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Disappeared and Abducted Children and Young Adults => Madeleine McCann (3) disappeared from her parent's holiday apartment at Ocean Club, Praia da Luz, Portugal on 3 May 2007. No trace of her has ever been found. => Topic started by: faithlilly on January 03, 2017, 11:45:35 AM

Title: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: faithlilly on January 03, 2017, 11:45:35 AM
It has been claimed on this forum that the McCanns could only have been involved in their daughter's disappearance if a series of improbable events had taken place over the night of the 3rd. While I agree that a series of improbable events did occur on the 3rd and beyond I'm not sure they support the abduction theory.

A) Jez seeing or hearing neither Tanner or Tannerman in a quiet street.
B) The children's bedroom window being open for no discernible reason.
C) The unresponsive state of the twins.
D) That medical assistance was not sought for the twins even though their parents suspected they had been sedated.
E) Mr Smith's 60-80% identification of Smithman as Gerry.
F) Oldfield not checking properly if Madeleine was in bed although, according to his wife, he did check in the parent's bedroom.
G) The change in checking routines from previous nights.
H) Alert by Eddie the cadaver dog in the McCann's bedroom but not by Keela.

I'm sure more can be added as the discussion proceeds.
Title: Re: Improbable Events
Post by: carlymichelle on January 03, 2017, 02:11:39 PM
the mccans  still going out even though maddie  told them that she  and  sean had bene crying??
Title: Re: Improbable Events
Post by: G-Unit on January 03, 2017, 02:30:00 PM
The change of routine on 3rd when the children were taken straight back to the apartment after tea.
Dave's obscure evidence. Was he in 5A at 5pm with the parents and Madeleine or did he visit at 6.40 pm?
The wide variations as to the time the men returned to their apartments after tennis.
Gerry's uncertainty as to which door he used when checking.

Title: Re: Improbable Events
Post by: ferryman on January 03, 2017, 02:51:31 PM
Stuart Prior phoning the FSS to berate them on the subject of the PJ's powers of arrest.
Title: Re: Improbable Events
Post by: ferryman on January 03, 2017, 02:53:01 PM
Amaral contradicting Prior on interpretation of the forensic results.
Title: Re: Improbable Events
Post by: ferryman on January 03, 2017, 02:54:43 PM
English police officers wearing findMadeleine armbands until they realised how compelling the case against the McCanns was.
Title: Re: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: ferryman on January 03, 2017, 02:56:22 PM
Mark Harrison being duped about the "enhanced" victim recovery dog.
Title: Re: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: Angelo222 on January 03, 2017, 02:56:32 PM
It has been claimed on this forum that the McCanns could only have been involved in their daughter's disappearance if a series of improbable events had taken place over the night of the 3rd. While I agree that a series of improbable events did occur on the 3rd and beyond I'm not sure they support the abduction theory.

A) Jez seeing or hearing neither Tanner or Tannerman in a quiet street.
B) The children's bedroom window being open for no discernible reason.
C) The unresponsive state of the twins.
D) That medical assistance was not sought for the twins even though their parents suspected they had been sedated.
E) Mr Smith's 60-80% identification of Smithman as Gerry.
F) Oldfield not checking properly if Madeleine was in bed although, according to his wife, he did check in the parent's bedroom.
G) The change in checking routines from previous nights.
H) Alert by Eddie the cadaver dog in the McCann's bedroom but not by Keela.

I'm sure more can be added as the discussion proceeds.

Before this goes any further and since an improbable event is one which is unlikely but not impossible I suggest the op is amended slightly.  For example the unresponsive state of the twins was an actual event spotted by several witnesses.

You could add that Madeleine died in 5a as an improbable event since that is unlikely but not impossible?
Title: Re: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: misty on January 03, 2017, 05:08:20 PM
None of the improbable events listed can rule out abduction.
All the events occurred so why are they improbable?
Title: Re: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: faithlilly on January 03, 2017, 05:13:10 PM
None of the improbable events listed can rule out abduction.
All the events occurred so why are they improbable?

Singly I agree but collectively? What was it Kate said about coincidences?
Title: Re: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: Alfie on January 03, 2017, 05:25:00 PM
Singly I agree but collectively? What was it Kate said about coincidences?
Some of your so-called improbable events are nothing to do with the McCanns per se (eg A & F) and G was a collective decision I believe so exactly what is it these factors point to, in your opinion?
Title: Re: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 03, 2017, 05:53:34 PM
Some of your so-called improbable events are nothing to do with the McCanns per se (eg A & F) and G was a collective decision I believe so exactly what is it these factors point to, in your opinion?
We weren't allowed to call people liars but I'm tempted.
Title: Re: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: faithlilly on January 03, 2017, 06:10:42 PM
Some of your so-called improbable events are nothing to do with the McCanns per se (eg A & F) and G was a collective decision I believe so exactly what is it these factors point to, in your opinion?

The events are all related.
Title: Re: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: Alfie on January 03, 2017, 06:28:36 PM
The events are all related.
Sounds like you're suggesting that some or all of the Tapas Group are involved in collusion in a cover up to me.
Title: Re: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: Lace on January 03, 2017, 06:31:06 PM
Mr. Smith thought Gerry looked like the man he saw 'by the way he carried his child.'   Come on!!!
Title: Re: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: ferryman on January 03, 2017, 08:04:47 PM
Martin Grime not having the first clue who might be in possession of the Renault Scenic, despite the find Madeleine stickers on the rear window.
Title: Re: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: slartibartfast on January 03, 2017, 09:23:30 PM
Martin Grime not having the first clue who might be in possession of the Renault Scenic, despite the find Madeleine stickers on the rear window.

How many stickers were distributed in PdL?
Title: Re: Improbable Events (Unlikely but not impossible)
Post by: misty on January 03, 2017, 09:28:43 PM
How many stickers were distributed in PdL?

Obviously not enough, as the other 8 cars belonging to Algarve citizens weren't displaying one.