality kilt from the way it hung and moved, which indicates some Scottish connection and considerable wealth. From the colour, I think I might know what tartan it was, but I aint sharing. c) Moleenbeek is the main port receiving Kif (cannabis] from the Rif Mountains [Molenbeek is the main port for the Cannabis, from the Rif, to be sent to and processed before distributing around the World.]
3. Madeleine was also sighted in Leh, remote and very high in the Himalayas, India. [From memory 70 or 80% of all the hashish smoked in India comes into India via Leh. Leh is on the old silk routes.
So three sightings in the three main Cannabis related places. That is an enormous co-incidence
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action." — Auric Goldfinger,
For your infoCannabis = kif = hashish = lots of other drug names too. Maybe Wspam can help with the names? She seems to know about them
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 29, 2014, 06:07:22 PM
Sorry this is so delayed. Was interupted by other thngs when this was mainly finished. Am posting anyway. Please dont let it interrupt the flow of the thread. I disagree with you here Davel.
1. Almost for sure that was Madeleine in Zinat, in Morocco, being carried an the man/womans back. It certainly wasn't Bushra. [Zinat, in the Rif Mountains of Morocco is at the centre of the cannabis growing region of Morocco. The cannabis region is vast and it supplies, IIRC at least 50% of the worlds cannabis] Harems of children are kept in N Africa by European businessmen
2. The little girl walking around the bank in Molenbeek, Brussels, was almost certainly Madeleine as well. The little girl, not only looked like Madeleine ..but also. a) She had her type of lightly boned figure, movement and mannerisms. b) Her kilt colour was very interesting as was her Argll sweater. That was not a cheap imitation kilt as usually worn by kids. It appeared a real and quality kilt from the way it hung and moved, which indicates some Scottish connection and considerable wealth. From the colour, I think I might know what tartan it was, but I aint sharing. c) Moleenbeek is the main port receiving Kif (cannabis] from the Rif Mountains [Molenbeek is the main port for the Cannabis, from the Rif, to be sent to and processed before distributing around the World.]
3. Madeleine was also sighted in Leh, remote and very high in the Himalayas, India. [From memory 70 or 80% of all the hashish smoked in India comes into India via Leh. Leh is on the old silk routes.
So three sightings in the three main Cannabis related places. That is an enormous co-incidence
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action." — Auric Goldfinger,
For your infoCannabis = kif = hashish = lots of other drug names too. Maybe Wspam can help with the names? She seems to know about them
Tin foil time.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: icabodcrane on January 29, 2014, 06:08:30 PM
Sorry this is so delayed. Was interupted by other thngs when this was mainly finished. Am posting anyway. Please dont let it interrupt the flow of the thread. I disagree with you here Davel.
1. Almost for sure that was Madeleine in Zinat, in Morocco, being carried an the man/womans back. It certainly wasn't Bushra. [Zinat, in the Rif Mountains of Morocco is at the centre of the cannabis growing region of Morocco. The cannabis region is vast and it supplies, IIRC at least 50% of the worlds cannabis] Harems of children are kept in N Africa by European businessmen
2. The little girl walking around the bank in Molenbeek, Brussels, was almost certainly Madeleine as well. The little girl, not only looked like Madeleine ..but also. a) She had her type of lightly boned figure, movement and mannerisms. b) Her kilt colour was very interesting as was her Argll sweater. That was not a cheap imitation kilt as usually worn by kids. It appeared a real and quality kilt from the way it hung and moved, which indicates some Scottish connection and considerable wealth. From the colour, I think I might know what tartan it was, but I aint sharing. c) Moleenbeek is the main port receiving Kif (cannabis] from the Rif Mountains [Molenbeek is the main port for the Cannabis, from the Rif, to be sent to and processed before distributing around the World.]
3. Madeleine was also sighted in Leh, remote and very high in the Himalayas, India. [From memory 70 or 80% of all the hashish smoked in India comes into India via Leh. Leh is on the old silk routes.
So three sightings in the three main Cannabis related places. That is an enormous co-incidence
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action." — Auric Goldfinger,
For your infoCannabis = kif = hashish = lots of other drug names too. Maybe Wspam can help with the names? She seems to know about them
You are a fantasist sadie
The typical ramblings above are a discredit to the forum
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 29, 2014, 06:27:20 PM
Given that rule, I should be well within my rights to call you a paranoid delusional fantasist.
Call me what you like. It is water off a ducks back.
Shame you cant take on board that Amaral is a Criminal. His crime was heinious. Trying to pervert the Course of Justice to deny a tortured and almost certainly wrongly jailed woamn her rights.
Are you one of those that believes in one Law for the Rich and another for the poor?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 07:03:09 PM
Call me what you like. It is water off a ducks back.
Shame you cant take on board that Amaral is a Criminal. His crime was heinious. Trying to pervert the Course of Justice to deny a tortured and almost certainly wrongly jailed woamn her rights.
Are you one of those that believes in one Law for the Rich and another for the poor?
I don't give a flying f... fling about Dr Amaral. He could be in prison for the rest of his life and it would mean literally nothing to me.
He is not my friend, nor my enemy. He holds no fascination for me at all.
Sadie, Madeleine has not been seen since may 2007. She is almost certainly dead. Even davel recognises that and hes... DAVEL!
If you mention the colour of her kilt again, as soon kind of special sign, I might actually cry in frustration!
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 29, 2014, 07:16:12 PM
Trouble is if everyone used it, there would be 2 Forums.
Yes if there was no intersection. In fact if one poster is on your list and not on mine and if I reply to his/her post, you'll see this post, supposing I'm not on your ignore list.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 29, 2014, 07:59:09 PM
Yes if there was no intersection. In fact if one poster is on your list and not on mine and if I reply to his/her post, you'll see this post, supposing I'm not on your ignore list.
could you translate that into English...and you wonder why I question the accuracy of the twice translated witness statements
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 29, 2014, 08:13:44 PM
Call me what you like. It is water off a ducks back.
Shame you cant take on board that Amaral is a Criminal. His crime was heinious. Trying to pervert the Course of Justice to deny a tortured and almost certainly wrongly jailed woamn her rights.
Are you one of those that believes in one Law for the Rich and another for the poor?
You mean the woman who cruelly abused her daughter, had an incestuous relationship with her brother and then (predictably - if you are of criminal inclination) claimed that she had been beaten up in order to exert a confession? Yeah, right, she is as innocent as a baby lamb and the man who brought justice to an innocent dead child is a nasty liar.
Nice try!
Just check out the details of that child's life prior to her murder. It is not pleasant reading. But then her mother was not a pleasant person.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 29, 2014, 10:10:23 PM
could you translate that into English...and you wonder why I question the accuracy of the twice translated witness statements
They are a damn sight more accurate than other people's witness statements which changed, were inconsistent and generally unbelievable.
Hey ho...tick tock goes the clock. You can fool some of the people all the time or all of the people some of the time but you cannot fool all the people all the time.
The public are sick of the McCircus. The amount of public money spent on what should and could have been a relatively straightforward crime is obscene.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 29, 2014, 10:31:35 PM
They are a damn sight more accurate than other people's witness statements which changed, were inconsistent and generally unbelievable.
Hey ho...tick tock goes the clock. You can fool some of the people all the time or all of the people some of the time but you cannot fool all the people all the time.
The public are sick of the McCircus. The amount of public money spent on what should and could have been a relatively straightforward crime is obscene.
What happened to the evidence you claimed you had re accidents
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Air Con on January 29, 2014, 10:31:50 PM
Firstly, hello all. New here.
Was pointed in this direction by some of Anne's postings on another forum as this case has always intrigued me. But certainly not to the extent of knowledge shown by many posters.
Sorry this is so delayed. Was interupted by other thngs when this was mainly finished. Am posting anyway. Please dont let it interrupt the flow of the thread. I disagree with you here Davel.
1. Almost for sure that was Madeleine in Zinat, in Morocco, being carried an the man/womans back. It certainly wasn't Bushra. [Zinat, in the Rif Mountains of Morocco is at the centre of the cannabis growing region of Morocco. The cannabis region is vast and it supplies, IIRC at least 50% of the worlds cannabis] Harems of children are kept in N Africa by European businessmen
2. The little girl walking around the bank in Molenbeek, Brussels, was almost certainly Madeleine as well. The little girl, not only looked like Madeleine ..but also. a) She had her type of lightly boned figure, movement and mannerisms. b) Her kilt colour was very interesting as was her Argll sweater. That was not a cheap imitation kilt as usually worn by kids. It appeared a real and quality kilt from the way it hung and moved, which indicates some Scottish connection and considerable wealth. From the colour, I think I might know what tartan it was, but I aint sharing. c) Moleenbeek is the main port receiving Kif (cannabis] from the Rif Mountains [Molenbeek is the main port for the Cannabis, from the Rif, to be sent to and processed before distributing around the World.]
3. Madeleine was also sighted in Leh, remote and very high in the Himalayas, India. [From memory 70 or 80% of all the hashish smoked in India comes into India via Leh. Leh is on the old silk routes.
So three sightings in the three main Cannabis related places. That is an enormous co-incidence
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action." — Auric Goldfinger,
For your infoCannabis = kif = hashish = lots of other drug names too. Maybe Wspam can help with the names? She seems to know about them
Secondly.
Really?
Are you seriously saying you believe that?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 29, 2014, 10:34:42 PM
Welcome Air Con
8((()*/
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 10:55:53 PM
I don't give a flying f... fling about Dr Amaral. He could be in prison for the rest of his life and it would mean literally nothing to me.
He is not my friend, nor my enemy. He holds no fascination for me at all.
Sadie, Madeleine has not been seen since may 2007. She is almost certainly dead. Even davel recognises that and hes... DAVEL!
If you mention the colour of her kilt again, as soon kind of special sign, I might actually cry in frustration!
First of all may i apologise for my not being around much. Three significant family tragedies in less than 3 weeks ... and the effects still seriously affecting us are taking most of my time.
I am not fascinated by Amaral either, so we agree on something.
You are not party to some of the things that point to her being alive, but you are able to understand the massive co-incidences that she should have been sighted in the three main cannabis regions. Three co-incidences all linked with Canabis and drug trafficking.
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action." — Auric Goldfinger,
Remember sightings of Madeleine: 1) Being carried on the back of a man/woman in the Rif mountains of Morocco, where most of the Worlds supply of cannabis is grown and an area where western business men keep harems of children. In Morocco they call the basic stuff, Kif.
2) Walking around the bank in Molenbeek St John, Brussels, Molenbeek St John is the main port for packaging, distribution and also for changing the nature of the basic Kif into the various forms of the drugs .. cannabis, hemp, hashish etc. Molenbeek is also highly populated by Moroccan peeps from The Rif Mountains < another link
3) Ley in the high Himalayas in India. This is the town thru which 70% -80% of the Hashish smoked in India enters the Country. A remote spot, 2 days drive by an extraordinarily dangerous road from any major lowland town. This small/ medium town appears to have little to offer except for intrepid mountaineers, yet boasts a well contructed air strip over a mile long. I cannot imagine anyone normally taking a young child there for a hoiday. It is on the ancient silk routes, along which various narcotic drugs passed both ways
If you were an investigator, investigating a certain person, then the overall colour of that kilt might be of great interest .... cos as I can assure you even in a tartan, if blurred /indistinct, the colours within the tartan would mix to a specific colour. Likewise that colour could be unscrambled to a specific tartan or maybe a few similar ones, depending on how sophisticated the "unscrambling" equipment was.
If that is worrying to you, get those tissues out and have a good blab. Be my guest
I have reason to think that Madeleine was alive two years ago. I cannot share this and it is by no means certian, in any case. There was a further sighting reported in this forum, on a Mediteranean island last autumn
Sorry if you cant take it
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 29, 2014, 10:58:16 PM
They are a damn sight more accurate than other people's witness statements which changed, were inconsistent and generally unbelievable.
Hey ho...tick tock goes the clock. You can fool some of the people all the time or all of the people some of the time but you cannot fool all the people all the time.
The public are sick of the McCircus. The amount of public money spent on what should and could have been a relatively straightforward crime is obscene.
My bet is that in unscrambling the Madeleine case, several others will be unscrambled as well.
Just like in the Jimmy Saville case.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 29, 2014, 11:02:12 PM
First of all may i apologise for my not being around much. Three significant family tragedies in less than 3 weeks ... and the effects still seriously affecting us are taking most of my time.
I am not fascinated by Amaral either, so we agree on something.
You are not party to some of the things that point to her being alive, but you are able to understand the massive co-incidences that she should have been sighted in the three main cannabis regions. Three co-incidences all linked with Canabis and drug trafficking.
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action." — Auric Goldfinger,
Remember sightings of Madeleine: 1) Being carried on the back of a man/woman in the Rif mountains of Morocco, where most of the Worlds supply of cannabis is grown and an area where western business men keep harems of children. In Morocco they call the basic stuff, Kif.
2) Walking around the bank in Molenbeek St John, Brussels, Molenbeek St John is the main port for packaging, distribution and also for changing the nature of the basic Kif into the various forms of the drugs .. cannabis, hemp, hashish etc. Molenbeek is also highly populated by Moroccan peeps from The Rif Mountains < another link
3) Ley in the high Himalayas in India. This is the town thru which 70% -80% of the Hashish smoked in India enters the Country. A remote spot, 2 days drive by an extraordinarily dangerous road from any major lowland town. This small/ medium town appears to have little to offer except for intrepid mountaineers, yet boasts a well contructed air strip over a mile long. I cannot imagine anyone normally taking a young child there for a hoiday. It is on the ancient silk routes, along which various narcotic drugs passed both ways
If you were an investigator, investigating a certain person, then the overall colour of that kilt might be of great interest .... cos as I can assure you even in a tartan, if blurred /indistinct, the colours within the tartan would mix to a specific colour. Likewise that colour could be unscrambled to a specific tartan or maybe a few similar ones, depending on how sophisticated the "unscrambling" equipment was.
If that is worrying to you, get those tissues out and have a good blab. Be my guest
I have reason to think that Madeleine was alive two years ago. I cannot share this and it is by no means certian, in any case. There was a further sighting reported in this forum, on a Mediteranean island last autumn
Sorry if you cant take it
Stoner Suspects ?>)()<
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 29, 2014, 11:22:08 PM
Thanks anne. 8((()*/ Have long realised that you try and destroy or get rid of Peeps that destroy your myths with logic and fact. @)(++(*
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 30, 2014, 12:43:19 AM
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action." — Auric Goldfinger,
For a laff:
1. Suspect last seen heading towards church 2. Gerry asking for directions to church (alibi in case he was said to be seen there earlier but 4-7am is now ok if he's seen there) 3. Gerry getting keys to church
LOL
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 30, 2014, 12:59:30 AM
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action." — Auric Goldfinger,
For a laff:
1. Suspect last seen heading towards church 2. Gerry asking for directions to church (alibi in case he was said to be seen there earlier but 4-7am is now ok if he's seen there) 3. Gerry getting keys to church
LOL
Don't spend too much time on that key ! Holding a church key is a mcmania.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 30, 2014, 01:04:02 AM
Don't spend too much time on that key ! Holding a church key is a mcmania.
It's a pity there wasn't a camera there because that's where Smithman went in the vicinity of that church. He knew where he was heading IMO. Too many coincidences in regards to the church location to ignore it.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 30, 2014, 01:27:10 AM
It's a pity there wasn't a camera there because that's where Smithman went in the vicinity of that church. He knew where he was heading IMO. Too many coincidences in regards to the church location to ignore it.
I wonder if he thought that a camera could catch him. Churches and their immediate environment are sanctuaries in most people's mental representations.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 30, 2014, 01:45:39 AM
Sadie,
Can you tell us what you think the significance of the kilt is?
Are you wondering if it is possible to identify the child by a clan attachment, or something similar?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 30, 2014, 12:15:51 PM
But obviously there are a lot of criminals that don't get caught. And there again there are people who are wrongly convicted of crimes. Or those who find themselves facing trumped up charges, or who fall into judicial cleft sticks. Or those who are so unpopular with criminals (especially ones that have been caught) that the criminals and those who support them will do absolutely anything to try to throw some dirt at them and get it to stick.
A bit like that poor murdered child Joana's mother who lied that she had been beaten up. But why would a murderer tell the truth?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 30, 2014, 12:19:43 PM
Why is it that people should want to deny amaral is a criminal when he has been convicted in court wheras its ok to accuse the mccanns who have been convicted of nothing
Not yet, no......but they have done their best to try to discredit certain people who do not believe them, haven't they?
And seeing as certain people are throwing stones in the glass-house, let's have a look at the squeaky-clean little people that the McCanns hired after Madeleine's More than a few of them have pasts that are, ahem, not exactly kosher. Methodo, Brian Kennedy.....I could go on but I am sure there are others who can fill in the gaps.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 30, 2014, 12:20:14 PM
But obviously there are a lot of criminals that don't get caught. And there again there are people who are wrongly convicted of crimes. Or those who find themselves facing trumped up charges, or who fall into judicial cleft sticks. Or those who are so unpopular with criminals (especially ones that have been caught) that the criminals and those who support them will do absolutely anything to try to throw some dirt at them and get it to stick.
A bit like that poor murdered child Joana's mother who lied that she had been beaten up. But why would a murderer tell the truth?
You need to get your facts right..she did not lie that she had been beaten by the PJ...the fact that she was beaten by the PJ has never been doubted by the court.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 30, 2014, 12:22:14 PM
I'M citing cases where children have been reported missing and a police investigation has followed...the statistics show that most are genuine...contradict them with actual cases if you can...what happened to your claim that I was lying and you had statistics to back it up re fatal accidents in the home..it seems that you have been found out to be the liar.
I have quoted statistics from Kate McCanns book. Quite frankly I couldn't care less whether you are a liar of not. Of course there are fatal accidents in people's homes. Why wouldn't there be? Look up the statistics yourself, if you are that interested in them.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 30, 2014, 12:24:50 PM
If we look at children reported missing by parents I think you will find that in the majority of cases no parental involvement...cant do it now but lets start the ball rolling...Jamie Bulger...Ben Needham ..Jessica chapman.. Holly Wills, Millie Dowling
According to Kate McCann the majority of completed child abductions are parental/family. Only 16% are not.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 30, 2014, 12:27:56 PM
Evidence is witness statement of Kate and Gerry...that the shutters had been forced upwards....they never said the shutters had been damaged
Your use of the word 'forced' is disingenuous. I presume you mean that the shutters had been opened because there was no evidence for anything else other than that the shutters were open.
Why does that provide evidence of a (paedophile) abduction?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 30, 2014, 12:36:26 PM
You are kidding, right? The chances of a person dying are non-existent?
That is most definitely a lie!! And I have evidence to prove it! @)(++(*
Okay - you have stated that the chances of (Maddie - but it could equally apply to anyone else in an apartment or anywhere else for that matter) are non-existent. That means a 0% chance of Madeleine (or anyone else for that matter) dying.
Well, statistically speaking there is a 100% chance that each and every one of us will die (to my knowledge there is no evidence that a person has lived for ever without dying).
Therefore each person will die, we just don't know when.
Even if conditions in that apartment had been optimal - eg: a responsible baby-sitter, children all fully fit, not having taken medicaments of any sort and so on, you cannot state that there is a 0% chance of one of the children dying.
A child could be sick and choke on vomit. A child could have an underlying condition that cause his or her heart to fail. A child could get out of bed and bang their head. A child could take pills they found lying around.
This could all happen with a babysitter in the next room.
Yes, it is UNLIKELY but it is not IMPOSSIBLE.
I simply am pointing out that the chances of a person dying are 100% - it is just a question of when 8-)(--).
Davell, you really should give up quoting statistics. Or enrol on an advanced statistics course....or....something..... @)(++(*
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 30, 2014, 12:49:09 PM
You need to get your facts right..she did not lie that she had been beaten by the PJ...the fact that she was beaten by the PJ has never been doubted by the court.
The woman has lied repeatedly. And she is in prison for murder.
http://www.mccannfiles.com/id248.html
Anyone else know the definitive judgement in this case?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 30, 2014, 01:04:32 PM
You need to get your facts right..she did not lie that she had been beaten by the PJ...the fact that she was beaten by the PJ has never been doubted by the court.
People can make up their own minds about the woman who you appear to be defending who was convicted of murdering her own child and who lied by claiming that she had mysteriously disappeared.
http://www.mccannfiles.com/id176.html
A little background reading on the mother and her brother who she was having an incestuous relationship with. And check out the background of the child. The mother didn't even bother to take her to school on her first day. Nice people, eh?
She seems to have lied about most things. But why would a woman who murders her own child tell the truth?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 30, 2014, 01:33:16 PM
But why would a woman who murders her own child tell the truth?
Especially since infanticide is the worst crime of all.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 30, 2014, 02:01:29 PM
RoSPA Statistics on accidents in and around the home involving children. They are not in the least uncommon. More than a million a year with the 0-4 year old age group at highest risk.
"Those most at risk from a home accident are the 0-4 years age group. Falls account for the majority of non-fatal accidents while the highest number of deaths are due to fire. Most of these accidents are preventable through increased awareness, improvements in the home environment and greater product safety."
Obviously, if three children under 4 years old are left unattended then there will be a higher likelihood of an accident.
RoSPA Statistics on accidents in and around the home involving children. They are not in the least uncommon. More than a million a year with the 0-4 year old age group at highest risk.
"Those most at risk from a home accident are the 0-4 years age group. Falls account for the majority of non-fatal accidents while the highest number of deaths are due to fire. Most of these accidents are preventable through increased awareness, improvements in the home environment and greater product safety."
Obviously, if three children under 4 years old are left unattended then there will be a higher likelihood of an accident.
Doesn't count j.rob. No statistics from whatever source apply to this case because the behaviour was within the bounds of responsible parenting . It was a spotty face bird on a yacht with a geezer and a bundle wot dunnit innit. QED 8-)(--)
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 30, 2014, 04:17:29 PM
Not yet, no......but they have done their best to try to discredit certain people who do not believe them, haven't they?
And seeing as certain people are throwing stones in the glass-house, let's have a look at the squeaky-clean little people that the McCanns hired after Madeleine's More than a few of them have pasts that are, ahem, not exactly kosher. Methodo, Brian Kennedy.....I could go on but I am sure there are others who can fill in the gaps.
Are you suggesting, j.rob, that the McCanns hired these detectives knowing that they were not straight?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 30, 2014, 05:32:38 PM
The woman has lied repeatedly. And she is in prison for murder.
http://www.mccannfiles.com/id248.html
Anyone else know the definitive judgement in this case?
Background reading suggests that the court believed she had been beaten after a forensic expert examined photographs of the injuries. As no one was found guilty of the beating they must all have been innocent...to paraphrase the usual statements. GA was found guilty of stating that she wasn't beaten based on the say so of his officers who were found not guilty.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: icabodcrane on January 30, 2014, 06:09:06 PM
Are you suggesting, j.rob, that the McCanns hired these detectives knowing that they were not straight?
Are you are refering to the Spanish private eyes, Metodo 3 ? ( who were certainly crooked )
I have always thought a more interesting question is what remit, exactly, were this crew given by the McCanns ?
Why were they involved in that business with Cipriano's lawyer, for instance ? ( and paying him money ) ... what on earth did that have to do with searching for Madeleine ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 30, 2014, 06:58:19 PM
RoSPA Statistics on accidents in and around the home involving children. They are not in the least uncommon. More than a million a year with the 0-4 year old age group at highest risk.
"Those most at risk from a home accident are the 0-4 years age group. Falls account for the majority of non-fatal accidents while the highest number of deaths are due to fire. Most of these accidents are preventable through increased awareness, improvements in the home environment and greater product safety."
Obviously, if three children under 4 years old are left unattended then there will be a higher likelihood of an accident.
you don't seem to be able to understand simple principles..you are quoting figures for NON FATAL accidents.. absolutely pathetic...the report mentions fires as being the highest cause of fatal accidents...was there a fatal fire in 5a that nobody noticed...you mention choking...have you ever seen someone choking to death...she would definitely have woken the twins and the twins would have screamed the place down...did Mrs Fenn hear anything that night...no...
the fact is that no on has been able to come up with a fatal accident scenario that stands up...FACT
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Benice on January 30, 2014, 07:03:54 PM
People can make up their own minds about the woman who you appear to be defending who was convicted of murdering her own child and who lied by claiming that she had mysteriously disappeared.
http://www.mccannfiles.com/id176.html
A little background reading on the mother and her brother who she was having an incestuous relationship with. And check out the background of the child. The mother didn't even bother to take her to school on her first day. Nice people, eh?
She seems to have lied about most things. But why would a woman who murders her own child tell the truth?
Do you know that the court didn't believe the claim of incest - and it was not accepted by them as the motive?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 30, 2014, 07:05:47 PM
People can make up their own minds about the woman who you appear to be defending who was convicted of murdering her own child and who lied by claiming that she had mysteriously disappeared.
http://www.mccannfiles.com/id176.html
A little background reading on the mother and her brother who she was having an incestuous relationship with. And check out the background of the child. The mother didn't even bother to take her to school on her first day. Nice people, eh?
She seems to have lied about most things. But why would a woman who murders her own child tell the truth?
I'm not defending the woman I am defending the truth...she was beaten in custody by the PJ ...that is a fact and is in no doubt...you simply run away from the truth
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 30, 2014, 07:23:46 PM
I'm not defending the woman I am defending the truth...she was beaten in custody by the PJ ...that is a fact and is in no doubt...you simply run away from the truth
The thread in reference to this CONVICT is elsewhere.
HER CONVICTION STILL STANDS.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 30, 2014, 07:28:33 PM
The thread in reference to this CONVICT is elsewhere.
HER CONVICTION STILL STANDS.
Its pathetic that some argue she must hve been tortured or coercedinto making a confession in the first place....whch she did in sept 04 but then she was tortured and coerced into making another confession in october 2004 and then have another confession years later whch the apologists dont accept but say oh she must have made it under duress of torture
She was convicted or murder
Amaral was convicted on a tiny technicality, fall guy for someone
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 30, 2014, 07:31:59 PM
The thread in reference to this CONVICT is elsewhere.
HER CONVICTION STILL STANDS.
perhaps you didn't notice,,perhaps reading is not your strong point but it was j rob who introduced cipriano to this thread... furthermore amarals conviction still stands...a point also raised and disputed by j rob
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on January 30, 2014, 07:34:10 PM
perhaps you didn't notice,,perhaps reading is not your strong point but it was j rob who introduced cipriano to this thread... furthermore amarals conviction still stands...a point also raised and disputed by j rob
I noticed it davel.
However, you wish to use it to damn Amaral, as per usual.
and as per usual, you continue the insults.
So pathetic and so predictable.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 30, 2014, 07:37:19 PM
What a totally ridiculous statement Davel. If you are being choked then you airways are blocked. It is therefore impossible to emit a scream. That is pretty basic stuff.
Furthermore the quote states fires are the main cause of deaths but does not give any percentages nor any other death scenarios therefore you cannot argue that death by choking does not occur.
Some interesting statistics for you Davel......
"More than 90% of deaths from foreign object occur in children younger than 5 years old; 65% of them are infants! (AHA)"
Please feel free to read the rest of the facts on choking. It may enlighten you more.
Another one who cant read...I said the TWINS would scream the place down...reading is pretty basic stuff but perhaps Im asking too much of posters like you. The choking child would thrash about knocking furniture over and make an absolute racket. it also invariably happens at mealtimes when adults are present..
Not quite as smart as you think you are..are you
can YOU come up with an accident scenario
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Cariad on January 30, 2014, 08:53:28 PM
What a totally ridiculous statement Davel. If you are being choked then you airways are blocked. It is therefore impossible to emit a scream. That is pretty basic stuff.
Furthermore the quote states fires are the main cause of deaths but does not give any percentages nor any other death scenarios therefore you cannot argue that death by choking does not occur.
Some interesting statistics for you Davel......
"More than 90% of deaths from foreign object occur in children younger than 5 years old; 65% of them are infants! (AHA)"
Please feel free to read the rest of the facts on choking. It may enlighten you more.
Another one who cant read...I said the TWINS would scream the place down...reading is pretty basic stuff but perhaps Im asking too much of posters like you. The choking child would thrash about knocking furniture over and make an absolute racket. it also invariably happens at mealtimes when adults are present..
Not quite as smart as you think you are..are you
can YOU come up with an accident scenario
Your continued deriding of other posters merely reinforces your insecurity and a false sense of your own importance.
Then again what's new with that. 8(0(*
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on January 30, 2014, 08:59:09 PM
Another one who cant read...I said the TWINS would scream the place down...reading is pretty basic stuff but perhaps Im asking too much of posters like you. The choking child would thrash about knocking furniture over and make an absolute racket. it also invariably happens at mealtimes when adults are present..
Not quite as smart as you think you are..are you
can YOU come up with an accident scenario
You mean the twins would have been easily disturbed?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 30, 2014, 09:02:34 PM
Its absolutely impossible or very rare that madeleine could have had any kind of accident in that flat whilst left alone
>@@(*&)
How utterly pathetic irrational nonsensical and counter to all known facts and statistics is that assertion or suggestion. Leave the stragglers to it that assert abduction is MORE likely to befall a child in their own home, than a fatal accident, dear god, talk about twisting facts! What are the numbers of children dying in their own homes versus ones abducted from them? Big versus tiny!!
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 30, 2014, 09:41:45 PM
Fair cop Davel but at least I'm smart enough to recognise the danger of choking so I'll stick with the choking scenario given that according to one study it's the 4th leading cause of unintentional death amongst under 5's.
Only a fool would dismiss choking as a very real risk. Are you a fool Davel?
what im saying is that if choking occurred it would have been a very noisy episode and would sure to have disturbed someone.....of course according to anne g as no one had ever choked before in 5a the chances of it happennig is zero..
@)(++(*
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 30, 2014, 10:27:06 PM
Its absolutely impossible or very rare that madeleine could have had any kind of accident in that flat whilst left alone
>@@(*&)
How utterly pathetic irrational nonsensical and counter to all known facts and statistics is that assertion or suggestion. Leave the stragglers to it that assert abduction is MORE likely to befall a child in their own home, than a fatal accident, dear god, talk about twisting facts! What are the numbers of children dying in their own homes versus ones abducted from them? Big versus tiny!!
A post displaying almost total ignorance
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Air Con on January 30, 2014, 10:46:39 PM
Another one who cant read...I said the TWINS would scream the place down...reading is pretty basic stuff but perhaps Im asking too much of posters like you. The choking child would thrash about knocking furniture over and make an absolute racket. it also invariably happens at mealtimes when adults are present..
Not quite as smart as you think you are..are you
can YOU come up with an accident scenario
This is the same twins who slept through someone forcing open the shutters and abducting their sister. Allegedly.
The same twins who then, confirmed by all concerned, slept through the entire commotion of Kate screaming "They've taken her" and several dozen people traipsing through the apartment, for several hours, without even stirring?
Yep, you're right. They definitely would have woken up if their sister quietly choked in a corner.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 30, 2014, 11:22:05 PM
Are you are refering to the Spanish private eyes, Metodo 3 ? ( who were certainly crooked )
I have always thought a more interesting question is what remit, exactly, were this crew given by the McCanns ?
Why were they involved in that business with Cipriano's lawyer, for instance ? ( and paying him money ) ... what on earth did that have to do with searching for Madeleine ?
Would there be a remit as such? As far as we can see, whatever remit there appears to have been it was a broad one: to search far and wide for an abducted Madeleine.
I'm afraid I don't know enough about the Cipriano case to comment. I hadn't realised the two cases were connected in this way.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 30, 2014, 11:44:54 PM
Are you are refering to the Spanish private eyes, Metodo 3 ? ( who were certainly crooked )
I have always thought a more interesting question is what remit, exactly, were this crew given by the McCanns ?
Why were they involved in that business with Cipriano's lawyer, for instance ? ( and paying him money ) ... what on earth did that have to do with searching for Madeleine ?
Poor Marcos Aragao Corriera. All he did was thrash Amaral and another PJ Officer [was it Cardosa?] in the Torture case and prove him a Criminal. Such hatred towards him ever since, because of this. This hatred from [ censored word] illustrates just how well he did against crooked dealings ... and such a young Lawyer .... only about 32 at the time.
The more you are hated, the more effective you are. Take note of that fighters for Justice on this forum
No doubt Marcos was much admired for taking on the PJ and a natural choice.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: icabodcrane on January 30, 2014, 11:54:05 PM
Poor Marcos Aragao Corriera. All he did was thrash Amaral and another PJ Officer [was it Cardosa?] in the Torture case and prove him a Criminal. Such hatred towards him ever since, because of this. This hatred from [ censored word] illustrates just how well he did against crooked dealings ... and such a young Lawyer .... only about 32 at the time.
The more you are hated, the more effective you are. Take note of that fighters for Justice on this forum
No doubt Marcos was much admired for taking on the PJ and a natural choice.
My question was ... why were metodo 3 involved with him ( paying him money ) whilst they were in the employ of the McCanns ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on January 30, 2014, 11:58:02 PM
Okay - you have stated that the chances of (Maddie - but it could equally apply to anyone else in an apartment or anywhere else for that matter) are non-existent. That means a 0% chance of Madeleine (or anyone else for that matter) dying.
Well, statistically speaking there is a 100% chance that each and every one of us will die (to my knowledge there is no evidence that a person has lived for ever without dying).
Therefore each person will die, we just don't know when.
Even if conditions in that apartment had been optimal - eg: a responsible baby-sitter, children all fully fit, not having taken medicaments of any sort and so on, you cannot state that there is a 0% chance of one of the children dying.
A child could be sick and choke on vomit. A child could have an underlying condition that cause his or her heart to fail. A child could get out of bed and bang their head. A child could take pills they found lying around.
This could all happen with a babysitter in the next room.
Yes, it is UNLIKELY but it is not IMPOSSIBLE.
I simply am pointing out that the chances of a person dying are 100% - it is just a question of when 8-)(--).
Davell, you really should give up quoting statistics. Or enrol on an advanced statistics course....or....something..... @)(++(*
j.rob
How you can attempt to undermine such a highly educated and knowledgeable man as davel when you have repeatedly shown a complete lack of understanding of the case, is beyond me. In some of your posts, you very obviously haven't even read the statements ... yet you continue to say things that are totally wrong as tho they written in stone.
If you cant be bothered to read the statements at least have the grace to put "I believe" or "possibly". Better to stop posting altogether tbh.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Cariad on January 31, 2014, 07:39:28 AM
How you can attempt to undermine such a highly educated and knowledgeable man as davel when you have repeatedly shown a complete lack of understanding of the case, is beyond me. In some of your posts, you very obviously haven't even read the statements ... yet you continue to say things that are totally wrong as tho they written in stone.
If you cant be bothered to read the statements at least have the grace to put "I believe" or "possibly". Better to stop posting altogether tbh.
Maybe J rob has damaged his eyes reading too much rubbish written on forums by people who think an abductor would dress the abducted child in their clan kilt and take her out for a wander around.
It hurts my eyes too.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 31, 2014, 08:02:14 AM
Could anyone tell me when this "accident" is supposed to have happened?
The McCanns arrived at the tapas to eat ...did several checks...then the whole world descended on the apt at 10pm
So...when did the accident happen and when was maddie removed...was the mystery tapas member Dynamo...the magician
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 31, 2014, 08:06:45 AM
Arrived at tapas 8.30....maddie gone at 10..00 ...how did it happen...
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on January 31, 2014, 08:36:21 AM
A very simple and effective plan. We could do the same thing Smithman accomplished in a reconstruction. Madeleine is moved out when everyone is at the table. So how do they know she has left? They don't, they can't see nothing - they only presume she's in the apartment. After the alarm is raised she is moved a second time unsuspected by the others who are preoccupied with trying to find her but Smithman is the only one who knows where she really is. SY/PJ will discover that this is what happened to Madeleine and how Smithman fooled everyone.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 31, 2014, 10:14:32 AM
A very simple and effective plan. We could do the same thing Smithman accomplished in a reconstruction. Madeleine is moved out when everyone is at the table. So how do they know she has left? They don't, they can't see nothing - they only presume she's in the apartment. After the alarm is raised she is moved a second time unsuspected by the others who are preoccupied with trying to find her but Smithman is the only one who knows where she really is. SY/PJ will discover that this is what happened to Madeleine and how Smithman fooled everyone.
so at what time did she have the accident..what time was she discovered...when was she moved and by whom...I think you are going to find this very difficult
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 31, 2014, 10:15:43 AM
so at what time did she have the accident..what time was she discovered...when was she moved and by whom...I think you are going to find this very difficult
That's connected to the daily routine change at 6.30-7pm. She was moved as soon as everyone arrived at the tapas bar at 9pm but due to time constraint she wasn't moved too far away. The second unsuspected move was simply to move her further away from the crime scene and to somewhere safe where she was less likely to be found and this is what happened.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 31, 2014, 10:35:42 AM
That's connected to the daily routine change at 6.30-7pm. She was moved as soon as everyone arrived at the tapas bar at 9pm but due to time constraint she wasn't moved too far away. The second unsuspected move was simply to move her further away from the crime scene.
so the accident happened before they left for the tapas bar...so no neglect so no need to cover up the accident...
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 31, 2014, 10:37:03 AM
so the accident happened before they left for the tapas bar...so no neglect so no need to cover up the accident...
If it was an accident there's incriminating factors involved or there would be no cover up. Madeleine hasn't been seen again so Smithman didn't want her to be found.
"After the 5pm dinner, they bathed the children, prepared them for the night and let them play for a while at a playground next to the tennis courts, still and always under parental supervision. At around 8pm, the children were put to bed until the following morning, when the described routine started all over again." (KM 4 May Statement)
This routine changed for the first time on 3 May.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 31, 2014, 01:14:41 PM
I suggest you familiarize yourself with statistics on accident in the home involving young children. Unfortunately they are not at all uncommon. And obviously if children are left unattended, the consequences can be dire.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 31, 2014, 01:17:26 PM
You mean the twins would have been easily disturbed?
Children don't necessarily make a lot of noise if they are choking on something. It happened a few times with mine and on the contrary, it was not noisy.
In any case, the twins may have been disturbed. Seeing as there was no adult in the apartment, how would we know? They may have been crying that night but it is my belief they had been medicated that night.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 31, 2014, 01:30:16 PM
A very simple and effective plan. We could do the same thing Smithman accomplished in a reconstruction. Madeleine is moved out when everyone is at the table. So how do they know she has left? They don't, they can't see nothing - they only presume she's in the apartment. After the alarm is raised she is moved a second time unsuspected by the others who are preoccupied with trying to find her but Smithman is the only one who knows where she really is. SY/PJ will discover that this is what happened to Madeleine and how Smithman fooled everyone.
I suppose it is possible that there was an attempt to move Madeleine at around 9.15pm, which is when some of the eye-witnesses report hearing a commotion. This might have been thwarted, or the plan changed for whatever reason - Jeremy walking around for instance.
Jane Tanner was conveniently in her apartment or out an about at several key times that evening - 9.15pm (is) when she claims she saw Gerry talking to Jeremy and again at 10pm when she said she was in her apartment and heard a commotion. Jane claims she saw Jeremy but as far as I am aware in his witness statement he says he did not see her when he was talking to Gerry.
If there had been an earlier attempt to move Madeleine at 9.15pm (ish) which had been thwarted or changed, for whatever reason (and Jane Tanner seems to have been all eyes around the resort that evening - here, there and everywhere!) then that would account for the timeline in Kate's book being different. The Matt 'check' was added and then Kate's final 'check' was given to coincide with a later 'abduction' time.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 31, 2014, 01:31:44 PM
Children don't necessarily make a lot of noise if they are choking on something. It happened a few times with mine and on the contrary, it was not noisy.
In any case, the twins may have been disturbed. Seeing as there was no adult in the apartment, how would we know? They may have been crying that night but it is my belief they had been medicated that night.
Im not talking about choking...Im talking about choking to death..no way a fatal accident and cover up between 8.30 and 10...both kate and gerry were seen constantly around this 90 mins..
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on January 31, 2014, 01:38:10 PM
That's connected to the daily routine change at 6.30-7pm. She was moved as soon as everyone arrived at the tapas bar at 9pm but due to time constraint she wasn't moved too far away. The second unsuspected move was simply to move her further away from the crime scene and to somewhere safe where she was less likely to be found and this is what happened.
Yes, I believe this too. All the hype and commotion that evening. All those 'checks', all that time-line stuff. I think around 9.15pm and around 10pm were key timings for that evening. Jeremy and Smithman are two vital witnesses. As are staff at the restaurant.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 31, 2014, 01:45:51 PM
Yes, I believe this too. All the hype and commotion that evening. All those 'checks', all that time-line stuff. I think around 9.15pm and around 10pm were key timings for that evening. Jeremy and Smithman are two vital witnesses. As are staff at the restaurant.
As are the MAJOR indisputable discrepancies and other changes between the first and second statements of GM and others in the group and their joint statement of 10 May
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 31, 2014, 02:05:49 PM
So you're prepared to bet your house which is worth "a lot" that there may be translation errors, no matter how minor, in the statements?
You'll lose your house. Of course there'll be minor translation errors.
Or, are you saying you'll only bet your house on major translation errors that have a major impact on the case? If so, to save your house can you point them out.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on January 31, 2014, 10:39:23 PM
So you're prepared to bet your house which is worth "a lot" that there may be translation errors, no matter how minor, in the statements?
You'll lose your house. Of course there'll be minor translation errors.
Or, are you saying you'll only bet your house on major translation errors that have a major impact on the case? If so, to save your house can you point them out.
depends what you mean by major and minor...I remember gerry saying there were errors which he had to correct..the mccanns had no way of knowing what was written down in portuguese
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Redblossom on January 31, 2014, 10:47:04 PM
And then go on to the others...all changed and or enhanced
and absolutely nothing to do with translatiin errors"
Then read the joint tapas group statement of 10 may for both errors and massive embellishments and departures from first statements as well as confirmations of certain things since denied! Oh and all given in english...and spot the differences! Eta lnk
That's connected to the daily routine change at 6.30-7pm. She was moved as soon as everyone arrived at the tapas bar at 9pm but due to time constraint she wasn't moved too far away. The second unsuspected move was simply to move her further away from the crime scene and to somewhere safe where she was less likely to be found and this is what happened.
What do you mean by 'time constraint', pathfinder? Surely if a body were being moved, the person alerting everyone to the disappearance would wait until the time was right for them.
Normally T9 were dining until much later in the evening than when they were alerted to Madeleine's disappearance that night. The person concealing her would have had plenty more time if they had chosen.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on February 01, 2014, 09:05:34 AM
What do you mean by 'time constraint', pathfinder? Surely if a body were being moved, the person alerting everyone to the disappearance would wait until the time was right for them.
Normally T9 were dining until much later in the evening than when they were alerted to Madeleine's disappearance that night. The person concealing her would have had plenty more time if they had chosen.
The most important defence in any crime is having a good alibi.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on February 01, 2014, 09:16:25 AM
What do you mean by 'time constraint', pathfinder? Surely if a body were being moved, the person alerting everyone to the disappearance would wait until the time was right for them.
Normally T9 were dining until much later in the evening than when they were alerted to Madeleine's disappearance that night. The person concealing her would have had plenty more time if they had chosen.
Perhaps the deed had to be done while there were still enough people around to allow some confusion to aid deception.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 10:40:03 AM
I still maintain that 90 mins is not long enough for Maddie to wake up ,...have a fatal accident...which is nigh impossible...be discovered...a plan hatched and the body taken away...totally and utterly ridiculous and is probably why SY are not bothering with such a stupid theory
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on February 01, 2014, 11:35:03 AM
How you can attempt to undermine such a highly educated and knowledgeable man as davel when you have repeatedly shown a complete lack of understanding of the case, is beyond me. In some of your posts, you very obviously haven't even read the statements ... yet you continue to say things that are totally wrong as tho they written in stone.
If you cant be bothered to read the statements at least have the grace to put "I believe" or "possibly".
I have read a great many statements. Perhaps it is you who have not. You seem to substitute personal attack for debate.
Some people on this forum do struggle with statistics. But you cannot deny that there is a 100% possibility of death at some stage or another.
There is a growing body of opinion that believe the McCanns know what happened to their daughter and have strung along a gullible public for a long time. My mind was open at the beginning. I believed their story. However, the more I read the PJ files, the less I believe the McCann's version of events.
Their media interviews are also dripping with clues that they are most certainly not the main victims in all this.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on February 01, 2014, 11:37:11 AM
When are the McCanns going to accept some responsibility for the disappearance of their daughter? How about some transparency about what REALLY went on during that holiday.
The total stranger abduction theory is about as plausible as the big bad wolf. The PJ were a damn sight more intelligent than Leicestershire police, the media and a lot of the public (at least initially).
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 11:47:59 AM
When are the McCanns going to accept some responsibility for the disappearance of their daughter? How about some transparency about what REALLY went on during that holiday.
The total stranger abduction theory is about as plausible as the big bad wolf. The PJ were a damn sight more intelligent than Leicestershire police, the media and a lot of the public (at least initially).
all in your opinion of course
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on February 01, 2014, 11:56:32 AM
As, presumably, are your posts which I notice never quote direct sources (eg: witness statements). If you are so sure of the facts, why not provide evidence? At least I have given some sources in some of my posts - eg: witness statements. No doubt you will say they are not reliable because of the 'stupid' PJ (is that defamation, by the way?)
So the only 'truth' is the statements given by the McCanns and their friends, eh? They weren't even there when their daughter was 'taken' (so they say) so how can their statements carry that much weight?
One of the 'only' pieces of evidence was Jane Tanner's sighting which has been ruled out. Their story is about as flimsy as house of cards.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 12:00:11 PM
As, presumably, are your posts which I notice never quote direct sources (eg: witness statements). If you are so sure of the facts, why not provide evidence? At least I have given some sources in some of my posts - eg: witness statements. No doubt you will say they are not reliable because of the 'stupid' PJ (is that defamation, by the way?)
So the only 'truth' is the statements given by the McCanns and their friends, eh? They weren't even there when their daughter was 'taken' (so they say) so how can their statements carry that much weight?
One of the 'only' pieces of evidence was Jane Tanner's sighting which has been ruled out. Their story is about as flimsy as house of cards.
you've just claimed that the fund has failed in its aims but despite my requests have not provided a guote from the aims of the fund to support this.....I will leave it there
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on February 01, 2014, 01:03:39 PM
you've just claimed that the fund has failed in its aims but despite my requests have not provided a guote from the aims of the fund to support this...you basically post a load of rubbish...imo...I will leave it there
The stated aims and principle activities are listed in the 2012 accounts submitted to CH for all to see. The trick though is finding a copy of The Articles of Association for the company which will reveal a bit more. I am sure davel you are world leading authority on the Companies Act among your other many talents.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 01:15:32 PM
The stated aims and principle activities are listed in the 2012 accounts submitted to CH for all to see. The trick though is finding a copy of The Articles of Association for the company which will reveal a bit more. I am sure davel you are world leading authority on the Companies Act among your other many talents.
Well j rob has stated that the fund has failed in its aims...so...unless hes making it all up he must have a copy...what do you think...I know what I think
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 01:20:50 PM
The stated aims and principle activities are listed in the 2012 accounts submitted to CH for all to see. The trick though is finding a copy of The Articles of Association for the company which will reveal a bit more. I am sure davel you are world leading authority on the Companies Act among your other many talents.
I do have reasonable knowledge of the companies act now you mention it...so you can add malfeasance to the possible charges you imagine the McCanns will eventually face
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on February 01, 2014, 01:33:26 PM
I do have reasonable knowledge of the companies act now you mention it...so you can add malfeasance to the possible charges you imagine the McCanns will eventually face
Explain?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 01:40:27 PM
The most important defence in any crime is having a good alibi.
Yes Smithman had to keep his alibi i.e. being present at the tapas bar. He couldn't lose that so he couldn't be at the beach and the tapas bar at the same time. So to keep his alibi the first move was enough to get her a safe distance from the apartment. The 2nd move to further away was done when he had more time to do it in the chaos and confusion of the first searches but he was moving quick with the child as witnesses noticed. So he didn't want to be missing for too long or caught in the act.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Estuarine on February 01, 2014, 02:23:25 PM
Yes Smithman had to keep his alibi i.e. being present at the tapas bar. He couldn't lose that so he couldn't be at the beach and the tapas bar at the same time. So to keep his alibi the first move was enough to get her a safe distance from the apartment. The 2nd move to further away was done when he had more time to do it in the chaos and confusion of the first searches but he was moving quick with the child as witnesses noticed. So he didn't want to be missing for too long or caught in the act.
So you think that Gerry decided to move her twice at a time when the pubs and shops were still open, although he could have no idea (because he couldn't see into the future) how many tourists/locals were coming and going from restaurants/bars - or how many could be sitting on their balconies or simply out for a stroll - because IHO that was a much safer bet to avoid being ''caught in the act'' than waiting until the middle of the night when everything was closed and most people would be fast asleep... presumably including the Smith family.
Strange logic indeed IMO.
And how did he know beforehand about the unfindable place he eventually took her to? And how did he know the police would not arrive until 11 o'clock? How could he be sure that someone outside the group had not taken it upon themselves to ring the police as soon as the alarm was raised and that the police could be there in minutes - long before he got back? And when did he change back into the clothing he wore at the Tapas Bar? - Was it in a phone box, because IMO he would have to be Superman with a crystal ball to know and do all that?
Sorry - but where is the common sense?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on February 01, 2014, 03:44:26 PM
So you think that Gerry decided to move her twice at a time when the pubs and shops were still open, although he could have no idea (because he couldn't see into the future) how many tourists/locals were coming and going from restaurants/bars - or how many could be sitting on their balconies or simply out for a stroll - because IHO that was a much safer bet to avoid being ''caught in the act'' than waiting until the middle of the night when everything was closed and most people would be fast asleep... presumably including the Smith family.
Strange logic indeed IMO.
And how did he know beforehand about the unfindable place he eventually took her to? And how did he know the police would not arrive until 11 o'clock? How could he be sure that someone outside the group had not taken it upon themselves to ring the police as soon as the alarm was raised and that the police could be there in minutes - long before he got back? And when did he change back into the clothing he wore at the Tapas Bar? - Was it in a phone box, because IMO he would have to be Superman with a crystal ball to know and do all that?
Sorry - but where is the common sense?
It's very straight forward and could easily be reconstructed. There's no proof of what they were wearing at the tapas bar. It only takes 20 seconds to change trousers. Desperate times call for desperate measures. He had no idea when the police would arrive so it was done within 10 minutes - very quickly before they appeared or others catching him in the act. He knew of somewhere safe because he knew where he was going. Being present at the tapas bar with the others was Smithman's alibi - he had no alibi doing it in the middle of the night with no evidence of an abductor. Parents would be first suspects.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 03:55:18 PM
It's very straight forward and could easily be reconstructed. There's no proof of what they were wearing at the tapas bar. It only takes 20 seconds to change trousers. Desperate times call for desperate measures. He had no idea when the police would arrive so it was done within 10 minutes - very quickly before they appeared or others catching him in the act. He knew of somewhere safe because he knew where he was going. Being present at the tapas bar with the others was Smithman's alibi - he had no alibi doing it in the middle of the night with no evidence of an abductor. Parents would be first suspects.
if this is true Im convinced the mystery tapas member was dynamo the magician
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on February 01, 2014, 03:57:19 PM
It only takes 5 minutes to move a body to a bin and come back. Any who did a check could do it in that time but when was the best time to do it? That's easy when everyone is accounted for at the tapas bar.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 03:58:55 PM
It only takes 5 minutes to move a body to a bin and come back. Any who did a check could do it in that time but when was the best time to do it? That's easy when everyone is accounted for at the tapas bar.
lunacy rules ok
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on February 01, 2014, 04:04:48 PM
As nobody has been caught for the crime and Smithman is still missing then it's a good possibility and explains cadaver alerts, moving doors and open window. Everything connects with it being an inside job.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on February 01, 2014, 04:12:07 PM
Yes Smithman had to keep his alibi i.e. being present at the tapas bar. He couldn't lose that so he couldn't be at the beach and the tapas bar at the same time. So to keep his alibi the first move was enough to get her a safe distance from the apartment. The 2nd move to further away was done when he had more time to do it in the chaos and confusion of the first searches but he was moving quick with the child as witnesses noticed. So he didn't want to be missing for too long or caught in the act.
If Smithman was Gerry carrying Madeleine, then I have always thought it was an incredibly risky move. But I suppose that a parent carrying a sleeping child in or near the resort at around 10pm would be quite a normal sight going back from the creche, for instance or going back to an apartment.
But it is hard to see what excuse he could have if, say, he had bumped into someone who knew him and who stopped and talked to him. How would he explain carrying a sleeping child AWAY from the resort at that time of night? What would have been the excuse?
Still, as others have noted, desperate measures, perhaps. Also, it would be incredibly risky to involve others in the initial carrying away of Madeleine as people will talk - eventually. And an accomplice to a crime who fesses up is going to get off a lot more lightly than the key players in the whole thing. Theoretically speaking, of course.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 04:32:30 PM
it certainly rules on here..I wonder what some posters are really like...their appear to be quite a few fruitcakes
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on February 01, 2014, 05:07:40 PM
That is what happened as they will find out once all other leads come to nothing. Smithman hasn't be found for a very good reason. Gerry said to Fenn a little girl had gone missing. Kate was shouting they've taken her. Can't they say it was their daughter Madeleine - using distancing language. Routine change, cadaver alerts - no coincidences in this case only that everyone have been easily duped.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Cariad on February 01, 2014, 05:13:18 PM
That is what happened as they will find out once all other leads come to nothing. Smithman hasn't be found for a very good reason. Gerry said to Fenn a little girl had gone missing. Kate was shouting they've taken her. Can't they say it was their daughter Madeleine - using distancing language. Routine change, cadaver alerts - no coincidences in this case only that everyone have been easily duped.
Naming her wouldn't have meant anything to an elderly lady questioning what the noise was about. A child was missing, whatever her name.
There is no way of knowing what she was actually asked during her interview (3 months after the event, which I find quite extraordinary) nor what her replies actually were as the interview was not recorded verbatim.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on February 01, 2014, 06:17:02 PM
No his own daughter was missing not a little girl. My daughter/Madeleine has gone missing!
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 07:04:06 PM
No his own daughter was missing not a little girl. My daughter/Madeleine has gone missing!
you want to look at every word...dissect it and find fault...theres no fault here for a normal person but you imagine you can find it...it says more about you than gerry
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on February 01, 2014, 07:09:31 PM
Perhaps the deed had to be done while there were still enough people around to allow some confusion to aid deception.
That does make sense, but at the same time, more people being alerted to the fact of the disappearance means more people searching - and a higher risk of discovery.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on February 01, 2014, 07:17:02 PM
That does make sense, but at the same time, more people being alerted to the fact of the disappearance means more people searching - and a higher risk of discovery.
That's true, but if you were a bit ahead of the game - ie others were still focused close to the resort & pool, for example, that would permit you to range further afield with your burden, confident that news of a missing child was behind you, rather than ahead.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on February 01, 2014, 07:50:48 PM
So you think that Gerry decided to move her twice at a time when the pubs and shops were still open, although he could have no idea (because he couldn't see into the future) how many tourists/locals were coming and going from restaurants/bars - or how many could be sitting on their balconies or simply out for a stroll - because IHO that was a much safer bet to avoid being ''caught in the act'' than waiting until the middle of the night when everything was closed and most people would be fast asleep... presumably including the Smith family.
Strange logic indeed IMO.
And how did he know beforehand about the unfindable place he eventually took her to? And how did he know the police would not arrive until 11 o'clock? How could he be sure that someone outside the group had not taken it upon themselves to ring the police as soon as the alarm was raised and that the police could be there in minutes - long before he got back? And when did he change back into the clothing he wore at the Tapas Bar? - Was it in a phone box, because IMO he would have to be Superman with a crystal ball to know and do all that?
Sorry - but where is the common sense?
All important points, Benice.
How could someone 'planning' something like this control all these factors? Control not just what T9 but many other people were doing. Anyone in the resort could have taken it upon themselves, for example, to call police at any time.
Just too many variables.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on February 01, 2014, 07:55:53 PM
How could someone 'planning' something like this control all these factors? Control not just what T9 but many other people were doing. Anyone in the resort could have taken it upon themselves, for example, to call police at any time.
Just too many variables.
There may have been no alternative - desperate times desperate measures.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on February 01, 2014, 08:04:31 PM
How could someone 'planning' something like this control all these factors? Control not just what T9 but many other people were doing. Anyone in the resort could have taken it upon themselves, for example, to call police at any time.
Just too many variables.
Smithman wasn't going near any shops or pubs. He was going to a place that was quiet in the dark. As soon as everyone is accounted for at the table i.e. nobody is leaving the table now as they are all ordering their food. Smithman makes his move.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 08:08:03 PM
There may have been no alternative - desperate times desperate measures.
Your ideas make absolute no sense...why should the Mccanns cover up an accident...
They would not have been struck off the medical register...they wouldn't have been prosecuted...
you now think that they would commit a serious crime...covering up a death...pervert the course of justice..start a fraudulent fund...all these would carry long prison sentences and finish their careers...your ideas become more and more ridiculous
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on February 01, 2014, 08:15:02 PM
Your ideas make absolute no sense...why should the Mccanns cover up an accident...
They would not have been struck off the medical register...they wouldn't have been prosecuted...
you now think that they would commit a serious crime...covering up a death...pervert the course of justice..start a fraudulent fund...all these would carry long prison sentences and finish their careers...your ideas become more and more ridiculous
Never heard of the CRB check ???
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 08:30:57 PM
Smithman wasn't going near any shops or pubs. He was going to a place that was quiet in the dark. As soon as everyone is accounted for at the table i.e. nobody is leaving the table now as they are all ordering their food. Smithman makes his move.
Smithman was actually perilously close to one of the social hubs - if not the social hub- of Praia da Luz. At the end of Rua da Escola was Rua 25 de Abril, where there were many bars and restaurants, including the bar from which the Smiths were coming.
He was making for the beach, yes - so the idea goes - but in order to get there he had to cross Rua 25 de Abril. A great risk. Indeed it was his perambulations in that area to which the Smiths were witness. Had they not been in this social area and seen him, we may never have known of his existence.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on February 01, 2014, 08:40:38 PM
They aren't called CRB checks anymore...so I know more than you..try google
@)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(*
So DBS. 8((()*/
Does that make you feel better ?
Meanwhile the point being, if Madeleine has died as many believe, and this was proved, and of course within the circumstances of how she was left, do you seriously believe this pair would be allowed to work with young children or vulnerable adults ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: ferryman on February 01, 2014, 08:43:46 PM
Your ideas make absolute no sense...why should the Mccanns cover up an accident...
They would not have been struck off the medical register...they wouldn't have been prosecuted...
you now think that they would commit a serious crime...covering up a death...pervert the course of justice..start a fraudulent fund...all these would carry long prison sentences and finish their careers...your ideas become more and more ridiculous
Minor quibble.
They would have been struck off the medical register (I'm unsure whether Kate's still on) and prosecuted.
Otherwise bang-on right ...
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on February 01, 2014, 08:50:34 PM
Your ideas make absolute no sense...why should the Mccanns cover up an accident...
They would not have been struck off the medical register...they wouldn't have been prosecuted...
you now think that they would commit a serious crime...covering up a death...pervert the course of justice..start a fraudulent fund...all these would carry long prison sentences and finish their careers...your ideas become more and more ridiculous
Sums up one of the main sets of reasons why the McCanns are unlikely to be guilty. A cover-up of this kind just doesn't make any sense.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on February 01, 2014, 08:51:35 PM
It is exactly a sense of self preservation that would prevent a person from carrying out the things the McCanns have carried out since Madeleine's disappearance, were they to have been carried out for the purpose of defrauding people.
It would have been too much of a risk not only to their reputations and careers - but to their entire liberty.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Lyall on February 01, 2014, 09:03:02 PM
It is exactly a sense of self preservation that would prevent a person from carrying out the things the McCanns have carried out since Madeleine's disappearance, were they to have been carried out for the purpose of defrauding people.
It would have been too much of a risk not only to their reputations and careers - but to their entire liberty.
Nobody can predict the future, and pretty soon things can be out of control.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on February 01, 2014, 09:10:56 PM
But the McCanns aren't only caught up in things - they have been driving their various cases and campaigns. Very thirsty work.
They certainly are resourceful 8)-)))
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on February 01, 2014, 09:39:15 PM
In another case it was the father who aroused the attention of the inspectors: in the middle of a negotiation, with a possible kidnapper, the doctor "was sucking casually one lollipop while reading banalities in sites of the Internet and talking about rugby and football with one of the English police officers".
JP: Ah he was on the phone and sucking on a lollipop wasn't it and laughing and chatting?
GA: Yes! Completely detached from what was going on and about to happen…
JP: So that shocked you in particular?
GA: Me and the colleagues who were present.
Have they found Smithman yet LOL.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on February 01, 2014, 09:44:21 PM
Meanwhile the point being, if Madeleine has died as many believe, and this was proved, and of course within the circumstances of how she was left, do you seriously believe this pair would be allowed to work with young children or vulnerable adults ?
absolutely yes...do you realise how short we are of consultant cardiologists...especially those who can speak English...the GMC position is that if they struck off every doctor who made a mistake there wouldn't be any doctors left
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: j.rob on February 07, 2014, 01:34:33 PM
The McCanns arrogance is/was breathtaking. It will be their downfall - along with everything else that will bring about their downfall. He was so sure that he would be protected by his buddies that he didn't even pay lip-service to what the Portugese police were doing.
Psychopathic behaviour.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: drummer on February 08, 2014, 07:58:20 PM
Once, I left my baby alone. I checked the windows of my hotel bedroom, closed the door and went downstairs to dinner. The reception on the monitor in the restaurant was terrible; anything could have been happening and I wouldn’t have heard it. The couple in the opposite corner seemed to be having trouble with their monitor too. But it was fine. I knew she was asleep, in her cot, unable to climb out, and there was a smoke alarm in the hotel. ◾Have you ever left your sleeping child in a locked room, whilst you had dinner in another place, escaped for an hour of adult company? ◾Have you ever entertained friends in your back garden whilst your child slept at the front of the house? ◾Do you leave your back door unlocked (not open) whilst you are in your house? ◾Has your child ever been out of sight in a field or park during a game of hide and seek? ◾Have you ever allowed your child to climb into the car on your driveway whilst you did a last minute check of the house, or supervised a quick toddler loo visit? ◾Have you ever accidentally gone to bed thinking your partner has locked the back door, only to realise in the morning that he didn’t?
Unless the answer to all of these questions is an emphatic NO, you cannot judge the parents of Madeleine McCann for their actions on the night of her disappearance. Last week I was a voyeur of a Facebook thread on the subject of the McCann tragedy; people were slating them for their actions, practically demanding that they be punished. Well you might as well punish thousands of other parents who, if they were honest, have left their child in situations that were not 100% lock-tight.
Praia da Luz: the perfect family holiday…
"The McCann's appartment" Photo courtesy of the Guardian
You may wonder why I feel so strongly about this. The year before Madeleine McCann was abducted, I had the pleasure of a family holiday in Praia da Luz. Our holiday house was directly opposite the pool entrance, about 100 metres from the McCann appartment. It was a great holiday; pool and bars on the doorstep, gorgeous beach, lovely people, delicious food.
My baby was a noisy sleeper, who often cried in her sleep, but didn’t wake, so we had opted for a 2 bedroom house. We left the bedroom doors open so we could hear her if she woke, but a small cry could go unnoticed. The man in the house next door was a heavy snorer, and kept me awake for hours at night. In the end I wore earplugs. It was hot, so we left the windows ajar in the baby’s room. We locked the shutters down, just as the McCanns did, but we left some fresh air circulating for her.It could have been us…..
When does safety become obsession?
It never occurred to me that my baby was at risk. But had our appartment been targetted that week, I have no doubt that our safety net was not strong enough. We were in the house. External fittings were locked. But would we have heard an intruder hell bent on secrecy?
In the months after Madeleine McCann’s disappearance, safety became an obsession for me. 30º heat or not, the windows remained locked at night (I still can’t shake this habit). If I allowed my kids to run down and switch on the TV of a weekend morning I would get a lie-in, but they can’t, because the alarm is always on overnight.
Statistics are no comfort
I met a child-protection police officer who maintains that statistically, it is likely that the McCanns were involved in their daughter’s disappearance. But what use are statistics unless they are 100%? If your child fell into that unlucky 0.3% bracket, would the statistics comfort you? Of course not! It angers me that so many people put such energy into shouting statistics and castigating her parents for their actions that night. “Oh, statistics say it was them, so that’s alright then, case closed.” Rubbish! My feeling is that people take this stance so they can brush the issue under the carpet as being something they, as responsible parents, do not have to worry about. Wise-up! That 0.3% matters!
You are never 100% safe
I know that had the McCanns been in their appartment that night, it would not necessarily have prevented Madeleine’s abduction. Two years ago, a woman living not far from us, got up as usual, put the kettle on, and opened her back door. Maybe she put some washing on the line and came back in for her cup of tea. Some minutes later a stranger walked in through her back door and stabbed her to death. Her 18 year old son rushed to help her, and ended up stabbing her assailant, who also died.
My proximity to these two tragedies has left me obsessed with the safety of my family. All of those questions at the beginning of this article? I can answer yes, to every single one of them. And I bet most of you can too. I will never again do any one of those things, and that is probably good. But it shouldn’t be necessary. When a crime is committed, do not turn on the victim with recriminations.
Madeleine McCann is 9 years old today, 12 May 2012. She is still missing. A criminal is still free. A family is still devastated. Do not judge them, help them.
Once, I left my baby alone. I checked the windows of my hotel bedroom, closed the door and went downstairs to dinner. The reception on the monitor in the restaurant was terrible; anything could have been happening and I wouldn’t have heard it. The couple in the opposite corner seemed to be having trouble with their monitor too. But it was fine. I knew she was asleep, in her cot, unable to climb out, and there was a smoke alarm in the hotel. ◾Have you ever left your sleeping child in a locked room, whilst you had dinner in another place, escaped for an hour of adult company? ◾Have you ever entertained friends in your back garden whilst your child slept at the front of the house? ◾Do you leave your back door unlocked (not open) whilst you are in your house? ◾Has your child ever been out of sight in a field or park during a game of hide and seek? ◾Have you ever allowed your child to climb into the car on your driveway whilst you did a last minute check of the house, or supervised a quick toddler loo visit? ◾Have you ever accidentally gone to bed thinking your partner has locked the back door, only to realise in the morning that he didn’t?
Unless the answer to all of these questions is an emphatic NO, you cannot judge the parents of Madeleine McCann for their actions on the night of her disappearance. Last week I was a voyeur of a Facebook thread on the subject of the McCann tragedy; people were slating them for their actions, practically demanding that they be punished. Well you might as well punish thousands of other parents who, if they were honest, have left their child in situations that were not 100% lock-tight.
Praia da Luz: the perfect family holiday…
"The McCann's appartment" Photo courtesy of the Guardian
You may wonder why I feel so strongly about this. The year before Madeleine McCann was abducted, I had the pleasure of a family holiday in Praia da Luz. Our holiday house was directly opposite the pool entrance, about 100 metres from the McCann appartment. It was a great holiday; pool and bars on the doorstep, gorgeous beach, lovely people, delicious food.
My baby was a noisy sleeper, who often cried in her sleep, but didn’t wake, so we had opted for a 2 bedroom house. We left the bedroom doors open so we could hear her if she woke, but a small cry could go unnoticed. The man in the house next door was a heavy snorer, and kept me awake for hours at night. In the end I wore earplugs. It was hot, so we left the windows ajar in the baby’s room. We locked the shutters down, just as the McCanns did, but we left some fresh air circulating for her.It could have been us…..
When does safety become obsession?
It never occurred to me that my baby was at risk. But had our appartment been targetted that week, I have no doubt that our safety net was not strong enough. We were in the house. External fittings were locked. But would we have heard an intruder hell bent on secrecy?
In the months after Madeleine McCann’s disappearance, safety became an obsession for me. 30º heat or not, the windows remained locked at night (I still can’t shake this habit). If I allowed my kids to run down and switch on the TV of a weekend morning I would get a lie-in, but they can’t, because the alarm is always on overnight.
Statistics are no comfort
I met a child-protection police officer who maintains that statistically, it is likely that the McCanns were involved in their daughter’s disappearance. But what use are statistics unless they are 100%? If your child fell into that unlucky 0.3% bracket, would the statistics comfort you? Of course not! It angers me that so many people put such energy into shouting statistics and castigating her parents for their actions that night. “Oh, statistics say it was them, so that’s alright then, case closed.” Rubbish! My feeling is that people take this stance so they can brush the issue under the carpet as being something they, as responsible parents, do not have to worry about. Wise-up! That 0.3% matters!
You are never 100% safe
I know that had the McCanns been in their appartment that night, it would not necessarily have prevented Madeleine’s abduction. Two years ago, a woman living not far from us, got up as usual, put the kettle on, and opened her back door. Maybe she put some washing on the line and came back in for her cup of tea. Some minutes later a stranger walked in through her back door and stabbed her to death. Her 18 year old son rushed to help her, and ended up stabbing her assailant, who also died.
My proximity to these two tragedies has left me obsessed with the safety of my family. All of those questions at the beginning of this article? I can answer yes, to every single one of them. And I bet most of you can too. I will never again do any one of those things, and that is probably good. But it shouldn’t be necessary. When a crime is committed, do not turn on the victim with recriminations.
Madeleine McCann is 9 years old today, 12 May 2012. She is still missing. A criminal is still free. A family is still devastated. Do not judge them, help them.
◾Have you ever accidentally gone to bed thinking your partner has locked the back door, only to realise in the morning that he didnt
pointless example as back door was deliberately left unlocked night after night
Though I agree in principle with the general tenor of her apologist argument
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: ShiningInLuz on June 20, 2016, 11:28:20 PM
Whilst the price of fish is off-topic, let me explain. The price of fish is determined by statistics and economics amongst others, because fishing a fish-consumption involves a large scale market where such sciences apply.
Applying statistics in a single case does not merit consideration. If it did, Leicester City would have got relegated.
Therefore asserting without proof that abduction is the most likely probability, and going from there to assert abduction happened, is a double no in statistics.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 21, 2016, 07:56:59 AM
Whilst the price of fish is off-topic, let me explain. The price of fish is determined by statistics and economics amongst others, because fishing a fish-consumption involves a large scale market where such sciences apply.
Applying statistics in a single case does not merit consideration. If it did, Leicester City would have got relegated.
Therefore asserting without proof that abduction is the most likely probability, and going from there to assert abduction happened, is a double no in statistics.
statisics show that if the parents are not suspects...then abduction is the most likely possibility and is there most likely to be what happened...remember in working out the odds all variables have to add up to one
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 21, 2016, 08:12:53 AM
Whilst the price of fish is off-topic, let me explain. The price of fish is determined by statistics and economics amongst others, because fishing a fish-consumption involves a large scale market where such sciences apply.
Applying statistics in a single case does not merit consideration. If it did, Leicester City would have got relegated.
Therefore asserting without proof that abduction is the most likely probability, and going from there to assert abduction happened, is a double no in statistics.
statistics do not tell you what will happen they tell you what is likely to happen.
statistics are often applied in single cases ....that's how we know Leicester were likely to be relegated...that's also how we know Leicester are unlikely to win the premiership this season...although the odds will not be 5000/1 this season
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 21, 2016, 08:14:57 AM
Not quite right. The probabilities of each possible cause must add up to one, not the causes (variables?) themselves. Unless you can identify every possible cause then the probabilities will never add up to one.
you are using semantics...the possible causes are parental involvement ...abduction...woke and wandered. Do you have any others...either tell us what they are or perhaps stop contradicting me
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 21, 2016, 08:16:44 AM
in this instance I certainly am in a postion to correct sil...in fact alice came to exactly the same conclusion as me as you have just done...all possible outcomes must add up to unity
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on June 21, 2016, 08:22:04 AM
you are using semantics...the possible causes are parental involvement ...abduction...woke and wandered. Do you have any others...either tell us what they are or perhaps stop contradicting me
I am pointing out the inaccuracies of your statements, I know you don't like that but it needs doing. While I disagree with SiLs 42% the need for the sum of any identified subset of probabilities to equal one is incorrect.
You can't just say three causes so 33.33333% probability of each, you need to identify a realistic probability of each cause which you have never done.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 21, 2016, 08:24:47 AM
I am pointing out the inaccuracies of your statements, I know you don't like that but it needs doing. While I disagree with SiLs 42% the need for the sum of any identified subset of probabilities to equal one is incorrect.
You can't just say three causes so 33.33333% probability of each, you need to identify a realistic probability of each cause which you have never done.
I have not mentioned 33%.....you have....so at least you agree that sil is wrong with her statistics...thank you
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on June 21, 2016, 08:26:42 AM
in this instance I certainly am in a postion to correct sil...in fact alice came to exactly the same conclusion as me as you have just done...all possible outcomes must add up to unity
SiL says all possible causes have not been identified. I think (SiL correct me if I am wrong) she is working on the principle that a cause is a fully identified sequence of events leading to Madeleine's disappearance.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on June 21, 2016, 08:28:30 AM
SiL says all possible causes have not been identified. I think (SiL correct me if I am wrong) she is working on the principle that a cause is a fully identified sequence of events leading to Madeleine's disappearance.
Then if that is the case she cannot calculate any probabilities....as I have previously explained...
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 21, 2016, 08:30:50 AM
Where have I asserted that on this thread? Please try to keep on topic.
You asked about the price of fish and statistics. I was polite enough to answer.
You asserted that probability determines the outcome of a hypothetical case. I know it doesn't. A big chunk of studying stats is about showing applying probabilities to a single outcome is nonsense.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 21, 2016, 02:55:15 PM
You asked about the price of fish and statistics. I was polite enough to answer.
You asserted that probability determines the outcome of a hypothetical case. I know it doesn't. A big chunk of studying stats is about showing applying probabilities to a single outcome is nonsense.
you certainly can apply stats to single outcomes and it is done all the time. As i expalined stats doesn't tell us what will happen it tells us what is likely to happen...cant you see the diference
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: ShiningInLuz on June 21, 2016, 02:58:57 PM
statistics do not tell you what will happen they tell you what is likely to happen.....I think you should stop feeling you are in a position to lecture the forum on statistics
statistics are often applied in single cases ....that's how we know Leicester were likely to be relegated...that's also how we know Leicester are unlikely to win the premiership this season...although the odds will not be 5000/1 this season
I am not lecturing anyone. I am pointing out errors in logic. And please stop telling me what you think I should or should not do. It is quite unnecessary.
Statistics are not applicable to single cases, as I said. Then you take the self-same case I used to illustrate why not, and show that the result of applying statistics to a single case is fatally flawed.
Any claim, therefore, that someone guesstimates abduction is the most likely scenario, therefore it must be THE scenario, is equally fatally flawed.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 21, 2016, 03:04:31 PM
I am not lecturing anyone. I am pointing out errors in logic. And please stop telling me what you think I should or should not do. It is quite unnecessary.
Statistics are not applicable to single cases, as I said. Then you take the self-same case I used to illustrate why not, and show that the result of applying statistics to a single case is fatally flawed.
Any claim, therefore, that someone guesstimates abduction is the most likely scenario, therefore it must be THE scenario, is equally fatally flawed.
First you need to re read my post re the probability of abduction....I say it is the most probable not that it MUST be THE scenario...i also say this is teh case if the parents are not suspects...you are totally misquoting me...please stop
statistics are applicable to single cases...the mistake you are continually making is that statistics tell us what is likely to happen...not what will happen. The bookmakers calculated the odds against Leicester winning the premiership was 5000 to one ....they didn't say it was impossible.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 21, 2016, 03:15:45 PM
First you need to re read my post re the probability of abduction....I say it is the most probable not that it MUST be THE scenario...i also say this is teh case if the parents are not suspects...you are totally misquoting me...please stop
statistics are applicable to single cases...the mistake you are continually making is that statistics tell us what is likely to happen...not what will happen. The bookmakers calculated the odds against Leicester winning the premiership was 5000 to one ....they didn't say it was impossible.
So davel, where are the statistical calculations you promised earlier ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 21, 2016, 03:20:28 PM
You asked about the price of fish and statistics. I was polite enough to answer.
You asserted that probability determines the outcome of a hypothetical case. I know it doesn't. A big chunk of studying stats is about showing applying probabilities to a single outcome is nonsense.
Could you give me a cite for that? Thanks.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 21, 2016, 04:59:53 PM
in this instance I certainly am in a postion to correct sil...in fact alice came to exactly the same conclusion as me as you have just done...all possible outcomes must add up to unity
I would hope what Alice said was: "The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes must be unity" because that is the case.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on June 21, 2016, 06:05:31 PM
I cannot see how statistics can be applied to a missing child case without all the facts being known and corroborated.
Maybe davel could enlighten us?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 21, 2016, 06:24:41 PM
I cannot see how statistics can be applied to a missing child case without all the facts being known and corroborated.
Maybe davel could enlighten us?
Statistics give data from which the process that generated those data is inferred. The only data we have here is a child disappeared on May 3rd 2007.......................?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 21, 2016, 07:11:41 PM
Oh pardon me, but I hated statistics, when I had to do them ... and still do
6&%5% ZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 07:49:22 AM
As i have said if the parents are not suspects abduction is odds on. If the parents are not suspects that leaves woke and wandered and abduction.
we then have...the open window....if the parents are not suspects then we can assume they are not lying...and then we have the archiving report ...
As a remote hypothesis, the possibility of the minor leaving the apartment by her own means was explored – that would be highly unlikely physically – and after, because of an accident or by a third person intervention, she would have disappeared.
the archiving report is of the opinion that maddie leaving the apartment herself is highly unlikely and they have all the available information
All the gates and doors were closed and again it is highly unlikely that a child leaving the apartment would close them.
Finally if Maddie had left the apartment she would likely have been seen or headed for the tapas bar herself.
This leaves abduction as the most likely scenario
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 22, 2016, 07:53:27 AM
As i have said if the parents are not suspects abduction is odds on. If the parents are not suspects that leaves woke and wandered and abduction.
we then have...the open window....if the parents are not suspects then we can assume they are not lying...and then we have the archiving report ...
As a remote hypothesis, the possibility of the minor leaving the apartment by her own means was explored – that would be highly unlikely physically – and after, because of an accident or by a third person intervention, she would have disappeared.
the archiving report is of the opinion that maddie leaving the apartment herself is highly unlikely and they have all the available information
All the gates and doors were closed and again it is highly unlikely that a child leaving the apartment would close them.
Finally if Maddie had left the apartment she would likely have been seen or headed for the tapas bar herself.
This leaves abduction as the most likely scenario
No, it doesn't.
You have no idea if the mccanns and others accounts of events are accurate.
It is clear SY had only one remit, abduction., and they have found NOTHING.
Now what were you saying yesterday as regards statistics ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 22, 2016, 08:00:48 AM
You have no idea if the mccanns and others accounts of events are accurate.
It is clear SY had only one remit, abduction., and they have found NOTHING.
Now what were you saying yesterday as regards statistics ?
Now where
I do have an idea if the McCanns are telling the truth.....based on everything they have said and done...based on the fact there is no evidence against them...based on what SY have said...based on the fact the portuguese are not investigating them...based on the archiving report
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 22, 2016, 08:09:58 AM
I do have an idea if the McCanns are telling the truth.....based on everything they have said and done...based on the fact there is no evidence against them...based on what SY have said...based on the fact the portuguese are not investigating them...based on the archiving report
As I have been reminded a few times, by mccann supporters, a lack of evidence does not mean it doesn't exist.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on June 22, 2016, 09:05:42 AM
I do have an idea if the McCanns are telling the truth.....based on everything they have said and done...based on the fact there is no evidence against them...based on what SY have said...based on the fact the portuguese are not investigating them...based on the archiving report
Still no statistics then?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 09:28:38 AM
More than two million children under the age of 15 experience accidents in and around the home every year, for which they are taken to accident and emergency units. Many more are treated by GPs and by parents and carers. On average 62 children under the age of five died as a result of an accident and over 76.000 under the age of 14 are admitted for treatment of which over 40% are under 5 years of age.
Those most at risk from a home accident are the 0-4 years age group. Falls account for the majority of non-fatal accidents while the highest numbers of deaths are due to fire. Most of these accidents are preventable through increased awareness, improvements in the home environment and greater product safety.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 22, 2016, 02:32:08 PM
More than two million children under the age of 15 experience accidents in and around the home every year, for which they are taken to accident and emergency units. Many more are treated by GPs and by parents and carers. On average 62 children under the age of five died as a result of an accident and over 76.000 under the age of 14 are admitted for treatment of which over 40% are under 5 years of age.
Those most at risk from a home accident are the 0-4 years age group. Falls account for the majority of non-fatal accidents while the highest numbers of deaths are due to fire. Most of these accidents are preventable through increased awareness, improvements in the home environment and greater product safety.
Thank you for that.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 02:33:40 PM
More than two million children under the age of 15 experience accidents in and around the home every year, for which they are taken to accident and emergency units. Many more are treated by GPs and by parents and carers. On average 62 children under the age of five died as a result of an accident and over 76.000 under the age of 14 are admitted for treatment of which over 40% are under 5 years of age.
Those most at risk from a home accident are the 0-4 years age group. Falls account for the majority of non-fatal accidents while the highest numbers of deaths are due to fire. Most of these accidents are preventable through increased awareness, improvements in the home environment and greater product safety.
we know children have accidents in the home but posters are getting carried away with accident statisics without looking at accidents resulting in death. We then need to look at accidents resulting in death in a very limited timeframe. Amarals explanation just does not fit the bill as we have discussed before
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 02:46:27 PM
we know children have accidents in the home but posters are getting carried away with accident statisics without looking at accidents resulting in death. We then need to look at accidents resulting in death in a very limited timeframe. Amarals explanation just does not fit the bill as we have discussed before
Your postulation works only if an artificial constraint is introduced.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 02:54:48 PM
Your postulation works only if an artificial constraint is introduced.
nothing artificial..constraints to fit the scenario,,.....you previously produced a child dying on a piece of gym equipment.....nothing artificial in ruling that out
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on June 22, 2016, 03:10:16 PM
nothing artificial..constraints to fit the scenario,,.....you previously produced a child dying on a piece of gym equipment.....nothing artificial in ruling that out
Fact is children do die at home because of accidents. They also die whilst on holiday.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 03:25:06 PM
nothing artificial..constraints to fit the scenario,,.....you previously produced a child dying on a piece of gym equipment.....nothing artificial in ruling that out
There is when the postulation was "children 0f 3-4 do not die in accidents in the home". To save all the pointless kin ping pong why do you not write down precisely what your postulation is in this instance instead of adding bits as you go along ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: G-Unit on June 22, 2016, 03:31:04 PM
If we start with the fact I gave - last seen at 5.30pm - can anyone tell me where you go from there? What could have happened in four and a half hours? May I suggest examining the possible variables, beginning with the obvious two.
The child died. The child lived.
What are the probabilities of those two possibilities?
The parents keep repeating there is no evidence that she was harmed.
There's no hard evidence of whether she lived or died. What about clues?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 04:02:53 PM
There is when the postulation was "children 0f 3-4 do not die in accidents in the home". To save all the pointless kin ping pong why do you not write down precisely what your postulation is in this instance instead of adding bits as you go along ?
I have never said children do not die in accidents in the home and have clearly stated exactly what I think several times...its tiresome when posters don't remember and I have to continually repeat it Domestic head injuries don't cause death in this time frame and in fact rarely cause death Fires and stairs are featured in the most common scenarios and blind cords None of these would feature inside the apartment
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 04:17:49 PM
I have never said children do not die in accidents in the home and have clearly stated exactly what I think several times...its tiresome when posters don't remember and I have to continually repeat it Domestic head injuries don't cause death in this time frame and in fact rarely cause death Fires and stairs are featured in the most common scenarios and blind cords None of these would feature inside the apartment
Fires: why not ? Blind cords: what about the internal CDA that operates the external shutter?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 04:23:39 PM
I don't understand why nobody has attempted to demonstrate, using statistics, the likelihood of Madeleine being abducted. The thread seems to be about anything but.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on June 22, 2016, 06:13:21 PM
I don't understand why nobody has attempted to demonstrate, using statistics, the likelihood of Madeleine being abducted. The thread seems to be about anything but.
Mainly because it is the least likely of the three main option groups.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on June 22, 2016, 06:17:05 PM
Abduction by stranger probability 0.0000017. I am sure someone can show it isn't with appropriate cites and calcs. etc if it isn't.
Rubbish Alice.
Don't need stats for that. Plenty of abductions to go on, including the abduction of a little girl from her bath in England .... as her family were in the house with her ... and according to some reports, in the next room
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 22, 2016, 07:20:33 PM
No it's up to the poster to explain and support your posts Probability that both you and slarti won't be able to 100%
LOL. Is alice claiming that abduction in this case has a probability of ).000000whatever or is that the likelihood of any random child anywhere being abducted by a stranger? Two different things completely of course.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 22, 2016, 07:24:28 PM
There are only 3 options to explain what happened to Madeleine - 1) parental involvement 2) woke and wandered 3) adducted. If abducted is 0.000000whatever, then what are percentages for the other two, pray tell?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 07:24:44 PM
alice is not expecting to be taken seriously
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 07:36:52 PM
There are only 3 options to explain what happened to Madeleine - 1) parental involvement 2) woke and wandered 3) adducted. If abducted is 0.000000whatever, then what are percentages for the other two, pray tell?
So?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 07:40:42 PM
I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish". It might be a long wait but I am up for it. The probability has been posted on this very thread about three years ago by a another poster complete with cite... ?{)(**
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 07:45:38 PM
I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish". It might be a long wait but I am for it. The probability has been posted on this very thread about three years ago by a another poster complete with cite... ?{)(**
so you are not joking.........could we have the cite so we can show what a stupid idea it is
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 07:48:43 PM
so you are not joking.........could we have the cite so we can show what a stupid idea it is
No. You can show that the probability is not 0.000017 by using maths rather than just saying "rubbish". You should find it a breeze if what I have said is untrue.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: G-Unit on June 22, 2016, 07:50:58 PM
There are only 3 options to explain what happened to Madeleine - 1) parental involvement 2) woke and wandered 3) adducted. If abducted is 0.000000whatever, then what are percentages for the other two, pray tell?
To tease it out further;
The people involved could be parents, other family members, friends, acquaintances or strangers, or a mixture of some of them.
Woke and wandered is the only simple variable.
Abduction could be stranger, other family member or acquaintance .
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 07:51:32 PM
Don't need stats for that. Plenty of abductions to go on, including the abduction of a little girl from her bath in England .... as her family were in the house with her ... and according to some reports, in the next room
Demonstrate why it is rubbish in your opinion.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 07:51:53 PM
No. You can show that the probability is not 0.000017 by using maths rather than just saying "rubbish". You should find it a breeze if what I have said is untrue.
then provide the solution or the cite...it is a stupid question
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 07:52:29 PM
There are only 3 options to explain what happened to Madeleine - 1) parental involvement 2) woke and wandered 3) adducted. If abducted is 0.000000whatever, then what are percentages for the other two, pray tell?
I wasn't using percentages.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 07:52:51 PM
LOL. Is alice claiming that abduction in this case has a probability of ).000000whatever or is that the likelihood of any random child anywhere being abducted by a stranger? Two different things completely of course.
Explain how and why.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 22, 2016, 07:54:05 PM
I never arrived at a figure I said it was odds on..
Quite, and I said you arrived at a figure > 0.5.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: lordpookles on June 22, 2016, 08:14:16 PM
Wouldn't odds on mean > 0.33 if we assume only 3 options? Depending on the number of options that figure changes... To keep it simple I guess > 0.5 if we assume only abducted and not abducted...
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 08:15:19 PM
The people involved could be parents, other family members, friends, acquaintances or strangers, or a mixture of some of them.
Woke and wandered is the only simple variable.
Abduction could be stranger, other family member or acquaintance .
If the people that are involved are the parents then that comes under parental involvement, abducted by anyone else is abduction. So with woke and wandered that is three options.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 22, 2016, 08:29:51 PM
Madeleine has disappeared. There are three possible reasons why. To say that the likelihood that she was abducted is 0.0000017 begs the question what is the likelihood of the other two explanations, according to the great mathemetician in our midst?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 22, 2016, 08:57:29 PM
I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish". It might be a long wait but I am up for it. The probability has been posted on this very thread about three years ago by a another poster complete with cite... ?{)(**
To give such ridiculously low odds (was it 0.00017 ?) as 0.0000017, when there already is one child that we know WAS abducted from her home (from her bath) + Ben Needham from his garden .... and several others abducted in very close proximity to their homes ... is patently rubbish
Sorry Alice but you cant wrap that up with statistics.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 22, 2016, 08:58:46 PM
To give such ridiculously low odds (was it 0.00017 ?) when there already is one child that we know WAS abducted from her home (from her bath) + Ben Needham from his garden .... and several others abducted in very close proximity to their homes ... is patently rubbish
Sorry Alice but you cant wrap that up with statistics.
Then perhaps Sadie, you can provide us with the percentage of missing children that have been abducted.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 09:04:58 PM
Then perhaps Sadie, you can provide us with the percentage of missing children that have been abducted.
#the percentage is of no relevance....it seems alice is quoting the odds of maddie being abducted prior to her disappearance...quite misleading
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 22, 2016, 09:05:21 PM
Let's say for argument's sake that the likelihood of a woman being abducted as she walks down the street is 100,000 to one. Now, does that mean that the likelihood that Claudia Lawrence was abducted is 100,000 to one too? 8(*(
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 22, 2016, 09:06:37 PM
Let's say for argument's sake that the likelihood of a woman being abducted as she walks down the street is 100,000 to one. Now, does that mean that the likelihood that Claudia Lawrence was abducted is 100,000 to one too? 8(*(
precisely...
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 22, 2016, 09:15:58 PM
Sorry, inappropriate use of smiley, I meant to use this one... &%+((£
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 22, 2016, 09:30:12 PM
Then perhaps Sadie, you can provide us with the percentage of missing children that have been abducted.
Of course I cant. None of us know just how many children have been abducted from their homes. We are just scratching the surface on this forum. There will be many more that we have never heard of.
But it is patently obvious with the few instances that I have mentioned that 0.0000017 is totally wrong. That figure is plainly rubbish.
Remember that Alice was quoting for the likelihood of Madeleine being missing from abduction, rather than from walking out or being murdered.
He is not quoting for any child that might be abducted from the worlds population of non-missing children. Even then I doubt he is right.
Where did your statistics go wrong, Alice?
I hate statistics, They can be made to falsely prove anything, just by slight alterations to the basic info fed in.
Oh, and they put me to sleep 6&%5%
To remind you of Alices statistical prediction, which was following on from discussion about the likelihood of Madeleine having died in accident or the other possibilities for her being missing.
He changed the basic data fed in or he guessed at a figure, cos it couldn't in his wildest dreams have come out at 0.0000017
To give such ridiculously low odds (was it 0.00017 ?) as 0.0000017, when there already is one child that we know WAS abducted from her home (from her bath) + Ben Needham from his garden .... and several others abducted in very close proximity to their homes ... is patently rubbish
Sorry Alice but you cant wrap that up with statistics.
I am not quoting statistics I am quoting probabilities.
Did any of you hear about the book maker who died lonely and poor because he did not understand the difference between probabilities and statistics ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 09:46:09 PM
In that case it is impossible to make an assertion that abduction was odds on
Not at all.
1. Despite Amaral and you guys trying to make some reasons other than abduction, there is nothing at all to point towards anything else. Amaral misunderstood or chose not to take any notice of the so called alerts ... and a number of you are still making out that the dogs alerts were meaningful. They weren't. Suggest you get up to date.
2. Two men were seen carrying a little girl in PdL. Both were walking fast and NEITHER was COMING FROM THE DIRECTION OF A CRECHE. Children being carried from the direction of a crèche was quite commonplace .... but neither of these men were doing that,. That is a red flag to me.
3. all charges (soz don't remember the correct word) against the Mccanns have been dropped by the PJ and judiciary
4> By their actions SY have shown that they have no interest in the Mccanns being involved in any way.
Weighing all these factors up, abduction IS ODDS ON
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 22, 2016, 10:06:08 PM
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 10:06:44 PM
Bump from post 1071
I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish". It might be a long wait but I am up for it.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 22, 2016, 10:15:03 PM
Let's say for argument's sake that the likelihood of a woman being abducted as she walks down the street is 100,000 to one. Now, does that mean that the likelihood that Claudia Lawrence was abducted is 100,000 to one too?
I'm waiting for an answer to this.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on June 22, 2016, 10:18:59 PM
I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish". It might be a long wait but I am up for it.
I could give them a hand.... 8(0(*
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on June 22, 2016, 10:20:39 PM
If you have correctly calculated the likelihood, yes.
Yes?! What??! You cannnot be serious... &%+((£. So what you are saying is that the likelihood that Claudia Lawrence was abducted is very small indeed, and that there is a much more likely explanation for her disappearance. Is that your view?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 10:34:56 PM
Yes?! What??! You cannnot be serious... &%+((£. So what you are saying is that the likelihood that Claudia Lawrence was abducted is very small indeed, and that there is a much more likely explanation for her disappearance. Is that your view?
Slarti didn't say that you did.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: lordpookles on June 22, 2016, 10:39:20 PM
I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish". It might be a long wait but I am up for it.
That number refers to the probability of a child being abducted? If so you would need to add additional variables imo to revise the figure upwards. For instance if the concentration of paedos in the area was higher then average you could multiply that figure by some amount. Obviously the more variables you have the more confident you can be with your numbers. I think given the history of the case and evidence the number can be revised upwards to some degree. To do a more thorough mathematical anylasis of the case I'd start with a logic tree... Life is short though ?{)(**
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: ShiningInLuz on June 22, 2016, 10:40:48 PM
Was she forthright and honest and raised a complaint with the PJ in 1994? Check the article.
Did Nicole Shutterworth volunteer her information in 2007? It was surely relevant, but I have never heard of her. Check the article.
Was this information dredged up as a result of Crimewatch 2014? Might be, but I am finding it hard to work out how it has leaked to the Sun now. Check the article.
Is there anything in the tale that connects it to Madeleine McCann? Are we talking Smellyman? Pimpleman? Charity collectors?
What is the link to the case?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 10:53:08 PM
That number refers to the probability of a child being abducted? If so you would need to add additional variables imo to revise the figure upwards. For instance if the concentration of paedos in the area was higher then average you could multiply that figure by some amount. Obviously the more variables you have the more confident you can be with your numbers. I think given the history of the case and evidence the number can be revised upwards to some degree. To do a more thorough mathematical anylasis of the case I'd start with a logic tree... Life is short though ?{)(**
Much too short when you can chuck a reasonably well derived jumped number at it for a sense check. The jumped number needing to be out by a factor of ten to the power of lots before a significant difference is encountered.
As a first pass I would do a simple RCA. But then almost immediately we run in to the old problem of either the abductor got in or the child got out.................... &%+((£
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 22, 2016, 11:00:54 PM
Was she forthright and honest and raised a complaint with the PJ in 1994? Check the article.
Did Nicole Shutterworth volunteer her information in 2007? It was surely relevant, but I have never heard of her. Check the article.
Was this information dredged up as a result of Crimewatch 2014? Might be, but I am finding it hard to work out how it has leaked to the Sun now. Check the article.
Is there anything in the tale that connects it to Madeleine McCann? Are we talking Smellyman? Pimpleman? Charity collectors?
What is the link to the case?
She was 3 at the time of the incident so I doubt she reported it to the PJ, but her parents may have, I don't know. According to the article which I did check, her parents informed investigators into Madeleine's disappearance in 2007, but it took 8 years before anyone came back to them. The link to the case is - 3 year old girl, on holiday on the Algarve, would-be abduction.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 22, 2016, 11:03:36 PM
The likelihood of anyone being murdered over the course of their life time is 1000 to 1. So, the likelihood of Claudia Lawrence having been murdered is 1000 to 1, that's according to Slarti / Alice logic.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 22, 2016, 11:10:30 PM
The likelihood of anyone being murdered over the course of their life time is 1000 to 1. So, the likelihood of Claudia Lawrence having been murdered is 1000 to 1, that's according to Slarti / Alice logic.
There is a fundamental flaw in your presentation there. See if you can work it out.
ps what has Claudia Lawrence to do with the case of Madeleine McCann ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 22, 2016, 11:17:50 PM
The odds of a child being abducted by a stranger are roughly 1 in 600,000, therefore the likelihood of Ben Needham having been abducted are 1 in 600,000. Is this correct?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: lordpookles on June 22, 2016, 11:18:10 PM
Much too short when you can chuck a reasonably well derived jumped number at it for a sense check. The jumped number needing to be out by a factor of ten to the power of lots before a significant difference is encountered.
As a first pass I would do a simple RCA. But then almost immediately we run in to the old problem of either the abductor got in or the child got out.................... &%+((£
Root, cause anylasis... Mentioned a logic tree as I have a use for them as I play high stakes poker and try to get near to game theory optimal play - I could see how one could be used here to try and determine certain probabilities. Regarding the jump number you mean a number which would have to be large enough to for instance make abduction 'odds on' favourite? I guess then you could look at that number and see what factors/variables of this case enable us to make the required number to make abduction odds on. That's my understanding Alice anyway of what you say...
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 22, 2016, 11:26:36 PM
If you were sick enough to want to place a bet at Ladbrokes on Madeleine having been abducted, what odds do you think you would get? 600,000 to one? 6000 to one? 60 to one? Evens?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: mercury on June 22, 2016, 11:42:06 PM
If you were sick enough to want to place a bet at Ladbrokes on Madeleine having been abducted, what odds do you think you would get? 600,000 to one? 6000 to one? 60 to one? Evens?
According to Gerry Mccann, the "odds are in the order of 100 million to 1" He is a man of science, hs calcs must be close
@2.10
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: lordpookles on June 22, 2016, 11:48:23 PM
dunno never make those kind of bets. I think you'd get something like 1.5/1, maybe at best 3/1, maybe a lot more.... Obviously the bookie would factor in the liklihood of us never finding out which is money in his pocket plus there are alternative theories like woke and wandered and fell down a drain or something, which is money in his pocket which contribute to the bookies expected value of taking the bet... The abduction number Alice quoted obviously highlights how rare abduction of a child actually is... I mean Alfie if you got odds of 600/1 would you lay the bet?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: ShiningInLuz on June 23, 2016, 12:00:51 AM
She was 3 at the time of the incident so I doubt she reported it to the PJ, but her parents may have, I don't know. According to the article which I did check, her parents informed investigators into Madeleine's disappearance in 2007, but it took 8 years before anyone came back to them. The link to the case is - 3 year old girl, on holiday on the Algarve, would-be abduction.
You are correct, Alfie, that I have named 3 year old Nicola, when I intended to name her mother, Lilian. Mea culpa.
I take it the bit in the Sun article you mean is this.
"In 2007, when the family heard of the devastating news of Madeline McCann, they got in touch with investigators to offer up information in case there was a link with their experience.
Incredibly, despite contacting them twice they only got a call back eight years later."
Investigators? 8 years later OG? A bit cryptic, isn't it?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: mercury on June 23, 2016, 12:07:45 AM
What is it with these people that wait for years before going to the press? Unless the press take their stories coming forward at the time or after an appeal and hold onto the information for future use? We have had at least half a dozen examples of this including "witnesses" Its quite baffling for the media uninitiated.
Eta going to investigators implies PIs NOT police
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 23, 2016, 07:40:09 AM
You are correct, Alfie, that I have named 3 year old Nicola, when I intended to name her mother, Lilian. Mea culpa.
I take it the bit in the Sun article you mean is this.
"In 2007, when the family heard of the devastating news of Madeline McCann, they got in touch with investigators to offer up information in case there was a link with their experience.
Incredibly, despite contacting them twice they only got a call back eight years later."
Investigators? 8 years later OG? A bit cryptic, isn't it?
looks like she informed the original PJ investigation in 2007 but only got a call back when Grange took over
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 23, 2016, 07:46:03 AM
I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish". It might be a long wait but I am up for it.
You are asking posters to refute something that you cannot produce. What it appears is that you are quoting relates to the possibility that Maddie would be abducted rather than was abducted....this is a mistake many have made
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 23, 2016, 07:50:21 AM
Only when more information and evidence is available.
not at all....the one piece of information that changes the odds dramatically is that Maddie is missing...if you cannot understand that simple fact it really is a waste of time
we know that the sum of all outcomes is unity so if abduction is such a tiny figure what are the values for the other outcomes....think about that and you will see why your position makes no sense
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on June 23, 2016, 08:16:00 AM
not at all....the one piece of information that changes the odds dramatically is that Maddie is missing...if you cannot understand that simple fact it really is a waste of time
we know that the sum of all outcomes is unity so if abduction is such a tiny figure what are the valuues for the other outcomes....think about that and you will see why your position makes no sense
That is a given, the population used for calculation has to be children who go missing.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 23, 2016, 08:18:34 AM
That is a given, the population used for calculation has to be children who go missing.
No ...absolutely not......the population is children who go missing and are not found.......thats where your mistake is
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 23, 2016, 08:19:59 AM
I'm astounded that seemingly intelligent people cannot grasp the point that Davel and I have been making.
One final example.
The likelihood of Joe Bloggs being eaten by a shark at some point in his life - 100,000 to one. The likelihood of Joe Bloggs having been eaten by a shark after gong for a swim in a tank full of sharks and disappearing - odds on favourite.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 23, 2016, 08:21:21 AM
I'm astounded that seemingly intelligent people cannot grasp the point that Davel and I have been making.
One final example.
The likelihood of Joe Bloggs being eaten by a shark at some point in his life - 100,000 to one. The likelihood of Joe Bloggs having been eaten by a shark after gong for a swim in a tank full of sharks and disappearing - odds on favourite.
I am astounded too and it does tell us a lot...if sceptics cannot or refuse to accept a simple concept that is absolutely true and cannot be contested....what does that say for the rest of their judgements.....I rest my case
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 23, 2016, 08:31:26 AM
I'm astounded that seemingly intelligent people cannot grasp the point that Davel and I have been making.
One final example.
The likelihood of Joe Bloggs being eaten by a shark at some point in his life - 100,000 to one. The likelihood of Joe Bloggs having been eaten by a shark after gong for a swim in a tank full of sharks and disappearing - odds on favourite.
Well Alf and Davel, can you both enact some application in the realm of statistics and give us the measure of the probability of Madeleine having being abducted.
Bearing in mind, there is zero forensic evidence of any third person in the apartment. Likewise the Police inquiries have failed to find any link to a paedophile(s), and of course not one sign of her since she disappeared.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 23, 2016, 08:57:56 AM
Well Alf and Davel, can you both enact some application in the realm of statistics and give us the measure of the probability of Madeleine having being abducted.
Bearing in mind, there is zero forensic evidence of any third person in the apartment. Likewise the Police inquiries have failed to find any link to a paedophile(s), and of course not one sign of her since she disappeared.
perhaps you could give your estimate of the three possibilities ...abduction certainly isnt 1 in a hundred million or whatever tiny figure you seem to think it is
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 23, 2016, 09:04:20 AM
perhaps you could give your estimate of the three possibilities ...abduction certainly isnt 1 in a hundred million or whatever tiny figure you seem to think it is
I have asked you or Alf to provide a figure, and you indicated you would the other day.
We're still waiting.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 23, 2016, 09:55:16 AM
I have asked you or Alf to provide a figure, and you indicated you would the other day.
We're still waiting.
if you cannot understand that the probability of abduction is not one in several million......a fact which is patently clear...then any further discussion on the topic is futile
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: carlymichelle on June 23, 2016, 10:20:32 AM
We have been quoting Gerry Mccann and his made up figures.
So, live up to what you said the other day, because if you don't, nothing you say can be taken seriously.
IMO.
i dont understand how davel and alfie cling to maddie being abducted like it is a good thing?? anything to make the mcanns innocent rght??
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 23, 2016, 10:21:18 AM
it is impossible to calculate a specific figure for abduction we can only make our assessments based on the evidence and what we believe. Based on the evidence I cannot see that the McCanns are criminally involved an this is further supported by the fact that SY have said they are not suspects...they don't seem to be being investigated and have never been arrested or charged...
my estimate would therefore be....woke and wandered 5 %....abduction 95%... Only two posters //myself and sil have posted their estimates...at least mine add up to 100 if anyone wants to criticise could they have the guts to post their estimate
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 23, 2016, 10:30:04 AM
it is impossible to calculate a specific figure for abduction we can only make our assessments based on the evidence and what we believe. Based on the evidence I cannot see that the McCanns are criminally involved an this is further supported by the fact that SY have said they are not suspects...they don't seem to be being investigated and have never been arresred or charged...
my estimate would therefore be....woke and wandered 5 %....abduction 95%... Only two posters //myself and sil have posted their estimates...at least mine add up to 100 if anyone wants to criticise could they have the guts to post their estimate
You haven't being paying attention.
Since there is no evidence of an abduction or anything else that could be used in court, then all the realistic scenarios add up to 100%, and none have been disproved or confirmed.
Therefore giving them equal weighting would be logical.
Your 95 % 'estimation' is totally meaningless.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Wonderfulspam on June 23, 2016, 10:31:05 AM
it is impossible to calculate a specific figure for abduction we can only make our assessments based on the evidence and what we believe. Based on the evidence I cannot see that the McCanns are criminally involved an this is further supported by the fact that SY have said they are not suspects...they don't seem to be being investigated and have never been arrested or charged...
my estimate would therefore be....woke and wandered 5 %....abduction 95%... Only two posters //myself and sil have posted their estimates...at least mine add up to 100 if anyone wants to criticise could they have the guts to post their estimate
W@W doesn't explain the open window, so, it must be, 100%, abduction.
Yet... OG is the investigation into the 'disappearence' of MM.
And according to Redwood, 'she is a little girl who's lost' (CW)
And according to Hulk....'it's a child who went missing'.
I'm astounded that seemingly intelligent people cannot grasp the point that Davel and I have been making.
One final example.
The likelihood of Joe Bloggs being eaten by a shark at some point in his life - 100,000 to one. The likelihood of Joe Bloggs having been eaten by a shark after gong for a swim in a tank full of sharks and disappearing - odds on favourite.
There remains a fundamental flaw in your presentation here. See if you can spot it.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 23, 2016, 10:35:03 AM
Since there is no evidence of an abduction or anything else that could be used in court, then all the realistic scenarios add up to 100%, and none have been disproved or confirmed.
Therefore giving them equal weighting would be logical.
Your 95 % 'estimation' is totally meaningless.
so you say 33 and a third for all three....at least that adds up to 100. so mccanns involvement 33.3%...yet they are not suspects....doesn't seem logical to me
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 23, 2016, 10:36:05 AM
if you cannot understand that the probability of abduction is not one in several million......a fact which is patently clear...then any further discussion on the topic is futile
Who said it was ? You are now joining the other sad old broke bookmaker who didn't understand the difference between odds and probability.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 23, 2016, 10:44:29 AM
looks like as only two posters have posted figures and mine are the only ones that add up to 100 then mine are the best posted so far
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 23, 2016, 10:50:28 AM
so you say 33 and a third for all three....at least that adds up to 100. so mccanns involvement 33.3%...yet they are not suspects....doesn't seem logical to me
Read again.
There is no evidence of any of the three possibilities that could result in a prosecution. So on that basis alone, they all 3 possibilities have an equal likelihood.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 23, 2016, 10:51:40 AM
There is no evidence of any of the three possibilities that could result in a prosecution. So on that basis alone, they all 3 possibilities have an equal likelihood.
of course they don't
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 23, 2016, 11:05:00 AM
I am astounded too and it does tell us a lot...if sceptics cannot or refuse to accept a simple concept that is absolutely true and cannot be contested....what does that say for the rest of their judgements.....I rest my case
Thus far you have failed to make a case.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 23, 2016, 11:05:54 AM
By the way it is 33.33 % reoccurring, with the 3 possible scenarios.
never...what a surprise...what would it be if the parents had a long history of child abuse....drug abuse..children had been taken into care several times...still 33....
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: jassi on June 23, 2016, 11:31:50 AM
True, but if they were not physically involved in transportation, it opens up a whole new range of options to consider.
That's irrelevant. There are only 3 options. Parental involvement, woke and wandered and abducted (by someone unknown to the parents). You could say that Madeleine ran away to join the circus, but that would come under woke and wandered. You could say that aliens took her - that would come under abduction. You could say her parents sold her to the gypsies - that comes under parental involvement.
One of these three options definitely happened. The parents have been thoroughly investigated, there was a lack of evidence against them in the initial investigation and they have been dismissed as suspects by the second investigation. That leaves us with two options. Woke and wandered is still a possibility though there is a complete lack of evidence that this occurred. There is however some evidence that Madeleine was taken by a third party, notably the open window (which, if we accept that the McCanns are not suspects means we have to consider that they are telling the truth about this aspect of the case). On balance therefore abduction seems to be the most likely reason for Madeleine's disappearance.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on June 23, 2016, 12:57:07 PM
Of course you have to look at the probabilities of the other options to refine the probability of abduction.
So what is the probability of a child of nearly 4 with documented sleeping issues prior to the holiday and waking incidents during the holiday leaving an unlocked apartment on the implied instruction of its mother?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 23, 2016, 12:59:34 PM
Carly you should go there and see before you make such sweeping statements
It really did feel like being in a back garden space wise. I am not talking about your typical town garden but a decent country garden. I have three friends with gardens as big and bigger.
They were only 50 metres away, the apartment patio area was bathed in light and with the trees and bushes just cut back was very visible to the Tapas friends. Many parents have been that far away from the children within their own gardens. Me included.
I was amazed how cozy the Tapas area felt when I went in. There was a smallish-medium pool (by todays standards), two tennis Courts, The tapas buildings and the play area and I thought that it would be enormous, but it didn't feel that way at all. Part Owner George Crossland, who was also the main architect, had done a marvellous job of packing everything in and making it feel homely.
The Tapas area was the "back garden" to the apartments. Just a few seconds away
The Mccanns thought that the front of 5A was secure. They had left the front door in a state that it needed a key to get in and had mistakenly thought that the shutters were security.
As far as they were concerned the front was secure and the back was overlooked by their party from only 50 metres away
They practiced the age old method of checking them by visiting AND ACTUALLY GOING IN to the apartment EVERY 30 minutes.
Way superior to Butlins, which was only checked by a stranger on a bicycle listening at the outside door every 30 minutes.
And way superior to some desk clerk/receptionist checking audibly every 30 minutes from their desk and in between guests arriving with problems or for check in.
Now would that have been every 30 minutes to the minute? Of course not.
Have you ever checked in at an hotel when a bus load of new arrivals is lined up? .... My bet is that the checking would go straight out of the window when the receptionist was stressed like that. .... Yet this was an accepted method of checking until after Madeleine vanished. .
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 23, 2016, 01:05:06 PM
Of course you have to look at the probabilities of the other options to refine the probability of abduction.
So what is the probability of a child of nearly 4 with documented sleeping issues prior to the holiday and waking incidents during the holiday leaving an unlocked apartment on the implied instruction of its mother?
What is the probability of a child of nearly 4 leaving an apartment in a holiday resort during opening hours on her own and disappearing without trace, with no third party involvement whatsoever?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 23, 2016, 01:06:48 PM
That's irrelevant. There are only 3 options. Parental involvement, woke and wandered and abducted (by someone unknown to the parents). You could say that Madeleine ran away to join the circus, but that would come under woke and wandered. You could say that aliens took her - that would come under abduction. You could say her parents sold her to the gypsies - that comes under parental involvement.
One of these three options definitely happened. The parents have been thoroughly investigated, there was a lack of evidence against them in the initial investigation and they have been dismissed as suspects by the second investigation. That leaves us with two options. Woke and wandered is still a possibility though there is a complete lack of evidence that this occurred. There is however some evidence that Madeleine was taken by a third party, notably the open window (which, if we accept that the McCanns are not suspects means we have to consider that they are telling the truth about this aspect of the case). On balance therefore abduction seems to be the most likely reason for Madeleine's disappearance.
No, we don'the know the parents have been fully investigated by SY.
There is no evidence of anything Alfie that is of any use.
So 3 possibilities, equal weighting.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 23, 2016, 01:07:45 PM
That's irrelevant. There are only 3 options. Parental involvement, woke and wandered and abducted (by someone unknown to the parents). You could say that Madeleine ran away to join the circus, but that would come under woke and wandered. You could say that aliens took her - that would come under abduction. You could say her parents sold her to the gypsies - that comes under parental involvement.
One of these three options definitely happened. The parents have been thoroughly investigated, there was a lack of evidence against them in the initial investigation and they have been dismissed as suspects by the second investigation. That leaves us with two options. Woke and wandered is still a possibility though there is a complete lack of evidence that this occurred. There is however some evidence that Madeleine was taken by a third party, notably the open window (which, if we accept that the McCanns are not suspects means we have to consider that they are telling the truth about this aspect of the case). On balance therefore abduction seems to be the most likely reason for Madeleine's disappearance.
And two men individually fast walking around PdL with a little girl in their arms. In both cases the little girl was bare footed and ill protected from the gusty coolish evening; not the acts of a father who was himself wearing a substantial jacket, substantial trousers and shoes.
Furthermore neither man was walking FROM the direction of any crèche ... now that is strange
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 23, 2016, 01:09:08 PM
That's irrelevant. There are only 3 options. Parental involvement, woke and wandered and abducted (by someone unknown to the parents). You could say that Madeleine ran away to join the circus, but that would come under woke and wandered. You could say that aliens took her - that would come under abduction. You could say her parents sold her to the gypsies - that comes under parental involvement.
One of these three options definitely happened. The parents have been thoroughly investigated, there was a lack of evidence against them in the initial investigation and they have been dismissed as suspects by the second investigation. That leaves us with two options. Woke and wandered is still a possibility though there is a complete lack of evidence that this occurred. There is however some evidence that Madeleine was taken by a third party, notably the open window (which, if we accept that the McCanns are not suspects means we have to consider that they are telling the truth about this aspect of the case). On balance therefore abduction seems to be the most likely reason for Madeleine's disappearance.
Are you saying that your methodology is to identify all possible outcomes then assign each outcome to one of n predetermined groups and then redefine this as only n possible outcomes?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on June 23, 2016, 01:10:35 PM
What is the probability of a child of nearly 4 leaving an apartment in a holiday resort during opening hours on her own and disappearing without trace, with no third party involvement whatsoever?
So you are including that in absuction?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 23, 2016, 01:23:20 PM
Carly you should go there and see before you make such sweeping statements
It really did feel like being in a back garden space wise. I am not talking about your typical town garden but a decent country garden. I have three friends with gardens as big and bigger.
They were only 50 metres away, the apartment patio area was bathed in light and with the trees and bushes just cut back was very visible to the Tapas friends. Many parents have been that far away from the children within their own gardens. Me included.
I was amazed how cozy the Tapas area felt when I went in. There was a smallish-medium pool (by todays standards), two tennis Courts, The tapas buildings and the play area and I thought that it would be enormous, but it didn't feel that way at all. Part Owner George Crossland, who was also the main architect, had done a marvellous job of packing everything in and making it feel homely.
The Tapas area was the "back garden" to the apartments. Just a few seconds away
The Mccanns thought that the front of 5A was secure. They had left the front door in a state that it needed a key to get in and had mistakenly thought that the shutters were security.
As far as they were concerned the front was secure and the back was overlooked by their party from only 50 metres away
They practiced the age old method of checking them by visiting AND ACTUALLY GOING IN to the apartment EVERY 30 minutes.
Way superior to Butlins, which was only checked by a stranger on a bicycle listening at the outside door every 30 minutes.
And way superior to some desk clerk/receptionist checking audibly every 30 minutes from their desk and in between guests arriving with problems or for check in.
Now would that have been every 30 minutes to the minute? Of course not.
Have you ever checked in at an hotel when a bus load of new arrivals is lined up? .... My bet is that the checking would go straight out of the window when the receptionist was stressed like that. .... Yet this was an accepted method of checking until after Madeleine vanished. .
There are two points which I haven't been able to confirm which you are stating as facts, One is that the McCann's patio was bathed in light. I have seen photos where it was light and others where it was dark.
The other point [which I have raised with you before without response] is the trees and bushes being cut back. Again, I can find nothing to support that statement.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Angelo222 on June 23, 2016, 03:49:26 PM
That's irrelevant. There are only 3 options. Parental involvement, woke and wandered and abducted (by someone unknown to the parents). You could say that Madeleine ran away to join the circus, but that would come under woke and wandered. You could say that aliens took her - that would come under abduction. You could say her parents sold her to the gypsies - that comes under parental involvement.
One of these three options definitely happened. The parents have been thoroughly investigated, there was a lack of evidence against them in the initial investigation and they have been dismissed as suspects by the second investigation. That leaves us with two options. Woke and wandered is still a possibility though there is a complete lack of evidence that this occurred. There is however some evidence that Madeleine was taken by a third party, notably the open window (which, if we accept that the McCanns are not suspects means we have to consider that they are telling the truth about this aspect of the case). On balance therefore abduction seems to be the most likely reason for Madeleine's disappearance.
The open shutter and window could very well be associated with the woke and wandered scenario Alfie, you really haven't thought this through properly mate. A burglar thinking everyone is out opens the shutter and slides open the window wakening Madeleine and scaring the shit out of her. Burglar makes off with his tail between his legs leaving said window and shutter open. A terrified Madeleine realising that she could be in danger looks for a way out of the apartment and realsiing the patio door is open manages to get out into the road. Several possibilities exist from this point including abduction.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Angelo222 on June 23, 2016, 03:58:30 PM
They practiced the age old method of checking them by visiting AND ACTUALLY GOING IN to the apartment EVERY 30 minutes.
Way superior to Butlins, which was only checked by a stranger on a bicycle listening at the outside door every 30 minutes.
And way superior to some desk clerk/receptionist checking audibly every 30 minutes from their desk and in between guests arriving with problems or for check in.
Now would that have been every 30 minutes to the minute? Of course not.
Have you ever checked in at an hotel when a bus load of new arrivals is lined up? .... My bet is that the checking would go straight out of the window when the receptionist was stressed like that. .... Yet this was an accepted method of checking until after Madeleine vanished. .
That is false and extremely disingenuous of you to claim that Sadie when you know it to be untrue. We know for a fact that nobody visited the children to check on them every 30 minutes on the Tuesday evening prior to the disappearance. Mrs Fenn recorded a child crying in the apartment below her for well over an hour. It stopped when she heard the parents enter the apartment. This child later turned out to be Madeleine who was asute enough to bring up the subject with her mother the next day. I believe the words were, why did you not come when me and Sean cried?
Please keep to the evidence Sadie.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 23, 2016, 03:59:07 PM
The open shutter and window could very well be associated with the woke and wandered scenario Alfie, you really haven't thought this through properly mate. A burglar thinking everyone is out opens the shutter and slides open the window wakening Madeleine and scaring the shit out of her. Burglar makes off with his tail between his legs leaving said window and shutter open. A terrified Madeleine realising that she could be in danger looks for a way out of the apartment and realsiing the patio door is open manages to get out into the road. Several possibilities exist from this point including abduction.
IMO the open window points to 3rd party involvement which ever way you look at it. The idea that Madeleine woke up, left the apartment never to be seen again without there having been 3rd party involvement is a non-starter as far as I'm concerned. But I take your point. Your scenario is a possible (though highly unlikely IMO) explanation for the open window.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Angelo222 on June 23, 2016, 04:02:48 PM
And two men individually fast walking around PdL with a little girl in their arms. In both cases the little girl was bare footed and ill protected from the gusty coolish evening; not the acts of a father who was himself wearing a substantial jacket, substantial trousers and shoes.
Furthermore neither man was walking FROM the direction of any crèche ... now that is strange
Seems it wasn't that strange since Scotland Yard and Redwood have reached the conclusion despite the breeze that one of them was in fact an innocent tourist.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Angelo222 on June 23, 2016, 04:05:14 PM
IMO the open window points to 3rd party involvement which ever way you look at it. The idea that Madeleine woke up, left the apartment never to be seen again without there having been 3rd party involvement is a non-starter as far as I'm concerned. But I take your point. Your scenario is a possible (though highly unlikely IMO) explanation for the open window.
Why is it highly unlikely? I find it extremely plausible given the evidence that nobody climbed into the apartment. Unless one of the parents open it of course?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: slartibartfast on June 23, 2016, 05:09:54 PM
Why is it highly unlikely? I find it extremely plausible given the evidence that nobody climbed into the apartment. Unless one of the parents open it of course?
Then you must think it extremely plausible that Madeleine opened the patio door, closed it behind her (leaving no fingerprints), opened the stair gate and closed it behind her, all the while in a state of terror, and also completely silently.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 23, 2016, 05:27:31 PM
Then you must think it extremely plausible that Madeleine opened the patio door, closed it behind her (leaving no fingerprints), opened the stair gate and closed it behind her, all the while in a state of terror, and also completely silently.
I sense a degree of backtracking here.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 23, 2016, 05:34:45 PM
Then you must think it extremely plausible that Madeleine opened the patio door, closed it behind her (leaving no fingerprints), opened the stair gate and closed it behind her, all the while in a state of terror, and also completely silently.
....& the gate at the bottom of the stairs.
This all sounds rather familiar, oh yeah, that's right, it was me that pointed all this out.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 23, 2016, 05:41:59 PM
If Slarti and Angelo are correct then that is an abduction, and the parents were not responsible for hiding the body. If it happened that way (which I very much doubt) then the McCanns had no hand in their child's disappearance and would be thoroughly vindicated. So, why do you think it's "not the right sort of abduction, wink smiley?"
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 23, 2016, 05:43:09 PM
There are two points which I haven't been able to confirm which you are stating as facts, One is that the McCann's patio was bathed in light. I have seen photos where it was light and others where it was dark.
The other point [which I have raised with you before without response] is the trees and bushes being cut back. Again, I can find nothing to support that statement.
I think you be missing a couple of points.
Overnight at the OC there was a single receptionist, therefore considering any form of receptionist checking on children does not apply to the OC. Ad the OC did not have bus loads of people turning up overnight, but who cares.
The back garden issue. At the moment, I happen to have a driveway where the furthest point is at least 50m from the house. But our alfresco dining capabilities are simply not that far away. When we move to Portelas, the garden is a lot longer than 50m. But the alfresco dining capabilities will be around 10m from the rear of the house. And should we choose to eat alfresco while the littlies sleep (one aged 6 and one aged one) there will be a baby monitor relaying their ever move to us.
Perhaps someone with the links can remind us which way the McCanns were facing? To monitor rear access you need to point that way.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: G-Unit on June 23, 2016, 07:57:39 PM
Overnight at the OC there was a single receptionist, therefore considering any form of receptionist checking on children does not apply to the OC. Ad the OC did not have bus loads of people turning up overnight, but who cares.
The back garden issue. At the moment, I happen to have a driveway where the furthest point is at least 50m from the house. But our alfresco dining capabilities are simply not that far away. When we move to Portelas, the garden is a lot longer than 50m. But the alfresco dining capabilities will be around 10m from the rear of the house. And should we choose to eat alfresco while the littlies sleep (one aged 6 and one aged one) there will be a baby monitor relaying their ever move to us.
Perhaps someone with the links can remind us which way the McCanns were facing? To monitor rear access you need to point that way.
I don't think Sadie was referring to the OC, but to hotels where the receptionist 'listens'.
Dianne was facing the tapas entrance. Moving clockwise were Matt, David and Gerry. all with their backs to block 5. Fiona was next to Gerry, then Kate. Jane, Rachael and Russell were next, probably facing block 5. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/FIONA-PAYNE-ROGATORY.htm
Rachael said she could see the top half of the patio doors only; not that she particularly looked. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RACHAEL-OLDFIELD-ROGATORY.htm
As a point of interest the Tapas pool wasn't particularly small at 37 meters long. An Olympic pool is 50 meters, but many pools are 25 meters.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 23, 2016, 08:59:33 PM
Children taken by strangers or slight acquaintances represent only one-hundredth of 1 percent of all missing children.
Most of us know how rare stranger abductions are Doesn't affect the odds on Maddie being abducted
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: ferryman on June 23, 2016, 09:36:41 PM
Statistics are irrelevant, here.
You only need to know that a thing has happened to know that it could happen (however rarely).
Ally that to the fact that there is not an iota of evidence (of anything culpable) against the McCanns or any of their friends, and you have the definitive answer: Madeleine was abducted from her bed by a stranger (so far as we, the public, are concerned) as yet unidentified.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alfie on June 23, 2016, 09:40:32 PM
Most of us know how rare stranger abductions are Doesn't affect the odds on Maddie being abducted
According to information from that link one child was abducted roughly every 3 days by a stranger in the US in 2002, and roughly every nine days one abducted child was killed by their abductor.
So although rare, try telling that to the kids and families affected.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 23, 2016, 09:41:34 PM
There are two points which I haven't been able to confirm which you are stating as facts, One is that the McCann's patio was bathed in light. I have seen photos where it was light and others where it was dark.
The other point [which I have raised with you before without response] is the trees and bushes being cut back. Again, I can find nothing to support that statement.
Unless the street lamp was broken, the patio area was bathed in a soft light. The street lamp was and is directly across the road from the patio area of 5A. There have been no reports that the street lamp was broken that I had seen. Have you?
It is reported somewhere that the gardeners came in and pruned the plants and shrubs. I have absolutely no idea where that is reported any more. I saw it about 6 years ago, or so. IIRC, the gardeners names were mentioned ... but I cant remember them either. Soz.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 23, 2016, 09:45:09 PM
You only need to know that a thing has happened to know that it could happen (however rarely).
Ally that to the fact that there is not an iota of evidence (of anything culpable) against the McCanns or any of their friends, and you have the definitive answer: Madeleine was abducted from her bed by a stranger (so far as we, the public, are concerned) as yet unidentified.
A timely reminder.
A lack of evidence is what marks this case.
There is nothing to show that any one of the three scenarios has any more than the other two in explaining what happens.
However, if there was no abduction, then all roads point in one direction.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 23, 2016, 09:50:14 PM
That is false and extremely disingenuous of you to claim that Sadie when you know it to be untrue. We know for a fact that nobody visited the children to check on them every 30 minutes on the Tuesday evening prior to the disappearance. Mrs Fenn recorded a child crying in the apartment below her for well over an hour. It stopped when she heard the parents enter the apartment. This child later turned out to be Madeleine who was asute enough to bring up the subject with her mother the next day. I believe the words were, why did you not come when me and Sean cried?
Please keep to the evidence Sadie.
Angelo, we are talking in this thread about the particular night that Madeleine was abducted / went missing. The thread title is * Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted *.
Was she abducted on the Tuesday ? No. She was abducted on the Thursday when a 30 minute check was in place
... and apart from that, we do not know which child was crying as you must well know. That is because Mrs Fenn heard a child crying on the Tuesday night , but Madeleine was upset on the Wednesday night.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 23, 2016, 09:57:59 PM
How do you explain you believe Maddie died in an accident but only see that scenario as 33 and a third probable Same as abduction So you believe abduction is just as probable as an accident
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 23, 2016, 10:52:07 PM
How do you explain you believe Maddie died in an accident but only see that scenario as 33 and a third probable Same as abduction So you believe abduction is just as probable as an accident
I give each possibility 33 1/3 %.
There is no evidence to show any one of them is right or wrong.
I also know a belief in one theory is not an absolute.
How about you ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 23, 2016, 10:59:46 PM
I don't think Sadie was referring to the OC, but to hotels where the receptionist 'listens'.
Dianne was facing the tapas entrance. Moving clockwise were Matt, David and Gerry. all with their backs to block 5. Fiona was next to Gerry, then Kate. Jane, Rachael and Russell were next, probably facing block 5. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/FIONA-PAYNE-ROGATORY.htm
Rachael said she could see the top half of the patio doors only; not that she particularly looked. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RACHAEL-OLDFIELD-ROGATORY.htm
As a point of interest the Tapas pool wasn't particularly small at 37 meters long. An Olympic pool is 50 meters, but many pools are 25 meters.
By modern standards at most places, that pool is rather small, but maybe you stay at different places where small pools are de rigur. I make it 35 metres, but that is from the farthest point to the farthest point . As it is a funny shape the average length is about 29 -30 metres. In suppose that is a decent size for the number of people using it, but it would be unusual for a modern pool (where I holiday Anyway) to be that small.
You are quite right, I wasn't referring particularly to Ocean Club, when I talked about queues at the reception and interruptions. At one hotel we stayed at, a brand new gorgeous hotel (then), one evening we saw a queue of hundreds of people waiting to check in. It was a fairly big hotel and there were 4 receptionists struggling to cope. A flight had been cancelled and everyone bused to this almost empty new hotel
Without doubt, any time honoured method of receptionists listening to baby alarms in rooms would have gone straight out of the window for several hours that night.
Rachel was talking generally about her flat and the Mccanns. The bushes and straw sunshades were not evenly distributed and of variable height. I wasn't looking at her flat so cannot comment on how clearly it could be seen.
Certainly a bit of the bottom of the patio windows was hidden by the low wall under the railings and the fact that the diners were at a lower level had a minor affect as well, but I could see virtually the whole of the patio windows with the exception of these very low bits.
The group sat a couple of metres or so, further west in the tapas restaurant to where we sat.
We were lucky, the bushes had been recently trimmed back. Our view would have been very different had it been a couple of months later. Greenery grows amazingly rapidly on the Western Algarve.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Angelo222 on June 23, 2016, 11:47:52 PM
Angelo, we are talking in this thread about the particular night that Madeleine was abducted / went missing. The thread title is * Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted *.
Was she abducted on the Tuesday ? No. She was abducted on the Thursday when a 30 minute check was in place
... and apart from that, we do not know which child was crying as you must well know. That is because Mrs Fenn heard a child crying on the Tuesday night , but Madeleine was upset on the Wednesday night.
We know very well who the child was but you cannot admit it to yourself. According to the tapas group the regime was supposed to be one of checking at 30 minute intervals every night but that is false. They invented the 30 minute checking story to cover their own backsides, they were caught out lying after Mrs Fenn came forward and told of the crying incident on the Tuesday night.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 24, 2016, 12:03:46 AM
We know very well who the child was but you cannot admit it to yourself. According to the tapas group the regime was supposed to be one of checking at 30 minute intervals every night but that is false. They were caught out lying after Mrs Fenn came forward and told of the crying incident.
I was within the bounds of the title of this thread, Angelo.
* Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted *
The night that she vanished was the Thursday and the Mccanns practiced the 30 minute and pop into the apartment routine all that evening.
We do not know whose little one was crying, when Mrs Fenn commented about THE TUESDAY NIGHT ... and we do not know if The Mccanns practiced the 30 minute, pop in routine on the other nights.
Please do not mislead us again about the nights of the Mrs Fenn Crying incident. It was TUESDAY NOT WEDNESDAY
Thanks 8((()*/
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Angelo222 on June 24, 2016, 12:05:57 AM
I was within the bounds of the title of this thread, Angelo.
* Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted *
The night that she vanished was the Thursday and the Mccanns practiced the 30 minute and pop into the apartment routine all that evening.
We do not know whose little one was crying, when Mrs Fenn commented about THE TUESDAY NIGHT ... and we do not know if The Mccanns practiced the 30 minute, pop in routine on the other nights.
Please do not mislead us again about the nights of the Mrs Fenn Crying incident. It was TUESDAY NOT WEDNESDAY
Thanks 8((()*/
You best read the tapas group statements again then. And by the way I stated the crying was on the Tuesday night.
Kate McCann knew about the crying by the Wednesday yet on the Thursday night she never went back to the apartment at all after leaving it at around 8.30pm. It wasn't until she decided to check on the children at 10pm that she found Madeleine gone. The only other person who claims to have seen Madeleine was Gerry who apparently saw her at 9.10pm. Assuming that is correct then there was only one proper check between 8.30pm and 10pm and not checks every 30 minutes as you claim.
As far as statistics are concerned and the probability that Madeleine was abducted I don't think anyone has a cat in hells chance of working that one out.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 24, 2016, 12:29:14 AM
You best read the tapas group statements again then. And by the way I stated the crying was on the Tuesday night.
Kate McCann knew about the crying by the Wednesday yet on the Thursday night she never went back to the apartment at all after leaving it at around 8.30pm. It wasn't until she decided to check on the children at 10pm that she found Madeleine gone. The only other person who claims to have seen Madeleine was Gerry who apparently saw her at 9.10pm. Assuming that is correct then there was only one proper check between 8.30pm and 10pm and not checks every 30 minutes as you claim.
I am not going to recheck it, my eyesight is not up to it, but I am pretty confident that it was on the Thursday morning that Madeleine commented about her crying the night before. In other words she cried on the Wednesday evening. It cant have been loud because Mrs Fenn didn't hear anything on the Wednesday night.
As for the checks, please do not deceive
1) 8.30-8.35 Kate and Gerry Mccann left the apartments
2) 9.00 (ish) Matt made an unscheduled listening- at- the- window check. Seems Gerry was not content with this cos
3) 9.10 (ish) Gerry went to the apartment and visually checked Madeleine and the twins.
4) 9.30 (ish) Kate stood up to take her turn but Matt who was doing his check offered to do hers for her. He went into the apartment this time and saw the twins, but Madeleines bed was out of sight around the corner and he didn't visually sheck her
5) 10.00 Kate went to do her check. She listened at the door (which was unusually open) and the wind caught the door, slamming it. Alarmed she found the window and shutter partly open and Madeleine gone.
The checks were better than every half hour because Matt had added an unscheduled one. And every half hour someone checked actually in the apartment.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on June 24, 2016, 12:31:35 AM
According to Matt, Gerry left as soon as he returned so it's not 10 minutes later. No wonder Matt thought it to be odd because it was.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 24, 2016, 12:48:28 AM
According to Matt, Gerry left as soon as he returned so it's not 10 minutes later. No wonder Matt thought it to be odd because it was.
Hang on a bit.
I am not quibbling about a few minutes, cos it is unlikely the times are perfect. This is not a military exercise after all. You will notice that I have said (ish) after Matts listening time and after Gerrys viewing time.
Nothing odd at all ... except that you should think so imo.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on June 24, 2016, 12:59:16 AM
I am not quibbling about a few minutes, cos it is unlikely the times are perfect. This is not a military exercise after all. You will notice that I have said (ish) after Matts listening time and after Gerrys viewing time.
Nothing odd at all ... except that you should think so imo.
Matt thought it was odd and he was there. He had just checked and everyone was now at the table but one left quickly.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 24, 2016, 01:07:39 AM
Matt thought it was odd and he was there. He had just checked and everyone was now at the table but one left quickly.
Make something of it if it pleases you, but most people would think that Gerry just wanted to make sure that the kids were alright ... and he wasn't happy with just a listen at the window check.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: mercury on June 24, 2016, 01:12:12 AM
Make something of it if it pleases you, but most people would think that Gerry just wanted to make sure that the kids were alright ... and he wasn't happy with just a listen at the window check.
Why not? Thats effectively what he did every night for almost a week, just listen from the living room and never do a visual check, dont need to reply, just saying
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 24, 2016, 01:15:19 AM
Why not? Thats effectively what he did every night for almost a week, just listen from the living room and never do a visual check, dont need to reply, just saying
Same as most people do, if you are honest
And anyway, we don't know what he did on the other days because it isn't itemised
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: mercury on June 24, 2016, 01:18:31 AM
And anyway, we don't know what he did on the other days because it isn't itemised
He said it himself in his documentary, ive told you so many times, and posted the video as well, why are you not taking it in, after all, his words, not mine ...he said thursday night was the FIRST night all week he did a visual check
So, shall we stick to statements from horses mouths or not? If we dont like them? Sheesh
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 24, 2016, 09:00:23 AM
He said it himself in his documentary, ive told you so many times, and posted the video as well, why are you not taking it in, after all, his words, not mine ...he said thursday night was the FIRST night all week he did a visual check
So, shall we stick to statements from horses mouths or not? If we dont like them? Sheesh
Precisely Mercury.
Sadie needs to pay more attention to the facts.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: pathfinder73 on June 24, 2016, 09:19:52 AM
I am not quibbling about a few minutes, cos it is unlikely the times are perfect. This is not a military exercise after all. You will notice that I have said (ish) after Matts listening time and after Gerrys viewing time.
Nothing odd at all ... except that you should think so imo.
Every second is vital is in an unsolved missing child case if your aim is to find the truth. Lost minutes here and there are unknown opportunities to make that child disappear. So from Matt's witness account, we are looking at a much earlier time when Gerry left the table to check not 9:10/15. I would ask him to explain why it is so late on the first timelines (missing Madeleine's sticker book) in an interview. Months later in September he gave an exact time of 9:04. So why wasn't this exact time written down in the first timelines? That means the police were working from false information from the start if they were going by those timelines.
detective - done in order to find out hidden or unknown information
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: sadie on June 24, 2016, 11:52:35 AM
He said it himself in his documentary, ive told you so many times, and posted the video as well, why are you not taking it in, after all, his words, not mine ...he said thursday night was the FIRST night all week he did a visual check
So, shall we stick to statements from horses mouths or not? If we dont like them? Sheesh
OK if you say so. My mistake. My apologies.
Post amended.
sadie
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on June 24, 2016, 11:49:19 PM
According to Gerry Mccann, the "odds are in the order of 100 million to 1" He is a man of science, hs calcs must be close
@2.10
A subtle difference here mercury. Gerry was suggesting that the chances of this happening were 100,000,000 to 1. The probability that she was abducted as against other reasons for her disappearance is something else.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on June 25, 2016, 12:03:06 AM
it is impossible to calculate a specific figure for abduction we can only make our assessments based on the evidence and what we believe. Based on the evidence I cannot see that the McCanns are criminally involved an this is further supported by the fact that SY have said they are not suspects...they don't seem to be being investigated and have never been arrested or charged...
my estimate would therefore be....woke and wandered 5 %....abduction 95%... Only two posters //myself and sil have posted their estimates...at least mine add up to 100 if anyone wants to criticise could they have the guts to post their estimate
I go with the three options suggested by Alf as a starting point but 95% for abduction is simply absurd davel.
I would hazard a guess at 40% for woke/wandered/met with accident, 50% for stranger abducted and 10% the rest.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: mercury on June 25, 2016, 12:13:44 AM
A subtle difference here mercury. Gerry was suggesting that the chances of this happening were 100,000,000 to 1. The probability that she was abducted as against other reasons for her disappearance is something else.
Ok thanks That leaves me not understanding the thread title/question
How can statistics determine chances?
All greek to me as they say.
All I know from what I have read over the years is that more parents/familial friends/contacts as well as fatal home accidents are responsible for child demises than strangers stealing and or killing children
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: John on June 25, 2016, 12:33:11 AM
Ok thanks That leaves me not understanding the thread title/question
How can statistics determine chances?
All greek to me as they say.
All I know from what I have read over the years is that more parents/familial friends/contacts as well as fatal home accidents are responsible for child demises than strangers stealing and or killing children
I see what you mean but you have to read the opening post as well as posts #1 and #2.
The full title should read, what are the chances that Maddie was abducted as against other possibilities?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: mercury on June 25, 2016, 12:36:54 AM
I go with the three options suggested by Alf as a starting point but 95% for abduction is simply absurd davel.
I would hazard a guess at 40% for woke/wandered/met with accident, 50% for stranger abducted and 10% the rest.
I would say your woke and wandered is quite high as is your parental involvement. I think some will be shocked that you have put abduction at 50% but at least you accept that is the most likely cause which will upset some posters. I started the thread because it appears some posters think abduction is a very unlikely scenario....which it obviously is not
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 25, 2016, 08:37:44 AM
Yet there is no evidence of abduction or any of the other scenarios which show what happened to Madeleine.
So any figure postulated is merely an opinion.
and since her fate is unknown,as is the cause, all of the theories have equal weighting.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 25, 2016, 08:56:37 AM
I have given all 3 scenarios equal weighting, since there is no evidence which supports any one above another.
so by your logic if the mccanns had a long history of drug and child abuse the odds would still be the same.......or does the social history of the parents affect the odds
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 25, 2016, 09:23:18 AM
so by your logic if the mccanns had a long history of drug and child abuse the odds would still be the same.......or does the social history of the parents affect the odds
How do we know what the mccanns are really like behind the scenes ?
Do you know them personally ?
The bottom line remains, neither we or the police know how Madeleine was removed from the apartment.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 25, 2016, 09:26:09 AM
As to not answering questions, I leave that to you.
so by your logic if the mccanns had a long history of drug and child abuse the odds would still be the same.......or does the social history of the parents affect the odds
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: stephen25000 on June 25, 2016, 09:55:36 AM
so by your logic if the mccanns had a long history of drug and child abuse the odds would still be the same.......or does the social history of the parents affect the odds
You have nothing to say of any value.
You are now on ignore.
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 25, 2016, 10:03:25 AM
So you can't answer the post I will continue to read and criticise your posts as I wish Obviously the social history of the family does affect the odds If the McCanns had a history of drug and child abuse then the probability of their involvement would increase the odds of involvement The fact that they don't reduces the probability
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 25, 2016, 12:41:40 PM
I would say your woke and wandered is quite high as is your parental involvement. I think some will be shocked that you have put abduction at 50% but at least you accept that is the most likely cause which will upset some posters. I started the thread because it appears some posters think abduction is a very unlikely scenario....which it obviously is not
Why? The clues in "why not" ? are the words "hazard a guess"
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 25, 2016, 12:55:16 PM
Why? The clues in "why not" ? are the words "hazard a guess"
rather than just criticise...you must have an idea of what you consider the odds to be...are you willing to share...if not you should stop criticising those who have. Very interesting that all three posters who have given an opinion have shown strong support for abduction
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 25, 2016, 12:56:28 PM
so by your logic if the mccanns had a long history of drug and child abuse the odds would still be the same.......or does the social history of the parents affect the odds
Is that statistical odds or bookmakers odds ?
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Alice Purjorick on June 25, 2016, 01:01:33 PM
rather than just criticise...you must have an idea of what you consider the odds to be...are you willing to share...if not you should stop criticising those who have. Very interesting that all three posters who have given an opinion have shown strong support for abduction
Interesting yes but it does not mean all three are correct. All three are guesses informed or otherwise. I'll comment when I can see some calculations. Until then to paraphrase you "I will post and criticise as I wish".
Title: Re: Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..
Post by: Mr Gray on June 25, 2016, 01:41:46 PM
I would say your woke and wandered is quite high as is your parental involvement. I think some will be shocked that you have put abduction at 50% but at least you accept that is the most likely cause which will upset some posters. I started the thread because it appears some posters think abduction is a very unlikely scenario....which it obviously is not
I have observed things. Sadie taps the side of her nose.
I think that John has found out things about this case and he is protecting his back by saying 50% abduction.
I have noticed a change in his posts ... a lessening of his vitriol against The Mccanns since something that happened over 18 months ago ... and a further lessening of vitriol for the past 6 months when something else happened.
I think that he has found out stuff that he is not prepared to share atm. I think that a thread that he has started elsewhere is VERY INTERESTING but unless SY find enough proof, nothing may come of it.
Now who can blame him for keeping such stuff quiet ... and toning down a good bit