What is this? "You didn't realise the three scenarios had to add up to 100%"

[jassi]

As I read it Jassi's buckets just cover how Madeleine got out of the apartment not her fate after that.

Quite right.

We have no idea what happened after that. But as the McCanns say, there is no proof that she is not alive

[Robittybob1]

Quite right.

We have no idea what happened after that. But as the McCanns say, there is no proof that she is not alive

there is no proof that she is not alive.  Since not alive = dead
there is no proof that she is  dead.
there is no proof that she died.

[barrier]

there is no proof that she is not alive.  Since not alive = dead
there is no proof that she is  dead.
there is no proof that she died.

Not much progress for £12 million then is it.

[Robittybob1]

Not much progress for £12 million then is it.

Foreign country
Language and cultural differences.
Hundreds of holiday makers and hundreds of staff.
Unknown population in the town

Very difficult case. 

[Brietta]

Not much progress for £12 million then is it.

You may think so.

I prefer to await the conclusion of the investigation before passing judgement on how money has been spent in the pursuit of justice.
Bearing in mind that at the time Madeleine was not the only British blonde little girl who suffered at the hands of a criminal while on holiday in Portugal.

[barrier]

Foreign country
Language and cultural differences.
Hundreds of holiday makers and hundreds of staff.
Unknown population in the town

Very difficult case.

Not forgetting its not their case.

[Robittybob1]

Not forgetting its not their case.

The general consensus is that the PJ bungled the investigation.  So they say.  I think it needed a lot more resources into the investigation right from the start.  Maybe Portugal does not have the resources to begin with.

[barrier]

The general consensus is that the PJ bungled the investigation.  So they say.  I think it needed a lot more resources into the investigation right from the start.  Maybe Portugal does not have the resources to begin with.

Flooding it with upwards of 30 officers at one time now down to 4,shows numbers are meaningless,evidence is key,if its not there then there's nowt to be done about it.Seeing as the thread is about odds,what are they that there'll be no conclusion with a conviction?

[Robittybob1]

Flooding it with upwards of 30 officers at one time now down to 4,shows numbers are meaningless,evidence is key,if its not there then there's nowt to be done about it.

I'm talking from the very first night, not what has to be put into it years later.

[barrier]

I'm talking from the very first night, not what has to be put into it years later.

I would imagine even in this country a large team is not assembled on the first reports of a missing child.

[Brietta]

The general consensus is that the PJ bungled the investigation.  So they say.  I think it needed a lot more resources into the investigation right from the start.  Maybe Portugal does not have the resources to begin with.

Horses for courses.

I believe at the time in question the Porto Policia Judiciaria had officers in place who were experts in the field of child protection and all that entails.

Amaral and his team were thief takers whose main prior venture into missing children was the disappearance of Joana Cipriano.

[Robittybob1]

I would imagine even in this country a large team is not assembled on the first reports of a missing child.

All I know is that there would be a problem resourcing an investigation into an abduction case. Sometimes I think an abduction must be the easiest crime to get away with.  You've gone to another country before the police decide it is an abduction.

[Brietta]

All I know is that there would be a problem resourcing an investigation into an abduction case. Sometimes I think an abduction must be the easiest crime to get away with.  You've gone to another country before the police decide it is an abduction.

Many abducted children have been recovered worldwide as a result of Amber Alerts being activated ...

Snip
February 16, 2017Police network
On Wednesday February 15th, AMBER Alert Europe provided a training on missing children to the Portuguese Police at its headquarters in Lisbon. The session was also broadcasted online, enabling 64 police officers from 20 districts to take part as well.

The training session was organised by AMBER Alert Europe’s Portuguese member, Associação Portuguesa e Crianças Desaparecidas (APCD), in cooperation with Portugal’s national police force, the National Republican Guard (GNR).

Charlie Hedges, AMBER Alert Europe’s Police Expert, conducted the training and focused on how to quickly identify the level of risk in missing children cases. A quick risk assessment is crucial to determine the correct response, especially when a child’s life is in immediate danger.
https://www.amberalert.eu/amber-alert-europe-provides-training-portuguese-police/

[Miss Taken Identity]

Quite right.

We have no idea what happened after that. But as the McCanns say, there is no proof that she is not alive

...Or came to any harm