"We must reconstruct Maddie’s fateful night" says former Portuguese police chief.

[sadie]

I checked back as well, Sadie.

I don't recall finding anything for Lagos - just Sagres and Faro.

The issue at the time concerned the 2pm sunny photo of Madeleine by the pool, which certain researchers asserted couldn't have happened because of the supposed bad weather at that time in PdL that day. 

Both SIL and I were intrigued and I seem to recall we shared resources at the time as we'd sometimes found different ones.

Whereupon Blonk accused me of "historical revisionism". :)

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=6981.msg312452#msg312452

That whole thread is 105 pages long, if anyone has the energy to skim back through it...

Parts of it are quite amusing, though.
http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=6981.0

In Blonk's own words:

1. I just used 'Google' and searched 'Weather''Reports''Algarve'. You can do the same. You'll find exactly what I did all along the Algarve: Sat/Sun: WARM, SUNNY >>> Mon/Tues/Weds/Thurs: COOLER, LOTS OF CLOUD, WINDIER, SHOWERS
http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=6981.msg311161#msg311161

More weather discussion bits, here onwards:
http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=6981.msg311821#msg311821

Thank you for looking Carana, but I found a site for Lagos as posted earlier. 

I posted the two sites that gave the Historical weather individually for Lagos and Faro and it clearly said which each was at the top of each webpage. 

As a quick easy check that the two websites give different data it is only necessary to check the weather for yesterday (26th Jan 2018), but you will have to act quickly because this data will probably be gone via the easy method of finding anytime soon, as todays weather replaces it.  {The other method is laborious and I have just wasted about 3 hours trying to work it out}

N.B.  I have only shown the top little bit.  There are comprehensive records of various data on each page, but I dont know how to post them

Here goes


Lagos 26th Jan 2018

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/lagos-weather-history/faro/pt.aspx = Lagos weather

Fri 26th Jan, 2018
Partly cloudy
Partly cloudy
Max:
14°c
Min:
10°c
Rain: 0.00 mm
Sunrise: 07:42 AM
Sunset: 05:53 PM
Moonrise: 01:12 PM
Moonset: 02:12 AM



Faro airport, 26th Jan, 2018

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/algarve-weather-history/pt.aspx = Faro airport weather

Fri 26th Jan, 2018

Partly cloudy
Max:
15°c
Min:
9°c
Rain: 0.00 mm
Sunrise: 07:39 AM
Sunset: 05:50 PM
Moonrise: 01:09 PM
Moonset: 02:09 AM


Anyway, the above proves that there is a weather station at Lagos

Lagos is less than 4 miles away from 5A



On both these sites historical weather is available, day to day, from before Madeleine vanished.  It is quite laborious, but I will run thru the method tomorrow if requested.

[slartibartfast]

Thank you for looking Carana, but I found a site for Lagos as posted earlier. 

I posted the two sites that gave the Historical weather individually for Lagos and Faro and it clearly said which each was at the top of each webpage. 

As a quick easy check that the two websites give different data it is only necessary to check the weather for yesterday (26th Jan 2018), but you will have to act quickly because this data will probably be gone via the easy method of finding anytime soon, as todays weather replaces it.  {The other method is laborious and I have just wasted about 3 hours trying to work it out}

N.B.  I have only shown the top little bit.  There are comprehensive records of various data on each page, but I dont know how to post them

Here goes


Lagos 26th Jan 2018

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/lagos-weather-history/faro/pt.aspx = Lagos weather

Fri 26th Jan, 2018
Partly cloudy
Partly cloudy
Max:
14°c
Min:
10°c
Rain: 0.00 mm
Sunrise: 07:42 AM
Sunset: 05:53 PM
Moonrise: 01:12 PM
Moonset: 02:12 AM



Faro airport, 26th Jan, 2018

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/algarve-weather-history/pt.aspx = Faro airport weather

Fri 26th Jan, 2018

Partly cloudy
Max:
15°c
Min:
9°c
Rain: 0.00 mm
Sunrise: 07:39 AM
Sunset: 05:50 PM
Moonrise: 01:09 PM
Moonset: 02:09 AM


Anyway, the above proves that there is a weather station at Lagos

Lagos is less than 4 miles away from 5A



On both these sites historical weather is available, day to day, from before Madeleine vanished.  It is quite laborious, but I will run thru the method tomorrow if requested.

I would be interested in understanding how you think it proves there is a weather station at Lagos?

[Carana]

Thank you for looking Carana, but I found a site for Lagos as posted earlier. 

I posted the two sites that gave the Historical weather individually for Lagos and Faro and it clearly said which each was at the top of each webpage. 

As a quick easy check that the two websites give different data it is only necessary to check the weather for yesterday (26th Jan 2018), but you will have to act quickly because this data will probably be gone via the easy method of finding anytime soon, as todays weather replaces it.  {The other method is laborious and I have just wasted about 3 hours trying to work it out}

N.B.  I have only shown the top little bit.  There are comprehensive records of various data on each page, but I dont know how to post them

Here goes


Lagos 26th Jan 2018

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/lagos-weather-history/faro/pt.aspx = Lagos weather

Fri 26th Jan, 2018
Partly cloudy
Partly cloudy
Max:
14°c
Min:
10°c
Rain: 0.00 mm
Sunrise: 07:42 AM
Sunset: 05:53 PM
Moonrise: 01:12 PM
Moonset: 02:12 AM



Faro airport, 26th Jan, 2018

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/algarve-weather-history/pt.aspx = Faro airport weather

Fri 26th Jan, 2018

Partly cloudy
Max:
15°c
Min:
9°c
Rain: 0.00 mm
Sunrise: 07:39 AM
Sunset: 05:50 PM
Moonrise: 01:09 PM
Moonset: 02:09 AM


Anyway, the above proves that there is a weather station at Lagos

Lagos is less than 4 miles away from 5A



On both these sites historical weather is available, day to day, from before Madeleine vanished.  It is quite laborious, but I will run thru the method tomorrow if requested.

Sadie, there may well be one now, but I have never been able to find historical records for even Lagos going back to April-May 2007, let alone PdL.

I tried on the site you cited, but entering 3 May 2007 just tells me: "The selected date should be in the past."

The main point for me was trying to verify if Richard Hall's allegations (largely fed by a certain "research" group had any basis in reality: i.e., that the "last photo" couldn't have been taken on 3 May, thereby supporting the died-on-Sunday/Monday theory.

What I did find were historical records for Sagres (to the west) with 11.5 hours of sunshine and Faro (to the east) with less than 1 hour of sunshine.

If a front had come in from the west on 2 May, it would explain the rain in PdL that all the witness questioned remembered on that day and that the weather had "sunny intervals" on 3 May with rainy / stormy weather moving on towards the east.

Unless verifiable evidence turns up that 3 May had no sunshine at the time the photo was taken, then that allegation will stay in my rather large myth box.

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=6981.msg311821#msg311821

[ShiningInLuz]

I would be interested in understanding how you think it proves there is a weather station at Lagos?

It doesn't.

I can provide historical forecasts for Luz, but there isn't a weather station in Luz.

I can provide historical forecasts for Portelas, but there is no weather station in Portelas.

I can provide historical forecasts for Lagos, but there isn't a weather station in Lagos.

If Carana is correct and the wind was westerly, then the best predictor is Sagres.

From memory, on Wed 2 May Sagres recorded a fair degree of rain. Statements or Kate's book record that in Luz the morning tennis was called off but resumed later that day.  While in Faro, the rain recorded was next to zero.  The rain lessened from west to east.

Now I need to stick an IMO.  Personally, I have no doubt that the Last Photo was taken at lunchtime on 3 May.  I have seen nothing to doubt its provenance for a second.

[misty]

(http://aangirfan.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/madeleine-mccann-kray-twins-margaret.html)
"Dear Mr Bennett,

"I am in receipt of your letter of 22 July regarding Madeleine McCann.

"I am sure you would appreciate that it would not be appropriate for me to comment too much, as we do not know each other, and I have no idea what your connection to the case is.

"However, I would also not want further conspiracy theories to fester by simply ignoring your letter.

"Therefore, I can confirm that whatever information I had (including some photos of my sons taken on the day Madeleine disappeared, which showed her in the background) was passed both to the police and to the McCanns at the time.

"Having been in Portugal at the time of Madeleine’s disappearance and seen all of the events first hand, there is not one shred of doubt in my mind that the events as reported were correct.

"In fact one of the most terrible parts of this tragedy is that there are people out there who are questioning this, just adding further to the nightmare that the McCann family have suffered. I cannot imagine anything crueller.

"I’m afraid I won’t enter into further correspondence on this matter with you.

"Yours sincerely,

"Philip Edmonds"

=======================================================

If the police have copies of the Edmonds holiday photos, then both the weather conditions & Madeleine being alive on 3rd May have no doubt long since verified.

[sadie]

I would be interested in understanding how you think it proves there is a weather station at Lagos?

Er?  Come on Slarti

So they Magicked the Lagos figures out of the air, did they ?

[slartibartfast]

Er?  Come on Slarti

So they Magicked the Lagos figures out of the air, did they ?

It’s a label on a website.

[sadie]

It doesn't.

I can provide historical forecasts for Luz, but there isn't a weather station in Luz.

I can provide historical forecasts for Portelas, but there is no weather station in Portelas.

I can provide historical forecasts for Lagos, but there isn't a weather station in Lagos.

If Carana is correct and the wind was westerly, then the best predictor is Sagres.

From memory, on Wed 2 May Sagres recorded a fair degree of rain. Statements or Kate's book record that in Luz the morning tennis was called off but resumed later that day.  While in Faro, the rain recorded was next to zero.  The rain lessened from west to east.

Now I need to stick an IMO.  Personally, I have no doubt that the Last Photo was taken at lunchtime on 3 May.  I have seen nothing to doubt its provenance for a second.

I have never said that there is a weather station in Luz, but there must be one in Lagos, just 3.5 miles away, for them to have produced the data . 

Or are you suggesting that "worldweatheronline" is making it up?

[John]

I have never said that there is a weather station in Luz, but there must be one in Lagos, just 3.5 miles away, for them to have produced the data . 

Or are you suggesting that "worldweatheronline" is making it up?

Unfortunately Sadie, the records on the two sites you refer to only commenced on 1st July 2008 and since the day being looked at is 3rd May 2007 then they are pretty unhelpful on this occasion. 

[sadie]

Sadie, there may well be one now, but I have never been able to find historical records for even Lagos going back to April-May 2007, let alone PdL.

I tried on the site you cited, but entering 3 May 2007 just tells me: "The selected date should be in the past."


The main point for me was trying to verify if Richard Hall's allegations (largely fed by a certain "research" group had any basis in reality: i.e., that the "last photo" couldn't have been taken on 3 May, thereby supporting the died-on-Sunday/Monday theory.

What I did find were historical records for Sagres (to the west) with 11.5 hours of sunshine and Faro (to the east) with less than 1 hour of sunshine.

If a front had come in from the west on 2 May, it would explain the rain in PdL that all the witness questioned remembered on that day and that the weather had "sunny intervals" on 3 May with rainy / stormy weather moving on towards the east.

Unless verifiable evidence turns up that 3 May had no sunshine at the time the photo was taken, then that allegation will stay in my rather large myth box.

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=6981.msg311821#msg311821

Yeah the data has been got at .... and removed, but it obviously must have been thetre or they would not have ioffered the date and beyond.

However by laborously putting various words into the search on this forum I found a version of at least part of the original posted.  Unfortunately I failed to put the one website addie down.

I may have the data kept on my old computers but one is completely dead and I dont know how to connect the others up.  I have gone thru 5 decent computers on this wretched case

Anyway this is the part of the forum that has some of the details both for Lagos anad Faro on the intersting dates.  I had done three days, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th of May 2007 ...  tides, wind speeds etc there 

... and they came from a bona fide source (as bona fide as any source can be on the internet)

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1986.msg63527#msg63527    Three or four sections including my thoughts at the time

[sadie]

Unfortunately Sadie, the records on the two sites you refer to only commenced on 1st July 2008 and since the day being looked at is 3rd May 2007 then they are pretty unhelpful on this occasion.

They go back beyond 2007, John.  See my last post at the bottom

You saw my posts at the time.  why are you not acknowledging them?  do you not like them for some reason?  I dont understand that.

[sadie]

OK, I am feeling quuite angry and upset at the disbelief which isn't warranted.  I do not tell lies, like some do .... and am proud of my integrity

I am reproducing the posts here (copies of the originals).  There is a whole thread there.

From:   http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1986.msg63527#msg63527

Weather tides Moon, natural light etc near Pdl

PLEASE ALLOW ME TO POST ALL FOUR SECTIONS BEFORE COMMENTING.  Thankyou

FACTS

Part 1  Sunset and the Moon

2nd May 2007 ~ Full Moon

Sunrise, 3rd May 2007 was 6.38am West

Sunset, 3rd May 2007 was 8.25pm West

The days were lengthening by about one minute in the morning and one minute in the evening, so the 4th May had sunrise at 6.37am West

Sadies thoughts:  There was a full moon on May 2nd 2007.  So the night would be a little lighter than normal on May 3rd. 

However like the sun, the moon rises in the east and sets in the west.  It takes a somewhat similar route across the skies.  I am not sure of moon rise time, but had it risen, it would have been low in the eastern sky at 9.15 pm and at 10pm.

i)  Interestingly 5A car park had high trees to its eastern side. 
ii)  The little cove (beach) that ?bundleman might have been walking towards (Smiths sighting) also had high rocks to its eastern side. 

As the moon would have been low in the sky, neither place would have been getting any direct moonlight.   They would both be dark spots

Part 2


Tides:


3rd May:

High 3.35am West ........Low 9.33am West

High 3.49pm West ........Low 9.53pm West

Temperature at 10pm = 60*F (16*C) on 3rd May  [but gusty]


4th May
High 4.07am West ........Low 10.02am West

All the above conditions were for nearby Lagos  ( about 3.5 miles away)


Sadies thoughts: 
Seems, to me that ?bundleman had just missed the best time for sailing i.e. with  the tide gently going out and in full darkness apart from some indirect moonlight
   
Was this because JT's witnessing the abduction frightened the wits out of the getaway car driver, so he did not connect with bundleman? The timing would have been perfect at 9.15 – 9.30 pm ... full darkness and tide about to turn , but still gently going out

All the above conditions were for Lagos (3.5 miles away approx)

Part 3


All the following conditions were for Faro airport  which is about 50+ miles away (80+km). The airport is right by the sea front


Barometric pressures

2nd May Barometric pressure was dropping quite rapidly (it seems to me) - I have little knowledge in this area - does this mean a storm/poor sea conditions?

1014hPa (29.95 Hg) at midnight, dropping to 1006hPa (29.7 Hg) at 5.30pm
Wind speeds: Ave.27km/hr.....Max. 39km/hr
Visibility: 10km, Cloudy early evening. Temp at 10pm: 57*F (14*C)


3rd May Barometric pressure rising

1009 hPa (29.8Hg) at midnight, rising to 1013hPa (29.92 Hg) at 10.00pm

Wind speeds: ave. 16 km/hr..... Max. 30km/hr [20.1 mph]

Visibility: 10Km, Clear sky. Temp at 10pm: 60*F (16*C)



4th May Barometric Pressure rising

1013 hPa (29.8 Hg) at midnight, rising to 1016 hPa (30Hg) in evening, and still steadily rising through the 5th May

Dont know whether any of the above means anything to you? Ocean sailors might understand the statistics better than i do.

Part 4


My analysis

With my limited understanding it seems as though:

May 2nd would not have been too good a day for the abduction, because with the falling barometer the sea might have been a bit rough for a small boat to leave the tiny rocky cove after dark.

If the route out was via a small boat from that rocky beach/ cove, then the best time to leave would have been just before low tide on May 3rd , when the tides were slowing ready for the changing tides.  The best time for the tides would be a little before 9.53 pm, whilst it was dark with the moon hardly risen. 

This was especially so,  as both pertinent places (OC and the little beach) had high light barriers to their eastern ends … so no direct moonlight at either place at that time.

The abduction was about 9.15 = 9.20 pm.  Perfect timing, both for tidal conditions and darkness imo. 

And also for the pick up boat to sail on to the disembarkation port, to arrive just before dawn …

…. I have made an educated guess at that port.  Later, maybe……



An abduction on May 4th might have been considered dicy, because holiday makers often change their routine on the last evening of a holiday




In my opinion these guys knew the McCanns routine, they thought about the weather, the tides, the moon, the necessary sailing time to reach port by dawn   and about not doing it on the final day.

Seems pretty professional to me.

Of course if they were not using a little boat from that rocky beach, then the whole equation changes..........!!

www.wunderground.com/history/Faroairport

Then you, John, said

A poor internet connection is a real bugbear Sadie, does this always happen where you are at the moment?

I will get a chance to study the detail you have produced later this morning but in the meantime excellent work.   

Have you  forgotten it?

[slartibartfast]

OK, I am feeling quuite angry and upset at the disbelief which isn't warranted.  I do not tell lies, like some do .... and am proud of my integrity

I am reproducing the posts here (copies of the originals).  There is a whole thread there.

From:   http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1986.msg63527#msg63527





Then you, John, said

Have you  forgotten it?

How were the currents that night?