Disappeared and Abducted Children and Young Adults => Madeleine McCann (3) disappeared from her parent's holiday apartment at Ocean Club, Praia da Luz, Portugal on 3 May 2007. No trace of her has ever been found. => Topic started by: pegasus on January 06, 2014, 01:52:58 AM
Title: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 06, 2014, 01:52:58 AM
Re SY investigating 3 mobilesall in PDL and communicating with each other that night.
I already listed one example of calls/txts between 3 mobiles (2 portuguese 1 foreign) I see no sign they are burglars
Heres another example of a triple link in the files. A T9 UK mobile, a UK mobile, and a UK landline, all communicate with each other. Was highlighted because it looked suspicious, but it is not (although the experts were still puzzling over it)
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: icabodcrane on January 06, 2014, 04:47:26 PM
May I ask Heri, just out of curiousity, why did you take your theory to the British press ( I'm assuming you did because the Express have directly quoted you )
What did you hope to achieve ?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Heriberto Janosch on January 06, 2014, 09:34:29 PM
Just to think ... On burglaries by Amelie Pedneault ... Complete.
The four entries to show offenders are versatile ...
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Lyall on January 06, 2014, 10:23:41 PM
£2.6m is a lot of money Heriberto.
Yet not a peep from anyone about anything.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Lyall on January 06, 2014, 10:25:37 PM
I think the title of Amelie Pedneault's next is 'NO HONOR AMONG THIEVES'.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 06, 2014, 11:13:44 PM
These statistics are for the US.. completely different social surrounding than the Portugal.. let alone a small village in Portugal.. I don't think US statistic could be applied to Portugal.
And even if one of the three burglars was a sexual offender, then what the other two would say? Would they like to be involved in such crime? I don't think all potential burglars would agree with such crime!
I think this is a completely wrong lead!
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Heriberto Janosch on January 06, 2014, 11:20:53 PM
Statistics do not prove nothing about a single case. What I want to show is that the offenders are not specialists, they are versatile.
A burglar could only be a burglar, but could also be a rapist, an abductor, a killer ...
A burglar could commit more serious crimes.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 06, 2014, 11:29:08 PM
Statistics do not prove nothing about a single case. What I want to show is that the offenders are not specialists, they are versatile.
A burglar could be only a burglar, but could also be a rapist, an abductor, a killer ... Including the idea of taking a child to sell ...
A burglar could commit more serious crimes.
This is true. But if three people came to burglar that apartment, possibly the same group who's done it before then to take Madeleine with them and nothing else is strange.. Why? If the all three were sex offenders then they were not burglars! They were sex offenders!
You say they can take a child to sell? It is like they every day get requests for children.. they don't!
If they came for Madeleine to sell her, then they came due to this specific request! To take the child, they had an order for. For a burglar to take a child accidentally and they sell her.. to me this sounds not possible.. unless this was an 0,000001 option that the potential burglar, when he saw Madeleine thought 'aha.. now I remember xyz wants a child exactly like this child.. I am going to take her and sell her to xyz' .. which would be very very odd coincidence.. That is my opinion!
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Lyall on January 06, 2014, 11:32:18 PM
It would likely guarantee maximum exposure. Which is exactly what happened of course. And some.
Maybe they were arrogant and thought they were the more clever than the PJ and SY.. and they cannot get caught. Which is exactly what happened. 8**8:/:
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Lyall on January 06, 2014, 11:46:02 PM
Maybe they were arrogant and thought they were the more clever than the PJ and SY.. and they cannot get caught. Which is exactly what happened. 8**8:/:
It's not easy to catch phantoms 8(0(*
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 06, 2014, 11:53:02 PM
I bet it is not.. seven years on and we are still talking about it.. Whoever's done it must be very proud..
And if all prejudice was eliminated.. then the case would be solved easily..
Maybe it was very simple... a local loner went in, took the child, abused her and killed her.. and hidden the evidence.. Maybe even not so clever person.. maybe bellow the average level of intelligence.. but the angle of looking at it was and still is wrong..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 07, 2014, 03:17:33 AM
Statistics do not prove nothing about a single case. What I want to show is that the offenders are not specialists, they are versatile.
A burglar could only be a burglar, but could also be a rapist, an abductor, a killer ...
A burglar could commit more serious crimes.
Dr Janosch, I read with fascination the first of the attached theses on burglary (Amelie Pedneault). Haven't had time to look at the others yet but hope to do so soon.
The first thesis does indeed demonstrate the versatility of the criminal in the case of burglary and the extent to which we could gain in our understanding of the relationship between burglary and violent or sexual offences in the criminal mind if we moved away from categorising burglary as merely a crime of property.
Personally, even though burglary is commonly referred to as a 'violation' by victims, I did not ever think of it in some of the terms that the writer discusses. Fascinating.
It seems that perhaps we have been a bit too cavalier and dismissive here about the possibility that a kidnapping could be connected, practically and psychologically, to burglary.
I am not sure how the idea of a gang of three burglars operating together fits into anything I read in the thesis (though I understand that particular study involved data from individual offenders).
Your essential point about criminal versatility, however, has been well taken.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 07, 2014, 03:36:22 AM
I also wondered, Dr Janosch, whist reading the thesis, about the case of Mrs Fenn.
I have often given consideration to the fact that an intruder entered and left her property, apparently without taking anything. This report contained reference to so-called burglars who appear to leave the place untouched, or take an object of fetishistic value for them.
We did discuss on this board some time ago the possible reasons for Mrs Fenn's intruder being in her apartment. I put forward the idea (probably erroneous) that, if he had anything to do with Madeleine's disappearance, perhaps he was studying the layout of Mrs Fenn's apartment in the context of the general layout of the apartment block, with a view to planning escape routes from 5A. Or some other such reason connected with an abduction.
He certainly didn't appear to be in Mrs Fenn's property for the purpose of petty theft.
I wondered if you had any thoughts on that episode and the burglaries that took place near 5A in terms of any possible relation to Madeleine's disappearance.
Thank you!
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: colombosstogey on January 07, 2014, 05:49:19 AM
I bet it is not.. seven years on and we are still talking about it.. Whoever's done it must be very proud..
And if all prejudice was eliminated.. then the case would be solved easily..
Maybe it was very simple... a local loner went in, took the child, abused her and killed her.. and hidden the evidence.. Maybe even not so clever person.. maybe bellow the average level of intelligence.. but the angle of looking at it was and still is wrong..
Thats why I think the simplest scenario is the easiest to work.
All this going into apartment, hiding, passing child through window, it reads like a page out of a book called How Not to Burgle for Dummies.............
Why do people burgle houses?
Its usually for desperation or just plain greed. If its desperation it could be drug related and if this person was coming down off drugs, they would have no fear just need money to get their next fix. So perhaps in that respect they could have just been so desperate they went in, got caught by a 4 year old, thought to themselves well a child will do I will get a lot of money for her, pick her up without her screaming her head off and head back out and off to the child sales............
I find it hard to believe that any burglar would risk going into an apartment at such a time that people could be about or walking about. The witching hour is 8pm to 11pm isnt it? We used to always go out for our evening meal between 8 and 9pm depending on what we had been doing during the day.
Many apartments are empty of bodies during the day. Surely in a holiday resort the burglar would pick his timing perhaps during the day?
Going back to the child.
I personally think it is possible that someone had been talking about the children being neglected and left alone at night. I think it is perfectly possible it was in inside job someone must have had keys to the front door. I think it is perfectly possible that this person knew the parents had gone out and went in the front door, took the child quickly and back out and away towards the old roads and lagos.
I think it is perfectly possible, but highly improbable. Just too many things to go wrong.
BUT then perhaps this person like you said Vexte just got lucky it does happen.
I dont think the person needed to be of high intelligence to carry this off. Sometimes simple is simply best......
Personally I dont think we will ever know.
I think we need to go back to the beginning, its usually the first people suspected that are the culprits......
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 06:39:22 AM
These are Agatha Christie.. Poirot and Sherlock's types of solving a case..
Modern cases are solved using the technology!
I personally feel so frustrated with technology not working well in solving this case..
And how could they? DNA lost, no CCTV images, and it is questionable if whoever took Madeleine even had a mobile phone.. What if it is an old loner who left his phone at home, switched off? The human factor is failing, the people who could help, the local people who live there and people who were there that night, they are all too much fed up with this case that they no longer care.
The first question that needs answering is: why Madeleine was taken? If there is no motive then there is no solution.. Why her? Why she was important? And to whom? Or was she important or she was just unlucky to find herself at that point and situation? I don't think these answers are known..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 06:48:07 AM
Dr Janosch, I read with fascination the first of the attached theses on burglary (Amelie Pedneault). Haven't had time to look at the others yet but hope to do so soon.
The first thesis does indeed demonstrate the versatility of the criminal in the case of burglary and the extent to which we could gain in our understanding of the relationship between burglary and violent or sexual offences in the criminal mind if we moved away from categorising burglary as merely a crime of property.
Personally, even though burglary is commonly referred to as a 'violation' by victims, I did not ever think of it in some of the terms that the writer discusses. Fascinating.
It seems that perhaps we have been a bit too cavalier and dismissive here about the possibility that a kidnapping could be connected, practically and psychologically, to burglary.
I am not sure how the idea of a gang of three burglars operating together fits into anything I read in the thesis (though I understand that particular study involved data from individual offenders).
Your essential point about criminal versatility, however, has been well taken
IMO this info cannot be applied to a sleepy village in Portugal.
The social factor is more important here.. we are talking about a Mediterranean country with strong traditional and religious bonds.. Minds and motives of criminals are different in different geographical spheres.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: colombosstogey on January 07, 2014, 06:49:48 AM
These are Agatha Christie.. Poirot and Sherlock's types of solving a case..
Modern cases are solved using the technology!
I personally feel so frustrated with technology not working well in solving this case..
And how could they? DNA lost, no CCTV images, and it is questionable if whoever took Madeleine even had a mobile phone.. What if it is an old loner who left his phone at home, switched off? The human factor is failing, the people who could help, the local people who live there and people who were there that night, they are all too much fed up with this case that they no longer care.
The first question that needs answering is: why Madeleine was taken? If there is no motive then there is no solution..
Yes I agree.
I actually DISAGREE to a certain extent about technology. Its only as good as the person who is actually reading the data. The data can be misinterpreted.
Also regards DNA, unless someone has done something before their wont be DNA matches....
Why would this child be missing.
Really logically speaking only for me three reasons.
1. To cover up a death 2. Wandered out. 3. To take away for pedophilia
The last one a young chlid would usually be found within 3 hours and sadly usually dead.
The first one, well it does happen and it happens more frequently then we imagine.
The last one is dependent on someone in the area who had actually gone over the line of thinking about it to doing it, so would probably be known or would have the right profile.
The middle one, I think if the child was going to wander out she would have done on the night of the 1st May when crying for her parents.
The problem with all the media etc, it reads to me like there were more perbs out there and burglars then their were holiday makers.
WHERE WERE ALL THE HOLIDAY MAKERS?
We seem to have all of Tapas 7 and jez wilkins walking about but no one else.....
Yet Carol Tranmer in her statement said when she looked over the OC and Tapas it was busy and noisey everyone doing their own thing..
Its almost like PDL slipped into a black hole or something, and when it came out the other end the child was missing.
Almost like she never existed.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: colombosstogey on January 07, 2014, 06:54:14 AM
IMO this info cannot be applied to a sleepy village in Portugal.
The social factor is more important here.. we are talking about a Mediterranean country with strong traditional and religious bonds.. Minds and motives of criminals are different in different geographical spheres.
Yes I totally agree.
PDL was the place to live with children, it was quiet, and safe. A lot of ex pats live there too, and know everyone. A stranger hanging about end of April would be noted surely.
Why would anyone running a pedophile ring choose a sleepy town like PDL to operate?
Makes no sense, if it doest make sense its usually not true.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 06:57:33 AM
I don't agree about the technology.. for example the mobile phone technology in solving cases is a very useful and powerful tool.. same goes for the CCTV images.. you cannot fail it.. you are there on the photo, or on the mobile phone mast and that's it.. you are caught! Same with the DNA.. one case I remember was solved many years later when a man gave his DNA sample for something.. it was then clear his father did a crime many years ago.. caught at least!
And the technology is improving..we don't know what is going to look like in 20 years time.. but as I said, if this was someone who is not on the technology radar, no internet use, no mobile phone etc.. then by modern methods he cannot get caught..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 07:03:34 AM
PDL was the place to live with children, it was quiet, and safe. A lot of ex pats live there too, and know everyone. A stranger hanging about end of April would be noted surely.
Why would anyone running a pedophile ring choose a sleepy town like PDL to operate?
Makes no sense, if it doest make sense its usually not true.
Well, I said this many times.. my own mother comes from a place like PDL.. only there are no ex pats there, only locals. If the crime like this happened there, in my mum's little town then the rest of the population there would know exactly who did it.. this is because in villages like this people know each other.. they know how other people breathe.. what they eat for dinner!
Now, the move of foreignes to there has brought in a kind of disharmony. First they do not know the family and the history of the new comers.. they can be ex criminals of high sort, just buy a house there and live a low life and nobody in there would know what kind of a past they had..
What the police ( unfortunately!) need to do is check them all, one by one.. the locals, the ex pats and the holiday makers.. it is a long long call.. but I am sure a crack would appear somewhere..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: slartibartfast on January 07, 2014, 09:01:17 AM
One comment...
In the thesis mentioned, we see that a lot of sex offenders started out with burglary. However it does not say how many burglars don't go on to sex offending.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Cariad on January 07, 2014, 09:20:55 AM
May I ask Heri, just out of curiousity, why did you take your theory to the British press ( I'm assuming you did because the Express have directly quoted you )
What did you hope to achieve ?
Just bumping this as I guessed Heri missed it and I'm curious too....
As for a gang of three people being responsible, what's that quote? something like "if you want three people to keep a secret, make sure two of them are dead"....
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Heriberto Janosch on January 07, 2014, 05:00:11 PM
May I ask Heri, just out of curiousity, why did you take your theory to the British press ( I'm assuming you did because the Express have directly quoted you )
What did you hope to achieve ?
Sorry, icabodcrane, I had not seen this before.
I knew some jorunalists read my blog. And when the Daily Mail published about the three burglars someone in the Express remember my writings, and asked me. That is all, and now i am leaving the case till SY or PJ release new official statements. Think we must wait to know all the new info from SY and PJ.
Here is the Express printed article, note in the pic how close, in time and space, the incidents have occurred.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Lyall on January 07, 2014, 05:06:25 PM
I knew some jorunalists read my blog. And when the Daily Mail published about the three burglars someone in the Express remember my writings, and asked me. That is all, and now i am leaving the case till SY or PJ release new official statements. Think we must wait to know all the new info from SY and PJ.
Here is the Express printed article, note in the pic how close, in time and space, the incidents have occurred.
Did he ask you for documents to prove your claim?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Heriberto Janosch on January 07, 2014, 05:08:55 PM
I am working in another inquiry now. I will be back after SY or PJ give some news.
Heri :)
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Lyall on January 07, 2014, 05:14:41 PM
I'll take that as a no then 8)--))
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 05:17:41 PM
Sex offenders when in prison for example don't mix up with the other crowd and they are always look behind their shoulder for some other inmates not to attack them.. there are cases of inmates even killing these offenders..sex offenders are hated, even in prison.. I don't think they started as burglars, they started because they have a psychological problem, a sick urge, twisted mind.. nothing to do with being a thief..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 07, 2014, 05:26:28 PM
Sex offenders when in prison for example don't mix up with the other crowd and they are always look behind their shoulder for some other inmates not to attack them.. there are cases of inmates even killing these offenders..sex offenders are hated, even in prison.. I don't think they started as burglars, they started because they have a psychological problem, a sick urge, twisted mind.. nothing to do with being a thief..
Sex offenders when in prison for example don't mix up with the other crowd and they are always look behind their shoulder for some other inmates not to attack them.. there are cases of inmates even killing these offenders..sex offenders are hated, even in prison..
Is this your own experience of the situation or just something you read?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 05:34:40 PM
Sex offenders when in prison for example don't mix up with the other crowd and they are always look behind their shoulder for some other inmates not to attack them.. there are cases of inmates even killing these offenders..sex offenders are hated, even in prison..
Is this your own experience of the situation or just something you read?
My experience? In which way? 8)--))
I have a friend whose job once was a prison psychologist, the one who decides when the inmates were ready to leave.. That the sex offenders are hated in the UK prisons, this's been well reported and is well known.. Ian Huntley, for example.. has his own cell and was held in a special part of prison, but was still attacked, and his throat was slashed.. the other offender, whose name I don't remember, was killed by one of the inmates. There are others too.. google is your friend ;)
Example: Joanna Yeate's killer, Vincent Tabak, was moved from his cell due to attack fears..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 05:38:19 PM
Sex offenders when in prison for example don't mix up with the other crowd and they are always look behind their shoulder for some other inmates not to attack them.. there are cases of inmates even killing these offenders..sex offenders are hated, even in prison.. I don't think they started as burglars, they started because they have a psychological problem, a sick urge, twisted mind.. nothing to do with being a thief..
Whats this got to do with anything
And are you suggesting sexual offenders start off with burglary as some practice then commit the sex crimes later?
Bizarre and the link between burglars and sexual offences is what happens in the home they burgle, they rape eg there, they dont abduct
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 05:42:27 PM
It is about the claim that the sex offenders were also burglars, which others above are suggesting.
I am saying the two is not connected.. their motives are different..
Also about the claim that a potential burglar who did the series of burglaries in the Ocean Club is ( by big statistical probability) also a sex offender..
I am saying that a burglar has no reason to take Madeleine.. unless she can recognise him
or if he has already killed her due to panicking.. maybe he was 'stuck in the room'.. and not sure if anyone else was in the apartment.. And when Matthew Oldfield turned up for his check the burglar was hiding in the room, and same time holding Madeleine.. From that room he had no ways of knowing it was Matt Oldfield, in his mind it could have been the parents returned.. and if he was holding Madeleine and stopping her scream this is a panic situation for a burglar..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 05:53:06 PM
It is about the claim that the sex offenders were also burglars, which others above are suggesting.
I am saying the two is not connected.. their motives are different..
Also about the claim that a potential burglar who did the series of burglaries in the Ocean Club is ( by big statistical probability) also a sex offender..
I am saying that a burglar has no reason to take Madeleine.. unless she can recognise him
or if he has already killed her due to panicking.. maybe he was 'stuck in the room'.. and not sure if anyone else was in the apartment.. And when Matthew Oldfield turned up for his check the burglar was hiding in the room, and same time holding Madeleine.. From that room he had no ways of knowing it was Matt Oldfield, in his mind it could have been the parents returned.. and if he was holding Madeleine and stopping her scream this is a panic situation for a burglar..
OK thanks, I obviously misunderstood......sorry...but...I dont buy your theory about burglers in the first place or they were keeping Maddie muzzled on anyones check! matts account of his check has so many holes in it not sure he ever did one....
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 05:56:14 PM
OK thanks, I obviously misunderstood......sorry...but...I dont buy your theory about burglers in the first place or they were keeping Maddie muzzled on anyones check! matts account of his check has so many holes in it not sure he ever did one....
Well, the burglaries in the Ocean Club are a fact..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 05:59:02 PM
PDL was the place to live with children, it was quiet, and safe. A lot of ex pats live there too, and know everyone. A stranger hanging about end of April would be noted surely.
Why would anyone running a pedophile ring choose a sleepy town like PDL to operate?
Makes no sense, if it doest make sense its usually not true.
Regarding strangers hanging around, several people were seen. Including a man spotted by a young resident who know the terrain well (looking over the wall to 5a).....
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Mr Gray on January 07, 2014, 06:02:14 PM
Regarding strangers hanging around, several people were seen. Including a man spotted by a young resident who know the terrain well (looking over the wall to 5a).....
Perhaps he was admiring the flourished bougainvilla plant? How does anyone deduce anyone is a "stranger" let alone a "suspicious character"
I mean fgs, a man who was seen around flat 5a six months before the mccanns set foot there became a suspect because the woman noticing him thought he was suspicious...
perhaps, but, and? Ive never heard of a burgler abducting a chld, have you?
Yes, they are cases..
But in this cases it could have been at least two reasons: 1. He had an order for Madeleine 2. He killed her while inside, and had no option but to take her body with him, to hide his DNA, trails etc..
His panic level could be his decision maker and reasoning..
I think this was the theory of the Oporto team.. when looking at 'their suspect'
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 06:09:31 PM
Perhaps he was admiring the flourished bougainvilla plant? How does anyone deduce anyone is a "stranger" let alone a "suspicious character"
I mean fgs, a man who was seen around flat 5a six months before the mccanns set foot there became a suspect because the woman noticing him thought he was suspicious...
There were previous burglaries in the Ocean Club.. the burglars were operating in the resort. Nobody is making up this fact.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 07, 2014, 06:10:14 PM
IMO this info cannot be applied to a sleepy village in Portugal.
The social factor is more important here.. we are talking about a Mediterranean country with strong traditional and religious bonds.. Minds and motives of criminals are different in different geographical spheres.
I agree, VIXTE, that the social factor is very important here. Have mentioned this a few times in fact.
But Heriberto's point that burglary could mean different things is still with noting IMO.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 07, 2014, 06:10:42 PM
Perhaps he was admiring the flourished bougainvilla plant? How does anyone deduce anyone is a "stranger" let alone a "suspicious character"
I mean fgs, a man who was seen around flat 5a six months before the mccanns set foot there became a suspect because the woman noticing him thought he was suspicious...
I' m talking about the 12 year old girl, resident, who saw a man on two occasions after the McCanns arrive in PdL, including in the afternoon of the disappearance, and who was not reported there since.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 07, 2014, 06:16:34 PM
Thats a point.....and according to heri the abductor could have picked madeleine up through the windiw when she just walked over......thinking it was her parents
Did her parents contact her via the window often?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 06:19:53 PM
I' m talking about the 12 year old girl, resident, who saw a man on two occasions after the McCanns arrive in PdL, including in the afternoon of the disappearance, and who was not reported there since.
I know about tamsin silences statement...whats the big deal about it? Did she know everyone who was there and who should havebeen and who shouldnt have been?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 06:25:00 PM
Well, I am not going to spend my day proving these cases to you.. but if you want to find them you can find them.. that is all I have to say..
Children are taken to order.. this guy, although a burglar, could've had an order for Madeleine. This is nothing that is impossible to happen. He could have come for Madeleine for a reason to sell her.
It could also have been a messed up case of a burglary gone wrong..
Is this hard to understand?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 07, 2014, 06:27:10 PM
Well, I am not going to spend my day proving these cases to you.. but if you want to find them you can find them.. that is all I have to say..
Children are taken to order.. this guy, although a burglar, could've had an order for Madeleine. This is nothing that is impossible to happen. He could have come for Madeleine for a reason to sell her.
It could also have been a messed up case of a burglary gone wrong..
Is this hard to understand?
Not difficult to understand, just difficult to believe.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 06:29:59 PM
Well, I am not going to spend my day proving these cases to you.. but if you want to find them you can find them.. that is all I have to say..
Children are taken to order.. this guy, although a burglar, could've had an order for Madeleine. This is nothing that is impossible to happen. He could have come for Madeleine for a reason to sell her.
It could also have been a messed up case of a burglary gone wrong..
Is this hard to understand?
yea it is...burglars take tvs computers passports money etc and the like, not children...you are the one that said there are cases of burglars abducting chidren...you have to back this up as you claimed it...no use saying you cant be bothered...im sure many people on this board are interested if this is a fact or plain nonsense, YOUR CALL
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 08:13:31 PM
yea it is...burglars take tvs computers passports money etc and the like, not children...you are the one that said there are cases of burglars abducting chidren...you have to back this up as you claimed it...no use saying you cant be bothered...im sure many people on this board are interested if this is a fact or plain nonsense, YOUR CALL
Sorry but I am not in a mood for a long meaningless discussions with almost hysterical posters .. I said it what it is most logical to me and whoever doesn't feel the same it is their right Also I am not interested in discussions about the parents of Madeleine McCann.. in my view they are the victims of this case.. as long as they are not suspects in this investigation I am going along with the police.. they have more info and they know better..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 08:25:20 PM
Sorry but I am not in a mood for a long meaningless discussions with almost hysterical posters .. I said it what it is most logical to me and whoever doesn't feel the same it is their right Also I am not interested in discussions about the parents of Madeleine McCann.. in my view they are the victims of this case.. as long as they are not suspects in this investigation I am going along with the police.. they have more info and they know better..
That wont do at all.....you said there are many cases of burglars abducting children....wheres the evidence? Your post 1125 case you forgot
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Angelo222 on January 07, 2014, 08:27:00 PM
I was just joking.. are you expecting a something?
8)--)) 8)--))
Wheres the evidence burglars have ever abducted a child please...ta..you said there are many cases.but you cant even quote ONE...what are posters and readers here to make of that claim then? Void innit? And you talking nonsense..UNLESS you come up with the goods that is....despite a couple of avoidances loool so far
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 09:01:36 PM
Wheres the evidence burglars have ever abducted a child please...ta..you said there are many cases.but you cant even quote ONE...what are posters and readers here to make of that claim then? Void innit? And you talking nonsense.
I know at least one case, a Mexican girl in the US.. type it in google.. I am not interested in proving anything to you.. My own reasoning is enough for me..
And I am not on a mission here to recruit McCann [ censored word ]s..by putting down those who for some reason refuse to hate them..
For me, that's boring.. almost cult-like.. 8)--))
I am a crime writer, and this is what in this case only interests me.. the crime..
Plus the question is very stupid.. I never claimed the burglars stole Madeleine. I even said many times on this same topic that this would only happen if they took her by order. Or if she could recognise them, therefore could tell.. or if they accidentally killed her.. or if a single burglar was also a peado ( which I said would be hard to find)..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 07, 2014, 09:03:45 PM
I know at least one case, a Mexican girl in the US.. type it in google.. I am not interested in proving anything to you.. My own reasoning is enough for me..
And I am not on a mission here to recruit McCann [ censored word ]s..by putting down those who for some reason refuse to hate them..
For me, that's boring.. almost cult-like.. 8)--))
I am a crime writer, and this is what in this case only interests me.. the crime..
What crime?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 09:06:16 PM
I know at least one case, a Mexican girl in the US.. type it in google.. I am not interested in proving anything to you.. My own reasoning is enough for me..
And I am not on a mission here to recruit McCann [ censored word ]s..by putting down those who for some reason refuse to hate them..
For me, that's boring.. almost cult-like.. 8)--))
I am a crime writer, and this is what in this case only interests me.. the crime..
What a stupid response, reported for the hate too.......had enough for one day.......
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 09:09:41 PM
That is what I am trying to figure out.. abduction of a girl or removal of a body killed in 'burglary gone wrong'..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Mr Moderator on January 07, 2014, 09:21:44 PM
Please note that I have moved posts since the relationship between burglaries and the disappearance of Madeleine is worthy of its own thread. I believe this forms part of Heriberto's theory.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 07, 2014, 09:28:18 PM
70 (13%) were aged up to nine years old- http://www.nspcc.org.uk/Inform/resourcesforprofessionals/childtrafficking/child-trafficking-statistics_wda96895.html
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 09:45:47 PM
... deleted quote expunged ...
That is not my theory... but it is possible that the certain thief gets an order for a child.. if it is paid well he wouldn't care what it is..
When Greek authorities recently searched for the parents for the little Greek girl found in the gypsy camp.. thousands of parents from all over the world contacted the Greek police, checking whether she was their child.. this only tells how many children are uncounted for..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 07, 2014, 11:18:15 PM
is it possible for a burglary to trigger an accident?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: John on January 07, 2014, 11:34:26 PM
is it possible for a burglary to trigger an accident?
As I posted yesterday, burglars do not target occupied properties normally. They certainly avoid any houses where there are likely to be kids present. Even if some accident occurred it is very unlikely a burglar would take a child with them. They usually scarper pronto!!!
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 07, 2014, 11:39:47 PM
Agreed I don't believe the burglar theory of abducting Madeleine. There were a lot of comings and goings past the apartment from 9pm onwards. There were more regular checks on this night than any other which is interesting in itself.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: sadie on January 07, 2014, 11:43:51 PM
Agreed I don't believe the burglar theory of abducting Madeleine. There were a lot of coming and goings past that apartment from 9pm onwards. There were more regular checks on this night than any other which is interesting in itself.
How do you know. Were you there?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 07, 2014, 11:48:25 PM
did the apartment look like anyone was in?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 07, 2014, 11:52:08 PM
Opportunity was limited. Any watchers would be foolish to attempt it. Smithman worked alone and he was no desperate burglar carrying a child through streets.
Gerry was talking to Jez outside apartment. JT was outside 9.10-9.15 MO & ROB leave tapas 9.25 MO check 9.30 JT leaves tapas 9.38 ROB arrives back at tapas 9.45 Kate leaves tapas 9.50
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 11:53:03 PM
is it possible for a burglary to trigger an accident?
Joanna Yeates case: Her killer Vincent Tabak claimed he 'accidentally' killed her, by making her stop screaming..i.e. by pressing his hand over her mouth..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Benice on January 07, 2014, 11:54:50 PM
As I posted yesterday, burglars do not target occupied properties normally. They certainly avoid any houses where there are likely to be kids present. Even if some accident occurred it is very unlikely a burglar would take a child with them. They usually scarper pronto!!!
But neither is it unknown for burglars to torture, sexually assault or even kill people found to be in the house. We've seen several such crimes on Crimewatch over the years.
One of the most effective deterrents against burglary is to keep a large dog. I know that because an ex-burglar said so on a Crime Prevention Radio Prog a few years ago. People being present are less of a deterrent than dogs.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 07, 2014, 11:59:39 PM
Didn't the Mrs Fenns burglar come in while she was in? The burglar was disturbed by Mrs Fenn?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: John on January 08, 2014, 12:02:34 AM
But neither is it unknown for burglars to torture, sexually assault or even kill people found to be in the house. We've seen several such crimes on Crimewatch over the years.
One of the most effective deterrents against burglary is to keep a large dog. I know that because an ex-burglar said so on a Crime Prevention Radio Prog a few years ago. People being present are less of a deterrent than dogs.
Burglars and sex offenders are two different animals. They hate each other as much as decent people hate them.
You are spot on about the dog but a Yorkshire Terrier can be just as useful as an Alsatian or a Doberman.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 08, 2014, 12:08:58 AM
That's what's known as a sneak thief, an opportunist.
So how do we know that the same 'sneak thief' wasn't the same person who was in the building on April 17th, April 26th and May 3rd? April 26th and May 3rd, for example. being both Thursdays?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: John on January 08, 2014, 12:13:37 AM
Opportunity was limited. Any watchers would be foolish to attempt it. Smithman worked alone and he was no desperate burglar carrying a child through streets.
Gerry was talking to Jez outside apartment. JT was outside 9.10-9.15 MO & ROB leave tapas 9.25 MO check 9.30 JT leaves tapas 9.38 ROB arrives back at tapas 9.45 Kate leaves tapas 9.50
Assuming for a moment that she was abducted, then timing was indeed critical. The comings and goings made it an extremely risky strategy so someone wanted to get her really badly. The time was running out, the family were due to leave in a couple of days so the pressure was on. I would say that they were being observed probably most of the day and evening in order to determine when would be the best time to strike.
The hap-hazard manner in which the checks were being done presented a major problem for an abductor. He was extremely lucky not to have been caught but then that brings us back to the Tanner sighting.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: John on January 08, 2014, 12:22:16 AM
So how do we know that the same 'sneak thief' wasn't the same person who was in the building on April 17th, April 26th and May 3rd? April 26th and May 3rd, for example. being both Thursdays?
Sneak thiefs strike once usually in daylight then scarper. A burglar can spend weeks casing premises before striking. Neither usually return to the scene for some time.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 08, 2014, 12:24:46 AM
Assuming for a moment that she was abducted, then timing was indeed critical. The comings and goings made it an extremely risky strategy so someone wanted to get her really badly. The time was running out, the family were due to leave in a couple of days so the pressure was on. I would say that they were being observed probably most of the day and evening in order to determine when would be the best time to strike.
The hap-hazard manner in which the checks were being done presented a major problem for an abductor. He was extremely lucky not to have been caught but then that brings us back to the Tanner sighting.
I think the 2.6m reward would have found Madeleine but I'm sorry to say that the dogs found that answer. If you follow that theory then opportunity becomes a lot wider in how Madeleine just vanished except for the Smithman sighting which IMO shows the desperation measures that one had to go to in order to keep her from being found.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: sadie on January 08, 2014, 12:29:22 AM
I think the 2.6m reward would have found Madeleine but I'm sorry to say that the dogs found that answer. If you follow that theory then opportunity becomes a lot wider in how Madeleine just vanished except for the Smithman sighting which IMO shows the desperation measures that one had to go to in order to keep her from being found.
The dogs DID NOT find the answer. Time you mugged up on what the dogs actually found ... at it wasn't what Amaral thought at all. Seems either he didn't understand their markings or he didn't want to.
I can recommend ferryman to help you with understanding the dogs markings and what these markings did and didn't mean.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 12:34:04 AM
The dogs DID NOT find the answer. Time you mugged up on what the dogs actually found ... at it wasn't what Amaral thought at all. Seems either he didn't understand their markings or he didn't want to.
I can recommend ferryman to help you with understanding the dogs markings and what these markings did and didn't mean.
There is no certainty the dogs did not find the answer since the child has not been found alive.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 08, 2014, 12:36:51 AM
The dogs DID NOT find the answer. Time you mugged up on what the dogs actually found ... at it wasn't what Amaral thought at all. Seems either he didn't understand their markings or he didn't want to.
I can recommend ferryman to help you with understanding the dogs markings and what these markings did and didn't mean.
Wait until the final report from SY once they've investigated all leads. Someone died in 5A and Eddie found the cadaver odour like he did in many cases.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: John on January 08, 2014, 12:39:34 AM
The dogs DID NOT find the answer. Time you mugged up on what the dogs actually found ... at it wasn't what Amaral thought at all. Seems either he didn't understand their markings or he didn't want to.
I can recommend ferryman to help you with understanding the dogs markings and what these markings did and didn't mean.
Truth is Sadie nobody knows what the dogs found. Out of curiosity, what do you think they found?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: icabodcrane on January 08, 2014, 12:43:47 AM
weren't burglars in an apt where both the parents and the children were present a week before Maddie was abducted
This one? Please note it was a Whole Year before 3 May 2007 (and other reports claiming it was "a few days before" are wrong IMO) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2460514/Madeleine-McCanns-parents-speak-delight-overwhelming-response-Crimewatch-reconstruction.html
Quote
In the same week a year before she was abducted, a burglar tried to rob another apartment in the Ocean Club resort but fled empty-handed after a toddler screamed.
IIRC another report of same incident said the parents were "outside" (I assume that means balcony or garden but not sure).
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: sadie on January 08, 2014, 12:51:33 AM
Truth is Sadie nobody knows what the dogs found. Out of curiosity, what do you think they found?
Could have been any human, or pig, stuff including saliva, urine etc.
As you say no-one knows what they found, yet Amaral bases his case on .... erm .... nothing ... ....cos, as you say, John, no-one knows what the dogs actually did find
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Benice on January 08, 2014, 01:05:44 AM
Wait until the final report from SY once they've investigated all leads. Someone died in 5A and Eddie found the cadaver odour like he did in many cases.
So you don't believe Martin Grime's reasons as to why Eddie might alert? One of which is that he alerts to body bits from living people and blood from living people. As he did with the Keyfob in the car, which turned out to be Gerry's blood he was alerting to.
It is not true to claim as a fact that someone died in 5A without calling Martin Grime a liar at the same time.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 08, 2014, 01:09:26 AM
Burglary 2006 (disturbed by child) = Only one thief seen. Burglary apartment 5L (successful) = No indication of any more than one thief. Burglary apartment in block 2 (successful) = No indication of any more than one thief. Burglary apartment 5G (disturbed by resident) = Only one thief seen. There is no evidence of any gang of 3 burglars in any of these PDL burglaries. Lone burglars yes, gangs of 3 no.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 08, 2014, 01:22:42 AM
Wait until the final report from SY once they've investigated all leads. Someone died in 5A and Eddie found the cadaver odour like he did in many cases.
Which location (lounge, south bedroom, garden) IYO was first?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 08, 2014, 01:38:00 AM
Which location (lounge, south bedroom, garden) IYO was first?
Sofa - Wardrobe - Garden
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 08, 2014, 01:49:03 AM
... yes that seems to be the most logical. Ok, where was bedtime IYO?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 08, 2014, 01:51:08 AM
I think something happened at around 6.45-7.10pm. Bedtime would be 7.30pm. Madeleine possibly a little later.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 08, 2014, 01:53:57 AM
bedtime in which room IYO?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 08, 2014, 01:55:47 AM
All children in the same bedroom. May have been different on earlier nights but not the night before when Kate slept in the spare bed. There's more to that incident than it being merely trivial IMO. If it's a jigsaw then you have to connect the pieces to get the full picture.
Time to get some shut eye.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 08, 2014, 02:11:13 AM
ok so that gives a sequence of 4 locations, (north bedrm, lounge, south bedrm, gdn) interesting that room 1 itself has no signal, whereas room 2 has a signal
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 08, 2014, 04:22:16 AM
I know about tamsin silences statement...whats the big deal about it? Did she know everyone who was there and who should havebeen and who shouldnt have been?
No, but I do think there were aspects to her testimony that could have been relevant.
If you have a quick look at wonderfulspam's thread on her (Dark Glasses Man), I wrote a few of my thoughts there.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: colombosstogey on January 08, 2014, 06:51:55 AM
According to the System for Internal Safety (SSI), which collates information from the country’s various security forces in the ALGARVE (the most popular part of Portugal for holidays)in 2012 there were 66 reported incidences.
Residential burglaries in the Algarve made up 6.5 percent of the national total in 2010-2012.
So in 2007 the figures would have been even less. The stats dont actually STACK up do they to all these burglaries in one tiny town....or are we to assume the 6.5 percent belonged to PDL. >@@(*&)
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Victoria on January 08, 2014, 09:26:56 AM
Joanna Yeates case: Her killer Vincent Tabak claimed he 'accidentally' killed her, by making her stop screaming..i.e. by pressing his hand over her mouth..
Yes, sadly even easier to do with a small child. A burglar picking a child up, placing a firm hand across the mouth/face to keep them quiet while figuring out what to do with them, could accidentally kill them.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Victoria on January 08, 2014, 09:30:53 AM
Sorry to drift off topic but it's just one post in reply.
Other than through the dogs, cadaver scent is non detectable whilst all the other traces that you mentioned are. I would imagine on that basis that Amaral is basing his opinion on the absence of all other detectable evidence.
Amaral misunderstood both the low copy DNA and the dog evidence, it's as simple as that. And his officers overplayed their hand in the arguido interviews to try and bluff a confession. Little did they know they were dealing with two innocent people who weren't prepared to be bullied.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 09:32:47 AM
Amaral misunderstood both the low copy DNA and the dog evidence, it's as simple as that. And his officers overplayed their hand in the arguido interviews to try and bluff a confession. Little did they know they were dealing with two innocent people who weren't prepared to be bullied.
We are yet to see any proof they didn't murder her.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 08, 2014, 09:34:58 AM
Yes, sadly even easier to do with a small child. A burglar picking a child up, placing a firm hand across the mouth/face to keep them quiet while figuring out what to do with them, could accidentally kill them.
I don't think so. At the first whiff of discovery, albeit by a small child, any burglar would be straight out the door and away, fast as they could.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 08, 2014, 09:37:44 AM
70 (13%) were aged up to nine years old- http://www.nspcc.org.uk/Inform/resourcesforprofessionals/childtrafficking/child-trafficking-statistics_wda96895.html
Thanks, but......
The number of 70 has nothing to do with trafficked for organs, the number was actually 1 ie ONE And look at the countries...vietnam, nigeria, china.....not from a holiday apartment in portugal! Sorry, I dont consider ths a serious possibility at all..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 08, 2014, 11:14:32 AM
The number of 70 has nothing to do with trafficked for organs, the number was actually 1 ie ONE And look at the countries...vietnam, nigeria, china.....not from a holiday apartment in portugal! Sorry, I dont consider ths a serious possibility at all..
Of course it isn't. Its merely an irrelevance dragged in to create distraction.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 08, 2014, 11:16:16 AM
That is not my theory... but it is possible that the certain thief gets an order for a child.. if it is paid well he wouldn't care what it is..
When Greek authorities recently searched for the parents for the little Greek girl found in the gypsy camp.. thousands of parents from all over the world contacted the Greek police, checking whether she was their child.. this only tells how many children are uncounted for..
No they didn't, thousands of calls and emails were reportedly received after the appeal but no where have I read they were all from families with missing kids!
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 08, 2014, 12:01:48 PM
Neither can I, but I like to keep an open mind. Untill I see proof they didn't batter her to death behind the sofa then I don't think that possibility should be entirely ruled out
You can't rule out that an argument may have happened and escalated at 7pm because the atmosphere between the pair could've been very frosty that day with her sleeping in the spare bed the night before. Kate was angry with the way Gerry stormed off and his flirting with women - quiz night etc. This could be the root of the daily routine change (she was going to have it out with Gerry at 7pm) and not necessarily Madeleine being tired being the reason which was unusual for her. Some think those bruises could have been from being grabbed tightly and restrained because of their location and hitting the walls later were to cover it - you usually hit with fist/hand part not where the bruises are. But hitting arms down on railings on the balcony would also have caused those bruises IMO.
ok so that gives a sequence of 4 locations, (north bedrm, lounge, south bedrm, gdn) interesting that room 1 itself has no signal, whereas room 2 has a signal
Yes thats some anomaly
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 08, 2014, 12:16:45 PM
Sorry to drift off topic but it's just one post in reply.
Other than through the dogs, cadaver scent is non detectable whilst all the other traces that you mentioned are. I would imagine on that basis that Amaral is basing his opinion on the absence of all other detectable evidence.
Thats a sticking point very much....if as some suggest the cadaver dog was alerting to urine, e.g. Why only in 5a....if as some suggest he was alerting to rotting teeth, bad breath, fingernails torn off, etc.....why only there? Also do these items once removed leave a lingering scent for months? I doubt it. Beaides, the chemical composition of a decayng body is not the same as that of eg for urine....whistling in the dark imo...no need to answer, off topic and done to death.....
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Lace on January 08, 2014, 12:47:25 PM
These three men who are known to be burglars, has it been mentioned at all by the police that they are a gang working together?
I am really interested to know how they got in to the apartment's too.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Lace on January 08, 2014, 12:49:24 PM
Thats a sticking point very much....if as some suggest the cadaver dog was alerting to urine, e.g. Why only in 5a....if as some suggest he was alerting to rotting teeth, bad breath, fingernails torn off, etc.....why only there? Also do these items once removed leave a lingering scent for months? I doubt it. Beaides, the chemical composition of a decayng body is not the same as that of eg for urine....whistling in the dark imo...no need to answer, off topic and done to death.....
It is also puzzling that Eddie didn't alert to blood outside of 5a, surely there must have been a tiny spot of blood somewhere in those other properties.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 08, 2014, 12:50:57 PM
It is also puzzling that Eddie didn't alert to blood outside of 5a, surely there must have been a tiny spot of blood somewhere in those other properties.
That only supports any argument he wasnt reacting to some speck of blood in 5a
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 08, 2014, 01:24:02 PM
No blood was found at the wardrobe by Keela. It was cadaver odour that Eddie detected there - that's his job.
Vol. IX p. 2482
location where the E.V.R.D. alerted in the front bedroom of the offenders empty next door dwelling house. When interviewed the suspect admitted that the body had lain in the room for 1 hour prior to disposal. Forensic teams were unable to extract any forensic evidence despite being shown the exact position.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Benice on January 08, 2014, 01:35:46 PM
It is also puzzling that Eddie didn't alert to blood outside of 5a, surely there must have been a tiny spot of blood somewhere in those other properties.
"the undersigned were told that they should proceed ...... with the recovery of several pieces of the branches of the climbing plant in the garden (for later check of possible blood traces on them) ......" "there proceeded the collection of several branches of the climbing plant in the garden they having been encased in a paper package referenced as trace evidence number 21" "...... delivered to the FSS in Birmingham"
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 08, 2014, 02:39:51 PM
perhaps, but, and? Ive never heard of a burgler abducting a chld, have you?
Voisey, a.k.a. Smith, was originally questioned because he was a registered sex offender, as part of a wide sweep of local people who might be of interest. Originally a known sneak thief, committing high risk burglaries with a chance of discovery,[2] he had been convicted in 2001 of sexually assaulting a 12-year-old girl in a swimming pool changing room in Cheshire.[3] He was not initially considered a priority lead, as he had been classified low risk due to good behaviour.[2] Voisey initially appeared good natured, and had a good account of his movements. He continued to strenuously deny any involvement when further interviewed. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willington_Quay_child_abduction_case#cite_note-cw-2
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 08, 2014, 02:49:06 PM
The four entries to show offenders are versatile ...
Burglaries and Sexual Aggression In Guttmacher'ss group of 36 dangerous aggressive sexual offenders, only 1 had a history of exhibitionism, whereas 8 (22%) had a history of burglary. He concludes that "the basic personality structure of the burglar resembled that of the rapist far more closely than that of the exhibitionist. In fact, the legal term 'breaking and entering' bears just such a connotation" (p. 383). This finding is confirmed by Revitch's study of 43 men who had made serious attacks on women, including beating, choking, knifing, and nine murders. Here, only 3 offenders had a history of prior sexual offenses while 12 (28%) had a record of burglary. Four of the 12 (33%) combined burglary with assault on the female occupant. MacDonald also has described several cases of dangerous sex offenders with a history of burglaries escalating to rape and serious assault.
http://www.jaapl.org/content/27/2/227.full.pdf
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Carana on January 08, 2014, 03:15:07 PM
Burglary 2006 (disturbed by child) = Only one thief seen. Burglary apartment 5L (successful) = No indication of any more than one thief. Burglary apartment in block 2 (successful) = No indication of any more than one thief. Burglary apartment 5G (disturbed by resident) = Only one thief seen. There is no evidence of any gang of 3 burglars in any of these PDL burglaries. Lone burglars yes, gangs of 3 no.
I suppose it's possible for one person to make off with a plasma TV, credit cards and a mobile phone, but it might have been a bit awkward, depending on the size.
Maria Da Graca Guerreiro Alao Goncalves (OC book-keeper): She says that as far as she can remember, during the years that she has worked at the resort, she knows of some thefts from inside the apartments and most recently on 16th April 2007 there was a theft from an apartment in Block 5 L, from where a plasma display screen, credit cards and a mobile phone belonging to the respective guests were taken.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 08, 2014, 03:19:41 PM
I suppose it's possible for one person to make off with a plasma TV, credit cards and a mobile phone, but it might have been a bit awkward, depending on the size.
Maria Da Graca Guerreiro Alao Goncalves (OC book-keeper): She says that as far as she can remember, during the years that she has worked at the resort, she knows of some thefts from inside the apartments and most recently on 16th April 2007 there was a theft from an apartment in Block 5 L, from where a plasma display screen, credit cards and a mobile phone belonging to the respective guests were taken.
I wonder if she meant a TV or rather something more like a portable computer, as it is unlikely that a guest would have their own TV with them on holiday.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 03:26:00 PM
I wonder if she meant a TV or rather something more like a portable computer, as it is unlikely that a guest would have their own TV with them on holiday.
Yep she didn't say 50" plasma did she. I could easily carry a smaller tv under one arm with phones & credit cards in my pockets.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Sherlock Holmes on January 08, 2014, 03:36:53 PM
If Madeleine was abducted by burglars then why was nothing other than Madeleine taken? This has no logic at all. A thief may not have made off with the intended booty but would certainly have taken items easy to carry....and by that I do not mean a small child. It's just nonsense!
Interesting point, buzz. But do we know that there were small and portable items of value in 5A to take?
Perhaps the McCanns had their money / cards etc, with them. Jewelry - most people don't take their expensive jewelry on holiday, or if they do they have it in a safe.
Perhaps someone with an encyclopedic knowledge of the files (Redblossom?) can remember if there is any reference to the McCanns' belongings in the apartment..?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 08, 2014, 03:42:55 PM
Who knows? Would depend on who that person was and what they were doing at the time.
Hypothesis is about 3 May apartment 5A. Shutter noise made during attempted entry by petty thief disturbs sleeping occupant. Resulting sound/motion of awakened occupant disturbs thief. Thief immediately flees empty handed (does NOT take anyone). But what does the awakened occupant do? .... relaxedly go back to sleep? .... run into lounge? .... try to find adults? .... hide?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Carana on January 08, 2014, 03:46:28 PM
I wonder if she meant a TV or rather something more like a portable computer, as it is unlikely that a guest would have their own TV with them on holiday.
Good point, something doesn't seem quite right. The original says "um plasma", though, which would seem to mean a TV plasma screen. If that is what it is, I would have thought that it would belong to the apartment owners.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 08, 2014, 04:07:03 PM
Hypothesis is about 3 May apartment 5A. Shutter noise made during attempted entry by petty thief disturbs sleeping occupant. Resulting sound/motion of awakened occupant disturbs thief. Thief immediately flees empty handed (does NOT take anyone). But what does the awakened occupant do? .... relaxedly go back to sleep? .... run into lounge? .... try to find adults? .... hide?
Very interesting!
If ,for example, going out,..occupant would need to open the curtain, open the patio doors, close the curtain, close the patio doors, open the garden doors, close the garden doors.
Thank you so much pegasus!!!!!
Such a moment!
I just thought this: A burglar, carrying Madeleine could not get all of the above either!!!!
Makes you think: 1. Madeline did not open the window 2. Madeleine did not open the patio curtain etc etc.. 3. Thief did not go with Madeleine through the patio curtain etc..
What is left is : the front doors and the key!
The intruder, whoever it was, might have had the key!
Or
He passed Madeleine through the window.. and he left tidily through the patio doors, opening the curtains, closing, opening the patio, closing, opening the garden..
OMG, was she passed through the window???
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 08, 2014, 04:21:34 PM
Or was she taken out through the patio door by someone with plenty of time to go back and shut curtains etc ?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 08, 2014, 04:30:13 PM
Or was she taken out through the patio door by someone with plenty of time to go back and shut curtains etc ?
....if they already left the window open why then carefully close the curtains, patio doors, garden doors behind and waste time plus possibly get caught while wasting time?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 08, 2014, 04:50:40 PM
Thief took no-one, never got as far as climbing in, unknowingly provided the trigger which would indirectly result in accident.
I don't think this is logical. How would the thief who never entered know someone was in?
If Madeleine then climbed the window, if she left the property this way - there would be signs of her doing so.. there were no signs! If Madeleine found her bad fate inside the property while on her own - there would be signs.. there were no signs!
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 08, 2014, 04:55:29 PM
....if they already left the window open why then carefully close the curtains, patio doors, garden doors behind and waste time plus possibly get caught while wasting time?
Maybe because it wasn't a burglar in the first place?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 08, 2014, 04:57:59 PM
Could you be more clear? I cannot read people's mind ;)
I don' think I can be much clearer. She was removed from the apartment by an adult, probably between 20.30 and 21.30.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 08, 2014, 05:29:58 PM
Q. How would the thief who never entered know someone was in? A. He thinks no-one is in, but immediatly after fully raising shutter (while still standing outside) he sees and hears someone is in.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 08, 2014, 07:06:51 PM
Q. How would the thief who never entered know someone was in? A. He thinks no-one is in, but immediatly after fully raising shutter (while still standing outside) he sees and hears someone is in.
And then?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 08, 2014, 07:10:47 PM
That would be the time the parents happily chatted at the table..
Actually people's thoughts tell a lot about themselves.. ;)
Not necessarily. There were comings and goings all evening and some uncertainty over timings and who was where and when.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 08, 2014, 07:48:32 PM
Can no-one else see that a would-be thief opening that particular window and shutter from outside, would with almost complete inevitability result simultaneously in two movements of opposite directions, the thief fleeing into night before entry, and the woken occupant going into some other room of the apartment?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: slartibartfast on January 08, 2014, 07:50:32 PM
Not necessarily. There were comings and goings all evening and some uncertainty over timings and who was where and when.
Family and friends are not suspects. I analysed them long ago and I no longer want to go into that area.. My own conclusions were; they were there too short to know the area that well to perform a perfect crime. Like me, I was in Vienna for 6 days and I have no clue about life in Vienna and don't speak German, and don't know anyone there.. so it would be pretty hard for me to perform a perfect crime in Vienna even if I had plenty of time.. and they were squeezed with time.. Could they have helpers in their friends, no. Not a single professional in the UK and I know many of them in my opinion would hide someone's crime and jeopardise their own life.. What for?
The second thing, they could not just get rid of their daughter and go and happily laugh and drink.. these people are people like us.. could you do it? And what for?
My own analysis plus the police saying they are not suspects summarises it well for me.. They are not suspects!
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 08, 2014, 08:54:46 PM
Can no-one else see that a would-be thief opening that particular window and shutter from outside, would with almost complete inevitability result simultaneously in two movements of opposite directions, the thief fleeing into night before entry, and the woken occupant going into some other room of the apartment?
Yes. that is possible. And then? What happens after that?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 08, 2014, 10:10:15 PM
Voisey, a.k.a. Smith, was originally questioned because he was a registered sex offender, as part of a wide sweep of local people who might be of interest. Originally a known sneak thief, committing high risk burglaries with a chance of discovery,[2] he had been convicted in 2001 of sexually assaulting a 12-year-old girl in a swimming pool changing room in Cheshire.[3] He was not initially considered a priority lead, as he had been classified low risk due to good behaviour.[2] Voisey initially appeared good natured, and had a good account of his movements. He continued to strenuously deny any involvement when further interviewed. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willington_Quay_child_abduction_case#cite_note-cw-2
But the point is, did he go to burgle the house or take the girl? It seems the second and not a robbery gone wrong......
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 08, 2014, 10:14:33 PM
Burglaries and Sexual Aggression In Guttmacher'ss group of 36 dangerous aggressive sexual offenders, only 1 had a history of exhibitionism, whereas 8 (22%) had a history of burglary. He concludes that "the basic personality structure of the burglar resembled that of the rapist far more closely than that of the exhibitionist. In fact, the legal term 'breaking and entering' bears just such a connotation" (p. 383). This finding is confirmed by Revitch's study of 43 men who had made serious attacks on women, including beating, choking, knifing, and nine murders. Here, only 3 offenders had a history of prior sexual offenses while 12 (28%) had a record of burglary. Four of the 12 (33%) combined burglary with assault on the female occupant. MacDonald also has described several cases of dangerous sex offenders with a history of burglaries escalating to rape and serious assault.
http://www.jaapl.org/content/27/2/227.full.pdf
However horrific these events are, the victims are not abducted and they are not children......you can quote as many studies as you like.....are they relevant though?
On a different note....I read a couple press reports that say SY are angry/frustrated because they know the kidnappers, traced through mobile phone records but cant arrest them as they have no powers....the Portuguese wont help, blah blah....if this were true why not issue an EAW?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 08, 2014, 10:29:05 PM
Yes. that is possible. And then? What happens after that?
Ok so currently outside heading away is a would-be thief who never entered and has fled into the night, taking nobody. And inside, a definite reason for waking and for exiting fast into another room. WIthout taking sides.... it behaviourally increases the chance of accident, or (if ventures into public area) abduction.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 08, 2014, 10:31:09 PM
Interesting point, buzz. But do we know that there were small and portable items of value in 5A to take?
Perhaps the McCanns had their money / cards etc, with them. Jewelry - most people don't take their expensive jewelry on holiday, or if they do they have it in a safe.
Perhaps someone with an encyclopedic knowledge of the files (Redblossom?) can remember if there is any reference to the McCanns' belongings in the apartment..?
I dont recall anything in the files but it was widely reported in the media they said nothing of value was stolen....ps I do not have an encyclopaedic knowledge of the files....I havent read every page or even half of them...anyone who says they have is telling porkies IMO..theres just too much
@)(++(*
But what I have read I remember in general but if not I can find stuff quickly, and link, thats all
8((()*/
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 08, 2014, 11:31:32 PM
Ok so currently outside heading away is a would-be thief who never entered and has fled into the night, taking nobody. And inside, a definite reason for waking and for exiting fast into another room. WIthout taking sides.... it behaviourally increases the chance of accident, or (if ventures into public area) abduction.
She did not go out on her own.. there were no signs of it.. curtain pulled, patio doors closed, the garden gate closed.. you have to be an adult and neat to leave the doors like that..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 08, 2014, 11:37:25 PM
She did not go out on her own.. there were no signs of it.. curtain pulled, patio doors closed, the garden gate closed.. you have to be an adult and neat to leave the doors like that..
but thats hearsay surely from an arguido in the case....and nothing more? You are asking people to blanket believe kate mccann, is that sane or logical?
just making a general point, I have no theory if Madeleine left the flat on her own and where from but also fact remains KM said she would be able to...and thats WHY she lefft the back door open...according to her mates statements that is....
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 08, 2014, 11:39:37 PM
but thats hearsay surely from an arguido in the case....and nothing more? You are asking people to blanket believe kate mccann, is that sane or logical?
kate is an arguido? No, you must be wrong. She is not..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 08, 2014, 11:42:59 PM
It's not a quote - read Martin Grimes descriptions of his dogs' skills - you will find those attributes are amongst them.
read all grimes reports and cv, cant recall him say eddie alerts to "body bits" from living people..eddie is /was..rip.... a cadaver dog....not a live human rescue one....
he can alert to blood and to semen but thats it
Sorry for late reply.....post on too many threads and forget to check back sometimes......
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 09, 2014, 01:22:13 AM
She did not go out on her own.. there were no signs of it.. curtain pulled, patio doors closed, the garden gate closed.. you have to be an adult and neat to leave the doors like that..
Yes IMO KM is an honest witness, the lounge patio door was shut, and the 2 gates outside (at top and bottom of steps) closed.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 09, 2014, 01:51:02 AM
I am a fan of Mr A, but IMO a big mistake of the original investigation was the deduction that KM opened the window. Was it based on the on the 5 identifiable prints of left ring finger and left middle finger?, Or (if you prefer accuracy) on the identifiable print of a left thumb? >@@(*&)
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: colombosstogey on January 09, 2014, 06:33:39 AM
According to the System for Internal Safety (SSI), which collates information from the country’s various security forces in the ALGARVE (the most popular part of Portugal for holidays)in 2012 there were 66 reported incidences.
Residential burglaries in the Algarve made up 6.5 percent of the national total in 2010-2012.
So in 2007 the figures would have been even less. The stats dont actually STACK up do they to all these burglaries in one tiny town....or are we to assume the 6.5 percent belonged to PDL. >@@(*&)
I found these stats very interesting, as it shows in all of ALGARVE there were only 66 REPORTED incidences.
Hardly a haven for gangs of burglars one would think.
Which makes it even less likely that a gang of THREE would be operating in a quiet town like PDL.
When you consider in the UK every 40 SECONDS there is a burglary, how many of them take children?
NADA, ZILCH.
So no i dont think there is any relevance to the 1 burglary in OC.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 09, 2014, 08:43:08 AM
Yes IMO KM is an honest witness, the lounge patio door was shut, and the 2 gates outside (at top and bottom of steps) closed.
And the same time the patio doors were left unlocked. Wouldn't the potential burglar who just wants to enter the property know this? What about the possibility of the intruder having the main door key? What about the possibility that the window was open to hide the fact that the intruder had a key?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Angelo222 on January 09, 2014, 10:55:58 AM
There was nothing to stop Madeleine walking out the front door as she did every morning on her way to the childrens club. Children remember routine.
The burglar theory is a non starter. Burglars don't take minors.. she either walked out the front door of her own volition or she was the victim of a planned abduction or kidnap.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 09, 2014, 11:31:28 AM
There was nothing to stop Madeleine walking out the front door as she did every morning on her way to the childrens club. Children remember routine.
The burglar theory is a non starter. Burglars don't take minors.. she either walked out the front door of her own volition or she was the victim of a planned abduction or kidnap.
Or she died & her body was disposed of unlawfully. That's still a possibility.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: icabodcrane on January 09, 2014, 04:18:35 PM
If Scotland yard really are working on the theory that a trio of petty burglars took a three year child because she woke up and disturbed them then the public should be asking for their money back
It is absolute nonsense and would be laughable if the subject weren't such a serious one
What, exactly, were these petty thieves intending to do with the infant they are, inexplicably, suggested to have taken on the spur of the moment ?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 09, 2014, 04:26:15 PM
I have asked this before, but have SY ever officially confirmed that they are investigating a gang of 3 or is it just tabloid drivel?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: John on January 09, 2014, 05:54:01 PM
If Scotland yard really are working on the theory that a trio of petty burglars took a three year child because she woke up and disturbed them then the public should be asking for their money back
It is absolute nonsense and would be laughable if the subject weren't such a serious one
What, exactly, were these petty thieves intending to do with the infant they are, inexplicably, suggested to have taken on the spur of the moment ?
A gang of three wouldn't necessarily all invade the apartment, would they? Would they necessarily all operate as a coordinated gang at all times, or as a loose association? If ever it was a loose association of burglars / thiefs, one could have been tempted to take a child without even telling the others explicitly.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 09, 2014, 07:21:32 PM
Gang sounds so much better, don't you think ? It suggests planning and organisation - just the sort of thing you need when spiriting away a small child for sale.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 09, 2014, 08:46:30 PM
The only evidence of a break in was the open window that nobody passed through 8-)(--) So what time did this gang strike? The only possible way was using a front door key to enter and exit. That window was opened from the inside and no gang would open it in a room full of beds and cots and chair to pass in the dark (risk of leaving evidence). They would be in and out the front door asap. A professional gang wasting precious time and opening noisy shutters - anyone who believes that are living in fantasy land. So who opened the window from the inside?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 09, 2014, 09:21:05 PM
The only evidence of a break in was the open window that nobody passed through 8-)(--) So what time did this gang strike? The only possible way was using a front door key to enter and exit. That window was opened from the inside and no gang would open it in a room full of beds and cots and chair to pass in the dark (risk of leaving evidence). They would be in and out the front door asap. A professional gang wasting precious time and opening noisy shutters - anyone who believes that are living in fantasy land. So who opened the window from the inside?
Or use the patio door which was unlocked.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 09, 2014, 09:28:20 PM
The unlocked patio door could have been used to enter but they weren't in a hurry and closed everything behind them and left no trace of entering that way. What time? Before Matt's check at 9.30pm or after?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 09, 2014, 09:31:27 PM
The unlocked patio door could have been used to enter but they weren't in a hurry and closed everything behind them and left no trace of entering that way. What time? Before Matt's check at 9.30pm or after?
Very meticulous and respecters of property, these burglars - after all, they took nothing of value according to Mrs Cameron.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 09, 2014, 09:37:41 PM
Gang sounds so much better, don't you think ? It suggests planning and organisation - just the sort of thing you need when spiriting away a small child for sale.
Thats what Donal McIntyre thought way back in 2009....at least two and well versed in house breaking
Only bit I don't get is where he says they had only 3 to 5 minutes to execute the plan....but also cleaned the crime scene
No precedent for this is there....though some will shout, that / stats dont matter at all
Eta Oops, forgot to link to the whole theory from the Express
Gang sounds so much better, don't you think ? It suggests planning and organisation - just the sort of thing you need when spiriting away a small child for sale.
Yes, but a gang can mean different things to different people. An organised group working in concertation on a specific event, or a loose association of people who may sometimes work together or simply help each other out.
IFFFF, for example, someone facilitated getting keys for various residences duplicated, that person would not necessarily have been directly involved in any burglaries (or the abduction of a child) unless that person was participating at the time.
Would such a person come forward? I would find that unlikely unless some kind of amnesty could be offered for minor accomplices or people who could have been charged for other misdemeanors if they had come forward. An amnesty of that kind occurred recently in the UK (?).
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Carana on January 09, 2014, 09:47:53 PM
Thats what Donal McIntyre thought way back in 2009....at least two and well versed in house breaking
Only bit I don't get is where he says they had only 3 to 5 minutes to execute the plan....but also cleaned the crime scene
No precedent for this is there....though some will shout, that / stats dont matter at all
At least he tries to cover all the discrepancies by saying the abductor was hiding inside on Gerry's check and used the window to pass Madeleine through to another. But how long is realistic for an abductor to be hiding in the apartment? You start to realise the nonsense of it all. No window was open at 9.30 on Matt's check so if the abductor was in there at 9pm before Gerry checked then for how long? Over 30 minutes is not possible in an apartment before the window is opened.
For it to be possible the shutters and window would have to be open before Matt's check at 9.30 IMO.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 09, 2014, 10:03:47 PM
At least he tries to cover all the discrepancies by saying the abductor was hiding inside on Gerry's check and used the window to pass Madeleine through to another. But how long is realistic for an abductor to be hiding in the apartment? You start to realise the nonsense of it all. No window was open at 9.30 on Matt's check so if the abductor was in there at 9pm before Gerry checked then for how long? Over 30 minutes is not possible in an apartment before the window is opened.
For it to be possible the shutters and window would have to be open before Matt's check at 9.30 IMO.
Indeed
Window shutters and curtains open, or at least flapping around with the wind!
Eta
It was very late in the day that KM described the gust of wind that wooshed the curtains open from a closed position when she checked at 10 pm or so
Before that...it was
- found the curtains open and - ran over and opened them
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 09, 2014, 10:17:30 PM
What do you mean, Red? The curtains were open but someone ran over and opened them? Doesn't make sense to me. Were they opened twice?
So, Just who found the curtains open and ran over and opened them? I dont remember anything like that.
Can you enlighten please.
see my post 535 here and the link at the end to the joint tapas group statement 10 may...therein it states KM ran over and opened them, which is different to other KM versions...must be translation errors, confusion etc though Im sure, though the joint group typed statement was prepared by them in english, no translation required as was her own words on tv
At least he tries to cover all the discrepancies by saying the abductor was hiding inside on Gerry's check and used the window to pass Madeleine through to another. But how long is realistic for an abductor to be hiding in the apartment? You start to realise the nonsense of it all. No window was open at 9.30 on Matt's check so if the abductor was in there at 9pm before Gerry checked then for how long? Over 30 minutes is not possible in an apartment before the window is opened.
For it to be possible the shutters and window would have to be open before Matt's check at 9.30 IMO.
... and he did that after 'spending a week on the ground investigating'
Makes you wonder why it's taken Scotland Yard three years and six million quid to come up with a very similiar, and equally risible theory
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: sadie on January 09, 2014, 11:07:41 PM
see my post 535 here and the link at the end to the joint tapas group statement 10 may...therein it states KM ran over and opened them, which is different to other KM versions...must be translation errors, confusion etc though Im sure, though the joint group typed statement was prepared by them in english, no translation required as was her own words on tv
... and he did that after 'spending a week on the ground investigating'
Makes you wonder why it's taken Scotland Yard three years and six million quid to come up with a very similiar, and equally risible theory
If they are telling the truth about the door position it means it's impossible for an abduction to take place unless there is lying going on about the door.
8.30 door ajar
9.05 door half-open (Gerry found that unusual) 1st discrepancy - 1. abductor moved it but Madeleine still in bed so is hiding in apartment 2. Madeleine woke up and moved it . Gerry puts door back to ajar
9.30 Matt finds door half-open 2nd discrepancy 1. abductor moved it a second time 2. Madeleine woke up again and moved it.
Kate checks and finds the door wide open 3rd discrepancy 1. Matt moved it but he said he didn't 2. abductor moved it a third time 3. Madeleine did a third time
Crazy isn't it? Imagine if that door was always half-open like Matt found it and people were mistaken on it's position or lied. That would easily explain the discrepancy of the door and would connect with the window being open. You have to consider simplicity being the key in this case otherwise how can you explain a door moving three times in an hour. It's impossible. Madeleine moved it 3 times - I don't think so. An abductor did - I don't think so. Staging has to be considered as a possibility because the discrepancy of the door and the window being open after Matt's check leads you there.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 10, 2014, 02:19:13 AM
Well.. I am going to refer to Joanna Yeates case again.. if her body wasn't found and the phone masts weren't changed nobody would know it was her next door neighbour who killed her..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 10, 2014, 02:24:40 AM
If they are telling the truth about the door position it means it's impossible for an abduction to take place unless there is lying going on about the door.
8.30 door ajar
9.05 door half-open (Gerry found that unusual) 1st discrepancy - 1. abductor moved it but Madeleine still in bed so is hiding in apartment 2. Madeleine woke up and moved it . Gerry puts door back to ajar
9.30 Matt finds door half-open 2nd discrepancy 1. abductor moved it a second time 2. Madeleine woke up again and moved it.
Kate checks and finds the door wide open 3rd discrepancy 1. Matt moved it but he said he didn't 2. abductor moved it a third time 3. Madeleine did a third time
Crazy isn't it? Imagine if that door was always half-open like Matt found it and people were mistaken on it's position or lied. That would easily explain the discrepancy of the door and would connect with the window being open. You have to consider simplicity being the key in this case otherwise how can you explain a door moving three times in an hour. It's impossible. Madeleine moved it 3 times - I don't think so. An abductor did - I don't think so. Staging has to be considered as a possibility because the discrepancy of the door and the window being open after Matt's check leads you there.
Or the person who entered with the key and with intention to pass Madeleine through the window was constantly in, hiding in the big wardrobe..and waiting for the accomplice to appear, so he can hand Madeleine to him through the window. If this was an OC worker, this would mean the worker was absent from his duty 8.30-9 something.. or absent from somewhere.. What the police should ask for is 'who was absent' at that time?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 10, 2014, 12:17:37 PM
The easiest explanation to cover the door positions:
8.30 door ajar
9 Matt doesn't listen at shutters but enters apartment and moves door to half-open
9.05 Gerry finds door half-open not ajar.
9.25 Matt and Russ leave tapas bar
9.30 Matt opens shutters and window and passes Madeleine to Russ
Kate finds Madeleine gone and window open.
That's the easy explanation to cover the 3 door positions and window being open (2 involved) but I don't believe it.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 10, 2014, 12:20:22 PM
Or it could all be fiction 8(0(*
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 10, 2014, 12:22:28 PM
Yes comparing first and second statements it definitely looks that way. door half-open as usual stands out a mile and very incriminating if true!
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 10, 2014, 12:32:08 PM
I've no doubt davel will be along to insist that any/all discrepancies are down to sloppy translation. @)(++(*
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 10, 2014, 12:40:41 PM
I've no doubt davel will be along to insist that any/all discrepancies are down to sloppy translation. @)(++(*
From Madeleine book:
"At one point early on, something was read out from my initial statement, given on 4 May. It wasn’t quite accurate and I explained to the officer that the original meaning seemed to have been lost slightly in translation. To my astonishment, the interpreter became quite angry and suddenly interrupted, ‘What are you saying? That we interpreters can’t do our job? The interpreter will only have translated what you told her!’ I was staggered."
@)(++(*
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Benice on January 10, 2014, 01:47:06 PM
Ahh yes - it could have been Part 143, Subsection 24b subtitled ..'Wot to say about the position of the door' in the ''Cunning Plan'' devised by the McCanns and their friends to pull the wool over the eyes of the PJ.
I'd love someone to explain WHEN and WHERE they all sat down to put this intricate, convoluted plan together - as it seems to me more planning would be required for this 'cover-story' - than went into the Royal Wedding.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 10, 2014, 02:12:36 PM
It's an important oversight in any plan. But the simple answer is that not everyone was in on the plan.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 10, 2014, 02:26:43 PM
Ahh yes - it could have been Part 143, Subsection 24b subtitled ..'Wot to say about the position of the door' in the ''Cunning Plan'' devised by the McCanns and their friends to pull the wool over the eyes of the PJ.
I'd love someone to explain WHEN and WHERE they all sat down to put this intricate, convoluted plan together - as it seems to me more planning would be required for this 'cover-story' - than went into the Royal Wedding.
Why do you permanently insist that any death & concealment scenario has to involve the entire holiday group? It doesn't.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Victoria on January 10, 2014, 02:41:10 PM
Why do you permanently insist that any death & concealment scenario has to involve the entire holiday group? It doesn't.
It doesn't have to involve them all, but it has to have happened right under their noses, and they all have to have either been ignorant of it or pretended to be, and continue to pretend to be. Meanwhile, a small group of self-styled internet detectives who weren't there and know nothing about that night other than what they've read, somehow manage to see something that the people who actually lived through the night in question have missed, and still miss six years later.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 10, 2014, 02:43:40 PM
It doesn't have to involve them all, but it has to have happened right under their noses, and they all have to have either been ignorant of it or pretended to be, and continue to pretend to be. Meanwhile, a small group of self-styled internet detectives who weren't there and know nothing about that night other than what they've read, somehow manage to see something that the people who actually lived through the night in question have missed, and still miss six years alter.
It doesn't have to involve them all, but it has to have happened right under their noses, and they all have to have either been ignorant of it or pretended to be, and continue to pretend to be.
Deception, distraction.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 10, 2014, 02:59:56 PM
Ahh yes - it could have been Part 143, Subsection 24b subtitled ..'Wot to say about the position of the door' in the ''Cunning Plan'' devised by the McCanns and their friends to pull the wool over the eyes of the PJ.
I'd love someone to explain WHEN and WHERE they all sat down to put this intricate, convoluted plan together - as it seems to me more planning would be required for this 'cover-story' - than went into the Royal Wedding.
No intricate planning. It COULD have been made 'on the hoof' and changed as various facts came to light. Hence the ever changing details in the various statements.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Benice on January 10, 2014, 03:26:10 PM
Why do you permanently insist that any death & concealment scenario has to involve the entire holiday group? It doesn't.
As far as I'm concerned the only viable plan would involve NO-ONE except the McCanns - because it's obvious it would be far easier and far safer to dispose of their daughters' body during the night and on their own - without even telling anyone else - let alone getting them to tell numerous huge lies and make untrue claims on their behalf about what happened that night.
The present different 'scenarios' being suggested would of necessity require everyone else being 'in the know' to some degree. However, it would also mean that all nine of them were severely mentally impaired - which is another reason why I believe Madeleine was abducted and no lies were told. But - as I've said before - that doesn't mean that everything they said was accurate - because memories are notoriously unreliable. Something which experienced policemen know all about and so would expect discrepancies to occur.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 10, 2014, 03:32:12 PM
As far as I'm concerned the only viable plan would involve NO-ONE except the McCanns - because it's obvious it would be far easier and far safer to dispose of their daughters' body during the night and on their own - without even telling anyone else - let alone getting them to tell numerous huge lies and make untrue claims on their behalf about what happened that night.
The present different 'scenarios' being suggested would of necessity require everyone else being 'in the know' to some degree. However, it would also mean that all nine of them were severely mentally impaired - which is another reason why I believe Madeleine was abducted and no lies were told. But - as I've said before - that doesn't mean that everything they said was accurate - because memories are notoriously unreliable. Something which experienced policemen know all about and so would expect discrepancies to occur.
The present different 'scenarios' being suggested
Where? Which scenarios? By whom?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 10, 2014, 03:34:23 PM
No intricate planning. It COULD have been made 'on the hoof' and changed as various facts came to light. Hence the ever changing details in the various statements.
Or it could be so simple that one check wasn't part of the original plan and was unforeseen which put a major spanner in the works. If Madeleine was found gone at 9.30 everything would've connected i.e. an abductor was hiding on Gerry's check and after he left she was moved from the apartment.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: slartibartfast on January 10, 2014, 07:08:54 PM
It doesn't have to involve them all, but it has to have happened right under their noses, and they all have to have either been ignorant of it or pretended to be, and continue to pretend to be.
Deception, distraction.
I agree that if the checking regime wasn't as intensive as represented in the colouring book, then when Madeleine was reported missing the other members of the group would start to worry about the perception and possible PT law implications of their child care arrangements. As most of the group were employed in large organisations whose cultures tend to drive an instinctive CYA approach, then there first reaction would be to fill in the gaps.
If that had been done then they would be involved and not keen on breaking ranks.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 10, 2014, 07:10:48 PM
I agree that if the checking regime wasn't as intensive as represented in the colouring book, then when Madeleine was reported missing the other members of the group would start to worry about the perception and possible PT law implications of their child care arrangements. As most of the group were employed in large organisations whose cultures tend to drive an instinctive CYA approach, then there first reaction would be to fill in the gaps.
If that had been done then they would be involved and not keen on breaking ranks.
Ha Ha so true.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: sadie on January 10, 2014, 09:46:55 PM
It doesn't have to involve them all, but it has to have happened right under their noses, and they all have to have either been ignorant of it or pretended to be, and continue to pretend to be.
Deception, distraction.
That is libellous WSpam
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on January 10, 2014, 09:50:43 PM
Jesus LOL george bush backwardly reincarnated.....
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 14, 2014, 08:38:15 PM
If a sleeping person is awakened (by the sound and sight of someone opening their bedroom window from outside) and so runs fast into another room hypothetically might that make falling or having some kind of accident more likely?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 14, 2014, 08:45:28 PM
If a sleeping person is awakened (by the sound and sight of someone opening their bedroom window from outside) and so runs fast into another room hypothetically might that make falling or having some kind of accident more likely?
Yes hypothetically.....but children are clever, they dont panic to the same extent as adults, they know where to hide or go if they sense danger, seldom bashing themselves into a brick wall though er survival instinct is higherly honed as is their instinct and intelligence..talking around four yrs old and above here
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 14, 2014, 09:01:01 PM
The actress in Verdade film climbs and leans slowly and relaxedly and so in reality does not fall off back of furniture.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 14, 2014, 09:05:50 PM
The actress in Verdade film climbs and leans slowly and relaxedly and so in reality does not fall off back of furniture.
Its an actress, it was a dramatisation, it means little in its minutae....tanner had blonde hair in it...it easnt a iteral reconstruction or literal and definitive in every way
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Luz on January 14, 2014, 09:20:59 PM
What burglaries?!!!!
There were no burglaries (or home invasions) reported in Praia da Luz in 2007.
I would love to know how the British Press check their sources.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 14, 2014, 09:23:45 PM
Its an actress, it was a dramatisation, it means little in its minutae....tanner had blonde hair in it...it easnt a iteral reconstruction or literal and definitive in every way
IMO the scene in Mr Amarals film (where the actress climbs up, stands on the back of the sofa, and leans forward across the gap to reach the lounge window) is a useful visual aid for assessing the potential risk, in a relaxed state (as filmed), and alternatively in a non-relaxed state (not filmed).
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 14, 2014, 09:38:25 PM
No, I don't. I never said that. But I have seen a quote from Amaral's book where he is admitting he has been informed about the burglaries.. in OC, what he called 'a hotel'..
Re 'abduction' connected with a burglary.. especially if we are talking about as many as three burglars.. in my own logical mind it can only happen if : 1. the order of these burglaries was actually to steal a child..i.e Madeleine 2. Madeleine has recognised one of the burglars 3. Madeleine died accidentally in the hands of the intruders and they took her body to hide the evidence
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 14, 2014, 09:40:56 PM
Deleted
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: stephen25000 on January 14, 2014, 09:41:18 PM
No, I don't. I never said that. But I have seen a quote from Amaral's book where he is admitting he has been informed about the burglaries.. in OC, what he called 'a hotel'..
Re 'abduction' connected with a burglary.. especially if we are talking about as many as three burglars.. in my own logical mind it can only happen if : 1. the order of these burglaries was actually to steal a child..i.e Madeleine 2. Madeleine has recognised one of the burglars 3. Madeleine died accidentally in the hands of the intruders and they took her body to hide the evidence
Then of course that's assuming there was a burglary....
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 14, 2014, 09:48:06 PM
Then of course that's assuming there was a burglary....
True. I agree. But SY obviously think the attempt of burglary did happen.. They obviously have more info than we do..
On contrary, new PJ investigation also assumes this attempt happened..but they concentrating on the tractor man..
I hope the opinions of the two teams meet somewhere..
This is like the new breakthrough in physics.. with the strings theory.. they had 5 theories when they were looking at 10 dimensions option.. as soon as they agreed on 11 dimensions option these 5 theories became one theory.. and this is just an example..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 14, 2014, 09:57:56 PM
True. I agree. But SY obviously think the attempt of burglary did happen.. They obviously have more info than we do..
On contrary, new PJ investigation also assumes this attempt happened..but they concentrating on the tractor man..
I hope the opinions of the two teams meet somewhere..
This is like the new breakthrough in physics.. with the strings theory.. they had 5 theories when they were looking at 10 dimensions option.. as soon as they agreed on 11 dimensions option these 5 theories became one theory.. and this is just an example..
LOL youre funny, give you that
As for burglaries, the PJ checked all this way back seven years ago.....nothing to be seen here, as you were.....
leave you to your shenanigans now....bye for now
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Lyall on January 14, 2014, 10:17:05 PM
True. I agree. But SY obviously think the attempt of burglary did happen.. They obviously have more info than we do..
On contrary, new PJ investigation also assumes this attempt happened..but they concentrating on the tractor man..
I hope the opinions of the two teams meet somewhere..
This is like the new breakthrough in physics.. with the strings theory.. they had 5 theories when they were looking at 10 dimensions option.. as soon as they agreed on 11 dimensions option these 5 theories became one theory.. and this is just an example..
Bit of a flaw in your reasoning there - in your example it may now just be one theory, but it's still a theory.
Theories aren't good enough for the police, because they don't advance one inch from the AG in 2008 if it's just theoretical.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Fierljepper on January 14, 2014, 10:18:03 PM
True. I agree. But SY obviously think the attempt of burglary did happen.. They obviously have more info than we do..
On contrary, new PJ investigation also assumes this attempt happened..but they concentrating on the tractor man..
I hope the opinions of the two teams meet somewhere..
This is like the new breakthrough in physics.. with the strings theory.. they had 5 theories when they were looking at 10 dimensions option.. as soon as they agreed on 11 dimensions option these 5 theories became one theory.. and this is just an example..
And that unified string theory happened to be named M-theory and even its inventor mr Witten doesn't want to reveal what the M stands for. It must therefore refer to Maddie... or McCann... 8(0(*
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Fierljepper on January 14, 2014, 10:27:06 PM
Bit of a flaw in your reasoning there - in your example it may now just be one theory, but it's still a theory.
Theories aren't good enough for the police, because they don't advance one inch from the AG in 2008 if it's just theoretical.
Unless a theory that connects all the dots allows you to make a new prediction that can be verified. String theory therefore is not a good analogy, since it doesn't make any predications (until now) that can be experimentally verified.
However, this must be how SY approach the case. They look at the all the facts and try to connect them in a possible scenario and then try to make new predictions/hypothesis that can be verified or falsified. As an example the latest scenario could be that Maddie was taken after a burglary going terribly wrong. That scenario could have as a symptom that the burglars panicked after that happened and therefore would cause a spike in phone traffic around the time of the crime. Then the next step is to bring in those suspects and either arrest/convict them because they confess or they prove to be innocent and can be ruled out.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Lyall on January 14, 2014, 10:35:32 PM
Unless a theory that connects all the dots allows you to make a new prediction that can be verified. String theory therefore is not a good analogy, since it doesn't make any predications (until now) that can be experimentally verified.
However, this must be how SY approach the case. They look at the all the facts and try to connect them in a possible scenario and then try to make new predictions/hypothesis that can be verified or falsified. As an example the latest scenario could be that Maddie was taken after a burglary going terribly wrong. That scenario could have as a symptom that the burglars panicked after that happened and therefore would cause a spike in phone traffic around the time of the crime. Then the next step is to bring in those suspects and either arrest/convict them because they confess or they prove to be innocent and can be ruled out.
Hoping they get identifications is probably one big aim, judging by past investigations.
But that would be messy after so many years. We'll see what transpires.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Fierljepper on January 14, 2014, 10:42:26 PM
No, I don't. I never said that. But I have seen a quote from Amaral's book where he is admitting he has been informed about the burglaries.. in OC, what he called 'a hotel'..
Re 'abduction' connected with a burglary.. especially if we are talking about as many as three burglars.. in my own logical mind it can only happen if : 1. the order of these burglaries was actually to steal a child..i.e Madeleine 2. Madeleine has recognised one of the burglars 3. Madeleine died accidentally in the hands of the intruders and they took her body to hide the evidence
I really like your thinking, Vixte. That there were previous burglaries in PdL is a fact, so the chances of burglars playing a role in what happened actually has a higher probability relative to all other scenarios that have no precedents in that area whatsoever.
It is almost a Bayesian statistic, where the a-priori chances of a burglary that night were pretty high, but given that chance, the probability of the burglary then going terribly wrong was pretty low. On the other hand, if we combine the small window of opportunity (due to the infrequent checking, so a high standard deviation around the 30 minute intervals) for the burglars to make their move, then the probability of being caught in the act could be high again. If for instance MO would have disturbed the burglar and make him (or her) flee into the children's bedroom thereby waking up Maddie, then the silencing could have been fatal (like in QM, poor MO would be the observer that changed reality by the act of observing). A gang of three then could explain some first (panicky) phone traffic around that time and the decision made to get rid of her body. Subsequent spikes in phone traffic would then be explained by calming down and aligning on a concocted alibi and ensuring that the weakest link wouldn't break down.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 14, 2014, 10:43:12 PM
And that unified string theory happened to be named M-theory and even its inventor mr Witten doesn't want to reveal what the M stands for. It must therefore refer to Maddie... or McCann... 8(0(*
OH I know it is called M-theory but never associated it with Madeleine 8)--)) 8)--))
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 14, 2014, 10:55:46 PM
I really like your thinking, Vixte. That there were previous burglaries in PdL is a fact, so the chances of burglars playing a role in what happened actually has a higher probability relative to all other scenarios that have no precedents in that area whatsoever.
It is almost a Bayesian statistic, where the a priori chances of a burglary that night where pretty high, but given that chance it then going terribly wrong was pretty low. On the other hand, if we combine the small window of opportunity (due to the infrequent checking, so a high standard deviation around the 30 minute intervals) for the burglars to make their move, then the probability of being caught in the act could be high again. If for instance MO would have disturbed the burglar and make him (or her) flee into the children's bedroom thereby waking up Maddie, then the silencing could have been fatal (like in QM, poor MO would be the observer that changed reality by the act of observing). A gang of three then could explain some first (panicky) phone traffic around that time and the decision made to get rid of her body. Subsequent spikes in phone traffic would then be explained by calming down and aligning on a concocted alibi and ensuring that the weakest link wouldn't break down.
Yes, that is exactly my theory.. if the three burglars have something to do with Madeleine.
But this doesn't explain the doors being ajar and the open window.
The potential burglar in this case should have been 'IN' before Gerry was in, and after Gerry was IN.. He might have been afraid to exit.. as he had no was of knowing if anyone would enter through the patio doors. Especially if he for example through the window saw Gerry talking to Jes. This might be the reason he opened the window. When MO came in, he was still there.. possibly even holding Madeleine, so she doesn't make any sound.. and this attempt of making Madeleine quiet, like pressing her mouth in panic, might have caused her death. But as you said, this is only a theory, and only in case the SY is looking at burglars as potential lead.
We are in 2014, I think SY might be using the technology in searching for leads and probabilities.. They surely have a computer software which helps them in this area.. with all statistical graphs, and probabilities of this or that theory being closer to the truth..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Fierljepper on January 14, 2014, 11:11:28 PM
Yes, that is exactly my theory.. if the three burglars have something to do with Madeleine.
But this doesn't explain the doors being ajar and the open window.
(snip)
Well, unless the 'door was wider than ajar' observations are all caused by people entering and leaving through the patio door and thereby causing a draft on that windy evening. When GM checked, Maddie was alive and sleeping (according to GM). Him finding the door wider than ajar could even have been caused by Maddie opening it wider herself to reassure herself and then fell asleep again.
The open window could be explained by the burglar phoning one of his accomplices and agreeing to hand over the body through the window. But the window could even have been opened from the inside (wearing gloves) to quickly communicate with a friend 'standing on guard' just outside the apartment and then the body being carried by both men through the front door into a waiting car.
All pure speculation of course, but still believe that burglars being active in that PDL area and around that 2007 time-frame, plus a spike in specifically their phones that night, is a serious lead to investigate further.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 15, 2014, 08:23:23 AM
Well, unless the 'door was wider than ajar' observations are all caused by people entering and leaving through the patio door and thereby causing a draft on that windy evening. When GM checked, Maddie was alive and sleeping (according to GM). Him finding the door wider than ajar could even have been caused by Maddie opening it wider herself to reassure herself and then fell asleep again.
The open window could be explained by the burglar phoning one of his accomplices and agreeing to hand over the body through the window. But the window could even have been opened from the inside (wearing gloves) to quickly communicate with a friend 'standing on guard' just outside the apartment and then the body being carried by both men through the front door into a waiting car.
All pure speculation of course, but still believe that burglars being active in that PDL area and around that 2007 time-frame, plus a spike in specifically their phones that night, is a serious lead to investigate further.
Indeed. I don't believe for one moment that these burglars are in any way responsible, but if they were around at that time, they may very well have seen what did happen.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: John on January 15, 2014, 08:57:02 AM
Indeed. I don't believe for one moment that these burglars are in any way responsible, but if they were around at that time, they may very well have seen what did happen.
I must say all this talk of groups of burglars wandering around the Ocean Club Garden complex on the night of 3rd May 2007 does not fit with the evidence from the locals. At 10pm on that night the area was deserted.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 15, 2014, 09:12:19 AM
I must say all this talk of groups of burglars wandering around the Ocean Club Garden complex on the night of 3rd May 2007 does not fit with the evidence from the locals. At 10pm on that night the area was deserted.
Of course the locals might say something like - 'Oh yes, we saw Manuel the neighbourhood burglar that night. We thought you meant someone suspicious' @)(++(*
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: stephen25000 on January 15, 2014, 09:13:31 AM
Of course the locals might say something like - 'Oh yes, we saw Manuel the neighbourhood burglar that night. We thought you meant someone suspicious' @)(++(*
Que ? 8)--))
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 15, 2014, 09:14:34 AM
Well, unless the 'door was wider than ajar' observations are all caused by people entering and leaving through the patio door and thereby causing a draft on that windy evening. When GM checked, Maddie was alive and sleeping (according to GM). Him finding the door wider than ajar could even have been caused by Maddie opening it wider herself to reassure herself and then fell asleep again.
The open window could be explained by the burglar phoning one of his accomplices and agreeing to hand over the body through the window. But the window could even have been opened from the inside (wearing gloves) to quickly communicate with a friend 'standing on guard' just outside the apartment and then the body being carried by both men through the front door into a waiting car.
All pure speculation of course, but still believe that burglars being active in that PDL area and around that 2007 time-frame, plus a spike in specifically their phones that night, is a serious lead to investigate further.
It would be interesting to know how many mobile phone towers are serving PDL. It would be better if there were two or even more towers but with the single tower some things can be worked out too.. In this case, the phone towers data might be their strongest facts. If there were two towers, for example, then they can work out movements of people.. i.e. mobile phones leaving one tower and starting to catch another. With this method they can also work out which mobile phones left the area that night. Also which mobile phones left the area and came back that night. If they have thousand of data documents they can filter the data to different queries. I think this method is much better re facts than half guessing theories in here. I always said they should give the phone data to few good hackers or similar, then compare their finds..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: John on January 15, 2014, 09:26:13 AM
It would be interesting to know how many mobile phone towers are serving PDL. It would be better if there were two or even more towers but with the single tower some things can be worked out too.. In this case, the phone towers data might be their strongest facts. If there were two towers, for example, then they can work out movements of people.. i.e. mobile phones leaving one tower and starting to catch another. With this method they can also work out which mobile phones left the area that night. Also which mobile phones left the area and came back that night. If they have thousand of data documents they can filter the data to different queries. I think this method is much better re facts than half guessing theories in here. I always said they should give the phone data to few good hackers or similar, then compare their finds..
Child abductors are not in the habit of registering their mobile telephones. I fear the significance of this mobile phone data has been horribly overrated and indeed overstated.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 15, 2014, 09:31:27 AM
Child abductors are not in the habit of registering their mobile telephones. I fear the significance of this mobile phone data has been horribly overrated and indeed overstated.
I know of several recent cases, involving children and murders, in the UK and abroad, which I followed closely and where the phone data was the main key in finding the offenders.
For example Jessica and Holly murder: Investigators were able to trace the last signal from Jessica's mobile phone, which she had with her at the time of her disappearance, to a small area directly near Huntley's home, and: The jury learned that at the time Jessica's phone switched off, the last signal sent indicated that she was in the "immediate area" of Huntley's house, the BBC reported in their November article. Moreover, they were presented with phone records that proved that Carr was a hundred miles away in Grimsby visiting her mother at the time of the girls' disappearance, whereas Huntley was traced to the location in and around Soham. Thus, there was little if any chance that Carr was present when the girls were abducted and murdered.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 15, 2014, 10:19:16 AM
I know of several recent cases, involving children and murders, in the UK and abroad, which I followed closely and where the phone data was the main key in finding the offenders.
For example Jessica and Holly murder: Investigators were able to trace the last signal from Jessica's mobile phone, which she had with her at the time of her disappearance, to a small area directly near Huntley's home, and: The jury learned that at the time Jessica's phone switched off, the last signal sent indicated that she was in the "immediate area" of Huntley's house, the BBC reported in their November article. Moreover, they were presented with phone records that proved that Carr was a hundred miles away in Grimsby visiting her mother at the time of the girls' disappearance, whereas Huntley was traced to the location in and around Soham. Thus, there was little if any chance that Carr was present when the girls were abducted and murdered.
Obviously useful when the ownership of the phones can be established. Perhaps less so if the phones are anonymous.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: stephen25000 on January 15, 2014, 10:25:59 AM
I must say all this talk of groups of burglars wandering around the Ocean Club Garden complex on the night of 3rd May 2007 does not fit with the evidence from the locals. At 10pm on that night the area was deserted.
Yes, actually i find it all a bit odd as we have seen the tapas lot toing and froing from the bar to the apartment but no one else, only jez wilkins...where were all the residents and tourists on the night of the 3rd.
Oh I know 6 of them were waiting for Smith man right by the bars in the town, but where was everyone else??? >@@(*&)
PERHAPS it was just TOOOO COLD to be out...
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 15, 2014, 11:06:34 AM
Yes, actually i find it all a bit odd as we have seen the tapas lot toing and froing from the bar to the apartment but no one else, only jez wilkins...where were all the residents and tourists on the night of the 3rd.
Oh I know 6 of them were waiting for Smith man right by the bars in the town, but where was everyone else??? >@@(*&)
PERHAPS it was just TOOOO COLD to be out...
There were a few during the hours, residents, diners and employees of the Tapas restaurant and bar...none of them saw anyone "suspicious" that night
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: colombosstogey on January 15, 2014, 11:18:36 AM
There were a few during the hours, residents, diners and employees of the Tapas restaurant and bar...none of them saw anyone "suspicious" that night
correct, as there was no one about not really, just usual quiet traffic. Thats why i dont buy any of this stranger stuff.
The last place you would want to show yourself is in a small town still slightly off holiday time. I have been away in this time, and its usually really quiet, some restaruants are only just opening, and some not even bothered.
However, come the busy season PDL would be a thriving hub of people a perfect time to hide amongst all the tourists.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 15, 2014, 11:22:57 AM
correct, as there was no one about not really, just usual quiet traffic. Thats why i dont buy any of this stranger stuff.
The last place you would want to show yourself is in a small town still slightly off holiday time. I have been away in this time, and its usually really quiet, some restaruants are only just opening, and some not even bothered.
However, come the busy season PDL would be a thriving hub of people a perfect time to hide amongst all the tourists.
That makes sense....
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 15, 2014, 11:30:09 AM
correct, as there was no one about not really, just usual quiet traffic. Thats why i dont buy any of this stranger stuff.
The last place you would want to show yourself is in a small town still slightly off holiday time. I have been away in this time, and its usually really quiet, some restaruants are only just opening, and some not even bothered. However, come the busy season PDL would be a thriving hub of people a perfect time to hide amongst all the tourists.
Which is another good reason for rejecting the idea that an international gang of child trafficker would be functioning in the resort in May.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Carana on January 15, 2014, 11:36:52 AM
Yes, actually i find it all a bit odd as we have seen the tapas lot toing and froing from the bar to the apartment but no one else, only jez wilkins...where were all the residents and tourists on the night of the 3rd.
Oh I know 6 of them were waiting for Smith man right by the bars in the town, but where was everyone else??? >@@(*&)
PERHAPS it was just TOOOO COLD to be out...
On a chilly evening, there probably would be fewer locals out and about at that time. If they were home watching TV with the windows closed, they wouldn't necessarily have heard people walking around and I wouldn't have thought they would have had any reason to open windows and peer out, unless there was some unusual noise.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Carana on January 15, 2014, 11:38:43 AM
correct, as there was no one about not really, just usual quiet traffic. Thats why i dont buy any of this stranger stuff.
The last place you would want to show yourself is in a small town still slightly off holiday time. I have been away in this time, and its usually really quiet, some restaruants are only just opening, and some not even bothered.
However, come the busy season PDL would be a thriving hub of people a perfect time to hide amongst all the tourists.
True, but wouldn't there also be more police around as well when the season picks up?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 15, 2014, 11:48:14 AM
Do you know that there is police around at all, let alone increase in numbers at busy times, this is PDL not Magaluf or Miami
Not in PdL itself, but there does seem to be a policy of increasing police numbers generally in the Algarve as the seasonal population increases.
Posted by algarveresident on July 19, 2007 Security reinforcements reduced in region
POLICE NUMBERS will be lower in the Algarve this summer compared with last year because they are needed elsewhere.Speaking in Vilamoura earlier this month, Portuguese Minister of Internal Administration, Rui Pereira, said security reinforcements will be ”much reduced” in the region as forces are being used for other purposes, particularly in Lisbon as a result of the Portuguese Presidency of the European Union.Tourist supportThis season, which started on July 1 and runs until September 16, will see a force of 972 GNR officers available, reinforced by 24 militaries from the Operational Battalion, four dog handling teams and two mounted squadrons, increasing to three mounted squadrons in August.There will also be two tourist support patrol teams, which include one vehicle, two bicycles and four military personnel.Other police forces such as the Brigada Fiscal, fiscal police and Brigada de Trânsito, traffic police will be increasing their numbers for the summer. Portimão will have a Corpo de Intervenção, a rapid response unit with 12 personnel during August and September and three dog handling teams.Rui Pereira also unveiled new security measures at Faro airport. It will benefit from increased security, with two new systems, Controlo Electrónico de Fronteiras, electronic border control, and automatic identification of passengers holding travelling documents (RAPID).These new measures will allow quick and secure identification of passengers with electronic travelling documents.Do you have a view on this story? Email: editor@portugalresident.com - See more at: http://portugalresident.com/security-reinforcements-reduced-in-region#sthash.c9N255R1.dpuf
I'm aware that this relates to Albufeira, but it's an illustration of general policy: The police declined to comment but Ana Pifaro, Albufeira’s Councillor for Security, said the case was under investigation and that security was fundamental for the authorities. She added that the Republican National Guard (GNR) had been brought into the resort, as was the norm during the high season. “There is no spirit of insecurity in the city and this can be attested by the tourists who are on vacation right now,” she said. The Portuguese Embassy in London also issued a statement. It said: “The Portuguese government, tourism and internal affairs (equivalent to the UK’s Home Office) have undertaken adequate steps and measures to provide the best possible environment for tourists to holiday in Portugal. These measures take into consideration such factors as the summer season in the Algarve, when the region receives a significant increase in the number of visitors. With reference to the incident that occurred last weekend in the Algarve [the death of Haggath], the authorities have launched a full investigation and are working relentlessly to solve the situation.” http://www.heraldscotland.com/life-style/real-lives/the-unexplained-death-of-a-scots-soldier-in-the-algarve-1.1107325
A more recent article, moaning that the summer increase wouldn't be enough: http://livinginthesun.info/portugal/positive-reaction-to-algarve-police-reinforcements-but-more-still-needed/
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 15, 2014, 12:46:29 PM
"Not in PDL itself"
Well its PDL we are interested in
OK thanks...there you have it, no evidence of any police presence as a norm let alone an increase....so yes, the argument stands that in a busier time would be criminals would go undetected even more so
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 15, 2014, 01:08:28 PM
OK thanks...there you have it, no evidence of any police presence as a norm let alone an increase....so yes, the argument stands that in a busier time would be criminals would go undetected even more so
Not necessarily. I'd agree that the summer months would make it easier to blend in, but then more people in the streets in balmy evenings, plus an increased police presence in the overall area could add to the overall risk of being seen / identified / stopped.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 15, 2014, 02:55:01 PM
Not necessarily. I'd agree that the summer months would make it easier to blend in, but then more people in the streets in balmy evenings, plus an increased police presence in the overall area could add to the overall risk of being seen / identified / stopped.
Disagree totally
All supposition
Fewer people around make anyone seen stand out like a sore thumb...many people around...no one is vigilant in the same way...and no no police presence for anyone to be stopped
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 15, 2014, 06:02:53 PM
lol nancy the no brain...they were having drinks on their patio
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 15, 2014, 06:56:59 PM
OK thanks...there you have it, no evidence of any police presence as a norm let alone an increase....so yes, the argument stands that in a busier time would be criminals would go undetected even more so
A family friendly place with uniforms around, that doesn't match. I wonder who is at the origin of the burglar myth. Never seen a credible page about burgling higher than average. In those flats for tourists, there's not much to steal, unless you come equipped with a large van to take everything, pretending you're moving.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 15, 2014, 06:59:40 PM
A family friendly place with uniforms around, that doesn't match. I wonder who is at the origin of the burglar myth. Never seen a credible page about burgling higher than average. In those flats for tourists, there's not much to steal, unless you come equipped with a large van to take everything, pretending you're moving.
That'll be next. After the team of cleaners and burglar Bill & his gang it'll be down to moonlighting removal men.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 15, 2014, 07:01:59 PM
A family friendly place with uniforms around, that doesn't match. I wonder who is at the origin of the burglar myth. Never seen a credible page about burgling higher than average. In those flats for tourists, there's not much to steal, unless you come equipped with a large van to take everything, pretending you're moving.
Yea,little vilages dont have a police presence, only if a policeman lives there and thats all he does....
re burglaries, some of the staff statements did say some had occurred though...hopefully soon this ridicuous theory/story will go away...burglars dont abduct children, end of
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 15, 2014, 07:03:59 PM
That'll be next. After the team of cleaners and burglar Bill & his gang it'll be down to moonlighting removal men.
gypsy ones with big teeth long straggly hair and lots of spots....and have a motorbike in the van as well for snatching kids?.oh and smelling of onions as an important witness said
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Fierljepper on January 15, 2014, 07:04:05 PM
The chances that they still remember something, but suppressed it due to their 'profession' are pretty high. The press has kept a constant spotlight on the Maddie case, so if you don't want to be associated with it in any way, you will even better preserve this memory.
Only recently they discovered that the so-called "flash bulb memory", i.e. you remember vividly where you were when you suddenly heard about a shocking event in your life e.g. like JFK being killed or the 9/11 attacks, is a hoax. The new and much more logical explanation for this phenomenon is that the media just help you to remind you so frequently of those events, that you memorize them well because of that constant repetitive exposure (including where you were when you heard the news etc.).
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 15, 2014, 07:11:13 PM
That it is worthwhile to interview these burglars and possibly use amnesty for their burglaries if that helps them to speak up about what they might have seen. My point simply is that even after 7 years memories can be preserved much better than pessimist might think.
Not sure what 'Bbl' means.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 15, 2014, 09:09:46 PM
That it is worthwhile to interview these burglars and possibly use amnesty for their burglaries if that helps them to speak up about what they might have seen. My point simply is that even after 7 years memories can be preserved much better than pessimist might think.
Not sure what 'Bbl' means.
Sorry, its net acronym speak for be back later
And thanks for the explanation re "their profession"..I wasnt sure who you were talking about exacty
I just have difficulty connecting the dots and story lines....around this burglar "theory"
BBL later too agan as its deathly quiet at the moment!
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 15, 2014, 09:32:12 PM
Yes, actually i find it all a bit odd as we have seen the tapas lot toing and froing from the bar to the apartment but no one else, only jez wilkins...where were all the residents and tourists on the night of the 3rd.
Oh I know 6 of them were waiting for Smith man right by the bars in the town, but where was everyone else??? >@@(*&)
PERHAPS it was just TOOOO COLD to be out...
The Moyes would come back home from dinner in town shortly after 9. They crossed nobody. JW as well, except for the rasta guy who has been identified as a guest. Maria went out of the G6 shortly at 10 with her boy friend and they observed that the scene was desert. Don't be amazed. If this week is the cheapest of the year, it is to attract clients.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 15, 2014, 09:48:29 PM
Maybe I would.. depending on the stuff that was around on that date.. like a good looking guy taking me out.. etc.. But I think everyone in PDL would know what they were doing on the night when Madeleine disappeared..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 15, 2014, 10:09:13 PM
Only recently they discovered that the so-called "flash bulb memory", i.e. you remember vividly where you were when you suddenly heard about a shocking event in your life e.g. like JFK being killed or the 9/11 attacks, is a hoax. The new and much more logical explanation for this phenomenon is that the media just help you to remind you so frequently of those events, that you memorize them well because of that constant repetitive exposure (including where you were when you heard the news etc.).
A hoax ? Can you justify please ?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Carana on January 15, 2014, 10:14:23 PM
A family friendly place with uniforms around, that doesn't match. I wonder who is at the origin of the burglar myth. Never seen a credible page about burgling higher than average. In those flats for tourists, there's not much to steal, unless you come equipped with a large van to take everything, pretending you're moving.
Why would burglars want to empty apartments. Passports, jewellery, phones, etc., are easier to take quickly and resell.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 15, 2014, 10:18:24 PM
Why would burglars want to empty apartments. Passports, jewellery, phones, etc., are easier to take quickly and resell.
What's the use to have a cellphone if you don't have it with you ? People who choose the cheapest week of the year don't bring jewels, or if they do they have them on. Passports ? Ask the police, they're very difficult to modify, nobody is interested by them in Europe.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 16, 2014, 01:07:15 AM
Taken at face value (as it should be IMO), the open state of the window (IMO truthfully described), combined with the absence of any sign of entry or exit through that window, says clearly: an intended burglary commenced but disturbed at a very early stage, just IMO.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: colombosstogey on January 16, 2014, 06:27:38 AM
On a chilly evening, there probably would be fewer locals out and about at that time. If they were home watching TV with the windows closed, they wouldn't necessarily have heard people walking around and I wouldn't have thought they would have had any reason to open windows and peer out, unless there was some unusual noise.
Thats why it makes no sense that a child taken from a warm bed would not WAKE UP IN THE CHILLY evening air....
ALTHOUGH, Mrs Fenn still managed to hear a child crying and patio doors opening on the night of the 1st although she was inside.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: colombosstogey on January 16, 2014, 06:31:22 AM
I AGREE. ALTHOUGH I cant remember what I did yesterday lol. ALSO why would they remember something? If they are there with the intent to burgle something they would have their heads down wouldnt they and be skulking in the shadows. I would expect if they saw someone they would hot trot it the other way and not worry about if this person was a pedophile about to take a child.
Also going back to mobile phones.
MY family are CONSTANTLY changing their phones. In 7 years i cant tell you how many new phones they have had and how many new numbers i have had to tap in lol. NOT one of them keeps their old numbers, they say its for safety sake? I keep mine and so does my husband, but the rest no.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: colombosstogey on January 16, 2014, 06:34:00 AM
Not necessarily. I'd agree that the summer months would make it easier to blend in, but then more people in the streets in balmy evenings, plus an increased police presence in the overall area could add to the overall risk of being seen / identified / stopped.
WHAT overall police presence?
I asked someone who lives there she laughed lol....this is quiet PDL a place for families not for the usual yob culture.
ALSO if there had been police presence in PDL in May no one would have had to ring the police, as they would still be around or close by.....surely.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: colombosstogey on January 16, 2014, 06:43:33 AM
What's the use to have a cellphone if you don't have it with you ? People who choose the cheapest week of the year don't bring jewels, or if they do they have them on. Passports ? Ask the police, they're very difficult to modify, nobody is interested by them in Europe.
PDL doesnt strike me as a place to steal jewellery from tourists as its just for me a little town popular for families. Not Monaco or Nice....
I note one of the residents neary got burgled was the other burglary done to a RESIDENT?
Lets be honest when you go on holiday, you usually put your passport in a safe (actually a lot of places now take them OFF YOU). The normal thing is to take as minimal stuff as you can.
MOST people now take a small digital camera or use their mobile phones for taking photos and MOST people carry their phones and cameras with them even at night for that PHOTO.
I do know people who take tablets on holiday now, even as far away as Bangkok and not one robbery.
IF you do take these things on holiday you usually LOCK them up either in a safe or in you suitcase, or you carry them.....and then you secure the room.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: VIXTE on January 16, 2014, 07:05:35 AM
If PDL in April and May was not a place our usual burglar would visit at this time of the year then why these three burglaries in the same building happened in April and May 2007?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on January 16, 2014, 08:22:33 AM
If PDL in April and May was not a place our usual burglar would visit at this time of the year then why these three burglaries in the same building happened in April and May 2007?
Perhaps he was there on holiday ?{)(**
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Angelo222 on January 16, 2014, 08:58:28 AM
Taken at face value (as it should be IMO), the open state of the window (IMO truthfully described), combined with the absence of any sign of entry or exit through that window, says clearly: an intended burglary commenced but disturbed at a very early stage, just IMO.
A good point and very possible but that doesn't explain the disappearance unless Madeleine was wakened by the intruder and walked out looking for daddy.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Carana on January 16, 2014, 09:09:54 AM
I asked someone who lives there she laughed lol....this is quiet PDL a place for families not for the usual yob culture.
ALSO if there had been police presence in PDL in May no one would have had to ring the police, as they would still be around or close by.....surely.
I didn't say "overall presence". I said in the "overall area". More units to despatch to different locations in the event of competing incidents to attend to.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 17, 2014, 12:55:34 AM
A good point and very possible but that doesn't explain the disappearance unless Madeleine was wakened by the intruder and walked out looking for daddy.
An intended burglary, disturbed at very beginning, agreed it doesn't directly explain the disappearance, but IMO it does make some actions likely, which would otherwise be unlikely, going outside being just one example IMO.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 18, 2014, 12:28:33 AM
Has anybody watched this ? Could it have inspired SY ? (http://media.zoom-cinema.fr/photos/3127/_thumbs/affiche_jpg_300x365_q95.jpg)
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Estuarine on January 18, 2014, 02:30:33 PM
Perhaps.. Though in that story the little girl asks for being abducted.. Doesn't this one remind you Tannerfacelessman ? (https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT_PCdutoDgoTkflnrN6wBPZIGCaZDIsZKut-vuOCLRzp1KBI6jsg)
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: drummer on January 18, 2014, 06:44:24 PM
Some things inspire some more than others Anne, I would have imagined that an image of a mangled wreck or a constant reminder of the breathalyser in a Policeman's pocket would deter most serving officers to stop drink driving, but then each to their own eh?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Luz on January 18, 2014, 08:19:12 PM
Re SY investigating 3 mobilesall in PDL and communicating with each other that night.
I already listed one example of calls/txts between 3 mobiles (2 portuguese 1 foreign) I see no sign they are burglars
Heres another example of a triple link in the files. A T9 UK mobile, a UK mobile, and a UK landline, all communicate with each other. Was highlighted because it looked suspicious, but it is not (although the experts were still puzzling over it)
I'm afraid the British public is going to be disappointed because there were no burglaries (home invasions or attempts) reported in the Ocean Club or whereabouts in 2007.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 18, 2014, 08:44:08 PM
I'm afraid the British public is going to be disappointed because there were no burglaries (home invasions or attempts) reported in the Ocean Club or whereabouts in 2007.
Apartment 5G (although not owned by Ocean Club) is immediately above 5A, and very clearly an interrupted burglary attempt in April 2007 is reported there, it is in the files, do you want link?.
P.S. However IMO the 3 people intercommunicating by mobiles that night are likely to be searchers, NOT burglar(s). IMO a lone burglar is far more likely than a gang of 3.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 18, 2014, 08:48:08 PM
Apartment 5G (although not owned by Ocean Club) is immediately above 5A, and very clearly an interrupted burglary attempt in April 2007 is reported there, it is in the files, do you want link?.
Even if there were 2 or 200 burglaries, there is no precedent for a burglar being disturbed by a child and abducting it! No one has, after beng asked numerous times, been able to provide such "evidence"
Its bloody nonsense IMO!
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 18, 2014, 09:09:07 PM
Apartment 5G (although not owned by Ocean Club) is immediately above 5A, and very clearly an interrupted burglary attempt in April 2007 is reported there, it is in the files, do you want link?.
Do you know another one ?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 18, 2014, 09:17:01 PM
Even if there were 2 or 200 burglaries, there is no precedent for a burglar being disturbed by a child and abducting it! No one has, after beng asked numerous times, been able to provide such "evidence"
Its bloody nonsense IMO!
Agreed 101%, this child was not taken by a burglar. What I am suggesting is different: that there WAS a burglar that night, who did NOT take the child.
Being disturbed by a burglar beginning to enter window would trigger (if in a bed rather than a highsided cot) fleeing into another room and (in the unusual case of no adults present) a heightened risk of accident.
BTW there was an attempted burglary in PDL in 2006 where a burglar entered, was disturbed by a child, and fled empty handed.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 18, 2014, 09:25:13 PM
Agreed 101%, this child was not taken by a burglar. What I am suggesting is different: that there WAS a burglar that night, who did NOT take the child.
Being disturbed by a burglar beginning to enter window would trigger (if in a bed rather than a highsided cot) fleeing into another room and (in the unusual case of no adults present) a heightened risk of accident.
BTW there was an attempted burglary in PDL in 2006 where a burglar entered, was disturbed by a child, and fled empty handed.
But thats assuming so much..that the burglar raised the shutters and also found an open window inside from which he could stick his hands in and use the web pulley to keep the shutters up...and no forensics And what time is this theory centred on? What evidence is there that it was a burglar and not a staged opening?
Eta also why does it matter if there was an attempted burglary if your theory is accident caused by running away frm the noise?
On a related matter I find the fact KM said she never opened the windows or shutters all week odd...what with sleeping toddlers and stinky nappies and no fresh air?nor sunlight? Oh well, each to their own
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 18, 2014, 10:02:02 PM
But thats assuming so much..that the burglar raised the shutters and also found an open window inside from which he could stick his hands in and use the web pulley to keep the shutters up...and no forensics
And what time is this theory centred on?
What evidence is there that it was a burglar and not a staged opening?
Eta also why does it matter if there was an attempted burglary if your theory is accident caused by running away frm the noise?
On a related matter I find the fact KM said she never opened the windows or shutters all week odd...what with sleeping toddlers and stinky nappies and no fresh air?nor sunlight? Oh well, each to their own
1. Yes that is the method. There were various prints on the window and on the outside of the shutter, the majority were unidentifiable. The webbing strap which raises the shutter would not be a suitable material for retaing prints.
2. Between approx 8.30pm and approx 9.55pm.
3. The evidence for staged opening was the POSITIONS on bedroom window of the 5 prints of KM. In fact the photo taken by forensics showing the position (on edge of sliding frame) of a GNR thumbprint on lounge door was mistakenly used as if it was a KM print on bedroom window.
4. SIgnificant in many ways just a few examples are: Explains reason for going into another room. Explains significantly increased risk of accident. Confirms that KM is an honest witness .
5. Previous days I don't know about, on evening 3 May the sliding window was in the shut position but neither adult remembers pressing the lock button.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 19, 2014, 04:27:51 PM
1. Yes that is the method. There were various prints on the window and on the outside of the shutter, the majority were unidentifiable. The webbing strap which raises the shutter would not be a suitable material for retaing prints. I am not aware there were various prints on the window......Just KMs...as for the shutters three unidentifiable prints were found which is not illogcal to assume they were the tapas groups who testified they tried to raise the shutters from the outside that night
2. Between approx 8.30pm and approx 9.55pm.
3. The evidence for staged opening was the POSITIONS on bedroom window of the 5 prints of KM. In fact the photo taken by forensics showing the position (on edge of sliding frame) of a GNR thumbprint on lounge door was mistakenly used as if it was a KM print on bedroom window. Never seen this
4. SIgnificant in many ways just a few examples are: Explains reason for going into another room. Explains significantly increased risk of accident. Confirms that KM is an honest witness . Thats all supposition IMO
5. Previous days I don't know about, on evening 3 May the sliding window was in the shut position but neither adult remembers pressing the lock button. KM said she never touched the window or shutters all week, as for neither of them remebering whether they shut or locked windows or doors, well, thats becoming a pattern which is hard to believe just for the fact that when you keave three babies alone you would kind of remember what safety precautions you took
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 19, 2014, 04:33:09 PM
1. Yes that is the method. There were various prints on the window and on the outside of the shutter, the majority were unidentifiable. The webbing strap which raises the shutter would not be a suitable material for retaing prints.
2. Between approx 8.30pm and approx 9.55pm.
3. The evidence for staged opening was the POSITIONS on bedroom window of the 5 prints of KM. In fact the photo taken by forensics showing the position (on edge of sliding frame) of a GNR thumbprint on lounge door was mistakenly used as if it was a KM print on bedroom window.
4. SIgnificant in many ways just a few examples are: Explains reason for going into another room. Explains significantly increased risk of accident. Confirms that KM is an honest witness .
5. Previous days I don't know about, on evening 3 May the sliding window was in the shut position but neither adult remembers pressing the lock button.
Where do these data come from ?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Lace on January 19, 2014, 06:07:15 PM
But thats assuming so much..that the burglar raised the shutters and also found an open window inside from which he could stick his hands in and use the web pulley to keep the shutters up...and no forensics And what time is this theory centred on? What evidence is there that it was a burglar and not a staged opening?
Eta also why does it matter if there was an attempted burglary if your theory is accident caused by running away frm the noise?
On a related matter I find the fact KM said she never opened the windows or shutters all week odd...what with sleeping toddlers and stinky nappies and no fresh air?nor sunlight? Oh well, each to their own
If there was someone working for the OC involved, they could have made sure the window was open.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Benice on January 19, 2014, 06:09:19 PM
Even if there were 2 or 200 burglaries, there is no precedent for a burglar being disturbed by a child and abducting it! No one has, after beng asked numerous times, been able to provide such "evidence"
Colo. parolee charged with kidnapping, burglary in attempted abduction of Aurora girl Published November 05, 2013Associated Press
AURORA, COLO. – Prosecutors have filed charges against a man accused of trying to abduct an 8-year-old girl from her bedroom in Aurora, Colo.
Twenty-six-year-old John Stanley Snorsky was charged Tuesday with several counts including kidnapping, burglary and assault.
The attempted abduction happened early in the morning on Oct. 28. According to police, the girl escaped by pinching Snorsky and running away.
Investigators say his DNA was found on the girl's clothing.
Snorsky had been on parole for a burglary conviction. He was arrested the day after the attempted abduction on an unrelated charge and later linked to the kidnapping case.
It's not clear if he has a lawyer.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 19, 2014, 06:13:29 PM
Colo. parolee charged with kidnapping, burglary in attempted abduction of Aurora girl Published November 05, 2013Associated Press
AURORA, COLO. – Prosecutors have filed charges against a man accused of trying to abduct an 8-year-old girl from her bedroom in Aurora, Colo.
Twenty-six-year-old John Stanley Snorsky was charged Tuesday with several counts including kidnapping, burglary and assault.
The attempted abduction happened early in the morning on Oct. 28. According to police, the girl escaped by pinching Snorsky and running away.
Investigators say his DNA was found on the girl's clothing.
Snorsky had been on parole for a burglary conviction. He was arrested the day after the attempted abduction on an unrelated charge and later linked to the kidnapping case.
It's not clear if he has a lawyer.
The crime was abduction, burglarly was a by product though another charge,....he broke in...he wasnt there to burgle but to abduct...I give up
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Lace on January 19, 2014, 06:19:40 PM
The crime was abduction, burglarly was a by product though another charge,....he broke in...he wasnt there to burgle but to abduct...I give up
Some further info on this burglar/kidnapper:-
QUOTE
AURORA -The man accused of kidnapping an 8-year-old girl and burglarizing a home on Oct. 28 was formally advised of his charges Friday morning.
John Stanley Snorsky, 26, is charged with second-degree kidnapping, first-degree burglary, second-degree burglary, enticement of a child, child abuse and third-degree assault.
His bond was set at $500,000.
Police say Snorsky carried the 8-year-old girl from her bedroom to an alley behind her Aurora home last week, where she screamed and managed to break free.
Snorsky was already in custody on an unrelated charge of false reporting to a pawn shop when he was accused in the attempted kidnapping.
When Snorsky was taken into custody that same night on the unrelated parole violation, police noticed his clothing matched the attempted kidnapping suspect's description.
A search warrant was executed and clothing from Snorsky was taken along with a sample of his DNA.
Results indicated that the DNA found on the girl's clothing matched Snorsky.
Police later received a tip from a woman who claimed to at one point have been Snorsky's foster mother. She says she never reported to police that she had caught him watch child pornography on his computer. She also said he had been texting her occasionally pictures of male genitalia and went by the name "Jonathan."
Police say at the time of the tip, it was not publicly revealed that the man accused of kidnapping the girl told her his name was Jonathan. He also asked the girl for a hug.
"If he could do that to a child ... he can do it to anybody," the girl's grandmother, Beatrice Padilla, told 9NEWS.
Snorsky now faces charges of kidnapping and burglary.
The burglary charges allege that Snorsky staged a burglary at the home of Linda Taylor. He was living as her roommate at the time.
On Sept. 4, Taylor reported the burglary in which $14,000 of cash and more than $50,000 of jewelry was stolen. She alerted Snorsky to the incident and believed she had been robbed through a window in the basement.
In October, Snorsky the affidavit says that he had pawned a large amount of women's jewelry. Police were alerted to this and showed pictures of the items to Taylor.
What if they had to hand their key in when they finished work?
Ok so.... whilst they had use of the key, ie Mrs Cleaner on Wednesday morning, left the window open for the kidnappers the day after to get in...OK that makes sense, not much though
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Estuarine on January 19, 2014, 06:30:56 PM
The crime was abduction, burglarly was a by product though another charge,....he broke in...he wasnt there to burgle but to abduct...I give up
When Tannerman was the lynchpin none of this mattered because then it was a straightforward abduction. Dashed unsporting of him to have been an apparition. So we now have to have a convoluted tale to replace the previous convoluted tale and keep going til we find one that sticks. I take it on faith a lot on here are parents? "You never believed your kids when they came up with such unlikely tales, and kept modifying them, to explain how they lost a shoe or ripped their blazer"
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: AnneGuedes on January 19, 2014, 10:07:47 PM
When Tannerman was the lynchpin none of this mattered because then it was a straightforward abduction. Dashed unsporting of him to have been an apparition. So we now have to have a convoluted tale to replace the previous convoluted tale and keep going til we find one that sticks. I take it on faith a lot on here are parents? "You never believed your kids when they came up with such unlikely tales, and kept modifying them, to explain how they lost a shoe or ripped their blazer"
Exactly ! ?{)(**
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 21, 2014, 11:20:21 PM
Need help finding a page in the files (difficult), definitely exists, saw it, now can't find it again. The page wanted has two tables of mobile calls/txts. First table is ALL mobile to mobile calls/ txts entirely on PDL masts from approx 9:00pm to approx 9:20pm on 03 May 2007. Second table is same but covers between approx 9:45pm to 10.15pm on 03 May 2007. Note these tables are not of T9 calls/txts, they are of ALL mobile to mobile where both parties are on PDL masts.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Heriberto Janosch on January 21, 2014, 11:35:31 PM
Need help finding a page in the files (difficult), definitely exists, saw it, now can't find it again. The page wanted has two tables of mobile calls/txts. First table is ALL mobile to mobile calls/ txts entirely on PDL masts from approx 9:00pm to approx 9:20pm on 03 May 2007. Second table is same but covers between approx 9:45pm to 10.15pm on 03 May 2007. Note these tables are not of T9 calls/txts, they are of ALL mobile to mobile where both parties are on PDL masts.
Hi pegasus, Analysis of the first 11 volumes, appendixes 90 and 91.
By the way, I wrote in another thread:
I do not know if my hypothesis is right.
My hypothesis involves one by then Ocean Club employee, with a previous record of theft (someone called him Heribertoman here, and of course he was not the black dead man Euclides).
I have sent his name to Scotland Yard Operation Grange and Polícia Judiciária Oporto teams in June 2013, along with many details I can not publish yet. I also have sent to both of them, in June 2013, two more things: (a) data of two additional OC employees who may be related to Heribertoman, and (b) data of a fourth OC employee who may know about the burglaries.
Some of the information given in Crimewatch TV program of October 14th. 2013 is directly related to Heribertoman.
I think Madeleine was caught because the burglar felt she may recognize him.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 22, 2014, 01:20:50 AM
@Heriberto Thanks, with your help I have found the pages of mobile to mobile traffic.
Re your theory I think the opening method is good and what happened, but then he flees emptyhanded as soon as he realises someone is in the apartment. He would realise this before he climbs in because he makes shutter noise which wakes and reveals presence of occupant, so he flees not taking anyone. IMO.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Heriberto Janosch on January 23, 2014, 12:55:44 PM
Chegou pedido da polícia inglesa para inquirir suspeitos no caso Maddie
A Procuradoria-Geral da República já recebeu a carta rogatória sobre o caso Madeleine McCann. Entre as diligências pedidas pelas autoridades britânicas estão inquirições aos três homens que os detetives consideram suspeitos, por terem feito vários telefonemas junto ao aldeamento turístico da praia da Luz, em Lagos, na noite em que a criança desapareceu.
A carta rogatória vai ser agora remetida ao Tribunal de Portimão e as diligências deverão ser entregues e cumpridas, uma vez mais, pela Polícia Judiciária (PJ).
Este é o segundo pedido de auxílio das autoridades britânicas relacionado com o desaparecimento, ocorrido a 3 de maio de 2007, quando a criança tinha três anos.
Trata-se de um conjunto de diligências que os detetives pedem que sejam feitas em Portugal, no âmbito da investigação que decorre em Inglaterra.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Heriberto Janosch on January 23, 2014, 01:01:45 PM
Thanks Hael for the Google translation ...
Request of British police arrived to investigate suspects in Maddie case
The Attorney General's Office has received a letter of request on the Madeleine McCann case. Among the steps taken by the British authorities ordered inquiries are the three men who detectives believe the suspects, for having made several phone calls in the tourist resort of Praia da Luz , Lagos , on the night the child disappeared .
The letter of request will now be forwarded to the Court of Portimão and steps should be completed and delivered once again , by the Judicial Police ( PJ ) .
This is the second request for help from the British authorities related to the disappearance , which occurred on May 3, 2007 , when the child was three years old .
This is a set of steps that detectives ask which are made in Portugal , in the research taking place in England.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 23, 2014, 10:33:52 PM
IMO these three people in the phone records will be found to be searchers. It is pretty obvious that when a child disappears, some peoples mobiles are going to be red hot, because they are out searching, and calling/txting each other "any news, has anyone found her yet?
I already showed from the rogs that the "two men talking loudly at 11pm then walking away" on Crimewatch is very probably 2 searchers of the T7 crossing paths near Luztur, again pretty obvious that T7 people out searching when they cross paths are going to talk loudly given the urgent situation of missing child..
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on January 23, 2014, 10:45:20 PM
I would not even be surprised if the 3 people whose mobiles were red hot turn out to be holiday company execs / employees, obviously their mobiles would be red hot after a child disappeared, because they are desparately searching, and you would get a mix of portuguese and UK numbers. Not saying that's the answer, just a theoretical possibility. The idea that red hot mobiles during a seach for a missing child implies the mobile owners are criminals is simply illogical IMO.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Redblossom on January 23, 2014, 10:52:08 PM
Wll said pegasus, unless police have contents of the calls they wouldnt know if they were talking about the latest footie match results, gambling wins, eggs on to hurry up to a party or any other normal reason, and yea, madeleine related searches! Perhaps its the t9 calls theyve found!
Perhaps hilda was calling heidi and chatting about their next door neighbours affair or the latest episode of a soap opera!
But it was "reported" the phone calls were made by burglars LOL
Cant keep a straight face in this bunch of total and utter nonsense
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 03, 2014, 01:01:18 AM
".... after Madeleine disappeared I, I checked the err some of the windows in our apartment and they weren’t locked, we hadn’t, we hadn’t thought of checking them you know ...." http://www.mccannfiles.com/id254.html at approx 00:15:00
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Brietta on April 03, 2014, 06:08:28 PM
Wll said pegasus, unless police have contents of the calls they wouldnt know if they were talking about the latest footie match results, gambling wins, eggs on to hurry up to a party or any other normal reason, and yea, madeleine related searches! Perhaps its the t9 calls theyve found!
Perhaps hilda was calling heidi and chatting about their next door neighbours affair or the latest episode of a soap opera!
But it was "reported" the phone calls were made by burglars LOL
Cant keep a straight face in this bunch of total and utter nonsense
I would not have a problem with all the people making phone calls in the immediate area under investigation and at the time immediately before and after what could reasonably be supposed the time Madeleine McCann disappeared being investigated.
They could be searchers. They could be perpetrators. They could be Uncle Tom Cobbley an' all. They could be witnesses to an abduction.
Whoever they may be, it is my opinion they should be ruled in or out of the investigation as a matter of urgency, which will allow the PJ and NSY to progress to the next step.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 03, 2014, 10:05:41 PM
What I posted above from DW rog is further confirmation that the specific design of sliding aluminium window fitted in apartments in block 5 do not automatically lock when one slides them shut.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Mr Gray on April 03, 2014, 10:46:32 PM
Take it from a parent and a teacher....instead of a brief and simple explanation [ therefore almost always credible] for why homework had not been handed in, I would get something like
" Miss, sorry Miss, I got home late because I missed my bus/ had to visit a sick friend/ relative on my way home, then Mum was in late from work and because of that I had to do some shopping for stuff to eat, had to tidy up a bit, then helped Mum cook. Dad got in late cos his car had a problem , then he was in a bad mood because he did not like what we had cooked. So then Mum and Dad argued and I couldn't concentrate on my work, Miss and I was shattered Miss because I hadn't stopped for hours....
reminding me of the over-egging of the pudding done by Kate McCann in her book, describing her entrance and toing and froing on her 10 pm check. Building up the drama...I didn't and don't believe her, either.
So you think being a parent and a teacher gives you a somewhat greater insight into spotting lies......I am afraid you are deluding yourself
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Admin on April 03, 2014, 11:43:19 PM
What I posted above from DW rog is further confirmation that the specific design of sliding aluminium window fitted in apartments in block 5 do not automatically lock when one slides them shut.
The children's bedroom window and locking mechanism.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 04, 2014, 12:14:53 AM
Thanks Admin. In the top right photo looking carefully you can see the hole, into which the lockpin will go if you slide the window closed AND then depress the top button. The hole is circular, it has no angled surface, which proves IMO that the window does not autolock when you slide it shut.
That physical feature of the window is illustrated by what I posted from DW rog: later she found some of her apartment windows were closed but not locked.
IMO recognising that the window does not auto-lock, is the very first (and absolutely essential) small step in examining this case, and I hope SY have taken this basic step of establishing this so important detail.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: John on April 04, 2014, 01:17:27 AM
Thanks Admin. In the top right photo looking carefully you can see the hole, into which the lockpin will go if you slide the window closed AND then depress the top button. The hole is circular, it has no angled surface, which proves IMO that the window does not autolock when you slide it shut.
That physical feature of the window is illustrated by what I posted from DW rog: later she found some of her apartment windows were closed but not locked.
IMO recognising that the window does not auto-lock, is the very first (and absolutely essential) small step in examining this case, and I hope SY have taken this basic step of establishing this so important detail.
Well spotted, I would have thought the window locked automatically but you are right, you have to push the mechanism in to lock it. Real cheapo windays.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 04, 2014, 01:34:35 AM
Well spotted, I would have thought the window locked automatically but you are right, you have to push the mechanism in to lock it. Real cheapo windays.
If you press the top button before sliding the window closed, the extended metal lockpin hits the edge of the other pane's aluminium frame, as proven by video footage of someone doing exactly that in Mr Amaral's film.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 06, 2014, 12:27:21 AM
One of many cases of an attempted burglary happening while a child is left home alone. Location: Humboldt County, California, USA. A 9-year-old girl is home alone while the adults go out for a jog. Thinking everyone is out, a burglar enters the residence. But as soon as he realises there is someone home (the child), the burglar flees. http://lostcoastoutpost.com/2013/sep/27/9-year-old/
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 06, 2014, 12:36:29 AM
Another of the many cases of attempted burglary while a child is home alone. Location: Troutdale, Oregon, USA: A 12-year-old girl is home alone Burglar thinks no-one is home, so burglar enters residence. The girl hides in a bedroom. http://www.aolnews.com/2010/05/27/home-alone-12-year-old-thwarts-burglary/
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 06, 2014, 12:49:26 AM
And another attempted burglary while child home alone. Location: Camas, Washington State, USA. A 10-year-old girl is home (off school sick), and parent goes out briefly. A burglar thinks everyone is out, and enters residence. The girl hides in the pantry. http://www.columbian.com/news/2012/oct/17/Camas-10-year-old-home-alone-when-burglars-strike/
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 06, 2014, 10:44:26 PM
In cases of attempted burglary, where it turns out that a child is home alone, the general pattern IMO is:
1. Often an adult/adults have just left the residence. 2. The residence looks like no-one is home. 3. The burglar thinks no-one is home. 4. The burglar typically takes the further precaution of first knocking/ringing the door to confirm no-one is home. 5. Typically the child does not answer the door (sometimes because parent has told child not to answer door). 6. If the burglar sees the child, the burglar immediately abandons the burglary and flees without harming the child. 7. Sometimes the child hides.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: icabodcrane on April 08, 2014, 12:33:42 AM
In cases of attempted burglary, where it turns out that a child is home alone, the general pattern IMO is:
1. Often an adult/adults have just left the residence. 2. The residence looks like no-one is home. 3. The burglar thinks no-one is home. 4. The burglar typically takes the further precaution of first knocking/ringing the door to confirm no-one is home. 5. Typically the child does not answer the door (sometimes because parent has told child not to answer door). 6. If the burglar sees the child, the burglar immediately abandons the burglary and flees without harming the child. 7. Sometimes the child hides.
I don't have the statistics but my guess is that there are very, very, few instances of burglaries where a child is 'Home Alone' ... outside of Kevin McAllister movies
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 08, 2014, 01:32:34 AM
I don't have the statistics but my guess is that there are very, very, few instances of burglaries where a child is 'Home Alone' ... outside of Kevin McAllister movies
Agreed, t is rare to leave a young child home alone. But if one does, the risk of attempted burglary is present, just the same as if no-one is home, equal chance.
If a burglar sees adult leave, low-light inside, no sound at window, and no-one answers the precautionary knock on door, that is confirmation to burglar, certainly everyone is out, proceed.
BTW I will give a PDL example of the precautionary knock on door soon.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: John on April 08, 2014, 09:46:54 AM
As has been stated previously, burglars are not in the habit of stealing children. I find the burglary gone wrong theory to be very unlikely. If Madeleine was abducted it was done as a well planned and organised exercise. The distraction of the GNR patrol well away from the scene was in my opinion part of that plan.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Brietta on April 08, 2014, 01:26:52 PM
As has been stated previously, burglars are not in the habit of stealing children. I find the burglary gone wrong theory to be very unlikely. If Madeleine was abducted it was done as a well planned and organised exercise. The distraction of the GNR patrol well away from the scene was in my opinion part of that plan.
Like you, John, I don’t think it was a burglary gone wrong. I think it was pre-planned and we will only get the answer to what happened when the investigation is allowed to proceed.
For example, we know that a written request has been submitted to the Portuguese authorities asking for NSY access to the bank accounts of named individuals. Things have been very quiet on that front so we have no idea if the request letters are being actioned or if they are still being considered.
Until the red tape is cut it is going to be a frustrating wait for any progress to be made.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Cariad on April 08, 2014, 01:46:15 PM
Like you, John, I don’t think it was a burglary gone wrong. I think it was pre-planned and we will only get the answer to what happened when the investigation is allowed to proceed.
For example, we know that a written request has been submitted to the Portuguese authorities asking for NSY access to the bank accounts of named individuals. Things have been very quiet on that front so we have no idea if the request letters are being actioned or if they are still being considered.
Until the red tape is cut it is going to be a frustrating wait for any progress to be made.
Did the PJ ever receive the bank account info they requested back in 2007? Maybe they're waiting for that to come through first?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: jassi on April 08, 2014, 01:49:11 PM
Like you, John, I don’t think it was a burglary gone wrong. I think it was pre-planned and we will only get the answer to what happened when the investigation is allowed to proceed.
For example, we know that a written request has been submitted to the Portuguese authorities asking for NSY access to the bank accounts of named individuals. Things have been very quiet on that front so we have no idea if the request letters are being actioned or if they are still being considered.
Until the red tape is cut it is going to be a frustrating wait for any progress to be made.
It's called procedure. I'm sure you wouldn't want anyone to be taking short cuts, would you?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Brietta on April 08, 2014, 02:11:31 PM
It's called procedure. I'm sure you wouldn't want anyone to be taking short cuts, would you?
Nope.
But I would like the police to be allowed to proceed with the job as urgently as possible.
The seventh anniversary of Madeleine McCann's disappearance is approaching - so absolutely no shortcuts - but a bit of professional diligence would IMO not be amiss.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 09, 2014, 12:43:41 AM
As has been stated previously, burglars are not in the habit of stealing children...
Agreed 100%. I think burglar opened window+shutter but then was immediately disturbed and fled emptyhanded.
ETA: I already posted a real verifiable example of a child home alone, and a burglar who commences entry thinking no-one is home.
And what does the burglar do as soon as he sees the child? He runs away empty handed.
Here it is : 9-yr old girl is left home alone while the two adults go out (for a jog in that case, but could equally be dinner), burglar thinks no-one is home, enters, but as soon as he sees the child, he runs away emptyhanded.
Agreed 100%. I think burglar opened window+shutter but then was immediately disturbed and fled emptyhanded.
ETA: I already posted a real verifiable example of a child home alone, and a burglar who commences entry thinking no-one is home.
And what does the burglar do as soon as he sees the child? He runs away empty handed.
Here it is : 9-yr old girl is left home alone while the two adults go out (for a jog in that case, but could equally be dinner), burglar thinks no-one is home, enters, but as soon as he sees the child, he runs away emptyhanded. http://lostcoastoutpost.com/2013/sep/27/9-year-old/
And I personally know of a child who very recently was alone in his bedroom when he realised that burglars were in the house. He was from quite a wealthy family and had his own en suite in which he locked himself. I guess the phone line had been cut, or there wasn't a line near his bedroom.
He heard the burglars searching his room. I have no idea whether they tried the bathroom door or were aware that he was in there, but they searched every room and I cant think that they wouldn't have tried that door.
He is older . I should think 13 or 14 ... and the experience has understandably left him a nervous wreck. I will try, Pegasus, to find out more, if you wish
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 09, 2014, 01:45:02 AM
"When she exited her bedroom into the hallway she saw a man standing in the entryway of the home. She had never seen the man before. Upon making eye contact with the man he immediately fled the residence without saying anything. The nine year old girl called her mother’s cellphone and told her what happened." http://lostcoastoutpost.com/2013/sep/27/9-year-old/
What would have happened in that case if the child did not have a cellphone and was too young to use one? Would the child have hidden somewhere in the residence?
I already gave two examples of cases where a child, home alone in a burglary, hides (one in a bedroom, and one in a pantry). And thanks Sadie for your example (bathroom).
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: John on April 10, 2014, 02:17:30 PM
"When she exited her bedroom into the hallway she saw a man standing in the entryway of the home. She had never seen the man before. Upon making eye contact with the man he immediately fled the residence without saying anything. The nine year old girl called her mother’s cellphone and told her what happened." http://lostcoastoutpost.com/2013/sep/27/9-year-old/
What would have happened in that case if the child did not have a cellphone and was too young to use one? Would the child have hidden somewhere in the residence?
I already gave two examples of cases where a child, home alone in a burglary, hides (one in a bedroom, and one in a pantry). And thanks Sadie for your example (bathroom).
Burglars are by nature cowards and tend to flee rather than give any witness the opportunity to identify them. I find it very hard to believe that any burglar would have broken into apartment 5a with a view to robbing it and left empty handed unless one chooses to believe he took Madeleine as a consolation prize?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: sadie on April 10, 2014, 02:26:40 PM
Burglars are by nature cowards and tend to flee rather than give any witness the opportunity to identify them. I find it very hard to believe that any burglar would have broken into apartment 5a with a view to ribbing it and left empty handed unless one chooses to believe he took Madeleine as a consolation prize?
Agreed, no ordinary burglar is likely to have done that, but it cant be excluded.
All the men watching as noticed before hand tends to point to a carefully planned abduction, that nearly went wrong.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on April 10, 2014, 02:55:43 PM
... the men heard talking with raised voices then hushed tones. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyJwns_MTok&feature=player_embedded#t=1480
Those two men were seen at about 11pm.About an hour after the alarm. See the map at about 25:50 in the video you posted. The location is outside the northwest corner of the biggest building in town the Luz Tur buiiding. I already proposed the possible identifications of those two men, based on a statement in the files by one searcher, who having just emerged from searching inside Luz Tur, met another searcher and they had a brief discussion there, and you can even read part what was said. IMO this was a discussion between those two innocent searchers.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: sadie on April 11, 2014, 02:12:50 AM
Those two men were seen at about 11pm.About an hour after the alarm. See the map at about 25:50 in the video you posted. The location is outside the northwest corner of the biggest building in town the Luz Tur buiiding. I already proposed the possible identifications of those two men, based on a statement in the files by one searcher, who having just emerged from searching inside Luz Tur, met another searcher and they had a brief discussion there, and you can even read part what was said. IMO this was a discussion between those two innocent searchers.
8((()*/ Thank goodness for sanity
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 11, 2014, 02:28:25 AM
When two pushpins on a map are at the same place, and at about the same time, and both pins represent a brief discussion between two people, even an insane amateur like me can see they are probably the same event.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 11, 2014, 02:33:58 AM
When two pushpins on a map are at the same place, and at about the same time, and both pins represent a brief discussion between two people, even an insane amateur like me can see they are probably the same event.
Dont knock yourself. Others didn't connect !
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 11, 2014, 03:08:41 AM
Thanks, I just happened to know that the indoor shopping centre searched as described in rogatory, is at that location.
No-one however agrees with this simple connection - burglar thinks no-one is home, knocks door to confirm and gets no answer, then as he raises the shutter before he enters, the noise wakes an occupant and the burglar seeing to his shock that someone is home, flees.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 11, 2014, 10:14:39 PM
OK Peggy, so a burglar opened the shutters then fled.
Yes, and the exact simple reason is: he thought he had established no-one was home (only one table lamp on, no noise at window or door, no reply to precautionary knock at door) however as he proceeded to gain entry the shutter noise woke a sleeping occupant and he saw this just before climbing in, and shocked to find someone home, he fled. Entire paragraph IMO.
Just as someone figured out the first moments of the missing plane mystery by the novel approach of putting himself in the boots of the pilot, I imagine I am the occupant asleep in that room. I get awoken by a loud noise of shutters and see a figure outside the opened window/shutter. Yes I would be out of there and into another room. Entire paragraph IMO.
Not sure there is enough evidence etc to be anywhere near definite about that. Looking at other child-home-alone-during-attempted-burglary cases the child generally hides, for example in a cupboard. If you think it was near the sofa I would think hiding behind more likely than falling off but I don't know. Entire paragraph IMO.
Yes, and the exact simple reason is: he thought he had established no-one was home (only one table lamp on, no noise at window or door, no reply to precautionary knock at door) however as he proceeded to gain entry the shutter noise woke a sleeping occupant and he saw this just before climbing in, and shocked to find someone home, he fled
Just as someone figured out the first moments of the missing plane mystery by the novel approach of putting himself in the boots of the pilot, I imagine I am the occupant asleep in that room. I get awoken by a loud noise of shutters and see a figure outside the opened window/shutter. Yes I would be out of there and into another room.
Not sure there is enough evidence etc to be anywhere near definite about that. Looking at other child-home-alone-during-attempted-burglary cases the child generally hides, for example in a cupboard. If you think it was near the sofa I would think hiding behind more likely than falling off but I don't know.
You are jumping far ahead. I prefer to go more slowly. What time period are you asking about?
Pegasus, I think you should make it clear that what you are saying is just YOUR theory and quite likely not correct, ,
Dont you?
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 12, 2014, 02:44:14 AM
Pegasus, I think you should make it clear that what you are saying is just YOUR theory and quite likely not correct, , Dont you?
Yes it is nothing but my amateur opinion. As "quite likely not correct" is your opinion. We both forgot to use the "IMO". I have edited my post ..... 8(0(*
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Brietta on April 12, 2014, 03:47:35 PM
IMO the relevance of the burglaries illustrates how easily access could be gained to the apartments, and doesn’t presume that a burglar took Madeleine.
As far as I know, with few exceptions these burglaries were carried out without being witnessed, even when a plasma TV was stolen.
In the 17 days before she disappeared, there were two incidents in the McCanns' block, one burglary and one attempted burglary. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25945924 Expat Pamela Fenn, 73, told them she disturbed a burglar at her apartment about three weeks before Maddie vanished. She is now to give a formal statement to Portuguese officers. http://www.mccannfiles.com/id331.html
It has also been noted that in most cases keys seem to have been used.
There was no sign of forced entry. "I was convinced they had a key to get inside. I spoke to my neighbours, many of them expats, and I’d say around 90% of them had experienced the same thing… valuable items going missing out of their apartments.” http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/madeleine-mccann-suspects-cops-want-3095609
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: John on April 12, 2014, 08:57:30 PM
Ocean Club Resort had a duty of care towards their guests, something which was most definitely lacking. They knew about the burglaries, the break-ins and the strangers wandering about the grounds during the day and night but they dud sweet f all about it. That for me was irresponsible!
They put commercial considerations before the safety of their guests!
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: sadie on April 12, 2014, 09:57:33 PM
Yes it is nothing but my amateur opinion. As "quite likely not correct" is your opinion. We both forgot to use the "IMO". I have edited my post ..... 8(0(*
Cheers, Pegasus. That is fine now.
I dont always say IMO, but I think I always use words like "! think" or "seemingly" or "it appears that" which make it clear that I am not certain.
I hope I do anyhow ! 8**8:/: I intend to.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: Cariad on April 12, 2014, 10:02:41 PM
Ocean Club Resort had a duty of care towards their guests, something which was most definitely lacking. They knew about the burglaries, the break-ins and the strangers wandering about the grounds during the day and night but they dud sweet f all about it. That for me was irresponsible!
They put commercial considerations before the safety of their guests!
No matter how true that statement is, Madeleine was not the responsibility of the OC. She was the responsibility of her parents who are doctors and well aware of he dangers that can befall children left unsupervised but they did sweet f all about it. That for me was irresponsible.
They put there social lives before the safety of their children.
Title: Re: Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?
Post by: pegasus on April 12, 2014, 10:08:23 PM
A bit of modus operandi. Even if an apartment looks like no-one is home, IMO a burglar may knock at the door just to make sure. Most times when it looks like no-one is home, there really is no-one home, so the knock goes unanswered, and entry and burgalry commence IMO. However for this the burglar needs a cover story IMO, just in case he gets surprised and someone does answer the door. Something simple like "oh sorry I thought the so and so family was staying here". This may possibly be what happened IMO at the apartment directly above 5G on 16 April 2007 (source: partly casefiles, partly crimewatch). There was a knock at the door, asking for someone who isn't staying there. Soon afterwards those tourists did go out, and the place was burgled.
IMO it is likely that the very first directly relevant physical event on 3 May 2007 at 5A, was that during dinner while the apartment looked and sounded like no-one was home, someone knocked at the north door and got no response. But that is just one person''s amateur opinion and it is possible it may be wrong.